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2015 GoDaddy Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Bowling Green vs. Georgia Southern

Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
GoDaddy Bowl

Georgia Southern Eagles (8-4) vs. Bowling Green Eagles (10-3)

December 23 ( 8:00 PM ET, ESPN ), Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile
Spread: Bowling Green -7.5
S&P+ Projection: Bowling Green 35.8, Georgia Southern 26.0
Team Sites: Underdog Dynasty (GS), Hustle Belt (BGSU)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Statistical profiles index.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Georgia Southern Bowling Green
S&P+ (Rk) 53 13
Category Georgia Southern offense Bowling Green defense Bowling Green offense Georgia Southern defense
Yards per play (Rk) 6.02 (31) 5.23 (56) 6.62 (11) 5.31 (65)
Yards per game (Rk) 408.8 (57) 422.3 (94) 565.1 (3) 339.3 (21)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.85 (18) 2.02 (61) 3.26 (5) 1.89 (51)
Category Georgia Southern offense Bowling Green defense Bowling Green offense Georgia Southern defense
S&P+ (Rk) 31.2 (49) 25.6 (52) 41.5 (9) 25.2 (47)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 120.8 (11) 99.1 (70) 129.4 (2) 114.5 (24)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 93.6 (87) 101.3 (63) 120.0 (24) 104.0 (53)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 115.6 (19) 106.9 (40) 114.3 (24) 107.7 (38)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 99.7 (69) 87.3 (106) 154.8 (2) 117.3 (22)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 96.3 (90) 97.5 (71) 127.2 (11) 108.7 (38)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 119.4 (24) 109.4 (49) 131.0 (7) 118.7 (19)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 98.9 (81) 107.2 (50) 129.4 (8) 90.0 (103)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 101.6 (76) 91.5 (105) 114.0 (25) 93.0 (99)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Georgia Southern

  1. Field Position (No. 20 defense vs. No. 89 offense)
  2. Field Position (No. 1 offense vs. No. 60 defense)
  3. Rushing S&P+ (No. 11 offense vs. No. 70 defense)
  4. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 4 defense vs. No. 59 offense)
  5. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 6 offense vs. No. 59 defense)

Bowling Green

  1. Q3 S&P+ (No. 19 vs. No. 99 )
  2. First Down S&P+ (No. 26 offense vs. No. 100 defense)
  3. Redzone S&P+ (No. 42 defense vs. No. 97 offense)
  4. Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 5 offense vs. No. 58 defense)
  5. Redzone S&P+ (No. 6 offense vs. No. 58 defense)
Five Factors
Category Georgia Southern offense Bowling Green defense Bowling Green offense Georgia Southern defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.46 (4) 1.18 (29) 1.26 (63) 1.21 (46)
EFFICIENCY 44.6% (32) 41.8% (69) 50.5% (4) 39.2% (49)
FIELD POSITION 35.5 (1) 29.3 (60) 29.1 (89) 27.4 (20)
FINISHING DRIVES 4.8 (61) 4.4 (42) 5.3 (18) 4.9 (90)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Georgia Southern 6.60 (19)
Bowling Green -1.61 (86)
ACTUAL
Georgia Southern 4 (40)
Bowling Green 14 (5)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Georgia Southern offense Bowling Green offense
Adj. Pace -0.1 (61) 9.3 (8)
Plays per game 67.9 (111) 85.4 (7)
Possessions per game 12.2 (116) 13.3 (57)
Std. Downs Run Rate 88.6% (3) 47.8% (120)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 68.2% (2) 26.2% (105)
% of solo tackles 75.7% (55) 73.5% (77)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Georgia Southern defense Bowling Green defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 55.5% (111) 55.7% (107)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 33.6% (69) 36.6% (39)
Overall Havoc Rate 15.3% (79) 14.9% (86)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 7.8% (101) 9.1% (77)
DB Havoc Rate 7.4% (26) 5.8% (82)
PD to INC 34.9% (44) 29.8% (89)

When Georgia Southern has the ball…

Standard Downs
Georgia Southern Offense Bowling Green Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 115.6 19 106.9 40 Georgia Southern
Standard Downs Success Rate 50.9 25 44.5 50 Georgia Southern
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.35 3 1.13 23 Georgia Southern
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.25 19 2.87 62 Georgia Southern
SD Sack Rate 4.1% 50 5.8% 39 Bowling Green
Passing Downs
Georgia Southern Offense Bowling Green Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 99.7 69 87.3 106 Georgia Southern
Passing Downs Success Rate 28.9 80 36.6 118 Georgia Southern
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.93 28 1.56 25
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.21 68 3.76 116 Georgia Southern
PD Sack Rate 7.3% 66 4.2% 115 Georgia Southern

When Bowling Green has the ball…

Standard Downs
Bowling Green Offense Georgia Southern Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 114.3 24 107.7 38 Bowling Green
Standard Downs Success Rate 53.8 11 44.5 50 Bowling Green
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.02 97 1.01 79 Georgia Southern
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.28 13 2.51 18
SD Sack Rate 4.5% 57 6.2% 27 Georgia Southern
Passing Downs
Bowling Green Offense Georgia Southern Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 154.8 2 117.3 22 Bowling Green
Passing Downs Success Rate 41.8 4 26.2 27 Bowling Green
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.07 11 1.60 17
PD Line Yards per Carry 4.29 4 3.09 52 Bowling Green
PD Sack Rate 7.8% 74 7.1% 71
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Georgia Southern Kevin Ellison 6'0, 190 JR 37 84 532 3 5 44.0% 6 6.7% 5.5
Georgia Southern Favian Upshaw 6'1, 170 JR 18 45 210 0 5 40.0% 2 4.3% 4.2
Georgia Southern
Bowling Green Matt Johnson 6'0, 219 SR 368 535 4700 43 8 68.8% 35 6.1% 7.9
Bowling Green James Knapke 6'2, 237 JR 14 20 173 1 0 70.0% 0 0.0% 8.7
Bowling Green
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Georgia Southern Matt Breida RB 5'10, 190 JR 189 1547 16 8.2 10.9 42.9%
Georgia Southern L.A. Ramsby RB 5'11, 210 SO 153 772 12 5.0 4.2 40.5%
Georgia Southern Kevin Ellison QB 6'0, 190 JR 97 673 8 6.9 8.7 42.3%
Georgia Southern Wesley Fields RB 5'10, 195 FR 92 607 6 6.6 8.5 38.0%
Bowling Green Travis Greene RB 5'10, 189 SR 212 1219 14 5.8 5.0 43.4%
Bowling Green Fred Coppet RB 5'9, 205 JR 136 797 5 5.9 5.4 43.4%
Bowling Green Matt Johnson QB 6'0, 219 SR 70 369 4 5.3 3.1 48.6%
Bowling Green Donovan Wilson RB 6'0, 229 SO 36 78 7 2.2 1.3 13.9%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Georgia Southern BJ Johnson WR 6'1, 212 JR 31 14 232 0 16.6 7.5 45.2%
Georgia Southern Derek Keaton WR 5'10, 180 SR 25 6 49 1 8.2 2.0 24.0%
Georgia Southern Ryan Longoria WR 6'2, 195 SR 20 12 121 0 10.1 6.1 60.0%
Georgia Southern Myles Campbell WR 5'5, 160 SO 15 8 130 0 16.3 8.7 53.3%
Georgia Southern L.A. Ramsby RB 5'11, 210 SO 6 4 14 0 3.5 2.3 66.7%
Georgia Southern Matt Breida RB 5'10, 190 JR 5 3 6 0 2.0 1.2 60.0%
Georgia Southern Wesley Fields RB 5'10, 195 FR 4 3 88 1 29.3 22.0 75.0%
Bowling Green Gehrig Dieter WR 6'3, 207 JR 131 89 957 9 10.8 7.3 67.9%
Bowling Green Roger Lewis WR 6'0, 199 SO 121 82 1476 15 18.0 12.2 67.8%
Bowling Green Ronnie Moore WR 5'9, 170 JR 88 67 871 5 13.0 9.9 76.1%
Bowling Green Ryan Burbrink WR 5'8, 183 SR 79 56 627 4 11.2 7.9 70.9%
Bowling Green Travis Greene RB 5'10, 189 SR 33 28 264 2 9.4 8.0 84.8%
Bowling Green Derek Lee TE 6'4, 258 SR 22 18 108 3 6.0 4.9 81.8%
Bowling Green Teo Redding WR 6'1, 167 SO 20 12 198 3 16.5 9.9 60.0%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Georgia Southern Antwione Williams LB 6'3, 245 SR 72.5 12.7% 10.5 4.0 0 3 4 0
Georgia Southern Deshawntee Gallon LB 5'9, 210 JR 59.0 10.3% 3.5 0.5 0 3 0 0
Georgia Southern Antonio Glover S 6'1, 200 SR 43.0 7.5% 2.0 0.0 6 2 0 0
Georgia Southern Matt Dobson S 6'2, 206 SR 41.0 7.2% 1.5 1.0 2 4 0 0
Georgia Southern Chris DeLaRosa LB 6'1, 230 SO 34.0 5.9% 3.0 1.0 0 0 2 0
Georgia Southern Tay Hicklin S 5'11, 197 SR 32.5 5.7% 0.5 0.0 0 3 0 0
Georgia Southern Darrius White CB 5'11, 185 JR 29.5 5.1% 1.0 0.0 2 9 1 0
Georgia Southern Jamal Johnson DL 6'2, 245 JR 29.0 5.1% 6.5 3.0 0 0 0 0
Georgia Southern Darius Jones CB 5'9, 180 JR 26.0 4.5% 2.0 0.0 2 4 0 0
Georgia Southern Jay Ellison DL 6'1, 310 JR 21.0 3.7% 3.5 2.5 1 0 0 0
Georgia Southern Bernard Dawson DE 6'1, 248 JR 19.0 3.3% 6.0 4.0 0 0 0 0
Georgia Southern Logan Hunt DE 6'1, 247 FR 19.0 3.3% 0.0 0.0 0 0 1 0
Georgia Southern Caleb Williams CB 5'9, 185 SR 16.0 2.8% 0.0 0.0 3 6 0 1
Bowling Green Austin Valdez LB 6'0, 225 SO 94.0 11.8% 10.5 1.0 2 5 0 0
Bowling Green Trenton Greene LB 5'9, 213 SR 88.0 11.0% 6.5 1.0 0 2 0 0
Bowling Green James Sanford LB 6'1, 196 JR 68.0 8.5% 5.5 3.0 1 7 2 0
Bowling Green Eilar Hardy DB 6'0, 188 SR 62.5 7.8% 2.0 0.0 2 2 0 0
Bowling Green Dernard Turner DB 6'0, 191 SR 50.5 6.3% 5.0 0.0 4 4 0 0
Bowling Green Clint Stephens DB 5'10, 182 SO 49.0 6.1% 0.5 0.0 2 7 0 0
Bowling Green Terrance Bush DL 6'2, 252 JR 44.0 5.5% 7.5 6.0 0 0 0 0
Bowling Green Alfonso Mack DB 5'11, 178 JR 43.5 5.5% 3.5 0.0 6 3 0 0
Bowling Green Taylor Royster DL 5'10, 260 SR 38.5 4.8% 10.5 6.0 0 0 1 0
Bowling Green Nilijah Ballew DB 6'0, 210 SO 29.0 3.6% 4.5 1.0 0 2 0 0
Bowling Green Nate Locke LB 6'0, 226 SO 24.0 3.0% 3.0 0.0 0 0 1 0
Bowling Green Zach Colvin DL 6'3, 293 SR 23.5 2.9% 9.5 4.0 0 1 0 0
Bowling Green Ben Hale DB 6'2, 197 SO 21.5 2.7% 1.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Georgia Southern Ryan Nowicki 5'11, 190 SR 29 40.7 2 11 10 72.4%
Georgia Southern Matt Flynn 6'0, 200 SO 8 41.0 1 1 1 25.0%
Bowling Green Joseph Davidson 6'7, 222 SO 49 45.6 3 9 12 42.9%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Georgia Southern Younghoe Koo 5'10, 190 JR 58 62.7 39 67.2% 0 0 0 0
Georgia Southern Alex Hanks 5'9, 185 SR 22 60.2 8 36.4% 0 0 0 0
Bowling Green Tyler Tate 6'0, 181 SR 87 61.9 42 48.3% 0 4 0 0
Bowling Green Nick Fields 5'11, 215 SO 12 45.2 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Georgia Southern Alex Hanks 5'9, 185 SR 31-32 8-10 80.0%
Georgia Southern Younghoe Koo 5'10, 190 JR 20-20 7-9 77.8%
Bowling Green Tyler Tate 6'0, 181 SR 72-77 8-15 53.3%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Georgia Southern Derek Keaton 5'10, 180 SR 34 26.5 0 0 0 (0)
Georgia Southern Montay Crockett 6'0, 180 JR 3 14.7 0 0 0 (0)
Bowling Green Scott Miller 5'10, 162 FR 24 19.0 0 0 0 (0)
Bowling Green Robbie Rhodes 6'0, 190 SO 7 16.1 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Georgia Southern Derek Keaton 5'10, 180 SR 17 15.3 0 7 1 (1)
Georgia Southern Deshawntee Gallon 5'9, 210 JR 2 16.5 0 0 0 (0)
Bowling Green Ryan Burbrink 5'8, 183 SR 11 4.6 0 20 0 (0)
Bowling Green Ronnie Moore 5'9, 170 JR 1 2.0 0 0 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics