2016 Taxslayer Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Georgia vs. Penn State

Taxslayer Bowl

Penn State Nittany Lions (7-5) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (9-3)

January 02 ( 12:00 PM ET, ESPN ), EverBank Field, Jacksonville

Spread: Georgia -7

S&P+ Projection: Penn State 24.8, Georgia 23.6

Team Sites: Black Shoe Diaries, Dawg Sports

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.}

_{Statistical profiles index.}

_{Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	Penn State		Georgia
S&P+ (Rk)	29		37
Category	Penn State offense	Georgia defense	Georgia offense	Penn State defense
Yards per play (Rk)	5.19 (88)	4.50 (11)	5.67 (46)	4.41 (9)
Yards per game (Rk)	344.2 (109)	294.3 (5)	369.3 (92)	308.8 (11)
Points per possession (Rk)	1.78 (102)	1.35 (12)	2.12 (73)	1.60 (24)
Category	Penn State offense	Georgia defense	Georgia offense	Penn State defense
S&P+ (Rk)	30.3 (56)	18.7 (11)	28.3 (73)	19.5 (16)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	108.9 (38)	115.1 (23)	116.7 (14)	108.7 (39)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	96.2 (81)	114.4 (23)	116.5 (29)	126.7 (8)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	107.2 (45)	115.9 (16)	118.9 (14)	102.7 (53)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	90.3 (93)	109.6 (38)	101.9 (62)	145.5 (4)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	106.2 (57)	124.3 (15)	116.5 (28)	121.7 (18)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	105.8 (56)	94.5 (84)	118.4 (26)	107.9 (53)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	101.1 (76)	143.1 (3)	130.3 (7)	112.8 (34)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	104.9 (54)	98.8 (69)	107.7 (42)	114.5 (26)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

Penn State

1. Third Down S&P+ (No. 46 defense vs. No. 110 offense)
2. Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 11 defense vs. No. 73 offense)
3. Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 4 defense vs. No. 62 offense)
4. Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 4 defense vs. No. 60 offense)
5. Adj. Line Yards (No. 34 offense vs. No. 75 defense)

Georgia

1. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 28 defense vs. No. 120 offense)
2. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 20 defense vs. No. 105 offense)
3. Field Position (No. 25 offense vs. No. 98 defense)
4. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 52 defense vs. No. 116 offense)
5. Third Down S&P+ (No. 32 defense vs. No. 94 offense)

Five Factors

Category	Penn State offense	Georgia defense	Georgia offense	Penn State defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.39 (15)	1.26 (71)	1.27 (60)	1.15 (20)
EFFICIENCY	36.9% (110)	32.4% (4)	42.9% (52)	38.3% (37)
FIELD POSITION	31.8 (34)	28.1 (37)	32.2 (25)	31.2 (98)
FINISHING DRIVES	4.2 (102)	4.0 (23)	4.4 (91)	4.9 (92)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: Penn State 8.23 (11) Georgia -3.00 (99)		ACTUAL Penn State 5 (33) Georgia 3 (47)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Penn State offense	Georgia offense
Adj. Pace	-9.8 (128)	-7.8 (125)
Plays per game	66.3 (123)	65.2 (126)
Possessions per game	13.3 (47)	12.5 (96)
Std. Downs Run Rate	53.5% (99)	65.4% (31)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	32.9% (60)	32.8% (61)
% of solo tackles	75.8% (54)	62.8% (124)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Penn State defense	Georgia defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	62.8% (40)	66.8% (13)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	35.9% (45)	40.7% (13)
Overall Havoc Rate	20.3% (9)	15.6% (71)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	14.7% (2)	9.3% (68)
DB Havoc Rate	5.7% (85)	6.2% (67)
PD to INC	34.5% (50)	26.7% (114)

When Penn State has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Penn State Offense		Georgia Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	107.2	45	115.9	16	Georgia
Standard Downs Success Rate	44.3	100	38.0	6	Georgia big
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.20	24	1.02	13	Georgia
SD Line Yards per Carry	2.76	87	2.74	42	Georgia
SD Sack Rate	9.6%	121	3.2%	110	Georgia

Passing Downs

	Penn State Offense		Georgia Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	90.3	93	109.6	38	Georgia big
Passing Downs Success Rate	23.6	121	23.0	9	Georgia big
Passing Downs IsoPPP	2.03	13	1.63	120	Penn State big
PD Line Yards per Carry	2.82	101	3.32	74	Georgia
PD Sack Rate	10.1%	105	10.4%	20	Georgia big

When Georgia has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Georgia Offense		Penn State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	118.9	14	102.7	53	Georgia
Standard Downs Success Rate	49.4	35	47.1	74	Georgia
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.16	39	0.99	30
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.02	48	2.81	55
SD Sack Rate	2.7%	24	5.9%	37	Georgia

Passing Downs

	Georgia Offense		Penn State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	101.9	62	145.5	4	Penn State big
Passing Downs Success Rate	27.2	92	22.9	8	Penn State big
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.73	76	2.01	29	Penn State
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.24	64	3.15	56
PD Sack Rate	5.8%	37	14.3%	1	Penn State

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Penn State	Christian Hackenberg	6'4, 228	JR	184	345	2386	16	5	53.3%	38	9.9%	5.6
Penn State	Trace McSorley	6'0, 196	FR	6	13	43	0	0	46.2%	1	7.1%	2.7
Georgia	Greyson Lambert	6'5, 220	JR	152	236	1844	11	2	64.4%	9	3.7%	7.3
Georgia	Brice Ramsey	6'3, 213	SO	20	33	247	1	2	60.6%	3	8.3%	6.4
Georgia	Faton Bauta	6'3, 215	JR	15	33	154	0	4	45.5%	1	2.9%	4.4

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
Penn State	Saquon Barkley	RB	5'11, 222	FR	165	1007	7	6.1	7.3	41.8%
Penn State	Akeel Lynch	RB	5'11, 220	JR	54	278	2	5.1	8.7	29.6%
Penn State	Nick Scott	RB	5'11, 198	FR	29	129	1	4.4	4.0	34.5%
Penn State	Mark Allen	RB	5'6, 181	FR	28	101	1	3.6	6.2	25.0%
Georgia	Sony Michel	TB	5'11, 212	SO	200	1076	7	5.4	7.1	32.5%
Georgia	Nick Chubb	TB	5'10, 220	SO	93	747	7	8.0	8.7	47.3%
Georgia	Keith Marshall	TB	5'11, 212	SR	54	288	3	5.3	3.3	46.3%
Georgia	Brendan Douglas	TB	5'11, 215	JR	36	140	0	3.9	3.8	27.8%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
Penn State	Chris Godwin	WR	6'1, 208	SO	106	64	970	5	15.2	9.2	60.4%
Penn State	DaeSean Hamilton	WR	6'1, 206	SO	81	40	514	5	12.9	6.4	49.4%
Penn State	Geno Lewis	WR	6'1, 205	JR	30	14	143	2	10.2	4.8	46.7%
Penn State	Mike Gesicki	TE	6'6, 255	SO	30	13	125	1	9.6	4.2	43.3%
Penn State	Saquon Barkley	RB	5'11, 222	FR	23	15	148	1	9.9	6.4	65.2%
Penn State	Kyle Carter	TE	6'3, 252	SR	21	13	132	0	10.2	6.3	61.9%
Penn State	Saeed Blacknall	WR	6'3, 211	SO	17	7	241	1	34.4	14.2	41.2%
Georgia	Malcolm Mitchell	SE	6'1, 195	SR	84	53	751	4	14.2	8.9	63.1%
Georgia	Terry Godwin	WR	5'11, 174	FR	50	31	345	1	11.1	6.9	62.0%
Georgia	Sony Michel	TB	5'11, 212	SO	32	25	270	3	10.8	8.4	78.1%
Georgia	Jeb Blazevich	TE	6'5, 248	SO	23	13	131	1	10.1	5.7	56.5%
Georgia	Reggie Davis	FL	6'0, 170	JR	22	12	187	1	15.6	8.5	54.5%
Georgia	Isaiah McKenzie	WR	5'8, 170	SO	17	10	123	0	12.3	7.2	58.8%
Georgia	Jay Rome	TE	6'6, 250	SR	11	8	88	0	11.0	8.0	72.7%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Penn State	Jason Cabinda	LB	6'1, 245	SO	64.0	9.8%	4.0	2.5	1	5	1	0
Penn State	Marcus Allen	S	6'2, 209	SO	57.5	8.8%	3.5	1.0	0	2	1	1
Penn State	Troy Reeder	LB	6'1, 241	FR	54.5	8.4%	5.5	0.0	1	1	0	0
Penn State	Austin Johnson	DT	6'4, 323	JR	48.0	7.4%	13.0	5.5	0	2	1	1
Penn State	Jordan Lucas	S	6'0, 199	SR	45.0	6.9%	2.5	1.0	0	3	1	0
Penn State	Brandon Bell	LB	6'1, 231	JR	41.0	6.3%	11.5	5.5	1	0	3	0
Penn State	Carl Nassib	DE	6'7, 272	SR	38.5	5.9%	19.5	15.5	1	1	6	0
Penn State	Anthony Zettel	DT	6'4, 284	SR	31.0	4.8%	10.0	3.0	0	5	1	0
Penn State	Grant Haley	CB	5'9, 189	SO	28.0	4.3%	1.0	0.0	2	7	1	0
Penn State	Trevor Williams	CB	6'0, 200	SR	26.0	4.0%	3.0	0.0	1	3	0	0
Penn State	Malik Golden	S	6'0, 205	JR	24.0	3.7%	0.0	0.0	1	1	0	0
Penn State	John Reid	CB	5'10, 186	FR	22.0	3.4%	1.0	0.0	2	3	1	1
Penn State	Garrett Sickels	DE	6'4, 258	SO	21.5	3.3%	4.5	3.0	0	1	1	1
Georgia	Jake Ganus	ILB	6'2, 233	SR	68.5	11.0%	4.5	1.0	2	0	0	0
Georgia	Leonard Floyd	OLB	6'4, 231	JR	51.0	8.2%	10.5	4.5	0	3	0	1
Georgia	Tim Kimbrough	ILB	6'0, 226	JR	47.5	7.6%	5.5	1.0	0	1	1	0
Georgia	Quincy Mauger	FS	6'0, 200	JR	44.5	7.1%	3.5	0.5	0	5	0	0
Georgia	Jordan Jenkins	OLB	6'3, 253	SR	41.0	6.6%	10.5	4.0	0	0	2	0
Georgia	Dominick Sanders	SS	6'0, 189	SO	33.5	5.4%	4.0	1.0	5	5	0	0
Georgia	Malkom Parrish	CB	5'10, 188	SO	31.0	5.0%	5.0	1.0	2	2	0	0
Georgia	Aaron Davis	CB	6'1, 190	SO	31.0	5.0%	3.0	1.0	1	2	0	0
Georgia	Sterling Bailey	DT	6'3, 282	SR	29.5	4.7%	2.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Georgia	Chris Mayes	NG	6'4, 323	SR	28.5	4.6%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Georgia	Davin Bellamy	OLB	6'5, 241	SO	23.5	3.8%	5.5	3.0	0	1	2	0
Georgia	Johnathan Abram	FS	6'1, 200	FR	18.0	2.9%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Georgia	Trenton Thompson	DT	6'4, 307	FR	16.5	2.6%	2.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Penn State	Daniel Pasquariello	6'1, 200	SO	52	40.3	3	9	9	34.6%
Penn State	Chris Gulla	6'1, 199	SO	23	37.7	2	6	6	52.2%
Georgia	Collin Barber	6'2, 208	SR	39	40.3	6	8	10	46.2%
Georgia	Brice Ramsey	6'3, 213	SO	20	42.4	0	6	5	55.0%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
Penn State	Joey Julius	5'10, 259	FR	49	63.2	21	42.9%	0	4	0	0
Penn State	Tyler Davis	5'11, 186	SO	10	59.5	3	30.0%	0	1	0	0
Georgia	Marshall Morgan	6'3, 194	SR	56	62.6	17	30.4%	1	0	1	0
Georgia	Collin Barber	6'2, 208	SR	9	62.1	5	55.6%	0	0	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
Penn State	Joey Julius	5'10, 259	FR	20-24	10-12	83.3%
Penn State	Tyler Davis	5'11, 186	SO	9-9	7-7	100.0%
Georgia	Marshall Morgan	6'3, 194	SR	37-37	17-24	70.8%
Georgia	Patrick Beless	5'9, 166	SR	0-0	0-1	0.0%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Penn State	Koa Farmer	6'1, 222	FR	18	22.5	0	0	1 (1)
Penn State	Nick Scott	5'11, 198	FR	13	23.8	0	0	1 (1)
Georgia	Reggie Davis	6'0, 170	JR	17	23.2	0	0	1 (0)
Georgia	Isaiah McKenzie	5'8, 170	SO	4	10.5	0	0	1 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Penn State	DeAndre Thompkins	5'11, 185	FR	23	7.7	0	23	3 (3)
Penn State	Mark Allen	5'6, 181	FR	5	6.6	0	0	0 (0)
Georgia	Isaiah McKenzie	5'8, 170	SO	15	12.1	2	3	2 (1)
Georgia	Reggie Davis	6'0, 170	JR	8	13.8	1	10	2 (1)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}