The big 2015 Georgia State football guide: Luckier, healthier, deeper ... better?

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Not how this was supposed to work

In April 2008, with t's crossed and i's dotted, Georgia State University officially launched a football program. In February 2009, it signed its first recruiting class. And in front of more than 30,000 in the Georgia Dome on September 2, 2010, the Panthers won their first game. Sure, it was against Shorter University, an NAIA club. But with a schedule that featured NAIA teams, FCS teams, and Alabama (!), GSU still went 6-5 under veteran coach Bill Curry.

To that point, it seemed that the feasibility study that determined Georgia State was ready for a football program was prescient, that the school could build a program decent enough to affect school perceptions and admissions. If athletics are a window into your school, football is the biggest pane of glass, and it was easy to see how an investment like this could end up worthwhile.

Since going 6-5, Georgia State is 5-41. Curry led GSU to full-fledged FCS status but went 1-10 in 2012 and retired. Trent Miles, overseer of a ferocious rebuild at Indiana State, took over in time for GSU to move up to FBS, and he's 1-23 in two years. Average attendance in the cavernous Georgia Dome was 15,006 last year, and that's probably generous.

To add insult to injury, GSU's move to FBS prompted rival Georgia Southern to do the same, and in the Eagles' first year, they went 9-3 and won the Sun Belt. In its history, Georgia State has beaten either zero FBS teams or one, depending on whether you count the victory over pre-FBS South Alabama in 2011; Georgia Southern beat eight last year. Hell, Georgia Southern has now beaten more current FBS teams in the Georgia Dome than State has. And Southern fans aren't shy in reminding State fans of this.

Things have gone astray, in other words, and it has begun at the foundation. This past November, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Doug Roberson wrote a three-part "Fixing Georgia State football" series, and the propositions weren't in regard to recruiting, coaching, etc. Part 1 was "you need to donate more money." Part 2 was "you need to lower your admissions standards." Part 3 was "you need to pay attention" and ended with "Do they want it to become a true FBS program, or do they want it to be FBS in name only?"

You don't want to reach a crossroads before you've won your first Sun Belt game, but that's where Georgia State finds itself heading into Miles' third season.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 1-11 | Adj. Record: 2-10 | Final F/+ Rk: 122
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
27-Aug	Abilene Christian	N/A	38-37	W	34%	-9.4	64%
6-Sep	New Mexico State	124	31-34	L	45%	-2.9	52%
13-Sep	Air Force	48	38-48	L	44%	-3.4	7%
20-Sep	at Washington	58	14-45	L	15%	-24.4	0%
4-Oct	at UL-Lafayette	72	31-34	L	33%	-10.3	3%
11-Oct	Arkansas State	66	10-52	L	7%	-34.0	0%
18-Oct	at South Alabama	89	27-30	L	60%	5.7	48%
25-Oct	Georgia Southern	57	31-69	L	17%	-21.8	0%
1-Nov	at Appalachian State	104	0-44	L	3%	-43.7	0%
8-Nov	at Troy	126	21-45	L	6%	-36.1	0%
22-Nov	at Clemson	14	0-28	L	77%	17.6	0%
29-Nov	Texas State	95	31-54	L	21%	-19.1	0%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	25.8	84	37.3	116
Points Per Game	22.7	103	43.3	128

2. That said...

...last year could have been much worse. The Panthers got bitten hard by the injury bug at running back, linebacker, and defensive back, and still managed to craft a decent passing game and play in five games that were decided by 10 or fewer points. They lost to two eventual bowl teams (UL-Lafayette, South Alabama) by three points each on the road, and in terms of percentiles, they played at a 30 percent or higher level on six occasions.

They were unlucky to not win at least one more game. Considering the depth issues at play (not to mention the complete lack of a home crowd advantage), that points to improvement.

On average, the performance dwindled as the season progressed, but with massive depth issues, that is to be expected.

• Average Percentile Performance (September): 35%
• Average Percentile Performance (October): 29%
• Average Percentile Performance (November): 27%

Georgia State returns two quarterbacks with starting experience, its top two receivers, an exciting tight end, seven offensive linemen with starting experience, every defensive lineman, seven of nine linebackers who averaged at least a tackle per game, and every defensive back, not to mention a really good place-kicker.

We'll see if there's actually enough talent for the Panthers to take a step forward, but there are options. And there has also been a bit of a talent upgrade coming from Birmingham.

3. A UAB lifeline

This has been a unique offseason in one area: free agents. The (ridiculous, infuriating, pick your adjective) shuttering of the UAB football program meant that an entire team of players was able to transfer without sitting out a year. Underdog Dynasty created a UAB transfer tracker for those wanting to keep up with who ended up where.

While South Alabama benefited the most -- thus far, nine Blazers will be Jaguars in 2015 -- Georgia State has collected the second most: six. Senior safety Bobby Baker, senior wideout Nyiakki Height, senior center Kelepi Folau, junior linebacker Alonzo McGee, redshirt freshman cornerback Demarco Davis, and redshirt freshman running back Demarcus Kirk will suit up in GSU uniforms.

Of the six, McGee, Height, and Baker (before an injury) played significant minutes for UAB, and Kirk should help fill a position of desperate need. Part of the reason GSU's recruiting ranking was so low in 2015 (123rd via Rivals, 126th via 247 Composite) was that the Panthers signed a small class due to these transfers. The recruiting was far from amazing, but there was deflation because of that. And I'm guessing Miles is totally okay with that trade-off.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.79	97	IsoPPP+	85.6	98
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.7%	88	Succ. Rt. +	94.5	86
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	35.1	123	Def. FP+	92.1	125
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.6	47	Redzone S&P+	106.9	46
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.5		ACTUAL	30	+8.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	88	99	88	101
RUSHING	123	112	87	123
PASSING	26	81	82	81
Standard Downs		106	85	113
Passing Downs		75	88	73

Q1 Rk	102	1st Down Rk	110
Q2 Rk	92	2nd Down Rk	96
Q3 Rk	108	3rd Down Rk	115
Q4 Rk	59

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Nick Arbuckle	6'1, 215	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8233	259	429	3283	23	17	60.4%	30	6.5%	6.8
Ronnie Bell	5'11, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	3	11	29	0	0	27.3%	0	0.0%	2.6
Aaron Winchester	6'2, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7971

4. Passing game? Yessir

Offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski got a quarterback he could use in JUCO transfer Nick Arbuckle last year. After struggling with more of a run-first guy in Ronnie Bell in 2013, GSU turned into the pass-first, pro-style(ish) unit Jagodzinski seems to prefer.

The Panthers were slightly pass-first on standard downs and went all-in on the pass on passing downs, and the results were encouraging. Arbuckle had four exciting weapons in Robert Davis, Donovan Harden, Lynquez Blair, and tight end Joel Ruiz, and three of the four return this fall.

If you saw one Georgia State game last year, it was probably the season-opener against Abilene Christian, a wacky game that officially served as the first FBS game of the season. In that game, Blair came up huge with eight catches for 118 yards. But it was Davis and Harden who became the primary threats. Davis caught four passes for 108 yards in the near-upset of South Alabama, then had six for 117 in the finale against Texas State. Harden peaked in October, catching 28 passes for 458 yards and six scores (four against Georgia Southern) in four games.

Arbuckle should have one of the Sun Belt's better receiving corps at his disposal. Not only are Davis, Harden, and Ruiz back, GSU adds Nyiakki Height to the mix, along with JUCO transfer Kameron Myers and well-touted freshmen Ari Werts and Penny Hart.

He loses two-year starting left tackle A.J. Kaplan, but tackles Taylor Evans, Michael Ivory, and Steve Wolgamott all have good size and starting experience, and GSU added a man-mountain in 6'6, 350-pound JUCO transfer Dom Roldan. The line was only good at one thing -- picking up blitzes -- and despite the loss of two starters, it shouldn't be much worse.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Marcus Caffey	CB	6'0, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8625	94	354	3	3.8	3.4	30.9%	4	2
Gerald Howse	RB					54	157	1	2.9	1.8	27.8%	0	0
Duvall Smith	RB					47	106	3	2.3	5.5	14.9%	1	1
Nick Arbuckle	QB	6'1, 215	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8233	43	177	2	4.1	3.9	37.2%	8	3
Kyler Neal	RB	5'11, 218	Jr.	NR	N/A	40	209	1	5.2	4.5	37.5%	1	1
Krysten Hammon	RB					38	197	2	5.2	5.8	34.2%	2	1
Dontavis Crocker	RB					16	39	0	2.4	1.3	18.8%	0	0
Avery Sweeting	WR					5	41	0	8.2	7.8	60.0%	1	1
Ronnie Bell	QB	5'11, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	5	8	0	1.6	2.8	40.0%	2	2
Jonathan Lytle	FB	6'1, 240	Sr.	NR	N/A	5	2	1	0.4	N/A	0.0%	0	0
Kendrick Dorn	RB	6'0, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7652
Demarcus Kirk	RB	6'0, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7544

5. Run game? Probably won't get worse, at least

Georgia State's passing achievements were impressive on their own; toss in the Panthers' abysmal rushing performance, and the passing game looks even better.

GSU lost three backs to injury last season, and the shuffling was jarring. Leading returning rusher Jonathan Jean-Bart carried twice all year. Second leading returning rusher Kyler Neal carried 40 times in four games. Exciting freshman Krysten Hammon played in two games, Gerald Howse and Duvall Smith in two each. Cornerback Marcus Caffey switched to running back in October and became the No. 1 guy.

One of my go-to lines is that injuries hurt in the present tense and help in the future tense. But while shuffling has led to experience on the line, GSU is starting from scratch again at running back. Jean-Bart, Howse, Smith, and Dontavis Crocker are all done, Hammon was dismissed, and Caffey is supposedly moving back to cornerback. That leaves JUCO transfer Kendrick Dorn and UAB transfer Demarcus Kirk. If they're worth their salt, then the running game could click enough to take the passing game to a new level. But relying on newcomers doesn't always work out, does it?

Jagodzinski was able to coax out some solid efficiency numbers despite the injury issues, and the Panthers still managed to rank 99th in Off. S&P+; there's no reason to think he won't be able to do so again. But if the run game can actually produce a few big plays, then this offense could end up a top-70 or top-80 unit. Such an offense can win you some games in the Sun Belt if your defense isn't atrocious.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Robert Davis	WR	6'3, 198	Jr.	NR	N/A	97	50	732	51.5%	23.5%	55.7%	7.5	99	7.6	92.0
Donovan Harden	WR	5'11, 175	Sr.	NR	N/A	89	60	885	67.4%	21.5%	53.9%	9.9	166	10.1	111.1
Lynquez Blair	WR					69	51	536	73.9%	16.7%	47.8%	7.8	-65	7.2	67.3
Joel Ruiz	TE	6'4, 240	Sr.	NR	N/A	57	39	478	68.4%	13.8%	56.1%	8.4	12	8.4	60.1
Avery Sweeting	WR					36	16	224	44.4%	8.7%	58.3%	6.2	14	6.3	28.1
Nyiakki Height (UAB)	WR	6'1, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7600	25	17	136	68.0%	8.1%	32.0%	5.4	-67	4.2	17.8
Todd Boyd	WR	5'11, 180	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7483	12	8	119	66.7%	2.9%	50.0%	9.9	23	9.8	15.0
Glenn Smith	WR	6'1, 185	So.	NR	N/A	9	7	83	77.8%	2.2%	55.6%	9.2	1	9.0	10.4
Marcus Caffey	RB	6'0, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8625	9	8	38	88.9%	2.2%	44.4%	4.2	-54	3.1	4.8
Keith Rucker	TE	6'3, 235	Jr.	NR	N/A	7	5	32	71.4%	1.7%	85.7%	4.6	-27	5.0	4.0
Duvall Smith	RB					7	4	28	57.1%	1.7%	14.3%	4.0	-21	2.0	3.5
Kyler Neal	RB	5'11, 218	Jr.	NR	N/A	5	5	107	100.0%	1.2%	60.0%	21.4	51	21.0	13.4
Nathaniel Minor	WR	6'2, 180	Sr.	NR	N/A	4	3	16	75.0%	1.0%	25.0%	4.0	-19	4.9	2.0
Bill Teknipp	TE	6'4, 235	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333
Clay Chastain	TE	6'4, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8700
Kameron Myers	WR	5'8, 175	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7300
Ari Werts	TE	6'4, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8037
Penny Hart	WR	5'9, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7891

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	87.5	2.68	2.61	29.3%	59.5%	24.9%	83.0	7.5%	6.9%
Rank	108	101	112	127	113	120	93	111	55

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Tim Wynn	C					33
A.J. Kaplan	LT					24
Alex Stoehr	RG	6'2, 300	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7700	12
Garrett Gorringe	LG	6'4, 295	Jr.	NR		10
Taylor Evans	RT	6'4, 305	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	8
Michael Ivory	LT	6'5, 340	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7400	5
Akil Hawkins	LG	6'2, 282	Jr.	NR	N/A	4
Ronald Martin	C					3
Davis Moore	LG	6'4, 300	So.	2 stars (5.2)	N/A	1
Steve Wolgamott	RT	6'6, 315	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7400	1
Kelepi Folau (UAB)	OL	6'3, 305	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7656	0
Sebastian Willer	LT	6'5, 279	So.	2 stars (5.2)	N/A	0
Jah-Mai Davidson	RG	6'4, 290	Jr.	NR	N/A	0
Tyler Simonsen	OL	6'3, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7800
Dom Roldan	OL	6'6, 350	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7594

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.90	93	IsoPPP+	76.9	117
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	50.7%	123	Succ. Rt. +	79.9	124
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	26.1	125	Off. FP+	93.1	124
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	5.2	122	Redzone S&P+	81.7	121
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	13.5		ACTUAL	8.0	-5.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	119	126	126	120
RUSHING	127	125	126	124
PASSING	19	117	123	110
Standard Downs		125	124	123
Passing Downs		118	125	109

Q1 Rk	125	1st Down Rk	126
Q2 Rk	107	2nd Down Rk	123
Q3 Rk	126	3rd Down Rk	122
Q4 Rk	122

6. Experience won't be an issue

As with the run game, the Georgia State defense got involuntarily shuffled around so much that each week saw a new unit to some degree. Above, I mentioned that nine linebackers and 10 defensive backs averaged at least one tackle per game. Only seven of those played in all 12 games, and four played in four or fewer.

So if you're looking for reasons why GSU could allow 4.9 yards per play to Washington and 4.7 to Clemson but 7.5 to Arkansas State, 8.1 to Texas State, and 9.6 to Georgia Southern, start there. Add in extreme youth, and you've got even more cause for volatility.

It's hard to say how much talent resides on the defensive side, but to the extent that experience was an issue, that's no longer the case. The top five tacklers on the line were sophomores and freshmen; now they're juniors and sophomores. Freshman linebacker Trey Payne and corners Chandon Sullivan and B.J. Clay are now sophomores. Toss in an influx of JUCO transfers and UAB seniors, and GSU's two-deep will feature far more upperclassmen. Size shouldn't be much of an issue either, especially with the addition of big Julien Laurent up front.

So that leaves talent. Does coordinator Jesse Minter's unit have any?

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	81.7	3.52	4.37	46.3%	69.4%	13.1%	66.9	3.5%	3.4%
Rank	124	123	128	124	78	124	113	91	120

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Shawayne Lawrence	DE	6'4, 270	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	N/A	12	39.5	5.4%	3.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Jalen Lawrence	NG	6'1, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7800	12	30.0	4.1%	2.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Tevin Jones	DE	6'4, 270	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	N/A	12	20.0	2.7%	2.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Carnell Hopson	DE	6'2, 268	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	N/A	10	17.5	2.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Will Cunningham	DE	6'1, 280	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	12	8.0	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
David Huey	NG	6'2, 290	Sr.	NR	N/A	12	6.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tanner Strickland	DE	6'3, 270	Jr.	NR	N/A	8	3.5	0.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
DeQueszman Kelley	NG	6'0, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7300
Julien Laurent	NG	6'4, 325	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793

7. Who rushes the passer?

While the rest of the team might have dealt with shuffling, the line did not, and the line was still terribly ineffective. The size was decent for a 3-4 (although you'd like your nose guards close to 300 pounds than 285), but while a 3-4 line isn't asked to make many plays, GSU's line made almost none. And that's not an exaggeration; linemen combined for one sack and 9.5 tackles for loss. That's wretched for a line in any alignment.

That Shawayne Lawrence and Jalen Lawrence each ended up with 30-plus tackles says something about their pursuit, but a No. 124 ranking in Adj. Line Yards and a No. 113 ranking in Adj. Sack Rate tell you the Panthers were lacking up front.

GSU's line stats should see minor improvement simply from experience and depth. Every lineman returns, and GSU added two intriguing JUCO transfers in DeQueszman Kelley and big Laurent. Plus, three intriguing inside linebackers (Joseph Peterson, Trey Payne, and UAB's Alonzo McGee) will fight for two spots and assure a decent level of play.

But what about the OLBs? Peterson (an ILB) and Jarrell Robinson (gone) led the team in sacks last year with a whopping three each. Mackendy Cheridor did have 7.5 tackles for loss (albeit with only one sack) in 2013 before playing an abbreviated season last fall; can he or a newcomer like Kaleb Ringer help to provide a level of disruption that just didn't exist in 2014?

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Joseph Peterson	ILB	6'0, 225	Sr.	NR	N/A	10	79.5	10.8%	4.0	3.0	1	1	1	0
Trey Payne	ILB	6'0, 230	So.	2 stars (5.3)	N/A	11	72.0	9.8%	6.5	1.0	0	0	1	0
Sean Jeppesen	ILB					12	44.0	6.0%	2.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Alonzo McGee (UAB)	LB	6'1, 220	Sr.	NR	N/A	10	36.0	5.6%	5.0	1.0	0	1	1	0
Jarrell Robinson	OLB					12	35.5	4.8%	8.0	3.0	0	1	0	0
Melvin King	OLB	6'3, 225	Sr.	NR	N/A	11	19.0	2.6%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Jameel Spencer	ILB	6'1, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7600	12	13.0	1.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Mackendy Cheridor	LB	6'5, 250	Jr.	NR	N/A	4	10.5	1.4%	1.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
James Traylor	LB	6'3, 220	So.	NR	N/A	4	4.5	0.6%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Nate Paxton	LB	6'1, 245	Sr.	NR	N/A	10	4.0	0.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Spencer Haywood	OLB				N/A	12	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Malik Ricks	LB	6'1, 230	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8107	6	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kaleb Ringer	LB	6'0, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7883
Chase Middleton	LB	6'2, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8167
Charlie Patrick	LB	6'0, 215	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7856

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tarris Batiste	S	6'1, 210	Sr.	NR	N/A	11	72.0	9.8%	5.5	1	0	3	0	0
Bruce Dukes	CB	5'10, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8453	12	53.0	7.2%	2	0	0	6	1	0
Nate Simon	S	6'1, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7300	9	43.5	5.9%	3	0	0	3	0	0
Chandon Sullivan	CB	5'11, 180	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7483	12	38.0	5.2%	0.5	0	1	1	0	0
Dartez Jacobs	S	6'1, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	12	23.5	3.2%	2	1	0	0	0	0
LaDarion Young (2013)	S	6'1, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8000	7	18.5	2.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Robert Dowling	CB	5'10, 185	Jr.	NR	0.7000	12	17.5	2.4%	1.5	1	0	1	0	0
Bobby Baker (UAB)	S	6'2, 190	Sr.	NR	N/A	3	17.0	2.6%	1	0	1	0	0	0
B.J. Clay	CB	6'0, 180	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	10	15.0	2.0%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Bryan Williams	S	6'3, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	N/A	3	11.0	1.5%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Marcus Caffey	CB	6'0, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8625	11	9.0	1.2%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Trent Hill	S	5'10, 185	Jr.	NR	N/A	10	8.0	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Antreal Allen	CB	5'11, 180	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8211	8	6.0	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ronald Peterkin	S	6'0, 170	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7594
Jerome Smith	CB	5'10, 165	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7200
Cloves Campbell	DB	6'1, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7200
Demarco Davis (UAB)	CB	5'11, 175	RSFr.	NR	N/A
Malliek Jackson	S	5'11, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956

8. The Jackée formation

If Minter were to build a defense based around his best players, he might end up with something like a 2-2-7 alignment. (Get it? 227? Jackée? Get it? Get it? Granted, that show was based in DC and not Atlanta...)

Sure, the Lawrences up front are intriguing, as are the inside linebackers and maybe Cheridor. But between senior safeties Tarris Batiste, Nate Simon, Dartez Jacobs, and now Bobby Backer, plus active corner Bruce Dukes, JUCO transfer Cloves Campbell, speedy UAB transplant Demarco Davis, and other newcomers, the talent in the secondary is disproportional to the number of defensive backs who will actually see the field.

If the front seven can give this unit any support, good things could come. Either way, it's the least of Minter's worries.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Matt Hubbard			33	34.9	2	12	6	54.5%
Wil Lutz	6'0, 190	Sr.	27	39.2	2	7	3	37.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Wil Lutz	6'0, 190	Sr.	50	59.0	19	2	38.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Wil Lutz	6'0, 190	Sr.	35-35	5-5	100.0%	2-3	66.7%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Avery Sweeting	KR			19	20.8	0
Glenn Smith	KR	6'1, 185	So.	13	18.5	0
Donovan Harden	PR	5'11, 175	Sr.	7	11.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	115
Field Goal Efficiency	4
Punt Return Efficiency	113
Kick Return Efficiency	79
Punt Efficiency	113
Kickoff Efficiency	115
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	115

9. Hell of a kicker, at least

Field goals don't matter as much when you are giving up 40 points per game, but as Georgia State gets more competitive, Will Lutz's automatic place-kicking could become more of an asset. Now GSU just needs to work on all the other aspects of special teams -- coverage, returns, etc.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rank
3-Sep	Charlotte	NR
19-Sep	at Oregon	3
3-Oct	Liberty	NR
?	Appalachian State	104
?	South Alabama	89
?	Troy	126
?	UL-Lafayette	72
?	at Arkansas State	66
?	at Georgia Southern	57
?	at New Mexico State	124
?	at Texas State	95

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-43.2% (123)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	122 / 128
2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-22 / -8.1
2014 TO Luck/Game	-5.8
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	18 (8, 10)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	1.7 (-0.7)

10. Start by beating Charlotte

(Note: only 11 opponents are listed above because a 12th, UAB, isn't going to be able to make it to the Georgia Dome as planned, and GSU has yet to find another opponent.)

With one of the younger rosters in the country, Georgia State lost nearly every running back, linebacker, and defensive back to injury at one point or another* and "lost" nearly six points per game to turnovers luck in a season that saw them go 1-4 in games decided by 10 or fewer points. Plus, some of their best performances (Clemson, Washington, Air Force) came against their best opponents.

The Panthers nearly upset UL-Lafayette and South Alabama on the road, outscored Air Force over the final three quarters, held Washington scoreless in the first half, and held Clemson scoreless in the second half. The Panthers weren't ready to be good, but if you're looking for reasons why they ranked ahead of both NMSU and Troy in the countdown -- two teams that beat them -- that's a good place to start.

* One thing that bears mentioning: injuries are mostly random, but if GSU's weight room and training facilities are lacking compared to most of FBS, that might suggest that the Panthers could be more susceptible to injury.

So how good can GSU be if fate deals a better hand? Well, the passing game could be downright strong, and the run game and secondary could be competent, especially if newcomers are ready to roll. The defensive front seven, though bigger, more experienced, and deeper, is going to assure that GSU probably cannot climb out of the FBS bottom 30.

But with a schedule that features home games against Charlotte, Liberty, and Troy, plus a potentially winnable road game against NMSU, the Panthers will at least have a chance to climb out of the SBC cellar. And the season opener against FBS newcomer Charlotte offers an immediate opportunity to end that FBS losing streak. Better not lose that one.

That might not be enough to send crowds flocking to the Georgia Dome, but there's no quick fix. Miles just has to hope he can keep putting some pieces together.