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2015 New Orleans Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Louisiana Tech vs. Arkansas State

Crystal LoGiudice-USA TODAY Sports
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Arkansas State Red Wolves (9-3) vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-4)

December 19 ( 9:00 PM ET, ESPN ), Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
Spread: Louisiana Tech -1
S&P+ Projection: Louisiana Tech 33.2, Arkansas State 27.8
Team Sites: Underdog Dynasty (ASU), Underdog Dynasty (LT)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Statistical profiles index.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Arkansas State Louisiana Tech
S&P+ (Rk) 78 60
Category Arkansas State offense Louisiana Tech defense Louisiana Tech offense Arkansas State defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.73 (41) 5.04 (42) 6.47 (14) 5.31 (63)
Yards per game (Rk) 444.3 (36) 369.1 (48) 472.4 (23) 399.0 (68)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.73 (26) 1.99 (57) 2.83 (20) 1.84 (47)
Category Arkansas State offense Louisiana Tech defense Louisiana Tech offense Arkansas State defense
S&P+ (Rk) 28.5 (70) 29.8 (78) 34.0 (32) 29.6 (77)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 110.2 (31) 112.8 (29) 105.8 (54) 99.1 (72)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 96.1 (82) 91.7 (94) 107.7 (46) 110.4 (31)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 104.4 (51) 98.5 (70) 112.4 (28) 98.0 (76)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 100.0 (67) 106.9 (51) 99.0 (72) 118.8 (18)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 101.8 (73) 92.0 (93) 123.5 (16) 108.9 (36)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 95.2 (91) 117.1 (25) 112.9 (33) 94.0 (88)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 108.4 (47) 96.1 (84) 97.3 (85) 108.2 (42)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 107.7 (43) 95.2 (83) 102.7 (69) 103.7 (56)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Arkansas State

  1. Field Position (No. 2 offense vs. No. 100 defense)
  2. Field Position (No. 9 defense vs. No. 77 offense)
  3. Run Stuffs (No. 35 defense vs. No. 90 offense)
  4. Adj. Line Yards (No. 45 defense vs. No. 99 offense)
  5. Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 18 defense vs. No. 72 offense)

Louisiana Tech

  1. Run Stuffs (No. 8 defense vs. No. 90 offense)
  2. Adj. Line Yards (No. 6 defense vs. No. 75 offense)
  3. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 25 offense vs. No. 92 defense)
  4. Q2 S&P+ (No. 28 vs. No. 90 )
  5. First Down S&P+ (No. 25 offense vs. No. 87 defense)
Five Factors
Category Arkansas State offense Louisiana Tech defense Louisiana Tech offense Arkansas State defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.27 (58) 1.26 (73) 1.32 (35) 1.43 (120)
EFFICIENCY 43.9% (40) 39.4% (53) 48.5% (14) 34.5% (12)
FIELD POSITION 34.9 (2) 31.2 (100) 29.5 (77) 26.4 (9)
FINISHING DRIVES 5.2 (26) 4.6 (58) 5.4 (12) 5.0 (99)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Arkansas State 3.61 (35)
Louisiana Tech 3.80 (33)
ACTUAL
Arkansas State 11 (11)
Louisiana Tech -2 (80)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Arkansas State offense Louisiana Tech offense
Adj. Pace 5.1 (24) -3.5 (96)
Plays per game 77.5 (37) 73.0 (65)
Possessions per game 15.0 (1) 13.0 (70)
Std. Downs Run Rate 67.7% (23) 49.9% (115)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 41.4% (23) 24.7% (114)
% of solo tackles 79.3% (34) 78.5% (39)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Arkansas State defense Louisiana Tech defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 50.3% (125) 55.6% (110)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 30.3% (100) 24.9% (124)
Overall Havoc Rate 18.5% (28) 18.6% (27)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 9.9% (57) 10.4% (43)
DB Havoc Rate 8.2% (14) 8.0% (17)
PD to INC 34.0% (53) 34.8% (46)

When Arkansas State has the ball…

Standard Downs
Arkansas State Offense Louisiana Tech Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 104.4 51 98.5 70 Arkansas State
Standard Downs Success Rate 49.0 37 45.2 54 Arkansas State
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.15 43 1.31 64 Arkansas State
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.86 71 2.37 11 Louisiana Tech big
SD Sack Rate 3.2% 32 4.9% 71 Arkansas State
Passing Downs
Arkansas State Offense Louisiana Tech Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 100.0 67 106.9 51 Louisiana Tech
Passing Downs Success Rate 32.0 54 28.2 39 Louisiana Tech
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.73 78 1.77 75
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.14 78 2.14 4 Louisiana Tech big
PD Sack Rate 9.2% 93 5.6% 98

When Louisiana Tech has the ball…

Standard Downs
Louisiana Tech Offense Arkansas State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 112.4 28 98.0 76 Louisiana Tech
Standard Downs Success Rate 54.8 6 41.2 19 Louisiana Tech
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.19 33 1.09 124 Louisiana Tech big
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.95 59 2.56 24 Arkansas State
SD Sack Rate 3.3% 36 5.2% 57 Louisiana Tech
Passing Downs
Louisiana Tech Offense Arkansas State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 99.0 72 118.8 18 Arkansas State big
Passing Downs Success Rate 33.9 38 23.5 11 Arkansas State
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.80 54 1.80 68 Louisiana Tech
PD Line Yards per Carry 2.57 111 2.74 22 Arkansas State big
PD Sack Rate 7.1% 62 8.4% 41 Arkansas State
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Arkansas State Fredi Knighten 5'11, 189 SR 122 223 1698 19 7 54.7% 14 5.9% 6.6
Arkansas State James Tabary 6'2, 195 FR 65 105 788 4 6 61.9% 10 8.7% 6.2
Arkansas State Cameron Birse 6'2, 213 SO 4 4 37 0 0 100.0% 0 0.0% 9.3
Louisiana Tech Jeff Driskel 6'4, 231 SR 255 412 3575 24 8 61.9% 18 4.2% 8.1
Louisiana Tech Ryan Higgins 6'2, 212 JR 15 25 138 1 3 60.0% 1 3.8% 5.0
Louisiana Tech Price Wilson 6'1, 223 FR 1 3 30 0 0 33.3% 0 0.0% 10.0
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Arkansas State Michael Gordon RB 5'9, 187 SR 165 1060 9 6.4 6.6 43.6%
Arkansas State Fredi Knighten QB 5'11, 189 SR 111 492 4 4.4 3.7 45.0%
Arkansas State Warren Wand RB 5'5, 174 FR 105 641 4 6.1 6.4 44.8%
Arkansas State Johnston White RB 5'11, 180 SO 90 575 14 6.4 6.9 42.2%
Louisiana Tech Kenneth Dixon RB 5'10, 213 SR 176 968 17 5.5 7.1 38.1%
Louisiana Tech Jeff Driskel QB 6'4, 231 SR 66 415 5 6.3 5.8 48.5%
Louisiana Tech Jarred Craft RB 6'0, 212 SO 58 230 1 4.0 2.4 36.2%
Louisiana Tech Boston Scott RB 5'6, 190 SO 30 169 0 5.6 4.4 43.3%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Arkansas State J.D. McKissic WR 5'11, 193 SR 61 49 499 2 10.2 8.2 80.3%
Arkansas State Tres Houston WR 6'2, 188 SR 51 33 568 10 17.2 11.1 64.7%
Arkansas State Dijon Paschal WR 6'1, 196 SO 46 27 524 3 19.4 11.4 58.7%
Arkansas State Tyler Trosin WR 5'11, 180 SR 23 8 113 0 14.1 4.9 34.8%
Arkansas State Michael Gordon RB 5'9, 187 SR 20 13 81 2 6.2 4.1 65.0%
Arkansas State Darion Griswold TE 6'5, 264 SR 19 13 187 2 14.4 9.8 68.4%
Arkansas State Booker Mays WR 5'11, 170 SR 17 7 74 0 10.6 4.4 41.2%
Louisiana Tech Trent Taylor WR 5'8, 180 JR 118 89 1133 8 12.7 9.6 75.4%
Louisiana Tech Paul Turner WR 5'11, 196 SR 66 40 560 3 14.0 8.5 60.6%
Louisiana Tech Carlos Henderson WR 5'11, 194 SO 64 35 721 5 20.6 11.3 54.7%
Louisiana Tech Kenneth Dixon RB 5'10, 213 SR 39 28 354 5 12.6 9.1 71.8%
Louisiana Tech Kameron McKnight WR 6'2, 225 FR 37 22 268 0 12.2 7.2 59.5%
Louisiana Tech Marcus Gaines WR 5'6, 158 SO 33 16 309 2 19.3 9.4 48.5%
Louisiana Tech Marlon Watts WR 6'2, 187 SO 27 16 144 1 9.0 5.3 59.3%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Arkansas State Khari Lain LB 5'10, 185 SO 58.0 9.4% 5.5 2.0 1 2 0 0
Arkansas State Xavier Woodson LB 6'1, 214 JR 50.0 8.1% 5.5 1.0 2 3 2 0
Arkansas State Cody Brown DB 6'2, 204 JR 45.0 7.3% 1.0 0.0 3 9 0 0
Arkansas State Chris Humes DB 5'11, 207 SR 36.5 5.9% 0.5 0.0 2 6 0 0
Arkansas State Rocky Hayes DB 5'11, 177 SR 34.0 5.5% 1.0 0.0 6 4 0 0
Arkansas State Money Hunter DB 6'1, 193 JR 33.5 5.4% 1.0 0.0 3 4 1 0
Arkansas State Charleston Girley DB 6'0, 196 SR 29.0 4.7% 2.5 0.5 0 0 0 0
Arkansas State Ja'Von Rolland-Jones DE 6'2, 224 SO 25.5 4.1% 11.5 8.5 1 0 4 0
Arkansas State Chris Stone DE 6'3, 252 SR 23.5 3.8% 7.5 1.5 1 2 0 2
Arkansas State Justin Clifton DB 6'0, 207 FR 23.5 3.8% 4.5 1.0 1 1 1 0
Arkansas State Austin Copeland LB 6'1, 200 SR 23.0 3.7% 4.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Arkansas State Waylon Roberson DL 6'2, 338 JR 22.5 3.6% 2.5 0.0 0 0 1 0
Arkansas State Quanterio Heath LB 6'2, 210 JR 20.5 3.3% 1.0 0.5 1 0 0 0
Louisiana Tech Beau Fitte LB 6'0, 218 SR 76.0 11.5% 6.0 0.0 2 1 1 0
Louisiana Tech Nick Thomason LB 6'1, 243 SR 56.5 8.5% 12.5 0.5 1 2 1 0
Louisiana Tech Kentrell Brice S 5'11, 197 SR 49.5 7.5% 3.0 1.0 1 8 0 0
Louisiana Tech C.J. Cleveland LB 6'1, 215 SR 44.0 6.7% 0.5 0.0 0 3 2 0
Louisiana Tech Bryson Abraham CB 5'9, 182 SR 42.5 6.4% 2.0 1.0 3 14 1 1
Louisiana Tech Xavier Woods S 5'11, 203 JR 41.5 6.3% 7.0 0.0 2 3 2 0
Louisiana Tech Adairius Barnes CB 5'11, 189 SR 39.0 5.9% 1.5 0.0 0 11 1 0
Louisiana Tech Vernon Butler DT 6'3, 316 SR 37.5 5.7% 10.0 3.0 0 1 0 0
Louisiana Tech Vontarrius Dora DE 6'4, 262 SR 36.0 5.4% 7.5 5.0 0 1 2 0
Louisiana Tech Jaylon Ferguson DE 6'5, 256 FR 27.5 4.2% 14.0 6.0 0 1 2 0
Louisiana Tech Lloyd Grogan S 6'1, 212 JR 24.0 3.6% 0.0 0.0 1 3 0 0
Louisiana Tech Russell Farris LB 5'11, 217 SO 18.5 2.8% 1.5 1.0 0 0 0 0
Louisiana Tech Aaron Brown DL 6'1, 270 JR 18.0 2.7% 4.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Arkansas State Luke Ferguson 6'0, 210 SR 67 42.9 6 21 30 76.1%
Louisiana Tech Gerald Shouse 6'1, 199 JR 48 40.7 2 17 21 79.2%
Louisiana Tech Logan McPherson 5'10, 178 JR 4 33.3 0 0 1 25.0%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Arkansas State Luke Ferguson 6'0, 210 SR 87 62.4 37 42.5% 0 3 1 0
Arkansas State Tres Houston 6'2, 188 SR 1 70.0 1 100.0% 0 0 0 0
Louisiana Tech Jonathan Barnes 5'9, 168 SO 78 59.3 19 24.4% 0 5 1 0
Louisiana Tech Kyle Fischer 5'11, 213 JR 2 58.5 0 0.0% 0 1 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Arkansas State JD Houston 5'11, 165 JR 41-43 10-12 83.3%
Arkansas State Drew White 5'8, 195 JR 19-20 1-3 33.3%
Louisiana Tech Jonathan Barnes 5'9, 168 SO 55-55 18-22 81.8%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Arkansas State J.D. McKissic 5'11, 193 SR 24 26.5 1 0 1 (1)
Arkansas State Tyler Trosin 5'11, 180 SR 5 10.8 0 0 1 (0)
Louisiana Tech Carlos Henderson 5'11, 194 SO 21 22.0 0 0 1 (1)
Louisiana Tech Jaqwis Dancy 5'11, 190 FR 17 17.4 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Arkansas State Blaise Taylor 5'9, 170 SO 22 12.8 1 15 0 (0)
Arkansas State Chris Murray 5'9, 178 JR 10 9.1 0 5 3 (0)
Louisiana Tech Trent Taylor 5'8, 180 JR 12 7.2 0 21 2 (1)
Louisiana Tech Paul Turner 5'11, 196 SR 2 32.5 1 1 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics