2016 Rose Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Iowa vs. Stanford

Rose Bowl Game Pres. By Northwestern Mutual

No. 6 Stanford Cardinal (11-2) vs. No. 5 Iowa Hawkeyes (12-1)

January 01 ( 5:00 PM ET, ESPN ), Rose Bowl, Pasadena

Spread: Stanford -7

S&P+ Projection: Stanford 33.3, Iowa 27.2

Team Sites: Rule Of Tree, Black Heart Gold Pants

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.}

_{Statistical profiles index.}

_{Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	Stanford		Iowa
S&P+ (Rk)	12		34
Category	Stanford offense	Iowa defense	Iowa offense	Stanford defense
Yards per play (Rk)	6.26 (19)	4.56 (14)	5.75 (40)	5.35 (71)
Yards per game (Rk)	438.8 (38)	332.6 (18)	398.0 (67)	367.0 (46)
Points per possession (Rk)	3.29 (4)	1.51 (19)	2.57 (39)	2.03 (63)
Category	Stanford offense	Iowa defense	Iowa offense	Stanford defense
S&P+ (Rk)	42.1 (7)	21.4 (26)	31.3 (48)	26.1 (54)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	114.5 (21)	116.1 (22)	108.0 (44)	101.7 (65)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	132.0 (7)	105.9 (46)	108.2 (43)	102.5 (57)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	117.8 (16)	112.0 (28)	100.6 (69)	101.3 (59)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	123.2 (17)	107.5 (49)	122.4 (19)	109.2 (40)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	108.6 (48)	117.3 (29)	103.8 (65)	95.4 (83)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	123.6 (15)	106.1 (59)	120.6 (20)	111.4 (37)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	137.3 (2)	107.9 (43)	95.2 (90)	107.4 (48)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	115.0 (22)	103.9 (55)	111.4 (32)	105.0 (51)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

Stanford

1. Run Stuffs (No. 19 offense vs. No. 104 defense)
2. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 6 offense vs. No. 68 defense)
3. Q3 S&P+ (No. 13 vs. No. 73 )
4. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 39 offense vs. No. 89 defense)
5. First Down S&P+ (No. 14 offense vs. No. 62 defense)

Iowa

1. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 24 defense vs. No. 100 offense)
2. Redzone S&P+ (No. 32 offense vs. No. 82 defense)
3. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 65 offense vs. No. 114 defense)
4. Run Stuffs (No. 31 offense vs. No. 80 defense)
5. Adj. Line Yards (No. 47 offense vs. No. 84 defense)

Five Factors

Category	Stanford offense	Iowa defense	Iowa offense	Stanford defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.21 (92)	1.09 (5)	1.28 (56)	1.27 (75)
EFFICIENCY	51.3% (2)	38.0% (35)	42.9% (53)	42.0% (72)
FIELD POSITION	32.9 (15)	27.0 (13)	32.1 (27)	25.0 (1)
FINISHING DRIVES	5.6 (4)	4.1 (28)	5.1 (33)	4.5 (49)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: Stanford 3.53 (36) Iowa 8.37 (10)		ACTUAL Stanford 0 (65) Iowa 12 (9)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Stanford offense	Iowa offense
Adj. Pace	-2.5 (81)	-3.8 (98)
Plays per game	70.1 (94)	69.2 (99)
Possessions per game	11.3 (126)	12.5 (102)
Std. Downs Run Rate	70.6% (15)	68.9% (18)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	34.1% (54)	27.4% (97)
% of solo tackles	69.9% (102)	71.3% (93)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Stanford defense	Iowa defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	56.8% (101)	53.7% (118)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	29.9% (103)	30.4% (98)
Overall Havoc Rate	15.7% (67)	15.6% (76)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	10.1% (51)	9.3% (69)
DB Havoc Rate	5.6% (89)	6.0% (75)
PD to INC	28.9% (96)	33.8% (55)

When Stanford has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Stanford Offense		Iowa Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	117.8	16	112.0	28	Stanford
Standard Downs Success Rate	55.7	4	42.6	34	Stanford
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.08	77	1.15	5	Iowa big
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.08	36	2.90	70	Stanford
SD Sack Rate	3.6%	39	4.4%	89	Stanford

Passing Downs

	Stanford Offense		Iowa Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	123.2	17	107.5	49	Stanford
Passing Downs Success Rate	37.8	15	28.5	45	Stanford
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.77	64	1.71	13	Iowa big
PD Line Yards per Carry	4.51	2	3.41	83	Stanford big
PD Sack Rate	9.8%	100	9.8%	24	Iowa big

When Iowa has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Iowa Offense		Stanford Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	100.6	69	101.3	59	Stanford
Standard Downs Success Rate	45.2	89	46.1	62	Stanford
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.08	80	0.95	89
SD Line Yards per Carry	2.78	82	3.14	99	Iowa
SD Sack Rate	7.2%	105	1.9%	124	Iowa

Passing Downs

	Iowa Offense		Stanford Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	122.4	19	109.2	40	Iowa
Passing Downs Success Rate	37.2	18	32.0	83	Iowa big
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.88	35	1.53	51	Iowa
PD Line Yards per Carry	4.10	6	3.55	99	Iowa big
PD Sack Rate	5.9%	39	7.4%	61	Iowa

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Stanford	Kevin Hogan	6'4, 218	SR	194	283	2644	24	7	68.6%	18	6.0%	8.5
Stanford	Keller Chryst	6'5, 233	SO	5	9	59	1	0	55.6%	1	10.0%	5.0
Stanford
Iowa	C.J. Beathard	6'2, 209	JR	202	329	2570	15	4	61.4%	22	6.3%	6.9
Iowa	Tyler Wiegers	6'4, 222	FR	3	4	32	0	0	75.0%	1	20.0%	4.8
Iowa

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
Stanford	Christian McCaffrey	RB	6'0, 201	SO	319	1847	8	5.8	4.6	46.4%
Stanford	Remound Wright	RB	5'9, 205	SR	77	209	13	2.7	2.7	16.9%
Stanford	Kevin Hogan	QB	6'4, 218	SR	61	404	5	6.6	5.8	52.5%
Stanford	Barry Sanders	RB	5'10, 198	SR	49	313	4	6.4	9.5	32.7%
Iowa	Jordan Canzeri	RB	5'9, 192	SR	178	976	12	5.5	6.5	35.4%
Iowa	LeShun Daniels, Jr.	RB	6'0, 225	JR	135	609	8	4.5	5.2	28.9%
Iowa	Akrum Wadley	RB	5'11, 185	SO	74	463	7	6.3	7.1	39.2%
Iowa	C.J. Beathard	QB	6'2, 209	JR	66	430	6	6.5	5.9	47.0%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
Stanford	Michael Rector	WR	6'1, 189	SR	51	32	486	5	15.2	9.5	62.7%
Stanford	Austin Hooper	TE	6'4, 248	JR	50	31	415	6	13.4	8.3	62.0%
Stanford	Christian McCaffrey	RB	6'0, 201	SO	49	41	548	4	13.4	11.2	83.7%
Stanford	Devon Cajuste	WR	6'4, 227	SR	38	26	375	3	14.4	9.9	68.4%
Stanford	Francis Owusu	WR	6'3, 212	JR	18	13	175	1	13.5	9.7	72.2%
Stanford	Trenton Irwin	WR	6'2, 199	FR	16	11	138	0	12.6	8.6	68.8%
Stanford	Bryce Love	RB	5'10, 184	FR	15	14	240	1	17.1	16.0	93.3%
Iowa	Matt VandeBerg	WR	6'1, 185	JR	89	61	636	2	10.4	7.2	68.5%
Iowa	Tevaun Smith	WR	6'2, 205	SR	57	30	546	3	18.2	9.6	52.6%
Iowa	Henry Krieger Coble	TE	6'4, 250	SR	45	33	420	3	12.7	9.3	73.3%
Iowa	Jacob Hillyer	WR	6'4, 212	SR	29	14	196	0	14.0	6.8	48.3%
Iowa	Jordan Canzeri	RB	5'9, 192	SR	26	18	196	1	10.9	7.5	69.2%
Iowa	George Kittle	TE	6'4, 235	JR	23	20	290	6	14.5	12.6	87.0%
Iowa	Jerminic Smith	WR	6'1, 180	FR	18	6	141	0	23.5	7.8	33.3%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Stanford	Blake Martinez	ILB	6'2, 245	SR	100.5	15.4%	6.0	1.0	1	5	1	0
Stanford	Dallas Lloyd	SS	6'3, 207	SR	41.5	6.4%	0.5	0.0	1	2	1	0
Stanford	Peter Kalambayi	OLB	6'3, 242	JR	39.0	6.0%	4.5	3.5	0	2	1	0
Stanford	Alameen Murphy	CB	5'11, 192	SO	37.0	5.7%	0.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Stanford	Kodi Whitfield	SS	6'2, 202	SR	34.5	5.3%	2.5	1.0	1	2	1	0
Stanford	Aziz Shittu	DE	6'3, 279	SR	33.5	5.1%	10.5	2.5	0	3	0	0
Stanford	Kevin Anderson	OLB	6'4, 244	SR	30.5	4.7%	8.5	2.0	0	0	0	1
Stanford	Joey Alfieri	OLB	6'3, 240	SO	30.5	4.7%	7.0	3.5	0	0	0	0
Stanford	Ronnie Harris	CB	5'10, 172	SR	30.5	4.7%	1.0	0.0	0	10	0	0
Stanford	Alijah Holder	CB	6'2, 184	SO	29.5	4.5%	1.0	0.0	1	7	0	0
Stanford	Solomon Thomas	DE	6'3, 271	SO	28.0	4.3%	8.5	2.5	0	0	0	1
Stanford	Quenton Meeks	CB	6'2, 195	FR	28.0	4.3%	1.5	0.0	2	4	0	0
Stanford	Kevin Palma	ILB	6'2, 252	JR	27.5	4.2%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Iowa	Josey Jewell	OLB	6'2, 230	SO	88.5	13.2%	7.5	2.5	3	6	1	0
Iowa	Cole Fisher	OLB	6'2, 236	SR	84.0	12.6%	4.5	2.5	1	6	1	0
Iowa	Jordan Lomax	DB	5'10, 205	SR	68.0	10.2%	1.0	0.0	1	6	1	0
Iowa	Desmond King	DB	5'11, 200	JR	55.0	8.2%	1.0	0.0	8	12	0	0
Iowa	Nate Meier	DE	6'2, 252	SR	51.5	7.7%	10.5	6.5	0	1	1	0
Iowa	Miles Taylor	DB	6'0, 195	SO	46.5	7.0%	1.5	0.5	1	3	0	0
Iowa	Greg Mabin	DB	6'2, 200	JR	45.0	6.7%	0.5	0.0	2	8	1	0
Iowa	Ben Niemann	LB	6'3, 225	SO	32.5	4.9%	6.5	3.0	0	2	0	0
Iowa	Parker Hesse	LB	6'3, 240	FR	32.0	4.8%	3.0	2.0	1	1	1	0
Iowa	Jaleel Johnson	DL	6'4, 310	JR	31.5	4.7%	5.5	3.5	0	1	0	0
Iowa	Nathan Bazata	DL	6'2, 284	SO	27.0	4.0%	5.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Iowa	Maurice Fleming	DB	6'0, 205	JR	12.5	1.9%	0.0	0.0	0	5	0	0
Iowa	Matt Nelson	DE	6'8, 270	FR	10.0	1.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Stanford	Alex Robinson	6'0, 207	JR	35	42.9	2	10	11	60.0%
Stanford	Jake Bailey	6'2, 186	FR	10	34.7	2	0	7	70.0%
Iowa	Dillon Kidd	6'2, 215	SR	53	40.4	4	19	20	73.6%
Iowa	Marshall Koehn	6'0, 200	SR	8	40.9	0	0	3	37.5%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
Stanford	Jake Bailey	6'2, 186	FR	65	61.8	11	16.9%	0	6	0	0
Stanford	Conrad Ukropina	6'1, 193	SR	23	60.8	6	26.1%	0	0	1	0
Iowa	Marshall Koehn	6'0, 200	SR	78	63.5	46	59.0%	0	0	0	0
Iowa	Miguel Recinos	6'1, 180	FR	2	61.5	0	0.0%	0	0	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
Stanford	Conrad Ukropina	6'1, 193	SR	61-61	17-19	89.5%
Iowa	Marshall Koehn	6'0, 200	SR	46-51	15-19	78.9%
Iowa	Miguel Recinos	6'1, 180	FR	2-2	0-0	#DIV/0!

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Stanford	Christian McCaffrey	6'0, 201	SO	36	28.9	1	0	0 (0)
Stanford	Dalton Schultz	6'6, 233	SO	4	13.0	0	1	0 (0)
Iowa	Desmond King	5'11, 200	JR	22	25.6	0	0	0 (0)
Iowa	Riley McCarron	5'9, 186	JR	3	21.0	0	0	1 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Stanford	Christian McCaffrey	6'0, 201	SO	14	4.8	0	21	0 (0)
Stanford	Barry Sanders	5'10, 198	SR	2	12.0	0	3	0 (0)
Iowa	Desmond King	5'11, 200	JR	16	12.7	0	24	1 (1)
Iowa	Riley McCarron	5'9, 186	JR	1	10.0	0	3	0 (0)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}