The big 2015 South Alabama football guide: USA + UAB = Jagzers

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1. The hard part's over. Now here comes the hard part.

Ten years ago, Ladd Peebles Stadium was the home of the Senior Bowl, a young bowl game, and some concerts. That's not a bad lot in life, certainly. Built in the late-1940s, the stadium had hosted plenty of college football games -- one Alabama game per year in the 1950s and 1960s, some Auburn games, some Southern Miss games -- and was outfitted with new field turf in 2004. It just didn't have a home team.

Seven years ago, the University of South Alabama decided to give it one. It added football, hired Mobile native, former Bama receiver, and Birmingham-Southern head coach Joey Jones, and started building the Jaguars.

USA beat Hargrave Military Academy in its first organized game in 2009, won 17 games as basically an unclassified program over the next two years, then went 6-4 in 2011 as an FCS independent. The Jaguars beat their first established FBS program, Florida Atlantic, in double overtime during a 2-11 campaign in 2012, then rode a feisty defense to 6-6 in 2013. They were not selected for a bowl that year, but after a second straight 6-6 campaign, they became the youngest program to go bowling when they accepted an invitation to the inaugural Camellia Bowl in Montgomery.

(And what a bowl it was, with dramatic late bombs and a kick to the coach's nose.)

Jones has been there every step of the way. He was inducted into Mobile's sports hall of fame four years ago, and he has amassed a 37-28 career record at USA. He has laid the foundation and built the house. His initial recruiting class has used up its eligibility. He has bowled.

He has checked all the boxes -- even the "hire an assistant from Bama" box (UA director of player personnel Tyler Siskey is now USA's receivers coach) -- and done all the grunt work it takes to get an FBS program in Alabama off of the ground. And unlike a certain now-defunct program in Birmingham, it appears Jones' program has the institutional support required to live.

And now here comes the hard part: maintenance. USA must replace its starting quarterback, two leading rushers, two leading receivers, three multi-year starting offensive linemen, three leading tacklers on the defensive line, three leading tacklers at linebacker, and three of five leading tacklers in the secondary. This is a blood transfusion, one that will test South Alabama's staying power.

Jones has recruited well, and he's proven himself as a head coach. I'm reasonably optimistic that he'll be able to maintain despite some impressive turnover. But it's a test he'll have to pass. Perhaps luckily for him, USA stands to gain more than anybody else from UAB's demise three and a half hours up I-65 in Birmingham.

2. Jagzers

A unique recruiting class could keep things moving. Jones signed only 11 high school prospects but supplemented those with 11 transfers -- four from junior colleges (including three-star prospects like former Illinois running back Dami Ayoola, receiver Tyrone Williams, and lineman Curtis Williams), and seven from UAB.

Former Blazers starting quarterback Cody Clement is now a Jaguar. Running back D.J. Vinson gained more yards than any USA returnee, and Josh Magee and Gerald Everett immediately becomes USA's second-most proven receiver and tight end, respectively. Two-year starting offensive tackle Cameron Blankenship joins the mix, as does another lineman (sophomore Lee Dufour) who started a couple of games for UAB late in 2014.

It is conceivable that as many as six offensive starters will be former Blazers. Jones also hired former UAB offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent and tight ends coach Richard Jones.

This all makes sense. Combine UAB's 2014 offense with USA's defense, and you'd have a top-60 team. There will still be issues relating to continuity and defensive experience, but UAB's exit has thrown South Alabama a lifeline.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-7 | Adj. Record: 6-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 89
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
6-Sep	at Kent State	107	23-13	W	66%	9.9	93%
13-Sep	Mississippi State	13	3-35	L	7%	-34.6	0%
20-Sep	Georgia Southern	57	6-28	L	18%	-21.0	0%
27-Sep	at Idaho	112	34-10	W	84%	23.7	100%
4-Oct	at Appalachian State	104	47-21	W	97%	43.0	100%
18-Oct	Georgia State	122	30-27	W	24%	-16.6	52%
24-Oct	Troy	126	27-13	W	78%	18.2	99%
1-Nov	at UL-Lafayette	72	9-19	L	36%	-8.6	15%
8-Nov	at Arkansas State	66	10-45	L	3%	-43.5	0%
15-Nov	Texas State	95	24-20	W	73%	14.4	84%
22-Nov	at South Carolina	38	12-37	L	8%	-32.8	0%
28-Nov	Navy	44	40-42	L	56%	3.5	49%
20-Dec	vs. Bowling Green	98	28-33	L	43%	-4.3	49%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	24.5	94	27.3	57
Points Per Game	22.5	105	26.4	61

3. Up, down, up, down, up, down

South Alabama graded out slightly better than Texas State, but the two teams had similar season trajectories; both had drastically different performances from week to week thanks to one consistently solid unit and one unpredictably bad one.

Whereas Texas State's offense was occasionally awesome, USA's defense was the money unit. The Jags got torched by three good offenses -- Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Navy combined to average 38 points per game and 7.6 yards per play -- and controlled everybody else to the tune of 22.9 points per game and 5.1 yards per play. They were decent down to down but had one of the nation's best red zone defenses (12th in Redzone S&P+), which helped to bail them out of some jams. (Georgia Southern and UL-Lafayette each averaged better than 6.1 yards per play but scored just 47 points combined.)

The offense had its moments, but not nearly enough of them.

• South Alabama offense, first 3 games: 10.7 points per game, 4.2 yards per play
• South Alabama offense, next 4 games: 34.5 points per game, 6.4 yards per play
• South Alabama offense, next 5 games: 25.3 points per game, 4.6 yards per play

The offense was problematic enough despite seniors atop the depth chart at quarterback, running back, and receiver that Jones didn't wait around. He dismissed offensive coordinator Robert Matthews and not only brought UAB's Vincent aboard, but handed Vincent the reins for the Camellia Bowl.

Vincent's throw-caution-to-the-wind game plan against Bowling Green probably wasn't exactly what we'll see this fall, but the fact that he was calling the plays that quickly says a lot about both USA's problems and the confidence Jones has in Vincent, whom he has called a "complete football coach."

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.79	99	IsoPPP+	84.1	105
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.9%	71	Succ. Rt. +	90.3	109
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	31.4	97	Def. FP+	96.0	108
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	101	Redzone S&P+	80.2	123
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.4		ACTUAL	28	+10.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	87	107	112	105
RUSHING	53	113	108	113
PASSING	96	92	107	87
Standard Downs		118	117	118
Passing Downs		72	87	70

Q1 Rk	105	1st Down Rk	107
Q2 Rk	124	2nd Down Rk	118
Q3 Rk	102	3rd Down Rk	93
Q4 Rk	91

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Brandon Bridge					160	307	1927	15	8	52.1%	23	7.0%	5.3
Hunter Vaughn	6'2, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	38	59	342	1	6	64.4%	3	4.8%	5.1
Matt Floyd	6'2, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8100	19	44	264	0	3	43.2%	4	8.3%	5.1
Cody Clements (UAB)	6'2, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8042	183	275	2227	14	7	66.5%	23	7.7%	7.1
Austin Chipoletti (UAB)	5'11, 190	So.	2 stars (5.3)	NR
Evan Orth (UAB)	6'3, 195	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR

4. Hello, Cody

Brandon Bridge had his moments last year. He rushed for 71 yards against Idaho and 137 against Georgia State, and he completed 19 of 28 passes for 339 yards against Appalachian State and threw for four touchdowns against Navy.

But he suffered an ankle injury against UL-Lafayette and missed a couple of games, and when he was bad, he was really bad. He went 2-for-11 against a bad South Carolina defense, and his completion rate for the season was 52 percent. He was USA's first starting quarterback in a bowl, which assures him a place in the Jaguars' history books, but Cody Clements almost certainly represents an upgrade at QB.

Originally a JUCO signee, Clements put up some impressive numbers in his one season playing for Bill Clark and Vincent in Birmingham. He completed two-thirds of his passes, and in a two-week span against Western Kentucky and North Texas, he was incredible: 40-for-48, 620 yards, five touchdowns, one pick. He was held in check by good Louisiana Tech and Marshall defenses, but he still impressed. His efficiency could give this offense a huge boost; Vincent likes to employ a fast tempo, and while deep balls are great, moving the chains and racing to the line to snap again can have a cumulative effect.

Quarterbacks like playing for Vincent, evidently. Not only did Clements follow him to Mobile, so did backups Austin Chipoletti and Evan Orth. Even though Clements is a senior, there's a chance USA's starter will be a UAB transplant for years to come.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
D.J. Vinson (UAB)	RB	5'10, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8093	166	670	9	4.0	3.5	36.1%	1	1
Kendall Houston	RB					139	705	2	5.1	4.5	37.4%	2	2
Jay Jones	RB					83	393	3	4.7	3.3	41.0%	0	0
Xavier Johnson	RB	5'11, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7781	81	438	1	5.4	3.3	49.4%	2	1
Brandon Bridge	QB					78	473	4	6.1	7.4	44.9%	5	5
Terrance Timmons	RB	5'7, 180	Sr.	NR	N/A	75	403	4	5.4	4.2	42.7%	0	0
Hunter Vaughn	QB	6'2, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	N/A	22	70	0	3.2	2.1	31.8%	1	1
Berron Tyson	RB	5'8, 175	So.	NR	N/A	11	56	2	5.1	3.6	54.5%	1	0
Matt Floyd	QB	6'2, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8100	9	7	0	0.8	2.5	11.1%	1	1
Dami Ayoola	RB	5'10, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8131

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Shavarez Smith	WR-Z					99	54	748	54.5%	25.3%	58.6%	7.6	73	7.6	75.2
Jereme Jones	WR-A					70	36	338	51.4%	17.9%	57.1%	4.8	-118	4.8	34.0
Danny Woodson II	WR-X	6'1, 200	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9182	54	30	382	55.6%	13.8%	46.3%	7.1	9	7.7	38.3
Josh Magee (UAB)	WR	5'10, 170	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8039	35	18	342	51.4%	11.3%	48.6%	9.8	114	8.7	44.7
Wes Saxton	TE					34	20	155	58.8%	8.7%	64.7%	4.6	-91	4.5	15.6
Braedon Bowman	TE	6'4, 220	Sr.	NR	N/A	28	18	234	64.3%	7.1%	64.3%	8.4	16	9.1	23.5
Gerald Everett (UAB)	TE	6'3, 215	Sr.	NR	N/A	24	18	304	75.0%	7.7%	37.5%	12.7	92	14.9	39.8
Marvin Shinn	WR	6'2, 210	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9663	22	7	173	31.8%	5.6%	63.6%	7.9	72	7.4	17.4
Terrance Timmons	RB	5'7, 180	Sr.	NR	N/A	20	11	113	55.0%	5.1%	50.0%	5.7	-24	5.4	11.3
Cameron Broadnax	WR-A	6'2, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7700	17	10	95	58.8%	4.3%	35.3%	5.6	-28	7.2	9.5
Claude Garrett	WR-Z	6'2, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7741	15	8	151	53.3%	3.8%	20.0%	10.1	51	10.3	15.2
Jay Jones	RB					7	7	49	100.0%	1.8%	71.4%	7.0	-30	6.9	4.9
Kendall Houston	RB					6	5	18	83.3%	1.5%	66.7%	3.0	-40	3.4	1.8
Xavier Johnson	RB	5'11, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7781	6	4	13	66.7%	1.5%	83.3%	2.2	-35	1.5	1.3
Jake Howton	WR-X					5	1	10	20.0%	1.3%	80.0%	2.0	-7	1.4	1.0
DeMarrion Buford-Hughes	TE	6'5, 225	Sr.	NR	N/A	2	1	18	50.0%	0.5%	0.0%	9.0	5	N/A	1.8
Tyrone Williams	WR	6'2, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8117
James Bynes	TE	6'3, 230	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752

5. Toys in the toy box

It's a lot easier to deal with turnover when you're turning over a bad offense. Yes, Kendall Houston and Jay Jones had their moments at running back. So did Shavarez Smith and Jereme Jones at wideout. That's a lot of experience to lose. But at first glance, the combination of transfers and returnees should provide a similar level of talent and production.

If efficiency is the name of the game for USA, the combination of D.J. Vinson and Xavier Johnson could be quite effective in the backfield. Johnson's 49 percent opportunity rate (meaning 49 percent of his carries gained at least five yards) was remarkable considering he was a freshman and his fellow backs couldn't top 41 percent. Plus, Dami Ayoola hinted at some efficient running with Illinois in 2012.

If the ground game becomes an efficient one, Clements could find quite a few big-play guys downfield in the passing game. Two former Alabama signees -- Danny Woodson II (who erupted in the bowl with six catches for 122 yards) and Marvin Shinn (who was incredibly all-or-nothing) -- have athleticism to burn, and the two UAB transplants, Josh Magee and Gerald Everett, combined to average 17.9 yards per catch and 10.9 yards per target. Throw in a couple JUCO transfers, and you've got about as much experience as one could hope for after losing three of top four targets.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	97.3	3.14	3.46	41.3%	60.7%	18.2%	81.5	6.7%	5.6%
Rank	85	39	45	39	109	49	96	100	36

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Ucambre Williams	LT					28	2014 2nd All-Sun Belt
Melvin Meggs	RG					45
Drew Dearman	LG					34
Chris May	RT	6'5, 290	Sr.	NR	N/A	32
Cameron Blankenship (UAB)	OL	6'5, 285	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7659	24
Joseph Scelfo	C	6'1, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	N/A	13
Steven Foster	RG	6'4, 310	Jr.	2 stars	N/A	2
Lee Dufour (UAB)	OL	6'4, 285	So.	2 stars (5.4)	N/A	2
Harrison Louden	C	6'3, 290	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956	1
Clay Machen	LT	6'4, 310	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8157	0
Shane Doty	LG					0
John Dombrowski	RT	6'5, 275	Jr.	NR	N/A	0
Curtis Williams	OL	6'4, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8100
De'Arius Young	OL	6'7, 310	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7783
Troy Thingstad	OL	6'5, 275	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8256
Zach Davis	OL	6'7, 250	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8200

6. Lots to replace up front

USA has to replace both starting guards and an all-conference tackle; the three combined for nine years' worth of starts on a unit that overachieved compared to the rest of the offense. This is a problem, especially for an offense that needs efficiency to establish tempo.

Thanks to injuries and UAB transfers, there's still experience. Chris May, Cam Blankenship, and Joseph Scelfo have combined for 69 career starts, and three others have started at least once.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.88	84	IsoPPP+	109.1	46
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.5%	45	Succ. Rt. +	111.9	27
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.9	73	Off. FP+	100.0	65
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.1	39	Redzone S&P+	122.5	12
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.7		ACTUAL	21.0	-1.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	67	36	29	46
RUSHING	89	39	40	43
PASSING	41	38	29	54
Standard Downs		28	18	36
Passing Downs		58	75	56

Q1 Rk	44	1st Down Rk	46
Q2 Rk	42	2nd Down Rk	49
Q3 Rk	42	3rd Down Rk	45
Q4 Rk	22

7. The toy box is pretty empty

USA's identity could change in a single offseason. Last year's bad unit has gotten a massive boost. But the defense is starting over. South Alabama had one of the nation's more efficient defenses when it came to forcing passing downs, and again, the Jags were vicious in the red zone.

To the extent that USA's success was a product of coaching, the quality could remain high. USA lost defensive coordinator Kevin Sherrer following some lovely play in 2013, but inside linebackers coach Travis Pearson moved up to the coordinator role, and there was little dropoff. Pearson's back, and for all of the turnover on offense, the defensive staff remains intact.

Plus, a few experienced hands have come to help: JUCO transfer Quinton Lane and UAB linebacker Kalen Jackson, to name two. Jackson had a promising start to 2014 before he was lost for the season to injury.

Still, USA's success could hinge on whether the offense can improve enough to offset some inevitable defensive regression. That'll be easier to do if USA only regresses and doesn't fall off of a cliff.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	98.8	2.92	3.86	39.6%	57.6%	17.7%	109	7.2%	5.4%
Rank	67	64	117	77	14	91	44	19	102

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jesse Kelley	NT					13	37.0	4.8%	6.5	5.0	0	2	1	0
Theo Rich	JACK					13	36.0	4.7%	13.0	8.0	0	2	0	0
Jerome McClain	DT					13	33.5	4.3%	3.0	2.5	0	0	0	0
Jimmie Gipson III	DE	6'0, 255	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7844	13	20.0	2.6%	6.0	3.0	0	2	1	0
Akeem Lewis	DE	6'2, 250	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7744	12	18.0	2.3%	2.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Ridge James	JACK				N/A	11	17.5	2.3%	1.0	0.5	0	0	1	0
Caleb Butler	DT	6'4, 250	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7533	11	10.0	1.3%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tre Alford	NT	5'10, 295	So.	NR	N/A	13	7.0	0.9%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
DeMarion Harper	DT	6'3, 285	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7800	7	4.0	0.5%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Jeffrey Whatley	DE	6'1, 265	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Maleki Harris	SAM				N/A	12	72.0	9.3%	9.0	1.0	1	6	4	0
Davin Hawkins	MIKE				N/A	10	47.5	6.2%	3.0	1.0	0	3	0	0
Desmond LaVelle	MIKE				N/A	13	36.0	4.7%	3.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Demarius Rancifer	SAM	6'4, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8475	11	26.5	3.4%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kalen Jackson (UAB)	LB	6'1, 205	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333	2	6.5	1.0%	1.0	1.0	1	2	0	0
Grant Powell	LB	6'2, 215	Jr.	2 stars	N/A	10	6.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Steven Fuller	LB				N/A	13	5.5	0.7%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Andrew Philon	LB	5'11, 225	Sr.	NR	N/A	10	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Cordivido Grice	LB	6'0, 220	Sr.	NR	N/A	2	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tavon Cox	LB	6'3, 195	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8336

8. The new playmakers

We'll find out quickly if USA's recruiting has been up to snuff in the front seven. Of the 10 Jaguars with at least 10 tackles for loss last season, two are back, and one (Roman Buchanan) is a safety. End Jimmie Gipson III is a keeper, Kalen Jackson really could be impressive if healthy, and Demarius Rancifer is a great athlete at linebacker. But younger players like sophomore tackle Caleb Butler and three-star freshman (per Composite) Tavon Cox could be thrust into important positions.

USA had a strange defense -- better at rushing the passer on standard downs than passing downs, great at stuffing short-yardage runs but a bit reactive in run defense. The Jaguars had enough athleticism to pull off what was basically an Alabama approach to the 3-4 defense (swarm to the ball, hit hard, pick your spots with blitzes). We'll see if they still do.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Terrell Brigham	FS					13	91.0	11.8%	4	1	0	7	1	0
Roman Buchanan	SS	6'2, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8056	13	59.5	7.7%	3.5	0	0	7	1	0
Montell Garner	CB					13	51.0	6.6%	4.5	1	2	9	2	0
Antonio Carter	NB	5'8, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	N/A	12	46.0	6.0%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Qudarius Ford	CB				N/A	8	31.5	4.1%	1	1	0	5	1	0
E.J. May	CB	5'10, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	N/A	13	21.0	2.7%	0.5	0	1	2	0	0
Devon Earl	NB	5'10, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8016	12	20.0	2.6%	1.5	0	1	1	0	0
Jeremy Reaves	FS	5'11, 180	So.	NR	N/A	13	15.0	1.9%	0	0	0	1	1	0
Margo Reed	CB	5'7, 165	Sr.	NR	N/A	9	8.0	1.0%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Terrance Slaughter	S				N/A	12	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nigel Green	S	6'1, 170	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8233
Malcolm Buggs	CB	5'9, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8062
Darian Mills	CB	5'11, 170	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7556
Quinton Lane	CB	6'1, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7911
Jalen Thompson	CB	6'0, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8514
Nigel Lawrence	DB	5'11, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8126
JarMarkus Sims	S	6'1, 210	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8091
Jesse Boggs	S	6'2, 205	Fr.	NR	0.8200

9. Some young guns will need to come through

Keeping in mind that a recruiting rating of 0.8000 means, on average, a three-star designation in the Composite ratings, eight Jaguar defensive backs above have been rated at 0.8016 or higher, and a ninth came in at 0.7911. That's awfully impressive for a Sun Belt team.

The problem: only two of those 10 players have really seen action. One (junior safety Roman Buchanan) is an outright keeper, and another (last year's backup nickel back Devon Earl) made a few nice plays when given the opportunity. But USA must replace both starting cornerbacks and free safety Terrell Brigham, and with a potential drop in the front seven, unproven players like redshirt freshman Malcolm Buggs, JUCO transfer Quinton Lane, and star freshman Jalen Thompson might be asked to do quite a bit early.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Brandon McKee	6'1, 185	Jr.	73	42.3	8	18	28	63.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Aleem Sunanon	5'7, 170	Jr.	64	53.8	10	1	15.6%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Aleem Sunanon	5'7, 170	Jr.	24-26	10-12	83.3%	5-6	83.3%
Grant McLaurin	6'0, 165	Sr.	6-7	3-5	60.0%	1-1	100.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
T.J. Glover	KR			28	22.9	0
Claude Garrett	KR	6'2, 210	Sr.	3	23.3	0
Jereme Jones	PR			6	11.5	0
T.J. Glover	PR			6	2.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	68
Field Goal Efficiency	53
Punt Return Efficiency	59
Kick Return Efficiency	83
Punt Efficiency	46
Kickoff Efficiency	98
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	16

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rk
5-Sep	Gardner-Webb	NR
12-Sep	at Nebraska	30
19-Sep	at San Diego State	76
26-Sep	N.C. State	55
?	Appalachian State	104
?	Arkansas State	66
?	Idaho	112
?	UL-Lafayette	72
?	at Georgia Southern	57
?	at Georgia State	122
?	at Texas State	95
?	at Troy	126

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-18.2% (97)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	107 / 100
2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-7 / 5.3
2014 TO Luck/Game	-4.7
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	7 (3, 4)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	6.4 (-0.4)

10. An understandable drop ... probably

Looking strictly at losses and the schedule, it's hard to imagine South Alabama reaching another bowl. The Jaguars are one of only three FBS teams to return fewer than nine starters, and the defense has to replace so many playmakers. Plus, the dead weight on the schedule is minimal: only four teams ranked worse than 104th in the F/+ ratings last year, while six ranked 76th or better. Unless USA can put a top-80 team on the field -- which means not only surviving turnover, but improving despite it -- getting to six wins is going to be difficult.

And that's fine. Joey Jones has done enough great things in Mobile to have earned a reset year. He has been recruiting (and coaching) well enough that the program's trajectory is strong even if 2015 is a setback.

Still, the starry-eyed improvement scenario -- the UAB transplants lead to significant offensive improvement, and a proven set of defensive coaches turn excellent athletes into excellent defenders -- isn't unrealistic. Despite being one of FBS' youngest programs, USA seems to have a high floor for a Sun Belt squad. Expect something around 5-7, but don't be too surprised with 7-5, especially if USA can pull an upset of N.C. State on September 26.