clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

2015 Hawaii Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Cincinnati vs. San Diego State

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Hawaii Bowl

San Diego State Aztecs (10-3) vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (7-5)

December 24 ( 8:00 PM ET, ESPN ), Aloha Stadium, Honolulu
Spread: Cincinnati -1
S&P+ Projection: San Diego State 32.6, Cincinnati 26.6
Team Sites: MWC Connection (SDSU), Down The Drive

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Statistical profiles index.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category San Diego State Cincinnati
S&P+ (Rk) 52 76
Category San Diego State offense Cincinnati defense Cincinnati offense San Diego State defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.38 (64) 5.58 (90) 6.47 (15) 4.69 (22)
Yards per game (Rk) 370.2 (91) 413.8 (81) 560.4 (5) 301.5 (9)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.47 (46) 2.24 (80) 2.59 (37) 1.34 (10)
Category San Diego State offense Cincinnati defense Cincinnati offense San Diego State defense
S&P+ (Rk) 28.3 (72) 33.9 (98) 34.0 (33) 22.2 (29)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 96.7 (92) 82.7 (120) 104.6 (62) 122.2 (10)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 102.3 (64) 99.7 (68) 122.5 (20) 104.3 (52)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 94.8 (95) 89.7 (108) 115.6 (20) 103.6 (52)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 106.2 (51) 99.5 (73) 117.4 (32) 136.2 (6)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 108.4 (49) 87.5 (109) 116.2 (30) 113.5 (31)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 97.4 (83) 92.1 (96) 129.7 (10) 108.9 (51)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 84.7 (110) 103.1 (61) 107.4 (51) 112.6 (36)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 100.7 (81) 89.0 (109) 128.0 (3) 133.9 (6)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

San Diego State

  1. Field Position (No. 16 defense vs. No. 121 offense)
  2. Run Stuffs (No. 32 offense vs. No. 115 defense)
  3. Field Position (No. 8 offense vs. No. 91 defense)
  4. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 33 offense vs. No. 113 defense)
  5. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 10 defense vs. No. 85 offense)

Cincinnati

  1. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 14 defense vs. No. 80 offense)
  2. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 30 offense vs. No. 95 defense)
  3. Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 44 defense vs. No. 105 offense)
  4. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 24 offense vs. No. 62 defense)
  5. First Down S&P+ (No. 22 offense vs. No. 58 defense)
Five Factors
Category San Diego State offense Cincinnati defense Cincinnati offense San Diego State defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.28 (54) 1.36 (106) 1.26 (66) 1.28 (79)
EFFICIENCY 42.5% (60) 40.4% (63) 48.9% (11) 34.6% (14)
FIELD POSITION 33.9 (8) 30.8 (91) 26.8 (121) 27.1 (16)
FINISHING DRIVES 5.6 (5) 4.7 (68) 4.4 (90) 4.5 (48)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
San Diego State 12.95 (1)
Cincinnati -3.95 (105)
ACTUAL
San Diego State 19 (1)
Cincinnati -16 (124)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) San Diego State offense Cincinnati offense
Adj. Pace -2.1 (79) 10.0 (4)
Plays per game 68.8 (105) 86.7 (2)
Possessions per game 12.7 (85) 13.9 (23)
Std. Downs Run Rate 81.1% (7) 50.5% (111)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 40.8% (26) 27.9% (91)
% of solo tackles 69.9% (103) 71.4% (92)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) San Diego State defense Cincinnati defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 65.5% (20) 57.5% (94)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 32.4% (77) 35.6% (48)
Overall Havoc Rate 22.3% (3) 13.2% (112)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 12.7% (10) 6.0% (122)
DB Havoc Rate 9.6% (3) 7.1% (34)
PD to INC 43.0% (1) 31.2% (78)

When San Diego State has the ball…

Standard Downs
San Diego State Offense Cincinnati Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 94.8 95 89.7 108 San Diego State
Standard Downs Success Rate 47.7 55 46.6 69 San Diego State
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.08 75 1.12 104 San Diego State
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.06 39 3.15 101 San Diego State big
SD Sack Rate 10.8% 126 2.1% 123
Passing Downs
San Diego State Offense Cincinnati Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 106.2 51 99.5 73 San Diego State
Passing Downs Success Rate 30.3 66 27.4 33 Cincinnati
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.01 15 1.91 109 San Diego State big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.25 62 3.61 106 San Diego State
PD Sack Rate 5.6% 33 4.3% 113 San Diego State big

When Cincinnati has the ball…

Standard Downs
Cincinnati Offense San Diego State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 115.6 20 103.6 52 Cincinnati
Standard Downs Success Rate 54.5 7 42.2 25 Cincinnati
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.13 51 1.20 77 Cincinnati
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.09 32 2.29 8 San Diego State
SD Sack Rate 3.1% 30 4.3% 95 Cincinnati big
Passing Downs
Cincinnati Offense San Diego State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 117.4 32 136.2 6 San Diego State
Passing Downs Success Rate 35.6 25 20.4 2 San Diego State
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.73 72 1.93 107 Cincinnati
PD Line Yards per Carry 1.92 127 2.78 28 San Diego State big
PD Sack Rate 6.2% 47 11.6% 14 San Diego State
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
San Diego State Maxwell Smith 6'5, 235 SR 110 200 1529 13 2 55.0% 18 8.3% 6.5
San Diego State Christian Chapman 6'0, 200 FR 21 38 323 1 1 55.3% 1 2.6% 8.1
Cincinnati Gunner Kiel 6'4, 215 JR 206 316 2777 19 11 65.2% 8 2.5% 8.5
Cincinnati Hayden Moore 6'3, 203 FR 114 195 1683 9 8 58.5% 13 6.3% 7.8
Cincinnati Luke Wright 6'4, 204 FR 1 3 16 0 0 33.3% 1 25.0% 3.8
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
San Diego State Donnel Pumphrey RB 5'9, 180 JR 284 1554 16 5.5 6.8 37.0%
San Diego State Chase Price RB 5'8, 200 SR 177 940 6 5.3 4.5 40.7%
San Diego State Rashaad Penny RB 5'11, 210 SO 58 351 4 6.1 5.6 44.8%
San Diego State Dakota Gordon FB 5'10, 235 SR 34 180 2 5.3 8.7 26.5%
Cincinnati Tion Green RB 6'0, 230 JR 141 697 8 4.9 4.0 42.6%
Cincinnati Hosey Williams RB 5'9, 202 SR 129 727 4 5.6 5.1 40.3%
Cincinnati Mike Boone RB 5'10, 201 SO 96 717 8 7.5 7.8 45.8%
Cincinnati Hayden Moore QB 6'3, 203 FR 39 121 2 3.1 3.9 28.2%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
San Diego State Donnel Pumphrey RB 5'9, 180 JR 48 27 397 3 14.7 8.3 56.2%
San Diego State Mikah Holder WR 6'0, 180 SO 46 23 425 5 18.5 9.2 50.0%
San Diego State Eric Judge WR 6'1, 195 JR 29 15 296 2 19.7 10.2 51.7%
San Diego State Jemond Hazely WR 6'1, 195 SR 29 20 247 0 12.4 8.5 69.0%
San Diego State Daniel Brunskill TE 6'5, 250 JR 19 10 112 2 11.2 5.9 52.6%
San Diego State Chase Price RB 5'8, 200 SR 13 11 96 1 8.7 7.4 84.6%
San Diego State Dakota Gordon FB 5'10, 235 SR 12 8 109 0 13.6 9.1 66.7%
Cincinnati Shaq Washington WR 5'9, 179 SR 124 88 971 6 11.0 7.8 71.0%
Cincinnati Chris Moore WR 6'2, 190 SR 68 40 858 7 21.5 12.6 58.8%
Cincinnati Max Morrison WR 6'1, 182 SR 61 45 533 3 11.8 8.7 73.8%
Cincinnati Alex Chisum WR 6'3, 200 SR 55 34 437 1 12.9 8.0 61.8%
Cincinnati Mekale McKay WR 6'5, 210 SR 50 25 494 2 19.8 9.9 50.0%
Cincinnati Johnny Holton WR 6'2, 191 SR 29 17 461 5 27.1 15.9 58.6%
Cincinnati Nate Cole WR 6'1, 202 JR 26 19 262 1 13.8 10.1 73.1%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
San Diego State Calvin Munson LB 6'1, 240 JR 66.5 10.2% 14.5 9.0 2 2 2 1
San Diego State Damontae Kazee DB 5'11, 185 JR 61.0 9.4% 5.5 0.0 7 7 2 0
San Diego State Jake Fely LB 5'10, 220 SR 57.5 8.8% 8.5 1.5 0 1 3 1
San Diego State Malik Smith DB 6'0, 190 JR 56.0 8.6% 4.0 0.0 4 8 1 1
San Diego State Na'im McGee DB 6'0, 200 JR 54.5 8.4% 4.5 1.0 0 7 0 0
San Diego State Alex Barrett DL 6'3, 260 JR 44.5 6.8% 13.0 5.5 1 1 2 0
San Diego State Kameron Kelly DB 6'2, 195 SO 39.5 6.1% 2.0 0.0 2 3 0 0
San Diego State J.J. Whittaker DB 5'10, 180 SR 38.0 5.8% 0.5 0.0 3 8 0 0
San Diego State Jon Sanchez DL 6'2, 255 SR 29.0 4.5% 8.0 5.5 0 1 0 1
San Diego State Ryan Dunn LB 6'3, 235 SO 26.0 4.0% 4.5 0.5 0 0 0 0
San Diego State Christian Heyward DL 6'3, 300 SR 22.0 3.4% 5.5 2.0 0 1 1 0
San Diego State Noble Hall DL 6'3, 265 FR 14.0 2.2% 6.0 0.5 0 1 1 0
San Diego State Randy Ricks LB 6'5, 230 JR 14.0 2.2% 5.0 2.5 0 4 2 0
Cincinnati Eric Wilson LB 6'2, 219 JR 75.5 11.4% 3.5 0.0 0 2 1 1
Cincinnati Zach Edwards S 6'1, 200 JR 71.0 10.8% 3.5 0.0 3 8 1 0
Cincinnati Bryce Jenkinson LB 6'1, 235 FR 41.5 6.3% 3.0 1.0 1 1 1 0
Cincinnati Kevin Brown LB 6'1, 226 SR 37.0 5.6% 1.0 0.0 1 2 0 0
Cincinnati Tyrell Gilbert S 6'1, 195 FR 34.5 5.2% 1.0 0.0 1 6 0 0
Cincinnati Linden Stephens CB 6'0, 180 SO 30.0 4.5% 1.0 0.0 2 1 1 0
Cincinnati Leviticus Payne CB 5'10, 192 SR 29.5 4.5% 3.5 0.0 0 3 1 1
Cincinnati Silverberry Mouhon DL 6'3, 255 SR 29.0 4.4% 7.0 4.5 0 0 0 0
Cincinnati Carter Jacobs S 6'1, 196 SO 26.0 3.9% 0.0 0.0 0 0 1 0
Cincinnati Mike Tyson S 6'2, 206 JR 23.5 3.6% 1.0 0.0 0 4 0 0
Cincinnati Jaylyin Minor LB 6'1, 241 SO 21.5 3.3% 1.5 0.0 0 1 0 0
Cincinnati Alex Pace DT 6'2, 295 JR 21.0 3.2% 4.5 0.0 0 1 1 0
Cincinnati Cortez Broughton DT 6'2, 297 FR 18.0 2.7% 1.5 0.0 0 2 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
San Diego State Tanner Blain 6'0, 205 JR 73 40.6 8 23 21 60.3%
Cincinnati Sam Geraci 6'4, 222 SO 38 45.9 5 10 12 57.9%
Cincinnati Gunner Kiel 6'4, 215 JR 2 48.0 0 0 2 100.0%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
San Diego State Donny Hageman 6'1, 175 SR 79 63.0 23 29.1% 0 4 0 0
Cincinnati Andrew Gantz 5'9, 170 SO 83 62.9 30 36.1% 1 3 1 0
Cincinnati Ryan Jones 5'10, 170 FR 1 64.0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
San Diego State Donny Hageman 6'1, 175 SR 51-51 17-22 77.3%
Cincinnati Andrew Gantz 5'9, 170 SO 48-49 21-27 77.8%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
San Diego State Rashaad Penny 5'11, 210 SO 23 30.6 2 0 0 (0)
San Diego State Chase Price 5'8, 200 SR 10 18.4 0 0 0 (0)
Cincinnati Mike Boone 5'10, 201 SO 14 16.5 0 0 0 (0)
Cincinnati Johnny Holton 6'2, 191 SR 10 22.0 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
San Diego State Lloyd Mills 5'10, 175 JR 15 9.5 0 4 3 (2)
San Diego State Damontae Kazee 5'11, 185 JR 5 14.0 1 16 0 (0)
Cincinnati Shaq Washington 5'9, 179 SR 12 11.6 0 24 0 (0)
Cincinnati Max Morrison 6'1, 182 SR 2 3.5 0 2 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics