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2015 Belk Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Mississippi State vs. NC State

Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
Belk Bowl

NC State Wolfpack (7-5) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4)

December 30 ( 3:30 PM ET, ESPN ), Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte
Spread: Mississippi State -5
S&P+ Projection: Mississippi State 31.0, NC State 29.1
Team Sites: Backing The Pack, For Whom The Cowbell Tolls

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Statistical profiles index.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category NC State Mississippi State
S&P+ (Rk) 27 21
Category NC State offense Mississippi State defense Mississippi State offense NC State defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.58 (51) 5.03 (41) 6.17 (22) 5.27 (60)
Yards per game (Rk) 417.4 (51) 383.3 (54) 449.7 (33) 345.2 (29)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.59 (38) 1.78 (38) 2.68 (30) 1.78 (40)
Category NC State offense Mississippi State defense Mississippi State offense NC State defense
S&P+ (Rk) 34.7 (28) 24.4 (41) 37.6 (24) 23.4 (34)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 125.5 (6) 102.4 (60) 112.0 (27) 105.9 (46)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 103.0 (63) 106.1 (44) 125.8 (13) 95.0 (82)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 122.4 (7) 99.3 (65) 120.0 (12) 95.1 (84)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 95.8 (86) 118.8 (19) 119.9 (25) 117.0 (23)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 140.3 (2) 103.6 (47) 128.9 (6) 100.3 (60)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 120.3 (22) 110.6 (43) 124.6 (14) 103.6 (69)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 103.5 (65) 105.8 (54) 115.7 (29) 112.0 (37)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 92.3 (102) 103.2 (57) 135.9 (2) 115.3 (23)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

NC State

  1. Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 14 offense vs. No. 95 defense)
  2. Field Position (No. 14 defense vs. No. 91 offense)
  3. Run Stuffs (No. 3 defense vs. No. 75 offense)
  4. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 14 defense vs. No. 82 offense)
  5. Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 7 offense vs. No. 65 defense)

Mississippi State

  1. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 16 offense vs. No. 95 defense)
  2. Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 12 offense vs. No. 84 defense)
  3. Passing S&P+ (No. 13 offense vs. No. 82 defense)
  4. Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 21 defense vs. No. 88 offense)
  5. Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 19 defense vs. No. 86 offense)
Five Factors
Category NC State offense Mississippi State defense Mississippi State offense NC State defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.29 (47) 1.15 (19) 1.26 (67) 1.40 (115)
EFFICIENCY 42.4% (61) 43.6% (85) 45.9% (24) 37.8% (31)
FIELD POSITION 33.1 (13) 28.6 (44) 29.0 (91) 27.1 (14)
FINISHING DRIVES 5.2 (30) 4.2 (30) 5.4 (14) 4.5 (54)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
NC State 6.63 (18)
Mississippi State -4.52 (108)
ACTUAL
NC State 10 (14)
Mississippi State -5 (97)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) NC State offense Mississippi State offense
Adj. Pace 1.3 (47) -2.3 (80)
Plays per game 74.8 (56) 72.8 (67)
Possessions per game 13.0 (70) 12.3 (108)
Std. Downs Run Rate 59.9% (65) 42.9% (127)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 33.8% (55) 33.8% (56)
% of solo tackles 71.7% (90) 67.9% (111)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) NC State defense Mississippi State defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 58.2% (86) 57.2% (95)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 37.2% (31) 32.9% (73)
Overall Havoc Rate 18.6% (25) 18.3% (30)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 11.9% (21) 11.6% (24)
DB Havoc Rate 6.5% (57) 6.6% (56)
PD to INC 27.4% (110) 41.7% (3)

When NC State has the ball…

Standard Downs
NC State Offense Mississippi State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 122.4 7 99.3 65 NC State big
Standard Downs Success Rate 49.6 32 50.8 109 NC State big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.22 18 1.30 29 NC State
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.27 15 2.84 60 NC State
SD Sack Rate 7.1% 102 5% 66 Mississippi State
Passing Downs
NC State Offense Mississippi State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 95.8 86 118.8 19 Mississippi State big
Passing Downs Success Rate 28.2 86 28.2 40 Mississippi State
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.53 117 1.78 39 Mississippi State big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.08 81 2.58 13 Mississippi State big
PD Sack Rate 11.4% 116 6.9% 73 Mississippi State

When Mississippi State has the ball…

Standard Downs
Mississippi State Offense NC State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 120.0 12 95.1 84 Mississippi State big
Standard Downs Success Rate 52.6 17 44.5 52 Mississippi State
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.08 79 1.02 122 Mississippi State
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.98 54 2.51 18 NC State
SD Sack Rate 5.7% 82 7.1% 14 NC State big
Passing Downs
Mississippi State Offense NC State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 119.9 25 117.0 23
Passing Downs Success Rate 31.6 57 24.0 12 NC State
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.90 30 1.67 69 Mississippi State
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.36 50 2.51 10 NC State
PD Sack Rate 8% 79 8.9% 32 NC State
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
NC State Jacoby Brissett 6'4, 235 SR 225 367 2448 19 4 61.3% 32 8.0% 5.6
NC State Jalan McClendon 6'5, 212 FR 8 14 69 0 0 57.1% 1 6.7% 4.5
Mississippi State Dak Prescott 6'2, 230 SR 291 435 3413 25 4 66.9% 31 6.7% 6.9
Mississippi State Nick Fitzgerald 6'5, 227 FR 11 14 235 3 0 78.6% 0 0.0% 16.8
Mississippi State Elijah Staley 6'6, 248 FR 3 5 51 1 0 60.0% 0 0.0% 10.2
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
NC State Matthew Dayes RB 5'9, 203 JR 134 865 12 6.5 7.6 40.3%
NC State Jacoby Brissett QB 6'4, 235 SR 82 507 5 6.2 4.5 50.0%
NC State Reggie Gallaspy II RB 5'11, 212 FR 66 316 4 4.8 3.6 39.4%
NC State Jaylen Samuels TE 5'11, 236 SO 53 315 7 5.9 7.8 37.7%
Mississippi State Dak Prescott QB 6'2, 230 SR 118 731 10 6.2 6.0 42.4%
Mississippi State Brandon Holloway RB 5'8, 160 JR 80 372 0 4.7 3.6 40.0%
Mississippi State Ashton Shumpert RB 6'2, 218 JR 54 201 1 3.7 2.9 31.5%
Mississippi State Aeris Williams RB 6'1, 205 FR 37 167 2 4.5 2.6 45.9%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
NC State Jaylen Samuels TE 5'11, 236 SO 79 64 599 7 9.4 7.6 81.0%
NC State Jumichael Ramos WR 6'2, 200 JR 45 29 382 3 13.2 8.5 64.4%
NC State Nyheim Hines WR 5'9, 190 FR 39 20 256 1 12.8 6.6 51.3%
NC State Bra'Lon Cherry WR 5'11, 191 JR 37 22 299 0 13.6 8.1 59.5%
NC State David J. Grinnage TE 6'5, 265 JR 37 23 272 3 11.8 7.4 62.2%
NC State Johnathan Alston WR 6'0, 203 JR 35 16 151 1 9.4 4.3 45.7%
NC State Matthew Dayes RB 5'9, 203 JR 30 24 172 0 7.2 5.7 80.0%
Mississippi State Fred Ross WR 6'2, 207 JR 112 81 933 4 11.5 8.3 72.3%
Mississippi State De'Runnya Wilson WR 6'5, 215 JR 88 55 822 9 15.0 9.3 62.5%
Mississippi State Brandon Holloway RB 5'8, 160 JR 38 29 318 3 11.0 8.4 76.3%
Mississippi State Fred Brown WR 6'1, 196 JR 37 25 371 3 14.8 10.0 67.6%
Mississippi State Donald Gray WR 5'10, 193 SO 28 19 346 2 18.2 12.4 67.9%
Mississippi State Malik Dear WR 5'9, 220 FR 27 20 201 2 10.1 7.4 74.1%
Mississippi State Gus Walley TE 6'4, 242 JR 25 19 146 1 7.7 5.8 76.0%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
NC State Airius Moore LB 6'0, 232 SO 50.0 8.9% 7.5 0.5 0 1 0 0
NC State Hakim Jones S 6'2, 205 SR 45.5 8.1% 2.5 0.0 2 2 1 0
NC State Bradley Chubb DE 6'4, 260 SO 44.5 8.0% 10.5 5.5 1 1 3 0
NC State Josh Jones S 6'2, 215 SO 42.5 7.6% 2.5 0.5 1 2 0 0
NC State B.J. Hill DT 6'4, 300 SO 34.5 6.2% 11.0 3.5 0 3 0 0
NC State Mike Rose DE 6'3, 270 SR 34.0 6.1% 15.0 10.5 0 0 2 0
NC State Dravious Wright DB 5'10, 208 JR 33.0 5.9% 4.5 2.0 0 1 1 0
NC State Juston Burris CB 6'1, 207 SR 30.5 5.5% 3.0 0.0 1 5 1 0
NC State Jerod Fernandez LB 6'0, 231 SO 25.5 4.6% 2.0 0.5 2 0 0 0
NC State Justin Jones DT 6'2, 300 SO 25.0 4.5% 6.5 2.0 0 0 1 0
NC State Riley Nicholson LB 6'0, 229 FR 21.5 3.8% 3.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
NC State Kentavius Street DT 6'2, 290 SO 20.5 3.7% 3.0 0.5 0 2 1 0
NC State Germaine Pratt S 6'3, 234 SO 20.5 3.7% 1.5 0.0 1 1 2 0
Mississippi State Richie Brown LB 6'2, 245 JR 74.0 10.2% 12.0 5.5 1 2 0 0
Mississippi State Beniquez Brown LB 6'1, 238 JR 66.5 9.2% 9.0 2.0 1 2 0 0
Mississippi State Kivon Coman DB 6'3, 196 JR 54.5 7.5% 4.0 0.5 1 6 0 0
Mississippi State Brandon Bryant DB 5'11, 205 FR 49.5 6.8% 2.0 1.5 2 3 1 0
Mississippi State J.T. Gray LB 6'0, 196 SO 40.0 5.5% 2.5 0.5 0 0 0 0
Mississippi State A.J. Jefferson DL 6'3, 277 JR 35.5 4.9% 13.5 5.0 0 3 1 0
Mississippi State Zach Jackson LB 6'2, 212 SR 32.0 4.4% 4.0 1.0 0 2 0 0
Mississippi State Tolando Cleveland DB 6'0, 190 JR 31.5 4.4% 3.5 1.0 0 2 1 0
Mississippi State Gerri Green LB 6'4, 243 FR 31.5 4.4% 2.5 0.0 1 1 0 0
Mississippi State Taveze Calhoun DB 6'1, 180 SR 30.0 4.1% 6.5 0.0 2 7 0 0
Mississippi State Chris Jones DL 6'6, 308 JR 26.5 3.7% 7.5 2.5 0 4 0 0
Mississippi State Ryan Brown DL 6'6, 266 SR 26.0 3.6% 8.0 2.5 0 5 0 0
Mississippi State Deontay Evans DB 5'10, 204 JR 26.0 3.6% 0.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
NC State A.J. Cole III 6'4, 238 FR 61 42.1 6 22 24 75.4%
NC State Kyle Bambard 5'8, 190 FR 1 49.0 0 0 0 0.0%
Mississippi State Logan Cooke 6'5, 216 SO 40 42.6 6 19 14 82.5%
Mississippi State Devon Bell 6'2, 190 SR 9 41.1 1 4 2 66.7%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
NC State Jackson Maples 5'10, 195 FR 69 61.7 38 55.1% 3 5 4 0
NC State Kyle Bambard 5'8, 190 FR 1 60.0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
Mississippi State Devon Bell 6'2, 190 SR 72 62.1 31 43.1% 0 2 0 0
Mississippi State Logan Cooke 6'5, 216 SO 4 49.3 2 50.0% 0 0 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
NC State Kyle Bambard 5'8, 190 FR 50-52 7-14 50.0%
NC State Jackson Maples 5'10, 195 FR 1-1 0-0 #DIV/0!
Mississippi State Westin Graves 6'0, 163 SO 46-47 14-17 82.4%
Mississippi State Devon Bell 6'2, 190 SR 2-2 0-1 0.0%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
NC State Nyheim Hines 5'9, 190 FR 29 27.3 1 0 0 (0)
NC State Bra'Lon Cherry 5'11, 191 JR 3 34.0 0 0 0 (0)
Mississippi State Brandon Holloway 5'8, 160 JR 21 23.7 1 0 1 (1)
Mississippi State Malik Dear 5'9, 220 FR 5 19.8 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
NC State Bra'Lon Cherry 5'11, 191 JR 27 13.3 1 20 0 (0)
NC State Gavin Locklear 5'10, 186 SO 1 5.0 0 0 0 (0)
Mississippi State Fred Ross 6'2, 207 JR 15 10.5 1 21 2 (2)
Mississippi State Malik Dear 5'9, 220 FR 1 7.0 0 0 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics