2015 Hawaii Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Cincinnati vs. San Diego State

Hawaii Bowl

San Diego State Aztecs (10-3) vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (7-5)

December 24 ( 8:00 PM ET, ESPN ), Aloha Stadium, Honolulu

Spread: Cincinnati -1

S&P+ Projection: San Diego State 32.6, Cincinnati 26.6

Team Sites: MWC Connection (SDSU), Down The Drive

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.}

_{Statistical profiles index.}

_{Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	San Diego State		Cincinnati
S&P+ (Rk)	52		76
Category	San Diego State offense	Cincinnati defense	Cincinnati offense	San Diego State defense
Yards per play (Rk)	5.38 (64)	5.58 (90)	6.47 (15)	4.69 (22)
Yards per game (Rk)	370.2 (91)	413.8 (81)	560.4 (5)	301.5 (9)
Points per possession (Rk)	2.47 (46)	2.24 (80)	2.59 (37)	1.34 (10)
Category	San Diego State offense	Cincinnati defense	Cincinnati offense	San Diego State defense
S&P+ (Rk)	28.3 (72)	33.9 (98)	34.0 (33)	22.2 (29)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	96.7 (92)	82.7 (120)	104.6 (62)	122.2 (10)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	102.3 (64)	99.7 (68)	122.5 (20)	104.3 (52)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	94.8 (95)	89.7 (108)	115.6 (20)	103.6 (52)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	106.2 (51)	99.5 (73)	117.4 (32)	136.2 (6)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	108.4 (49)	87.5 (109)	116.2 (30)	113.5 (31)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	97.4 (83)	92.1 (96)	129.7 (10)	108.9 (51)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	84.7 (110)	103.1 (61)	107.4 (51)	112.6 (36)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	100.7 (81)	89.0 (109)	128.0 (3)	133.9 (6)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

San Diego State

1. Field Position (No. 16 defense vs. No. 121 offense)
2. Run Stuffs (No. 32 offense vs. No. 115 defense)
3. Field Position (No. 8 offense vs. No. 91 defense)
4. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 33 offense vs. No. 113 defense)
5. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 10 defense vs. No. 85 offense)

Cincinnati

1. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 14 defense vs. No. 80 offense)
2. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 30 offense vs. No. 95 defense)
3. Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 44 defense vs. No. 105 offense)
4. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 24 offense vs. No. 62 defense)
5. First Down S&P+ (No. 22 offense vs. No. 58 defense)

Five Factors

Category	San Diego State offense	Cincinnati defense	Cincinnati offense	San Diego State defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.28 (54)	1.36 (106)	1.26 (66)	1.28 (79)
EFFICIENCY	42.5% (60)	40.4% (63)	48.9% (11)	34.6% (14)
FIELD POSITION	33.9 (8)	30.8 (91)	26.8 (121)	27.1 (16)
FINISHING DRIVES	5.6 (5)	4.7 (68)	4.4 (90)	4.5 (48)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: San Diego State 12.95 (1) Cincinnati -3.95 (105)		ACTUAL San Diego State 19 (1) Cincinnati -16 (124)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	San Diego State offense	Cincinnati offense
Adj. Pace	-2.1 (79)	10.0 (4)
Plays per game	68.8 (105)	86.7 (2)
Possessions per game	12.7 (85)	13.9 (23)
Std. Downs Run Rate	81.1% (7)	50.5% (111)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	40.8% (26)	27.9% (91)
% of solo tackles	69.9% (103)	71.4% (92)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	San Diego State defense	Cincinnati defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	65.5% (20)	57.5% (94)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	32.4% (77)	35.6% (48)
Overall Havoc Rate	22.3% (3)	13.2% (112)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	12.7% (10)	6.0% (122)
DB Havoc Rate	9.6% (3)	7.1% (34)
PD to INC	43.0% (1)	31.2% (78)

When San Diego State has the ball…

Standard Downs

	San Diego State Offense		Cincinnati Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	94.8	95	89.7	108	San Diego State
Standard Downs Success Rate	47.7	55	46.6	69	San Diego State
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.08	75	1.12	104	San Diego State
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.06	39	3.15	101	San Diego State big
SD Sack Rate	10.8%	126	2.1%	123

Passing Downs

	San Diego State Offense		Cincinnati Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	106.2	51	99.5	73	San Diego State
Passing Downs Success Rate	30.3	66	27.4	33	Cincinnati
Passing Downs IsoPPP	2.01	15	1.91	109	San Diego State big
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.25	62	3.61	106	San Diego State
PD Sack Rate	5.6%	33	4.3%	113	San Diego State big

When Cincinnati has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Cincinnati Offense		San Diego State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	115.6	20	103.6	52	Cincinnati
Standard Downs Success Rate	54.5	7	42.2	25	Cincinnati
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.13	51	1.20	77	Cincinnati
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.09	32	2.29	8	San Diego State
SD Sack Rate	3.1%	30	4.3%	95	Cincinnati big

Passing Downs

	Cincinnati Offense		San Diego State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	117.4	32	136.2	6	San Diego State
Passing Downs Success Rate	35.6	25	20.4	2	San Diego State
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.73	72	1.93	107	Cincinnati
PD Line Yards per Carry	1.92	127	2.78	28	San Diego State big
PD Sack Rate	6.2%	47	11.6%	14	San Diego State

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
San Diego State	Maxwell Smith	6'5, 235	SR	110	200	1529	13	2	55.0%	18	8.3%	6.5
San Diego State	Christian Chapman	6'0, 200	FR	21	38	323	1	1	55.3%	1	2.6%	8.1
Cincinnati	Gunner Kiel	6'4, 215	JR	206	316	2777	19	11	65.2%	8	2.5%	8.5
Cincinnati	Hayden Moore	6'3, 203	FR	114	195	1683	9	8	58.5%	13	6.3%	7.8
Cincinnati	Luke Wright	6'4, 204	FR	1	3	16	0	0	33.3%	1	25.0%	3.8

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
San Diego State	Donnel Pumphrey	RB	5'9, 180	JR	284	1554	16	5.5	6.8	37.0%
San Diego State	Chase Price	RB	5'8, 200	SR	177	940	6	5.3	4.5	40.7%
San Diego State	Rashaad Penny	RB	5'11, 210	SO	58	351	4	6.1	5.6	44.8%
San Diego State	Dakota Gordon	FB	5'10, 235	SR	34	180	2	5.3	8.7	26.5%
Cincinnati	Tion Green	RB	6'0, 230	JR	141	697	8	4.9	4.0	42.6%
Cincinnati	Hosey Williams	RB	5'9, 202	SR	129	727	4	5.6	5.1	40.3%
Cincinnati	Mike Boone	RB	5'10, 201	SO	96	717	8	7.5	7.8	45.8%
Cincinnati	Hayden Moore	QB	6'3, 203	FR	39	121	2	3.1	3.9	28.2%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
San Diego State	Donnel Pumphrey	RB	5'9, 180	JR	48	27	397	3	14.7	8.3	56.2%
San Diego State	Mikah Holder	WR	6'0, 180	SO	46	23	425	5	18.5	9.2	50.0%
San Diego State	Eric Judge	WR	6'1, 195	JR	29	15	296	2	19.7	10.2	51.7%
San Diego State	Jemond Hazely	WR	6'1, 195	SR	29	20	247	0	12.4	8.5	69.0%
San Diego State	Daniel Brunskill	TE	6'5, 250	JR	19	10	112	2	11.2	5.9	52.6%
San Diego State	Chase Price	RB	5'8, 200	SR	13	11	96	1	8.7	7.4	84.6%
San Diego State	Dakota Gordon	FB	5'10, 235	SR	12	8	109	0	13.6	9.1	66.7%
Cincinnati	Shaq Washington	WR	5'9, 179	SR	124	88	971	6	11.0	7.8	71.0%
Cincinnati	Chris Moore	WR	6'2, 190	SR	68	40	858	7	21.5	12.6	58.8%
Cincinnati	Max Morrison	WR	6'1, 182	SR	61	45	533	3	11.8	8.7	73.8%
Cincinnati	Alex Chisum	WR	6'3, 200	SR	55	34	437	1	12.9	8.0	61.8%
Cincinnati	Mekale McKay	WR	6'5, 210	SR	50	25	494	2	19.8	9.9	50.0%
Cincinnati	Johnny Holton	WR	6'2, 191	SR	29	17	461	5	27.1	15.9	58.6%
Cincinnati	Nate Cole	WR	6'1, 202	JR	26	19	262	1	13.8	10.1	73.1%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
San Diego State	Calvin Munson	LB	6'1, 240	JR	66.5	10.2%	14.5	9.0	2	2	2	1
San Diego State	Damontae Kazee	DB	5'11, 185	JR	61.0	9.4%	5.5	0.0	7	7	2	0
San Diego State	Jake Fely	LB	5'10, 220	SR	57.5	8.8%	8.5	1.5	0	1	3	1
San Diego State	Malik Smith	DB	6'0, 190	JR	56.0	8.6%	4.0	0.0	4	8	1	1
San Diego State	Na'im McGee	DB	6'0, 200	JR	54.5	8.4%	4.5	1.0	0	7	0	0
San Diego State	Alex Barrett	DL	6'3, 260	JR	44.5	6.8%	13.0	5.5	1	1	2	0
San Diego State	Kameron Kelly	DB	6'2, 195	SO	39.5	6.1%	2.0	0.0	2	3	0	0
San Diego State	J.J. Whittaker	DB	5'10, 180	SR	38.0	5.8%	0.5	0.0	3	8	0	0
San Diego State	Jon Sanchez	DL	6'2, 255	SR	29.0	4.5%	8.0	5.5	0	1	0	1
San Diego State	Ryan Dunn	LB	6'3, 235	SO	26.0	4.0%	4.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
San Diego State	Christian Heyward	DL	6'3, 300	SR	22.0	3.4%	5.5	2.0	0	1	1	0
San Diego State	Noble Hall	DL	6'3, 265	FR	14.0	2.2%	6.0	0.5	0	1	1	0
San Diego State	Randy Ricks	LB	6'5, 230	JR	14.0	2.2%	5.0	2.5	0	4	2	0
Cincinnati	Eric Wilson	LB	6'2, 219	JR	75.5	11.4%	3.5	0.0	0	2	1	1
Cincinnati	Zach Edwards	S	6'1, 200	JR	71.0	10.8%	3.5	0.0	3	8	1	0
Cincinnati	Bryce Jenkinson	LB	6'1, 235	FR	41.5	6.3%	3.0	1.0	1	1	1	0
Cincinnati	Kevin Brown	LB	6'1, 226	SR	37.0	5.6%	1.0	0.0	1	2	0	0
Cincinnati	Tyrell Gilbert	S	6'1, 195	FR	34.5	5.2%	1.0	0.0	1	6	0	0
Cincinnati	Linden Stephens	CB	6'0, 180	SO	30.0	4.5%	1.0	0.0	2	1	1	0
Cincinnati	Leviticus Payne	CB	5'10, 192	SR	29.5	4.5%	3.5	0.0	0	3	1	1
Cincinnati	Silverberry Mouhon	DL	6'3, 255	SR	29.0	4.4%	7.0	4.5	0	0	0	0
Cincinnati	Carter Jacobs	S	6'1, 196	SO	26.0	3.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Cincinnati	Mike Tyson	S	6'2, 206	JR	23.5	3.6%	1.0	0.0	0	4	0	0
Cincinnati	Jaylyin Minor	LB	6'1, 241	SO	21.5	3.3%	1.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Cincinnati	Alex Pace	DT	6'2, 295	JR	21.0	3.2%	4.5	0.0	0	1	1	0
Cincinnati	Cortez Broughton	DT	6'2, 297	FR	18.0	2.7%	1.5	0.0	0	2	0	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
San Diego State	Tanner Blain	6'0, 205	JR	73	40.6	8	23	21	60.3%
Cincinnati	Sam Geraci	6'4, 222	SO	38	45.9	5	10	12	57.9%
Cincinnati	Gunner Kiel	6'4, 215	JR	2	48.0	0	0	2	100.0%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
San Diego State	Donny Hageman	6'1, 175	SR	79	63.0	23	29.1%	0	4	0	0
Cincinnati	Andrew Gantz	5'9, 170	SO	83	62.9	30	36.1%	1	3	1	0
Cincinnati	Ryan Jones	5'10, 170	FR	1	64.0	0	0.0%	0	0	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
San Diego State	Donny Hageman	6'1, 175	SR	51-51	17-22	77.3%
Cincinnati	Andrew Gantz	5'9, 170	SO	48-49	21-27	77.8%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
San Diego State	Rashaad Penny	5'11, 210	SO	23	30.6	2	0	0 (0)
San Diego State	Chase Price	5'8, 200	SR	10	18.4	0	0	0 (0)
Cincinnati	Mike Boone	5'10, 201	SO	14	16.5	0	0	0 (0)
Cincinnati	Johnny Holton	6'2, 191	SR	10	22.0	0	0	0 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
San Diego State	Lloyd Mills	5'10, 175	JR	15	9.5	0	4	3 (2)
San Diego State	Damontae Kazee	5'11, 185	JR	5	14.0	1	16	0 (0)
Cincinnati	Shaq Washington	5'9, 179	SR	12	11.6	0	24	0 (0)
Cincinnati	Max Morrison	6'1, 182	SR	2	3.5	0	2	0 (0)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}