2015 Russell Athletic Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Baylor vs. North Carolina

Russell Athletic Bowl

No. 10 North Carolina Tar Heels (11-2) vs. No. 17 Baylor Bears (9-3)

December 29 ( 5:30 PM ET, ESPN ), Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando

Spread: Baylor -3

S&P+ Projection: Baylor 36.5, North Carolina 31.4

Team Sites: Tar Heel Blog, Our Daily Bears

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.}

_{Statistical profiles index.}

_{Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	North Carolina		Baylor
S&P+ (Rk)	30		14
Category	North Carolina offense	Baylor defense	Baylor offense	North Carolina defense
Yards per play (Rk)	7.10 (1)	4.86 (33)	6.92 (3)	5.08 (46)
Yards per game (Rk)	495.2 (18)	385.9 (55)	592.3 (1)	409.8 (76)
Points per possession (Rk)	3.30 (3)	1.86 (49)	3.25 (6)	1.79 (43)
Category	North Carolina offense	Baylor defense	Baylor offense	North Carolina defense
S&P+ (Rk)	38.2 (22)	27.2 (60)	43.0 (4)	27.5 (65)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	116.1 (15)	122.6 (8)	108.9 (36)	88.5 (106)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	120.9 (23)	110.0 (34)	132.1 (6)	100.5 (65)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	119.0 (13)	121.9 (6)	120.3 (11)	95.9 (82)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	118.7 (29)	104.6 (58)	107.5 (45)	95.1 (84)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	127.8 (7)	104.0 (46)	136.4 (5)	96.8 (78)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	125.6 (12)	123.3 (16)	103.9 (64)	96.5 (81)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	127.5 (12)	125.3 (13)	126.3 (15)	88.1 (110)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	120.5 (13)	102.8 (59)	108.3 (41)	97.3 (75)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

North Carolina

1. Field Position (No. 22 offense vs. No. 89 defense)
2. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 24 offense vs. No. 67 defense)
3. Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 27 offense vs. No. 63 defense)
4. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 13 offense vs. No. 47 defense)
5. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 18 offense vs. No. 47 defense)

Baylor

1. Run Stuffs (No. 4 offense vs. No. 115 defense)
2. Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 15 offense vs. No. 114 defense)
3. Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 19 offense vs. No. 112 defense)
4. Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 31 offense vs. No. 124 defense)
5. Adj. Line Yards (No. 24 offense vs. No. 116 defense)

Five Factors

Category	North Carolina offense	Baylor defense	Baylor offense	North Carolina defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.47 (3)	1.21 (47)	1.39 (13)	1.08 (3)
EFFICIENCY	46.0% (22)	37.8% (30)	49.4% (8)	44.9% (100)
FIELD POSITION	32.6 (22)	30.8 (89)	30.5 (53)	28.1 (35)
FINISHING DRIVES	5.3 (24)	4.9 (87)	5.6 (2)	3.8 (13)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: North Carolina 4.28 (29) Baylor 0.58 (65)		ACTUAL North Carolina 8 (18) Baylor -1 (72)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	North Carolina offense	Baylor offense
Adj. Pace	-4.5 (106)	13.9 (1)
Plays per game	69.8 (96)	85.6 (5)
Possessions per game	12.4 (107)	14.8 (5)
Std. Downs Run Rate	60.2% (64)	63.0% (45)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	35.6% (49)	51.0% (7)
% of solo tackles	71.2% (94)	82.9% (12)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	North Carolina defense	Baylor defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	64.8% (25)	68.5% (7)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	34.9% (54)	33.9% (66)
Overall Havoc Rate	15.0% (84)	17.7% (37)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	7.8% (100)	10.0% (52)
DB Havoc Rate	7.0% (37)	7.5% (24)
PD to INC	40.5% (8)	30.1% (86)

When North Carolina has the ball…

Standard Downs

	North Carolina Offense		Baylor Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	119.0	13	121.9	6
Standard Downs Success Rate	50.2	29	42.3	27
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.34	4	0.99	15	North Carolina
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.41	6	2.52	21	North Carolina
SD Sack Rate	4%	47	7%	18	Baylor

Passing Downs

	North Carolina Offense		Baylor Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	118.7	29	104.6	58	North Carolina
Passing Downs Success Rate	35.1	28	29.5	55	North Carolina
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.94	25	1.50	79	North Carolina big
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.94	10	3.46	88	North Carolina big
PD Sack Rate	4.1%	13	8.1%	47	North Carolina

When Baylor has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Baylor Offense		North Carolina Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	120.3	11	95.9	82	Baylor big
Standard Downs Success Rate	56.0	3	50.0	100	Baylor big
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.26	11	0.99	12
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.74	1	3.28	117	Baylor big
SD Sack Rate	2.4%	19	5.4%	48	Baylor

Passing Downs

	Baylor Offense		North Carolina Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	107.5	45	95.1	84	Baylor
Passing Downs Success Rate	31.0	62	31.2	73	Baylor
Passing Downs IsoPPP	2.07	12	1.81	9
PD Line Yards per Carry	2.87	100	3.46	88	North Carolina
PD Sack Rate	6.1%	46	4.9%	107	Baylor big

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
North Carolina	Marquise Williams	6'2, 225	SR	197	321	2829	21	9	61.4%	13	3.9%	8.2
North Carolina	Mitch Trubisky	6'3, 220	SO	40	47	555	6	0	85.1%	1	2.1%	11.4
North Carolina	Caleb Henderson	6'3, 215	FR	0	1	0	0	0	0.0%	0	0.0%	0.0
Baylor	Seth Russell	6'3, 220	JR	119	200	2104	29	6	59.5%	3	1.5%	10.3
Baylor	Jarrett Stidham	6'3, 210	FR	75	109	1265	12	2	68.8%	9	7.6%	10.3
Baylor	Chris Johnson	6'5, 235	SO	15	38	220	3	2	39.5%	2	5.0%	5.4

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
North Carolina	Elijah Hood	TB	6'0, 220	SO	206	1345	17	6.5	5.9	46.6%
North Carolina	Marquise Williams	QB	6'2, 225	SR	128	962	11	7.5	8.2	45.3%
North Carolina	T.J. Logan	TB	5'10, 190	JR	62	368	5	5.9	7.5	35.5%
North Carolina	Ty'Son Williams	TB	6'0, 220	FR	19	57	0	3.0	1.5	21.1%
Baylor	Shock Linwood	RB	5'9, 200	JR	198	1329	10	6.7	5.6	50.5%
Baylor	Johnny Jefferson	RB	5'10, 210	SO	113	701	5	6.2	4.0	52.2%
Baylor	Devin Chafin	RB	6'0, 225	JR	94	422	8	4.5	2.2	38.3%
Baylor	Terence Williams	RB	6'2, 215	FR	72	459	1	6.4	4.6	51.4%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
North Carolina	Ryan Switzer	WR	5'10, 185	JR	75	53	679	6	12.8	9.1	70.7%
North Carolina	Quinshad Davis	WR	6'4, 220	SR	74	49	578	4	11.8	7.8	66.2%
North Carolina	Bug Howard	WR	6'5, 210	JR	53	26	446	3	17.2	8.4	49.1%
North Carolina	Mack Hollins	WR	6'4, 210	JR	46	28	711	8	25.4	15.5	60.9%
North Carolina	Brandon Fritts	TE	6'4, 245	FR	18	14	184	3	13.1	10.2	77.8%
North Carolina	Kendrick Singleton	TE	6'2, 215	SR	18	10	124	1	12.4	6.9	55.6%
North Carolina	T.J. Logan	TB	5'10, 190	JR	16	11	151	1	13.7	9.4	68.8%
Baylor	Corey Coleman	WR	5'11, 190	JR	121	74	1363	20	18.4	11.3	61.2%
Baylor	KD Cannon	WR	6'0, 180	SO	86	47	841	6	17.9	9.8	54.7%
Baylor	Jay Lee	WR	6'3, 220	SR	57	36	726	8	20.2	12.7	63.2%
Baylor	Chris Platt	WR	5'11, 170	FR	22	11	155	1	14.1	7.1	50.0%
Baylor	Davion Hall	WR	6'2, 205	SO	13	5	77	1	15.4	5.9	38.5%
Baylor	Lynx Hawthorne	WR	6'0, 205	JR	12	10	95	1	9.5	7.9	83.3%
Baylor	Ishmael Zamora	WR	6'4, 220	FR	10	8	108	2	13.5	10.8	80.0%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
North Carolina	Shakeel Rashad	LB	6'2, 235	SR	92.0	11.7%	7.5	1.5	2	2	3	0
North Carolina	Donnie Miles	S	5'11, 210	SO	85.5	10.9%	2.0	0.0	0	2	1	0
North Carolina	Jeff Schoettmer	LB	6'2, 235	SR	64.5	8.2%	6.5	0.0	2	1	1	0
North Carolina	Des Lawrence	CB	6'1, 185	JR	45.0	5.7%	2.5	0.0	2	14	0	0
North Carolina	M.J. Stewart	CB	5'11, 200	SO	41.5	5.3%	2.5	1.0	4	14	1	0
North Carolina	Sam Smiley	S	5'11, 190	SR	36.5	4.7%	1.0	0.0	1	1	0	1
North Carolina	Andre Smith	LB	6'0, 235	FR	36.0	4.6%	2.0	1.0	1	1	1	0
North Carolina	Cayson Collins	LB	6'1, 235	SO	30.5	3.9%	3.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
North Carolina	Nazair Jones	DT	6'5, 295	SO	29.5	3.8%	4.0	0.0	1	3	1	0
North Carolina	Malik Simmons	CB	5'11, 190	SR	29.0	3.7%	0.0	0.0	2	7	0	0
North Carolina	Dajaun Drennon	DE	6'4, 255	SO	27.5	3.5%	5.0	1.5	0	1	0	0
North Carolina	Dominquie Green	S	5'11, 190	JR	26.5	3.4%	0.0	0.0	1	2	0	0
North Carolina	Junior Gnonkonde	DE	6'4, 260	JR	26.0	3.3%	7.0	3.5	0	1	0	1
Baylor	Grant Campbell	LB	6'1, 230	SR	74.5	10.2%	5.0	2.5	0	1	0	0
Baylor	Travon Blanchard	DB	6'2, 205	SO	73.0	10.0%	7.5	2.0	2	6	4	0
Baylor	Taylor Young	LB	5'10, 225	SO	66.5	9.1%	12.5	3.0	0	1	0	0
Baylor	Chance Waz	S	6'0, 185	SO	58.0	7.9%	1.0	0.0	0	3	0	0
Baylor	Orion Stewart	S	6'2, 200	JR	51.0	7.0%	1.5	1.0	0	3	1	0
Baylor	Jamal Palmer	DE	6'3, 250	SR	47.5	6.5%	14.5	5.5	0	1	4	0
Baylor	Taion Sells	S	5'10, 185	JR	39.0	5.3%	3.5	0.0	1	3	0	0
Baylor	Shawn Oakman	DE	6'9, 275	SR	37.5	5.1%	14.5	4.5	0	0	2	0
Baylor	Aiavion Edwards	LB	6'1, 225	JR	37.0	5.0%	2.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Baylor	Xavien Howard	CB	6'2, 200	JR	34.5	4.7%	1.0	0.0	5	9	0	1
Baylor	Andrew Billings	DT	6'2, 310	JR	33.5	4.6%	14.0	5.5	0	0	1	0
Baylor	Ryan Reid	CB	5'11, 190	JR	20.5	2.8%	1.0	0.0	3	6	0	0
Baylor	Beau Blackshear	DL	6'4, 300	SR	19.5	2.7%	4.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
North Carolina	Joey Mangili	6'3, 210	JR	21	40.7	2	7	6	61.9%
North Carolina	Corbin Daly	6'3, 200	FR	13	37.9	1	4	3	53.8%
Baylor	Drew Galitz	6'0, 195	FR	40	40.7	0	15	11	65.0%
Baylor	Jarrett Stidham	6'3, 210	FR	2	28.5	0	0	1	50.0%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
North Carolina	Nick Weiler	6'0, 190	JR	97	62.8	50	51.5%	0	4	2	0
Baylor	Spencer Evans	6'1, 200	SO	98	59.7	34	34.7%	3	3	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
North Carolina	Nick Weiler	6'0, 190	JR	62-62	19-22	86.4%
North Carolina	Freeman Jones	6'0, 200	FR	1-1	0-0	#DIV/0!
Baylor	Chris Callahan	5'9, 200	SO	76-76	8-12	66.7%
Baylor	Spencer Evans	6'1, 200	SO	0-0	0-1	0.0%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
North Carolina	T.J. Logan	5'10, 190	JR	20	23.7	0	1	0 (0)
North Carolina	Dan Mastromatteo	6'2, 235	JR	3	2.0	0	0	1 (0)
Baylor	Chris Platt	5'11, 170	FR	12	28.4	0	0	1 (0)
Baylor	KD Cannon	6'0, 180	SO	7	16.3	0	0	2 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
North Carolina	Ryan Switzer	5'10, 185	JR	22	13.7	2	14	2 (0)
North Carolina	Bug Howard	6'5, 210	JR	1	1.0	0	0	0 (0)
Baylor	Lynx Hawthorne	6'0, 205	JR	10	5.0	0	27	2 (2)
Baylor	Corey Coleman	5'11, 190	JR	3	3.0	0	3	0 (0)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}