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2016 Rose Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Iowa vs. Stanford

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Rose Bowl Game Pres. By Northwestern Mutual

No. 6 Stanford Cardinal (11-2) vs. No. 5 Iowa Hawkeyes (12-1)

January 01 ( 5:00 PM ET, ESPN ), Rose Bowl, Pasadena
Spread: Stanford -7
S&P+ Projection: Stanford 33.3, Iowa 27.2
Team Sites: Rule Of Tree, Black Heart Gold Pants

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Statistical profiles index.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Stanford Iowa
S&P+ (Rk) 12 34
Category Stanford offense Iowa defense Iowa offense Stanford defense
Yards per play (Rk) 6.26 (19) 4.56 (14) 5.75 (40) 5.35 (71)
Yards per game (Rk) 438.8 (38) 332.6 (18) 398.0 (67) 367.0 (46)
Points per possession (Rk) 3.29 (4) 1.51 (19) 2.57 (39) 2.03 (63)
Category Stanford offense Iowa defense Iowa offense Stanford defense
S&P+ (Rk) 42.1 (7) 21.4 (26) 31.3 (48) 26.1 (54)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 114.5 (21) 116.1 (22) 108.0 (44) 101.7 (65)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 132.0 (7) 105.9 (46) 108.2 (43) 102.5 (57)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 117.8 (16) 112.0 (28) 100.6 (69) 101.3 (59)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 123.2 (17) 107.5 (49) 122.4 (19) 109.2 (40)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 108.6 (48) 117.3 (29) 103.8 (65) 95.4 (83)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 123.6 (15) 106.1 (59) 120.6 (20) 111.4 (37)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 137.3 (2) 107.9 (43) 95.2 (90) 107.4 (48)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 115.0 (22) 103.9 (55) 111.4 (32) 105.0 (51)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Stanford

  1. Run Stuffs (No. 19 offense vs. No. 104 defense)
  2. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 6 offense vs. No. 68 defense)
  3. Q3 S&P+ (No. 13 vs. No. 73 )
  4. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 39 offense vs. No. 89 defense)
  5. First Down S&P+ (No. 14 offense vs. No. 62 defense)

Iowa

  1. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 24 defense vs. No. 100 offense)
  2. Redzone S&P+ (No. 32 offense vs. No. 82 defense)
  3. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 65 offense vs. No. 114 defense)
  4. Run Stuffs (No. 31 offense vs. No. 80 defense)
  5. Adj. Line Yards (No. 47 offense vs. No. 84 defense)
Five Factors
Category Stanford offense Iowa defense Iowa offense Stanford defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.21 (92) 1.09 (5) 1.28 (56) 1.27 (75)
EFFICIENCY 51.3% (2) 38.0% (35) 42.9% (53) 42.0% (72)
FIELD POSITION 32.9 (15) 27.0 (13) 32.1 (27) 25.0 (1)
FINISHING DRIVES 5.6 (4) 4.1 (28) 5.1 (33) 4.5 (49)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Stanford 3.53 (36)
Iowa 8.37 (10)
ACTUAL
Stanford 0 (65)
Iowa 12 (9)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Stanford offense Iowa offense
Adj. Pace -2.5 (81) -3.8 (98)
Plays per game 70.1 (94) 69.2 (99)
Possessions per game 11.3 (126) 12.5 (102)
Std. Downs Run Rate 70.6% (15) 68.9% (18)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 34.1% (54) 27.4% (97)
% of solo tackles 69.9% (102) 71.3% (93)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Stanford defense Iowa defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 56.8% (101) 53.7% (118)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 29.9% (103) 30.4% (98)
Overall Havoc Rate 15.7% (67) 15.6% (76)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 10.1% (51) 9.3% (69)
DB Havoc Rate 5.6% (89) 6.0% (75)
PD to INC 28.9% (96) 33.8% (55)

When Stanford has the ball…

Standard Downs
Stanford Offense Iowa Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 117.8 16 112.0 28 Stanford
Standard Downs Success Rate 55.7 4 42.6 34 Stanford
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.08 77 1.15 5 Iowa big
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.08 36 2.90 70 Stanford
SD Sack Rate 3.6% 39 4.4% 89 Stanford
Passing Downs
Stanford Offense Iowa Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 123.2 17 107.5 49 Stanford
Passing Downs Success Rate 37.8 15 28.5 45 Stanford
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.77 64 1.71 13 Iowa big
PD Line Yards per Carry 4.51 2 3.41 83 Stanford big
PD Sack Rate 9.8% 100 9.8% 24 Iowa big

When Iowa has the ball…

Standard Downs
Iowa Offense Stanford Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 100.6 69 101.3 59 Stanford
Standard Downs Success Rate 45.2 89 46.1 62 Stanford
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.08 80 0.95 89
SD Line Yards per Carry 2.78 82 3.14 99 Iowa
SD Sack Rate 7.2% 105 1.9% 124 Iowa
Passing Downs
Iowa Offense Stanford Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 122.4 19 109.2 40 Iowa
Passing Downs Success Rate 37.2 18 32.0 83 Iowa big
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.88 35 1.53 51 Iowa
PD Line Yards per Carry 4.10 6 3.55 99 Iowa big
PD Sack Rate 5.9% 39 7.4% 61 Iowa
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Stanford Kevin Hogan 6'4, 218 SR 194 283 2644 24 7 68.6% 18 6.0% 8.5
Stanford Keller Chryst 6'5, 233 SO 5 9 59 1 0 55.6% 1 10.0% 5.0
Stanford
Iowa C.J. Beathard 6'2, 209 JR 202 329 2570 15 4 61.4% 22 6.3% 6.9
Iowa Tyler Wiegers 6'4, 222 FR 3 4 32 0 0 75.0% 1 20.0% 4.8
Iowa
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Stanford Christian McCaffrey RB 6'0, 201 SO 319 1847 8 5.8 4.6 46.4%
Stanford Remound Wright RB 5'9, 205 SR 77 209 13 2.7 2.7 16.9%
Stanford Kevin Hogan QB 6'4, 218 SR 61 404 5 6.6 5.8 52.5%
Stanford Barry Sanders RB 5'10, 198 SR 49 313 4 6.4 9.5 32.7%
Iowa Jordan Canzeri RB 5'9, 192 SR 178 976 12 5.5 6.5 35.4%
Iowa LeShun Daniels, Jr. RB 6'0, 225 JR 135 609 8 4.5 5.2 28.9%
Iowa Akrum Wadley RB 5'11, 185 SO 74 463 7 6.3 7.1 39.2%
Iowa C.J. Beathard QB 6'2, 209 JR 66 430 6 6.5 5.9 47.0%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Stanford Michael Rector WR 6'1, 189 SR 51 32 486 5 15.2 9.5 62.7%
Stanford Austin Hooper TE 6'4, 248 JR 50 31 415 6 13.4 8.3 62.0%
Stanford Christian McCaffrey RB 6'0, 201 SO 49 41 548 4 13.4 11.2 83.7%
Stanford Devon Cajuste WR 6'4, 227 SR 38 26 375 3 14.4 9.9 68.4%
Stanford Francis Owusu WR 6'3, 212 JR 18 13 175 1 13.5 9.7 72.2%
Stanford Trenton Irwin WR 6'2, 199 FR 16 11 138 0 12.6 8.6 68.8%
Stanford Bryce Love RB 5'10, 184 FR 15 14 240 1 17.1 16.0 93.3%
Iowa Matt VandeBerg WR 6'1, 185 JR 89 61 636 2 10.4 7.2 68.5%
Iowa Tevaun Smith WR 6'2, 205 SR 57 30 546 3 18.2 9.6 52.6%
Iowa Henry Krieger Coble TE 6'4, 250 SR 45 33 420 3 12.7 9.3 73.3%
Iowa Jacob Hillyer WR 6'4, 212 SR 29 14 196 0 14.0 6.8 48.3%
Iowa Jordan Canzeri RB 5'9, 192 SR 26 18 196 1 10.9 7.5 69.2%
Iowa George Kittle TE 6'4, 235 JR 23 20 290 6 14.5 12.6 87.0%
Iowa Jerminic Smith WR 6'1, 180 FR 18 6 141 0 23.5 7.8 33.3%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Stanford Blake Martinez ILB 6'2, 245 SR 100.5 15.4% 6.0 1.0 1 5 1 0
Stanford Dallas Lloyd SS 6'3, 207 SR 41.5 6.4% 0.5 0.0 1 2 1 0
Stanford Peter Kalambayi OLB 6'3, 242 JR 39.0 6.0% 4.5 3.5 0 2 1 0
Stanford Alameen Murphy CB 5'11, 192 SO 37.0 5.7% 0.5 0.0 0 1 0 0
Stanford Kodi Whitfield SS 6'2, 202 SR 34.5 5.3% 2.5 1.0 1 2 1 0
Stanford Aziz Shittu DE 6'3, 279 SR 33.5 5.1% 10.5 2.5 0 3 0 0
Stanford Kevin Anderson OLB 6'4, 244 SR 30.5 4.7% 8.5 2.0 0 0 0 1
Stanford Joey Alfieri OLB 6'3, 240 SO 30.5 4.7% 7.0 3.5 0 0 0 0
Stanford Ronnie Harris CB 5'10, 172 SR 30.5 4.7% 1.0 0.0 0 10 0 0
Stanford Alijah Holder CB 6'2, 184 SO 29.5 4.5% 1.0 0.0 1 7 0 0
Stanford Solomon Thomas DE 6'3, 271 SO 28.0 4.3% 8.5 2.5 0 0 0 1
Stanford Quenton Meeks CB 6'2, 195 FR 28.0 4.3% 1.5 0.0 2 4 0 0
Stanford Kevin Palma ILB 6'2, 252 JR 27.5 4.2% 0.5 0.0 0 0 0 0
Iowa Josey Jewell OLB 6'2, 230 SO 88.5 13.2% 7.5 2.5 3 6 1 0
Iowa Cole Fisher OLB 6'2, 236 SR 84.0 12.6% 4.5 2.5 1 6 1 0
Iowa Jordan Lomax DB 5'10, 205 SR 68.0 10.2% 1.0 0.0 1 6 1 0
Iowa Desmond King DB 5'11, 200 JR 55.0 8.2% 1.0 0.0 8 12 0 0
Iowa Nate Meier DE 6'2, 252 SR 51.5 7.7% 10.5 6.5 0 1 1 0
Iowa Miles Taylor DB 6'0, 195 SO 46.5 7.0% 1.5 0.5 1 3 0 0
Iowa Greg Mabin DB 6'2, 200 JR 45.0 6.7% 0.5 0.0 2 8 1 0
Iowa Ben Niemann LB 6'3, 225 SO 32.5 4.9% 6.5 3.0 0 2 0 0
Iowa Parker Hesse LB 6'3, 240 FR 32.0 4.8% 3.0 2.0 1 1 1 0
Iowa Jaleel Johnson DL 6'4, 310 JR 31.5 4.7% 5.5 3.5 0 1 0 0
Iowa Nathan Bazata DL 6'2, 284 SO 27.0 4.0% 5.0 2.0 0 1 0 0
Iowa Maurice Fleming DB 6'0, 205 JR 12.5 1.9% 0.0 0.0 0 5 0 0
Iowa Matt Nelson DE 6'8, 270 FR 10.0 1.5% 0.0 0.0 0 0 1 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Stanford Alex Robinson 6'0, 207 JR 35 42.9 2 10 11 60.0%
Stanford Jake Bailey 6'2, 186 FR 10 34.7 2 0 7 70.0%
Iowa Dillon Kidd 6'2, 215 SR 53 40.4 4 19 20 73.6%
Iowa Marshall Koehn 6'0, 200 SR 8 40.9 0 0 3 37.5%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Stanford Jake Bailey 6'2, 186 FR 65 61.8 11 16.9% 0 6 0 0
Stanford Conrad Ukropina 6'1, 193 SR 23 60.8 6 26.1% 0 0 1 0
Iowa Marshall Koehn 6'0, 200 SR 78 63.5 46 59.0% 0 0 0 0
Iowa Miguel Recinos 6'1, 180 FR 2 61.5 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Stanford Conrad Ukropina 6'1, 193 SR 61-61 17-19 89.5%
Iowa Marshall Koehn 6'0, 200 SR 46-51 15-19 78.9%
Iowa Miguel Recinos 6'1, 180 FR 2-2 0-0 #DIV/0!
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Stanford Christian McCaffrey 6'0, 201 SO 36 28.9 1 0 0 (0)
Stanford Dalton Schultz 6'6, 233 SO 4 13.0 0 1 0 (0)
Iowa Desmond King 5'11, 200 JR 22 25.6 0 0 0 (0)
Iowa Riley McCarron 5'9, 186 JR 3 21.0 0 0 1 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Stanford Christian McCaffrey 6'0, 201 SO 14 4.8 0 21 0 (0)
Stanford Barry Sanders 5'10, 198 SR 2 12.0 0 3 0 (0)
Iowa Desmond King 5'11, 200 JR 16 12.7 0 24 1 (1)
Iowa Riley McCarron 5'9, 186 JR 1 10.0 0 3 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics