2016 Cactus Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Arizona State vs. West Virginia

Motel 6 Cactus Bowl

West Virginia Mountaineers (7-5) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6)

January 02 ( 10:15 PM ET, ESPN ), Chase Field, Phoenix

Spread: Arizona State -1

S&P+ Projection: West Virginia 34.9, Arizona State 24.3

Team Sites: The Smoking Musket, House Of Sparky

_{Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.}

_{Statistical profiles index.}

_{Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.}

The Basics

Category	West Virginia		Arizona State
S&P+ (Rk)	18		61
Category	West Virginia offense	Arizona State defense	Arizona State offense	West Virginia defense
Yards per play (Rk)	5.51 (56)	5.82 (103)	5.59 (50)	5.09 (47)
Yards per game (Rk)	464.1 (26)	440.2 (103)	478.8 (21)	393.5 (62)
Points per possession (Rk)	2.28 (66)	2.23 (77)	2.32 (60)	1.61 (25)
Category	West Virginia offense	Arizona State defense	Arizona State offense	West Virginia defense
S&P+ (Rk)	34.7 (29)	29.9 (79)	33.7 (35)	20.3 (18)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk)	110.0 (32)	113.8 (26)	99.5 (77)	128.6 (3)
Passing S&P+ (Rk)	105.1 (51)	100.3 (67)	103.8 (58)	121.8 (14)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk)	108.2 (40)	107.8 (36)	102.7 (57)	120.0 (9)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk)	100.9 (64)	98.5 (76)	97.1 (81)	132.7 (7)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk)	101.0 (75)	126.8 (11)	94.1 (99)	131.1 (9)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk)	117.9 (27)	118.1 (22)	98.6 (78)	129.6 (9)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk)	110.3 (44)	107.8 (44)	102.5 (70)	112.7 (35)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk)	89.4 (105)	81.3 (123)	114.7 (24)	133.9 (5)

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

_{* or smallest disadvantages}

West Virginia

1. Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 4 defense vs. No. 102 offense)
2. Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 4 defense vs. No. 98 offense)
3. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 14 defense vs. No. 99 offense)
4. Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 4 defense vs. No. 88 offense)
5. Rushing S&P+ (No. 3 defense vs. No. 77 offense)

Arizona State

1. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 11 defense vs. No. 103 offense)
2. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 25 defense vs. No. 88 offense)
3. Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 12 defense vs. No. 62 offense)
4. Run Stuffs (No. 38 offense vs. No. 85 defense)
5. Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 21 defense vs. No. 67 offense)

Five Factors

Category	West Virginia offense	Arizona State defense	Arizona State offense	West Virginia defense
EXPLOSIVENESS	1.26 (65)	1.44 (123)	1.31 (38)	1.39 (112)
EFFICIENCY	44.8% (31)	38.5% (42)	41.0% (77)	34.0% (11)
FIELD POSITION	30.3 (58)	28.5 (43)	30.3 (57)	28.1 (34)
FINISHING DRIVES	4.8 (63)	5.3 (116)	4.8 (64)	3.9 (19)
TURNOVER MARGIN	EXPECTED: West Virginia 8.05 (13) Arizona State -6.78 (114)		ACTUAL West Virginia 11 (11) Arizona State 0 (65)

Offensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	West Virginia offense	Arizona State offense
Adj. Pace	9.8 (5)	9.7 (6)
Plays per game	84.3 (9)	85.7 (4)
Possessions per game	14.6 (7)	14.7 (6)
Std. Downs Run Rate	62.6% (47)	55.7% (89)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	45.0% (14)	29.5% (82)
% of solo tackles	84.3% (8)	82.8% (13)

Defensive Footprint

Category (Rk)	West Virginia defense	Arizona State defense
Std. Downs Run Rate	59.5% (69)	50.8% (124)
Pass. Downs Run Rate	37.5% (27)	28.2% (113)
Overall Havoc Rate	19.8% (14)	18.4% (29)
Front 7 Havoc Rate	9.9% (56)	12.4% (13)
DB Havoc Rate	9.8% (2)	6.0% (76)
PD to INC	40.4% (10)	26.6% (115)

When West Virginia has the ball…

Standard Downs

	West Virginia Offense		Arizona State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	108.2	40	107.8	36
Standard Downs Success Rate	49.8	31	42.4	28
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.14	45	1.23	113	West Virginia big
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.42	5	2.46	14
SD Sack Rate	7.9%	113	4.8%	77	Arizona State

Passing Downs

	West Virginia Offense		Arizona State Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	100.9	64	98.5	76	West Virginia
Passing Downs Success Rate	32.0	55	31.7	80	West Virginia
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.73	77	1.86	111	West Virginia
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.68	24	2.95	43	West Virginia
PD Sack Rate	10%	103	11.8%	11	Arizona State big

When Arizona State has the ball…

Standard Downs

	Arizona State Offense		West Virginia Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Standard Downs S&P+	102.7	57	120.0	9	West Virginia
Standard Downs Success Rate	45.7	80	40.0	11	West Virginia big
Standard Downs IsoPPP	1.17	36	1.24	110	Arizona State big
SD Line Yards per Carry	3.09	32	2.83	58	Arizona State
SD Sack Rate	6.8%	99	7.1%	14	West Virginia big

Passing Downs

	Arizona State Offense		West Virginia Defense
	Avg.	Rk	Avg.	Rk	Edge
Passing Downs S&P+	97.1	81	132.7	7	West Virginia big
Passing Downs Success Rate	30.3	68	24.1	14	West Virginia big
Passing Downs IsoPPP	1.77	63	1.93	91	Arizona State
PD Line Yards per Carry	3.00	87	3.18	62	West Virginia
PD Sack Rate	8.1%	82	5.7%	95	Arizona State

Individual Passing Stats

Team	Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
West Virginia	Skyler Howard	6'0, 202	JR	193	352	2613	21	12	54.8%	29	7.6%	6.4
West Virginia	William Crest Jr.	6'2, 218	FR	11	25	124	0	1	44.0%	1	3.8%	4.2
Arizona State	Mike Bercovici	6'2, 210	SR	289	479	3436	26	9	60.3%	37	7.2%	6.2

Individual Rushing Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate
West Virginia	Wendell Smallwood	RB	5'11, 201	JR	225	1447	9	6.4	4.6	51.1%
West Virginia	Rushel Shell	RB	5'10, 221	JR	152	677	8	4.5	3.4	40.1%
West Virginia	Skyler Howard	QB	6'0, 202	JR	120	661	6	5.5	5.6	40.8%
West Virginia	William Crest Jr.	QB	6'2, 218	FR	19	121	1	6.4	4.6	52.6%
Arizona State	Demario Richard	RB	5'10, 220	SO	200	1084	7	5.4	5.2	39.5%
Arizona State	Kalen Ballage	RB	6'3, 230	SO	113	627	4	5.5	6.3	38.9%
Arizona State	Mike Bercovici	QB	6'2, 210	SR	68	292	6	4.3	3.5	45.6%
Arizona State	D.J. Foster	WR	6'0, 195	SR	52	276	1	5.3	6.2	34.6%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Individual Receiving Stats

Team	Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate
West Virginia	Shelton Gibson	WR	5'11, 188	SO	73	33	744	8	22.6	10.2	45.2%
West Virginia	Daikiel Shorts Jr.	WR	6'1, 200	JR	59	38	414	3	10.9	7.0	64.4%
West Virginia	Jovon Durante	WR	6'1, 180	FR	55	25	395	5	15.8	7.2	45.5%
West Virginia	Jordan Thompson	WR	5'7, 176	SR	43	28	429	0	15.3	10.0	65.1%
West Virginia	Wendell Smallwood	RB	5'11, 201	JR	31	23	155	0	6.7	5.0	74.2%
West Virginia	David Sills	QB	6'3, 198	FR	23	6	116	1	19.3	5.0	26.1%
West Virginia	Rushel Shell	RB	5'10, 221	JR	17	14	99	0	7.1	5.8	82.4%
Arizona State	D.J. Foster	WR	6'0, 195	SR	99	54	544	3	10.1	5.5	54.5%
Arizona State	Devin Lucien	WR	6'2, 195	SR	82	57	930	7	16.3	11.3	69.5%
Arizona State	Tim White	WR	5'11, 185	JR	76	53	554	6	10.5	7.3	69.7%
Arizona State	Kody Kohl	TE	6'3, 235	JR	47	30	334	4	11.1	7.1	63.8%
Arizona State	Demario Richard	RB	5'10, 220	SO	47	30	299	3	10.0	6.4	63.8%
Arizona State	Gary Chambers	WR	6'4, 215	SR	34	24	420	1	17.5	12.4	70.6%
Arizona State	Ellis Jefferson	WR	6'5, 212	SO	25	12	160	0	13.3	6.4	48.0%

Individual Defensive Stats

Team	Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
West Virginia	Nick Kwiatkoski	LB	6'2, 235	SR	68.5	9.8%	10.0	3.0	3	7	1	0
West Virginia	Shaq Petteway	LB	6'0, 230	SR	51.5	7.3%	9.5	3.5	0	2	0	0
West Virginia	Jared Barber	LB	6'0, 232	SR	48.5	6.9%	10.0	2.5	0	0	0	1
West Virginia	Daryl Worley	CB	6'2, 198	JR	47.5	6.8%	2.0	0.0	6	12	2	0
West Virginia	Dravon Askew-Henry	S	5'11, 198	SO	46.5	6.6%	1.0	0.0	1	4	0	0
West Virginia	KJ Dillon	S	6'1, 203	SR	45.0	6.4%	6.5	0.0	2	8	0	0
West Virginia	Kyle Rose	DL	6'4, 294	SR	39.5	5.6%	5.0	4.0	0	0	0	0
West Virginia	Noble Nwachukwu	DL	6'2, 271	JR	37.0	5.3%	13.0	8.5	0	1	1	0
West Virginia	Terrell Chestnut	CB	5'11, 188	SR	33.0	4.7%	1.0	0.0	3	9	2	0
West Virginia	Jarrod Harper	S	6'1, 208	JR	29.5	4.2%	3.0	0.0	0	4	0	0
West Virginia	Christian Brown	DL	6'2, 294	JR	26.0	3.7%	4.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
West Virginia	Edward Muldrow III	LB	6'3, 215	SR	23.5	3.4%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
West Virginia	Al-Rasheed Benton	LB	6'1, 235	SO	17.5	2.5%	4.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Arizona State	Jordan Simone	DB	6'0, 195	SR	82.5	13.1%	9.0	4.0	2	4	0	0
Arizona State	Salamo Fiso	LB	6'0, 230	JR	77.5	12.3%	18.0	3.5	0	2	0	0
Arizona State	Christian Sam	LB	6'1, 240	SO	75.5	12.0%	5.5	3.0	1	2	2	0
Arizona State	Antonio Longino	LB	6'2, 230	SR	53.0	8.4%	19.5	10.0	0	2	1	0
Arizona State	Lloyd Carrington	CB	6'0, 195	SR	47.5	7.5%	2.0	1.0	1	5	0	0
Arizona State	Viliami Laiu Moeakiola	LB	6'1, 215	JR	42.0	6.7%	6.5	2.0	1	5	0	1
Arizona State	Kweishi Brown	DB	6'0, 210	SR	38.0	6.0%	1.0	0.0	2	8	0	0
Arizona State	Tashon Smallwood	DL	6'1, 280	SO	33.0	5.2%	8.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Arizona State	Kareem Orr	DB	5'11, 195	FR	27.5	4.4%	0.5	0.0	5	2	1	0
Arizona State	DJ Calhoun	LB	6'0, 225	SO	21.0	3.3%	6.5	6.5	0	1	0	0
Arizona State	Solomon Means	DB	6'1, 181	SR	18.5	2.9%	1.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Arizona State	JoJo Wicker	DL	6'3, 275	FR	14.5	2.3%	6.5	4.0	0	0	2	0
Arizona State	Ismael Murphy-Richardson	LB	6'4, 230	FR	13.5	2.1%	2.5	2.5	0	1	0	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Individual Special Teams Stats

Team	Punter	Ht, Wt	Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
West Virginia	Nick O'Toole	6'3, 228	SR	65	45.7	14	18	20	58.5%
Arizona State	Matt Haack	6'1, 199	JR	67	43.3	0	13	27	59.7%
Arizona State	Mike Bercovici	6'2, 210	SR	3	35.7	0	0	3	100.0%

Team	Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	TB%	OOB	Fair Catches	Onside Att	Onside Success
West Virginia	Nick O'Toole	6'3, 228	SR	67	62.4	17	25.4%	0	3	0	0
West Virginia	Mike Molina	5'8, 175	SO	7	63.6	3	42.9%	0	0	0	0
Arizona State	Zane Gonzalez	6'1, 190	JR	79	64.6	59	74.7%	0	1	0	0

Team	Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	Year	PAT	FG	Pct
West Virginia	Josh Lambert	5'11, 215	SO	49-49	18-25	72.0%
Arizona State	Zane Gonzalez	6'1, 190	JR	48-48	22-29	75.9%

Team	Kick Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
West Virginia	Jovon Durante	6'1, 180	FR	14	22.6	0	0	0 (0)
West Virginia	Shelton Gibson	5'11, 188	SO	11	32.8	1	0	0 (0)
Arizona State	Tim White	5'11, 185	JR	31	25.6	1	0	2 (0)
Arizona State	De'Chavon Gump Hayes	5'11, 190	JR	9	18.0	0	0	1 (1)

Team	Punt Returner	Ht, Wt	Year	Returns	Avg.	TD	Fair Catch	Fumbles (Lost)
West Virginia	Gary Jennings	6'2, 195	FR	12	4.0	0	4	2 (1)
West Virginia	KJ Dillon	6'1, 203	SR	7	7.4	0	7	0 (0)
Arizona State	De'Chavon Gump Hayes	5'11, 190	JR	17	8.4	0	10	0 (0)
Arizona State	Jacom Brimhall	5'8, 185	SO	2	0.0	0	1	2 (0)

_{Stats via SportSource Analytics}