2015 Camellia Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Appalachian State vs. Ohio

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl

Ohio Bobcats (8-4) vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers (10-2)

December 19 ( 5:30 PM ET, ESPN ), Cramtom Bowl, Montgomery

Spread: Appalachian State -8

S&P+ Projection: Appalachian State 31.8, Ohio 25.3

Team Sites: Hustle Belt (Ohio), Underdog Dynasty (ASU)

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.}

_{Statistical profiles index.}

_{Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	Ohio		Appalachian State
S&P+ (Rk)	71		42
Category	Ohio offense	Appalachian State defense	Appalachian State offense	Ohio defense
Yards per play (Rk)	5.43 (59)	4.53 (12)	6.48 (13)	5.48 (81)
Yards per game (Rk)	418.0 (50)	313.2 (12)	463.6 (27)	370.7 (51)
Points per possession (Rk)	2.22 (68)	1.42 (16)	2.95 (14)	2.01 (60)
Category	Ohio offense	Appalachian State defense	Appalachian State offense	Ohio defense
S&P+ (Rk)	28.6 (69)	25.2 (48)	32.7 (43)	27.6 (66)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	97.5 (87)	105.5 (47)	110.7 (29)	100.4 (67)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	103.9 (57)	101.9 (60)	124.5 (16)	105.6 (48)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	98.7 (79)	109.4 (34)	121.9 (8)	103.7 (51)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	103.1 (60)	98.1 (77)	97.2 (80)	101.9 (65)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	101.2 (74)	108.7 (37)	114.8 (34)	119.0 (27)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	100.5 (70)	116.9 (26)	117.8 (28)	103.8 (67)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	85.9 (109)	105.6 (55)	119.0 (26)	91.8 (94)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	121.3 (12)	96.6 (79)	104.1 (61)	83.6 (121)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

Ohio

1. Field Position (No. 11 defense vs. No. 63 offense)
2. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 12 offense vs. No. 56 defense)
3. Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 63 defense vs. No. 105 offense)
4. Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 31 defense vs. No. 69 offense)
5. Run Stuffs (No. 23 offense vs. No. 50 defense)

Appalachian State

1. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 10 defense vs. No. 116 offense)
2. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 10 defense vs. No. 102 offense)
3. Redzone S&P+ (No. 12 offense vs. No. 101 defense)
4. Q3 S&P+ (No. 31 vs. No. 110 )
5. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 32 offense vs. No. 104 defense)

Five Factors

Category	Ohio offense	Appalachian State defense	Appalachian State offense	Ohio defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.23 (82)	1.14 (15)	1.41 (9)	1.29 (80)
EFFICIENCY	41.3% (73)	39.1% (48)	46.6% (19)	37.4% (28)
FIELD POSITION	30.1 (62)	30.6 (86)	30.1 (63)	26.7 (11)
FINISHING DRIVES	4.5 (86)	3.8 (15)	5.6 (3)	5.1 (101)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: Ohio 6.19 (20) Appalachian State -1.95 (89)		ACTUAL Ohio 5 (33) Appalachian State 2 (52)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Ohio offense	Appalachian State offense
Adj. Pace	2.3 (37)	-0.3 (62)
Plays per game	77.0 (40)	71.5 (84)
Possessions per game	12.3 (108)	12.6 (93)
Std. Downs Run Rate	61.0% (58)	68.4% (20)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	42.2% (21)	47.0% (11)
% of solo tackles	76.8% (45)	67.7% (112)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Ohio defense	Appalachian State defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	54.4% (114)	63.9% (34)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	29.0% (109)	36.8% (36)
Overall Havoc Rate	16.0% (59)	17.1% (44)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	9.9% (55)	11.7% (23)
DB Havoc Rate	5.9% (77)	5.4% (97)
PD to INC	35.8% (35)	31.4% (75)

When Ohio has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Ohio Offense		Appalachian State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	98.7	79	109.4	34	Appalachian State
Standard Downs Success Rate	45.9	75	42.9	40	Appalachian State
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.05	88	1.12	45	Appalachian State
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.06	39	2.76	45
SD Sack Rate	8.2%	116	7.4%	10	Appalachian State big

Passing Downs

	Ohio Offense		Appalachian State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	103.1	60	98.1	77	Ohio
Passing Downs Success Rate	31.5	59	31.3	76	Ohio
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.77	66	1.76	2	Appalachian State big
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.59	31	2.54	12	Appalachian State
PD Sack Rate	4.5%	18	11%	17

When Appalachian State has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Appalachian State Offense		Ohio Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	121.9	8	103.7	51	Appalachian State
Standard Downs Success Rate	54.9	5	42.1	23	Appalachian State
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.27	10	1.06	75	Appalachian State big
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.41	6	2.66	35	Appalachian State
SD Sack Rate	3.2%	32	3.6%	104	Appalachian State big

Passing Downs

	Appalachian State Offense		Ohio Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	97.2	80	101.9	65	Ohio
Passing Downs Success Rate	26.5	100	28.6	47	Ohio big
Passing Downs IsoPPP	2.10	4	1.39	64	Appalachian State big
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.23	66	3.97	126	Appalachian State big
PD Sack Rate	3.4%	6	7.6%	58	Appalachian State big

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Ohio	Derrius Vick	6'1, 196	SR	158	247	1809	10	6	64.0%	21	7.8%	6.2
Ohio	JD Sprague	6'1, 200	JR	49	86	780	7	1	57.0%	4	4.4%	8.4
Ohio	Greg Windham	6'1, 214	JR	18	39	265	1	4	46.2%	1	2.5%	6.6
Appalachian State	Taylor Lamb	6'2, 200	SO	157	257	2263	29	8	61.1%	9	3.4%	8.3
Appalachian State	J.P. Caruso	6'1, 210	FR	8	12	109	2	0	66.7%	0	0.0%	9.1
Appalachian State

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
Ohio	A.J. Ouellette	RB	5'10, 195	SO	137	642	5	4.7	2.8	40.1%
Ohio	Daz'mond Patterson	RB	5'7, 177	SR	102	497	9	4.9	4.6	35.3%
Ohio	Derrius Vick	QB	6'1, 196	SR	72	315	1	4.4	4.7	34.7%
Ohio	Dorian Brown	RB	5'11, 196	SO	40	204	0	5.1	5.9	35.0%
Appalachian State	Marcus Cox	RB	5'10, 200	JR	219	1261	8	5.8	6.2	41.6%
Appalachian State	Jalin Moore	RB	5'11, 200	FR	86	635	5	7.4	6.7	48.8%
Appalachian State	Terrence Upshaw	RB	5'10, 210	SO	79	434	3	5.5	4.7	48.1%
Appalachian State	Taylor Lamb	QB	6'2, 200	SO	67	444	4	6.6	5.6	52.2%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
Ohio	Sebastian Smith	WR	6'3, 183	JR	92	61	747	7	12.3	8.1	66.3%
Ohio	Jordan Reid	WR	6'3, 198	JR	64	45	625	5	13.9	9.8	70.3%
Ohio	Brendan Cope	WR	6'2, 189	SO	53	28	464	2	16.6	8.8	52.8%
Ohio	Keith Heitzman	TE	6'4, 255	SR	36	21	278	3	13.2	7.7	58.3%
Ohio	Papi White	RB	5'9, 166	FR	22	17	291	1	17.1	13.2	77.3%
Ohio	Daz'mond Patterson	RB	5'7, 177	SR	19	15	49	0	3.3	2.6	78.9%
Ohio	A.J. Ouellette	RB	5'10, 195	SO	15	11	72	0	6.6	4.8	73.3%
Appalachian State	Simms McElfresh	WR	5'10, 180	SR	52	33	424	6	12.9	8.2	63.5%
Appalachian State	Malachi Jones	WR	6'2, 215	SR	37	23	433	3	18.8	11.7	62.2%
Appalachian State	Shaedon Meadors	WR	6'2, 180	SO	34	21	439	3	20.9	12.9	61.8%
Appalachian State	Bobo Beathard	WR	5'10, 190	SR	20	13	255	3	19.6	12.8	65.0%
Appalachian State	Marcus Cox	RB	5'10, 200	JR	20	18	160	2	8.9	8.0	90.0%
Appalachian State	Ike Lewis	WR	5'10, 175	SO	17	10	158	1	15.8	9.3	58.8%
Appalachian State	Barrett Burns	TE	6'4, 245	JR	15	12	131	6	10.9	8.7	80.0%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ohio	Quentin Poling	LB	6'0, 219	SO	50.5	8.0%	8.5	4.0	3	2	2	0
Ohio	Blair Brown	LB	6'0, 230	JR	48.0	7.6%	4.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ohio	Devin Jones	S	6'1, 202	SR	47.5	7.5%	3.0	0.0	0	8	1	0
Ohio	Kurt Laseak	DL	6'4, 236	JR	41.5	6.5%	6.5	3.0	0	0	1	0
Ohio	Chad Moore	LB	6'0, 193	SO	41.0	6.5%	3.5	1.0	0	3	1	0
Ohio	Toran Davis	S	6'0, 206	JR	36.5	5.7%	0.0	0.0	0	1	1	0
Ohio	Brett Layton	CB	5'11, 180	SR	33.5	5.3%	0.0	0.0	0	9	0	0
Ohio	Tarell Basham	DL	6'4, 250	JR	28.0	4.4%	8.0	5.0	0	1	2	0
Ohio	Jovon Johnson	LB	6'0, 215	SR	26.0	4.1%	3.0	1.0	3	1	0	0
Ohio	Ian Wells	CB	5'11, 202	SR	25.0	3.9%	1.0	0.0	2	9	0	0
Ohio	Nathan Carpenter	S	5'9, 201	SR	25.0	3.9%	0.5	0.0	2	1	0	1
Ohio	Bryan DiCillo	LB	6'2, 212	FR	24.0	3.8%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ohio	Devin Bass	CB	5'9, 190	SR	22.0	3.5%	0.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Appalachian State	Eric Boggs	ILB	6'3, 235	SO	72.5	11.0%	6.5	3.0	3	1	0	0
Appalachian State	John Law	ILB	6'0, 230	JR	57.0	8.6%	9.5	4.0	2	1	0	0
Appalachian State	Ronald Blair	DL	6'4, 270	SR	53.0	8.0%	18.0	7.5	1	0	0	0
Appalachian State	Kennan Gilchrist	OLB	6'2, 210	JR	44.5	6.7%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Appalachian State	Alex Gray	DB	6'3, 210	JR	42.0	6.4%	1.5	0.0	2	2	1	0
Appalachian State	Devan Stringer	OLB	5'11, 200	SO	40.5	6.1%	7.5	2.5	0	2	0	1
Appalachian State	Doug Middleton	DB	6'0, 210	SR	38.0	5.7%	1.0	0.5	0	2	0	0
Appalachian State	Latrell Gibbs	DB	5'10, 170	SO	33.0	5.0%	2.0	0.0	6	9	0	0
Appalachian State	A.J. Howard	DB	5'11, 190	SO	27.0	4.1%	5.0	0.5	0	1	0	0
Appalachian State	Nate Norwood	DL	6'2, 240	JR	26.0	3.9%	7.0	4.0	0	0	0	0
Appalachian State	Mondo Williams	DB	5'11, 175	JR	26.0	3.9%	2.0	0.0	1	4	0	0
Appalachian State	Olawale Dada	DL	6'0, 235	JR	25.0	3.8%	5.5	3.0	0	0	0	0
Appalachian State	Osvaldo Sombo	OLB	6'2, 240	SR	21.0	3.2%	5.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Ohio	Mitch Bonnstetter	5'11, 187	SR	62	38.8	3	24	20	71.0%
Appalachian State	Bentlee Critcher	6'1, 190	JR	47	44.1	6	11	10	44.7%
Appalachian State	Taylor Lamb	6'2, 200	SO	1	23.0	0	0	0	0.0%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
Ohio	Josiah Yazdani	5'10, 216	SR	67	57.3	8	11.9%	0	1	0	0
Appalachian State	Zach Matics	6'2, 195	SR	76	62.1	39	51.3%	1	1	0	0
Appalachian State	Bentlee Critcher	6'1, 190	JR	3	65.0	3	100.0%	0	0	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
Ohio	Josiah Yazdani	5'10, 216	SR	41-41	14-20	70.0%
Appalachian State	Zach Matics	6'2, 195	SR	57-57	13-14	92.9%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Ohio	Daz'mond Patterson	5'7, 177	SR	12	24.4	0	0	0 (0)
Ohio	Devin Bass	5'9, 190	SR	7	18.3	0	0	0 (0)
Appalachian State	Ricky Fergerson	5'8, 170	SR	18	22.0	0	0	1 (1)
Appalachian State	Bobo Beathard	5'10, 190	SR	6	21.5	0	0	0 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Ohio	Papi White	5'9, 166	FR	13	7.5	0	10	1 (1)
Ohio	Daz'mond Patterson	5'7, 177	SR	5	6.4	0	5	0 (0)
Appalachian State	Bobo Beathard	5'10, 190	SR	12	5.3	0	15	0 (0)
Appalachian State	Latrell Gibbs	5'10, 170	SO	8	6.0	0	9	1 (0)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}