clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

2016 Cactus Bowl advanced stats tale of the tape: Arizona State vs. West Virginia

New, comment
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Motel 6 Cactus Bowl

West Virginia Mountaineers (7-5) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6)

January 02 ( 10:15 PM ET, ESPN ), Chase Field, Phoenix
Spread: Arizona State -1
S&P+ Projection: West Virginia 34.9, Arizona State 24.3
Team Sites: The Smoking Musket, House Of Sparky

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

Statistical profiles index.

Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category West Virginia Arizona State
S&P+ (Rk) 18 61
Category West Virginia offense Arizona State defense Arizona State offense West Virginia defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.51 (56) 5.82 (103) 5.59 (50) 5.09 (47)
Yards per game (Rk) 464.1 (26) 440.2 (103) 478.8 (21) 393.5 (62)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.28 (66) 2.23 (77) 2.32 (60) 1.61 (25)
Category West Virginia offense Arizona State defense Arizona State offense West Virginia defense
S&P+ (Rk) 34.7 (29) 29.9 (79) 33.7 (35) 20.3 (18)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 110.0 (32) 113.8 (26) 99.5 (77) 128.6 (3)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 105.1 (51) 100.3 (67) 103.8 (58) 121.8 (14)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 108.2 (40) 107.8 (36) 102.7 (57) 120.0 (9)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 100.9 (64) 98.5 (76) 97.1 (81) 132.7 (7)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 101.0 (75) 126.8 (11) 94.1 (99) 131.1 (9)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 117.9 (27) 118.1 (22) 98.6 (78) 129.6 (9)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 110.3 (44) 107.8 (44) 102.5 (70) 112.7 (35)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 89.4 (105) 81.3 (123) 114.7 (24) 133.9 (5)
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

West Virginia

  1. Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 4 defense vs. No. 102 offense)
  2. Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 4 defense vs. No. 98 offense)
  3. Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 14 defense vs. No. 99 offense)
  4. Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 4 defense vs. No. 88 offense)
  5. Rushing S&P+ (No. 3 defense vs. No. 77 offense)

Arizona State

  1. Passing Downs Sack Rate (No. 11 defense vs. No. 103 offense)
  2. Adj. Sack Rate (No. 25 defense vs. No. 88 offense)
  3. Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 12 defense vs. No. 62 offense)
  4. Run Stuffs (No. 38 offense vs. No. 85 defense)
  5. Passing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 21 defense vs. No. 67 offense)
Five Factors
Category West Virginia offense Arizona State defense Arizona State offense West Virginia defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.26 (65) 1.44 (123) 1.31 (38) 1.39 (112)
EFFICIENCY 44.8% (31) 38.5% (42) 41.0% (77) 34.0% (11)
FIELD POSITION 30.3 (58) 28.5 (43) 30.3 (57) 28.1 (34)
FINISHING DRIVES 4.8 (63) 5.3 (116) 4.8 (64) 3.9 (19)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
West Virginia 8.05 (13)
Arizona State -6.78 (114)
ACTUAL
West Virginia 11 (11)
Arizona State 0 (65)
Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) West Virginia offense Arizona State offense
Adj. Pace 9.8 (5) 9.7 (6)
Plays per game 84.3 (9) 85.7 (4)
Possessions per game 14.6 (7) 14.7 (6)
Std. Downs Run Rate 62.6% (47) 55.7% (89)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 45.0% (14) 29.5% (82)
% of solo tackles 84.3% (8) 82.8% (13)
Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) West Virginia defense Arizona State defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 59.5% (69) 50.8% (124)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 37.5% (27) 28.2% (113)
Overall Havoc Rate 19.8% (14) 18.4% (29)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 9.9% (56) 12.4% (13)
DB Havoc Rate 9.8% (2) 6.0% (76)
PD to INC 40.4% (10) 26.6% (115)

When West Virginia has the ball…

Standard Downs
West Virginia Offense Arizona State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 108.2 40 107.8 36
Standard Downs Success Rate 49.8 31 42.4 28
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.14 45 1.23 113 West Virginia big
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.42 5 2.46 14
SD Sack Rate 7.9% 113 4.8% 77 Arizona State
Passing Downs
West Virginia Offense Arizona State Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 100.9 64 98.5 76 West Virginia
Passing Downs Success Rate 32.0 55 31.7 80 West Virginia
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.73 77 1.86 111 West Virginia
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.68 24 2.95 43 West Virginia
PD Sack Rate 10% 103 11.8% 11 Arizona State big

When Arizona State has the ball…

Standard Downs
Arizona State Offense West Virginia Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 102.7 57 120.0 9 West Virginia
Standard Downs Success Rate 45.7 80 40.0 11 West Virginia big
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.17 36 1.24 110 Arizona State big
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.09 32 2.83 58 Arizona State
SD Sack Rate 6.8% 99 7.1% 14 West Virginia big
Passing Downs
Arizona State Offense West Virginia Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 97.1 81 132.7 7 West Virginia big
Passing Downs Success Rate 30.3 68 24.1 14 West Virginia big
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.77 63 1.93 91 Arizona State
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.00 87 3.18 62 West Virginia
PD Sack Rate 8.1% 82 5.7% 95 Arizona State
Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
West Virginia Skyler Howard 6'0, 202 JR 193 352 2613 21 12 54.8% 29 7.6% 6.4
West Virginia William Crest Jr. 6'2, 218 FR 11 25 124 0 1 44.0% 1 3.8% 4.2
Arizona State Mike Bercovici 6'2, 210 SR 289 479 3436 26 9 60.3% 37 7.2% 6.2
Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
West Virginia Wendell Smallwood RB 5'11, 201 JR 225 1447 9 6.4 4.6 51.1%
West Virginia Rushel Shell RB 5'10, 221 JR 152 677 8 4.5 3.4 40.1%
West Virginia Skyler Howard QB 6'0, 202 JR 120 661 6 5.5 5.6 40.8%
West Virginia William Crest Jr. QB 6'2, 218 FR 19 121 1 6.4 4.6 52.6%
Arizona State Demario Richard RB 5'10, 220 SO 200 1084 7 5.4 5.2 39.5%
Arizona State Kalen Ballage RB 6'3, 230 SO 113 627 4 5.5 6.3 38.9%
Arizona State Mike Bercovici QB 6'2, 210 SR 68 292 6 4.3 3.5 45.6%
Arizona State D.J. Foster WR 6'0, 195 SR 52 276 1 5.3 6.2 34.6%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.
Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
West Virginia Shelton Gibson WR 5'11, 188 SO 73 33 744 8 22.6 10.2 45.2%
West Virginia Daikiel Shorts Jr. WR 6'1, 200 JR 59 38 414 3 10.9 7.0 64.4%
West Virginia Jovon Durante WR 6'1, 180 FR 55 25 395 5 15.8 7.2 45.5%
West Virginia Jordan Thompson WR 5'7, 176 SR 43 28 429 0 15.3 10.0 65.1%
West Virginia Wendell Smallwood RB 5'11, 201 JR 31 23 155 0 6.7 5.0 74.2%
West Virginia David Sills QB 6'3, 198 FR 23 6 116 1 19.3 5.0 26.1%
West Virginia Rushel Shell RB 5'10, 221 JR 17 14 99 0 7.1 5.8 82.4%
Arizona State D.J. Foster WR 6'0, 195 SR 99 54 544 3 10.1 5.5 54.5%
Arizona State Devin Lucien WR 6'2, 195 SR 82 57 930 7 16.3 11.3 69.5%
Arizona State Tim White WR 5'11, 185 JR 76 53 554 6 10.5 7.3 69.7%
Arizona State Kody Kohl TE 6'3, 235 JR 47 30 334 4 11.1 7.1 63.8%
Arizona State Demario Richard RB 5'10, 220 SO 47 30 299 3 10.0 6.4 63.8%
Arizona State Gary Chambers WR 6'4, 215 SR 34 24 420 1 17.5 12.4 70.6%
Arizona State Ellis Jefferson WR 6'5, 212 SO 25 12 160 0 13.3 6.4 48.0%
Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
West Virginia Nick Kwiatkoski LB 6'2, 235 SR 68.5 9.8% 10.0 3.0 3 7 1 0
West Virginia Shaq Petteway LB 6'0, 230 SR 51.5 7.3% 9.5 3.5 0 2 0 0
West Virginia Jared Barber LB 6'0, 232 SR 48.5 6.9% 10.0 2.5 0 0 0 1
West Virginia Daryl Worley CB 6'2, 198 JR 47.5 6.8% 2.0 0.0 6 12 2 0
West Virginia Dravon Askew-Henry S 5'11, 198 SO 46.5 6.6% 1.0 0.0 1 4 0 0
West Virginia KJ Dillon S 6'1, 203 SR 45.0 6.4% 6.5 0.0 2 8 0 0
West Virginia Kyle Rose DL 6'4, 294 SR 39.5 5.6% 5.0 4.0 0 0 0 0
West Virginia Noble Nwachukwu DL 6'2, 271 JR 37.0 5.3% 13.0 8.5 0 1 1 0
West Virginia Terrell Chestnut CB 5'11, 188 SR 33.0 4.7% 1.0 0.0 3 9 2 0
West Virginia Jarrod Harper S 6'1, 208 JR 29.5 4.2% 3.0 0.0 0 4 0 0
West Virginia Christian Brown DL 6'2, 294 JR 26.0 3.7% 4.5 2.0 0 0 0 0
West Virginia Edward Muldrow III LB 6'3, 215 SR 23.5 3.4% 3.0 2.0 0 0 0 0
West Virginia Al-Rasheed Benton LB 6'1, 235 SO 17.5 2.5% 4.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Arizona State Jordan Simone DB 6'0, 195 SR 82.5 13.1% 9.0 4.0 2 4 0 0
Arizona State Salamo Fiso LB 6'0, 230 JR 77.5 12.3% 18.0 3.5 0 2 0 0
Arizona State Christian Sam LB 6'1, 240 SO 75.5 12.0% 5.5 3.0 1 2 2 0
Arizona State Antonio Longino LB 6'2, 230 SR 53.0 8.4% 19.5 10.0 0 2 1 0
Arizona State Lloyd Carrington CB 6'0, 195 SR 47.5 7.5% 2.0 1.0 1 5 0 0
Arizona State Viliami Laiu Moeakiola LB 6'1, 215 JR 42.0 6.7% 6.5 2.0 1 5 0 1
Arizona State Kweishi Brown DB 6'0, 210 SR 38.0 6.0% 1.0 0.0 2 8 0 0
Arizona State Tashon Smallwood DL 6'1, 280 SO 33.0 5.2% 8.5 2.0 0 1 0 0
Arizona State Kareem Orr DB 5'11, 195 FR 27.5 4.4% 0.5 0.0 5 2 1 0
Arizona State DJ Calhoun LB 6'0, 225 SO 21.0 3.3% 6.5 6.5 0 1 0 0
Arizona State Solomon Means DB 6'1, 181 SR 18.5 2.9% 1.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Arizona State JoJo Wicker DL 6'3, 275 FR 14.5 2.3% 6.5 4.0 0 0 2 0
Arizona State Ismael Murphy-Richardson LB 6'4, 230 FR 13.5 2.1% 2.5 2.5 0 1 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.
Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
West Virginia Nick O'Toole 6'3, 228 SR 65 45.7 14 18 20 58.5%
Arizona State Matt Haack 6'1, 199 JR 67 43.3 0 13 27 59.7%
Arizona State Mike Bercovici 6'2, 210 SR 3 35.7 0 0 3 100.0%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
West Virginia Nick O'Toole 6'3, 228 SR 67 62.4 17 25.4% 0 3 0 0
West Virginia Mike Molina 5'8, 175 SO 7 63.6 3 42.9% 0 0 0 0
Arizona State Zane Gonzalez 6'1, 190 JR 79 64.6 59 74.7% 0 1 0 0
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
West Virginia Josh Lambert 5'11, 215 SO 49-49 18-25 72.0%
Arizona State Zane Gonzalez 6'1, 190 JR 48-48 22-29 75.9%
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
West Virginia Jovon Durante 6'1, 180 FR 14 22.6 0 0 0 (0)
West Virginia Shelton Gibson 5'11, 188 SO 11 32.8 1 0 0 (0)
Arizona State Tim White 5'11, 185 JR 31 25.6 1 0 2 (0)
Arizona State De'Chavon Gump Hayes 5'11, 190 JR 9 18.0 0 0 1 (1)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
West Virginia Gary Jennings 6'2, 195 FR 12 4.0 0 4 2 (1)
West Virginia KJ Dillon 6'1, 203 SR 7 7.4 0 7 0 (0)
Arizona State De'Chavon Gump Hayes 5'11, 190 JR 17 8.4 0 10 0 (0)
Arizona State Jacom Brimhall 5'8, 185 SO 2 0.0 0 1 2 (0)

Stats via SportSource Analytics