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2015 Military Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Navy vs. Pittsburgh

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman

Pittsburgh Panthers (8-4) vs. No. 21 Navy Midshipmen (9-2)

December 28 ( 2:30 PM ET, ESPN ), Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis
Spread: Navy -4
S&P+ Projection: Navy 33.7, Pittsburgh 26.9
Team Sites: Cardiac Hill, Underdog Dynasty (Navy)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Statistical profiles index.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Pittsburgh Navy
S&P+ (Rk) 40 15
Category Pittsburgh offense Navy defense Navy offense Pittsburgh defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.42 (61) 5.21 (54) 6.17 (25) 5.37 (72)
Yards per game (Rk) 381.0 (72) 357.5 (39) 418.3 (48) 347.5 (30)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.39 (53) 2.08 (70) 3.59 (1) 2.03 (66)
Category Pittsburgh offense Navy defense Navy offense Pittsburgh defense
S&P+ (Rk) 33.4 (38) 23.8 (37) 39.2 (15) 24.8 (44)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 115.8 (16) 112.7 (30) 125.7 (5) 102.5 (58)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 103.2 (62) 102.3 (59) 108.6 (40) 116.0 (22)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 109.3 (39) 111.9 (30) 113.5 (26) 114.9 (19)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 103.6 (58) 90.2 (95) 109.0 (44) 99.6 (70)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 110.5 (45) 103.3 (49) 119.0 (24) 97.1 (75)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 104.3 (62) 106.0 (60) 135.3 (4) 110.9 (41)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 114.6 (33) 90.7 (99) 102.7 (69) 116.5 (25)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 104.6 (56) 109.2 (40) 106.9 (46) 118.5 (19)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Pittsburgh

  1. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 2 defense vs. No. 119 offense)
  2. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 15 defense vs. No. 125 offense)
  3. Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 16 defense vs. No. 115 offense)
  4. Run Stuffs (No. 23 offense vs. No. 107 defense)
  5. Adj. Line Yards (No. 20 offense vs. No. 89 defense)

Navy

  1. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 12 offense vs. No. 79 defense)
  2. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 2 offense vs. No. 66 defense)
  3. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 48 defense vs. No. 106 offense)
  4. Rushing S&P+ (No. 5 offense vs. No. 58 defense)
  5. Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 29 offense vs. No. 80 defense)
Five Factors
Category Pittsburgh offense Navy defense Navy offense Pittsburgh defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.19 (104) 1.17 (23) 1.25 (73) 1.39 (111)
EFFICIENCY 44.3% (33) 42.5% (76) 49.9% (5) 36.8% (22)
FIELD POSITION 30.6 (50) 27.6 (25) 34.1 (4) 27.2 (17)
FINISHING DRIVES 4.6 (79) 4.4 (43) 5.4 (11) 5.2 (110)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Pittsburgh 0.97 (61)
Navy 11.19 (3)
ACTUAL
Pittsburgh 2 (52)
Navy 14 (5)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Pittsburgh offense Navy offense
Adj. Pace -3.1 (89) 0.5 (54)
Plays per game 70.3 (93) 67.8 (112)
Possessions per game 11.8 (121) 10.5 (128)
Std. Downs Run Rate 65.5% (30) 90.9% (2)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 34.6% (52) 67.2% (3)
% of solo tackles 79.9% (27) 80.3% (24)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Pittsburgh defense Navy defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 54.1% (117) 54.5% (113)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 31.2% (84) 35.6% (47)
Overall Havoc Rate 19.8% (13) 14.4% (94)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 12.8% (9) 9.2% (72)
DB Havoc Rate 6.9% (44) 5.1% (100)
PD to INC 30.9% (81) 35.3% (41)

When Pittsburgh has the ball…

Standard Downs
Pittsburgh Offense Navy Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 109.3 39 111.9 30
Standard Downs Success Rate 49.5 34 46.3 66 Pittsburgh
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.08 78 1.19 4 Navy big
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.28 13 2.90 70 Pittsburgh big
SD Sack Rate 7.3% 106 5.4% 48 Navy big
Passing Downs
Pittsburgh Offense Navy Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 103.6 58 90.2 95 Pittsburgh
Passing Downs Success Rate 32.1 52 33.8 100 Pittsburgh
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.56 110 1.89 98 Navy
PD Line Yards per Carry 2.76 104 3.57 104
PD Sack Rate 9.2% 93 3.9% 118 Pittsburgh

When Navy has the ball…

Standard Downs
Navy Offense Pittsburgh Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 113.5 26 114.9 19
Standard Downs Success Rate 56.4 2 40.2 13 Navy
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.09 69 0.94 102 Navy
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.64 2 2.61 29 Navy
SD Sack Rate 9.3% 119 10.4% 2 Pittsburgh big
Passing Downs
Navy Offense Pittsburgh Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 109.0 44 99.6 70 Navy
Passing Downs Success Rate 26.9 96 30.4 63 Pittsburgh
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.44 1 1.88 99 Navy big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.86 13 2.76 27 Navy
PD Sack Rate 13.6% 125 7.1% 71 Pittsburgh big
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Pittsburgh Nate Peterman 6'2, 225 JR 180 293 2150 19 5 61.4% 25 7.9% 6.3
Pittsburgh Chad Voytik 6'1, 215 JR 16 24 112 1 1 66.7% 4 14.3% 2.6
Navy Keenan Reynolds 5'11, 205 SR 46 84 964 6 1 54.8% 14 14.3% 8.7
Navy Tago Smith 5'10, 201 JR 2 3 30 1 1 66.7% 0 0.0% 10.0
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Pittsburgh Qadree Ollison RB 6'2, 230 FR 204 1048 10 5.1 6.7 32.4%
Pittsburgh Darrin Hall RB 5'11, 215 FR 61 255 2 4.2 2.6 39.3%
Pittsburgh Nate Peterman QB 6'2, 225 JR 57 362 1 6.4 5.1 50.9%
Pittsburgh Chris James RB 5'11, 210 SO 56 253 0 4.5 4.4 35.7%
Navy Keenan Reynolds QB 5'11, 205 SR 206 1200 19 5.8 5.8 42.2%
Navy Chris Swain FB 6'1, 245 SR 169 847 10 5.0 4.1 36.1%
Navy Quentin Ezell FB 6'1, 253 SR 56 305 6 5.4 4.6 39.3%
Navy DeBrandon Sanders SB 5'7, 160 SR 41 310 0 7.6 5.1 61.0%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Pittsburgh Tyler Boyd WR 6'2, 200 JR 118 85 873 6 10.3 7.4 72.0%
Pittsburgh Dontez Ford WR 6'2, 215 JR 45 24 479 2 20.0 10.6 53.3%
Pittsburgh J.P. Holtz TE 6'4, 250 SR 37 24 350 4 14.6 9.5 64.9%
Pittsburgh Qadree Ollison RB 6'2, 230 FR 20 12 63 0 5.3 3.2 60.0%
Pittsburgh Scott Orndoff TE 6'5, 265 JR 19 11 213 5 19.4 11.2 57.9%
Pittsburgh Zach Challingsworth WR 6'2, 200 SO 18 12 171 1 14.3 9.5 66.7%
Pittsburgh Chris James RB 5'11, 210 SO 10 7 48 0 6.9 4.8 70.0%
Navy Jamir Tillman WR 6'4, 206 JR 31 22 468 4 21.3 15.1 71.0%
Navy DeBrandon Sanders SB 5'7, 160 SR 11 7 220 1 31.4 20.0 63.6%
Navy Thomas Wilson WR 6'1, 201 SR 7 5 88 1 17.6 12.6 71.4%
Navy Craig Scott WR 6'2, 184 SO 6 2 38 0 19.0 6.3 33.3%
Navy Calvin Cass Jr. SB 5'10, 206 JR 6 3 34 1 11.3 5.7 50.0%
Navy Dishan Romine SB 5'11, 178 JR 5 2 42 0 21.0 8.4 40.0%
Navy Tyler Carmona WR 6'4, 205 SO 4 1 41 0 41.0 10.3 25.0%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Pittsburgh Jordan Whitehead DB 5'11, 185 FR 82.5 15.2% 5.5 0.5 1 6 1 0
Pittsburgh Avonte Maddox DB 5'9, 170 SO 60.5 11.1% 1.0 0.5 3 12 0 0
Pittsburgh Matt Galambos LB 6'2, 240 JR 55.0 10.1% 10.0 5.0 2 1 1 0
Pittsburgh Nicholas Grigsby LB 6'1, 220 SR 50.0 9.2% 9.5 3.5 0 2 2 0
Pittsburgh Mike Caprara LB 6'0, 230 JR 37.0 6.8% 9.5 4.0 1 1 0 0
Pittsburgh Ejuan Price DL 6'0, 250 SR 35.0 6.4% 19.5 11.5 0 1 1 1
Pittsburgh Lafayette Pitts DB 5'11, 195 SR 30.5 5.6% 2.0 1.0 1 6 1 0
Pittsburgh Terrish Webb DB 5'11, 190 JR 21.5 4.0% 0.0 0.0 2 3 1 1
Pittsburgh Bam Bradley LB 6'2, 230 JR 20.5 3.8% 5.0 1.0 0 0 1 0
Pittsburgh Rori Blair DL 6'4, 240 SO 17.0 3.1% 3.5 1.5 0 2 1 0
Pittsburgh Shakir Soto DL 6'3, 265 JR 14.0 2.6% 2.0 2.0 0 0 0 0
Pittsburgh Darryl Render DL 6'2, 300 SR 13.5 2.5% 1.5 1.0 0 0 0 0
Pittsburgh Tyrique Jarrett DL 6'3, 335 JR 12.5 2.3% 6.0 2.0 0 0 0 0
Navy Lorentez Barbour S 6'1, 194 SR 54.0 8.8% 0.0 0.0 1 3 2 0
Navy Micah Thomas LB 6'1, 249 SO 49.0 8.0% 4.5 2.5 0 2 0 0
Navy Quincy Adams CB 5'11, 200 SR 49.0 8.0% 3.5 0.0 0 7 1 0
Navy Daniel Gonzales LB 6'2, 240 JR 44.5 7.3% 2.5 0.0 1 1 1 0
Navy Will Anthony DE 6'1, 254 SR 42.0 6.9% 10.5 6.5 0 2 3 0
Navy Brendon Clements CB 5'11, 188 JR 41.0 6.7% 4.0 0.0 2 4 1 0
Navy Amos Mason DE 6'1, 250 JR 34.5 5.6% 5.0 2.0 0 4 1 0
Navy Daiquan Thomasson S 6'0, 195 JR 30.0 4.9% 0.0 0.0 1 3 1 0
Navy Bernard Sarra NG 6'1, 297 SR 24.0 3.9% 3.0 0.5 0 0 0 0
Navy D.J. Palmore OLB 6'3, 227 SO 23.5 3.8% 3.0 1.0 0 1 0 0
Navy Josiah Powell OLB 6'3, 215 JR 20.5 3.4% 3.0 1.0 0 3 0 0
Navy Tyler Goble LB 6'2, 222 SR 19.5 3.2% 0.0 0.0 1 0 0 0
Navy Mike Kelly OLB 6'1, 220 JR 17.5 2.9% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Pittsburgh Ryan Winslow 6'5, 210 SO 61 41.2 7 24 18 68.9%
Navy Alex Barta 6'3, 213 JR 28 42.2 4 5 8 46.4%
Navy Gavin Jernigan 6'3, 208 SR 2 37.0 0 1 0 50.0%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Pittsburgh Chris Blewitt 5'9, 190 JR 64 63.7 41 64.1% 0 0 3 0
Navy Austin Grebe 6'0, 192 SR 67 61.5 16 23.9% 0 2 1 0
Navy Gavin Jernigan 6'3, 208 SR 8 58.6 0 0.0% 0 1 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Pittsburgh Chris Blewitt 5'9, 190 JR 38-39 15-22 68.2%
Navy Austin Grebe 6'0, 192 SR 50-52 11-13 84.6%
Navy Nick Sloan 6'0, 190 SR 1-1 1-1 100.0%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Pittsburgh Quadree Henderson 5'8, 170 FR 14 24.4 0 0 0 (0)
Pittsburgh Tyler Boyd 6'2, 200 JR 11 23.4 0 0 1 (0)
Navy Dishan Romine 5'11, 178 JR 20 27.4 0 0 1 (1)
Navy Toneo Gulley 5'8, 196 JR 4 21.0 0 0 1 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Pittsburgh Avonte Maddox 5'9, 170 SO 8 6.0 0 6 0 (0)
Pittsburgh Tyler Boyd 6'2, 200 JR 8 0.9 0 6 3 (0)
Navy DeBrandon Sanders 5'7, 160 SR 6 7.3 0 5 1 (0)
Navy Calvin Cass Jr. 5'10, 206 JR 4 5.5 0 5 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics