The big 2015 Arkansas State football guide: Red Wolves finally kept their head coach!

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Managing change

On paper, they improved. That's amazing.

Technically, Arkansas State's win total dropped by one game as the Red Wolves took the field with their fifth head coach in five years. They suffered their share of frustrating losses, falling to five decent teams by an average of 18 points and dropping a tight home contest against Appalachian State. And they probably caught Utah State at just the right time, topping the Aggies by seven points in the direct aftermath of another USU quarterback injury. There's plenty of room for improvement, in other words.

But still, using the new F/+ ratings, Arkansas State improved from 76th in 2013 to 66th. Considering the value of continuity in college football, that is an absurd achievement. Now, as the Red Wolves prepare for their first two-year span with the same coach since 2009-10 (!), consistency could feed continuity.

In each annual coaching carousel, you read about a school valuing loyalty, perhaps considering a guy who will stay over one with a higher likelihood of short-run success. Considering Arkansas State the poster children for why "he'll stay" doesn't need to be on your list of requirements.

A perfect-world preference? Sure. But if your athletic director has a system, if the community and athletic department provide support, if you have a good eye for talent, and if you have all your ducks in a row, ASU proves that you can survive change. If you hire a good coach and he leaves after succeeding, you hire another good coach.

(That ASU pulled off this string of good hires despite undergoing an athletic director change in 2013 is even more incredible.)

So many aspects of a coaching search are random. There's a reason I find myself typing "coaching searches are enormous tossups, and you shouldn't dump a coach unless you absolutely have to" about 25 times over the course of this preview series. But ASU proves ambition and a good eye can give you better odds than others.

Blake Anderson's second season in charge brings high expectations, and we'll find out if he is of the caliber of the last three coaches, all of whom won at ASU, then went on to win elsewhere (Hugh Freeze to Ole Miss, Gus Malzahn to Auburn, and Bryan Harsin to Boise State). But at this point, with what the Red Wolves have survived, would you have any reason not to trust them to win games and play a role in the Sun Belt race? Especially with so many offensive starters back?

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 6-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 66
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	Montana State	N/A	37-10	W	82%	21.6	100%
6-Sep	at Tennessee	24	19-34	L	39%	-6.7	30%
13-Sep	at Miami	31	20-41	L	8%	-32.8	0%
20-Sep	Utah State	52	21-14	W	48%	-1.3	35%
4-Oct	UL-Monroe	97	28-14	W	71%	12.9	97%
11-Oct	at Georgia State	122	52-10	W	87%	25.8	100%
21-Oct	at UL-Lafayette	72	40-55	L	15%	-24.7	2%
1-Nov	at Idaho	112	44-28	W	50%	-0.1	88%
8-Nov	South Alabama	89	45-10	W	96%	41.2	100%
15-Nov	Appalachian State	104	32-37	L	53%	1.6	56%
20-Nov	at Texas State	95	27-45	L	15%	-23.9	3%
29-Nov	New Mexico State	124	68-35	W	69%	11.8	99%
4-Jan	vs. Toledo	59	44-63	L	33%	-10.0	21%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	31.4	53	30.4	81
Points Per Game	36.7	19	30.5	92

2. Costly duds

The Red Wolves played at a top-80 level or so (approximately the 38th percentile) in nine-of-13 games, solid for a Sun Belt team. But a letdown against Miami represented a missed opportunity, and two specific conference losses were particularly discouraging.

• Average Percentile Performance in two conference duds (at UL-Lafayette, at Texas State): 15%
• Average Percentile Performance in six other conference games: 71%

The offense was fine against UL-Lafayette, posting 595 yards (7.8 per play) and 40 points. But the Red Wolves were slowed by a pretty bad Texas State defense (5.1 yards per play, albeit with 97 snaps), and in both of these games, the ASU defense got obliterated. UL-Lafayette's Elijah McGuire and Alonzo Harris combined for 46 carries, 372 yards, and eight rushing touchdowns, while TXST's Robert Lowe and C.J. Best combined for 35 carries, six catches, a combined 424 rushing and receiving yards, and five scores.

Big plays were a bugaboo for ASU all year, but in these two games, they were deadly.

One other interesting tidbit: only twice in 13 games did an ASU score finish within one possession. Six-of-seven wins were by at least 14 points, as were four of the five losses. Either it really worked, or it really didn't.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.97	12	IsoPPP+	107.2	50
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.8%	72	Succ. Rt. +	99.5	72
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.3	61	Def. FP+	98.0	92
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.7	39	Redzone S&P+	100.4	64
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.8		ACTUAL	22	+0.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	20	57	67	50
RUSHING	27	60	74	47
PASSING	40	59	56	56
Standard Downs		54	65	46
Passing Downs		71	67	72

Q1 Rk	60	1st Down Rk	46
Q2 Rk	84	2nd Down Rk	22
Q3 Rk	48	3rd Down Rk	92
Q4 Rk	26

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Fredi Knighten	5'11, 189	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7800	269	432	3277	24	7	62.3%	29	6.3%	6.7
Stephen Hogan	6'4, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	3	6	18	0	0	50.0%	0	0.0%	3.0
D.J. Pearson	6'2, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8458
Taljhea Chambers	6'2, 215	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8137

3. Fredi's become a passer

Knighten won the backup role last year, and one figures he has the best odds of winning the job this time around, but after two years as a backup, he's still a bit of an unknown entity. We know he can run; in two years, he's rushed 70 times for 559 yards (8.0 per carry) and five scores. But his arm is still a bit of a mystery. He completed more than two-thirds of his passes last year, mostly in spelling an injured Kennedy late in the year. But the passes were beyond conservative, averaging just 6.3 yards per completion.

Can he throw downfield? He looked great on the final drive of the GoDaddy Bowl, completing three passes for 50 yards and the game-winning score, but a) that's one drive, and b) he had thrown a pick in the end zone on the previous drive. He's going to have to throw downfield at least a little bit if he wins the job. Can he?

I'm not going to try to convince you that Fredi Knighten is an NFL-caliber passer, but the senior from Little Rock's Pulaski Academy was good enough through the air. ASU's offense improved to nearly a top-50 unit, with Knighten combining efficiency passes to slot receiver (and Ace Sanders Lite) J.D. McKissic with more aggressive passes to Tres Houston and breakout freshman Dijon Paschal.

He spread the ball around beautifully, with seven players getting targeted at least twice per game, and ASU was able to manipulate defenses enough with the pass to open up running lanes for Knighten, the explosive Michael Gordon, and at times, freshman Johnston White.

Knighten still has some more boxes to check on the Becoming a Dangerous Passer list: he got sacked too much (common for a guy used to relying on his legs) and, perhaps relatedly, fumbled too much. But he was a first-year starter. He should be able to put up impressive numbers again even if he doesn't develop much, if only because his supporting cast returns almost entirely intact.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Fredi Knighten	QB	5'11, 189	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7800	182	969	11	5.3	6.5	40.7%	9	7
Michael Gordon	RB	5'9, 187	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8549	159	1100	13	6.9	8.8	42.1%	0	0
Johnston White	RB	5'11, 180	So.	NR	N/A	95	514	6	5.4	4.0	44.2%	0	0
Terrance Hollingsworth	RB	5'9, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7785	39	101	1	2.6	2.2	23.1%	1	0
Brandon Byner	RB	5'11, 177	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	26	68	1	2.6	2.9	34.6%	1	1
DeKeathan Williams	RB	6'1, 212	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	N/A	11	50	1	4.5	4.7	36.4%	0	0
Brandon Cox	WR					10	46	0	4.6	5.9	50.0%	1	1
J.D. McKissic	WR-A	5'11, 193	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	9	115	1	12.8	10.5	66.7%	2	2
Warren Wand	RB	5'5, 174	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7959
Jamal Jones	RB	5'9, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8013
Earl Harrison	RB	5'10, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8064

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Tres Houston	WR	6'2, 188	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8111	81	53	680	65.4%	19.4%	60.5%	8.4	41	8.4	77.8
Dijon Paschal	WR	6'1, 196	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8315	61	38	665	62.3%	14.6%	54.1%	10.9	203	11.0	76.1
J.D. McKissic	SLOT	5'11, 193	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	61	52	629	85.2%	14.6%	63.9%	10.3	30	10.3	72.0
Darion Griswold	TE-Y	6'5, 264	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	N/A	36	18	221	50.0%	8.6%	50.0%	6.1	-8	6.7	25.3
Booker Mays	WR	5'10, 170	Jr.	NR	N/A	35	20	325	57.1%	8.4%	48.6%	9.3	78	9.4	37.2
Michael Gordon	RB	5'9, 187	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8549	32	25	191	78.1%	7.7%	50.0%	6.0	-101	5.9	21.9
Brandon Cox	WR					26	16	110	61.5%	6.2%	69.2%	4.2	-85	4.2	12.6
Tyler Trosin	SLOT	5'11, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8373	21	13	135	61.9%	5.0%	28.6%	6.4	-23	6.0	15.4
Blake Mack	WR	6'3, 200	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7959	13	8	155	61.5%	3.1%	46.2%	11.9	57	12.8	17.7
Johnston White	RB	5'11, 180	Jr.	NR	N/A	13	6	27	46.2%	3.1%	38.5%	2.1	-51	1.9	3.1
Kenneth Rains	TE-H					9	7	66	77.8%	2.2%	77.8%	7.3	-16	10.2	7.5
Daryl Rollins-Davis	RB	5'9, 175	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7783	5	4	43	80.0%	1.2%	60.0%	8.6	-4	8.6	4.9
Carl Lee Jr.	WR	6'2, 202	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7983	5	4	11	80.0%	1.2%	60.0%	2.2	-36	2.3	1.3
Warren Leapheart	TE-H	6'5, 242	Jr.	NR	0.7700	3	2	4	66.7%	0.7%	100.0%	1.3	-20	N/A	0.5
DeKeathan Williams	RB	6'1, 212	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	N/A	2	1	3	50.0%	0.5%	50.0%	1.5	-10	1.3	0.3
Darveon Brown	WR	5'11, 176	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8253
Omar Bayless	WR	6'3, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8133
Jaylon Marshall	WR	6'2, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7963

4. So many weapons, so little attrition

Those responsible for 98 percent of ASU's rushes and 91 percent of ASU's targets are scheduled to return. ASU has weapons big (Darion Griswold, Blake Mack, DeKeathan Williams) and small (Michael Gordon, J.D. McKissic, Terrance Hollingsworth), old (Gordon, McKissic, Griswold, Tres Houston) and young (Dijon Paschal, Johnston White, Hollingsworth, Brandon Byner, Mack). And I haven't even mentioned former walk-on and fainting goat extraordinaire Booker Mays yet.

Plus, Anderson signed two quarterbacks, three running backs, and two receivers who were given a three-star designation by either Rivals or the 247Sports Composite (or both).

ASU might have the best offensive depth in the Sun Belt, and the talent is spread out beautifully by class. McKissic and Gordon might be tough to replace after 2015 -- Gordon because of his explosiveness, McKissic because of his absurd efficiency -- but the candidates are lining up.

And once again, here's where I remind you that ASU had four coaches in four years. That kind of turnover is supposed to lead to transfers. It has not.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	87.7	2.55	3.03	41.0%	52.7%	22.9%	93.4	5.0%	9.5%
Rank	107	109	91	42	123	111	79	74	99

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Colton Jackson	RT	6'4, 276	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826	26
Alan Wright	RG					23
Tyler Greve	C					13
Jemar Clark	LT	6'6, 304	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8494	12
Devin Mondie	LG	6'5, 291	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7749	12
Kyle Harris	LT	6'4, 280	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8600	1
Austin Moreton	LG	6'1, 318	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	1
Steven Stevens	LG	6'4, 296	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	0
Jonathan Hamilton	C					0
Travis Bodenstein	RG	6'4, 308	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8353	0
Brennan Tutor	RT					0
Christian Beard	OL	6'4, 270	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8044
Brandon Berg	OL	6'2, 275	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7585
Joseph Baccus	OL	6'5, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7852
Cameron Davis	OL	6'4, 280	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8281
Dalton Ford	OL	6'4, 295	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8081

5. A couple of departures up front

The line could have been better. While the mediocre sack rate had a bit to do with Knighten holding onto the ball too long, the offense didn't produce particularly impressive line stats. The Red Wolves were able to create open-field opportunities, but there were lots of stuffs in the backfield, and the Red Wolves had some of the worst short-yardage percentages in the country.

Three starters (all of whom were either freshmen or sophomores) return, as do two more players with one game of starting experience each. Assuming Colton Jackson, Jemar Clark and Devin Mondie put in typical year-to-year development, there's enough experience to assume ASU's line will be able to replicate last year's numbers. And if at least one of two JUCO signees (Brandon Berg and Joseph Baccus) is able to play at a starter level, maybe the numbers improve.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.92	103	IsoPPP+	88.8	106
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.1%	79	Succ. Rt. +	97.8	78
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.3	25	Off. FP+	102.0	38
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.5	77	Redzone S&P+	90.8	102
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.4		ACTUAL	28.0	+3.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	85	92	74	106
RUSHING	105	107	75	118
PASSING	45	58	58	63
Standard Downs		99	82	97
Passing Downs		83	50	99

Q1 Rk	70	1st Down Rk	64
Q2 Rk	81	2nd Down Rk	82
Q3 Rk	82	3rd Down Rk	103
Q4 Rk	81

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	98.4	3.01	3.61	38.9%	76.6%	20.0%	124.6	3.7%	12.0%
Rank	70	76	92	63	116	55	25	89	6

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Chris Stone	BANDIT	6'3, 252	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	N/A	13	36.5	4.9%	9.5	7.0	0	3	0	0
Ja'Von Rolland-Jones	DE	6'2, 224	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7400	10	26.5	3.5%	12.0	7.5	0	1	2	0
Dexter Blackmon	DT					13	23.5	3.1%	3.0	1.0	0	2	0	0
Chuks Ota	NG	6'2, 285	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8133	13	19.0	2.5%	3.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Chris Odom	NG	6'3, 234	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7783	13	13.0	1.7%	2.0	1.0	0	2	0	0
Darrius Rosser	DT	6'3, 284	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	12	12.0	1.6%	5.0	0.5	0	0	1	0
Clifford Thomas	NG	6'2, 280	So.	NR	N/A	10	10.5	1.4%	1.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Carderious Dean	DE	6'3, 235	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7333	11	8.5	1.1%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Caleb Caston	DE	6'2, 210	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7533	11	8.5	1.1%	2.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Robert Mondie (UAB)	NG	6'2, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7519	11	7.0	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	3	0	0
Jabari Mathieu	BANDIT	6'2, 237	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333	10	4.5	0.6%	2.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
E.J. Sutton	DT	6'3, 275	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7659	8	2.5	0.3%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Waylon Roberson	NG	6'2, 340	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7867
Jake Swalley	NG	6'2, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7919
Griffin Riggs	DE	6'3, 235	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8302
Donovan Ransom	DE	6'1, 270	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826
T.J. Harris	DE	6'2, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793
Javier Carbonell	NG	6'2, 285	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8000

6. If a runner got to the second level against ASU...

...he didn't tend to find much resistance.

It was kind of a theme, one that went beyond the dreadful UL-Lafayette and Texas State games. Miami's Duke Johnson and Gus Edwards combined for 128 yards on just 16 carries. Appalachian State's Marcus Cox carried 40 times for 229 yards and caught a 44-yard pass. NMSU's Larry Rose III ripped off an 80-yard run and finished with 21 carries and 137 yards (in a game that also featured a 75-yard pass to Greg Hogan). And Toledo's Kareem Hunt and Damion Jones-Moore did nasty things, combining for 47 carries, 374 yards, and seven touchdowns.

It's easy to assume ASU had an awful run defense, and you wouldn't be totally wrong, but the Red Wolves had their moments. The efficiency numbers weren't terrible, and in games against Tennessee and others, they were able to prevent second-level opportunities. But the run defense was like an old truck I used to have: after a while, second gear disappeared and it would jerk straight from first to third.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Qushaun Lee	MIKE					13	94.5	12.6%	7.0	1.0	4	3	3	0
Xavier Woodson	WILL	6'1, 214	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8094	13	82.0	10.9%	9.0	4.0	0	3	1	0
Austin Copeland	WILL	6'1, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	N/A	12	21.5	2.9%	2.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Gage Sharp	WILL					7	13.0	1.7%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Quanterio Heath	MIKE	6'2, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8138	7	11.0	1.5%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Mark Johnson	LB	6'2, 180	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7544	6	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0

7. SIC 'EM

ASU was willing to risk big plays in the name of making them. And while that proposition wasn't successful enough to make for an overall strong defense, the Red Wolves made plays.

They ranked 55th in Stuff Rate (run stops behind the line) and sixth in passing downs sack rate. Five players had at least four non-sack tackles for loss, and five had at least two sacks.

Most of those play-makers return. Hell, most of everybody returns. UAB transfer Robert Mondie joins a crowded line that returns 11 of its top 12 tacklers. The linebacking corps returns four of six, though stalwart middle linebacker Qushaun Lee could be missed. Chris Stone and Ja'Von Rolland-Jones might be the Sun Belt's best pass-rushing tandem, Chuks Ota is a potential star at nose guard, and Xavier Woodson is an excellent blitzer.

If experience and depth can lead to a reduction of glitches, and ASU can get its Success Rate+ ranking into the 40s or 50s as opposed to the 70s, the Red Wolves will be better equipped to survive big plays.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Sterling Young	FS					13	65.0	8.6%	1	1	2	3	1	0
Andrew Tryon	CB					13	63.5	8.4%	5.5	1	2	9	0	0
Money Hunter	SS	6'1, 193	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7778	13	59.5	7.9%	1	1	2	2	1	0
Frankie Jackson	NB					13	29.5	3.9%	3	1	1	0	1	0
Artez Brown	CB					13	23.0	3.1%	0.5	0	4	5	0	0
Sterling Wright	NB	6'2, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	11	21.0	2.8%	2	0	0	1	0	0
Rocky Hayes	CB	5'11, 177	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7900	12	21.0	2.8%	2	1	1	5	0	1
Charleston Girley	SS	6'0, 196	Sr.	NR	N/A	5	16.5	2.2%	3	1.5	0	1	0	0
Brock Barnhill	SS					13	13.0	1.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Blaise Taylor	CB	5'9, 170	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8251	13	7.5	1.0%	1.5	0	0	0	1	0
Chris Humes	DB	5'11, 207	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8510	2	7.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Charles Grant	DB	5'11, 180	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8026	8	6.0	0.8%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Khari Lain	DB	5'10, 185	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8015	12	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jamaris Hart	CB	5'9, 163	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956	11	4.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nehemiah Wagner	DB	6'0, 170	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8220	7	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cody Brown	DB	6'2, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8100
Allan Sentimore	DB	6'0, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7956
Avery Johnson	DB	6'2, 210	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8023

8. Some actual turnover (and optimism) in the back

Anderson's first recruiting class featured a pretty impressive haul of defensive backs, and quite a few of them got reserve playing time, presumably as preparation to take over.

ASU must replace both starting cornerbacks and two of three starting safeties in coordinator Joe Cauthen's 4-2-5. Granted, the secondary was probably responsible for quite a few enormous plays, but corners Andrew Tryon and Artez Brown were successfully aggressive, combining for six tackles for loss, six picks, and 14 break-ups. Replacing them doesn't guarantee improvement on the big-play front, but it could mean for a reduction in defense's own havoc plays.

Of course, there's still experience, so the reins might not have to completely go to the sophomores just yet. Charleston Girley began as a starter and made havoc plays before breaking his wrist, and 2013 starter Chris Humes tore his bicep against Tennessee. It probably isn't a coincidence that a lot of ASU's biggest breakdowns came after these two were lost for the year. If they're able to return to full strength and a sophomore like exciting corner Blaise Taylor is able to break through, then this secondary could perform as well as last year's.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Luke Ferguson	6'0, 210	Sr.	56	41.4	4	23	22	80.4%
Stephen Hogan	6'4, 210	Sr.	11	45.5	2	2	3	45.5%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Luke Ferguson	6'0, 210	Sr.	79	59.2	34	2	43.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Luke Ferguson	6'0, 210	Sr.	36-42	5-8	62.5%	3-7	42.9%
Logan Spry	5'11, 220	Sr.	16-18	3-3	100.0%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Daryl Rollins-Davis	KR	5'9, 175	So.	18	23.6	0
Blaise Taylor	KR	5'9, 170	So.	12	24.5	0
Blaise Taylor	PR	5'9, 170	So.	29	8.1	1
J.D. McKissic	PR	5'11, 193	Sr.	3	-1.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	73
Field Goal Efficiency	122
Punt Return Efficiency	69
Kick Return Efficiency	29
Punt Efficiency	28
Kickoff Efficiency	71
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	4

9. Find a kicker

ASU's special teams produced good punts and kick returns and decent kickoffs and punt returns. All the primary reasons for that return, including hang-time punter Luke Ferguson and return man Blaise Taylor. They were key cogs in a lovely outfit.

But the place-kicking could have been costly. ASU was good at finishing drives in the end zone but still attempted 18 field goals, and of the 15 Ferguson tried, he only made eight. And he missed SIX PATs as well. Logan Spry took over place-kicking duties and made all three of his field goals, but none was over 40 yards, and he managed to miss two PATs as well.

ASU only played in two particularly close games, so this didn't make the difference it could have. But it could if either Ferguson, Spry, or some other option doesn't figure out how to turn kicks into points.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
5-Sep	at USC	16
12-Sep	Missouri	20
26-Sep	at Toledo	59
?	Missouri State	NR
?	Idaho	112
?	Georgia State	122
?	Texas State	95
?	UL-Lafayette	72
?	at Appalachian State	104
?	at New Mexico State	124
?	at South Alabama	89
?	at UL-Monroe	97

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-2.2% (65)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	88 / 86
2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	6 / 2.6
2014 TO Luck/Game	+1.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (9, 5)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	7.3 (-0.3)

10. Beat the Cajuns

The Sun Belt hasn't put out its official schedules yet -- we know the pairings, but not the dates. So hey, maybe it's not too late to make some changes to the slate? Like, change the fact that neither Arkansas State nor UL-Lafayette plays Georgia Southern? These might be the three best teams in the Sun Belt (though Appalachian State might have something to say about that), and the round-robin among them consists of one game. That's a shame.

No matter who's on the schedule, theRed Wolves boast more experience and depth than they should, and the offense both improved in 2014 and returns almost every weapon. They boast one of the league's best running backs (non-Elijah McGuire division) and receiving corps, and their defensive front six is active.

Plus, the two weak units -- offensive line and secondary -- might not be any weaker. And in the case of the secondary, you could make a case that it will be better.

So if almost every unit improves from a team that played at a 70th-percentile level for three-quarters of conference play ... well ... that sounds like a conference contender to me. Hell, it almost sounds like a conference favorite, especially if ASU can take down UL-Lafayette at home.