2015 Cotton Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Alabama vs. Michigan State

Goodyear Cotton Bowl -- CFP SEMIFINAL

No. 3 Michigan State Spartans (12-1) vs. No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1)

December 31 ( 8:00 PM ET, ESPN ), AT&T Stadium, Arlington

Spread: Alabama -9.5

S&P+ Projection: Alabama 30.3, Michigan State 19.3

Team Sites: The Only Colors, Roll 'Bama Roll

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.}

_{Statistical profiles index.}

_{Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	Michigan State		Alabama
S&P+ (Rk)	9		1
Category	Michigan State offense	Alabama defense	Alabama offense	Michigan State defense
Yards per play (Rk)	5.42 (62)	4.00 (2)	5.53 (55)	5.15 (52)
Yards per game (Rk)	400.0 (64)	261.8 (3)	422.6 (44)	340.5 (23)
Points per possession (Rk)	2.71 (28)	1.04 (2)	2.53 (41)	1.75 (36)
Category	Michigan State offense	Alabama defense	Alabama offense	Michigan State defense
S&P+ (Rk)	36.5 (26)	7.6 (1)	36.3 (27)	18.8 (13)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	94.6 (98)	157.3 (1)	118.7 (13)	116.3 (21)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	115.8 (30)	155.7 (1)	117.5 (28)	126.6 (10)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	94.0 (99)	153.0 (1)	115.3 (21)	126.1 (4)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	128.7 (12)	154.1 (3)	116.3 (36)	107.1 (50)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	102.3 (71)	158.4 (2)	120.3 (21)	119.6 (25)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	100.4 (72)	174.6 (1)	112.8 (36)	133.2 (7)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	111.6 (41)	151.2 (2)	127.6 (11)	102.6 (62)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	109.8 (38)	121.6 (13)	112.0 (29)	110.0 (37)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

Michigan State

1. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 34 defense vs. No. 63 offense)
2. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 3 defense vs. No. 29 offense)
3. Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 13 defense vs. No. 35 offense)
4. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 9 defense vs. No. 30 offense)
5. Redzone S&P+ (No. 29 defense vs. No. 48 offense)

Alabama

1. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 1 defense vs. No. 113 offense)
2. First Down S&P+ (No. 2 defense vs. No. 109 offense)
3. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 2 defense vs. No. 109 offense)
4. Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 1 defense vs. No. 99 offense)
5. Rushing S&P+ (No. 1 defense vs. No. 98 offense)

Five Factors

Category	Michigan State offense	Alabama defense	Alabama offense	Michigan State defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.24 (76)	1.27 (74)	1.23 (80)	1.22 (52)
EFFICIENCY	43.1% (48)	27.9% (1)	44.2% (35)	39.2% (51)
FIELD POSITION	32.8 (17)	27.9 (28)	34.0 (6)	27.7 (26)
FINISHING DRIVES	5.3 (21)	3.9 (18)	4.8 (69)	4.2 (29)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: Michigan State 5.46 (22) Alabama 12.87 (2)		ACTUAL Michigan State 16 (3) Alabama 7 (25)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Michigan State offense	Alabama offense
Adj. Pace	0.2 (57)	2.2 (38)
Plays per game	73.8 (62)	76.4 (43)
Possessions per game	11.8 (120)	13.5 (41)
Std. Downs Run Rate	68.7% (19)	62.6% (48)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	22.6% (121)	40.9% (25)
% of solo tackles	62.1% (126)	75.5% (58)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Michigan State defense	Alabama defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	57.2% (97)	54.2% (116)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	26.4% (121)	25.0% (123)
Overall Havoc Rate	18.9% (21)	23.1% (1)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	12.3% (15)	14.7% (2)
DB Havoc Rate	6.6% (53)	8.5% (13)
PD to INC	34.1% (52)	38.9% (19)

When Michigan State has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Michigan State Offense		Alabama Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	94.0	99	153.0	1	Alabama big
Standard Downs Success Rate	45.8	78	32.1	1	Alabama big
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.06	86	0.98	61	Alabama
SD Line Yards per Carry	2.78	82	2.28	7	Alabama big
SD Sack Rate	4.3%	54	8.6%	4	Alabama big

Passing Downs

	Michigan State Offense		Alabama Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	128.7	12	154.1	3
Passing Downs Success Rate	37.5	17	22.1	6	Alabama
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.71	85	1.87	32	Alabama big
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.28	59	2.65	16	Alabama
PD Sack Rate	4.1%	13	13.2%	5

When Alabama has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Alabama Offense		Michigan State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	115.3	21	126.1	4	Michigan State
Standard Downs Success Rate	51.2	23	43.2	44	Alabama
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.05	90	1.08	11	Michigan State big
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.08	36	2.63	31
SD Sack Rate	3%	26	7.2%	12	Michigan State

Passing Downs

	Alabama Offense		Michigan State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	116.3	36	107.1	50	Alabama
Passing Downs Success Rate	28.5	83	31.3	74
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.99	18	1.64	97	Alabama big
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.83	14	3.36	78	Alabama big
PD Sack Rate	7.2%	63	8.8%	34	Michigan State

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Michigan State	Connor Cook	6'4, 220	SR	210	369	2921	24	5	56.9%	14	3.7%	7.4
Michigan State	Tyler O'Connor	6'3, 222	JR	13	24	133	2	1	54.2%	2	7.7%	4.8
Michigan State	Damion Terry	6'3, 235	SO	2	7	15	0	0	28.6%	1	12.5%	0.4
Alabama	Jake Coker	6'5, 232	SR	222	338	2489	17	8	65.7%	18	5.1%	6.6
Alabama	Cooper Bateman	6'3, 220	SO	37	51	291	1	2	72.5%	1	1.9%	5.6
Alabama	Alec Morris	6'3, 233	JR	1	1	6	0	0	100.0%	0	0.0%	6.0

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
Michigan State	LJ Scott	RB	6'0, 233	FR	141	691	11	4.9	4.9	34.8%
Michigan State	Madre London	RB	6'1, 216	FR	114	489	3	4.3	4.7	32.5%
Michigan State	Gerald Holmes	RB	6'0, 216	SO	108	534	8	4.9	3.9	41.7%
Michigan State	Connor Cook	QB	6'4, 220	SR	31	168	0	5.4	4.2	41.9%
Alabama	Derrick Henry	RB	6'3, 242	JR	339	1986	23	5.9	5.5	43.7%
Alabama	Kenyan Drake	RB	6'1, 210	SR	72	347	1	4.8	3.9	47.2%
Alabama	Damien Harris	RB	5'11, 205	FR	45	155	1	3.4	4.6	28.9%
Alabama	Jake Coker	QB	6'5, 232	SR	43	241	2	5.6	3.8	53.5%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
Michigan State	Aaron Burbridge	WR	6'1, 208	SR	138	80	1219	7	15.2	8.8	58.0%
Michigan State	Macgarrett Kings Jr.	WR	5'10, 192	SR	76	38	492	5	13.0	6.5	50.0%
Michigan State	R.J. Shelton	WR	5'11, 195	JR	59	41	484	4	11.8	8.2	69.5%
Michigan State	Josiah Price	TE	6'4, 252	JR	31	19	228	6	12.0	7.4	61.3%
Michigan State	Jamal Lyles	TE	6'3, 263	JR	15	8	133	1	16.6	8.9	53.3%
Michigan State	Paul Lang	TE	6'5, 260	SR	15	10	112	0	11.2	7.5	66.7%
Michigan State	Gerald Holmes	RB	6'0, 216	SO	10	8	82	0	10.3	8.2	80.0%
Alabama	Calvin Ridley	WR	6'1, 188	FR	105	75	893	5	11.9	8.5	71.4%
Alabama	ArDarius Stewart	WR	6'1, 204	SO	88	54	600	4	11.1	6.8	61.4%
Alabama	Richard Mullaney	WR	6'3, 208	SR	53	34	308	5	9.1	5.8	64.2%
Alabama	O.J. Howard	TE	6'6, 242	JR	39	30	335	0	11.2	8.6	76.9%
Alabama	Kenyan Drake	RB	6'1, 210	SR	34	24	250	1	10.4	7.4	70.6%
Alabama	Derrick Henry	RB	6'3, 242	JR	16	10	97	0	9.7	6.1	62.5%
Alabama	Robert Foster	WR	6'2, 194	SO	12	10	116	2	11.6	9.7	83.3%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Michigan State	Riley Bullough	LB	6'2, 230	JR	68.5	10.6%	7.0	4.0	2	2	2	1
Michigan State	Darien Harris	LB	6'0, 220	SR	61.0	9.5%	7.0	0.0	0	3	0	0
Michigan State	Montae Nicholson	S	6'2, 220	SO	60.5	9.4%	2.5	0.0	3	2	1	0
Michigan State	Demetrious Cox	DB	6'1, 200	JR	57.5	8.9%	2.0	0.0	3	7	0	1
Michigan State	Jon Reschke	LB	6'2, 228	SO	52.5	8.1%	5.5	2.0	0	2	0	0
Michigan State	Shilique Calhoun	DE	6'5, 250	SR	33.5	5.2%	14.5	10.5	0	3	1	0
Michigan State	Arjen Colquhoun	CB	6'1, 202	SR	32.5	5.0%	1.5	1.0	2	10	2	0
Michigan State	Malik McDowell	DL	6'6, 275	SO	29.0	4.5%	12.0	4.5	1	0	2	0
Michigan State	Darian Hicks	CB	5'10, 180	JR	23.0	3.6%	0.5	0.0	0	3	0	0
Michigan State	Lawrence Thomas	DL	6'4, 305	SR	22.0	3.4%	4.5	3.0	0	4	0	0
Michigan State	Joel Heath	DL	6'6, 293	SR	20.5	3.2%	5.5	2.0	0	1	1	0
Michigan State	Grayson Miller	S	6'3, 200	FR	20.0	3.1%	1.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Michigan State	RJ Williamson	S	6'0, 216	SR	17.5	2.7%	2.0	0.0	2	1	0	1
Alabama	Reggie Ragland	LB	6'2, 252	SR	70.5	11.5%	6.5	2.5	0	6	2	0
Alabama	Reuben Foster	LB	6'1, 240	JR	49.0	8.0%	7.0	1.0	0	8	0	0
Alabama	Geno Matias-Smith	DB	6'0, 196	SR	47.5	7.7%	1.0	0.0	1	1	1	0
Alabama	Marlon Humphrey	DB	6'1, 192	FR	36.0	5.9%	2.5	0.0	3	5	2	0
Alabama	Eddie Jackson	DB	6'0, 194	JR	34.5	5.6%	3.0	0.0	5	2	1	0
Alabama	Jarran Reed	DL	6'4, 313	SR	34.0	5.5%	4.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Alabama	Minkah Fitzpatrick	DB	6'1, 195	FR	34.0	5.5%	3.0	2.0	2	8	0	0
Alabama	A'Shawn Robinson	DL	6'4, 312	JR	29.0	4.7%	7.5	3.5	0	2	0	1
Alabama	Cyrus Jones	DB	5'10, 196	SR	26.5	4.3%	4.0	0.0	1	7	1	1
Alabama	Jonathan Allen	DL	6'3, 283	JR	25.5	4.2%	12.5	10.0	0	4	2	0
Alabama	Ryan Anderson	LB	6'2, 249	JR	25.0	4.1%	9.5	5.0	0	0	2	0
Alabama	Dalvin Tomlinson	DL	6'3, 294	JR	20.0	3.3%	0.5	0.0	0	6	0	0
Alabama	Shaun Dion Hamilton	LB	6'0, 229	SO	18.5	3.0%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Michigan State	Jake Hartbarger	6'4, 210	FR	48	42.1	7	11	17	58.3%
Michigan State	Tyler O'Connor	6'3, 222	JR	5	38.4	1	0	1	20.0%
Alabama	JK Scott	6'5, 195	SO	57	44.2	8	13	13	45.6%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
Michigan State	Kevin Cronin	6'1, 225	JR	75	60.0	22	29.3%	0	2	0	0
Michigan State	Michael Geiger	5'8, 186	JR	2	45.0	0	0.0%	0	1	0	0
Alabama	Adam Griffith	5'10, 192	JR	86	63.6	46	53.5%	3	0	1	1
Alabama	JK Scott	6'5, 195	SO	1	57.0	0	0.0%	0	1	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
Michigan State	Michael Geiger	5'8, 186	JR	51-53	12-19	63.2%
Alabama	Adam Griffith	5'10, 192	JR	51-51	21-29	72.4%
Alabama	JK Scott	6'5, 195	SO	1-1	0-1	0.0%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Michigan State	R.J. Shelton	5'11, 195	JR	18	21.8	0	0	1 (0)
Michigan State	Delton Williams	6'1, 228	JR	2	15.5	0	0	0 (0)
Alabama	Kenyan Drake	6'1, 210	SR	14	22.1	0	0	1 (1)
Alabama	Damien Harris	5'11, 205	FR	9	19.3	0	0	1 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Michigan State	Macgarrett Kings Jr.	5'10, 192	SR	8	3.0	0	13	1 (1)
Michigan State	R.J. Shelton	5'11, 195	JR	2	2.0	0	5	0 (0)
Alabama	Cyrus Jones	5'10, 196	SR	36	12.2	3	29	1 (1)
Alabama	Richard Mullaney	6'3, 208	SR	2	15.0	0	0	0 (0)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}