2016 Fiesta Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

Battlefrog Fiesta Bowl

No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2) vs. No. 7 Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1)

January 01 ( 1:00 PM ET, ESPN ), University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale

Spread: Ohio State -6.5

S&P+ Projection: Ohio State 32.4, Notre Dame 28.0

Team Sites: One Foot Down, Land-Grant Holy Land

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.}

_{Statistical profiles index.}

_{Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	Notre Dame		Ohio State
S&P+ (Rk)	8		4
Category	Notre Dame offense	Ohio State defense	Ohio State offense	Notre Dame defense
Yards per play (Rk)	6.90 (4)	4.26 (5)	6.13 (27)	5.38 (74)
Yards per game (Rk)	474.7 (22)	304.3 (10)	424.3 (43)	365.9 (42)
Points per possession (Rk)	2.86 (17)	1.06 (3)	2.63 (33)	1.81 (45)
Category	Notre Dame offense	Ohio State defense	Ohio State offense	Notre Dame defense
S&P+ (Rk)	42.7 (6)	15.6 (8)	39.4 (14)	23.3 (33)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	128.7 (3)	118.1 (17)	124.7 (8)	105.1 (51)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	130.9 (8)	137.2 (4)	118.5 (26)	109.1 (36)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	120.6 (10)	121.3 (8)	121.2 (9)	103.7 (50)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	153.2 (3)	138.6 (5)	119.6 (26)	113.4 (28)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	124.1 (14)	121.2 (19)	112.0 (41)	106.2 (41)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	118.5 (25)	134.2 (6)	122.0 (19)	112.0 (32)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	155.4 (1)	138.9 (7)	130.5 (6)	114.5 (28)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	136.1 (1)	124.0 (9)	126.6 (5)	97.5 (74)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

Notre Dame

1. Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 5 offense vs. No. 37 defense)
2. Third Down S&P+ (No. 22 defense vs. No. 49 offense)
3. Adj. Line Yards (No. 4 offense vs. No. 31 defense)
4. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 41 defense vs. No. 63 offense)
5. Run Stuffs (No. 27 defense vs. No. 47 offense)

Ohio State

1. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 3 defense vs. No. 86 offense)
2. Field Position (No. 3 defense vs. No. 81 offense)
3. First Down S&P+ (No. 3 offense vs. No. 63 defense)
4. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 19 offense vs. No. 71 defense)
5. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 13 offense vs. No. 65 defense)

Five Factors

Category	Notre Dame offense	Ohio State defense	Ohio State offense	Notre Dame defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.44 (5)	1.22 (51)	1.27 (58)	1.32 (94)
EFFICIENCY	45.8% (25)	33.0% (6)	47.9% (16)	38.3% (38)
FIELD POSITION	29.4 (81)	25.1 (3)	34.4 (3)	25.9 (6)
FINISHING DRIVES	5.1 (36)	3.7 (7)	5.2 (29)	4.3 (34)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: Notre Dame -0.50 (75) Ohio State -0.35 (74)		ACTUAL Notre Dame -5 (97) Ohio State 2 (52)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Notre Dame offense	Ohio State offense
Adj. Pace	-4.8 (109)	-2.8 (86)
Plays per game	68.8 (104)	69.2 (100)
Possessions per game	12.2 (116)	13.3 (47)
Std. Downs Run Rate	57.2% (80)	65.7% (29)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	37.0% (39)	44.3% (15)
% of solo tackles	72.5% (83)	68.3% (108)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Notre Dame defense	Ohio State defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	65.3% (21)	63.3% (35)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	36.3% (42)	34.1% (63)
Overall Havoc Rate	16.1% (56)	16.9% (46)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	10.3% (46)	12.2% (16)
DB Havoc Rate	5.8% (81)	4.6% (114)
PD to INC	26.5% (116)	28.7% (97)

When Notre Dame has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Notre Dame Offense		Ohio State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	120.6	10	121.3	8
Standard Downs Success Rate	48.3	42	38.5	8	Ohio State
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.22	22	1.13	55	Notre Dame
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.06	39	2.57	26	Ohio State
SD Sack Rate	6%	86	9.4%	3	Ohio State big

Passing Downs

	Notre Dame Offense		Ohio State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	153.2	3	138.6	5
Passing Downs Success Rate	39.8	8	23.3	10
Passing Downs IsoPPP	2.09	5	1.98	27	Notre Dame
PD Line Yards per Carry	4.02	8	3.01	48	Notre Dame
PD Sack Rate	6.8%	56	7.3%	65

When Ohio State has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Ohio State Offense		Notre Dame Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	121.2	9	103.7	50	Ohio State
Standard Downs Success Rate	53.6	12	45.3	55	Ohio State
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.14	47	1.08	78	Ohio State
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.39	8	2.77	47	Ohio State
SD Sack Rate	4.8%	63	5.7%	41	Notre Dame

Passing Downs

	Ohio State Offense		Notre Dame Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	119.6	26	113.4	28
Passing Downs Success Rate	33.0	43	24.9	18	Notre Dame
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.85	44	1.62	118	Ohio State big
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.55	34	2.44	9	Notre Dame
PD Sack Rate	7.8%	74	7.3%	65

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Notre Dame	DeShone Kizer	6'4, 230	SO	188	297	2596	19	9	63.3%	19	6.0%	7.9
Notre Dame	Malik Zaire	6'0, 222	JR	26	40	428	4	0	65.0%	2	4.8%	9.8
Notre Dame	Brandon Wimbush	6'1, 216	FR	3	5	17	0	0	60.0%	1	16.7%	0.8
Ohio State	Cardale Jones	6'5, 250	JR	110	176	1460	8	5	62.5%	13	6.9%	7.4
Ohio State	J.T. Barrett	6'2, 225	SO	74	116	781	10	3	63.8%	4	3.3%	6.3
Ohio State	Braxton Miller	6'2, 215	SR	1	1	3	0	0	100.0%	0	0.0%	3.0

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
Notre Dame	C.J. Prosise	RB	6'1, 220	SR	160	1048	11	6.6	6.9	48.1%
Notre Dame	Josh Adams	RB	6'1, 212	FR	102	760	5	7.5	8.5	46.1%
Notre Dame	DeShone Kizer	QB	6'4, 230	SO	102	611	9	6.0	5.6	46.1%
Notre Dame	Dexter Williams	RB	5'11, 200	FR	19	79	1	4.2	2.0	42.1%
Ohio State	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	6'0, 225	JR	262	1672	19	6.4	6.2	44.3%
Ohio State	J.T. Barrett	QB	6'2, 225	SO	88	607	11	6.9	5.5	53.4%
Ohio State	Cardale Jones	QB	6'5, 250	JR	51	262	2	5.1	6.9	41.2%
Ohio State	Braxton Miller	QB	6'2, 215	SR	40	234	1	5.9	5.9	47.5%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
Notre Dame	Will Fuller	WR	6'0, 184	JR	87	56	1145	13	20.5	13.2	64.4%
Notre Dame	Chris Brown	WR	6'1, 195	SR	70	44	562	3	12.8	8.0	62.9%
Notre Dame	Amir Carlisle	WR	5'10, 195	SR	40	29	337	1	11.6	8.4	72.5%
Notre Dame	C.J. Prosise	RB	6'1, 220	SR	35	27	325	1	12.0	9.3	77.1%
Notre Dame	Torii Hunter Jr.	WR	6'0, 195	JR	35	24	311	2	13.0	8.9	68.6%
Notre Dame	Corey Robinson	WR	6'4, 215	JR	25	13	159	1	12.2	6.4	52.0%
Notre Dame	Alizé Jones	TE	6'4, 240	FR	15	11	166	0	15.1	11.1	73.3%
Ohio State	Michael Thomas	WR	6'3, 210	JR	74	49	709	8	14.5	9.6	66.2%
Ohio State	Jalin Marshall	HB	5'11, 205	SO	51	31	448	5	14.5	8.8	60.8%
Ohio State	Braxton Miller	QB	6'2, 215	SR	36	24	329	3	13.7	9.1	66.7%
Ohio State	Curtis Samuel	RB	5'11, 200	SO	32	20	262	2	13.1	8.2	62.5%
Ohio State	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	6'0, 225	JR	27	26	176	0	6.8	6.5	96.3%
Ohio State	Nick Vannett	TE	6'6, 260	SR	25	18	148	0	8.2	5.9	72.0%
Ohio State	Dontre Wilson	HB	5'10, 195	JR	11	7	63	0	9.0	5.7	63.6%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Notre Dame	Jaylon Smith	LB	6'2, 240	JR	90.5	14.4%	9.0	1.0	0	5	1	1
Notre Dame	KeiVarae Russell	CB	5'11, 196	SR	54.0	8.6%	3.5	1.0	2	4	2	0
Notre Dame	Max Redfield	S	6'1, 205	JR	51.5	8.2%	2.0	1.0	1	2	0	0
Notre Dame	Elijah Shumate	S	6'0, 224	SR	50.0	8.0%	6.5	0.0	1	2	0	0
Notre Dame	Joe Schmidt	LB	6'1, 235	SR	48.5	7.7%	3.0	1.0	0	3	0	0
Notre Dame	Isaac Rochell	DL	6'3, 287	JR	43.0	6.8%	7.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Notre Dame	Romeo Okwara	DL	6'4, 270	SR	36.5	5.8%	13.5	9.0	0	0	1	0
Notre Dame	Sheldon Day	DL	6'2, 285	SR	35.0	5.6%	14.5	4.0	0	2	1	0
Notre Dame	Cole Luke	CB	5'11, 193	JR	29.0	4.6%	1.0	0.0	2	4	0	0
Notre Dame	James Onwualu	LB	6'1, 232	JR	27.5	4.4%	5.0	2.0	0	2	1	0
Notre Dame	Greer Martini	LB	6'2, 245	SO	27.0	4.3%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Notre Dame	Matthias Farley	CB	5'11, 210	SR	26.5	4.2%	0.0	0.0	1	1	1	0
Notre Dame	Nyles Morgan	LB	6'1, 240	SO	13.0	2.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Ohio State	Raekwon McMillan	LB	6'2, 240	SO	83.5	13.0%	4.0	1.5	0	4	0	0
Ohio State	Joshua Perry	LB	6'4, 254	SR	73.5	11.5%	7.5	3.5	0	3	0	0
Ohio State	Vonn Bell	S	5'11, 205	JR	52.0	8.1%	1.0	0.0	2	9	0	1
Ohio State	Tyvis Powell	S	6'3, 210	JR	51.5	8.0%	0.5	0.0	2	3	0	0
Ohio State	Darron Lee	LB	6'2, 235	SO	44.0	6.9%	9.0	2.5	1	2	1	0
Ohio State	Tyquan Lewis	DL	6'4, 260	SO	41.5	6.5%	13.0	7.0	0	1	0	0
Ohio State	Joey Bosa	DE	6'6, 275	JR	40.0	6.3%	16.0	5.0	1	4	1	0
Ohio State	Adolphus Washington	DL	6'4, 290	SR	36.0	5.6%	7.0	4.0	1	1	1	0
Ohio State	Gareon Conley	CB	6'0, 195	SO	34.0	5.3%	1.0	0.5	2	4	0	0
Ohio State	Eli Apple	CB	6'1, 200	SO	23.5	3.7%	2.0	0.0	1	7	0	1
Ohio State	Sam Hubbard	DE	6'5, 265	FR	18.5	2.9%	7.0	5.5	1	1	1	0
Ohio State	Dante Booker	LB	6'3, 233	SO	17.0	2.7%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ohio State	Tommy Schutt	DL	6'3, 290	SR	16.0	2.5%	5.0	2.5	0	0	1	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Notre Dame	Tyler Newsome	6'2, 205	SO	49	44.0	7	7	18	51.0%
Notre Dame	DeShone Kizer	6'4, 230	SO	2	40.5	0	0	2	100.0%
Ohio State	Cameron Johnston	5'11, 195	JR	55	44.1	7	20	20	72.7%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
Notre Dame	Tyler Newsome	6'2, 205	SO	79	61.5	19	24.1%	0	5	0	0
Notre Dame	Justin Yoon	5'9, 185	FR	0	0.0	0	0.0%	0	0	1	0
Ohio State	Jack Willoughby	6'2, 210	SR	76	60.5	25	32.9%	0	5	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
Notre Dame	Justin Yoon	5'9, 185	FR	46-48	15-17	88.2%
Ohio State	Jack Willoughby	6'2, 210	SR	45-45	7-11	63.6%
Ohio State	Sean Nuernberger	6'1, 220	SO	12-12	0-1	0.0%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Notre Dame	C.J. Sanders	5'8, 185	FR	23	25.2	1	0	1 (1)
Notre Dame	Amir Carlisle	5'10, 195	SR	8	19.5	0	0	0 (0)
Ohio State	Curtis Samuel	5'11, 200	SO	7	22.1	0	0	0 (0)
Ohio State	Dontre Wilson	5'10, 195	JR	7	23.9	0	0	0 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Notre Dame	C.J. Sanders	5'8, 185	FR	25	7.3	1	18	3 (0)
Notre Dame	Will Fuller	6'0, 184	JR	1	10.0	0	1	0 (0)
Ohio State	Jalin Marshall	5'11, 205	SO	24	12.8	0	8	0 (0)
Ohio State	Ezekiel Elliott	6'0, 225	JR	2	6.5	0	2	1 (1)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}