The big 2015 Kent State football guide: Hoping for a fairer year

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1. A trying year, to say the least

A MAC team's reward for making the right hire and winning some games is getting to make another hire. This year's MAC Life Cycle fill-in-the-blank gets filled in by the good folks in Kent, Ohio:

In [2011], [Kent State] hired [Darrell Hazell], who broke through in a way that previous coach [Doug Martin] could not. The [Golden Flashes] showed promise in [Hazell's] first year, then erupted in his second, starting the season [10-1] and reaching the MAC title game before they [lost to NIU]. [Hazell] was hired away by [Purdue], and the [Flashes] were forced to start over again, especially when stars [Dri Archer and Roosevelt Nix] graduated as well.

Kent State's 2014 probably made sense: historically unsuccessful MAC program experiences breakthrough, loses coach, goes back to the back of the line. And to be sure, after the happy blip of 2012, Kent State reestablished a pretty clear curve.

There's nothing easy about winning at Kent State -- almost nobody has been able to do it. Since the great Don James left in 1974, 12 coaches have been hired. Eight left without producing a single winning record, 10 without attending a bowl. In one of the more fun out-of-nowhere stories, Hazell got the Golden Flashes to the MAC title game in 2012 and kept them in the AP polls for a few weeks. They were on the doorstep of taking what would become Northern Illinois' Orange Bowl bid. Hazell left for Purdue. KSU fell back onto the curve.

This all makes sense if you weren't paying attention. But it took a lot -- a lot -- for the Flashes to fall back the way they did.

First, second-hear head coach Paul Haynes battled pneumonia in spring practice. And when the season began, Kent was without star running back Trayion Durham (the thunder to Dri Archer's lightning), who was lost with injury. More injuries pared down the two-deep to dangerous levels, and a sprinkling of academic issues didn't help. And in the middle of everything, a teammate passed away.

Kent State starting center Jason Bitsko died unexpectedly Wednesday, the school announced. Bitsko was found unresponsive in his apartment by his roommate after he failed to show up to practice. He was 21.

It was later ruled that he died of natural causes associated with having "an enlarged heart."

And in the middle of all of this, the Golden Flashes had to play football. It shouldn't be a surprise that they didn't do it very well. They began 0-6 and finished 2-9.

There's good news, however: 2014's over. In theory, Kent State gets Durham back, along with a few other 2013 contributors who watched from the sidelines. Haynes signed what was a rather impressive recruiting class in February, and assuming a regression-to-the-mean when it comes to general injuries luck, the 2015 KSU two-deep should be deeper, faster, and more athletic.

And here's a little bit more good news: KSU had improved drastically by the time 2014 ended.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-9 | Adj. Record: 2-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 107
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	Ohio	106	14-17	L	39%	-6.3	51%
6-Sep	South Alabama	89	13-23	L	19%	-20.6	7%
13-Sep	at Ohio State	1	0-66	L	2%	-50.0	0%
27-Sep	at Virginia	39	13-45	L	8%	-33.2	0%
4-Oct	at Northern Illinois	69	14-17	L	29%	-13.0	8%
11-Oct	Massachusetts	120	17-40	L	15%	-23.9	8%
18-Oct	Army	121	39-17	W	78%	18.2	99%
25-Oct	at Miami (Ohio)	103	3-10	L	32%	-10.9	45%
4-Nov	Toledo	59	20-30	L	39%	-6.6	21%
12-Nov	at Bowling Green	98	20-30	L	49%	-0.4	63%
28-Nov	Akron	105	27-24	W	60%	5.8	73%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	20.5	113	30.2	79
Points Per Game	16.4	123	29.0	83

2. Undeniable improvement

Using the second-order win total, derived from adding up the Win Expectancy values above, Kent State played more like a 4-7 team than 2-9. That's a marginal compliment, but by looking at the bounces from each game, KSU had a better than 50 percent chance of beating Ohio (a 17-14 loss) and BGSU (30-20 loss) and a nearly 50 percent chance of beating Miami (10-3 loss). The team's turnovers luck, injuries luck, and coulda-shoulda-woulda luck were all bad.

But in the middle of all of this, there was an upward trend.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 4 games): 17% (record: 0-4)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 7 games): 43% (record: 2-5)

The Kent State-Buffalo game, canceled in late-November because of hellacious snow, would have pitted two of the hotter teams in the conference, as strange as that may sound.

With Durham likely back, along with quarterback Colin Reardon, four offensive line starters, and most of the first-string defense, it's not hard to think that a luckier, more seasoned Kent State team could take a few steps forward, both on paper and in the win column.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.76	110	IsoPPP+	81.5	110
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	36.2%	113	Succ. Rt. +	82.6	122
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.8	26	Def. FP+	105.0	20
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.3	122	Redzone S&P+	70.7	128
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.3		ACTUAL	21	+1.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	119	116	119	110
RUSHING	125	126	126	125
PASSING	61	100	100	97
Standard Downs		119	120	117
Passing Downs		97	115	87

Q1 Rk	125	1st Down Rk	112
Q2 Rk	101	2nd Down Rk	121
Q3 Rk	119	3rd Down Rk	60
Q4 Rk	80

3. All the worst aspects of a pass-first offense, none of the benefit

Perhaps out of preference, perhaps out of necessity, Kent State became an extreme pass-first offense. That wasn't a good thing.

With young running backs playing larger roles than anticipated, the Golden Flashes' run game was almost non-existent, which put too much pressure on quarterback Colin Reardon to make plays. He had efficient moments -- he was 27-for-40 for 360 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception against Army -- but despite extreme pass rates (which featured awful red-zone scoring numbers), there were none of the happy side effects.

There wasn't any sustained sense of passing to set up the run; running back Nick Holley did find more success over the last half of the season (first 6 games: 3.2 yards per carry; last 5 games: 5.2), but between two of his best games (26 combined carries for 190 yards against Toledo and Akron) came one of his worst (11 for 21 against BGSU).

There also wasn't any sustained semblance of efficiency. Despite averaging an efficiency-first 10.8 yards per completion, Reardon completed 65 percent of his passes three times in 11 games. He completed 54 percent or worse in six, and he threw a ridiculous 16 interceptions. Four interceptions sabotaged an otherwise promising game against Bowling Green, and ... 16! While averaging 10.8 yards per completion and rarely getting sacked!

Reardon must cut down on the mistakes, which could be problematic considering he's replacing both his go-to efficiency target (tight end Casey Pierce, with his 65 percent catch rate) and what was almost his only big-play weapon (Z-receiver Chris Humphrey, with his 12.5 yards per catch). But he'll probably have a stronger run game to lean on.

He'll also have a new offensive coordinator. Don Treadwell, former Michigan State offensive coordinator and Miami (Ohio) head coach, moves up after serving as running backs coach a year ago. He isn't as run-happy as the "former Michigan State offensive coordinator" moniker might have once suggested, but he did strive for balance (that he never really achieved) at Miami. And he'll have a large stable of interesting backs at his disposal, assuming he wants to run more.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Colin Reardon	6'1, 202	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	228	400	2466	14	16	57.0%	11	2.7%	5.8
Nathan Strock	6'2, 185	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7984	16	40	104	2	1	40.0%	7	14.9%	1.7
Mylik Mitchell	6'4, 181	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8200

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Trayion Durham (2013)	RB	6'1, 248	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8400	182	766	6	4.2	4.2	28.6%	N/A	N/A
Nick Holley	RB	5'10, 191	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333	125	516	3	4.1	5.2	32.0%	2	0
Anthony Meray	RB					49	150	1	3.1	5.1	24.5%	0	0
Colin Reardon	QB	6'1, 202	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	48	232	2	4.8	4.0	47.9%	2	2
Miles Hibbler	RB	5'11, 187	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7619	12	37	0	3.1	3.0	33.3%	0	0
Nathan Strock	QB	6'2, 185	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7984	8	89	0	11.1	15.7	50.0%	1	1
Ernest Calhoun	WR	5'6, 151	Jr.	NR	NR	6	-20	0	-3.3	5.5	16.7%	2	0
James Brooks	WR	5'9, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8371	4	24	0	6.0	14.1	50.0%	1	0
Raekwon James	RB	5'9, 185	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7744
P.J. Simmons	RB	5'11, 181	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8392
Myles Washington	RB	5'10, 210	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956

4. Hello again, identity

First things first: neither junior Nick Holley, nor sophomore Miles Hibbler, nor redshirt freshman Raekwon James, nor incoming freshman P.J. Simmons is likely to pull a strong Dri Archer impression.

And to be sure, a good portion of Trayion Durham's effectiveness came because defenses had to deal with both Durham's bowling ball impersonation and Archer's quickness. So with Durham healthy, that doesn't mean Kent State's run game is going to be super-dangerous. But there are options now.

Haynes had nice things to say about James in the offseason, and Simmons is one of the most prized recruits on the roster. But hopes will be mostly on Durham and Holley forming a lovely inside-outside combination. Holley had better success late in the season, which is intriguing.

And despite woeful full-season numbers, it's not a bad thing that of the nine linemen who finished 2014 with starting experience, eight return. (And of the 64 combined returning starts, 56 belong to players who will still have eligibility in 2016.) The right side of the line saw immense shuffling, but one year's uncertainty can be the next year's experience.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Casey Pierce	TE					94	61	658	64.9%	22.6%	60.6%	7.0	-78	7.0	82.4
Chris Humphrey	WR-Z					93	51	635	54.8%	22.4%	57.0%	6.8	-2	6.8	79.6
Ernest Calhoun	SLOT	5'6, 151	Jr.	NR	NR	50	33	319	66.0%	12.0%	52.0%	6.4	-78	6.3	40.0
Kris White	WR-X	6'1, 210	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7400	43	25	270	58.1%	10.3%	55.8%	6.3	-38	6.3	33.8
Nick Holley	RB	5'10, 191	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333	39	27	199	69.2%	9.4%	71.8%	5.1	-123	4.9	24.9
Josh Boyle	SLOT	5'9, 173	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	37	21	160	56.8%	8.9%	51.4%	4.3	-100	4.3	20.0
James Brooks	WR-X	5'9, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8371	34	16	283	47.1%	8.2%	35.3%	8.3	76	7.1	35.4
Anthony Meray	RB					9	5	28	55.6%	2.2%	66.7%	3.1	-34	2.7	3.5
Charles Chandler	WR-Z	6'2, 197	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	8	4	31	50.0%	1.9%	50.0%	3.9	-20	4.5	3.9
Miles Hibbler	RB	5'11, 187	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7619	4	0	0	0.0%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0	-6	N/A	0.0
William Woods	WR	5'9, 184	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	2	1	3	50.0%	0.5%	0.0%	1.5	-10	N/A	0.4
Brice Fackler	TE	6'3, 234	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7300
Antwan Dixon	WR	5'8, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8074
Conor Brumfield	TE	6'4, 235	Fr.	NR	0.8000

5. Half-full vs. half-empty

In last year's KSU preview, I noted that Reardon was good at passing-downs magic acts, which might be a sign of more all-around success in the future. In 2014, we saw similar traits -- KSU's IsoPPP+ ratings (which measure big plays) ranked 117th on standard downs but 87th on passing downs -- but the interceptions showed that Reardon's magic acts are risks that don't always pay off. His interception rate increased from a decent 2.8 percent in 2013 to an awful 4.0.

Reardon's numbers aren't guaranteed to improve in his third year. Pierce and Chris Humphrey combined for nearly half of KSU's targets in 2014, and their absence can't be spun as a good thing. But their production (combined: 6.9 yards per target) was replaceable with the right players.

Slot receiver Ernest Calhoun and then-freshman Kris White averaged 6.3 yards per target in more limited roles, and former star recruit James Brooks showed flashes, averaging a team-best 8.3 yards per target (though most of his damage came in two games: 10 catches for 184 yards against Virginia and Army, six catches for 99 yards against everybody else).

Though the top two are gone, KSU does return five who were targeted at least 34 times, and either of a pair of three-star freshmen (according to the Composite) could crack the rotation. If you're a glass-half-full person, you see a deep receiving corps combining with a more effective running game. If you're half-empty, you note that these returnees did next to nothing for most of last year and now have to take on much bigger roles.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	64.2	1.82	2.46	33.7%	58.6%	31.2%	159.2	3.4%	3.4%
Rank	127	127	117	114	114	127	14	31	7

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Terrell Johnson	RT					23
Reno Reda	LT	6'6, 292	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7619	17
Wayne Scott	LG	6'3, 320	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	16
Alex Nielsen	C	6'4, 294	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7585	11
Brock Macaulay	RT	6'5, 290	So.	NR	0.7933	6
Nathan Puthoff	RG	6'4, 296	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	5
Jim Katusha	LG	6'5, 290	Sr.	NR	NR	4
Anthony Pruitt	RG	6'2, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	4
Tad France	C	6'4, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7552	1
Jake Witucki	LT	6'5, 293	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8072	0
Bryce Gibbs	OL	6'4, 291	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7959
Chase Van Hoef	OL	6'4, 285	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8019

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.79	34	IsoPPP+	101.5	60
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.5%	88	Succ. Rt. +	98.4	75
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.6	104	Off. FP+	99.0	78
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.3	64	Redzone S&P+	96.1	78
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.3		ACTUAL	17.0	+0.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	90	65	75	60
RUSHING	109	60	69	49
PASSING	46	94	88	93
Standard Downs		74	84	58
Passing Downs		68	54	75

Q1 Rk	79	1st Down Rk	84
Q2 Rk	87	2nd Down Rk	79
Q3 Rk	81	3rd Down Rk	37
Q4 Rk	54

6. Minimal breakage

The offense didn't live up to its end of the bargain for most of the year, but the defense tried its best to make up the difference. The Golden Flashes ranked 79th in Def. S&P+, which wasn't as good as the strangely dominant 2010-12 run (43rd in 2010, 15th! in 2011, 58th in 2012) but represented as step forward.

The KSU defense wasn't disruptive -- in fact, it was one of the least disruptive Ds in the country, ranking 123rd in Adj. Sack Rate and 116th in Stuff Rate (run stops behind the line). But it pulled an effective bend-don't-break routine. The Flashes allowed greater than 5.9 yards per play just four times, all in the first six games of the year. They allowed just 388.0 yards per game, 5.1 yards per play, and 22.2 points per game in their last five contests. They also gave you a relatively low 4.3 points per scoring opportunity. You can work with that, at least as long as you've got a semi-competent offense.

That the defense pulled off improvement without at least one key piece (injured outside linebacker Devante' Strickland) was awfully impressive. Now, Strickland is scheduled to return, as are four of the top five linemen, the top four linebackers, and the top five defensive backs. Depth could be an issue, especially in the secondary, but on paper this defense should be at least as decent.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101.4	3.12	3.29	43.6%	77.5%	15.2%	53.2	3.1%	2.5%
Rank	54	90	69	118	119	116	123	100	126

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jon Cunningham	NT	6'0, 295	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	11	25.5	3.9%	3.5	1.0	0	0	1	0
Terence Waugh	DE	6'1, 250	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7883	9	25.0	3.8%	3.0	1.5	0	1	0	0
Nate Terhune	DT	6'4, 270	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	11	24.0	3.6%	6.0	3.5	0	2	0	0
Richard Gray	DL					9	22.0	3.3%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jontey Byrd	DT	5'10, 275	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	10	20.5	3.1%	2.0	1.0	1	0	0	0
Nate Vance	DE					9	17.5	2.7%	3.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Chris Fairchild (2013)	DT	6'2, 312	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8004	12	14.5	2.3%	2.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Zach Singer	NT					9	12.0	1.8%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Clay Miller	DE	6'4, 270	Sr.	NR	NR	10	10.0	1.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Davonte James	DE	6'3, 250	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8667

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Matt Dellinger	LB	6'1, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7400	11	63.0	9.6%	3.0	0.5	1	0	0	0
Elcee Refuge	LB	5'9, 230	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333	10	45.0	6.8%	6.0	0.0	0	1	1	0
Devante' Strickland (2013)	OLB	6'1, 231	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	12	36.5	5.7%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Darius Redmond	LB	6'0, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8200	9	28.0	4.2%	2.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Marques Moore	LEO	6'2, 200	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	10	20.5	3.1%	3.0	1.0	0	3	1	0
Dustyn Moore	LB					9	15.0	2.3%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Matthew Sommers	LEO	6'2, 242	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	10	12.5	1.9%	0.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
James Alexander	LB	5'11, 242	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7383	6	4.0	0.6%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jim Jones	LB	6'1, 214	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8189

7. The MAC's best linebacking corps?

That Kent State ranked 60th in Rushing S&P+ despite almost no push up front -- 90th in standard downs line yards per carry, 118th in opportunity rate, 119th in power success rate, 116th in stuff rate -- is remarkable. And while tackle Nate Terhune had his moments, this success speaks volumes about Kent State's linebacking corps, one that, again, was without Strickland. And while we're at it, only Dellinger played in all 11 games; KSU's linebacking corps represented well despite constant turnover.

West Virginia transfer Davonte James joins the rotation up front, which can't hurt, but between Dellinger, Elcee Refuge, exciting sophomore Marques Moore, Strickland, and maybe three-star freshman Jim Jones, it isn't hard to see this unit as one of the MAC's best in 2015. With a little more push from a seasoned line, this unit could do some pretty significant damage.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Nate Holley	FS	5'11, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333	11	106.0	16.1%	4	0	0	2	2	0
Jordan Italiano	SS	5'10, 207	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7800	11	72.0	10.9%	3.5	0	3	2	3	0
Demetrius Monday	CB	5'10, 197	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8246	11	31.0	4.7%	1.5	0	1	7	0	0
Nick Cuthbert	SS	6'0, 208	Jr.	NR	NR	11	29.5	4.5%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Najee Murray	CB	5'9, 180	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8915	7	18.5	2.8%	0.5	0	0	3	0	0
Malcolm Pannell	CB					9	14.5	2.2%	1	0	2	2	0	0
Jerrell Foster	STAR					10	6.5	1.0%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Kerrick Rhone	CB					9	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Eric Church	CB					11	5.5	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Calvin Tiggle	S					2	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Marcus Elliott	DB	6'1, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7433	6	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kevin Bourne	S	5'10, 191	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333
Erik Simpson	S	5'11, 175	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8090
Juantez McRae	S	5'11, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8570
Carlos Pickett	S	5'11, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8029
D'Andre Smart	CB	5'11, 157	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7856

8. Wanted: a second string

Of course, the linebackers got some help from a ferocious pair of safeties. Only four Golden Flashes had three or more non-sack tackles for loss, and Nate Holley (four) and Jordan Italiano (3.5) were two of them. They were able to hang out near the line of scrimmage, but the secondary was still strong enough to prevent serious damage from big plays. KSU prevented big plays on standard downs and played efficient defense on passing downs. That's a solid combination, and the DBs had a lot to do with it.

It's pretty exciting that last year's top five DBs all return, including Ohio State transfer Najee Murray. If these five stay mostly healthy, KSU could have one of the better MAC secondaries. There could be some questions, if there are injuries. None of the next five players on the tacklers list was listed on the roster at the end of the year, so the second string will feature quite a few inexperienced players. Now, KSU has recruited well in the secondary of late -- three-star redshirt freshman Erik Simpson waits his turn, and Juantez McRae might have been the jewel of the 2015 signing class -- but you never want to rely too much on freshmen, especially considering the size involved.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Anthony Melchiori	5'11, 186	Sr.	67	44.3	3	19	26	67.2%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Anthony Melchiori	5'11, 186	Sr.	44	61.6	13	1	29.5%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Anthony Melchiori	5'11, 186	Sr.	16-18	8-13	61.5%	2-5	40.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Ernest Calhoun	KR	5'6, 151	Jr.	34	20.8	0
Josh Boyle	KR	5'9, 173	Sr.	3	24.3	0
James Brooks	PR	5'9, 200	Jr.	12	6.0	0
Ernest Calhoun	PR	5'6, 151	Jr.	2	13.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	99
Field Goal Efficiency	124
Punt Return Efficiency	90
Kick Return Efficiency	78
Punt Efficiency	24
Kickoff Efficiency	68
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	93

9. Your best offensive player

Kent State's Five Factors offensive ratings above are pretty funny: 128th in Redzone S&P+, 122nd in Success Rate+, 110th in IsoPPP+ ... and 20th in Field Position+. Despite awful efficiency numbers, the Golden Flashes were continuously able to create good field position for their defense because of the booming leg of Anthony Melchiori, who averaged more than 44 yards per punt with strong hang time. He left a bit to be desired from a place-kicking perspective (to put it nicely), but his return will help immensely, especially if a more efficient offense is able to pick up more first downs here and there.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rk
5-Sep	at Illinois	78
12-Sep	Delaware State	NR
19-Sep	at Minnesota	37
26-Sep	Marshall	17
3-Oct	Miami (Ohio)	103
10-Oct	at Toledo	59
17-Oct	at Massachusetts	120
24-Oct	Bowling Green	98
5-Nov	Bufalo	114
10-Nov	at Ohio	106
18-Nov	Central Michigan	85
27-Nov	at Akron	105

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-16.7% (93)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	121 / 120
2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-4 / -3.0
2014 TO Luck/Game	-0.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	18 (8, 10)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	3.8 (-1.8)

10. Maybe not too far away

I'm not going to pretend Kent State is a darkhorse MAC contender by any means, but the Golden Flashes were dealt an impossible hand and figured out how to improve. Now they return a boatload of contributors that were either too banged up or too young to make a difference in 2014.

If the receiving corps produces a decent No. 1 target, if experience leads to improvement in the trenches, and the Flashes are bitten a more standard amount by the injury bug, then this could at least be a mid-tier MAC team.

Of course, we'll see what that means, considering the brutal schedule. KSU visits Minnesota and Illinois and hosts Marshall in non-conference play and gets only six opponents that ranked 100th or worse in F/+ last year. (That's not very many by MAC standards.) If they play well at home and steal a road game against a UMass or Ohio, then they could threaten to make a run at six wins.

The bar won't be set much higher than that, but that would be a strong step forward.