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2016 Alamo Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: TCU vs. Oregon

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Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Valero Alamo Bowl

No. 15 Oregon Ducks (9-3) vs. No. 11 TCU Horned Frogs (10-2)

January 02 ( 6:45 PM ET, ESPN ), Alamodome, San Antonio
Spread: TCU 0
S&P+ Projection: TCU 36.0, Oregon 33.7
Team Sites: Addicted To Quack, Frogs O' War

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Statistical profiles index.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Oregon TCU
S&P+ (Rk) 31 23
Category Oregon offense TCU defense TCU offense Oregon defense
Yards per play (Rk) 6.84 (5) 5.10 (50) 6.60 (12) 5.78 (101)
Yards per game (Rk) 539.8 (7) 409.1 (75) 562.4 (4) 478.9 (117)
Points per possession (Rk) 3.14 (9) 1.73 (34) 2.78 (22) 2.67 (110)
Category Oregon offense TCU defense TCU offense Oregon defense
S&P+ (Rk) 41.9 (8) 26.6 (56) 39.5 (13) 31.4 (88)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 126.3 (4) 109.3 (37) 103.9 (65) 87.8 (110)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 123.1 (19) 112.2 (26) 124.8 (14) 101.4 (61)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 124.9 (5) 112.5 (27) 114.6 (23) 97.9 (78)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 121.4 (22) 108.2 (41) 116.4 (35) 93.0 (90)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 122.4 (19) 112.9 (32) 124.6 (13) 99.3 (62)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 142.6 (2) 107.4 (55) 99.7 (75) 103.9 (66)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 118.2 (28) 125.2 (14) 122.0 (20) 89.3 (107)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 114.8 (23) 121.5 (14) 126.2 (7) 92.6 (100)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Oregon

  1. Run Stuffs (No. 20 offense vs. No. 109 defense)
  2. Q2 S&P+ (No. 8 vs. No. 67 )
  3. Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 18 offense vs. No. 65 defense)
  4. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 2 offense vs. No. 43 defense)
  5. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 11 offense vs. No. 49 defense)

TCU

  1. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 19 defense vs. No. 124 offense)
  2. Run Stuffs (No. 11 offense vs. No. 96 defense)
  3. First Down S&P+ (No. 21 offense vs. No. 96 defense)
  4. Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 19 offense vs. No. 87 defense)
  5. Overall S&P+ (No. 20 offense vs. No. 83 defense)
Five Factors
Category Oregon offense TCU defense TCU offense Oregon defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.41 (8) 1.37 (108) 1.34 (27) 1.22 (55)
EFFICIENCY 48.6% (12) 36.9% (23) 48.1% (15) 45.5% (102)
FIELD POSITION 31.9 (29) 27.2 (18) 30.8 (44) 30.0 (73)
FINISHING DRIVES 5.0 (43) 4.7 (74) 5.1 (39) 5.1 (106)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Oregon 5.21 (23)
TCU 3.93 (31)
ACTUAL
Oregon 5 (33)
TCU 0 (65)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Oregon offense TCU offense
Adj. Pace 5.8 (21) 10.2 (3)
Plays per game 78.9 (26) 85.3 (8)
Possessions per game 13.8 (32) 15.0 (1)
Std. Downs Run Rate 64.9% (33) 56.7% (83)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 39.7% (30) 27.4% (95)
% of solo tackles 73.1% (80) 81.0% (20)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Oregon defense TCU defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 50.9% (123) 62.1% (44)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 20.7% (128) 34.7% (57)
Overall Havoc Rate 16.2% (55) 15.7% (66)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 9.9% (58) 6.5% (117)
DB Havoc Rate 5.7% (84) 9.2% (6)
PD to INC 34.7% (47) 28.0% (104)

When Oregon has the ball…

Standard Downs
Oregon Offense TCU Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 124.9 5 112.5 27 Oregon
Standard Downs Success Rate 53.4 14 42.9 41 Oregon
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.28 7 1.10 88 Oregon big
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.48 4 3.00 85 Oregon big
SD Sack Rate 5.7% 82 3.7% 102 Oregon
Passing Downs
Oregon Offense TCU Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 121.4 22 108.2 41 Oregon
Passing Downs Success Rate 36.8 19 24.4 16
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.88 36 1.63 126 Oregon big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.75 19 2.33 6 TCU
PD Sack Rate 13.2% 124 10.8% 19 TCU big

When TCU has the ball…

Standard Downs
TCU Offense Oregon Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 114.6 23 97.9 78 TCU big
Standard Downs Success Rate 52.8 15 49.5 96 TCU big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.22 20 1.15 67 TCU
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.26 17 3.15 101 TCU big
SD Sack Rate 2.1% 15 6.5% 21
Passing Downs
TCU Offense Oregon Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 116.4 35 93.0 90 TCU big
Passing Downs Success Rate 35.8 24 35.8 111 TCU big
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.79 59 2.17 31 Oregon
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.42 45 4.10 127 TCU big
PD Sack Rate 5.1% 27 6% 88 TCU big
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Oregon Vernon Adams 5'11, 201 SR 155 240 2446 25 6 64.6% 24 9.1% 8.7
Oregon Jeff Lockie 6'2, 205 JR 54 84 544 5 4 64.3% 9 9.7% 5.4
Oregon Taylor Alie 6'0, 185 SO 6 14 96 1 0 42.9% 1 6.7% 6.2
TCU Trevone Boykin 6'2, 205 SR 257 396 3575 31 10 64.9% 12 2.9% 8.6
TCU Bram Kohlhausen 6'2, 203 SR 27 43 369 3 1 62.8% 1 2.3% 8.3
TCU Foster Sawyer 6'5, 228 FR 10 26 155 2 3 38.5% 3 10.3% 5.0
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Oregon Royce Freeman RB 5'11, 230 SO 258 1706 14 6.6 6.5 44.6%
Oregon Taj Griffin RB 5'10, 175 FR 73 529 3 7.2 12.4 37.0%
Oregon Vernon Adams Jr. QB 5'11, 201 SR 56 296 2 5.3 3.4 46.4%
Oregon Kani Benoit RB 6'0, 210 SO 50 359 3 7.2 7.1 48.0%
TCU Aaron Green TB 5'11, 205 SR 220 1171 10 5.3 4.8 42.3%
TCU Trevone Boykin QB 6'2, 205 SR 111 671 9 6.0 5.2 47.7%
TCU Kyle Hicks TB 5'10, 200 SO 50 250 3 5.0 4.5 38.0%
TCU Trevorris Johnson TB 5'11, 221 SO 42 262 0 6.2 4.0 50.0%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Oregon Bralon Addison WR 5'10, 190 JR 86 58 775 10 13.4 9.0 67.4%
Oregon Dwayne Stanford WR 6'5, 205 JR 41 27 431 5 16.0 10.5 65.9%
Oregon Darren Carrington WR 6'2, 195 SO 34 25 502 5 20.1 14.8 73.5%
Oregon Royce Freeman RB 5'11, 230 SO 29 24 325 2 13.5 11.2 82.8%
Oregon Charles Nelson WR 5'8, 170 SO 26 15 258 3 17.2 9.9 57.7%
Oregon Evan Baylis TE 6'6, 250 JR 25 15 199 1 13.3 8.0 60.0%
Oregon Devon Allen WR 6'0, 185 SO 18 9 94 0 10.4 5.2 50.0%
TCU Josh Doctson WR 6'3, 195 SR 107 79 1327 14 16.8 12.4 73.8%
TCU Shaun Nixon TB 5'10, 196 FR 57 38 430 1 11.3 7.5 66.7%
TCU KaVontae Turpin WR 5'9, 152 FR 54 40 584 8 14.6 10.8 74.1%
TCU Kolby Listenbee WR 6'1, 183 SR 50 29 598 5 20.6 12.0 58.0%
TCU Desmon White WR 5'7, 150 SO 31 19 258 0 13.6 8.3 61.3%
TCU Jarrison Stewart WR 6'0, 190 FR 27 19 226 1 11.9 8.4 70.4%
TCU Emanuel Porter WR 6'4, 210 SO 23 10 160 2 16.0 7.0 43.5%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Oregon Joe Walker LB 6'2, 240 SR 62.5 9.2% 5.0 2.0 1 1 0 1
Oregon DeForest Buckner DL 6'7, 290 SR 58.0 8.5% 16.0 9.5 0 5 0 0
Oregon Rodney Hardrick LB 6'1, 245 SR 54.0 7.9% 5.0 2.0 1 1 1 0
Oregon Tyree Robinson SS 6'4, 205 SO 46.0 6.7% 1.5 1.0 3 4 0 0
Oregon Reggie Daniels DB 6'1, 205 JR 44.0 6.4% 2.5 0.0 0 10 0 0
Oregon Tyson Coleman LB 6'1, 235 SR 43.0 6.3% 10.0 3.5 0 2 2 0
Oregon Arrion Springs DB 5'11, 205 SO 41.5 6.1% 1.0 1.0 1 12 2 1
Oregon Charles Nelson WR 5'8, 170 SO 36.0 5.3% 0.0 0.0 1 4 0 0
Oregon Torrodney Prevot LB 6'3, 220 JR 31.0 4.5% 7.5 2.5 0 2 1 0
Oregon Tui Talia DL 6'5, 285 SR 23.5 3.4% 5.0 2.0 0 0 0 0
Oregon Alex Balducci DL 6'4, 310 SR 23.0 3.4% 5.5 3.5 0 0 0 0
Oregon Ugo Amadi CB 5'10, 185 FR 22.5 3.3% 2.0 0.0 2 3 0 0
Oregon Christian French LB 6'5, 250 SR 20.5 3.0% 5.0 2.0 0 0 0 0
TCU Travin Howard S 6'1, 190 SO 74.5 11.0% 6.5 0.0 1 2 3 0
TCU Derrick Kindred S 5'10, 210 SR 65.0 9.6% 3.5 0.0 2 3 2 0
TCU Denzel Johnson S 6'2, 205 JR 60.5 8.9% 12.5 2.0 1 6 0 0
TCU Ty Summers LB 6'2, 230 FR 55.0 8.1% 2.0 0.0 1 1 0 0
TCU Montrel Wilson LB 6'3, 208 FR 45.5 6.7% 4.0 2.5 0 1 1 0
TCU Nick Orr S 5'10, 166 SO 39.0 5.7% 3.0 1.0 1 9 1 0
TCU Josh Carraway DE 6'4, 250 JR 33.5 4.9% 10.5 8.0 0 2 1 2
TCU Corry O'Meally CB 6'0, 170 SR 32.5 4.8% 0.5 0.5 0 10 0 0
TCU Ridwan Issahaku S 6'1, 180 FR 31.0 4.6% 2.0 0.0 0 4 0 0
TCU Aaron Curry DT 6'2, 280 JR 30.5 4.5% 4.0 3.0 0 0 0 0
TCU Terrell Lathan DE 6'5, 280 SR 25.0 3.7% 5.5 3.0 0 3 1 0
TCU Davion Pierson DT 6'2, 305 SR 22.0 3.2% 6.0 2.0 0 0 0 0
TCU Chris Bradley DT 6'2, 255 SO 19.5 2.9% 4.5 2.0 0 1 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Oregon Ian Wheeler 6'0, 205 SO 44 40.1 2 14 9 52.3%
Oregon Matt Wogan 6'2, 210 JR 1 38.0 0 0 0 0.0%
TCU Ethan Perry 6'4, 230 SR 61 39.2 4 19 24 70.5%
TCU Trevone Boykin 6'2, 205 SR 1 18.0 0 0 1 100.0%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Oregon Matt Wogan 6'2, 210 JR 92 63.7 56 60.9% 0 0 0 0
TCU Jaden Oberkrom 6'3, 187 SR 86 62.8 55 64.0% 2 1 2 0
TCU Jonathan Song 5'10, 170 FR 2 63.5 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Oregon Aidan Schneider 6'4, 235 SO 62-62 20-22 90.9%
TCU Jaden Oberkrom 6'3, 187 SR 56-57 17-21 81.0%
TCU Jonathan Song 5'10, 170 FR 1-1 0-0 #DIV/0!
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Oregon Charles Nelson 5'8, 170 SO 29 26.1 1 1 1 (0)
Oregon Byron Marshall 5'10, 200 SR 14 27.5 0 0 0 (0)
TCU KaVontae Turpin 5'9, 152 FR 27 27.0 0 0 0 (0)
TCU Kolby Listenbee 6'1, 183 SR 4 19.0 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Oregon Bralon Addison 5'10, 190 JR 11 13.6 1 17 1 (0)
TCU KaVontae Turpin 5'9, 152 FR 17 10.6 1 31 2 (0)
TCU Desmon White 5'7, 150 SO 0 0.0 0 2 0 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics