The big 2015 Eastern Michigan football guide: Searching for sunshine in the Factory

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. One day EMU will be good at football

"Good luck, Coach Creighton. You seem pretty good at your job. You need to be great."

We have kind of a running joke within the SB Nation college football team. I like basically every program in FBS and can find good in them, while recruiting chief Bud Elliott dislikes every program and can find the bad in them. We're both mostly right in the facts we use, but we tend to have differing interpretations and standards.

I tend to live up/down to my reputation. In my now-complete Sun Belt previews, I was able to tell you, completely straight-faced, that both Idaho and Georgia State were better than you thought last year and that Idaho might be only a couple of breaks from a run at bowl eligibility. I am proud of my ability to look at sunshine.

But sometimes it's easier. Forty years into FBS life, Eastern Michigan is still waiting for the sun to come out. Last winning record: 1995, a couple years before current recruiting targets were born. Last bowl: 1987. Crowds since 1992 within 5,000 fans of a sellout: two. EMU has won more than six games three times in four decades. It hasn't done so since the Jim Harkema era, which ended almost 23 years ago.

The Eagles have come close to modest breakthroughs, most recently in 2005 (lost four games by a combined 12 points and finished 4-7) and 2011 (needing just one more win for bowl eligibility, the Eagles lost to Ball State, Kent, and NIU in November by a combined 14). But following the disappointment of 2011, head coach Ron English went hurtling off the cliffs.

The fact that Chris Creighton accepted the job shows he's a daring soul, a man willing to go BASE jumping off a cliff without knowing for sure that his parachute will work. Creighton took on this job after impressive engineering campaigns at NAIA's Ottawa University, Division III's Wabash College, and FCS' Drake University. He won seven conference titles, including two at Drake, which is in no way an FCS power, and a jump to an FBS mid-major seemed like the logical step.

Creighton has grown used to making something out of nothing, and he won his first offseason on the job. In the name of #branding, he spear-headed the laying of gray turf and establishment of The Factory theme. And it actually looked pretty good!

But then the games started. A narrow, season-opening win over Morgan State, a sub-200 team according to the Sagarin ratings, was both exciting and terrifying, and the Eagles lost their next four games by a combined 186-23. Following an out-of-nowhere thumping of Buffalo, six more losses followed, four by margins of at least 22 points. Barring a slight peak in the middle of the year, EMU was easily the worst team in FBS, too young on offense and too thin on defense.

One day, someone will take EMU back to the postseason. It might even be Creighton, given enough time to build a foundation for the factory. But 2014 was a merciless reminder of how far below EMU is. Creighton will have to win a few more offseasons before his work pays off.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 | Adj. Record: 1-11 | Final F/+ Rk: 128
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	Morgan State	N/A	31-28	W	7%	-34.2	47%
6-Sep	at Florida	32	0-65	L	2%	-47.5	0%
13-Sep	at Old Dominion	108	3-17	L	15%	-24.2	4%
20-Sep	at Michigan State	11	14-73	L	3%	-45.8	0%
4-Oct	at Akron	105	6-31	L	3%	-42.5	0%
11-Oct	Buffalo	114	37-27	W	81%	20.8	97%
18-Oct	at Massachusetts	120	14-36	L	18%	-21.6	10%
25-Oct	Northern Illinois	69	17-28	L	23%	-17.0	4%
1-Nov	Central Michigan	85	7-38	L	2%	-49.7	0%
15-Nov	at Western Michigan	56	7-51	L	1%	-54.6	0%
22-Nov	at Ball State	91	30-45	L	14%	-24.8	3%
28-Nov	Toledo	59	16-52	L	2%	-46.3	0%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	16.0	122	40.6	126
Points Per Game	15.2	126	40.9	125

2. A fleeting glimpse

In essence, EMU pulled a sneak attack mid-season.

• Average percentile performance (first 5 games): 6%
• Average percentile performance (next 3 games): 41%
• Average percentile performance (last 4 games): 5%

The Eagles cycled through quarterbacks early; redshirt freshman Reggie Bell started the opener against Morgan State but left with a foot injury, then one-time ace recruit Brogram Roback started against Florida and ODU before also leaving with injury. Former Penn State quarterback (and LSU receiver) Rob Bolden took over but couldn't produce a passer rating better than 106.1 in a game, even against Akron.

So after the Eagles scored 23 points in four games against FBS opponents, Bell returned and torched Buffalo. He rushed 17 times for 202 yards against the Bulls and completed eight of 13 passes for 144 yards. EMU put up 484 yards, its best total in nearly two years.

It took a couple more games for MAC opponents to cope with Bell's potential. Against UMass and NIU, he rushed for 173 yards and threw for 271, but an inability to finish drives and/or play defense doomed the Eagles. Bell suffered a concussion early in November and returned to the lineup to put up enormous numbers against Ball State -- 18 carries for 101 yards, 36-for-49 passing for 409 and three touchdowns -- but EMU managed to outgain the Cardinals by 63 yards and still lose by 15. And then Toledo more than doubled EMU's yardage in the season finale.

In theory, we saw what a good EMU team might look like. The goal for 2015 probably isn't to make a bowl or anything like that -- it's to expand that three-game bubble of potential to five or six or seven games.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.69	127	IsoPPP+	64.7	127
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	36.1%	116	Succ. Rt. +	81.7	123
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	32.7	117	Def. FP+	96.0	108
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	106	Redzone S&P+	81.5	120
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.3		ACTUAL	30	+6.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	124	127	121	127
RUSHING	99	98	92	104
PASSING	117	128	128	128
Standard Downs		124	121	127
Passing Downs		125	123	125

Q1 Rk	124	1st Down Rk	123
Q2 Rk	127	2nd Down Rk	116
Q3 Rk	100	3rd Down Rk	127
Q4 Rk	104

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Reginald Bell	6'3, 184	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7882	105	184	1297	9	6	57.1%	22	10.7%	7.1
Rob Bolden					41	95	399	4	5	43.2%	11	10.4%	3.1
Brogan Roback	6'3, 202	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8663	21	41	125	0	0	51.2%	2	4.7%	2.5

3. All that's fun and horrifying

When I said that EMU was "too young on offense" above, that was a bit misleading. The Eagles were young at quarterback, but that's about it. EMU has quite a few experienced pieces to replace now. But in Bell, they have a young guy who can craft an identity for an entire offense.

For the season, Bell's numbers were quite good: 7.1 yards per pass attempt (including sacks), 6.5 yards per carry. As a dual-threat in a run-first offense, you can work with that. But full-season averages don't reflect how good the good games were, and they especially don't reflect the long droughts between the good games.

As is customary for a young dual-threat quarterback, a guy who has the ball in his hands a lot, the negative plays were frequent. Bell was sacked 22 times, fumbled 11 times, and threw six interceptions. He was 8-for-13 against Buffalo but 26-for-55 against UMass and NIU, 36-for-49 against Ball State but 8-for-23 against Toledo. The key for Bell's maturation is going to be evening out.

Roback remains on the roster as well. An incredibly rare four-star signee, he was thrust into action late in his true freshman campaign and predictably struggled. If you believe recruiting rankings at all, he has as much potential as anybody on the team, but he got Wally Pipp'd by Bell.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Reginald Bell	QB	6'3, 184	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7882	111	723	4	6.5	7.1	43.2%	11	6
Ryan Brumfield	RB					95	348	4	3.7	3.7	28.4%	2	1
Bronson Hill	RB					85	351	0	4.1	3.9	31.8%	1	0
Darius Jackson	RB/WR	6'0, 219	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7300	61	295	1	4.8	5.4	32.8%	2	2
Rob Bolden	QB					46	158	0	3.4	2.0	37.0%	3	2
Tyler Allen	WR					11	34	0	3.1	3.8	36.4%	2	2
Brogan Roback	QB	6'3, 202	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8663	6	34	0	5.7	23.5	16.7%	2	1
Shaq Vann	RB	5'10, 195	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8059
Breck Turner	RB	6'0, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8299

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Tyreese Russell	TE					60	39	523	65.0%	19.7%	48.3%	8.7	53	8.6	40.1
Dustin Creel	WR-X	6'2, 203	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	42	24	228	57.1%	13.8%	57.1%	5.4	-69	5.4	17.5
Tyler Allen	WR-H					36	16	170	44.4%	11.8%	50.0%	4.7	-40	4.9	13.0
Darius Jackson	RB/WR	6'0, 219	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7300	28	20	148	71.4%	9.2%	67.9%	5.3	-89	5.7	11.4
Kris Strange	WR-Z	5'11, 186	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	27	14	179	51.9%	8.9%	48.1%	6.6	2	6.9	13.7
David Gibson	WR-Z					25	9	140	36.0%	8.2%	48.0%	5.6	15	5.9	10.7
Cole Gardner	TE	6'5, 257	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7678	23	8	78	34.8%	7.6%	69.6%	3.4	-34	3.3	6.0
Ryan Brumfield	RB					21	12	76	57.1%	6.9%	61.9%	3.6	-72	3.6	5.8
Bronson Hill	RB					15	9	143	60.0%	4.9%	46.7%	9.5	33	10.5	11.0
Kray'shawn Brewer	WR-X					13	9	71	69.2%	4.3%	61.5%	5.5	-36	5.5	5.4
Kenny Jones	WR-X					8	4	51	50.0%	2.6%	62.5%	6.4	0	6.1	3.9
Austin Stone	WR-Z	5'11, 199	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7444	3	1	8	33.3%	1.0%	100.0%	2.7	-6	N/A	0.6
Lemar Harris	WR	6'2, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8203
Kevin Davis (Indiana)	WR	5'11, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8650
Cody Tuttle	TE	6'4, 230	Jr.	NR	0.7400
Kezio Snelling	WR	6'1, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8248
Isaac Holder	WR	5'11, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8000
Braylin Collins	WR	6'1, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7900

4. Early playing time available

Running backs Ryan Brumfield and Bronson Hill combined for 180 carries. Tight end Tyreese Russell was targeted by 60 passes, easily the most on the team. Receivers Tyler Allen and David Gibson were targeted by 61 passes. All are gone.

Losing your leading anything (rusher, receiver, whatever) isn't a good thing, but it's hard to worry much about EMU's losses. Hill was once a potential star but was mostly ineffective in 2014; he and Brumfield combined to average just 3.9 yards per carry. Russell was an exciting option in a TE/H-back role; he caught 12 for 211 yards against WMU and Ball State. Still, he only caught about three passes per game on average. Allen and Gibson caught just 25 of those 61 passes for just 310 yards. Those are replaceable numbers.

Creighton was able to offer early playing time in his first full recruiting cycle, and a few interesting prospects listened to that pitch.

Breck Turner, a three-star recruit via the Composite and an insanely productive high school running back (5,682 yards and 79 touchdowns in three seasons) signed in February, as did two more 247Sports three-stars at receiver: Kezio Snelling and Isaac Holder. JUCO transfer Cody Tuttle should get an early shot at the void left by Russell, and Indiana transfer Kevin Davis has plenty of athletic potential. Add a couple of high-ceiling redshirt freshmen (receiver Lemar Harris, running back Shaq Vann), and there's a level of upside that we haven't seen in Ypsilanti in recent memory.

There's also almost no experience whatsoever. Seniors Darius Jackson (who lined up both in the backfield and out wide last year), Dustin Creel, and Kris Strange are back to play leadership roles (and produce marginal numbers) while we wait for these young options to develop.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	99.0	2.93	3.37	34.8%	62.2%	22.6%	48.7	8.2%	13.2%
Rank	80	65	57	106	103	110	126	118	124

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Lincoln Hansen	RT					39
Campbell Allison	C					28
Robert McFadden	LT					22
Andrew Wylie	LG	6'6, 320	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7818	21
Darien Terrell	RG	6'4, 325	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7696	14
Matt Thornton	RT	6'4, 313	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7878	4
Dwayne Brown	C					2
Darian Miles	LG	6'2, 290	Sr.	NR	N/A	0
Jordan Erbes	RG					0
Ka'John Armstrong	LT	6'4, 270	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8078
Dakota Tallman	OL	6'5, 300	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7867

5. What was a relative strength...

...is now starting over a bit. Compared to the rest of the offensive stats, EMU's line numbers were pretty good: 80th in Adj. Line Yards, 65th in standard downs line yards per carry. Some of that is due to the sudden midseason impact of Reggie Bell, but hey, Bell was partially responsible for the awful sack rates, too. Regardless, the line wasn't completely awful, and it must now replace a three-year starter and two two-year starters, not to mention two other pieces from a thin two-deep.

The Eagles do return three juniors who have combined for 39 career starts, so all is not lost, but three-star redshirt freshmen Ka'John Armstrong and Dakota Tallman (who is indeed tall!) better be ready to contribute quickly, otherwise there might not be enough bodies to fill in a second string. Injuries could wreck this unit in short order.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.05	125	IsoPPP+	72.7	127
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.6%	107	Succ. Rt. +	90.3	107
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.0	113	Off. FP+	94.0	123
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.8	109	Redzone S&P+	87.0	117
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.0		ACTUAL	12.0	-4.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	121	121	113	127
RUSHING	116	127	118	128
PASSING	119	110	96	115
Standard Downs		122	113	127
Passing Downs		116	116	118

Q1 Rk	128	1st Down Rk	124
Q2 Rk	119	2nd Down Rk	125
Q3 Rk	55	3rd Down Rk	97
Q4 Rk	71

6. Depth will take time

You have to give Creighton a little bit of credit for playing the long game. He redshirted Armstrong and Tallman, two rare jewels in the 2014 class. He also redshirted some defenders who may have been able to contribute: linebacker Kyle Rachwal, defensive backs Ross Williams and Tim Gordon, etc. Knowing these true freshmen could contribute more to a good EMU team in 2018 than a doomed 2014 squad, he stuck them in the weight room and in the scout team. Makes sense.

It also made a thin defense thinner. Defensive coordinator Brad McCaslin had basically three linemen and four linebackers for a 3-3-5 defense, and the reserves were only a little bit deeper in the secondary.

McCaslin will have a few more options this time. All three starters return on the line, and two three-star freshman tackles might join the rotation. (Or they might redshirt.) Every linebacker returns and will be joined by Rachwal and JUCO transfer Anthony Brown. And in the secondary, where three starters must be replaced, four returnees played decent roles last year, and the competition should be strong with the addition of Williams and Gordon, JUCO transfers Ikie Calderon and Juan Giraldo, and three-star freshman Brody Hoying.

Options are good; EMU had almost none but might have a few this fall. That doesn't guarantee defensive improvement, but it offers promise.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	88.9	3.12	3.77	41.5%	75.9%	19.2%	67.9	1.9%	5.1%
Rank	109	90	109	95	112	67	110	122	108

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Pat O'Connor	DT	6'4, 274	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7478	12	45.5	6.6%	14.0	7.5	0	2	2	0
Jeremiah Harris	DE	6'5, 235	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7511	11	20.5	3.0%	1.5	1.0	0	1	1	0
Mike Brown	NT	6'2, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	11	20.0	2.9%	2.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Travis Linser	DT					6	8.5	1.2%	1.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Mike Steals	DE					8	6.5	0.9%	1.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Arron Pipkins	NT	6'1, 270	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	5	5.0	0.7%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Derrick Dunlap	NT	6'0, 291	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7533	3	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Deshai Powell	DT	6'2, 272	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7533	1	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Clay Dawson	DE	6'4, 225	Sr.	NR	N/A
Lion King	DE	6'4, 205	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000
Kwanii Figueroa	DT	6'2, 277	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8100
Nick Dillon	DT	6'2, 283	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8215

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Great Ibe	BUCK	6'0, 230	Sr.	NR	N/A	12	100.0	14.5%	11.0	0.5	0	2	1	0
Anthony Zappone	MIKE	6'2, 250	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7718	11	66.0	9.6%	9.0	1.0	0	3	1	0
Hunter Matt	STUD	6'0, 241	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7757	11	38.5	5.6%	3.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Amos Houston	MIKE	6'0, 216	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7200	9	17.0	2.5%	2.5	0.0	0	1	2	0
Nathan Adams	MIKE	6'1, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333	8	9.0	1.3%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Gabriel Guilbee-Rodriguez	STUD	6'0, 240	Jr.	NR	N/A	2	5.0	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Lavonte Robinson	BUCK	5'8, 242	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8056	2	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kyle Rachwal	LB	6'3, 215	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8000
Anthony Brown	LB	5'11, 205	Jr.	NR	0.7633

7. Attacking the run

EMU's defense basically did one thing well last year: stuff the run (sometimes). The Eagles' Stuff Rate (run stops in the backfield) of 19.2 percent was perfectly decent, and opponents' high run rates on passing downs suggest EMU had a pass rush worth minding. Tackle Pat O'Connor had 14 tackles for loss (7.5 of which were sacks), and linebackers Great Ibe and Anthony Zappone combined for 18.5 non-sack tackles for loss. It appears they can attack the line of scrimmage.

Of course, any play that didn't go really well went really poorly. As decent as the Eagles may have been at stuffing the run, they also allowed the biggest big run plays in the country. They allowed 79 rushes of at least 10 yards (98th in the country), 27 of at least 20 (115th), and 16 of at least 30 (123rd). Adjusting for opponent, those are wretched figures.

So yeah, down-to-down consistency needs some work. But if improved depth means an improved baseline, McCaslin might be able to push some fun buttons in attacking situations.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kevin Johnson	WHIP					11	78.5	11.4%	4	0	2	4	1	0
Jason Beck	S	6'1, 195	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7833	12	64.0	9.3%	1	0	1	3	0	0
Willie Creear	CB					12	46.0	6.7%	1.5	0	1	7	0	0
Pudge Cotton	ROV					12	40.0	5.8%	3.5	0	1	0	0	1
DaQuan Pace	CB	5'10, 175	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7552	10	37.0	5.4%	1.5	0	1	9	0	0
Jalen Williams	WHIP	5'10, 200	Sr.	NR	N/A	8	21.0	3.1%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Ray Tillman	CB	5'11, 193	Sr.	NR	N/A	6	14.0	2.0%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Gary White Jr.	ROV					5	10.5	1.5%	2	0	0	0	0	0
Tyrie Mack	CB	5'11, 180	Jr.	NR	N/A	3	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Bossard	S	6'2, 210	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7917
Ross Williams	DB	5'11, 160	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000
Tim Gordon	DB	5'11, 175	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000
Ikie Calderon	S	5'9, 188	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7300
Juan Giraldo	S	5'11, 195	So.	NR	0.7300
Brody Hoying	S	5'11, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8031

8. A new secondary

You don't find many double-digit rankings in the defense numbers above. EMU was 100th or worse in just about everything. But the Eagles ranked only ("only") 96th in Passing Success Rate+, defensing a decent number of passes. This is pretty much a requirement of a 3-3-5 scheme, and players like WHIP Kevin Johnson and corners Willie Creear and DaQuan Pace were effective at times.

Johnson and Creear are gone, but Pace and sophomore safety Jason Beck do return. So that's something. But they fill only two spots in a five-man secondary. Seniors Jalen Williams and Ray Tillman will have to play larger roles, but newcomers will determine whether EMU's secondary is able to build off of last year's not-completely-awful numbers or whether an improved front six will simply be matched by a lesser back five.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Owen Dubiel			61	40.0	4	8	20	45.9%
Austin Barnes	5'11, 218	Jr.	22	44.6	0	3	4	31.8%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Brendan Renius	6'1, 239	Jr.	38	61.8	22	1	57.9%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Dylan Mulder	6'0, 186	Sr.	20-22	5-6	83.3%	3-6	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Tyler Allen	KR			34	18.1	0
Kenny Jones	KR	6'2, 190	So.	5	18.6	0
Jaleel Canty	PR			5	9.4	0
Dustin Creel	PR	6'2, 203	Sr.	4	5.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	120
Field Goal Efficiency	64
Punt Return Efficiency	128
Kick Return Efficiency	110
Punt Efficiency	110
Kickoff Efficiency	100
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	41

9. Reverse order

A good place-kicker is the final piece of a good special teams unit. You need a good punter, someone who can add five to 10 yards to a bad offense's gains on each possession, first. Then you need a good return man, someone who can either set up decent field position after scores or give your offense an extra few yards of field position after punts. Then you need a sure-footed kickoffs guy to make sure your opponents are starting inside the 30 after you do score.

Then you need a guy who can make field goals. The three-pointers only matter in close games, and you have to create close games first.

So EMU's special teams unit was backwards last year: iffy punting, awful returns, iffy kickoffs, good place-kicking. Dylan Mulder was 3-for-6 on field goals longer than 40 yards, but EMU was only close enough to scoring to attempt 12 field goals (and the low number of attempts wasn't a product of fourth-down conversion attempts -- only six teams attempted fewer fourth-down conversions than EMU).

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
5-Sep	Old Dominion	108
12-Sep	at Wyoming	113
26-Sep	Army	121
3-Oct	at LSU	22
?	Akron	105
?	Ball State	91
?	Massachusetts	120
?	Western Michigan	56
?	at Central Michigan	85
?	at Miami (Ohio)	103
?	at Northern Illinois	69
?	at Toledo	59

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-46.6% (125)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	123 / 119
2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-18 / -7.3
2014 TO Luck/Game	-4.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (5, 8)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	1.7 (0.3)

10. The Knope principle

The Parks and Recreation series finale airs tonight; though it developed far beyond the main character, the optimism of Amy Poehler's Leslie Knope was the sun around which it revolved. In season one, it was something worth mocking; in season seven, its survival is worth celebrating.

There is optimism within every fan base. There is a pocket of fans looking for reasons to celebrate, however brief. There is a pocket that cares loudly. They are why this preview series has become an annual labor of love for me, and they are why I hope EMU has success under Chris Creighton. For 40 years, they have come to Rynearson Stadium with almost no realistic hope of payoff. And to be sure, they do still come: 11,886 for the Buffalo game, 19,654 for NIU, 19,613 for CMU, 15,226 for Toledo (and yes, 8,748 for Morgan State). Though those numbers include visiting contingents of whatever size, there is a core.

Fans got a short glimpse of what a good EMU might look like in a few years, and the goal for 2015 is a longer glimpse. This isn't going to be a very good team, but it could be a bad team that plays like it did against Buffalo a few times instead of only once. The Eagles host four teams that ranked 105th or worse in F/+ last year, so if the good performances are well-timed, the win total could trump last year's.

Get Reggie Bell some more experience, and give him some high-upside weapons, be they freshmen, redshirt freshmen, or veterans in larger roles. Figure out a core for the offensive line. Prep replacements for a front six that will probably be starting four seniors. Find weapons for Brad McCaslin. Build, build, build. That's what you do in a Factory, right?