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2015 Music City Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Louisville vs. Texas A&M

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Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) vs. Louisville Cardinals (7-5)

December 30 ( 7:00 PM ET, ESPN ), Nissan Stadium, Nashville
Spread: Texas A&M -3
S&P+ Projection: Louisville 27.5, Texas A&M 24.5
Team Sites: Good Bull Hunting, Card Chronicle

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Statistical profiles index.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Texas A&M Louisville
S&P+ (Rk) 44 32
Category Texas A&M offense Louisville defense Louisville offense Texas A&M defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.39 (63) 4.62 (17) 5.60 (49) 5.01 (39)
Yards per game (Rk) 425.7 (42) 323.3 (15) 402.0 (61) 366.9 (45)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.15 (70) 1.80 (44) 2.11 (75) 1.63 (27)
Category Texas A&M offense Louisville defense Louisville offense Texas A&M defense
S&P+ (Rk) 29.7 (58) 20.8 (22) 31.2 (50) 22.4 (30)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 114.3 (22) 123.3 (7) 113.1 (24) 96.4 (82)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 96.2 (80) 104.7 (51) 103.6 (60) 142.7 (2)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 105.0 (49) 114.6 (20) 103.6 (53) 110.6 (33)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 97.9 (77) 107.9 (43) 120.3 (23) 124.0 (14)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 123.2 (17) 123.8 (17) 104.4 (61) 101.1 (57)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 112.3 (38) 111.2 (38) 114.2 (32) 127.1 (13)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 77.8 (122) 113.9 (31) 114.8 (31) 107.4 (49)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 104.0 (63) 120.1 (16) 115.8 (19) 119.6 (17)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Texas A&M

  1. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 5 defense vs. No. 118 offense)
  2. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 6 defense vs. No. 107 offense)
  3. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 48 defense vs. No. 127 offense)
  4. Run Stuffs (No. 35 defense vs. No. 103 offense)
  5. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 2 defense vs. No. 62 offense)

Louisville

  1. Q3 S&P+ (No. 27 vs. No. 104 )
  2. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 26 offense vs. No. 87 defense)
  3. Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 31 defense vs. No. 91 offense)
  4. Rushing S&P+ (No. 24 offense vs. No. 82 defense)
  5. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 8 defense vs. No. 63 offense)
Five Factors
Category Texas A&M offense Louisville defense Louisville offense Texas A&M defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.19 (99) 1.20 (36) 1.31 (37) 1.21 (44)
EFFICIENCY 43.0% (50) 37.0% (24) 40.8% (79) 38.4% (40)
FIELD POSITION 30.6 (49) 29.9 (70) 31.1 (40) 28.0 (31)
FINISHING DRIVES 4.4 (92) 5.1 (105) 4.6 (83) 4.0 (24)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Texas A&M -2.65 (95)
Louisville -2.84 (96)
ACTUAL
Texas A&M -4 (94)
Louisville -3 (87)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Texas A&M offense Louisville offense
Adj. Pace 3.0 (33) -3.5 (95)
Plays per game 78.9 (26) 71.8 (79)
Possessions per game 13.2 (60) 13.7 (36)
Std. Downs Run Rate 53.0% (102) 53.9% (96)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 33.5% (57) 37.7% (35)
% of solo tackles 66.9% (116) 75.9% (51)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Texas A&M defense Louisville defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 67.9% (10) 61.3% (51)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 37.4% (28) 31.3% (83)
Overall Havoc Rate 20.8% (7) 19.5% (15)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 13.0% (8) 12.3% (14)
DB Havoc Rate 7.8% (19) 6.8% (46)
PD to INC 41.2% (6) 33.3% (57)

When Texas A&M has the ball…

Standard Downs
Texas A&M Offense Louisville Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 105.0 49 114.6 20 Louisville
Standard Downs Success Rate 47.9 49 41.6 22 Louisville
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.08 72 0.96 43 Louisville
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.34 10 2.57 26 Texas A&M
SD Sack Rate 6.5% 96 5.3% 54 Louisville
Passing Downs
Texas A&M Offense Louisville Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 97.9 77 107.9 43 Louisville
Passing Downs Success Rate 31.3 60 28.7 49 Louisville
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.60 101 2.27 24 Louisville big
PD Line Yards per Carry 4.01 9 2.82 33 Texas A&M
PD Sack Rate 7.2% 63 12% 8 Louisville big

When Louisville has the ball…

Standard Downs
Louisville Offense Texas A&M Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 103.6 53 110.6 33 Texas A&M
Standard Downs Success Rate 44.4 98 46.9 73 Texas A&M
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.16 41 1.05 7 Texas A&M
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.91 65 2.99 83 Louisville
SD Sack Rate 11.2% 127 5.4% 48 Texas A&M big
Passing Downs
Louisville Offense Texas A&M Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 120.3 23 124.0 14
Passing Downs Success Rate 33.9 39 21.7 4 Texas A&M
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.69 87 1.59 127 Louisville
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.10 80 3.52 96 Louisville
PD Sack Rate 10.6% 107 12.9% 6 Texas A&M big
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Texas A&M Kyle Allen 6'3, 210 SO 160 283 2210 17 7 56.5% 23 7.5% 6.7
Texas A&M Kyler Murray 5'11, 188 FR 72 121 686 5 7 59.5% 8 6.2% 4.9
Texas A&M Jake Hubenak 6'3, 195 SO 12 27 92 1 0 44.4% 1 3.6% 3.0
Louisville Lamar Jackson 6'3, 196 FR 123 221 1613 10 8 55.7% 25 10.2% 5.9
Louisville Kyle Bolin 6'2, 208 SO 78 137 1154 7 6 56.9% 12 8.1% 7.2
Louisville Reggie Bonnafon 6'3, 209 SO 14 24 192 2 1 58.3% 6 20.0% 5.0
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Texas A&M Tra Carson RB 6'0, 235 SR 223 1059 6 4.7 3.4 41.3%
Texas A&M James White RB 6'0, 220 SO 50 189 1 3.8 2.4 38.0%
Texas A&M Kyler Murray QB 5'11, 188 FR 45 387 1 8.6 6.9 62.2%
Texas A&M Kyle Allen QB 6'3, 210 SO 43 258 2 6.0 4.1 51.2%
Louisville Brandon Radcliff RB 5'9, 214 JR 128 587 7 4.6 6.2 32.0%
Louisville Lamar Jackson QB 6'3, 196 FR 116 907 9 7.8 7.2 53.4%
Louisville Jeremy Smith RB 6'2, 225 SO 60 270 3 4.5 4.7 35.0%
Louisville L.J. Scott RB 6'0, 226 SO 34 153 2 4.5 5.8 32.4%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Texas A&M Christian Kirk WR 5'11, 200 FR 111 70 925 6 13.2 8.3 63.1%
Texas A&M Ricky Seals-Jones WR 6'5, 240 SO 70 42 542 3 12.9 7.7 60.0%
Texas A&M Josh Reynolds WR 6'4, 195 JR 67 40 730 5 18.3 10.9 59.7%
Texas A&M Speedy Noil WR 5'11, 192 SO 46 21 226 2 10.8 4.9 45.7%
Texas A&M Damion Ratley WR 6'1, 190 SO 32 15 200 2 13.3 6.3 46.9%
Texas A&M Tra Carson RB 6'0, 235 SR 31 28 176 1 6.3 5.7 90.3%
Texas A&M Jeremy Tabuyo WR 5'11, 192 JR 15 9 102 3 11.3 6.8 60.0%
Louisville James Quick WR 6'1, 191 JR 65 35 551 5 15.7 8.5 53.8%
Louisville Jaylen Smith WR 6'4, 184 FR 56 27 372 1 13.8 6.6 48.2%
Louisville Jamari Staples WR 6'4, 195 JR 52 36 610 3 16.9 11.7 69.2%
Louisville Traveon Samuel WR 5'7, 175 FR 26 19 187 1 9.8 7.2 73.1%
Louisville Devonte Peete WR 6'6, 203 FR 24 12 166 1 13.8 6.9 50.0%
Louisville Cole Hikutini TE 6'5, 240 JR 23 16 245 3 15.3 10.7 69.6%
Louisville Ja'Quay Savage WR 6'3, 214 SR 22 12 135 1 11.3 6.1 54.5%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Texas A&M Armani Watts DB 5'11, 200 SO 91.0 12.8% 5.0 0.0 1 2 1 0
Texas A&M Justin Evans DB 6'1, 195 JR 59.5 8.4% 1.0 0.0 1 3 0 0
Texas A&M Shaan Washington LB 6'3, 235 JR 52.5 7.4% 7.5 1.0 0 3 1 0
Texas A&M Myles Garrett DL 6'5, 262 SO 46.5 6.6% 18.5 11.5 1 2 5 0
Texas A&M Donovan Wilson DB 6'1, 205 SO 44.5 6.3% 7.5 2.0 5 3 3 0
Texas A&M A.J. Hilliard LB 6'2, 245 JR 41.5 5.9% 4.0 1.0 0 1 1 0
Texas A&M Daeshon Hall DL 6'6, 260 JR 34.0 4.8% 12.5 7.0 0 2 2 0
Texas A&M Brandon Williams DB 6'0, 205 SR 28.5 4.0% 1.0 0.0 0 7 0 0
Texas A&M De'Vante Harris DB 5'11, 185 SR 26.0 3.7% 1.0 0.0 2 8 0 0
Texas A&M Richard Moore LB 6'0, 215 FR 24.5 3.5% 5.5 1.0 0 0 0 0
Texas A&M Daylon Mack DL 6'1, 335 FR 22.0 3.1% 8.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
Texas A&M Zaycoven Henderson DL 6'1, 297 SO 20.5 2.9% 6.5 3.0 0 0 0 0
Texas A&M Nick Harvey DB 5'10, 180 SO 20.0 2.8% 2.0 0.0 0 4 0 0
Louisville Keith Kelsey LB 6'1, 236 JR 76.5 12.0% 12.0 3.5 0 2 1 1
Louisville James Burgess LB 6'0, 229 SR 72.0 11.3% 9.0 0.0 1 4 0 2
Louisville Josh Harvey-Clemons S 6'5, 230 JR 61.5 9.7% 1.0 0.0 2 3 0 0
Louisville Devonte Fields LB 6'4, 245 JR 47.0 7.4% 19.5 8.0 0 1 2 0
Louisville Chucky Williams S 6'2, 204 SO 46.0 7.2% 1.0 0.0 3 4 1 0
Louisville Trumaine Washington CB 5'10, 183 SO 44.0 6.9% 7.0 2.0 4 5 3 0
Louisville Sheldon Rankins DE 6'2, 303 SR 40.0 6.3% 12.0 6.0 0 1 0 1
Louisville DeAngelo Brown DT 6'1, 308 JR 28.0 4.4% 6.5 2.0 0 0 0 0
Louisville Jermaine Reve S 6'0, 192 SR 26.5 4.2% 0.5 0.0 1 1 2 0
Louisville Trevon Young LB 6'4, 229 SR 25.5 4.0% 10.0 8.5 1 2 2 0
Louisville Keith Brown LB 6'1, 237 JR 24.5 3.8% 2.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Louisville Shaq Wiggins CB 5'10, 171 SO 24.0 3.8% 0.5 0.0 2 10 0 0
Louisville Pio Vatuvei DE 6'2, 296 SR 17.5 2.7% 3.0 0.5 0 1 1 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Texas A&M Drew Kaser 6'3, 215 SR 53 48.0 8 11 17 52.8%
Texas A&M Shane Tripucka 6'3, 210 SO 2 44.0 1 0 1 50.0%
Louisville Joshua Appleby 6'3, 222 SR 63 40.2 3 35 24 93.7%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Texas A&M Taylor Bertolet 5'9, 188 SR 67 62.5 31 46.3% 0 1 0 0
Texas A&M Daniel LaCamera 6'4, 210 FR 4 63.0 2 50.0% 0 0 0 0
Louisville John Wallace 6'0, 190 SR 68 63.1 27 39.7% 0 0 1 0
Louisville Joshua Appleby 6'3, 222 SR 1 46.0 0 0.0% 1 0 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Texas A&M Taylor Bertolet 5'9, 188 SR 35-35 22-30 73.3%
Texas A&M Daniel LaCamera 6'4, 210 FR 3-3 0-0 N/A
Louisville John Wallace 6'0, 190 SR 43-43 15-20 75.0%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Texas A&M Christian Kirk 5'11, 200 FR 18 19.3 0 0 2 (2)
Texas A&M Speedy Noil 5'11, 192 SO 11 21.9 0 0 0 (0)
Louisville Corvin Lamb 5'9, 208 SR 16 17.3 0 0 1 (0)
Louisville Traveon Samuel 5'7, 175 FR 9 30.0 1 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Texas A&M Christian Kirk 5'11, 200 FR 14 24.4 2 20 1 (1)
Texas A&M Speedy Noil 5'11, 192 SO 2 8.5 0 2 0 (0)
Louisville Jaire Alexander 5'11, 170 FR 20 8.7 0 13 2 (0)
Louisville Cornelius Sturghill 5'11, 186 FR 4 -0.3 0 0 1 (1)

Stats via SportSource Analytics