2015 Cure Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Georgia State vs. San Jose State

AutoNation Cure Bowl

San Jose State Spartans (5-7) vs. Georgia State Panthers (6-6)

December 19 ( 7:00 PM ET, CBSSN ), Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando

Spread: San Jose State -3.5

S&P+ Projection: Georgia State 31.3, San Jose State 29.8

Team Sites: MWC Connection (SJSU), Underdog Dynasty (GSU)

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.}

_{Statistical profiles index.}

_{Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	San Jose State		Georgia State
S&P+ (Rk)	92		90
Category	San Jose State offense	Georgia State defense	Georgia State offense	San Jose State defense
Yards per play (Rk)	5.71 (44)	5.20 (53)	6.09 (29)	5.44 (78)
Yards per game (Rk)	416.7 (52)	417.5 (87)	452.4 (31)	367.4 (47)
Points per possession (Rk)	2.42 (50)	2.23 (78)	2.09 (79)	2.40 (91)
Category	San Jose State offense	Georgia State defense	Georgia State offense	San Jose State defense
S&P+ (Rk)	27.2 (83)	33.1 (96)	28.6 (68)	33.2 (97)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	105.9 (53)	109.1 (38)	78.7 (125)	87.6 (111)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	99.2 (73)	93.5 (88)	108.2 (42)	103.0 (55)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	95.1 (93)	98.6 (68)	95.4 (92)	88.1 (114)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	121.4 (21)	110.0 (36)	112.8 (39)	102.3 (64)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	111.8 (43)	93.1 (91)	97.6 (84)	95.8 (80)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	100.9 (69)	104.9 (63)	106.9 (51)	99.8 (75)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	103.2 (66)	97.7 (78)	111.2 (42)	95.2 (87)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	104.5 (59)	102.8 (60)	80.6 (123)	85.3 (114)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

San Jose State

1. Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 50 offense vs. No. 118 defense)
2. Third Down S&P+ (No. 22 offense vs. No. 75 defense)
3. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 31 offense vs. No. 81 defense)
4. Run Stuffs (No. 40 offense vs. No. 85 defense)
5. Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 12 offense vs. No. 55 defense)

Georgia State

1. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 52 defense vs. No. 103 offense)
2. Third Down S&P+ (No. 24 offense vs. No. 73 defense)
3. Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 58 offense vs. No. 105 defense)
4. Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 42 offense vs. No. 89 defense)
5. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 69 offense vs. No. 114 defense)

Five Factors

Category	San Jose State offense	Georgia State defense	Georgia State offense	San Jose State defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.20 (95)	1.17 (22)	1.39 (16)	1.21 (42)
EFFICIENCY	45.6% (26)	42.6% (77)	42.0% (65)	43.9% (89)
FIELD POSITION	27.7 (112)	30.2 (77)	25.3 (128)	32.3 (114)
FINISHING DRIVES	4.7 (71)	4.6 (62)	4.8 (60)	4.8 (77)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: San Jose State 0.36 (67) Georgia State 2.14 (51)		ACTUAL San Jose State -5 (97) Georgia State -1 (72)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	San Jose State offense	Georgia State offense
Adj. Pace	-0.8 (67)	-2.6 (85)
Plays per game	72.9 (66)	74.3 (60)
Possessions per game	11.6 (124)	13.3 (47)
Std. Downs Run Rate	63.6% (38)	49.5% (116)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	29.2% (86)	19.5% (125)
% of solo tackles	75.9% (52)	78.9% (38)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	San Jose State defense	Georgia State defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	72.4% (1)	59.7% (67)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	41.3% (10)	34.3% (61)
Overall Havoc Rate	12.9% (116)	15.6% (75)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	5.6% (125)	7.6% (104)
DB Havoc Rate	7.2% (33)	7.9% (18)
PD to INC	31.8% (72)	39.0% (18)

When San Jose State has the ball…

Standard Downs

	San Jose State Offense		Georgia State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	95.1	93	98.6	68	Georgia State
Standard Downs Success Rate	48.3	44	49.7	98	San Jose State big
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.02	99	1.11	41	Georgia State big
SD Line Yards per Carry	2.82	74	2.96	80
SD Sack Rate	9.6%	121	0.4%	128

Passing Downs

	San Jose State Offense		Georgia State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	121.4	21	110.0	36	San Jose State
Passing Downs Success Rate	39.4	9	25.0	20	San Jose State
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.74	70	1.58	67
PD Line Yards per Carry	4.27	5	3.30	71	San Jose State big
PD Sack Rate	5.2%	28	7.7%	56	San Jose State

When Georgia State has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Georgia State Offense		San Jose State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	95.4	92	88.1	114	Georgia State
Standard Downs Success Rate	43.8	106	50.0	100
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.31	5	1.04	74	Georgia State big
SD Line Yards per Carry	2.62	109	3.27	116
SD Sack Rate	6.6%	97	1.6%	125	Georgia State

Passing Downs

	Georgia State Offense		San Jose State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	112.8	39	102.3	64	Georgia State
Passing Downs Success Rate	38.1	13	30.1	58	Georgia State
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.59	102	1.77	19	San Jose State big
PD Line Yards per Carry	2.71	106	2.70	18	San Jose State big
PD Sack Rate	5.5%	32	7.4%	61	Georgia State

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
San Jose State	Kenny Potter	6'2, 212	JR	172	251	1895	14	6	68.5%	28	10.0%	6.1
San Jose State	Joe Gray	6'2, 207	SR	73	105	839	6	4	69.5%	8	7.1%	7.0
San Jose State	Malik Watson	6'3, 208	JR	9	15	59	0	1	60.0%	0	0.0%	3.9
Georgia State	Nick Arbuckle	6'1, 215	SR	293	457	4160	26	11	64.1%	29	6.0%	8.2
Georgia State	Emiere Scaife	6'2, 218	FR	0	8	0	0	0	0.0%	1	11.1%	-0.4

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
San Jose State	Tyler Ervin	RB	5'10, 177	SR	264	1469	13	5.6	6.3	37.9%
San Jose State	Kenny Potter	QB	6'2, 212	JR	72	545	6	7.6	7.7	50.0%
San Jose State	Thomas Tucker	RB	5'10, 197	SO	36	147	2	4.1	1.9	36.1%
San Jose State	Malik Roberson	RB	5'8, 185	FR	24	92	0	3.8	3.4	29.2%
Georgia State	Glenn Smith	WR	6'1, 185	SO	83	344	1	4.1	6.3	26.5%
Georgia State	Kyler Neal	RB	5'11, 218	SO	80	323	5	4.0	4.0	26.3%
Georgia State	Demarcus Kirk	RB	6'0, 190	FR	75	320	2	4.3	3.9	32.0%
Georgia State	Taz Bateman	RB	5'8, 185	SO	47	240	1	5.1	3.5	51.1%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
San Jose State	Billy Freeman	TE	6'3, 232	JR	74	47	581	6	12.4	7.9	63.5%
San Jose State	Tim Crawley	WR	5'7, 170	JR	53	39	424	5	10.9	8.0	73.6%
San Jose State	Tyler Ervin	RB	5'10, 177	SR	52	44	337	2	7.7	6.5	84.6%
San Jose State	Tyler Winston	WR	6'2, 191	JR	49	35	368	2	10.5	7.5	71.4%
San Jose State	Hansell Wilson	WR	5'9, 183	SR	47	34	464	4	13.7	9.9	72.3%
San Jose State	Justin Holmes	WR	6'2, 214	FR	33	20	178	0	8.9	5.4	60.6%
San Jose State	Shane Smith	RB	6'2, 238	JR	14	7	121	0	17.3	8.6	50.0%
Georgia State	Penny Hart	WR	5'9, 170	FR	100	71	1095	8	15.4	11.0	71.0%
Georgia State	Robert Davis	WR	6'3, 198	JR	96	61	994	6	16.3	10.4	63.5%
Georgia State	Donovan Harden	WR	5'11, 175	SR	62	35	662	4	18.9	10.7	56.5%
Georgia State	Keith Rucker	TE	6'3, 235	JR	46	39	522	6	13.4	11.4	84.8%
Georgia State	Todd Boyd	WR	5'11, 180	SO	31	22	240	1	10.9	7.7	71.0%
Georgia State	Glenn Smith	WR	6'1, 185	SO	24	16	112	0	7.0	4.7	66.7%
Georgia State	Kyler Neal	RB	5'11, 218	SO	15	10	78	0	7.8	5.2	66.7%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
San Jose State	Christian Tago	LB	6'1, 237	JR	90.0	14.5%	9.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
San Jose State	Maurice McKnight	S	6'0, 181	SO	83.0	13.3%	4.5	0.0	1	2	2	0
San Jose State	Frank Ginda	LB	6'0, 236	FR	58.0	9.3%	4.0	0.5	0	0	1	0
San Jose State	Vincenté Miles, Jr.	S	6'1, 196	SR	49.5	8.0%	2.5	1.0	0	3	1	0
San Jose State	Jimmy Pruitt	CB	6'0, 203	SR	44.0	7.1%	4.0	0.0	3	5	1	0
San Jose State	Cleveland Wallace III	CB	5'11, 177	JR	37.0	5.9%	0.5	0.0	3	7	0	0
San Jose State	Andre Chachere	CB	6'0, 193	SO	30.5	4.9%	2.0	1.0	1	8	1	0
San Jose State	Isaiah Irving	DE	6'3, 239	JR	26.0	4.2%	5.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
San Jose State	William Ossai	LB	6'2, 225	SO	25.5	4.1%	2.0	0.0	0	2	1	0
San Jose State	Tony Popovich	DT	6'2, 285	SR	24.0	3.9%	5.0	2.5	0	0	0	0
San Jose State	Nick Oreglia	DT	6'3, 280	JR	23.0	3.7%	2.0	1.0	0	1	1	0
San Jose State	Keenan Sykes	DT	6'3, 277	JR	17.5	2.8%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
San Jose State	Dominic Barnes	CB	5'11, 198	JR	13.0	2.1%	1.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Georgia State	Joseph Peterson	LB	6'0, 225	SR	84.5	11.9%	7.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Georgia State	Tarris Batiste	S	6'1, 210	SR	79.0	11.2%	6.5	0.0	4	6	2	0
Georgia State	Bobby Baker	S	6'2, 200	JR	57.5	8.1%	1.0	0.0	3	5	1	1
Georgia State	Kaleb Ringer	LB	6'0, 235	JR	50.5	7.1%	2.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Georgia State	Alonzo McGee	LB	6'1, 220	JR	50.0	7.1%	12.0	2.5	0	0	0	0
Georgia State	Chandon Sullivan	CB	5'11, 185	SO	43.5	6.1%	4.5	2.0	2	8	0	0
Georgia State	Jerome Smith	CB	5'10, 165	FR	33.5	4.7%	1.5	0.5	1	10	0	0
Georgia State	Trey Payne	LB	6'0, 230	SO	31.0	4.4%	4.0	1.0	0	1	1	0
Georgia State	Shawanye Lawrence	DE	6'4, 270	JR	30.5	4.3%	3.0	0.0	0	4	0	0
Georgia State	Michael Shaw	LB	6'4, 222	FR	28.5	4.0%	6.5	3.0	0	0	0	0
Georgia State	Bruce Dukes	CB	5'10, 195	SR	24.5	3.5%	0.0	0.0	0	9	0	0
Georgia State	Mackendy Cheridor	DE	6'5, 250	SO	24.0	3.4%	5.5	2.0	0	2	1	0
Georgia State	Bryan Williams	S	6'3, 200	JR	16.5	2.3%	1.0	0.0	1	3	0	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
San Jose State	Michael Carrizosa	5'10, 229	SO	43	47.7	6	9	15	55.8%
Georgia State	Wil Lutz	6'0, 190	SR	57	43.9	4	10	14	42.1%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
San Jose State	Austin Lopez	6'0, 209	SR	39	61.2	19	48.7%	0	4	2	0
San Jose State	Bryce Crawford	6'3, 220	FR	22	57.9	6	27.3%	0	1	1	0
Georgia State	Wil Lutz	6'0, 190	SR	62	63.0	34	54.8%	1	0	2	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
San Jose State	Austin Lopez	6'0, 209	SR	33-35	8-15	53.3%
San Jose State	Bryce Crawford	6'3, 220	FR	6-7	1-2	50.0%
Georgia State	Wil Lutz	6'0, 190	SR	40-41	12-19	63.2%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
San Jose State	Tyler Ervin	5'10, 177	SR	25	23.9	0	0	0 (0)
San Jose State	Thomas Tucker	5'10, 197	SO	2	14.0	0	0	0 (0)
Georgia State	Marquan Greene	5'10, 180	FR	16	24.3	1	0	0 (0)
Georgia State	Glenn Smith	6'1, 185	SO	7	21.6	0	0	0 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
San Jose State	Tyler Ervin	5'10, 177	SR	4	1.8	0	32	1 (1)
San Jose State	Tim Crawley	5'7, 170	JR	1	7.0	0	1	0 (0)
Georgia State	Donovan Harden	5'11, 175	SR	3	0.3	0	20	1 (0)
Georgia State	Avery Sweeting	5'8, 160	SR	2	14.0	0	3	0 (0)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}