2015 New Mexico Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: New Mexico vs. Arizona

Gildan New Mexico Bowl

Arizona Wildcats (6-6) vs. New Mexico Lobos (7-5)

December 19 ( 2:00 PM ET, ESPN ), University Stadium, Albuquerque

Spread: Arizona -10

S&P+ Projection: Arizona 36.0, New Mexico 27.9

Team Sites: Arizona Desert Swarm, MWC Connection (UNM)

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.}

_{Statistical profiles index.}

_{Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	Arizona		New Mexico
S&P+ (Rk)	84		101
Category	Arizona offense	New Mexico defense	New Mexico offense	Arizona defense
Yards per play (Rk)	6.14 (26)	5.84 (106)	5.58 (52)	5.67 (93)
Yards per game (Rk)	501.0 (16)	445.0 (106)	370.3 (90)	456.5 (111)
Points per possession (Rk)	2.74 (25)	2.09 (71)	2.30 (63)	2.55 (102)
Category	Arizona offense	New Mexico defense	New Mexico offense	Arizona defense
S&P+ (Rk)	33.5 (37)	34.5 (103)	23.8 (97)	36.1 (109)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	107.2 (48)	93.2 (91)	94.8 (95)	101.2 (66)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	103.4 (61)	86.3 (113)	87.1 (104)	79.2 (123)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	98.7 (78)	91.5 (99)	96.9 (88)	94.4 (88)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	123.6 (16)	81.7 (116)	74.4 (122)	80.2 (120)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	106.4 (56)	87.2 (111)	109.0 (47)	89.9 (98)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	104.5 (61)	83.6 (114)	91.2 (103)	79.5 (124)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	105.3 (58)	95.6 (86)	93.4 (95)	103.6 (59)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	123.3 (9)	102.4 (63)	81.1 (121)	103.1 (58)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

Arizona

1. Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 11 offense vs. No. 121 defense)
2. Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 16 offense vs. No. 116 defense)
3. Q4 S&P+ (No. 17 vs. No. 114 )
4. Third Down S&P+ (No. 39 offense vs. No. 115 defense)
5. Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 41 offense vs. No. 116 defense)

New Mexico

1. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 40 offense vs. No. 116 defense)
2. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 48 offense vs. No. 120 defense)
3. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 27 defense vs. No. 86 offense)
4. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 23 offense vs. No. 78 defense)
5. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 69 offense vs. No. 115 defense)

Five Factors

Category	Arizona offense	New Mexico defense	New Mexico offense	Arizona defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.34 (28)	1.38 (110)	1.38 (18)	1.30 (88)
EFFICIENCY	43.0% (50)	42.1% (73)	38.5% (100)	44.3% (93)
FIELD POSITION	29.6 (76)	28.2 (39)	30.7 (47)	28.8 (47)
FINISHING DRIVES	5.2 (28)	4.0 (25)	4.9 (55)	5.4 (120)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: Arizona -2.33 (91) New Mexico 4.03 (30)		ACTUAL Arizona -5 (97) New Mexico 5 (33)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Arizona offense	New Mexico offense
Adj. Pace	6.0 (18)	-2.0 (77)
Plays per game	81.6 (16)	66.4 (122)
Possessions per game	13.4 (42)	12.8 (82)
Std. Downs Run Rate	53.5% (100)	83.1% (5)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	26.0% (107)	56.2% (5)
% of solo tackles	82.4% (14)	80.3% (25)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Arizona defense	New Mexico defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	59.7% (66)	65.0% (22)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	31.0% (87)	33.5% (70)
Overall Havoc Rate	12.7% (119)	16.0% (58)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	5.1% (128)	9.1% (75)
DB Havoc Rate	7.2% (31)	6.5% (59)
PD to INC	27.1% (112)	32.4% (67)

When Arizona has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Arizona Offense		New Mexico Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	98.7	78	91.5	99	Arizona
Standard Downs Success Rate	46.3	68	46.7	71
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.10	65	1.07	101	Arizona
SD Line Yards per Carry	2.79	78	2.99	83
SD Sack Rate	6%	86	6.2%	27	New Mexico big

Passing Downs

	Arizona Offense		New Mexico Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	123.6	16	81.7	116	Arizona big
Passing Downs Success Rate	35.4	27	31.9	81	Arizona big
Passing Downs IsoPPP	2.08	8	2.09	119	Arizona big
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.75	19	2.83	35	Arizona
PD Sack Rate	6.9%	59	8.5%	39	New Mexico

When New Mexico has the ball…

Standard Downs

	New Mexico Offense		Arizona Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	96.9	88	94.4	88
Standard Downs Success Rate	46.2	69	49.3	93	New Mexico
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.23	14	1.19	51	New Mexico
SD Line Yards per Carry	2.84	72	2.95	77
SD Sack Rate	5%	69	2.8%	115	New Mexico

Passing Downs

	New Mexico Offense		Arizona Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	74.4	122	80.2	120
Passing Downs Success Rate	23.6	122	33.1	93	Arizona
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.93	26	1.99	122	New Mexico big
PD Line Yards per Carry	2.28	120	3.28	70	Arizona big
PD Sack Rate	4.7%	23	6.7%	78	New Mexico big

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Arizona	Anu Solomon	6'2, 205	SO	192	306	2338	18	4	62.7%	19	5.8%	6.9
Arizona	Jerrard Randall	6'1, 185	SR	47	95	518	5	3	49.5%	1	1.0%	5.3
Arizona	Brandon Dawkins	6'3, 195	FR	20	38	338	2	2	52.6%	10	20.8%	6.3
New Mexico	Lamar Jordan	5'10, 190	SO	58	109	935	4	6	53.2%	7	6.0%	7.6
New Mexico	Austin Apodaca	6'2, 207	JR	50	97	644	1	5	51.5%	4	4.0%	6.1

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
Arizona	Nick Wilson	RB	5'10, 199	SO	133	725	8	5.5	5.5	40.6%
Arizona	Jared Baker	RB	5'8, 192	SR	120	691	6	5.8	7.0	37.5%
Arizona	Jerrard Randall	QB	6'1, 185	SR	77	710	5	9.2	10.2	53.2%
Arizona	Anu Solomon	QB	6'2, 205	SO	42	279	2	6.6	4.6	54.8%
New Mexico	Jhurell Pressley	RB	5'10, 203	SR	137	851	11	6.2	10.4	32.1%
New Mexico	Teriyon Gipson	RB	5'8, 182	JR	135	771	6	5.7	6.6	36.3%
New Mexico	Lamar Jordan	QB	5'10, 190	SO	121	751	6	6.2	8.0	41.3%
New Mexico	Richard McQuarley	RB	5'11, 218	SO	44	207	7	4.7	7.7	27.3%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
Arizona	Cayleb Jones	WR	6'3, 215	JR	85	51	726	4	14.2	8.5	60.0%
Arizona	Johnny Jackson	FS	5'10, 184	SR	73	50	612	5	12.2	8.4	68.5%
Arizona	Nate Phillips	WR	5'7, 180	JR	69	41	546	4	13.3	7.9	59.4%
Arizona	David Richards	WR	6'4, 213	SR	58	40	513	5	12.8	8.8	69.0%
Arizona	Samajie Grant	WR	5'9, 177	JR	50	30	286	2	9.5	5.7	60.0%
Arizona	Jared Baker	RB	5'8, 192	SR	18	11	101	1	9.2	5.6	61.1%
Arizona	Josh Kern	TE	6'5, 229	JR	12	7	43	1	6.1	3.6	58.3%
New Mexico	Dameon Gamblin	WR	5'10, 174	JR	45	33	391	2	11.9	8.7	73.3%
New Mexico	Carlos Wiggins	WR	5'8, 166	SR	30	12	233	1	19.4	7.8	40.0%
New Mexico	Delane Hart-Johnson	WR	6'4, 210	SO	24	10	235	1	23.5	9.8	41.7%
New Mexico	Reece White	TE	6'1, 225	SR	22	13	257	0	19.8	11.7	59.1%
New Mexico	Teriyon Gipson	RB	5'8, 182	JR	22	14	158	0	11.3	7.2	63.6%
New Mexico	Marquis Bundy	WR	6'4, 215	SR	15	7	120	0	17.1	8.0	46.7%
New Mexico	Chris Davis, Jr.	WR	5'6, 171	SO	7	5	53	0	10.6	7.6	71.4%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Arizona	Will Parks	S	6'1, 194	SR	61.0	8.2%	6.5	0.0	0	7	2	0
Arizona	Paul Magloire Jr.	S	6'1, 210	JR	52.5	7.0%	4.0	0.0	0	1	1	0
Arizona	DaVonte' Neal	CB	5'10, 173	JR	51.5	6.9%	2.0	0.0	1	4	0	0
Arizona	Tellas Jones	S	6'0, 189	JR	48.0	6.4%	7.0	3.0	0	2	1	0
Arizona	Jamar Allah	FS	6'1, 186	SR	48.0	6.4%	2.0	0.0	2	1	0	1
Arizona	DeAndre' Miller	LB	6'3, 230	SO	39.5	5.3%	6.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Arizona	Jake Matthews	LB	6'3, 221	JR	38.5	5.2%	2.0	1.5	0	0	0	0
Arizona	Cam Denson	CB	5'11, 168	SO	34.5	4.6%	1.0	1.0	2	1	1	0
Arizona	Sir Thomas Jackson	LB	6'0, 222	SR	32.5	4.4%	1.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Arizona	Reggie Gilbert	DL	6'4, 262	SR	31.5	4.2%	7.5	3.5	0	1	1	0
Arizona	Anthony Lopez	S	5'11, 211	SR	25.0	3.3%	4.0	3.0	1	0	0	0
Arizona	Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles	FS	6'2, 182	FR	24.5	3.3%	1.0	0.0	1	0	1	0
Arizona	Luca Bruno	DL	6'4, 264	SO	23.5	3.1%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
New Mexico	Dakota Cox	LB	6'0, 231	JR	68.5	10.2%	11.0	5.0	1	1	0	0
New Mexico	Kimmie Carson	LB	6'0, 213	SO	58.0	8.7%	8.0	3.5	0	0	1	0
New Mexico	Daniel Henry	S	6'1, 196	JR	52.0	7.8%	3.0	1.0	0	4	1	0
New Mexico	Lee Crosby	S	5'11, 201	JR	42.0	6.3%	5.5	1.0	2	3	1	0
New Mexico	Nik D'Avanzo	DL	6'3, 281	JR	39.0	5.8%	8.5	0.5	0	2	0	0
New Mexico	Ryan Langford	LB	6'4, 235	SR	38.5	5.7%	6.5	2.0	1	2	0	0
New Mexico	Ryan Santos	S	5'10, 190	JR	38.0	5.7%	0.0	0.0	1	1	0	0
New Mexico	Markel Byrd	S	5'11, 195	SO	36.0	5.4%	2.5	1.0	3	2	0	0
New Mexico	Maurice Daniels	LB	6'4, 219	JR	33.5	5.0%	11.5	5.5	0	4	1	0
New Mexico	Nias Martin	CB	5'10, 175	JR	30.5	4.6%	2.0	0.0	0	5	0	1
New Mexico	Donnie White	LB	6'1, 240	JR	28.5	4.3%	4.5	3.0	0	0	0	0
New Mexico	Donnie Duncan	CB	5'11, 191	SR	28.5	4.3%	1.0	0.0	1	2	0	0
New Mexico	Cranston Jones	CB	5'8, 172	SR	27.5	4.1%	2.0	0.0	3	4	0	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Arizona	Drew Riggleman	6'2, 213	SR	49	44.8	6	3	13	32.7%
Arizona	Anu Solomon	6'2, 205	SO	2	16.0	0	0	0	0.0%
New Mexico	Zack Rogers	5'9, 191	SR	64	41.6	2	21	18	60.9%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
Arizona	Casey Skowron	5'10, 160	SR	79	61.1	32	40.5%	1	2	2	0
Arizona	Josh Pollack	5'10, 180	FR	2	65.0	0	0.0%	0	0	0	0
New Mexico	Jason Sanders	5'11, 186	SO	66	63.9	46	69.7%	0	1	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
Arizona	Casey Skowron	5'10, 160	SR	53-55	17-20	85.0%
Arizona	Josh Pollack	5'10, 180	FR	1-1	0-0	#DIV/0!
New Mexico	Zack Rogers	5'9, 191	SR	23-23	4-7	57.1%
New Mexico	Jason Sanders	5'11, 186	SO	22-22	3-7	42.9%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Arizona	Tyrell Johnson	5'7, 160	SO	14	24.0	0	0	0 (0)
Arizona	Nate Phillips	5'7, 180	JR	8	19.5	0	0	0 (0)
New Mexico	Carlos Wiggins	5'8, 166	SR	19	28.8	1	0	2 (1)
New Mexico	Daryl Chestnut	5'8, 188	SO	6	18.2	0	0	0 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Arizona	Nate Phillips	5'7, 180	JR	7	17.3	1	18	0 (0)
Arizona	Trey Griffey	6'3, 195	JR	1	-3.0	0	0	1 (1)
New Mexico	Carlos Wiggins	5'8, 166	SR	9	6.1	0	4	0 (0)
New Mexico	Chris Davis, Jr.	5'6, 171	SO	1	0.0	0	3	0 (0)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}