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2015 Poinsettia Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Northern Illinois vs. Boise State

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Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl

Boise State Broncos (8-4) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (8-5)

December 23 ( 4:30 PM ET, ESPN ), Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego
Spread: Boise State -8
S&P+ Projection: Boise State 27.8, Northern Illinois 26.2
Team Sites: One Bronco Nation Under God, Hustle Belt (NIU)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Statistical profiles index.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Boise State Northern Illinois
S&P+ (Rk) 59 63
Category Boise State offense Northern Illinois defense Northern Illinois offense Boise State defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.88 (35) 4.80 (30) 5.34 (70) 4.93 (36)
Yards per game (Rk) 502.7 (15) 398.5 (67) 419.5 (46) 340.3 (22)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.60 (35) 1.76 (37) 2.34 (56) 1.52 (20)
Category Boise State offense Northern Illinois defense Northern Illinois offense Boise State defense
S&P+ (Rk) 30.1 (57) 24.7 (42) 27.7 (77) 25.5 (51)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 99.8 (76) 101.7 (64) 96.2 (93) 118.8 (15)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 98.2 (75) 101.3 (62) 105.0 (52) 102.4 (58)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 101.1 (65) 98.5 (71) 97.4 (84) 114.4 (21)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 96.6 (83) 110.3 (34) 100.2 (65) 92.7 (91)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 103.6 (66) 104.3 (44) 96.6 (89) 133.5 (8)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 97.2 (84) 108.5 (52) 93.9 (96) 95.2 (83)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 111.8 (40) 90.3 (102) 106.4 (55) 133.1 (10)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 103.8 (64) 130.1 (7) 110.8 (36) 103.9 (54)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Boise State

  1. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 21 offense vs. No. 121 defense)
  2. Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 6 defense vs. No. 87 offense)
  3. Rushing S&P+ (No. 15 defense vs. No. 93 offense)
  4. First Down S&P+ (No. 9 defense vs. No. 85 offense)
  5. Adj. Line Yards (No. 8 defense vs. No. 83 offense)

Northern Illinois

  1. Redzone S&P+ (No. 23 defense vs. No. 96 offense)
  2. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 37 offense vs. No. 95 defense)
  3. Q4 S&P+ (No. 5 vs. No. 60 )
  4. Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 34 defense vs. No. 83 offense)
  5. Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 37 defense vs. No. 84 offense)
Five Factors
Category Boise State offense Northern Illinois defense Northern Illinois offense Boise State defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.29 (50) 1.16 (21) 1.24 (77) 1.56 (126)
EFFICIENCY 43.6% (44) 40.5% (64) 41.0% (76) 33.2% (8)
FIELD POSITION 31.9 (30) 31.7 (105) 31.8 (32) 27.4 (21)
FINISHING DRIVES 4.4 (88) 3.8 (12) 5.0 (40) 4.6 (57)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Boise State 2.50 (47)
Northern Illinois 1.58 (57)
ACTUAL
Boise State 8 (18)
Northern Illinois 3 (47)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Boise State offense Northern Illinois offense
Adj. Pace 9.1 (9) 6.0 (17)
Plays per game 85.5 (6) 78.5 (31)
Possessions per game 14.5 (9) 14.1 (19)
Std. Downs Run Rate 53.6% (98) 66.8% (27)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 21.4% (122) 39.4% (31)
% of solo tackles 78.3% (40) 79.8% (29)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Boise State defense Northern Illinois defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 57.7% (90) 57.6% (92)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 35.6% (48) 37.1% (32)
Overall Havoc Rate 21.3% (4) 15.0% (85)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 8.5% (91) 7.6% (105)
DB Havoc Rate 9.8% (1) 7.3% (29)
PD to INC 40.1% (12) 38.5% (20)

When Boise State has the ball…

Standard Downs
Boise State Offense Northern Illinois Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 101.1 65 98.5 71
Standard Downs Success Rate 48.3 43 46.2 65 Boise State
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.20 26 1.29 25
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.72 93 3.02 88
SD Sack Rate 5.7% 82 3.5% 106 Boise State
Passing Downs
Boise State Offense Northern Illinois Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 96.6 83 110.3 34 Northern Illinois
Passing Downs Success Rate 32.9 44 28.3 41
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.59 104 2.14 43 Northern Illinois big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.15 76 3.38 82
PD Sack Rate 5.4% 31 6.2% 85 Boise State big

When Northern Illinois has the ball…

Standard Downs
Northern Illinois Offense Boise State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 97.4 84 114.4 21 Boise State big
Standard Downs Success Rate 46.0 71 36.3 4 Boise State big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.08 73 1.01 119 Northern Illinois
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.63 108 2.11 3 Boise State big
SD Sack Rate 5.2% 73 7.1% 14 Boise State big
Passing Downs
Northern Illinois Offense Boise State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 100.2 65 92.7 91 Northern Illinois
Passing Downs Success Rate 29.5 73 27.9 38 Boise State
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.79 60 1.68 125 Northern Illinois big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.22 67 3.22 64
PD Sack Rate 5.8% 37 5.7% 95 Northern Illinois big
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Boise State Brett Rypien 6'2, 199 FR 243 389 2973 17 7 62.5% 18 4.4% 7.0
Boise State Ryan Finley 6'4, 200 SO 46 70 485 1 4 65.7% 6 7.9% 6.0
Boise State Thomas Stuart 5'11, 196 SO 12 18 114 1 0 66.7% 5 21.7% 3.4
Northern Illinois Drew Hare 6'1, 218 JR 164 257 1962 14 4 63.8% 15 5.5% 6.9
Northern Illinois Ryan Graham 6'1, 214 FR 48 81 653 6 3 59.3% 8 9.0% 6.6
Northern Illinois Tommy Fiedler 6'2, 192 FR 21 45 265 2 3 46.7% 4 8.2% 5.1
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Boise State Jeremy McNichols RB 5'9, 205 SO 221 1244 18 5.6 8.5 34.4%
Boise State Kelsey Young RB 5'10, 198 SR 91 457 7 5.0 4.7 35.2%
Boise State Devan Demas RB 5'8, 175 JR 29 171 2 5.9 6.0 48.3%
Boise State Brett Rypien QB 6'2, 199 FR 21 50 1 2.4 2.2 23.8%
Northern Illinois Joel Bouagnon TB 6'2, 226 JR 275 1270 18 4.6 4.5 33.8%
Northern Illinois Drew Hare QB 6'1, 218 JR 89 332 1 3.7 2.9 38.2%
Northern Illinois Jordan Huff TB 5'11, 218 SO 81 640 8 7.9 9.4 43.2%
Northern Illinois Ryan Graham QB 6'1, 214 FR 51 223 0 4.4 3.7 37.3%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Boise State Thomas Sperbeck WR 6'0, 175 JR 130 83 1353 8 16.3 10.4 63.8%
Boise State Chaz Anderson WR 5'10, 186 JR 74 38 535 2 14.1 7.2 51.4%
Boise State Shane Williams-Rhodes WR 5'6, 173 SR 74 54 427 0 7.9 5.8 73.0%
Boise State Jeremy McNichols RB 5'9, 205 SO 52 46 364 5 7.9 7.0 88.5%
Boise State Jake Roh TE 6'3, 229 SO 42 29 319 1 11.0 7.6 69.0%
Boise State Holden Huff TE 6'6, 226 SR 34 17 236 3 13.9 6.9 50.0%
Boise State A.J. Richardson WR 6'0, 205 FR 17 10 113 0 11.3 6.7 58.8%
Northern Illinois Kenny Golladay WR 6'4, 200 JR 118 71 1122 10 15.8 9.5 60.2%
Northern Illinois Tommylee Lewis WR 5'7, 168 SR 53 33 387 3 11.7 7.3 62.3%
Northern Illinois Aregeros Turner WR 5'11, 178 JR 52 39 343 1 8.8 6.6 75.0%
Northern Illinois Juwan Brescacin WR 6'4, 230 SR 42 21 286 1 13.6 6.8 50.0%
Northern Illinois Desroy Maxwell TE 6'2, 255 SR 27 19 213 3 11.2 7.9 70.4%
Northern Illinois Chad Beebe WR 5'9, 184 JR 22 13 193 0 14.9 8.8 59.1%
Northern Illinois Joel Bouagnon TB 6'2, 226 JR 17 13 131 0 10.1 7.7 76.5%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Boise State Darian Thompson S 6'2, 212 SR 49.0 8.0% 7.5 1.0 5 4 2 0
Boise State Ben Weaver WLB 6'0, 228 JR 49.0 8.0% 4.0 0.0 3 0 1 1
Boise State Tanner Vallejo MLB 6'1, 230 JR 44.5 7.3% 8.0 1.0 0 0 2 0
Boise State Chanceller James S 6'2, 216 JR 39.5 6.5% 5.0 2.0 1 6 0 0
Boise State Tyler Gray WLB 6'4, 232 SR 35.5 5.8% 7.0 3.0 0 3 1 0
Boise State Joe Martarano MLB 6'3, 228 SO 32.5 5.3% 2.5 0.0 1 0 0 0
Boise State Jonathan Moxey CB 5'10, 188 JR 32.0 5.2% 1.0 1.0 2 9 0 0
Boise State Donte Deayon CB 5'9, 155 SR 29.5 4.8% 3.0 0.0 4 7 1 0
Boise State Kamalei Correa DL 6'3, 248 JR 27.5 4.5% 8.5 5.0 0 0 2 0
Boise State Tyler Horn DT 6'5, 268 SR 27.0 4.4% 6.5 2.5 1 2 1 1
Boise State Mercy Maston CB 5'11, 208 SR 22.0 3.6% 1.0 0.0 1 2 1 0
Boise State Kameron Miles S 6'1, 215 SO 21.5 3.5% 0.5 0.0 0 3 2 0
Boise State Armand Nance DT 6'0, 306 SR 18.5 3.0% 7.5 3.5 0 0 0 0
Northern Illinois Boomer Mays LB 6'0, 244 SR 88.0 10.9% 5.0 0.5 1 4 1 0
Northern Illinois Marlon Moore S 5'9, 197 SR 79.0 9.7% 1.5 0.0 2 7 2 0
Northern Illinois Brandon Mayes S 5'11, 193 SO 69.0 8.5% 1.0 0.0 3 4 0 0
Northern Illinois Sean Folliard LB 6'2, 231 JR 63.0 7.8% 8.5 1.0 1 4 1 0
Northern Illinois Renard Cheren LB 6'0, 224 FR 49.5 6.1% 5.5 1.5 0 1 0 0
Northern Illinois Bobby Jones IV LB 6'0, 222 SO 42.5 5.2% 4.0 2.0 0 1 0 0
Northern Illinois Paris Logan CB 5'9, 195 SR 42.5 5.2% 2.0 0.0 1 10 0 0
Northern Illinois Shawun Lurry CB 5'8, 178 SO 36.0 4.4% 0.5 0.0 9 14 0 0
Northern Illinois Jamaal Payton LB 6'0, 226 JR 32.5 4.0% 4.5 1.0 0 1 0 0
Northern Illinois Perez Ford DE 6'0, 227 SR 31.5 3.9% 6.5 5.0 0 0 1 0
Northern Illinois Albert Smalls CB 6'1, 197 SO 31.5 3.9% 0.0 0.0 1 9 0 0
Northern Illinois Cameron Clinton-Earl DE 6'1, 258 SR 29.0 3.6% 7.0 3.0 0 1 0 0
Northern Illinois Ladell Fleming DE 6'0, 236 JR 23.0 2.8% 5.0 3.0 0 0 1 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Boise State Sean Wale 6'2, 185 JR 52 42.3 5 20 21 78.8%
Northern Illinois Jacob Ambrose 5'10, 175 JR 65 37.8 3 23 15 58.5%
Northern Illinois Ryan Graham 6'1, 214 FR 4 34.0 2 0 1 25.0%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Boise State Tyler Rausa 5'9, 183 JR 85 62.7 51 60.0% 0 3 2 0
Northern Illinois Christian Hagan 6'0, 189 SO 51 59.2 12 23.5% 0 3 1 0
Northern Illinois Josh Orne 6'0, 218 JR 30 53.7 3 10.0% 0 5 1 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Boise State Tyler Rausa 5'9, 183 JR 52-54 23-28 82.1%
Northern Illinois Christian Hagan 6'0, 189 SO 51-53 14-18 77.8%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Boise State Terrell Johnson 5'9, 173 SR 19 23.0 0 0 0 (0)
Boise State Jeremy McNichols 5'9, 205 SO 5 17.8 0 0 0 (0)
Northern Illinois Aregeros Turner 5'11, 178 JR 40 25.2 1 0 0 (0)
Northern Illinois D.J. Brown 5'9, 182 FR 3 17.7 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Boise State Donte Deayon 5'9, 155 SR 13 3.8 0 16 0 (0)
Boise State Shane Williams-Rhodes 5'6, 173 SR 8 8.9 0 7 1 (0)
Northern Illinois Chad Beebe 5'9, 184 JR 14 8.5 0 17 2 (1)
Northern Illinois Tommylee Lewis 5'7, 168 SR 3 5.3 0 4 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics