2016 Alamo Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: TCU vs. Oregon

Valero Alamo Bowl

No. 15 Oregon Ducks (9-3) vs. No. 11 TCU Horned Frogs (10-2)

January 02 ( 6:45 PM ET, ESPN ), Alamodome, San Antonio

Spread: TCU 0

S&P+ Projection: TCU 36.0, Oregon 33.7

Team Sites: Addicted To Quack, Frogs O' War

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.}

_{Statistical profiles index.}

_{Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	Oregon		TCU
S&P+ (Rk)	31		23
Category	Oregon offense	TCU defense	TCU offense	Oregon defense
Yards per play (Rk)	6.84 (5)	5.10 (50)	6.60 (12)	5.78 (101)
Yards per game (Rk)	539.8 (7)	409.1 (75)	562.4 (4)	478.9 (117)
Points per possession (Rk)	3.14 (9)	1.73 (34)	2.78 (22)	2.67 (110)
Category	Oregon offense	TCU defense	TCU offense	Oregon defense
S&P+ (Rk)	41.9 (8)	26.6 (56)	39.5 (13)	31.4 (88)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	126.3 (4)	109.3 (37)	103.9 (65)	87.8 (110)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	123.1 (19)	112.2 (26)	124.8 (14)	101.4 (61)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	124.9 (5)	112.5 (27)	114.6 (23)	97.9 (78)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	121.4 (22)	108.2 (41)	116.4 (35)	93.0 (90)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	122.4 (19)	112.9 (32)	124.6 (13)	99.3 (62)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	142.6 (2)	107.4 (55)	99.7 (75)	103.9 (66)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	118.2 (28)	125.2 (14)	122.0 (20)	89.3 (107)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	114.8 (23)	121.5 (14)	126.2 (7)	92.6 (100)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

Oregon

1. Run Stuffs (No. 20 offense vs. No. 109 defense)
2. Q2 S&P+ (No. 8 vs. No. 67 )
3. Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 18 offense vs. No. 65 defense)
4. Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 2 offense vs. No. 43 defense)
5. Passing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 11 offense vs. No. 49 defense)

TCU

1. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 19 defense vs. No. 124 offense)
2. Run Stuffs (No. 11 offense vs. No. 96 defense)
3. First Down S&P+ (No. 21 offense vs. No. 96 defense)
4. Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 19 offense vs. No. 87 defense)
5. Overall S&P+ (No. 20 offense vs. No. 83 defense)

Five Factors

Category	Oregon offense	TCU defense	TCU offense	Oregon defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.41 (8)	1.37 (108)	1.34 (27)	1.22 (55)
EFFICIENCY	48.6% (12)	36.9% (23)	48.1% (15)	45.5% (102)
FIELD POSITION	31.9 (29)	27.2 (18)	30.8 (44)	30.0 (73)
FINISHING DRIVES	5.0 (43)	4.7 (74)	5.1 (39)	5.1 (106)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: Oregon 5.21 (23) TCU 3.93 (31)		ACTUAL Oregon 5 (33) TCU 0 (65)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Oregon offense	TCU offense
Adj. Pace	5.8 (21)	10.2 (3)
Plays per game	78.9 (26)	85.3 (8)
Possessions per game	13.8 (32)	15.0 (1)
Std. Downs Run Rate	64.9% (33)	56.7% (83)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	39.7% (30)	27.4% (95)
% of solo tackles	73.1% (80)	81.0% (20)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	Oregon defense	TCU defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	50.9% (123)	62.1% (44)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	20.7% (128)	34.7% (57)
Overall Havoc Rate	16.2% (55)	15.7% (66)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	9.9% (58)	6.5% (117)
DB Havoc Rate	5.7% (84)	9.2% (6)
PD to INC	34.7% (47)	28.0% (104)

When Oregon has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Oregon Offense		TCU Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	124.9	5	112.5	27	Oregon
Standard Downs Success Rate	53.4	14	42.9	41	Oregon
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.28	7	1.10	88	Oregon big
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.48	4	3.00	85	Oregon big
SD Sack Rate	5.7%	82	3.7%	102	Oregon

Passing Downs

	Oregon Offense		TCU Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	121.4	22	108.2	41	Oregon
Passing Downs Success Rate	36.8	19	24.4	16
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.88	36	1.63	126	Oregon big
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.75	19	2.33	6	TCU
PD Sack Rate	13.2%	124	10.8%	19	TCU big

When TCU has the ball…

Standard Downs

	TCU Offense		Oregon Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	114.6	23	97.9	78	TCU big
Standard Downs Success Rate	52.8	15	49.5	96	TCU big
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.22	20	1.15	67	TCU
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.26	17	3.15	101	TCU big
SD Sack Rate	2.1%	15	6.5%	21

Passing Downs

	TCU Offense		Oregon Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	116.4	35	93.0	90	TCU big
Passing Downs Success Rate	35.8	24	35.8	111	TCU big
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.79	59	2.17	31	Oregon
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.42	45	4.10	127	TCU big
PD Sack Rate	5.1%	27	6%	88	TCU big

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Oregon	Vernon Adams	5'11, 201	SR	155	240	2446	25	6	64.6%	24	9.1%	8.7
Oregon	Jeff Lockie	6'2, 205	JR	54	84	544	5	4	64.3%	9	9.7%	5.4
Oregon	Taylor Alie	6'0, 185	SO	6	14	96	1	0	42.9%	1	6.7%	6.2
TCU	Trevone Boykin	6'2, 205	SR	257	396	3575	31	10	64.9%	12	2.9%	8.6
TCU	Bram Kohlhausen	6'2, 203	SR	27	43	369	3	1	62.8%	1	2.3%	8.3
TCU	Foster Sawyer	6'5, 228	FR	10	26	155	2	3	38.5%	3	10.3%	5.0

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
Oregon	Royce Freeman	RB	5'11, 230	SO	258	1706	14	6.6	6.5	44.6%
Oregon	Taj Griffin	RB	5'10, 175	FR	73	529	3	7.2	12.4	37.0%
Oregon	Vernon Adams Jr.	QB	5'11, 201	SR	56	296	2	5.3	3.4	46.4%
Oregon	Kani Benoit	RB	6'0, 210	SO	50	359	3	7.2	7.1	48.0%
TCU	Aaron Green	TB	5'11, 205	SR	220	1171	10	5.3	4.8	42.3%
TCU	Trevone Boykin	QB	6'2, 205	SR	111	671	9	6.0	5.2	47.7%
TCU	Kyle Hicks	TB	5'10, 200	SO	50	250	3	5.0	4.5	38.0%
TCU	Trevorris Johnson	TB	5'11, 221	SO	42	262	0	6.2	4.0	50.0%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
Oregon	Bralon Addison	WR	5'10, 190	JR	86	58	775	10	13.4	9.0	67.4%
Oregon	Dwayne Stanford	WR	6'5, 205	JR	41	27	431	5	16.0	10.5	65.9%
Oregon	Darren Carrington	WR	6'2, 195	SO	34	25	502	5	20.1	14.8	73.5%
Oregon	Royce Freeman	RB	5'11, 230	SO	29	24	325	2	13.5	11.2	82.8%
Oregon	Charles Nelson	WR	5'8, 170	SO	26	15	258	3	17.2	9.9	57.7%
Oregon	Evan Baylis	TE	6'6, 250	JR	25	15	199	1	13.3	8.0	60.0%
Oregon	Devon Allen	WR	6'0, 185	SO	18	9	94	0	10.4	5.2	50.0%
TCU	Josh Doctson	WR	6'3, 195	SR	107	79	1327	14	16.8	12.4	73.8%
TCU	Shaun Nixon	TB	5'10, 196	FR	57	38	430	1	11.3	7.5	66.7%
TCU	KaVontae Turpin	WR	5'9, 152	FR	54	40	584	8	14.6	10.8	74.1%
TCU	Kolby Listenbee	WR	6'1, 183	SR	50	29	598	5	20.6	12.0	58.0%
TCU	Desmon White	WR	5'7, 150	SO	31	19	258	0	13.6	8.3	61.3%
TCU	Jarrison Stewart	WR	6'0, 190	FR	27	19	226	1	11.9	8.4	70.4%
TCU	Emanuel Porter	WR	6'4, 210	SO	23	10	160	2	16.0	7.0	43.5%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Oregon	Joe Walker	LB	6'2, 240	SR	62.5	9.2%	5.0	2.0	1	1	0	1
Oregon	DeForest Buckner	DL	6'7, 290	SR	58.0	8.5%	16.0	9.5	0	5	0	0
Oregon	Rodney Hardrick	LB	6'1, 245	SR	54.0	7.9%	5.0	2.0	1	1	1	0
Oregon	Tyree Robinson	SS	6'4, 205	SO	46.0	6.7%	1.5	1.0	3	4	0	0
Oregon	Reggie Daniels	DB	6'1, 205	JR	44.0	6.4%	2.5	0.0	0	10	0	0
Oregon	Tyson Coleman	LB	6'1, 235	SR	43.0	6.3%	10.0	3.5	0	2	2	0
Oregon	Arrion Springs	DB	5'11, 205	SO	41.5	6.1%	1.0	1.0	1	12	2	1
Oregon	Charles Nelson	WR	5'8, 170	SO	36.0	5.3%	0.0	0.0	1	4	0	0
Oregon	Torrodney Prevot	LB	6'3, 220	JR	31.0	4.5%	7.5	2.5	0	2	1	0
Oregon	Tui Talia	DL	6'5, 285	SR	23.5	3.4%	5.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Oregon	Alex Balducci	DL	6'4, 310	SR	23.0	3.4%	5.5	3.5	0	0	0	0
Oregon	Ugo Amadi	CB	5'10, 185	FR	22.5	3.3%	2.0	0.0	2	3	0	0
Oregon	Christian French	LB	6'5, 250	SR	20.5	3.0%	5.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
TCU	Travin Howard	S	6'1, 190	SO	74.5	11.0%	6.5	0.0	1	2	3	0
TCU	Derrick Kindred	S	5'10, 210	SR	65.0	9.6%	3.5	0.0	2	3	2	0
TCU	Denzel Johnson	S	6'2, 205	JR	60.5	8.9%	12.5	2.0	1	6	0	0
TCU	Ty Summers	LB	6'2, 230	FR	55.0	8.1%	2.0	0.0	1	1	0	0
TCU	Montrel Wilson	LB	6'3, 208	FR	45.5	6.7%	4.0	2.5	0	1	1	0
TCU	Nick Orr	S	5'10, 166	SO	39.0	5.7%	3.0	1.0	1	9	1	0
TCU	Josh Carraway	DE	6'4, 250	JR	33.5	4.9%	10.5	8.0	0	2	1	2
TCU	Corry O'Meally	CB	6'0, 170	SR	32.5	4.8%	0.5	0.5	0	10	0	0
TCU	Ridwan Issahaku	S	6'1, 180	FR	31.0	4.6%	2.0	0.0	0	4	0	0
TCU	Aaron Curry	DT	6'2, 280	JR	30.5	4.5%	4.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
TCU	Terrell Lathan	DE	6'5, 280	SR	25.0	3.7%	5.5	3.0	0	3	1	0
TCU	Davion Pierson	DT	6'2, 305	SR	22.0	3.2%	6.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
TCU	Chris Bradley	DT	6'2, 255	SO	19.5	2.9%	4.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Oregon	Ian Wheeler	6'0, 205	SO	44	40.1	2	14	9	52.3%
Oregon	Matt Wogan	6'2, 210	JR	1	38.0	0	0	0	0.0%
TCU	Ethan Perry	6'4, 230	SR	61	39.2	4	19	24	70.5%
TCU	Trevone Boykin	6'2, 205	SR	1	18.0	0	0	1	100.0%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
Oregon	Matt Wogan	6'2, 210	JR	92	63.7	56	60.9%	0	0	0	0
TCU	Jaden Oberkrom	6'3, 187	SR	86	62.8	55	64.0%	2	1	2	0
TCU	Jonathan Song	5'10, 170	FR	2	63.5	0	0.0%	0	0	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
Oregon	Aidan Schneider	6'4, 235	SO	62-62	20-22	90.9%
TCU	Jaden Oberkrom	6'3, 187	SR	56-57	17-21	81.0%
TCU	Jonathan Song	5'10, 170	FR	1-1	0-0	#DIV/0!

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Oregon	Charles Nelson	5'8, 170	SO	29	26.1	1	1	1 (0)
Oregon	Byron Marshall	5'10, 200	SR	14	27.5	0	0	0 (0)
TCU	KaVontae Turpin	5'9, 152	FR	27	27.0	0	0	0 (0)
TCU	Kolby Listenbee	6'1, 183	SR	4	19.0	0	0	0 (0)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
Oregon	Bralon Addison	5'10, 190	JR	11	13.6	1	17	1 (0)
TCU	KaVontae Turpin	5'9, 152	FR	17	10.6	1	31	2 (0)
TCU	Desmon White	5'7, 150	SO	0	0.0	0	2	0 (0)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}