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2015 Birmingham Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Memphis vs. Auburn

Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Birmingham Bowl

Auburn Tigers (6-6) vs. Memphis Tigers (9-3)

December 30 ( 12:00 PM ET, ESPN ), Legion Field, Birmingham
Spread: Auburn -2.5
S&P+ Projection: Memphis 32.7, Auburn 29.2
Team Sites: College And Magnolia, Underdog Dynasty (Memphis)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Statistical profiles index.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Auburn Memphis
S&P+ (Rk) 51 36
Category Auburn offense Memphis defense Memphis offense Auburn defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.01 (98) 5.52 (87) 6.17 (24) 5.31 (64)
Yards per game (Rk) 356.8 (101) 425.2 (97) 513.3 (12) 420.3 (91)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.33 (59) 1.91 (52) 3.07 (11) 2.33 (87)
Category Auburn offense Memphis defense Memphis offense Auburn defense
S&P+ (Rk) 31.6 (47) 28.6 (72) 38.2 (21) 25.4 (50)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 108.6 (40) 107.4 (41) 97.1 (88) 104.2 (53)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 108.4 (41) 94.4 (86) 124.0 (18) 105.5 (49)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 100.8 (66) 98.2 (73) 113.3 (27) 105.1 (45)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 119.9 (24) 105.1 (56) 106.5 (49) 107.6 (46)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 119.8 (22) 104.3 (45) 112.7 (39) 95.6 (81)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 93.5 (97) 115.6 (27) 112.5 (37) 111.7 (35)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 121.7 (21) 102.2 (65) 114.3 (34) 98.9 (72)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 103.3 (68) 107.3 (45) 101.5 (77) 116.1 (21)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Auburn

  1. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 41 offense vs. No. 94 defense)
  2. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 53 defense vs. No. 102 offense)
  3. Passing S&P+ (No. 41 offense vs. No. 86 defense)
  4. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 33 offense vs. No. 77 defense)
  5. Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 10 offense vs. No. 51 defense)

Memphis

  1. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 23 offense vs. No. 125 defense)
  2. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 10 offense vs. No. 111 defense)
  3. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 52 offense vs. No. 110 defense)
  4. Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 26 offense vs. No. 74 defense)
  5. Field Position (No. 38 offense vs. No. 84 defense)
Five Factors
Category Auburn offense Memphis defense Memphis offense Auburn defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.11 (122) 1.31 (92) 1.30 (43) 1.10 (8)
EFFICIENCY 44.0% (39) 42.4% (75) 46.2% (20) 46.4% (111)
FIELD POSITION 30.9 (42) 25.8 (4) 31.1 (38) 30.5 (84)
FINISHING DRIVES 4.9 (58) 4.9 (93) 5.6 (6) 4.3 (38)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Auburn 3.30 (37)
Memphis 4.97 (24)
ACTUAL
Auburn 4 (40)
Memphis 6 (30)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Auburn offense Memphis offense
Adj. Pace -1.2 (70) 8.6 (11)
Plays per game 71.2 (87) 83.2 (11)
Possessions per game 11.7 (123) 13.9 (23)
Std. Downs Run Rate 75.8% (8) 56.2% (86)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 28.6% (89) 35.8% (47)
% of solo tackles 68.3% (109) 81.5% (17)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Auburn defense Memphis defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 55.6% (109) 58.9% (73)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 42.3% (6) 33.0% (72)
Overall Havoc Rate 13.3% (111) 13.8% (102)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 6.2% (121) 8.1% (95)
DB Havoc Rate 7.1% (36) 5.4% (93)
PD to INC 38.4% (22) 26.3% (117)

When Auburn has the ball…

Standard Downs
Auburn Offense Memphis Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 100.8 66 98.2 73
Standard Downs Success Rate 48.8 38 46.6 70 Auburn
Standard Downs IsoPPP 0.91 125 0.99 100 Memphis
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.10 30 2.47 15 Memphis
SD Sack Rate 4.5% 57 4.8% 77 Auburn
Passing Downs
Auburn Offense Memphis Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 119.9 24 105.1 56 Auburn
Passing Downs Success Rate 32.1 51 32.6 89 Auburn
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.84 48 1.58 54
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.20 70 3.24 67
PD Sack Rate 5.6% 33 6.8% 77 Auburn

When Memphis has the ball…

Standard Downs
Memphis Offense Auburn Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 113.3 27 105.1 45 Memphis
Standard Downs Success Rate 51.0 24 51.4 111 Memphis big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.19 29 1.18 16 Auburn
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.72 93 3.16 105 Memphis
SD Sack Rate 1.7% 10 3% 111 Memphis big
Passing Downs
Memphis Offense Auburn Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 106.5 49 107.6 46
Passing Downs Success Rate 35.4 26 33.3 97 Memphis big
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.66 90 1.71 20 Auburn big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.36 50 3.58 105 Memphis big
PD Sack Rate 6.5% 52 4.7% 110 Memphis big
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Auburn Jeremy Johnson 6'5, 240 JR 94 156 1043 9 7 60.3% 9 5.5% 5.9
Auburn Sean White 6'0, 200 FR 75 130 1064 1 2 57.7% 10 7.1% 7.0
Memphis Paxton Lynch 6'7, 245 JR 280 407 3670 28 3 68.8% 15 3.6% 8.4
Memphis Clay Holgorsen 6'1, 195 FR 14 20 177 1 1 70.0% 0 0.0% 8.9
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Auburn Peyton Barber RB 5'11, 225 SO 226 976 13 4.3 3.1 34.5%
Auburn Jovon Robinson RB 6'0, 230 JR 90 513 2 5.7 4.5 46.7%
Auburn Kerryon Johnson RB 6'0, 195 FR 46 184 2 4.0 2.3 39.1%
Auburn Roc Thomas RB 5'10, 203 SO 38 232 1 6.1 7.3 39.5%
Memphis Doroland Dorceus RB 5'10, 215 SO 144 613 8 4.3 3.3 37.5%
Memphis Jarvis Cooper RB 6'1, 245 SO 87 363 5 4.2 2.6 34.5%
Memphis Sam Craft ATH 6'0, 210 JR 77 321 5 4.2 4.2 36.4%
Memphis Paxton Lynch QB 6'7, 245 JR 67 345 2 5.1 3.4 41.8%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Auburn Ricardo Louis WR 6'2, 215 SR 81 45 699 3 15.5 8.6 55.6%
Auburn Marcus Davis WR 5'9, 180 JR 35 28 174 1 6.2 5.0 80.0%
Auburn Melvin Ray WR 6'3, 215 SR 33 18 229 2 12.7 6.9 54.5%
Auburn Tony Stevens WR 6'4, 205 JR 22 12 152 1 12.7 6.9 54.5%
Auburn D'haquille Williams WR 6'2, 224 SR 22 12 147 1 12.3 6.7 54.5%
Auburn Kerryon Johnson RB 6'0, 195 FR 20 13 122 0 9.4 6.1 65.0%
Auburn Jason Smith WR 6'1, 180 SO 19 12 192 1 16.0 10.1 63.2%
Memphis Mose Frazier WR 5'11, 190 SR 87 67 784 4 11.7 9.0 77.0%
Memphis Phil Mayhue WR 6'3, 210 SO 68 47 644 1 13.7 9.5 69.1%
Memphis Anthony Miller WR 5'11, 190 SO 61 44 684 5 15.6 11.2 72.1%
Memphis Alan Cross TE 6'1, 235 SR 39 24 229 3 9.5 5.9 61.5%
Memphis Tevin Jones WR 6'2, 225 SR 36 19 300 4 15.8 8.3 52.8%
Memphis Roderick Proctor WR 5'11, 175 SO 29 25 335 0 13.4 11.6 86.2%
Memphis Jae'Lon Oglesby WR 5'11, 175 FR 25 20 167 1 8.4 6.7 80.0%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Auburn Johnathan Ford DB 6'0, 203 JR 89.5 13.1% 3.0 1.0 2 2 2 0
Auburn Kris Frost LB 6'2, 240 SR 61.0 9.0% 2.0 0.0 2 2 1 0
Auburn Cassanova McKinzy LB 6'3, 253 SR 55.5 8.1% 10.0 5.0 0 1 1 0
Auburn Jonathan Jones DB 5'10, 181 SR 55.5 8.1% 1.5 0.0 1 11 1 0
Auburn Blake Countess DB 5'10, 185 SR 53.5 7.9% 2.0 0.0 2 10 0 0
Auburn Tre' Williams LB 6'2, 238 SO 38.5 5.7% 4.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Auburn Carlton Davis DB 6'1, 190 FR 38.5 5.7% 1.0 0.0 3 8 1 0
Auburn Justin Garrett LB 6'1, 228 SR 34.5 5.1% 2.5 1.0 2 0 1 1
Auburn Tray Matthews DB 6'1, 213 SO 34.5 5.1% 1.5 0.0 1 1 1 0
Auburn Montravius Adams DT 6'4, 296 JR 29.0 4.3% 2.5 2.0 0 1 2 0
Auburn Dontavius Russell DL 6'3, 295 FR 25.0 3.7% 4.5 1.5 0 1 0 0
Auburn Devaroe Lawrence DL 6'2, 281 JR 20.0 2.9% 2.0 0.5 0 0 0 0
Auburn Nick Ruffin DB 6'0, 191 SO 20.0 2.9% 0.5 0.0 0 3 0 0
Memphis Leonard Pegues LB 5'11, 240 SR 53.5 8.0% 7.0 1.0 1 0 1 1
Memphis Wynton McManis LB 6'1, 225 SR 52.5 7.9% 5.0 2.5 0 0 0 0
Memphis Genard Avery LB 6'1, 255 SO 47.5 7.1% 6.5 3.0 0 0 0 0
Memphis Reggis Ball DB 5'11, 210 SR 46.5 7.0% 2.0 0.0 3 5 0 1
Memphis Shareef White LB 6'1, 235 SO 41.5 6.2% 6.0 1.0 0 0 1 0
Memphis Chris Morley DB 5'11, 195 JR 38.5 5.8% 1.0 0.0 1 4 0 0
Memphis Dontrell Nelson DB 6'1, 180 JR 38.5 5.8% 1.0 1.0 1 1 0 0
Memphis Arthur Maulet DB 5'11, 190 JR 34.5 5.2% 0.0 0.0 2 7 0 1
Memphis Chauncey Lanier DB 5'10, 185 JR 32.5 4.9% 2.0 1.0 0 5 1 0
Memphis Dion Witty DB 5'10, 190 SR 28.5 4.3% 1.5 0.0 1 5 1 0
Memphis Jackson Dillon LB 6'6, 245 JR 28.0 4.2% 4.5 0.0 0 0 0 1
Memphis Donald Pennington DL 6'2, 295 JR 26.5 4.0% 5.0 2.0 0 1 1 0
Memphis DeMarco Montgomery DE 6'3, 245 JR 21.5 3.2% 5.0 2.0 0 0 0 1
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Auburn Kevin Phillips 6'0, 185 JR 52 41.1 5 23 15 73.1%
Memphis Spencer Smith 6'1, 195 SO 37 47.2 4 11 8 51.4%
Memphis Nick Jacobs 6'1, 195 SO 14 36.0 3 6 11 121.4%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Auburn Daniel Carlson 6'4, 213 SO 63 64.0 45 71.4% 0 2 1 0
Auburn Will Hastings 5'10, 165 FR 1 42.0 0 0.0% 1 1 1 0
Memphis Jake Elliott 5'10, 165 JR 96 64.4 72 75.0% 0 3 1 1
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Auburn Daniel Carlson 6'4, 213 SO 36-36 22-26 84.6%
Memphis Jake Elliott 5'10, 165 JR 62-62 22-26 84.6%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Auburn Johnathan Ford 6'0, 203 JR 14 28.7 0 0 0 (0)
Auburn Kerryon Johnson 6'0, 195 FR 14 27.6 0 0 0 (0)
Memphis Jae'Lon Oglesby 5'11, 175 FR 25 23.5 0 0 1 (0)
Memphis Sam Craft 6'0, 210 JR 10 19.0 0 0 1 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Auburn Marcus Davis 5'9, 180 JR 9 9.4 0 14 0 (0)
Auburn Carlton Davis 6'1, 190 FR 0 0.0 0 1 0 (0)
Memphis Roderick Proctor 5'11, 175 SO 19 7.4 1 15 2 (0)
Memphis Mose Frazier 5'11, 190 SR 4 7.0 0 8 1 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics