Georgia Southern could've moved up years ago. Now for a second league title?

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1. Well that went well

Georgia State may not be doing much damage at the top sub-division of FBS, but if the Panthers helped to convince the Eagles to finally promote themselves, maybe that's a worthwhile legacy.

For most of three decades, Georgia Southern proved all it needed to at the I-AA/FCS level. Erk Russell took over in Statesboro in 1982 and ran what was basically a club team. The Eagles opened Paulson Stadium in 1984 and immediately began to win: I-AA national titles in 1985 and 1986, runner-up in 1988, national title in 1989.

The Eagles misplaced the magic under Tim Stowers (who replaced Russell and won the '90 title), averaging eight wins per year and reaching only the quarterfinals twice in five seasons. But eventual flexbone master Paul Johnson (Russell's offensive coordinator) took over and kindled another title run: 10 wins in 1997, national runner-up in 1998 (Sagarin ranking: 66th overall, ahead of half of what was then I-A), national champion in 1999 (46th) and 2000 (52nd).

GS fell again when Johnson left for Navy, but Jeff Monken went 31-12 from 2010-12 and beat Florida in 2013 with an injury-plagued squad. It was time.

Wow, was it time. In Georgia Southern's first year under Willie Fritz and in the Sun Belt, it posted a top-60 F/+ ranking, finished with nine wins, and went undefeated in the conference.

The Eagles' success brought light to the silly "first-year teams aren't allowed to play in bowls (unless no one else is eligible)" rule. Regardless, it was a hell of a first campaign. And if the returnees are any indication, the encore should be fun, too. There will be bowl opportunities in the near future.

So ... tell me again why Georgia Southern didn't move up a long time ago?

It's interesting to see who chooses to make the FCS-to-FBS jump and who eschews it. Marshall won a single FCS title in 1992 and almost immediately prepared to make the leap. (The Herd won the title again in 1996, then won the MAC in their first try in 1997.) Youngstown State won four titles in seven years between 1991 and '97 under Jim Tressel but never jumped, even though it was superior to half the MAC at the time. Scores of middling programs have jumped despite minimal accomplishments, hoping that money would kickstart a run of success.

Meanwhile, powers like Georgia Southern and three-time champion Appalachian State didn't until their sprees of titles were over. And four-time (and counting) champion North Dakota State has yet to decide that a potential run in the MAC is worthwhile.

Perhaps the money just never made sense. Perhaps the thought of raising a national title trophy is more enjoyable than raising a bowl of potatoes. Whatever the reason, Georgia Southern could have moved to the Sun Belt a lot earlier than it did. But the Eagles' debut, as delayed as it may have been, went even better than expected.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-3 | Adj. Record: 7-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 57
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	at NC State	55	23-24	L	30%	-12.2	37%
6-Sep	Savannah State	N/A	83-9	W	85%	24.5	100%
13-Sep	at Georgia Tech	8	38-42	L	36%	-8.5	37%
20-Sep	at South Alabama	89	28-6	W	78%	18.4	100%
25-Sep	Appalachian State	104	34-14	W	83%	21.9	100%
4-Oct	at New Mexico State	124	36-28	W	33%	-10.3	88%
11-Oct	Idaho	112	47-24	W	55%	2.9	98%
25-Oct	at Georgia State	122	69-31	W	72%	13.3	100%
30-Oct	Troy	126	42-10	W	81%	20.4	100%
8-Nov	at Texas State	95	28-25	W	68%	10.7	95%
15-Nov	at Navy	44	19-52	L	2%	-47.3	0%
29-Nov	UL-Monroe	97	22-16	W	43%	-4.1	88%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	34.5	34	32.6	93
Points Per Game	39.1	10	23.4	29

2. No place like Statesboro

Georgia Southern's first September in FBS began to look even more impressive in October and November. The Eagles narrowly fell to what turned out to be a pretty good NC State, then lost by only four points to a Georgia Tech that would become Orange Bowl champion three months later.

The Eagles' first Sun Belt campaign then began with two three-possession wins over eventual bowl eligible (in record, at least) South Alabama and Appalachian State teams. Not bad.

There were a couple of dips -- the Eagles were unimpressive against New Mexico State and laid a ridiculous egg against Navy -- but they went 8-0 in the Sun Belt, averaging at least 6 yards per play in seven of eight games and allowing 5.3 or fewer per play in six. And they could boast something that not every SBC team can: home-field advantage.

• Average percentile performance (five home games): 69% (record: 5-0)
• Average percentile performance (seven road games): 46% (record: 4-3)

Southern won its five home games by margins of 74, 20, 23, and 32 before a 22-16 slog over ULM in the season finale, averaging more than 21,000 in attendance. Granted, only one of six 2015 home opponents ranked better than 89th last year, so a significant advantage might not be necessary to keep up the unbeaten streak, but Paulson Stadium could make a difference in an early battle of mid-major powerhouses -- Western Michigan at GS on September 12 -- and it's nice to have that in your back pocket.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.99	9	IsoPPP+	114.9	38
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	48.2%	13	Succ. Rt. +	100.9	66
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.5	17	Def. FP+	100.9	64
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	5.3	4	Redzone S&P+	112.7	34
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.4		ACTUAL	12	-3.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	16	43	60	38
RUSHING	1	45	61	32
PASSING	125	54	93	38
Standard Downs		46	68	33
Passing Downs		50	52	51

Q1 Rk	40	1st Down Rk	21
Q2 Rk	60	2nd Down Rk	15
Q3 Rk	15	3rd Down Rk	31
Q4 Rk	17

3. Willie Fritz knows option

Georgia Southern and option football have long been synonymous, and not just during Paul Johnson's stints. Southern has rarely struggled to attract the talent to run a successful attack, and it has been an identity during most of the Eagles' successful seasons. Efforts by coaches like Brian VanGorder and Chris Hatcher to steer away from the triple option went awry quickly.

When Jeff Monken left Statesboro after 2013 to attempt to bring success back to Army, Southern made a hire that was both predictable and forward-thinking. Willie Fritz spent 13 seasons mastering a modern option of sorts at Central Missouri, then took over at Sam Houston State, a middling Southland Conference program. He went 6-5 in 2010, then caught fire, going 25-5 in 2011-12, winning two straight Southland titles and reaching the FCS championship twice in a row.

The Fritz offense is familiar and unfamiliar. The read-option concepts are obvious, but used frequently in spread formations. There is an option or a run fake on nearly every play.

Cases in point:

The scheme offers flexibility, run lanes, and occasional easy throws. The run rates scream "Option football!" but there's a modernized aspect that should allow Fritz and Georgia Southern to easily recruit.

The attack worked in 2014, anyway. Georgia Southern led the nation in rushing yards per game and produced big passing plays. Starting quarterback Kevin Ellison had 167 rush attempts to 132 pass attempts (including sacks as passes) and averaged more than 14 yards per completion.

One added benefit to the attack last year: the Eagles were efficient and flexible enough that opposing defenses tended to fall apart in the second half. Look at the per-quarter S&P+ rankings above: 40th and 60th in the first and second quarters, respectively, then 15th and 17th in the third and fourth.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2015 Year

Rivals

247 Comp.

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Kevin Ellison

6'0, 190

Jr.

NR

NR

71

128

1001

5

3

55.5%

4

3.0%

7.4

Favian Upshaw

6'1, 170

Jr.

3 stars (5.5)

0.8128

19

27

285

2

1

70.4%

0

0.0%

10.6

Ezayi Youyoute

5'11, 185

Sr.

NR

NR

Hampton McConnell

6'3, 200

Fr.

2 stars (5.4)

0.7979

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Matt Breida	RB	5'10, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593	171	1485	17	8.7	10.9	44.4%	4	2
Kevin Ellison	QB	6'0, 190	Jr.	NR	NR	167	1108	12	6.6	6.1	52.1%	10	3
L.A. Ramsby	RB	5'11, 210	So.	NR	NR	148	691	12	4.7	3.3	40.5%	1	1
Favian Upshaw	QB	6'1, 170	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8128	40	385	2	9.6	8.1	65.0%	1	1
Devin Scott	RB					30	156	1	5.2	3.7	43.3%	0	0
Ean Days	RB					25	230	5	9.2	9.9	48.0%	0	0
Zach Walker	WR					13	86	1	6.6	7.3	46.2%	1	0
Ezayi Youyoute	QB	5'11, 185	Sr.	NR	NR	11	162	1	14.7	17.6	54.5%	1	0
Dennis Pritchard	RB					10	114	2	11.4	6.9	80.0%	0	0
Montay Crockett	WR	6'0, 180	Jr.	NR	NR	8	48	1	6.0	4.4	62.5%	1	1
Brandan Thomas	RB					7	117	1	16.7	10.2	100.0%	1	0
Wesley Fields	RB	6'0, 195	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8364

4. Hold onto the ball, Kevin

Modernized or not, Georgia Southern's attack did feature one liability familiar to option offenses: fumbles. Ellison fumbled 10 times, and leading rusher Matt Breida fumbled four. That Southern managed to recover nine of these 14 was a bit lucky (it was also a product of the offense being more likely to recover fumbles in the backfield).

[Update: Ellison's suspended for the first two weeks, against West Virginia and Western Michigan.]

Drops were sources of negative plays that mostly didn't exist otherwise. The Eagles' attack combined strong efficiency with big-play potential, all in a scheme designed to succeed near the goal line.

Ellison was a good enough passer that there was no significant drop in production on passing downs; we'll see how much he misses his No. 2 and No. 3 targets, Zach Walker and Kentrellis Showers. B.J. Johnson does return, as do 1,400-yard rusher Breida and his top backup, L.A. Ramsby. Incoming freshmen like back Wesley Fields and receivers Obe Fortune and D'Ondre Glenn could threaten to see the field, but the top of the totem pole is set. And if Ellison happens to get hurt, we learned that backup Favian Upshaw is capable of steering the ship.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
BJ Johnson	WR	6'1, 210	Sr.	NR	NR	41	23	312	56.1%	27.7%	70.7%	7.6	26	7.0	50.0
Zach Walker	WR					31	21	271	67.7%	20.9%	54.8%	8.7	20	8.7	43.4
Kentrellis Showers	WR					30	16	341	53.3%	20.3%	56.7%	11.4	140	11.4	54.7
Matt Breida	RB	5'10, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593	10	8	97	80.0%	6.8%	50.0%	9.7	4	10.1	15.6
L.A. Ramsby	RB	5'11, 210	So.	NR	NR	7	6	100	85.7%	4.7%	28.6%	14.3	31	17.2	16.0
Montay Crockett	WR	6'0, 180	Jr.	NR	NR	6	3	72	50.0%	4.1%	66.7%	12.0	34	13.8	11.5
Derek Keaton	WR	5'10, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8200	6	5	42	83.3%	4.1%	33.3%	7.0	-16	7.4	6.7
Devin Scott	RB					5	5	35	100.0%	3.4%	20.0%	7.0	-21	8.9	5.6
Ryan Longoria	WR	6'2, 195	Sr.	NR	NR	3	1	8	33.3%	2.0%	33.3%	2.7	-6	1.7	1.3
Keigan Williams	WR	6'1, 195	Jr.	NR	NR	2	0	0	0.0%	1.4%	0.0%	0.0	-3	N/A	0.0
Nardo Govan	TE	6'2, 250	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	NR	1	1	8	100.0%	0.7%	0.0%	8.0	-3	N/A	1.3
Kameron Maye	WR	6'0, 175	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8306	1	0	0	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0	-1	N/A	0.0
Jeff Ward	TE	6'0, 275	Sr.	NR	NR	1	0	0	0.0%	0.7%	100.0%	0.0	-1	N/A	0.0
Myles Campbell	WR	5'5, 160	So.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	1	1	0	100.0%	0.7%	100.0%	0.0	-11	N/A	0.0
Cody Rediger	TE	6'2, 240	Sr.	NR	NR
Obe Fortune	WR	6'1, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8028
D'Ondre Glenn	WR	6'5, 210	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7993
J.L. Banks	TE	6'3, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	99	3.44	3.77	48.6%	71.2%	12.8%	204.2	0.0%	6.0%
Rank	80	9	23	3	37	2	5	1	40

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Garrett Frye	LT					36
Manrey Saint-Amour	C					34
Logan Daves	RG					25
Trevor McBurnett	LG					23
Darien Foreman	LG	6'2, 305	Sr.	NR	NR	16
Raymond Klugey	RT					14
Maurice Hunt, Jr.	LT	6'1, 290	Sr.	NR	NR	2
Jeff Ward	RG	6'0, 275	Sr.	NR	NR	2
Andy Kwon	C	6'2, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7667	0
Trayvon Williams	OL	6'2, 325	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8379	0
Christian Taylor	OL	6'5, 340	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8120	0
Tristan Hill	OL	6'4, 275	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8100	0
Max Magana	OL	6'6, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826
Jeremiah Culbreth	OT	6'3, 285	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8252
Jeremiah Theus	OT	6'4, 280	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8004

5. A lot to replace up front

The losses go beyond two top receivers. Though aided by scheme and skill players, Georgia Southern's line produced some of the best stats in the Sun Belt. The Eagles kept a clean backfield. And now they must replace four starters, including three-year first-stringers Garrett Frye and Manrey Saint-Amour.

Previous injuries could help. The line got massacred by injuries in previous years, so likely starters like Maurice Hunt Jr. and Jeff Ward have gotten playing time. Plus, last year's experience meant Fritz could redshirt three-star freshmen Trayvon Williams, Christian Taylor, and Tristan Hill.

A drop-off can mean bad things for any offense -- it raises a red flag -- but there's more experience and potential here than should exist on a line that loses those responsible for 132 starts.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.75	15	IsoPPP+	100.0	67
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.1%	95	Succ. Rt. +	96.3	83
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	33.1	14	Off. FP+	106.2	14
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.2	49	Redzone S&P+	90.5	103
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.2		ACTUAL	20.0	+0.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	57	77	82	67
RUSHING	49	79	78	70
PASSING	82	73	101	58
Standard Downs		81	77	74
Passing Downs		76	84	71

Q1 Rk	60	1st Down Rk	80
Q2 Rk	86	2nd Down Rk	85
Q3 Rk	83	3rd Down Rk	104
Q4 Rk	108

6. Bend, bend, and hope you don't break late

Thanks to offensive efficiency, solid kickoffs, and efficient returns, Georgia Southern had an effective field position game. In average starting field position, the Eagles' plus-5.6 margin was eighth in the country and easily first in the Sun Belt. Only one other SBC team (UL-Lafayette) was better than plus-3.

This is a remarkable accomplishment, considering how inefficient the defense was. It wasn't bad by Sun Belt standards, but it was still a weakness. The Eagles allowed greater than 6.1 yards per play against NC State and Georgia Tech, 8 to Navy and, strangely, 7.5 to Georgia State.

The Eagles were particularly flexible via the air; opponents knew that throwing was the easier path, and beyond Nick Wright, the cornerbacks were passive, allowing completions and aiming to prevent big plays.

Defensive coordinator Jack Curtis might have his work cut out for him. The front seven returns active pieces like end Bernard Dawson and linebacker Antwione Williams, but the secondary that was a weakness a year ago is a younger weakness this time.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	98	3.28	3.08	41.7%	65.0%	16.5%	81.5	4.0%	6.1%
Rank	72	112	44	96	51	107	97	83	86

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Bernard Dawson	DE	6'1, 245	Jr.	NR	NR	10	25.5	4.0%	6.0	3.0	0	2	0	0
Jamal Johnson	DT	6'2, 245	Jr.	NR	NR	9	16.5	2.6%	3.5	3.0	0	1	0	0
Jay Ellison	NT	6'1, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8490	12	30.0	4.8%	4.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Justice Ejike	DT					9	13.0	2.1%	3.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Quaun Daniels	DE	6'1, 230	Sr.	NR	NR	7	15.0	2.4%	3.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Jonathan Battle, Jr.	DT	6'1, 285	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	NR	6	11.5	1.8%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Lennie Richardson	DE	6'1, 255	Sr.	NR	NR	10	15.0	2.4%	3.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Rashad Williams	DE					9	16.5	2.6%	1.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Ryan George	DE	6'1, 240	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956	7	9.0	1.4%	3.5	3.5	0	0	0	0
Darrius Sapp	NT	6'1, 320	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8161	5	8.0	1.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ross Alexander	DE	6'2, 230	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7900	3	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Ian Bush	DT	6'0, 305	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8000
Zack Copeland	DE	6'1, 235	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7694
Logan Hunt	DE	6'2, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8181
J.B. Kouassi	DE	6'2, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8185

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Edwin Jackson	MIKE					12	79.0	12.5%	4.0	0.0	1	0	1	0
Antwione Williams	WILL	6'3, 245	Sr.	NR	NR	12	55.5	8.8%	8.0	3.0	0	4	2	0
Deshawntee Gallon	WILL	5'9, 205	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	12	34.5	5.5%	6.0	3.0	1	0	0	0
Chris DeLaRosa	MIKE	6'1, 220	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7683	7	12.5	2.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Patrick Flowe	LB	6'1, 215	Sr.	NR	NR	4	6.0	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ken Butler, Jr.	LB	5'11, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8200	3	5.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Laderrick Roberts	LB	6'0, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7400	1	3.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Kurt Oehlbeck	LB	5'10, 180	So.	NR	NR	1	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0

7. Experience won't be an issue

The defensive front was passive too, considering the No. 107 ranking in Stuff Rate (run stops behind the line) and sack rate rankings in the 80s.

Still, the Eagles flowed quickly to the ball and did a decent job of stopping non-option running attacks. (In an ironic twist, the Eagles got torched by Georgia Tech's and Navy's triple-option attacks to the tune of 742 combined rushing yards. But they allowed 110.2 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry otherwise.)

Most of the reasons for that decent play are back. Of the eight linemen with at least three tackles for loss, seven return; so do two of the three linebackers with at least four. The Eagles survived shuffling last fall and should benefit from experience. And if well-touted reserves like linebacker Ken Butler Jr., sophomore tackle Darrius Sapp, and freshman ends Logan Hunt and J.B. Kouassi are able to contribute, the depth and athleticism will be upgrades. [Update: Former four-star linebacker Ukeme Eligwe, a transfer from Florida State, is applying for an eligibility waiver, as well. Alexander and Oehlbeck are suspended indefinitely for possession of a controlled substance.]

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Antonio Glover	SS	6'1, 195	Sr.	NR	NR	11	50.5	8.0%	5	0	1	2	1	0
Matt Dobson	FS	6'2, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8293	12	50.0	7.9%	3.5	0	3	3	1	0
Deion Stanley	NB					11	32.5	5.1%	4	0	3	4	0	0
Nick Wright	CB					10	28.0	4.4%	1.5	0	1	8	0	0
Darius Jones, Jr.	CB	5'9, 180	Jr.	NR	NR	10	24.5	3.9%	0	0	1	4	0	0
Robert Brice II	SS	5'11, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7100	8	14.5	2.3%	0	0	1	0	1	0
Steve Williams	S	6'2, 210	Sr.	NR	0.7552	9	13.0	2.1%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Rayquan Sam	CB	5'9, 180	Sr.	NR	NR	7	12.5	2.0%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Valdon Cooper	CB					6	9.0	1.4%	1	0	0	1	1	0
Caleb Williams	CB	5'9, 170	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7700	8	9.0	1.4%	0.5	0	1	1	1	0
Tay Hicklin	NB	5'11, 190	Sr.	NR	NR	5	6.0	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Vegas Harley	FS	5'11, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8293	3	4.5	0.7%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Darrius White	CB	5'11, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8178
Markeis Hallback	S	6'0, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8399
Joshua Moon	S	5'11, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8364
Jessie Liptrot	CB	6'0, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8173
Jay Bowdry	S	6'0, 187	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8063
Christian Matthew	CB	6'3, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8225

8. Lots of 3-star freshmen, lots of openings

Again, this defense was decent, it just dragged down Southern's overall ratings. The top two safeties, Antonio Glover and Matt Dobson, combined for 8.5 tackles for loss, four picks, and five break-ups, and departed corner Nick Wright made plays.

Plus, this unit isn't exactly a black hole of inexperience: the Eagles return six senior and three junior DBs who made at least 4.5 tackles.

Still, a) the secondary wasn't very good, and b) the 4-2-5 structure of the defense requires as many warm bodies as possible in the back. GS signed six defensive backs -- five high schoolers and a JUCO transfer -- who were given three-star designations by the 247Sports Composite. One would assume they'll have opportunity to win jobs on the two-deep. If one of the incoming corners is able to make an impact, it wouldn't be hard to see this unit holding steady despite losing a couple of starters.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Ryan Nowicki	6'1, 200	Sr.	34	40.2	2	16	16	94.1%
Kevin Ellison	6'0, 190	Jr.	3	36.3	1	0	2	66.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Younghoe Koo	5'10, 190	Jr.	71	62.2	24	3	33.8%
Alex Hanks	5'9, 185	Sr.	14	64.5	8	1	57.1%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Alex Hanks	5'9, 185	Sr.	47-54	7-9	77.8%	1-3	33.3%
Younghoe Koo	5'10, 190	Jr.	6-7	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Derek Keaton	KR	5'10, 180	Sr.	16	27.8	0
Montay Crockett	KR	6'0, 180	Jr.	12	24.2	0
Tray Butler	PR			15	6.0	0
Brandan Thomas	PR			8	4.1	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	80
Field Goal Efficiency	94
Punt Return Efficiency	55
Kick Return Efficiency	49
Punt Efficiency	100
Kickoff Efficiency	38
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	90

9. Special teams options

It was an all-hands-on-deck experience last year -- two players attempted PATs, two had at least 14 kickoffs, two had at least three punts (if you include Kevin Ellison, who was two-for-three on downing pooch-kicks inside the 20), two had at least 12 kick returns, and two had at least eight punt returns.

And everybody but the punt returners are back. Experience doesn't necessarily make you better, but it's hard to see this unit getting worse.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
5-Sep	at West Virginia	40
12-Sep	Western Michigan	56
19-Sep	The Citadel	NR
21-Nov	at Georgia	4
?	Georgia State	122
?	New Mexico State	124
?	South Alabama	89
?	Texas State	95
?	at Appalachian State	104
?	at Idaho	112
?	at Troy	126
?	at UL-Monroe	97

Five-Year F/+ Rk	4.0% (52)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	84 / 104
2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	8 / 3.8
2014 TO Luck/Game	+1.7
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (5, 7)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	9.4 (-0.4)

10. Aim high

There are question marks. When you lose four offensive line starters, your offense does tend to regress. Plus, only three Eagles were targeted by passes more than once per game last year, and only one returns. And a bend-don't-break defense that broke a few times might have more issues in the secondary than last year. So after a surprising top-60 finish in the F/+ ratings, there's nothing guaranteeing the Eagles won't stumble into the 70s, or even the 80s with some injuries.

But even with a stumble, Georgia Southern is going to be a force and a favorite in the Sun Belt, especially considering the schedule, which allows the Eagles to avoid UL-Lafayette and Arkansas State for a second straight year. A trip to Appalachian State could be tricky, but the odds of Georgia Southern moving from 8-0 to 16-0 all-time in the Sun Belt are at least decent.

Assuming the Eagles make waves again in-conference, they'll have a couple of opportunities to announce their presence nationally. A late-season trip to Athens awaits, and while Georgia will probably be too much, a West Virginia with a rebuilt offense might not. If the Georgia Southern secondary is up to the task (and it might not be), a season-opening upset win in Morgantown isn't off the table.

We had to wait a while to welcome Georgia Southern to the FBS ranks, but the Eagles will fit in just fine, even if they aren't quite as good in Year 2 as in Year 1.