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2015 Cure Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Georgia State vs. San Jose State

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AutoNation Cure Bowl

San Jose State Spartans (5-7) vs. Georgia State Panthers (6-6)

December 19 ( 7:00 PM ET, CBSSN ), Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando
Spread: San Jose State -3.5
S&P+ Projection: Georgia State 31.3, San Jose State 29.8
Team Sites: MWC Connection (SJSU), Underdog Dynasty (GSU)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Statistical profiles index.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category San Jose State Georgia State
S&P+ (Rk) 92 90
Category San Jose State offense Georgia State defense Georgia State offense San Jose State defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.71 (44) 5.20 (53) 6.09 (29) 5.44 (78)
Yards per game (Rk) 416.7 (52) 417.5 (87) 452.4 (31) 367.4 (47)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.42 (50) 2.23 (78) 2.09 (79) 2.40 (91)
Category San Jose State offense Georgia State defense Georgia State offense San Jose State defense
S&P+ (Rk) 27.2 (83) 33.1 (96) 28.6 (68) 33.2 (97)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 105.9 (53) 109.1 (38) 78.7 (125) 87.6 (111)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 99.2 (73) 93.5 (88) 108.2 (42) 103.0 (55)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 95.1 (93) 98.6 (68) 95.4 (92) 88.1 (114)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 121.4 (21) 110.0 (36) 112.8 (39) 102.3 (64)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 111.8 (43) 93.1 (91) 97.6 (84) 95.8 (80)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 100.9 (69) 104.9 (63) 106.9 (51) 99.8 (75)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 103.2 (66) 97.7 (78) 111.2 (42) 95.2 (87)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 104.5 (59) 102.8 (60) 80.6 (123) 85.3 (114)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

San Jose State

  1. Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 50 offense vs. No. 118 defense)
  2. Third Down S&P+ (No. 22 offense vs. No. 75 defense)
  3. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 31 offense vs. No. 81 defense)
  4. Run Stuffs (No. 40 offense vs. No. 85 defense)
  5. Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 12 offense vs. No. 55 defense)

Georgia State

  1. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 52 defense vs. No. 103 offense)
  2. Third Down S&P+ (No. 24 offense vs. No. 73 defense)
  3. Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 58 offense vs. No. 105 defense)
  4. Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 42 offense vs. No. 89 defense)
  5. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 69 offense vs. No. 114 defense)
Five Factors
Category San Jose State offense Georgia State defense Georgia State offense San Jose State defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.20 (95) 1.17 (22) 1.39 (16) 1.21 (42)
EFFICIENCY 45.6% (26) 42.6% (77) 42.0% (65) 43.9% (89)
FIELD POSITION 27.7 (112) 30.2 (77) 25.3 (128) 32.3 (114)
FINISHING DRIVES 4.7 (71) 4.6 (62) 4.8 (60) 4.8 (77)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
San Jose State 0.36 (67)
Georgia State 2.14 (51)
ACTUAL
San Jose State -5 (97)
Georgia State -1 (72)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) San Jose State offense Georgia State offense
Adj. Pace -0.8 (67) -2.6 (85)
Plays per game 72.9 (66) 74.3 (60)
Possessions per game 11.6 (124) 13.3 (47)
Std. Downs Run Rate 63.6% (38) 49.5% (116)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 29.2% (86) 19.5% (125)
% of solo tackles 75.9% (52) 78.9% (38)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) San Jose State defense Georgia State defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 72.4% (1) 59.7% (67)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 41.3% (10) 34.3% (61)
Overall Havoc Rate 12.9% (116) 15.6% (75)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 5.6% (125) 7.6% (104)
DB Havoc Rate 7.2% (33) 7.9% (18)
PD to INC 31.8% (72) 39.0% (18)

When San Jose State has the ball…

Standard Downs
San Jose State Offense Georgia State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 95.1 93 98.6 68 Georgia State
Standard Downs Success Rate 48.3 44 49.7 98 San Jose State big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.02 99 1.11 41 Georgia State big
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.82 74 2.96 80
SD Sack Rate 9.6% 121 0.4% 128
Passing Downs
San Jose State Offense Georgia State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 121.4 21 110.0 36 San Jose State
Passing Downs Success Rate 39.4 9 25.0 20 San Jose State
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.74 70 1.58 67
PD Line Yards per Carry 4.27 5 3.30 71 San Jose State big
PD Sack Rate 5.2% 28 7.7% 56 San Jose State

When Georgia State has the ball…

Standard Downs
Georgia State Offense San Jose State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 95.4 92 88.1 114 Georgia State
Standard Downs Success Rate 43.8 106 50.0 100
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.31 5 1.04 74 Georgia State big
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.62 109 3.27 116
SD Sack Rate 6.6% 97 1.6% 125 Georgia State
Passing Downs
Georgia State Offense San Jose State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 112.8 39 102.3 64 Georgia State
Passing Downs Success Rate 38.1 13 30.1 58 Georgia State
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.59 102 1.77 19 San Jose State big
PD Line Yards per Carry 2.71 106 2.70 18 San Jose State big
PD Sack Rate 5.5% 32 7.4% 61 Georgia State
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
San Jose State Kenny Potter 6'2, 212 JR 172 251 1895 14 6 68.5% 28 10.0% 6.1
San Jose State Joe Gray 6'2, 207 SR 73 105 839 6 4 69.5% 8 7.1% 7.0
San Jose State Malik Watson 6'3, 208 JR 9 15 59 0 1 60.0% 0 0.0% 3.9
Georgia State Nick Arbuckle 6'1, 215 SR 293 457 4160 26 11 64.1% 29 6.0% 8.2
Georgia State Emiere Scaife 6'2, 218 FR 0 8 0 0 0 0.0% 1 11.1% -0.4
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
San Jose State Tyler Ervin RB 5'10, 177 SR 264 1469 13 5.6 6.3 37.9%
San Jose State Kenny Potter QB 6'2, 212 JR 72 545 6 7.6 7.7 50.0%
San Jose State Thomas Tucker RB 5'10, 197 SO 36 147 2 4.1 1.9 36.1%
San Jose State Malik Roberson RB 5'8, 185 FR 24 92 0 3.8 3.4 29.2%
Georgia State Glenn Smith WR 6'1, 185 SO 83 344 1 4.1 6.3 26.5%
Georgia State Kyler Neal RB 5'11, 218 SO 80 323 5 4.0 4.0 26.3%
Georgia State Demarcus Kirk RB 6'0, 190 FR 75 320 2 4.3 3.9 32.0%
Georgia State Taz Bateman RB 5'8, 185 SO 47 240 1 5.1 3.5 51.1%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
San Jose State Billy Freeman TE 6'3, 232 JR 74 47 581 6 12.4 7.9 63.5%
San Jose State Tim Crawley WR 5'7, 170 JR 53 39 424 5 10.9 8.0 73.6%
San Jose State Tyler Ervin RB 5'10, 177 SR 52 44 337 2 7.7 6.5 84.6%
San Jose State Tyler Winston WR 6'2, 191 JR 49 35 368 2 10.5 7.5 71.4%
San Jose State Hansell Wilson WR 5'9, 183 SR 47 34 464 4 13.7 9.9 72.3%
San Jose State Justin Holmes WR 6'2, 214 FR 33 20 178 0 8.9 5.4 60.6%
San Jose State Shane Smith RB 6'2, 238 JR 14 7 121 0 17.3 8.6 50.0%
Georgia State Penny Hart WR 5'9, 170 FR 100 71 1095 8 15.4 11.0 71.0%
Georgia State Robert Davis WR 6'3, 198 JR 96 61 994 6 16.3 10.4 63.5%
Georgia State Donovan Harden WR 5'11, 175 SR 62 35 662 4 18.9 10.7 56.5%
Georgia State Keith Rucker TE 6'3, 235 JR 46 39 522 6 13.4 11.4 84.8%
Georgia State Todd Boyd WR 5'11, 180 SO 31 22 240 1 10.9 7.7 71.0%
Georgia State Glenn Smith WR 6'1, 185 SO 24 16 112 0 7.0 4.7 66.7%
Georgia State Kyler Neal RB 5'11, 218 SO 15 10 78 0 7.8 5.2 66.7%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
San Jose State Christian Tago LB 6'1, 237 JR 90.0 14.5% 9.0 1.0 0 1 0 0
San Jose State Maurice McKnight S 6'0, 181 SO 83.0 13.3% 4.5 0.0 1 2 2 0
San Jose State Frank Ginda LB 6'0, 236 FR 58.0 9.3% 4.0 0.5 0 0 1 0
San Jose State Vincenté Miles, Jr. S 6'1, 196 SR 49.5 8.0% 2.5 1.0 0 3 1 0
San Jose State Jimmy Pruitt CB 6'0, 203 SR 44.0 7.1% 4.0 0.0 3 5 1 0
San Jose State Cleveland Wallace III CB 5'11, 177 JR 37.0 5.9% 0.5 0.0 3 7 0 0
San Jose State Andre Chachere CB 6'0, 193 SO 30.5 4.9% 2.0 1.0 1 8 1 0
San Jose State Isaiah Irving DE 6'3, 239 JR 26.0 4.2% 5.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
San Jose State William Ossai LB 6'2, 225 SO 25.5 4.1% 2.0 0.0 0 2 1 0
San Jose State Tony Popovich DT 6'2, 285 SR 24.0 3.9% 5.0 2.5 0 0 0 0
San Jose State Nick Oreglia DT 6'3, 280 JR 23.0 3.7% 2.0 1.0 0 1 1 0
San Jose State Keenan Sykes DT 6'3, 277 JR 17.5 2.8% 1.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
San Jose State Dominic Barnes CB 5'11, 198 JR 13.0 2.1% 1.0 1.0 0 1 0 0
Georgia State Joseph Peterson LB 6'0, 225 SR 84.5 11.9% 7.5 2.0 0 1 0 0
Georgia State Tarris Batiste S 6'1, 210 SR 79.0 11.2% 6.5 0.0 4 6 2 0
Georgia State Bobby Baker S 6'2, 200 JR 57.5 8.1% 1.0 0.0 3 5 1 1
Georgia State Kaleb Ringer LB 6'0, 235 JR 50.5 7.1% 2.5 0.0 0 1 0 0
Georgia State Alonzo McGee LB 6'1, 220 JR 50.0 7.1% 12.0 2.5 0 0 0 0
Georgia State Chandon Sullivan CB 5'11, 185 SO 43.5 6.1% 4.5 2.0 2 8 0 0
Georgia State Jerome Smith CB 5'10, 165 FR 33.5 4.7% 1.5 0.5 1 10 0 0
Georgia State Trey Payne LB 6'0, 230 SO 31.0 4.4% 4.0 1.0 0 1 1 0
Georgia State Shawanye Lawrence DE 6'4, 270 JR 30.5 4.3% 3.0 0.0 0 4 0 0
Georgia State Michael Shaw LB 6'4, 222 FR 28.5 4.0% 6.5 3.0 0 0 0 0
Georgia State Bruce Dukes CB 5'10, 195 SR 24.5 3.5% 0.0 0.0 0 9 0 0
Georgia State Mackendy Cheridor DE 6'5, 250 SO 24.0 3.4% 5.5 2.0 0 2 1 0
Georgia State Bryan Williams S 6'3, 200 JR 16.5 2.3% 1.0 0.0 1 3 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
San Jose State Michael Carrizosa 5'10, 229 SO 43 47.7 6 9 15 55.8%
Georgia State Wil Lutz 6'0, 190 SR 57 43.9 4 10 14 42.1%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
San Jose State Austin Lopez 6'0, 209 SR 39 61.2 19 48.7% 0 4 2 0
San Jose State Bryce Crawford 6'3, 220 FR 22 57.9 6 27.3% 0 1 1 0
Georgia State Wil Lutz 6'0, 190 SR 62 63.0 34 54.8% 1 0 2 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
San Jose State Austin Lopez 6'0, 209 SR 33-35 8-15 53.3%
San Jose State Bryce Crawford 6'3, 220 FR 6-7 1-2 50.0%
Georgia State Wil Lutz 6'0, 190 SR 40-41 12-19 63.2%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
San Jose State Tyler Ervin 5'10, 177 SR 25 23.9 0 0 0 (0)
San Jose State Thomas Tucker 5'10, 197 SO 2 14.0 0 0 0 (0)
Georgia State Marquan Greene 5'10, 180 FR 16 24.3 1 0 0 (0)
Georgia State Glenn Smith 6'1, 185 SO 7 21.6 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
San Jose State Tyler Ervin 5'10, 177 SR 4 1.8 0 32 1 (1)
San Jose State Tim Crawley 5'7, 170 JR 1 7.0 0 1 0 (0)
Georgia State Donovan Harden 5'11, 175 SR 3 0.3 0 20 1 (0)
Georgia State Avery Sweeting 5'8, 160 SR 2 14.0 0 3 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics