2015 New Orleans Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Louisiana Tech vs. Arkansas State

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Arkansas State Red Wolves (9-3) vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-4)

December 19 ( 9:00 PM ET, ESPN ), Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans

Spread: Louisiana Tech -1

S&P+ Projection: Louisiana Tech 33.2, Arkansas State 27.8

Team Sites: Underdog Dynasty (ASU), Underdog Dynasty (LT)

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.}

_{Statistical profiles index.}

_{Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	Arkansas State		Louisiana Tech
S&P+ (Rk)	78		60
Category	Arkansas State offense	Louisiana Tech defense	Louisiana Tech offense	Arkansas State defense
Yards per play (Rk)	5.73 (41)	5.04 (42)	6.47 (14)	5.31 (63)
Yards per game (Rk)	444.3 (36)	369.1 (48)	472.4 (23)	399.0 (68)
Points per possession (Rk)	2.73 (26)	1.99 (57)	2.83 (20)	1.84 (47)
Category	Arkansas State offense	Louisiana Tech defense	Louisiana Tech offense	Arkansas State defense
S&P+ (Rk)	28.5 (70)	29.8 (78)	34.0 (32)	29.6 (77)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	110.2 (31)	112.8 (29)	105.8 (54)	99.1 (72)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	96.1 (82)	91.7 (94)	107.7 (46)	110.4 (31)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	104.4 (51)	98.5 (70)	112.4 (28)	98.0 (76)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	100.0 (67)	106.9 (51)	99.0 (72)	118.8 (18)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	101.8 (73)	92.0 (93)	123.5 (16)	108.9 (36)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	95.2 (91)	117.1 (25)	112.9 (33)	94.0 (88)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	108.4 (47)	96.1 (84)	97.3 (85)	108.2 (42)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	107.7 (43)	95.2 (83)	102.7 (69)	103.7 (56)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

Arkansas State

1. Field Position (No. 2 offense vs. No. 100 defense)
2. Field Position (No. 9 defense vs. No. 77 offense)
3. Run Stuffs (No. 35 defense vs. No. 90 offense)
4. Adj. Line Yards (No. 45 defense vs. No. 99 offense)
5. Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 18 defense vs. No. 72 offense)

Louisiana Tech

1. Run Stuffs (No. 8 defense vs. No. 90 offense)
2. Adj. Line Yards (No. 6 defense vs. No. 75 offense)
3. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 25 offense vs. No. 92 defense)
4. Q2 S&P+ (No. 28 vs. No. 90 )
5. First Down S&P+ (No. 25 offense vs. No. 87 defense)

Five Factors

Category	Arkansas State offense	Louisiana Tech defense	Louisiana Tech offense	Arkansas State defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.27 (58)	1.26 (73)	1.32 (35)	1.43 (120)
EFFICIENCY	43.9% (40)	39.4% (53)	48.5% (14)	34.5% (12)
FIELD POSITION	34.9 (2)	31.2 (100)	29.5 (77)	26.4 (9)
FINISHING DRIVES	5.2 (26)	4.6 (58)	5.4 (12)	5.0 (99)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: Arkansas State 3.61 (35) Louisiana Tech 3.80 (33)		ACTUAL Arkansas State 11 (11) Louisiana Tech -2 (80)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Arkansas State offense	Louisiana Tech offense
Adj. Pace	5.1 (24)	-3.5 (96)
Plays per game	77.5 (37)	73.0 (65)
Possessions per game	15.0 (1)	13.0 (70)
Std. Downs Run Rate	67.7% (23)	49.9% (115)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	41.4% (23)	24.7% (114)
% of solo tackles	79.3% (34)	78.5% (39)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Arkansas State defense	Louisiana Tech defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	50.3% (125)	55.6% (110)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	30.3% (100)	24.9% (124)
Overall Havoc Rate	18.5% (28)	18.6% (27)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	9.9% (57)	10.4% (43)
DB Havoc Rate	8.2% (14)	8.0% (17)
PD to INC	34.0% (53)	34.8% (46)

When Arkansas State has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Arkansas State Offense		Louisiana Tech Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	104.4	51	98.5	70	Arkansas State
Standard Downs Success Rate	49.0	37	45.2	54	Arkansas State
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.15	43	1.31	64	Arkansas State
SD Line Yards per Carry	2.86	71	2.37	11	Louisiana Tech big
SD Sack Rate	3.2%	32	4.9%	71	Arkansas State

Passing Downs

	Arkansas State Offense		Louisiana Tech Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	100.0	67	106.9	51	Louisiana Tech
Passing Downs Success Rate	32.0	54	28.2	39	Louisiana Tech
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.73	78	1.77	75
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.14	78	2.14	4	Louisiana Tech big
PD Sack Rate	9.2%	93	5.6%	98

When Louisiana Tech has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Louisiana Tech Offense		Arkansas State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	112.4	28	98.0	76	Louisiana Tech
Standard Downs Success Rate	54.8	6	41.2	19	Louisiana Tech
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.19	33	1.09	124	Louisiana Tech big
SD Line Yards per Carry	2.95	59	2.56	24	Arkansas State
SD Sack Rate	3.3%	36	5.2%	57	Louisiana Tech

Passing Downs

	Louisiana Tech Offense		Arkansas State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	99.0	72	118.8	18	Arkansas State big
Passing Downs Success Rate	33.9	38	23.5	11	Arkansas State
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.80	54	1.80	68	Louisiana Tech
PD Line Yards per Carry	2.57	111	2.74	22	Arkansas State big
PD Sack Rate	7.1%	62	8.4%	41	Arkansas State

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Arkansas State	Fredi Knighten	5'11, 189	SR	122	223	1698	19	7	54.7%	14	5.9%	6.6
Arkansas State	James Tabary	6'2, 195	FR	65	105	788	4	6	61.9%	10	8.7%	6.2
Arkansas State	Cameron Birse	6'2, 213	SO	4	4	37	0	0	100.0%	0	0.0%	9.3
Louisiana Tech	Jeff Driskel	6'4, 231	SR	255	412	3575	24	8	61.9%	18	4.2%	8.1
Louisiana Tech	Ryan Higgins	6'2, 212	JR	15	25	138	1	3	60.0%	1	3.8%	5.0
Louisiana Tech	Price Wilson	6'1, 223	FR	1	3	30	0	0	33.3%	0	0.0%	10.0

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
Arkansas State	Michael Gordon	RB	5'9, 187	SR	165	1060	9	6.4	6.6	43.6%
Arkansas State	Fredi Knighten	QB	5'11, 189	SR	111	492	4	4.4	3.7	45.0%
Arkansas State	Warren Wand	RB	5'5, 174	FR	105	641	4	6.1	6.4	44.8%
Arkansas State	Johnston White	RB	5'11, 180	SO	90	575	14	6.4	6.9	42.2%
Louisiana Tech	Kenneth Dixon	RB	5'10, 213	SR	176	968	17	5.5	7.1	38.1%
Louisiana Tech	Jeff Driskel	QB	6'4, 231	SR	66	415	5	6.3	5.8	48.5%
Louisiana Tech	Jarred Craft	RB	6'0, 212	SO	58	230	1	4.0	2.4	36.2%
Louisiana Tech	Boston Scott	RB	5'6, 190	SO	30	169	0	5.6	4.4	43.3%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
Arkansas State	J.D. McKissic	WR	5'11, 193	SR	61	49	499	2	10.2	8.2	80.3%
Arkansas State	Tres Houston	WR	6'2, 188	SR	51	33	568	10	17.2	11.1	64.7%
Arkansas State	Dijon Paschal	WR	6'1, 196	SO	46	27	524	3	19.4	11.4	58.7%
Arkansas State	Tyler Trosin	WR	5'11, 180	SR	23	8	113	0	14.1	4.9	34.8%
Arkansas State	Michael Gordon	RB	5'9, 187	SR	20	13	81	2	6.2	4.1	65.0%
Arkansas State	Darion Griswold	TE	6'5, 264	SR	19	13	187	2	14.4	9.8	68.4%
Arkansas State	Booker Mays	WR	5'11, 170	SR	17	7	74	0	10.6	4.4	41.2%
Louisiana Tech	Trent Taylor	WR	5'8, 180	JR	118	89	1133	8	12.7	9.6	75.4%
Louisiana Tech	Paul Turner	WR	5'11, 196	SR	66	40	560	3	14.0	8.5	60.6%
Louisiana Tech	Carlos Henderson	WR	5'11, 194	SO	64	35	721	5	20.6	11.3	54.7%
Louisiana Tech	Kenneth Dixon	RB	5'10, 213	SR	39	28	354	5	12.6	9.1	71.8%
Louisiana Tech	Kameron McKnight	WR	6'2, 225	FR	37	22	268	0	12.2	7.2	59.5%
Louisiana Tech	Marcus Gaines	WR	5'6, 158	SO	33	16	309	2	19.3	9.4	48.5%
Louisiana Tech	Marlon Watts	WR	6'2, 187	SO	27	16	144	1	9.0	5.3	59.3%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Arkansas State	Khari Lain	LB	5'10, 185	SO	58.0	9.4%	5.5	2.0	1	2	0	0
Arkansas State	Xavier Woodson	LB	6'1, 214	JR	50.0	8.1%	5.5	1.0	2	3	2	0
Arkansas State	Cody Brown	DB	6'2, 204	JR	45.0	7.3%	1.0	0.0	3	9	0	0
Arkansas State	Chris Humes	DB	5'11, 207	SR	36.5	5.9%	0.5	0.0	2	6	0	0
Arkansas State	Rocky Hayes	DB	5'11, 177	SR	34.0	5.5%	1.0	0.0	6	4	0	0
Arkansas State	Money Hunter	DB	6'1, 193	JR	33.5	5.4%	1.0	0.0	3	4	1	0
Arkansas State	Charleston Girley	DB	6'0, 196	SR	29.0	4.7%	2.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Arkansas State	Ja'Von Rolland-Jones	DE	6'2, 224	SO	25.5	4.1%	11.5	8.5	1	0	4	0
Arkansas State	Chris Stone	DE	6'3, 252	SR	23.5	3.8%	7.5	1.5	1	2	0	2
Arkansas State	Justin Clifton	DB	6'0, 207	FR	23.5	3.8%	4.5	1.0	1	1	1	0
Arkansas State	Austin Copeland	LB	6'1, 200	SR	23.0	3.7%	4.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Arkansas State	Waylon Roberson	DL	6'2, 338	JR	22.5	3.6%	2.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Arkansas State	Quanterio Heath	LB	6'2, 210	JR	20.5	3.3%	1.0	0.5	1	0	0	0
Louisiana Tech	Beau Fitte	LB	6'0, 218	SR	76.0	11.5%	6.0	0.0	2	1	1	0
Louisiana Tech	Nick Thomason	LB	6'1, 243	SR	56.5	8.5%	12.5	0.5	1	2	1	0
Louisiana Tech	Kentrell Brice	S	5'11, 197	SR	49.5	7.5%	3.0	1.0	1	8	0	0
Louisiana Tech	C.J. Cleveland	LB	6'1, 215	SR	44.0	6.7%	0.5	0.0	0	3	2	0
Louisiana Tech	Bryson Abraham	CB	5'9, 182	SR	42.5	6.4%	2.0	1.0	3	14	1	1
Louisiana Tech	Xavier Woods	S	5'11, 203	JR	41.5	6.3%	7.0	0.0	2	3	2	0
Louisiana Tech	Adairius Barnes	CB	5'11, 189	SR	39.0	5.9%	1.5	0.0	0	11	1	0
Louisiana Tech	Vernon Butler	DT	6'3, 316	SR	37.5	5.7%	10.0	3.0	0	1	0	0
Louisiana Tech	Vontarrius Dora	DE	6'4, 262	SR	36.0	5.4%	7.5	5.0	0	1	2	0
Louisiana Tech	Jaylon Ferguson	DE	6'5, 256	FR	27.5	4.2%	14.0	6.0	0	1	2	0
Louisiana Tech	Lloyd Grogan	S	6'1, 212	JR	24.0	3.6%	0.0	0.0	1	3	0	0
Louisiana Tech	Russell Farris	LB	5'11, 217	SO	18.5	2.8%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Louisiana Tech	Aaron Brown	DL	6'1, 270	JR	18.0	2.7%	4.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Arkansas State	Luke Ferguson	6'0, 210	SR	67	42.9	6	21	30	76.1%
Louisiana Tech	Gerald Shouse	6'1, 199	JR	48	40.7	2	17	21	79.2%
Louisiana Tech	Logan McPherson	5'10, 178	JR	4	33.3	0	0	1	25.0%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
Arkansas State	Luke Ferguson	6'0, 210	SR	87	62.4	37	42.5%	0	3	1	0
Arkansas State	Tres Houston	6'2, 188	SR	1	70.0	1	100.0%	0	0	0	0
Louisiana Tech	Jonathan Barnes	5'9, 168	SO	78	59.3	19	24.4%	0	5	1	0
Louisiana Tech	Kyle Fischer	5'11, 213	JR	2	58.5	0	0.0%	0	1	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
Arkansas State	JD Houston	5'11, 165	JR	41-43	10-12	83.3%
Arkansas State	Drew White	5'8, 195	JR	19-20	1-3	33.3%
Louisiana Tech	Jonathan Barnes	5'9, 168	SO	55-55	18-22	81.8%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Arkansas State	J.D. McKissic	5'11, 193	SR	24	26.5	1	0	1 (1)
Arkansas State	Tyler Trosin	5'11, 180	SR	5	10.8	0	0	1 (0)
Louisiana Tech	Carlos Henderson	5'11, 194	SO	21	22.0	0	0	1 (1)
Louisiana Tech	Jaqwis Dancy	5'11, 190	FR	17	17.4	0	0	0 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Arkansas State	Blaise Taylor	5'9, 170	SO	22	12.8	1	15	0 (0)
Arkansas State	Chris Murray	5'9, 178	JR	10	9.1	0	5	3 (0)
Louisiana Tech	Trent Taylor	5'8, 180	JR	12	7.2	0	21	2 (1)
Louisiana Tech	Paul Turner	5'11, 196	SR	2	32.5	1	1	0 (0)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}