The big 2015 New Mexico State football guide: Year 3 of a 4- (or more) year rebuild

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. A monk's path to success in Las Cruces

If you're playing the career mode on your sports video game of choice, the first season or two of a rebuilding job can be completed in a couple of hours. You zip through the games, you focus on recruiting (because it's more fun than losing games), and after a small investment of time, you're on to the third or fourth year, when you start to win.

And if you're slightly good at the game, you are going to start to win by the third or fourth year. (And if you're not good, you quit and start a new career with Alabama.)

New Mexico State quietly hired Doug Martin to replace Dewayne Walker on February 1, 2013, just more than two years ago. Martin is taking an admirable path to success (however you define that) in Las Cruces, signing high school athletes almost entirely, taking on few transfers, and trying to build depth the more sustainable way. It takes a monk's patience to pull this off.

The results have been predictably awful. Walker left the cupboard bare, and against FBS teams, Martin is 2-20. The Aggies beat 1-11 Idaho by eight in 2013, beat 1-11 Georgia State by three in 2014, took down two FCS teams, and that's it.

The Aggies were also young as hell in 2014, predictably so. They featured a new quarterback, a new running back, a new No. 1 receiver, and a plethora of freshmen and sophomores throughout the defense. There were some standout performances -- running back Larry Rose III rushed for 1,102 yards as a freshman, Teldrick Morgan caught 75 passes for 891 yards, three freshman linebackers combined for 168.5 tackles and 10 tackles for loss -- but after a semi-encouraging start, the freshmen hit a wall, the quarterback kept throwing picks, and the program's lack of depth was exposed.

NMSU won the first two games of the year and looked competitive in home losses to New Mexico and Georgia Southern, but the Aggies were possibly the worst team in the country over the second half of the season.

In a video game, your young guys get fed to the wolves, build experience, then become the wolves. It doesn't always work in real life, with real 18-22-year-olds who don't tend to enjoy losing. But Martin will field an infinitely more experienced team this fall, and he'll easily field the deepest squad of his tenure, one that actually features more than 80 scholarship players for the first time in quite a while.

In my 2014 preview, I said Martin was building for 2016; well, it's not 2016 yet, is it? But NMSU should improve this fall, and not only from a "can't get much worse" perspective.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 | Adj. Record: 0-12 | Final F/+ Rk: 124
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
28-Aug	Cal Poly	N/A	28-10	W	44%	-3.7	94%
6-Sep	at Georgia State	122	34-31	W	15%	-24.1	48%
13-Sep	at UTEP	90	24-42	L	5%	-38.8	0%
20-Sep	New Mexico	94	35-38	L	15%	-24.1	16%
27-Sep	at LSU	22	7-63	L	1%	-57.2	0%
4-Oct	Georgia Southern	57	28-36	L	36%	-8.5	12%
11-Oct	at Troy	126	24-41	L	5%	-39.3	3%
18-Oct	at Idaho	112	17-29	L	5%	-38.6	3%
1-Nov	Texas State	95	29-37	L	31%	-11.4	27%
8-Nov	UL-Lafayette	72	16-44	L	8%	-33.4	0%
22-Nov	UL-Monroe	97	17-30	L	11%	-28.4	9%
29-Nov	at Arkansas State	66	35-68	L	10%	-30.3	1%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	21.5	107	42.9	128
Points Per Game	24.5	95	39.1	121

2. No staying power

If you look at the F/+ progression chart, you see a slight upward tick for 2014. NMSU's efficiency-based offense clicked just enough (6.9 yards per play against UTEP, 6.3 against Idaho, 6.4 against Texas State and Arkansas State) to improve from 114th in Off. S&P+ to 107th, and that was able to offset a bad defense getting a little worse.

One new thing I'm incorporating for previews this year is a general percentile performance for each game -- where did your level of play in a given week rate from a national perspective (using a concept you probably remember from standardized tests in school)?

As the season wore on, depth issues became glaring. NMSU played five games at the 15th percentile or higher, but four came in the first six games of the year. In the second half, NMSU was one of the two or three worst teams in FBS.

• Average percentile performance, first 6 games: 19% (adjusted scoring margin: -26.1)
• Average percentile performance, last 6 games: 12% (adjusted scoring margin: -30.2)

This fade will happen when you've got a young squad, and it will happen when you've got major depth issues. NMSU had both. The 2015 Aggies will have better depth; if nothing else, that means they will be able to maintain their level of play better ... whatever that level may be.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.81	87	IsoPPP+	79.7	109
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.2%	80	Succ. Rt. +	92.3	97
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	32.8	116	Def. FP+	94.0	120
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.1	84	Redzone S&P+	87.1	104
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.0		ACTUAL	34	+11.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	52	111	105	112
RUSHING	52	120	115	118
PASSING	55	89	79	98
Standard Downs		97	81	102
Passing Downs		124	121	123

Q1 Rk	117	1st Down Rk	108
Q2 Rk	89	2nd Down Rk	100
Q3 Rk	112	3rd Down Rk	116
Q4 Rk	88

3. You can see what NMSU wants to be

With spread old-hand Gregg Brandon running the offense, it was obvious what NMSU was attempting to do. The Aggies played at a high pace, threw quick passes from side to side, and hoped to gash defenses with a run up the middle.

And while there were poor games, they succeeded to some degree. New quarterback Tyler Rogers was reasonably accurate -- 34-for-48 against Georgia Southern, 22-for-33 against Troy, 36-for-52 against Texas State -- and when the Aggies were able to generate first downs, they were able to operate at the tempo Brandon prefers.

The offense was too young to be consistent, however. Rogers was a sophomore -- one who threw at least two picks in nine of 12 games -- leading rusher Larry Rose III was a freshman, leading receiver Teldrick Morgan was a sophomore.

Plus, the awful defense assured that NMSU was constantly starting drives inside the 30. But with a clear identity and a solid offensive line that featured both a spectacular sack rate (due in part to quick passing) and an all-conference center (Valerian Ume-Ezeoke), the offense improved.

NMSU will have two primary departures to account for this fall. Ume-Ezeoke, nearly a four-year starter, is the only loss up front, but he's a big one. And Brandon left to replace Bob Stitt as head coach at Colorado School of Mines. (When you think about the lifespan of the modern spread offense, replacing Brandon with Stitt is kind of like the Star Trek franchise losing Chris Pine and replacing him with William Shatner. This should actually happen, by the way.)

Doug Martin has been an offensive coordinator at East Tennessee State, East Carolina, Kent State, NMSU, and Boston College; it appears he'll be calling plays in Brandon's absence. That might mean more running -- especially if Andrew Allen or well-touted redshirt freshman Nick Jeanty overtake Rogers for the starting job -- but one figures NMSU's offense will look similar.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Tyler Rogers	6'3, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	268	436	2779	19	23	61.5%	9	2.0%	6.1
Andrew Allen	6'1, 200	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7827	10	16	120	0	1	62.5%	1	5.9%	6.5
Cassius Corley	6'1, 185	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7710
Nick Jeanty	6'2, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8115

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Larry Rose III	RB	5'11, 180	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7633	186	1102	9	5.9	8.0	38.2%	3	1
Xavier Hall	RB	5'8, 182	Jr.	N/A	N/A	105	342	5	3.3	2.6	25.7%	0	0
Brandon Betancourt	RB					69	322	2	4.7	4.0	36.2%	0	0
Tyler Rogers	QB	6'3, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	60	260	2	4.3	3.2	53.3%	9	6
Andrew Allen	QB	6'1, 200	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7827	21	165	1	7.9	11.5	47.6%	3	1
Marquette Washington	RB	5'10, 215	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8093	11	23	0	2.1	2.9	9.1%	1	1
Brandyn Leonard	RB	6'0, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Teldrick Morgan	WR	6'0, 185	Jr.	N/A	N/A	102	75	891	73.5%	24.2%	59.8%	8.7	6	8.8	92.8
Joshua Bowen	WR	5'10, 175	Sr.	N/A	N/A	60	41	336	68.3%	14.2%	63.3%	5.6	-154	5.6	35.0
Joseph Matthews	WR					55	37	398	67.3%	13.0%	49.1%	7.2	-45	7.2	41.5
Jerrel Brown	WR					53	34	442	64.2%	12.6%	49.1%	8.3	31	8.1	46.0
Gregory Hogan	WR	6'1, 182	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	48	28	331	58.3%	11.4%	56.3%	6.9	-14	7.0	34.5
Adam Shapiro	WR					44	25	271	56.8%	10.4%	59.1%	6.2	-39	6.2	28.2
Larry Rose III	RB	5'11, 180	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7633	29	23	172	79.3%	6.9%	55.2%	5.9	-96	6.0	17.9
Brandon Betancourt	RB					12	6	13	50.0%	2.8%	25.0%	1.1	-63	0.6	1.3
Andrew Dean	TE					9	4	14	44.4%	2.1%	55.6%	1.6	-38	1.6	1.5
Rayvean Moore	WR	5'10, 168	Jr.	N/A	N/A	3	2	15	66.7%	0.7%	33.3%	5.0	-9	6.5	1.6
Tyler Rogers	QB	6'3, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	2	1	11	50.0%	0.5%	50.0%	5.5	-2	4.7	1.1
Ralston Compton	WR		So.	2 stars (5.4)	N/A	2	1	3	50.0%	0.5%	0.0%	1.5	-10	N/A	0.3
Xavier Hall	RB	5'8, 182	Jr.	N/A	N/A	2	1	2	50.0%	0.5%	100.0%	1.0	-11	N/A	0.2
Tyrian Taylor	WR	5'8, 170	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7633
Clayton Granch	TE	6'3, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7533
Isaiah McIntyre	WR	6'0, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7758
OJ Clark	WR	5'7, 150	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7755

4. Some upside and reinforcements

The two stats I stick next to yards per carry -- highlight yards per opportunity and opportunity rate -- are able to show you how a runner reached his overall averages. An opportunity rate over 40 percent shows you that the back was efficient, and a highlight yards average over about 5.0 hints at explosiveness.

We see that Larry Rose III was slightly inefficient, which is quite common for a freshman. But when you compare his 38 percent opportunity rate to that of other running backs -- 26 percent for Xavier Hall, 36 for Brandon Betancourt, nine percent for Marquette Washington -- you see that he was able to make more of his blocking than his counterparts. And when you look at his 8.0 highlight yards per opportunity average, you find that he was all sorts of explosive.

He also peaked late, which is even more exciting, considering his youth. Over the first six games, he averaged 4.2 yards per carry and missed two games with injury. Over the last six, he gained 812 yards (6.9 per carry) and scored seven touchdowns. He put up 181 yards against Texas State and 229 against ULM. The rest of the offense couldn't turn his gains into sustained success, but he was a bright spot, and he's got plenty of eligibility remaining.

Teldrick Morgan took the opposite path. He erupted early -- eight catches for 202 yards against UTEP, nine for 122 against New Mexico, and a game-winning score against Georgia State -- before struggling down the stretch. These two give the quarterback some all-conference-caliber targets, and both are young enough to improve.

That was pretty much it in 2014. Hall and the other backs were beyond ineffective, Joshua Bowen didn't break many tackles as a slot type in the quick-passing offense, and until Greg Hogan's nine-catch, 162-yard, three-score breakout against Arkansas State, the rest of the corps hadn't offered much.

As you see above, NMSU ranked 97th in Standard Downs S&P+ but only 124th in Passing Downs S&P+. That suggests the Aggies had the weapons to execute the gameplan but didn't have enough playmaking depth to bail themselves out of trouble.

The supporting cast should improve. If Hall and Washington are unable to deliver much to spell Rose, incoming freshman Brandyn Leonard could bring something to the party. But between Hogan, JUCO transfers Tyrian Taylor and Clayton Grinch, and speedy freshmen Isaiah McIntyre and O.J. Clark, a strong No. 2 target should emerge. Hell, a solid No. 3 could, too.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	84.6	2.62	3.2	36.5%	72.1%	20.9%	361.5	0.9%	2.6%
Rank	117	106	74	91	30	90	1	2	3

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Valerian Ume-Ezeoke	C					43	1st All-Sun Belt
Andy Cunningham	RT	6'3, 308	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	29
Isaiah Folasa-Lutui	LG	6'3, 309	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8110	24
Houston Clemente	LT	6'4, 303	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	13
Abram Holland	RG	6'2, 270	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	11
Thomas McGwire	RT	6'5, 282	So.	N/A	N/A	9
Dezmond Candelaria	RG	6'3, 295	So.	N/A	N/A	4
Peter Forman	LT					0
Ryan Arbelaez	LG					0
Jamin Smith	C	6'3, 275	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7585	0
Antonio Ortega	RT	6'3, 293	Jr.	N/A	N/A	0
Anthony McMeans	OL	6'3, 310	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7400	0

5. The line is a team strength

I'm not going to try to tell you this is an amazing offensive line. The Aggies did rank 117th in Adj. Line Yards, and a lot of the success in pass protection came from the scheme.

Still, NMSU was excellent in short-yardage situations, and the sack rate was not only solid, it was among the best in the country. The line had at least something to do with that.

The size and experience here are impressive. Six players return with starting experience (90 career starts), five are at least 6'3, and four are at least 295 pounds. Ume-Ezeoke is a tough player to replace, but the left side looks strong, and it does appear that Rose is adept at taking advantage of the holes he's given. With Rose carrying more of the load, I would assume NMSU will improve on last year's No. 120 ranking in Rushing S&P+.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.84	61	IsoPPP+	79.4	114
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	51.1%	124	Succ. Rt. +	80.3	123
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.3	104	Off. FP+	95.0	116
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	5.1	118	Redzone S&P+	83.7	120
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	13.0		ACTUAL	21.0	+8.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	116	124	125	117
RUSHING	128	124	123	121
PASSING	6	116	124	109
Standard Downs		123	128	119
Passing Downs		110	104	117

Q1 Rk	117	1st Down Rk	118
Q2 Rk	125	2nd Down Rk	118
Q3 Rk	124	3rd Down Rk	115
Q4 Rk	103

6. The stopgap didn't stop gaps

When you hire a nearly 50-year veteran as your defensive coordinator, you're not expecting him to stick around too long. Martin brought Larry Coyer to Las Cruces last year; Coyer's career began as a Marshall grad assistant in 1965 and featured stops as defensive coordinator for Iowa State, Pitt, the Denver Broncos, and the Indianapolis Colts. He has enough experience for an entire coaching staff, but he didn't have answers last fall.

With an absurdly young defense and almost no playmakers, Coyer's first and only Aggie defense was built around bend-don't-break principles. The Aggies were decent at preventing big plays, but a bend-don't-break only works if you occasionally stiffen and aren't a five-yard sieve from end zone to end zone. NMSU had one of the worst red zone defenses in the country.

Martin replaced him with linebackers coach Zane Vance. Vance was an assistant for Martin at Kent State, too, and he will look to increase pressure with various looks and zone blitzes, things that worked well at Kent State. Whether he has the pieces to make that work in 2015 remains to be seen. (Signs point to no.)

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	80.4	3.77	3.60	50.2%	84.3%	12.9%	20.2	1.6%	1.0%
Rank	126	128	91	128	125	125	128	126	128

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jay Eakins	DE					12	45.5	6.0%	6.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Kalei Auelua	DT	6'2, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	N/A	12	26.0	3.4%	2.5	0.5	0	0	1	0
Josh Gibbs	DT	6'5, 255	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	7	11.0	1.5%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Agomuo	DE	6'3, 247	So.	2 stars (5.2)	N/A	11	21.5	2.9%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Stody Bradley	DT	6'2, 240	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	10	13.5	1.8%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Stephen Meredith	DE	6'3, 240	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	N/A	8	11.0	1.5%	3.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Noah Brown	DT	6'1, 235	Jr.	N/A	N/A	5	8.5	1.1%	2.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Kourtland Busby	DE	6'3, 235	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7578	7	6.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jassavia Reese	DE	6'3, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859
Derek Watson	DE	6'4, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Rodney Butler	MLB	6'1, 212	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7894	12	88.5	11.7%	7.5	0.0	1	1	2	0
Derek Ibekwe	SLB	6'0, 214	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956	12	73.5	9.7%	4.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dalton Herrington	WLB	6'2, 195	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7594	12	64.0	8.5%	3.0	1.0	1	1	1	0
JB Copeland	LB	6'2, 205	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752	9	31.0	4.1%	3.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Clint Barnard	SLB				N/A	11	19.0	2.5%	1.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Dior Moore	MLB				N/A	10	6.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Billy Nipp	LB	5'11, 205	So.	N/A	N/A	5	4.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dalton Rocha	WLB	6'1, 232	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	6	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Will Clement	LB	6'3, 195	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7733
Javahn Ferguson	LB	6'1, 210	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8094

7. Too young and small to succeed

Good news: New Mexico State returns seven of its top eight tacklers on the defensive line, the top four at linebacker, and six of the top seven in a secondary that was pretty decent at preventing big plays.

Bad news: the Aggies were woefully undersized and outmanned in the front seven, and experience doesn't automatically fix that.

NMSU basically played four defensive ends up front, with 240-pound Kalei Auelua and Stody Bradley starting in the middle for much of the season. While an offseason in the weight room can help with bulk, it's only going to help so much. It's obvious why NMSU had one of the worst run defenses in the country, and it doesn't appear size is going to improve terribly much.

The linebackers were undersized, too, but they did seem to have speed. Considering a lot of their time was spent getting run over by linemen who were reaching the second level of the defense, it's impressive that the top four linebackers combined for 17.5 tackles for loss and a handful of forced fumbles and passes defensed. Their job was impossible, and it's going to be pretty damn difficult in 2015 as well, but Rodney Butler and a load of sophomores did prove that they can make plays if given the opportunity.

Zone blitzes and deception make a lot of sense for a unit this drastically undersized. If you can't push 'em, fool 'em. The problem is that deception doesn't work as well against the run as it does against the pass, and there's nothing saying NMSU is going to be able to force anybody to pass.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kawe Johnson	FS	5'8, 177	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	12	59.5	7.9%	3	0	1	0	3	0
Lewis Hill	CB	5'10, 175	Sr.	N/A	N/A	12	43.5	5.8%	0	0	1	4	0	0
Winston Rose	CB				N/A	12	41.5	5.5%	1	0	4	2	0	0
Jacob Nwangwa	FS	6'0, 177	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7600	11	40.0	5.3%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jaden Wright	SS	6'0, 175	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7883	10	25.0	3.3%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Adaryan Jones	CB	6'1, 170	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7883	9	19.5	2.6%	0.5	0	0	2	0	0
King Davis III	DB	6'1, 200	Jr.	N/A	N/A	6	16.0	2.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Travaughn Colwell	SS				N/A	11	11.0	1.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kedeem Thomas-Davis	DB	5'9, 170	Sr.	N/A	N/A	5	5.0	0.7%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jerrion Burton	CB	5'11, 163	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	7	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	1	0	0

8. Is the secondary ready for more pressure?

If Vance does intend to get more aggressive, that will put pressure on the secondary. In an effort to improve your success rate and make stops behind the line, you risk big plays, and while the secondary was impressive considering its youth last year -- of the top seven tacklers, one was a senior, one was a junior, two were sophomores, and three were freshmen -- we'll see if the Aggie secondary is good enough to take on a heavier load.

The secondary is also undersized, but that's not much of a concern to me. At 5'8, 177, Kawe Johnson was able to force three fumbles and make three stops behind the line of scrimmage, and speed matters more than size in the secondary, especially in the Sun Belt.

This secondary might not be amazing, but it was sound in 2014, and it's more experienced this time around. It is, at the very least, the least of the defensive concerns.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Stephen Witkowski		Sr.	39	40.9	3	9	12	53.8%
Kelly Kingseed			14	34.8	0	2	4	42.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Maxwell Johnson			33	57.8	10	1	30.3%
Alex Louthan	5'10, 190	Sr.	23	54.8	2	3	8.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Maxwell Johnson			37-38	6-8	75.0%	1-4	25.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Teldrick Morgan	KR	6'0, 185	Jr.	15	22.7	0
Gregory Hogan	KR	6'1, 182	So.	11	19.8	0
Gregory Hogan	PR	6'1, 182	So.	10	4.3	0
Teldrick Morgan	PR	6'0, 185	Jr.	6	17.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	123
Field Goal Efficiency	116
Punt Return Efficiency	57
Kick Return Efficiency	52
Punt Efficiency	127
Kickoff Efficiency	121
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	73

9. Depth bleeds into special teams

When you have depth issues on offense and (especially) defense, that means you have bad coverage units on special teams. There just aren't enough athletes to go around.

Sure enough, NMSU's coverage units were abysmal. Maxwell Johnson was a decent kicker -- solid inside 40 yards, decent touchback rate on kickoffs -- and punter Stephen Witkowski averaged nearly 41 yards per boot, but the Aggies still ranked worse than 120th in Punt and Kick efficiency. It assured that NMSU's special teams unit as a whole was poor despite solid returns from Teldrick Morgan and Greg Hogan.

At the very least, if the second-string linebackers, defensive backs, and receivers are more trustworthy this year, that should make the kick coverage better, which could help drastically in the field position battle. With an efficient offense but an awful defense, special teams will need to make positive contributions.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 Rk
5-Sep	at Florida	32
19-Sep	UTEP	90
3-Oct	at New Mexico	94
10-Oct	at Ole Miss	5
?	Arkansas State	66
?	Georgia State	122
?	Idaho	112
?	Troy	126
?	at Georgia Southern	57
?	at Texas State	95
?	at UL-Lafayette	72
?	at UL-Monroe	97

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-51.7% (127)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	127 / 115
2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin	-13 / -10.0
2014 TO Luck/Game	-1.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	17 (8, 9)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	2.1 (-0.1)

This really is a building-for-2016 situation, and the expectations should be set accordingly. If they win a couple of games, find their quarterback, and at least don't regress defensively (and yes, it is technically possible to regress), then that's probably enough for now. I admire Martin's refusal to take shortcuts, but that means the road's awfully long.

In a roundabout way, Martin's no-shortcuts approach in his New Mexico State rebuild is good for job stability. "Hey, it's very clear we're going to stink for a while, but just wait until year 4." And unless Zane Vance pulls off a minor miracle, with end-sized tackles, safety-sized linebackers, and slot receiver-sized safeties, the defense still won't have enough size or depth.

The offense could keep NMSU in some games. We'll see if Tyler Rogers is able to retain the starting job, or if his mistakes open the door for a younger guy. Regardless, Larry Rose, Teldrick Morgan, and some exciting youngsters give the Aggies enough depth to take advantage of a solid line no matter who the quarterback is. And assuming Martin doesn't change much, the intended efficiency attack could look efficient a good percentage of the time.

With Georgia State, Idaho, and Troy coming to Las Cruces in conference play, NMSU will have a chance to surpass last year's win total; actually, it's not a reach to see the Aggies matching the win total of Martin's last two years combined.

But the biggest game comes right up front. UTEP visits on September 19, and that will determine whether the goal for the season is three wins or about five. Prove you have enough offense to take down the decent Miners, and you have enough to do some damage in the Sun Belt. Lose, and you're looking to go 3-9. And hey, 3-9 is improvement.

Still, if Martin is going to experience a breakthrough year at NMSU, it will come in 2016 at the earliest. While the Aggies return 17 starters, they're young enough that they can expect to return another 16 or so in 2016.

If you're an NMSU fan, you are the patient type. The impatient ones jumped off the bandwagon long ago, if they ever jumped on to begin with. NMSU should reward that patience with hints of upside in 2015, but the payoff is still at least another year away.