2016 Citrus Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Florida vs. Michigan

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl

No. 14 Michigan Wolverines (9-3) vs. No. 19 Florida Gators (10-3)

January 01 ( 1:00 PM ET, ABC ), Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando

Spread: Michigan -4

S&P+ Projection: Michigan 25.8, Florida 19.7

Team Sites: Maize n Brew, Alligator Army

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.}

_{Statistical profiles index.}

_{Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	Michigan		Florida
S&P+ (Rk)	6		17
Category	Michigan offense	Florida defense	Florida offense	Michigan defense
Yards per play (Rk)	5.36 (69)	4.32 (6)	4.84 (109)	4.38 (7)
Yards per game (Rk)	383.9 (71)	295.4 (6)	330.5 (114)	295.7 (7)
Points per possession (Rk)	2.50 (44)	1.25 (7)	1.87 (96)	1.40 (14)
Category	Michigan offense	Florida defense	Florida offense	Michigan defense
S&P+ (Rk)	33.7 (34)	14.8 (5)	29.4 (61)	13.0 (2)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	104.6 (61)	126.7 (5)	100.4 (73)	113.3 (28)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	124.5 (17)	127.0 (7)	108.1 (44)	125.9 (11)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	108.0 (41)	111.9 (29)	104.8 (50)	117.0 (14)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	132.2 (10)	158.7 (2)	103.6 (57)	124.2 (13)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	111.8 (42)	138.2 (4)	118.8 (25)	135.8 (7)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	122.8 (17)	111.5 (36)	110.3 (44)	127.7 (12)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	114.7 (32)	159.5 (1)	92.0 (100)	123.2 (17)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	92.6 (101)	109.5 (39)	98.5 (85)	134.0 (4)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

Michigan

1. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 28 defense vs. No. 119 offense)
2. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 22 defense vs. No. 68 offense)
3. Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 12 defense vs. No. 44 offense)
4. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 11 defense vs. No. 45 offense)
5. Redzone S&P+ (No. 6 defense vs. No. 60 offense)

Florida

1. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 6 defense vs. No. 55 offense)
2. Standard Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 29 defense vs. No. 39 offense)
3. First Down S&P+ (No. 16 defense vs. No. 63 offense)
4. Standard Downs S&P+ (No. 29 defense vs. No. 41 offense)
5. Rushing S&P+ (No. 5 defense vs. No. 61 offense)

Five Factors

Category	Michigan offense	Florida defense	Florida offense	Michigan defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.29 (49)	1.22 (54)	1.21 (90)	1.25 (69)
EFFICIENCY	44.9% (29)	33.1% (7)	38.5% (101)	34.5% (12)
FIELD POSITION	34.1 (5)	25.9 (7)	32.9 (14)	27.9 (29)
FINISHING DRIVES	5.0 (44)	4.3 (37)	4.3 (96)	3.9 (17)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: Michigan 0.01 (71) Florida 7.68 (14)		ACTUAL Michigan -6 (103) Florida 10 (14)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Michigan offense	Florida offense
Adj. Pace	-2.6 (84)	-5.4 (114)
Plays per game	71.7 (81)	68.2 (109)
Possessions per game	12.3 (112)	13.1 (68)
Std. Downs Run Rate	57.1% (81)	55.4% (91)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	27.3% (98)	37.1% (38)
% of solo tackles	74.6% (69)	75.4% (59)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Michigan defense	Florida defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	58.8% (77)	60.0% (62)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	36.7% (38)	36.1% (44)
Overall Havoc Rate	19.3% (17)	21.1% (6)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	10.5% (40)	12.5% (12)
DB Havoc Rate	8.8% (8)	8.6% (11)
PD to INC	33.0% (62)	37.2% (29)

When Michigan has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Michigan Offense		Florida Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	108.0	41	111.9	29	Florida
Standard Downs Success Rate	48.4	41	41.1	18	Florida
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.11	61	1.10	62
SD Line Yards per Carry	2.69	99	2.51	18	Florida big
SD Sack Rate	2.6%	22	6.5%	21

Passing Downs

	Michigan Offense		Florida Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	132.2	10	158.7	2
Passing Downs Success Rate	36.4	22	20.4	3	Florida
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.88	37	1.72	36
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.68	24	2.58	13	Florida
PD Sack Rate	5.9%	39	13.8%	3	Florida

When Florida has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Florida Offense		Michigan Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	104.8	50	117.0	14	Michigan
Standard Downs Success Rate	45.7	82	40.2	12	Michigan big
Standard Downs IsoPPP	0.97	119	1.09	66	Michigan big
SD Line Yards per Carry	2.71	95	2.90	70	Michigan
SD Sack Rate	10%	124	6%	34	Michigan big

Passing Downs

	Florida Offense		Michigan Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	103.6	57	124.2	13	Michigan
Passing Downs Success Rate	24.6	112	24.0	12	Michigan big
Passing Downs IsoPPP	2.07	9	1.66	55	Florida
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.21	68	1.95	2	Michigan big
PD Sack Rate	11.8%	119	9.3%	28	Michigan big

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Michigan	Jake Rudock	6'3, 208	SR	229	358	2739	17	9	64.0%	17	4.5%	7.1
Michigan	Wilton Speight	6'6, 235	SO	9	25	73	1	1	36.0%	0	0.0%	2.9
Michigan
Florida	Treon Harris	5'11, 195	SO	111	214	1530	9	5	51.9%	29	11.9%	5.5
Florida	Will Grier	6'2, 201	FR	106	161	1204	10	3	65.8%	13	7.5%	6.6
Florida	Josh Grady	6'0, 200	SR	1	1	3	0	0	100.0%	0	0.0%	3.0

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
Michigan	De'Veon Smith	RB	5'11, 228	JR	156	646	6	4.1	4.4	30.8%
Michigan	Drake Johnson	RB	6'1, 207	SR	48	213	3	4.4	3.6	37.5%
Michigan	Derrick Green	RB	5'11, 234	JR	47	157	2	3.3	1.8	27.7%
Michigan	Jake Rudock	QB	6'3, 208	SR	37	225	4	6.1	4.9	40.5%
Florida	Kelvin Taylor	RB	5'10, 205	JR	248	985	13	4.0	4.4	29.4%
Florida	Treon Harris	QB	5'11, 195	SO	56	377	0	6.7	5.1	50.0%
Florida	Jordan Cronkrite	RB	5'11, 205	FR	41	140	3	3.4	3.0	31.7%
Florida	Jordan Scarlett	RB	5'10, 198	FR	34	181	1	5.3	7.5	35.3%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
Michigan	Amara Darboh	WR	6'2, 216	SR	93	56	703	5	12.6	7.6	60.2%
Michigan	Jehu Chesson	WR	6'3, 207	SR	73	45	646	8	14.4	8.9	61.6%
Michigan	Jake Butt	TE	6'6, 248	JR	71	48	620	3	12.9	8.7	67.6%
Michigan	De'Veon Smith	RB	5'11, 228	JR	25	18	159	1	8.8	6.4	72.0%
Michigan	Grant Perry	WR	6'0, 185	FR	20	9	77	0	8.6	3.9	45.0%
Michigan	A.J. Williams	TE	6'6, 285	SR	15	12	129	0	10.8	8.6	80.0%
Michigan	Drake Johnson	RB	6'1, 207	SR	11	4	86	1	21.5	7.8	36.4%
Florida	Demarcus Robinson	WR	6'1, 204	JR	73	47	505	2	10.7	6.9	64.4%
Florida	Antonio Callaway	WR	5'11, 198	FR	68	30	603	4	20.1	8.9	44.1%
Florida	Jake McGee	TE	6'6, 249	SR	66	41	381	4	9.3	5.8	62.1%
Florida	Brandon Powell	WR	5'9, 184	SO	43	28	364	3	13.0	8.5	65.1%
Florida	Kelvin Taylor	RB	5'10, 205	JR	24	17	150	0	8.8	6.3	70.8%
Florida	DeAndre Goolsby	TE	6'4, 243	SO	22	17	277	1	16.3	12.6	77.3%
Florida	Valdez Showers	WR	6'0, 193	SR	13	6	64	0	10.7	4.9	46.2%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Michigan	Joe Bolden	LB	6'3, 232	SR	53.5	9.3%	6.0	0.0	0	0	0	1
Michigan	Desmond Morgan	LB	6'1, 236	SR	51.0	8.9%	2.0	1.0	1	3	1	0
Michigan	Jarrod Wilson	S	6'2, 210	SR	48.0	8.3%	1.0	1.0	1	3	0	0
Michigan	Jourdan Lewis	CB	5'10, 176	JR	42.0	7.3%	3.5	1.0	2	19	1	0
Michigan	Jabrill Peppers	S	6'1, 205	SO	39.5	6.9%	5.5	0.0	0	10	0	0
Michigan	Delano Hill	S	6'0, 204	JR	36.5	6.3%	2.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Michigan	Chris Wormley	DE	6'5, 300	SR	31.0	5.4%	12.0	5.5	0	1	1	0
Michigan	James Ross	LB	6'1, 232	SR	27.0	4.7%	5.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Michigan	Taco Charlton	DE	6'6, 273	JR	25.5	4.4%	8.5	5.5	0	0	1	0
Michigan	Royce Jenkins-Stone	LB	6'2, 240	SR	25.5	4.4%	5.0	2.0	0	0	1	0
Michigan	Maurice Hurst	DT	6'2, 281	JR	24.0	4.2%	6.5	3.0	0	0	0	0
Michigan	Willie Henry	DT	6'3, 311	SR	23.5	4.1%	10.0	6.5	0	2	0	0
Michigan	Ben Gedeon	LB	6'3, 241	JR	23.5	4.1%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Florida	Jarrad Davis	LB	6'2, 230	JR	70.0	10.5%	11.0	3.5	1	4	1	0
Florida	Antonio Morrison	LB	6'1, 229	SR	69.0	10.4%	12.0	2.5	0	1	1	0
Florida	Keanu Neal	DB	6'1, 216	JR	64.5	9.7%	3.5	2.0	1	1	1	0
Florida	Marcus Maye	DB	6'0, 207	JR	56.5	8.5%	1.5	0.0	2	6	4	0
Florida	Jonathan Bullard	DL	6'3, 283	SR	49.5	7.4%	17.5	6.5	0	2	0	0
Florida	Bryan Cox, Jr.	DL	6'3, 268	JR	30.5	4.6%	10.5	3.5	0	1	2	1
Florida	Brian Poole	DB	5'10, 211	SR	28.5	4.3%	3.5	0.5	0	10	0	0
Florida	Vernon Hargreaves, III	DB	5'11, 199	JR	26.5	4.0%	1.0	0.0	4	4	1	0
Florida	Jalen Tabor	DB	6'0, 191	SO	24.5	3.7%	3.0	1.0	4	14	0	0
Florida	Cece Jefferson	DL	6'1, 275	FR	22.5	3.4%	8.5	3.5	0	1	1	1
Florida	Joey Ivie	DL	6'3, 295	JR	20.0	3.0%	4.0	3.5	0	0	1	0
Florida	Alex McCalister	DL	6'6, 239	JR	19.5	2.9%	9.5	6.5	0	1	1	2
Florida	Quincy Wilson	DB	6'1, 209	SO	19.5	2.9%	0.0	0.0	2	5	0	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Michigan	Blake O'Neill	6'2, 215	SR	53	41.3	4	14	23	69.8%
Florida	Johnny Townsend	6'1, 202	SO	79	44.9	4	26	23	62.0%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
Michigan	Kenny Allen	6'3, 220	SR	70	61.1	33	47.1%	0	2	0	0
Florida	Austin Hardin	5'10, 198	JR	44	64.2	29	65.9%	0	2	0	0
Florida	Jorge Powell	5'10, 166	FR	18	62.8	6	33.3%	0	1	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
Michigan	Kenny Allen	6'3, 220	SR	41-41	16-20	80.0%
Florida	Austin Hardin	5'10, 198	JR	24-27	5-14	35.7%
Florida	Jorge Powell	5'10, 166	FR	10-11	2-3	66.7%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Michigan	Jourdan Lewis	5'10, 176	JR	15	25.2	0	0	1 (0)
Michigan	Jabrill Peppers	6'1, 205	SO	8	27.9	0	0	2 (0)
Florida	Brandon Powell	5'9, 184	SO	22	21.5	0	0	2 (0)
Florida	Valdez Showers	6'0, 193	SR	2	11.0	0	0	0 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Michigan	Jabrill Peppers	6'1, 205	SO	17	11.4	0	25	1 (0)
Florida	Antonio Callaway	5'11, 198	FR	28	15.5	2	14	1 (0)
Florida	Vernon Hargreaves, III	5'11, 199	JR	2	5.5	0	10	0 (0)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}