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2015 Camellia Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Appalachian State vs. Ohio

Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl

Ohio Bobcats (8-4) vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-2)

December 19 ( 5:30 PM ET, ESPN ), Cramtom Bowl, Montgomery
Spread: Appalachian State -8
S&P+ Projection: Appalachian State 31.8, Ohio 25.3
Team Sites: Hustle Belt (Ohio), Underdog Dynasty (ASU)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Statistical profiles index.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Ohio Appalachian State
S&P+ (Rk) 71 42
Category Ohio offense Appalachian State defense Appalachian State offense Ohio defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.43 (59) 4.53 (12) 6.48 (13) 5.48 (81)
Yards per game (Rk) 418.0 (50) 313.2 (12) 463.6 (27) 370.7 (51)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.22 (68) 1.42 (16) 2.95 (14) 2.01 (60)
Category Ohio offense Appalachian State defense Appalachian State offense Ohio defense
S&P+ (Rk) 28.6 (69) 25.2 (48) 32.7 (43) 27.6 (66)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 97.5 (87) 105.5 (47) 110.7 (29) 100.4 (67)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 103.9 (57) 101.9 (60) 124.5 (16) 105.6 (48)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 98.7 (79) 109.4 (34) 121.9 (8) 103.7 (51)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 103.1 (60) 98.1 (77) 97.2 (80) 101.9 (65)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 101.2 (74) 108.7 (37) 114.8 (34) 119.0 (27)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 100.5 (70) 116.9 (26) 117.8 (28) 103.8 (67)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 85.9 (109) 105.6 (55) 119.0 (26) 91.8 (94)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 121.3 (12) 96.6 (79) 104.1 (61) 83.6 (121)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Ohio

  1. Field Position (No. 11 defense vs. No. 63 offense)
  2. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 12 offense vs. No. 56 defense)
  3. Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 63 defense vs. No. 105 offense)
  4. Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 31 defense vs. No. 69 offense)
  5. Run Stuffs (No. 23 offense vs. No. 50 defense)

Appalachian State

  1. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 10 defense vs. No. 116 offense)
  2. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 10 defense vs. No. 102 offense)
  3. Redzone S&P+ (No. 12 offense vs. No. 101 defense)
  4. Q3 S&P+ (No. 31 vs. No. 110 )
  5. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 32 offense vs. No. 104 defense)
Five Factors
Category Ohio offense Appalachian State defense Appalachian State offense Ohio defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.23 (82) 1.14 (15) 1.41 (9) 1.29 (80)
EFFICIENCY 41.3% (73) 39.1% (48) 46.6% (19) 37.4% (28)
FIELD POSITION 30.1 (62) 30.6 (86) 30.1 (63) 26.7 (11)
FINISHING DRIVES 4.5 (86) 3.8 (15) 5.6 (3) 5.1 (101)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Ohio 6.19 (20)
Appalachian State -1.95 (89)
ACTUAL
Ohio 5 (33)
Appalachian State 2 (52)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Ohio offense Appalachian State offense
Adj. Pace 2.3 (37) -0.3 (62)
Plays per game 77.0 (40) 71.5 (84)
Possessions per game 12.3 (108) 12.6 (93)
Std. Downs Run Rate 61.0% (58) 68.4% (20)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 42.2% (21) 47.0% (11)
% of solo tackles 76.8% (45) 67.7% (112)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Ohio defense Appalachian State defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 54.4% (114) 63.9% (34)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 29.0% (109) 36.8% (36)
Overall Havoc Rate 16.0% (59) 17.1% (44)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 9.9% (55) 11.7% (23)
DB Havoc Rate 5.9% (77) 5.4% (97)
PD to INC 35.8% (35) 31.4% (75)

When Ohio has the ball…

Standard Downs
Ohio Offense Appalachian State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 98.7 79 109.4 34 Appalachian State
Standard Downs Success Rate 45.9 75 42.9 40 Appalachian State
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.05 88 1.12 45 Appalachian State
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.06 39 2.76 45
SD Sack Rate 8.2% 116 7.4% 10 Appalachian State big
Passing Downs
Ohio Offense Appalachian State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 103.1 60 98.1 77 Ohio
Passing Downs Success Rate 31.5 59 31.3 76 Ohio
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.77 66 1.76 2 Appalachian State big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.59 31 2.54 12 Appalachian State
PD Sack Rate 4.5% 18 11% 17

When Appalachian State has the ball…

Standard Downs
Appalachian State Offense Ohio Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 121.9 8 103.7 51 Appalachian State
Standard Downs Success Rate 54.9 5 42.1 23 Appalachian State
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.27 10 1.06 75 Appalachian State big
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.41 6 2.66 35 Appalachian State
SD Sack Rate 3.2% 32 3.6% 104 Appalachian State big
Passing Downs
Appalachian State Offense Ohio Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 97.2 80 101.9 65 Ohio
Passing Downs Success Rate 26.5 100 28.6 47 Ohio big
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.10 4 1.39 64 Appalachian State big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.23 66 3.97 126 Appalachian State big
PD Sack Rate 3.4% 6 7.6% 58 Appalachian State big
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Ohio Derrius Vick 6'1, 196 SR 158 247 1809 10 6 64.0% 21 7.8% 6.2
Ohio JD Sprague 6'1, 200 JR 49 86 780 7 1 57.0% 4 4.4% 8.4
Ohio Greg Windham 6'1, 214 JR 18 39 265 1 4 46.2% 1 2.5% 6.6
Appalachian State Taylor Lamb 6'2, 200 SO 157 257 2263 29 8 61.1% 9 3.4% 8.3
Appalachian State J.P. Caruso 6'1, 210 FR 8 12 109 2 0 66.7% 0 0.0% 9.1
Appalachian State
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Ohio A.J. Ouellette RB 5'10, 195 SO 137 642 5 4.7 2.8 40.1%
Ohio Daz'mond Patterson RB 5'7, 177 SR 102 497 9 4.9 4.6 35.3%
Ohio Derrius Vick QB 6'1, 196 SR 72 315 1 4.4 4.7 34.7%
Ohio Dorian Brown RB 5'11, 196 SO 40 204 0 5.1 5.9 35.0%
Appalachian State Marcus Cox RB 5'10, 200 JR 219 1261 8 5.8 6.2 41.6%
Appalachian State Jalin Moore RB 5'11, 200 FR 86 635 5 7.4 6.7 48.8%
Appalachian State Terrence Upshaw RB 5'10, 210 SO 79 434 3 5.5 4.7 48.1%
Appalachian State Taylor Lamb QB 6'2, 200 SO 67 444 4 6.6 5.6 52.2%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Ohio Sebastian Smith WR 6'3, 183 JR 92 61 747 7 12.3 8.1 66.3%
Ohio Jordan Reid WR 6'3, 198 JR 64 45 625 5 13.9 9.8 70.3%
Ohio Brendan Cope WR 6'2, 189 SO 53 28 464 2 16.6 8.8 52.8%
Ohio Keith Heitzman TE 6'4, 255 SR 36 21 278 3 13.2 7.7 58.3%
Ohio Papi White RB 5'9, 166 FR 22 17 291 1 17.1 13.2 77.3%
Ohio Daz'mond Patterson RB 5'7, 177 SR 19 15 49 0 3.3 2.6 78.9%
Ohio A.J. Ouellette RB 5'10, 195 SO 15 11 72 0 6.6 4.8 73.3%
Appalachian State Simms McElfresh WR 5'10, 180 SR 52 33 424 6 12.9 8.2 63.5%
Appalachian State Malachi Jones WR 6'2, 215 SR 37 23 433 3 18.8 11.7 62.2%
Appalachian State Shaedon Meadors WR 6'2, 180 SO 34 21 439 3 20.9 12.9 61.8%
Appalachian State Bobo Beathard WR 5'10, 190 SR 20 13 255 3 19.6 12.8 65.0%
Appalachian State Marcus Cox RB 5'10, 200 JR 20 18 160 2 8.9 8.0 90.0%
Appalachian State Ike Lewis WR 5'10, 175 SO 17 10 158 1 15.8 9.3 58.8%
Appalachian State Barrett Burns TE 6'4, 245 JR 15 12 131 6 10.9 8.7 80.0%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Ohio Quentin Poling LB 6'0, 219 SO 50.5 8.0% 8.5 4.0 3 2 2 0
Ohio Blair Brown LB 6'0, 230 JR 48.0 7.6% 4.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
Ohio Devin Jones S 6'1, 202 SR 47.5 7.5% 3.0 0.0 0 8 1 0
Ohio Kurt Laseak DL 6'4, 236 JR 41.5 6.5% 6.5 3.0 0 0 1 0
Ohio Chad Moore LB 6'0, 193 SO 41.0 6.5% 3.5 1.0 0 3 1 0
Ohio Toran Davis S 6'0, 206 JR 36.5 5.7% 0.0 0.0 0 1 1 0
Ohio Brett Layton CB 5'11, 180 SR 33.5 5.3% 0.0 0.0 0 9 0 0
Ohio Tarell Basham DL 6'4, 250 JR 28.0 4.4% 8.0 5.0 0 1 2 0
Ohio Jovon Johnson LB 6'0, 215 SR 26.0 4.1% 3.0 1.0 3 1 0 0
Ohio Ian Wells CB 5'11, 202 SR 25.0 3.9% 1.0 0.0 2 9 0 0
Ohio Nathan Carpenter S 5'9, 201 SR 25.0 3.9% 0.5 0.0 2 1 0 1
Ohio Bryan DiCillo LB 6'2, 212 FR 24.0 3.8% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
Ohio Devin Bass CB 5'9, 190 SR 22.0 3.5% 0.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Appalachian State Eric Boggs ILB 6'3, 235 SO 72.5 11.0% 6.5 3.0 3 1 0 0
Appalachian State John Law ILB 6'0, 230 JR 57.0 8.6% 9.5 4.0 2 1 0 0
Appalachian State Ronald Blair DL 6'4, 270 SR 53.0 8.0% 18.0 7.5 1 0 0 0
Appalachian State Kennan Gilchrist OLB 6'2, 210 JR 44.5 6.7% 2.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Appalachian State Alex Gray DB 6'3, 210 JR 42.0 6.4% 1.5 0.0 2 2 1 0
Appalachian State Devan Stringer OLB 5'11, 200 SO 40.5 6.1% 7.5 2.5 0 2 0 1
Appalachian State Doug Middleton DB 6'0, 210 SR 38.0 5.7% 1.0 0.5 0 2 0 0
Appalachian State Latrell Gibbs DB 5'10, 170 SO 33.0 5.0% 2.0 0.0 6 9 0 0
Appalachian State A.J. Howard DB 5'11, 190 SO 27.0 4.1% 5.0 0.5 0 1 0 0
Appalachian State Nate Norwood DL 6'2, 240 JR 26.0 3.9% 7.0 4.0 0 0 0 0
Appalachian State Mondo Williams DB 5'11, 175 JR 26.0 3.9% 2.0 0.0 1 4 0 0
Appalachian State Olawale Dada DL 6'0, 235 JR 25.0 3.8% 5.5 3.0 0 0 0 0
Appalachian State Osvaldo Sombo OLB 6'2, 240 SR 21.0 3.2% 5.5 2.0 0 1 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Ohio Mitch Bonnstetter 5'11, 187 SR 62 38.8 3 24 20 71.0%
Appalachian State Bentlee Critcher 6'1, 190 JR 47 44.1 6 11 10 44.7%
Appalachian State Taylor Lamb 6'2, 200 SO 1 23.0 0 0 0 0.0%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Ohio Josiah Yazdani 5'10, 216 SR 67 57.3 8 11.9% 0 1 0 0
Appalachian State Zach Matics 6'2, 195 SR 76 62.1 39 51.3% 1 1 0 0
Appalachian State Bentlee Critcher 6'1, 190 JR 3 65.0 3 100.0% 0 0 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Ohio Josiah Yazdani 5'10, 216 SR 41-41 14-20 70.0%
Appalachian State Zach Matics 6'2, 195 SR 57-57 13-14 92.9%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Ohio Daz'mond Patterson 5'7, 177 SR 12 24.4 0 0 0 (0)
Ohio Devin Bass 5'9, 190 SR 7 18.3 0 0 0 (0)
Appalachian State Ricky Fergerson 5'8, 170 SR 18 22.0 0 0 1 (1)
Appalachian State Bobo Beathard 5'10, 190 SR 6 21.5 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Ohio Papi White 5'9, 166 FR 13 7.5 0 10 1 (1)
Ohio Daz'mond Patterson 5'7, 177 SR 5 6.4 0 5 0 (0)
Appalachian State Bobo Beathard 5'10, 190 SR 12 5.3 0 15 0 (0)
Appalachian State Latrell Gibbs 5'10, 170 SO 8 6.0 0 9 1 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics