2015 Belk Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Mississippi State vs. NC State

Belk Bowl

NC State Wolfpack (7-5) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4)

December 30 ( 3:30 PM ET, ESPN ), Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte

Spread: Mississippi State -5

S&P+ Projection: Mississippi State 31.0, NC State 29.1

Team Sites: Backing The Pack, For Whom The Cowbell Tolls

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.}

_{Statistical profiles index.}

_{Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	NC State		Mississippi State
S&P+ (Rk)	27		21
Category	NC State offense	Mississippi State defense	Mississippi State offense	NC State defense
Yards per play (Rk)	5.58 (51)	5.03 (41)	6.17 (22)	5.27 (60)
Yards per game (Rk)	417.4 (51)	383.3 (54)	449.7 (33)	345.2 (29)
Points per possession (Rk)	2.59 (38)	1.78 (38)	2.68 (30)	1.78 (40)
Category	NC State offense	Mississippi State defense	Mississippi State offense	NC State defense
S&P+ (Rk)	34.7 (28)	24.4 (41)	37.6 (24)	23.4 (34)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	125.5 (6)	102.4 (60)	112.0 (27)	105.9 (46)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	103.0 (63)	106.1 (44)	125.8 (13)	95.0 (82)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	122.4 (7)	99.3 (65)	120.0 (12)	95.1 (84)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	95.8 (86)	118.8 (19)	119.9 (25)	117.0 (23)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	140.3 (2)	103.6 (47)	128.9 (6)	100.3 (60)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	120.3 (22)	110.6 (43)	124.6 (14)	103.6 (69)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	103.5 (65)	105.8 (54)	115.7 (29)	112.0 (37)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	92.3 (102)	103.2 (57)	135.9 (2)	115.3 (23)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

NC State

1. Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 14 offense vs. No. 95 defense)
2. Field Position (No. 14 defense vs. No. 91 offense)
3. Run Stuffs (No. 3 defense vs. No. 75 offense)
4. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 14 defense vs. No. 82 offense)
5. Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 7 offense vs. No. 65 defense)

Mississippi State

1. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 16 offense vs. No. 95 defense)
2. Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 12 offense vs. No. 84 defense)
3. Passing S&P+ (No. 13 offense vs. No. 82 defense)
4. Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 21 defense vs. No. 88 offense)
5. Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 19 defense vs. No. 86 offense)

Five Factors

Category	NC State offense	Mississippi State defense	Mississippi State offense	NC State defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.29 (47)	1.15 (19)	1.26 (67)	1.40 (115)
EFFICIENCY	42.4% (61)	43.6% (85)	45.9% (24)	37.8% (31)
FIELD POSITION	33.1 (13)	28.6 (44)	29.0 (91)	27.1 (14)
FINISHING DRIVES	5.2 (30)	4.2 (30)	5.4 (14)	4.5 (54)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: NC State 6.63 (18) Mississippi State -4.52 (108)		ACTUAL NC State 10 (14) Mississippi State -5 (97)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	NC State offense	Mississippi State offense
Adj. Pace	1.3 (47)	-2.3 (80)
Plays per game	74.8 (56)	72.8 (67)
Possessions per game	13.0 (70)	12.3 (108)
Std. Downs Run Rate	59.9% (65)	42.9% (127)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	33.8% (55)	33.8% (56)
% of solo tackles	71.7% (90)	67.9% (111)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	NC State defense	Mississippi State defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	58.2% (86)	57.2% (95)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	37.2% (31)	32.9% (73)
Overall Havoc Rate	18.6% (25)	18.3% (30)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	11.9% (21)	11.6% (24)
DB Havoc Rate	6.5% (57)	6.6% (56)
PD to INC	27.4% (110)	41.7% (3)

When NC State has the ball…

Standard Downs

	NC State Offense		Mississippi State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	122.4	7	99.3	65	NC State big
Standard Downs Success Rate	49.6	32	50.8	109	NC State big
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.22	18	1.30	29	NC State
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.27	15	2.84	60	NC State
SD Sack Rate	7.1%	102	5%	66	Mississippi State

Passing Downs

	NC State Offense		Mississippi State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	95.8	86	118.8	19	Mississippi State big
Passing Downs Success Rate	28.2	86	28.2	40	Mississippi State
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.53	117	1.78	39	Mississippi State big
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.08	81	2.58	13	Mississippi State big
PD Sack Rate	11.4%	116	6.9%	73	Mississippi State

When Mississippi State has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Mississippi State Offense		NC State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	120.0	12	95.1	84	Mississippi State big
Standard Downs Success Rate	52.6	17	44.5	52	Mississippi State
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.08	79	1.02	122	Mississippi State
SD Line Yards per Carry	2.98	54	2.51	18	NC State
SD Sack Rate	5.7%	82	7.1%	14	NC State big

Passing Downs

	Mississippi State Offense		NC State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	119.9	25	117.0	23
Passing Downs Success Rate	31.6	57	24.0	12	NC State
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.90	30	1.67	69	Mississippi State
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.36	50	2.51	10	NC State
PD Sack Rate	8%	79	8.9%	32	NC State

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
NC State	Jacoby Brissett	6'4, 235	SR	225	367	2448	19	4	61.3%	32	8.0%	5.6
NC State	Jalan McClendon	6'5, 212	FR	8	14	69	0	0	57.1%	1	6.7%	4.5
Mississippi State	Dak Prescott	6'2, 230	SR	291	435	3413	25	4	66.9%	31	6.7%	6.9
Mississippi State	Nick Fitzgerald	6'5, 227	FR	11	14	235	3	0	78.6%	0	0.0%	16.8
Mississippi State	Elijah Staley	6'6, 248	FR	3	5	51	1	0	60.0%	0	0.0%	10.2

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
NC State	Matthew Dayes	RB	5'9, 203	JR	134	865	12	6.5	7.6	40.3%
NC State	Jacoby Brissett	QB	6'4, 235	SR	82	507	5	6.2	4.5	50.0%
NC State	Reggie Gallaspy II	RB	5'11, 212	FR	66	316	4	4.8	3.6	39.4%
NC State	Jaylen Samuels	TE	5'11, 236	SO	53	315	7	5.9	7.8	37.7%
Mississippi State	Dak Prescott	QB	6'2, 230	SR	118	731	10	6.2	6.0	42.4%
Mississippi State	Brandon Holloway	RB	5'8, 160	JR	80	372	0	4.7	3.6	40.0%
Mississippi State	Ashton Shumpert	RB	6'2, 218	JR	54	201	1	3.7	2.9	31.5%
Mississippi State	Aeris Williams	RB	6'1, 205	FR	37	167	2	4.5	2.6	45.9%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
NC State	Jaylen Samuels	TE	5'11, 236	SO	79	64	599	7	9.4	7.6	81.0%
NC State	Jumichael Ramos	WR	6'2, 200	JR	45	29	382	3	13.2	8.5	64.4%
NC State	Nyheim Hines	WR	5'9, 190	FR	39	20	256	1	12.8	6.6	51.3%
NC State	Bra'Lon Cherry	WR	5'11, 191	JR	37	22	299	0	13.6	8.1	59.5%
NC State	David J. Grinnage	TE	6'5, 265	JR	37	23	272	3	11.8	7.4	62.2%
NC State	Johnathan Alston	WR	6'0, 203	JR	35	16	151	1	9.4	4.3	45.7%
NC State	Matthew Dayes	RB	5'9, 203	JR	30	24	172	0	7.2	5.7	80.0%
Mississippi State	Fred Ross	WR	6'2, 207	JR	112	81	933	4	11.5	8.3	72.3%
Mississippi State	De'Runnya Wilson	WR	6'5, 215	JR	88	55	822	9	15.0	9.3	62.5%
Mississippi State	Brandon Holloway	RB	5'8, 160	JR	38	29	318	3	11.0	8.4	76.3%
Mississippi State	Fred Brown	WR	6'1, 196	JR	37	25	371	3	14.8	10.0	67.6%
Mississippi State	Donald Gray	WR	5'10, 193	SO	28	19	346	2	18.2	12.4	67.9%
Mississippi State	Malik Dear	WR	5'9, 220	FR	27	20	201	2	10.1	7.4	74.1%
Mississippi State	Gus Walley	TE	6'4, 242	JR	25	19	146	1	7.7	5.8	76.0%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
NC State	Airius Moore	LB	6'0, 232	SO	50.0	8.9%	7.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
NC State	Hakim Jones	S	6'2, 205	SR	45.5	8.1%	2.5	0.0	2	2	1	0
NC State	Bradley Chubb	DE	6'4, 260	SO	44.5	8.0%	10.5	5.5	1	1	3	0
NC State	Josh Jones	S	6'2, 215	SO	42.5	7.6%	2.5	0.5	1	2	0	0
NC State	B.J. Hill	DT	6'4, 300	SO	34.5	6.2%	11.0	3.5	0	3	0	0
NC State	Mike Rose	DE	6'3, 270	SR	34.0	6.1%	15.0	10.5	0	0	2	0
NC State	Dravious Wright	DB	5'10, 208	JR	33.0	5.9%	4.5	2.0	0	1	1	0
NC State	Juston Burris	CB	6'1, 207	SR	30.5	5.5%	3.0	0.0	1	5	1	0
NC State	Jerod Fernandez	LB	6'0, 231	SO	25.5	4.6%	2.0	0.5	2	0	0	0
NC State	Justin Jones	DT	6'2, 300	SO	25.0	4.5%	6.5	2.0	0	0	1	0
NC State	Riley Nicholson	LB	6'0, 229	FR	21.5	3.8%	3.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
NC State	Kentavius Street	DT	6'2, 290	SO	20.5	3.7%	3.0	0.5	0	2	1	0
NC State	Germaine Pratt	S	6'3, 234	SO	20.5	3.7%	1.5	0.0	1	1	2	0
Mississippi State	Richie Brown	LB	6'2, 245	JR	74.0	10.2%	12.0	5.5	1	2	0	0
Mississippi State	Beniquez Brown	LB	6'1, 238	JR	66.5	9.2%	9.0	2.0	1	2	0	0
Mississippi State	Kivon Coman	DB	6'3, 196	JR	54.5	7.5%	4.0	0.5	1	6	0	0
Mississippi State	Brandon Bryant	DB	5'11, 205	FR	49.5	6.8%	2.0	1.5	2	3	1	0
Mississippi State	J.T. Gray	LB	6'0, 196	SO	40.0	5.5%	2.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Mississippi State	A.J. Jefferson	DL	6'3, 277	JR	35.5	4.9%	13.5	5.0	0	3	1	0
Mississippi State	Zach Jackson	LB	6'2, 212	SR	32.0	4.4%	4.0	1.0	0	2	0	0
Mississippi State	Tolando Cleveland	DB	6'0, 190	JR	31.5	4.4%	3.5	1.0	0	2	1	0
Mississippi State	Gerri Green	LB	6'4, 243	FR	31.5	4.4%	2.5	0.0	1	1	0	0
Mississippi State	Taveze Calhoun	DB	6'1, 180	SR	30.0	4.1%	6.5	0.0	2	7	0	0
Mississippi State	Chris Jones	DL	6'6, 308	JR	26.5	3.7%	7.5	2.5	0	4	0	0
Mississippi State	Ryan Brown	DL	6'6, 266	SR	26.0	3.6%	8.0	2.5	0	5	0	0
Mississippi State	Deontay Evans	DB	5'10, 204	JR	26.0	3.6%	0.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
NC State	A.J. Cole III	6'4, 238	FR	61	42.1	6	22	24	75.4%
NC State	Kyle Bambard	5'8, 190	FR	1	49.0	0	0	0	0.0%
Mississippi State	Logan Cooke	6'5, 216	SO	40	42.6	6	19	14	82.5%
Mississippi State	Devon Bell	6'2, 190	SR	9	41.1	1	4	2	66.7%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
NC State	Jackson Maples	5'10, 195	FR	69	61.7	38	55.1%	3	5	4	0
NC State	Kyle Bambard	5'8, 190	FR	1	60.0	0	0.0%	0	0	0	0
Mississippi State	Devon Bell	6'2, 190	SR	72	62.1	31	43.1%	0	2	0	0
Mississippi State	Logan Cooke	6'5, 216	SO	4	49.3	2	50.0%	0	0	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
NC State	Kyle Bambard	5'8, 190	FR	50-52	7-14	50.0%
NC State	Jackson Maples	5'10, 195	FR	1-1	0-0	#DIV/0!
Mississippi State	Westin Graves	6'0, 163	SO	46-47	14-17	82.4%
Mississippi State	Devon Bell	6'2, 190	SR	2-2	0-1	0.0%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
NC State	Nyheim Hines	5'9, 190	FR	29	27.3	1	0	0 (0)
NC State	Bra'Lon Cherry	5'11, 191	JR	3	34.0	0	0	0 (0)
Mississippi State	Brandon Holloway	5'8, 160	JR	21	23.7	1	0	1 (1)
Mississippi State	Malik Dear	5'9, 220	FR	5	19.8	0	0	0 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
NC State	Bra'Lon Cherry	5'11, 191	JR	27	13.3	1	20	0 (0)
NC State	Gavin Locklear	5'10, 186	SO	1	5.0	0	0	0 (0)
Mississippi State	Fred Ross	6'2, 207	JR	15	10.5	1	21	2 (2)
Mississippi State	Malik Dear	5'9, 220	FR	1	7.0	0	0	0 (0)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}