2015 Military Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Navy vs. Pittsburgh

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman

Pittsburgh Panthers (8-4) vs. No. 21 Navy Midshipmen (9-2)

December 28 ( 2:30 PM ET, ESPN ), Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis

Spread: Navy -4

S&P+ Projection: Navy 33.7, Pittsburgh 26.9

Team Sites: Cardiac Hill, Underdog Dynasty (Navy)

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.}

_{Statistical profiles index.}

_{Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	Pittsburgh		Navy
S&P+ (Rk)	40		15
Category	Pittsburgh offense	Navy defense	Navy offense	Pittsburgh defense
Yards per play (Rk)	5.42 (61)	5.21 (54)	6.17 (25)	5.37 (72)
Yards per game (Rk)	381.0 (72)	357.5 (39)	418.3 (48)	347.5 (30)
Points per possession (Rk)	2.39 (53)	2.08 (70)	3.59 (1)	2.03 (66)
Category	Pittsburgh offense	Navy defense	Navy offense	Pittsburgh defense
S&P+ (Rk)	33.4 (38)	23.8 (37)	39.2 (15)	24.8 (44)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	115.8 (16)	112.7 (30)	125.7 (5)	102.5 (58)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	103.2 (62)	102.3 (59)	108.6 (40)	116.0 (22)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	109.3 (39)	111.9 (30)	113.5 (26)	114.9 (19)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	103.6 (58)	90.2 (95)	109.0 (44)	99.6 (70)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	110.5 (45)	103.3 (49)	119.0 (24)	97.1 (75)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	104.3 (62)	106.0 (60)	135.3 (4)	110.9 (41)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	114.6 (33)	90.7 (99)	102.7 (69)	116.5 (25)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	104.6 (56)	109.2 (40)	106.9 (46)	118.5 (19)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

Pittsburgh

1. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 2 defense vs. No. 119 offense)
2. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 15 defense vs. No. 125 offense)
3. Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 16 defense vs. No. 115 offense)
4. Run Stuffs (No. 23 offense vs. No. 107 defense)
5. Adj. Line Yards (No. 20 offense vs. No. 89 defense)

Navy

1. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 12 offense vs. No. 79 defense)
2. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 2 offense vs. No. 66 defense)
3. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 48 defense vs. No. 106 offense)
4. Rushing S&P+ (No. 5 offense vs. No. 58 defense)
5. Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 29 offense vs. No. 80 defense)

Five Factors

Category	Pittsburgh offense	Navy defense	Navy offense	Pittsburgh defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.19 (104)	1.17 (23)	1.25 (73)	1.39 (111)
EFFICIENCY	44.3% (33)	42.5% (76)	49.9% (5)	36.8% (22)
FIELD POSITION	30.6 (50)	27.6 (25)	34.1 (4)	27.2 (17)
FINISHING DRIVES	4.6 (79)	4.4 (43)	5.4 (11)	5.2 (110)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: Pittsburgh 0.97 (61) Navy 11.19 (3)		ACTUAL Pittsburgh 2 (52) Navy 14 (5)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Pittsburgh offense	Navy offense
Adj. Pace	-3.1 (89)	0.5 (54)
Plays per game	70.3 (93)	67.8 (112)
Possessions per game	11.8 (121)	10.5 (128)
Std. Downs Run Rate	65.5% (30)	90.9% (2)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	34.6% (52)	67.2% (3)
% of solo tackles	79.9% (27)	80.3% (24)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Pittsburgh defense	Navy defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	54.1% (117)	54.5% (113)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	31.2% (84)	35.6% (47)
Overall Havoc Rate	19.8% (13)	14.4% (94)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	12.8% (9)	9.2% (72)
DB Havoc Rate	6.9% (44)	5.1% (100)
PD to INC	30.9% (81)	35.3% (41)

When Pittsburgh has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Pittsburgh Offense		Navy Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	109.3	39	111.9	30
Standard Downs Success Rate	49.5	34	46.3	66	Pittsburgh
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.08	78	1.19	4	Navy big
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.28	13	2.90	70	Pittsburgh big
SD Sack Rate	7.3%	106	5.4%	48	Navy big

Passing Downs

	Pittsburgh Offense		Navy Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	103.6	58	90.2	95	Pittsburgh
Passing Downs Success Rate	32.1	52	33.8	100	Pittsburgh
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.56	110	1.89	98	Navy
PD Line Yards per Carry	2.76	104	3.57	104
PD Sack Rate	9.2%	93	3.9%	118	Pittsburgh

When Navy has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Navy Offense		Pittsburgh Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	113.5	26	114.9	19
Standard Downs Success Rate	56.4	2	40.2	13	Navy
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.09	69	0.94	102	Navy
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.64	2	2.61	29	Navy
SD Sack Rate	9.3%	119	10.4%	2	Pittsburgh big

Passing Downs

	Navy Offense		Pittsburgh Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	109.0	44	99.6	70	Navy
Passing Downs Success Rate	26.9	96	30.4	63	Pittsburgh
Passing Downs IsoPPP	2.44	1	1.88	99	Navy big
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.86	13	2.76	27	Navy
PD Sack Rate	13.6%	125	7.1%	71	Pittsburgh big

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Pittsburgh	Nate Peterman	6'2, 225	JR	180	293	2150	19	5	61.4%	25	7.9%	6.3
Pittsburgh	Chad Voytik	6'1, 215	JR	16	24	112	1	1	66.7%	4	14.3%	2.6
Navy	Keenan Reynolds	5'11, 205	SR	46	84	964	6	1	54.8%	14	14.3%	8.7
Navy	Tago Smith	5'10, 201	JR	2	3	30	1	1	66.7%	0	0.0%	10.0

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
Pittsburgh	Qadree Ollison	RB	6'2, 230	FR	204	1048	10	5.1	6.7	32.4%
Pittsburgh	Darrin Hall	RB	5'11, 215	FR	61	255	2	4.2	2.6	39.3%
Pittsburgh	Nate Peterman	QB	6'2, 225	JR	57	362	1	6.4	5.1	50.9%
Pittsburgh	Chris James	RB	5'11, 210	SO	56	253	0	4.5	4.4	35.7%
Navy	Keenan Reynolds	QB	5'11, 205	SR	206	1200	19	5.8	5.8	42.2%
Navy	Chris Swain	FB	6'1, 245	SR	169	847	10	5.0	4.1	36.1%
Navy	Quentin Ezell	FB	6'1, 253	SR	56	305	6	5.4	4.6	39.3%
Navy	DeBrandon Sanders	SB	5'7, 160	SR	41	310	0	7.6	5.1	61.0%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
Pittsburgh	Tyler Boyd	WR	6'2, 200	JR	118	85	873	6	10.3	7.4	72.0%
Pittsburgh	Dontez Ford	WR	6'2, 215	JR	45	24	479	2	20.0	10.6	53.3%
Pittsburgh	J.P. Holtz	TE	6'4, 250	SR	37	24	350	4	14.6	9.5	64.9%
Pittsburgh	Qadree Ollison	RB	6'2, 230	FR	20	12	63	0	5.3	3.2	60.0%
Pittsburgh	Scott Orndoff	TE	6'5, 265	JR	19	11	213	5	19.4	11.2	57.9%
Pittsburgh	Zach Challingsworth	WR	6'2, 200	SO	18	12	171	1	14.3	9.5	66.7%
Pittsburgh	Chris James	RB	5'11, 210	SO	10	7	48	0	6.9	4.8	70.0%
Navy	Jamir Tillman	WR	6'4, 206	JR	31	22	468	4	21.3	15.1	71.0%
Navy	DeBrandon Sanders	SB	5'7, 160	SR	11	7	220	1	31.4	20.0	63.6%
Navy	Thomas Wilson	WR	6'1, 201	SR	7	5	88	1	17.6	12.6	71.4%
Navy	Craig Scott	WR	6'2, 184	SO	6	2	38	0	19.0	6.3	33.3%
Navy	Calvin Cass Jr.	SB	5'10, 206	JR	6	3	34	1	11.3	5.7	50.0%
Navy	Dishan Romine	SB	5'11, 178	JR	5	2	42	0	21.0	8.4	40.0%
Navy	Tyler Carmona	WR	6'4, 205	SO	4	1	41	0	41.0	10.3	25.0%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Pittsburgh	Jordan Whitehead	DB	5'11, 185	FR	82.5	15.2%	5.5	0.5	1	6	1	0
Pittsburgh	Avonte Maddox	DB	5'9, 170	SO	60.5	11.1%	1.0	0.5	3	12	0	0
Pittsburgh	Matt Galambos	LB	6'2, 240	JR	55.0	10.1%	10.0	5.0	2	1	1	0
Pittsburgh	Nicholas Grigsby	LB	6'1, 220	SR	50.0	9.2%	9.5	3.5	0	2	2	0
Pittsburgh	Mike Caprara	LB	6'0, 230	JR	37.0	6.8%	9.5	4.0	1	1	0	0
Pittsburgh	Ejuan Price	DL	6'0, 250	SR	35.0	6.4%	19.5	11.5	0	1	1	1
Pittsburgh	Lafayette Pitts	DB	5'11, 195	SR	30.5	5.6%	2.0	1.0	1	6	1	0
Pittsburgh	Terrish Webb	DB	5'11, 190	JR	21.5	4.0%	0.0	0.0	2	3	1	1
Pittsburgh	Bam Bradley	LB	6'2, 230	JR	20.5	3.8%	5.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Pittsburgh	Rori Blair	DL	6'4, 240	SO	17.0	3.1%	3.5	1.5	0	2	1	0
Pittsburgh	Shakir Soto	DL	6'3, 265	JR	14.0	2.6%	2.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Pittsburgh	Darryl Render	DL	6'2, 300	SR	13.5	2.5%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Pittsburgh	Tyrique Jarrett	DL	6'3, 335	JR	12.5	2.3%	6.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Navy	Lorentez Barbour	S	6'1, 194	SR	54.0	8.8%	0.0	0.0	1	3	2	0
Navy	Micah Thomas	LB	6'1, 249	SO	49.0	8.0%	4.5	2.5	0	2	0	0
Navy	Quincy Adams	CB	5'11, 200	SR	49.0	8.0%	3.5	0.0	0	7	1	0
Navy	Daniel Gonzales	LB	6'2, 240	JR	44.5	7.3%	2.5	0.0	1	1	1	0
Navy	Will Anthony	DE	6'1, 254	SR	42.0	6.9%	10.5	6.5	0	2	3	0
Navy	Brendon Clements	CB	5'11, 188	JR	41.0	6.7%	4.0	0.0	2	4	1	0
Navy	Amos Mason	DE	6'1, 250	JR	34.5	5.6%	5.0	2.0	0	4	1	0
Navy	Daiquan Thomasson	S	6'0, 195	JR	30.0	4.9%	0.0	0.0	1	3	1	0
Navy	Bernard Sarra	NG	6'1, 297	SR	24.0	3.9%	3.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Navy	D.J. Palmore	OLB	6'3, 227	SO	23.5	3.8%	3.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Navy	Josiah Powell	OLB	6'3, 215	JR	20.5	3.4%	3.0	1.0	0	3	0	0
Navy	Tyler Goble	LB	6'2, 222	SR	19.5	3.2%	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Navy	Mike Kelly	OLB	6'1, 220	JR	17.5	2.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Pittsburgh	Ryan Winslow	6'5, 210	SO	61	41.2	7	24	18	68.9%
Navy	Alex Barta	6'3, 213	JR	28	42.2	4	5	8	46.4%
Navy	Gavin Jernigan	6'3, 208	SR	2	37.0	0	1	0	50.0%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
Pittsburgh	Chris Blewitt	5'9, 190	JR	64	63.7	41	64.1%	0	0	3	0
Navy	Austin Grebe	6'0, 192	SR	67	61.5	16	23.9%	0	2	1	0
Navy	Gavin Jernigan	6'3, 208	SR	8	58.6	0	0.0%	0	1	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
Pittsburgh	Chris Blewitt	5'9, 190	JR	38-39	15-22	68.2%
Navy	Austin Grebe	6'0, 192	SR	50-52	11-13	84.6%
Navy	Nick Sloan	6'0, 190	SR	1-1	1-1	100.0%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Pittsburgh	Quadree Henderson	5'8, 170	FR	14	24.4	0	0	0 (0)
Pittsburgh	Tyler Boyd	6'2, 200	JR	11	23.4	0	0	1 (0)
Navy	Dishan Romine	5'11, 178	JR	20	27.4	0	0	1 (1)
Navy	Toneo Gulley	5'8, 196	JR	4	21.0	0	0	1 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Pittsburgh	Avonte Maddox	5'9, 170	SO	8	6.0	0	6	0 (0)
Pittsburgh	Tyler Boyd	6'2, 200	JR	8	0.9	0	6	3 (0)
Navy	DeBrandon Sanders	5'7, 160	SR	6	7.3	0	5	1 (0)
Navy	Calvin Cass Jr.	5'10, 206	JR	4	5.5	0	5	0 (0)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}