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2015 Russell Athletic Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Baylor vs. North Carolina

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Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Russell Athletic Bowl

No. 10 North Carolina Tar Heels (11-2) vs. No. 17 Baylor Bears (9-3)

December 29 ( 5:30 PM ET, ESPN ), Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando
Spread: Baylor -3
S&P+ Projection: Baylor 36.5, North Carolina 31.4
Team Sites: Tar Heel Blog, Our Daily Bears

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Statistical profiles index.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category North Carolina Baylor
S&P+ (Rk) 30 14
Category North Carolina offense Baylor defense Baylor offense North Carolina defense
Yards per play (Rk) 7.10 (1) 4.86 (33) 6.92 (3) 5.08 (46)
Yards per game (Rk) 495.2 (18) 385.9 (55) 592.3 (1) 409.8 (76)
Points per possession (Rk) 3.30 (3) 1.86 (49) 3.25 (6) 1.79 (43)
Category North Carolina offense Baylor defense Baylor offense North Carolina defense
S&P+ (Rk) 38.2 (22) 27.2 (60) 43.0 (4) 27.5 (65)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 116.1 (15) 122.6 (8) 108.9 (36) 88.5 (106)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 120.9 (23) 110.0 (34) 132.1 (6) 100.5 (65)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 119.0 (13) 121.9 (6) 120.3 (11) 95.9 (82)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 118.7 (29) 104.6 (58) 107.5 (45) 95.1 (84)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 127.8 (7) 104.0 (46) 136.4 (5) 96.8 (78)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 125.6 (12) 123.3 (16) 103.9 (64) 96.5 (81)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 127.5 (12) 125.3 (13) 126.3 (15) 88.1 (110)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 120.5 (13) 102.8 (59) 108.3 (41) 97.3 (75)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

North Carolina

  1. Field Position (No. 22 offense vs. No. 89 defense)
  2. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 24 offense vs. No. 67 defense)
  3. Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 27 offense vs. No. 63 defense)
  4. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 13 offense vs. No. 47 defense)
  5. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 18 offense vs. No. 47 defense)

Baylor

  1. Run Stuffs (No. 4 offense vs. No. 115 defense)
  2. Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 15 offense vs. No. 114 defense)
  3. Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 19 offense vs. No. 112 defense)
  4. Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 31 offense vs. No. 124 defense)
  5. Adj. Line Yards (No. 24 offense vs. No. 116 defense)
Five Factors
Category North Carolina offense Baylor defense Baylor offense North Carolina defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.47 (3) 1.21 (47) 1.39 (13) 1.08 (3)
EFFICIENCY 46.0% (22) 37.8% (30) 49.4% (8) 44.9% (100)
FIELD POSITION 32.6 (22) 30.8 (89) 30.5 (53) 28.1 (35)
FINISHING DRIVES 5.3 (24) 4.9 (87) 5.6 (2) 3.8 (13)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
North Carolina 4.28 (29)
Baylor 0.58 (65)
ACTUAL
North Carolina 8 (18)
Baylor -1 (72)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) North Carolina offense Baylor offense
Adj. Pace -4.5 (106) 13.9 (1)
Plays per game 69.8 (96) 85.6 (5)
Possessions per game 12.4 (107) 14.8 (5)
Std. Downs Run Rate 60.2% (64) 63.0% (45)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 35.6% (49) 51.0% (7)
% of solo tackles 71.2% (94) 82.9% (12)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) North Carolina defense Baylor defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 64.8% (25) 68.5% (7)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 34.9% (54) 33.9% (66)
Overall Havoc Rate 15.0% (84) 17.7% (37)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 7.8% (100) 10.0% (52)
DB Havoc Rate 7.0% (37) 7.5% (24)
PD to INC 40.5% (8) 30.1% (86)

When North Carolina has the ball…

Standard Downs
North Carolina Offense Baylor Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 119.0 13 121.9 6
Standard Downs Success Rate 50.2 29 42.3 27
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.34 4 0.99 15 North Carolina
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.41 6 2.52 21 North Carolina
SD Sack Rate 4% 47 7% 18 Baylor
Passing Downs
North Carolina Offense Baylor Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 118.7 29 104.6 58 North Carolina
Passing Downs Success Rate 35.1 28 29.5 55 North Carolina
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.94 25 1.50 79 North Carolina big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.94 10 3.46 88 North Carolina big
PD Sack Rate 4.1% 13 8.1% 47 North Carolina

When Baylor has the ball…

Standard Downs
Baylor Offense North Carolina Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 120.3 11 95.9 82 Baylor big
Standard Downs Success Rate 56.0 3 50.0 100 Baylor big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.26 11 0.99 12
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.74 1 3.28 117 Baylor big
SD Sack Rate 2.4% 19 5.4% 48 Baylor
Passing Downs
Baylor Offense North Carolina Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 107.5 45 95.1 84 Baylor
Passing Downs Success Rate 31.0 62 31.2 73 Baylor
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.07 12 1.81 9
PD Line Yards per Carry 2.87 100 3.46 88 North Carolina
PD Sack Rate 6.1% 46 4.9% 107 Baylor big
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
North Carolina Marquise Williams 6'2, 225 SR 197 321 2829 21 9 61.4% 13 3.9% 8.2
North Carolina Mitch Trubisky 6'3, 220 SO 40 47 555 6 0 85.1% 1 2.1% 11.4
North Carolina Caleb Henderson 6'3, 215 FR 0 1 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0
Baylor Seth Russell 6'3, 220 JR 119 200 2104 29 6 59.5% 3 1.5% 10.3
Baylor Jarrett Stidham 6'3, 210 FR 75 109 1265 12 2 68.8% 9 7.6% 10.3
Baylor Chris Johnson 6'5, 235 SO 15 38 220 3 2 39.5% 2 5.0% 5.4
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
North Carolina Elijah Hood TB 6'0, 220 SO 206 1345 17 6.5 5.9 46.6%
North Carolina Marquise Williams QB 6'2, 225 SR 128 962 11 7.5 8.2 45.3%
North Carolina T.J. Logan TB 5'10, 190 JR 62 368 5 5.9 7.5 35.5%
North Carolina Ty'Son Williams TB 6'0, 220 FR 19 57 0 3.0 1.5 21.1%
Baylor Shock Linwood RB 5'9, 200 JR 198 1329 10 6.7 5.6 50.5%
Baylor Johnny Jefferson RB 5'10, 210 SO 113 701 5 6.2 4.0 52.2%
Baylor Devin Chafin RB 6'0, 225 JR 94 422 8 4.5 2.2 38.3%
Baylor Terence Williams RB 6'2, 215 FR 72 459 1 6.4 4.6 51.4%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
North Carolina Ryan Switzer WR 5'10, 185 JR 75 53 679 6 12.8 9.1 70.7%
North Carolina Quinshad Davis WR 6'4, 220 SR 74 49 578 4 11.8 7.8 66.2%
North Carolina Bug Howard WR 6'5, 210 JR 53 26 446 3 17.2 8.4 49.1%
North Carolina Mack Hollins WR 6'4, 210 JR 46 28 711 8 25.4 15.5 60.9%
North Carolina Brandon Fritts TE 6'4, 245 FR 18 14 184 3 13.1 10.2 77.8%
North Carolina Kendrick Singleton TE 6'2, 215 SR 18 10 124 1 12.4 6.9 55.6%
North Carolina T.J. Logan TB 5'10, 190 JR 16 11 151 1 13.7 9.4 68.8%
Baylor Corey Coleman WR 5'11, 190 JR 121 74 1363 20 18.4 11.3 61.2%
Baylor KD Cannon WR 6'0, 180 SO 86 47 841 6 17.9 9.8 54.7%
Baylor Jay Lee WR 6'3, 220 SR 57 36 726 8 20.2 12.7 63.2%
Baylor Chris Platt WR 5'11, 170 FR 22 11 155 1 14.1 7.1 50.0%
Baylor Davion Hall WR 6'2, 205 SO 13 5 77 1 15.4 5.9 38.5%
Baylor Lynx Hawthorne WR 6'0, 205 JR 12 10 95 1 9.5 7.9 83.3%
Baylor Ishmael Zamora WR 6'4, 220 FR 10 8 108 2 13.5 10.8 80.0%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
North Carolina Shakeel Rashad LB 6'2, 235 SR 92.0 11.7% 7.5 1.5 2 2 3 0
North Carolina Donnie Miles S 5'11, 210 SO 85.5 10.9% 2.0 0.0 0 2 1 0
North Carolina Jeff Schoettmer LB 6'2, 235 SR 64.5 8.2% 6.5 0.0 2 1 1 0
North Carolina Des Lawrence CB 6'1, 185 JR 45.0 5.7% 2.5 0.0 2 14 0 0
North Carolina M.J. Stewart CB 5'11, 200 SO 41.5 5.3% 2.5 1.0 4 14 1 0
North Carolina Sam Smiley S 5'11, 190 SR 36.5 4.7% 1.0 0.0 1 1 0 1
North Carolina Andre Smith LB 6'0, 235 FR 36.0 4.6% 2.0 1.0 1 1 1 0
North Carolina Cayson Collins LB 6'1, 235 SO 30.5 3.9% 3.0 0.0 0 0 1 0
North Carolina Nazair Jones DT 6'5, 295 SO 29.5 3.8% 4.0 0.0 1 3 1 0
North Carolina Malik Simmons CB 5'11, 190 SR 29.0 3.7% 0.0 0.0 2 7 0 0
North Carolina Dajaun Drennon DE 6'4, 255 SO 27.5 3.5% 5.0 1.5 0 1 0 0
North Carolina Dominquie Green S 5'11, 190 JR 26.5 3.4% 0.0 0.0 1 2 0 0
North Carolina Junior Gnonkonde DE 6'4, 260 JR 26.0 3.3% 7.0 3.5 0 1 0 1
Baylor Grant Campbell LB 6'1, 230 SR 74.5 10.2% 5.0 2.5 0 1 0 0
Baylor Travon Blanchard DB 6'2, 205 SO 73.0 10.0% 7.5 2.0 2 6 4 0
Baylor Taylor Young LB 5'10, 225 SO 66.5 9.1% 12.5 3.0 0 1 0 0
Baylor Chance Waz S 6'0, 185 SO 58.0 7.9% 1.0 0.0 0 3 0 0
Baylor Orion Stewart S 6'2, 200 JR 51.0 7.0% 1.5 1.0 0 3 1 0
Baylor Jamal Palmer DE 6'3, 250 SR 47.5 6.5% 14.5 5.5 0 1 4 0
Baylor Taion Sells S 5'10, 185 JR 39.0 5.3% 3.5 0.0 1 3 0 0
Baylor Shawn Oakman DE 6'9, 275 SR 37.5 5.1% 14.5 4.5 0 0 2 0
Baylor Aiavion Edwards LB 6'1, 225 JR 37.0 5.0% 2.0 1.0 0 1 0 0
Baylor Xavien Howard CB 6'2, 200 JR 34.5 4.7% 1.0 0.0 5 9 0 1
Baylor Andrew Billings DT 6'2, 310 JR 33.5 4.6% 14.0 5.5 0 0 1 0
Baylor Ryan Reid CB 5'11, 190 JR 20.5 2.8% 1.0 0.0 3 6 0 0
Baylor Beau Blackshear DL 6'4, 300 SR 19.5 2.7% 4.0 0.0 0 0 1 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
North Carolina Joey Mangili 6'3, 210 JR 21 40.7 2 7 6 61.9%
North Carolina Corbin Daly 6'3, 200 FR 13 37.9 1 4 3 53.8%
Baylor Drew Galitz 6'0, 195 FR 40 40.7 0 15 11 65.0%
Baylor Jarrett Stidham 6'3, 210 FR 2 28.5 0 0 1 50.0%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
North Carolina Nick Weiler 6'0, 190 JR 97 62.8 50 51.5% 0 4 2 0
Baylor Spencer Evans 6'1, 200 SO 98 59.7 34 34.7% 3 3 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
North Carolina Nick Weiler 6'0, 190 JR 62-62 19-22 86.4%
North Carolina Freeman Jones 6'0, 200 FR 1-1 0-0 #DIV/0!
Baylor Chris Callahan 5'9, 200 SO 76-76 8-12 66.7%
Baylor Spencer Evans 6'1, 200 SO 0-0 0-1 0.0%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
North Carolina T.J. Logan 5'10, 190 JR 20 23.7 0 1 0 (0)
North Carolina Dan Mastromatteo 6'2, 235 JR 3 2.0 0 0 1 (0)
Baylor Chris Platt 5'11, 170 FR 12 28.4 0 0 1 (0)
Baylor KD Cannon 6'0, 180 SO 7 16.3 0 0 2 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
North Carolina Ryan Switzer 5'10, 185 JR 22 13.7 2 14 2 (0)
North Carolina Bug Howard 6'5, 210 JR 1 1.0 0 0 0 (0)
Baylor Lynx Hawthorne 6'0, 205 JR 10 5.0 0 27 2 (2)
Baylor Corey Coleman 5'11, 190 JR 3 3.0 0 3 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics