The big 2015 Old Dominion football guide: More shootouts inbound

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Pass one test, get ready for another

Norfolk, Va., isn't the worst place to build a football program. It's not the state of Georgia, but the market isn't saturated, and you're close to an awfully big talent pool. You're next to Virginia Beach, you're right down the road from Richmond, Raleigh, Charlotte, DC, South Carolina, et cetera. Hire a good coach, recruit efficiently, and voila, you can win some football games.

Since its rebirth in 2009, Old Dominion has won a lot of football games -- 52, in fact. After more than six dormant decades, ODU kicked off in 2009 and immediately went 9-2 against a schedule of mostly FCS teams. In 2010, the Monarchs went 8-3 with two tight losses to ranked teams and wins over almost everybody else. In 2011, ODU went to the FCS playoffs and barely lost at Georgia Southern. In 2012, it happened again.

By 2013, the transition had begun. ODU prepared for the move to FBS with a schedule that featured seven FCS opponents (against whom the Monarchs went 7-0) and five FBS opponents (1-4). They weren't ready for Maryland and UNC (combined score: 127-30), but they held their own against ECU and Pitt and beat Idaho. And in 2014 came their full-time debut. ODU started 3-1 and finished 3-0, and despite a midseason funk and a sketchy defense, they finished 6-6. Six years into its second life, ODU still has yet to finish under .500.

Transition accomplished, ODU has a different test to face in 2015: turnover. Gone is quarterback Taylor Heinicke, a four-year starter, 2012 Walter Payton Award winner, and 15,000-yard passer. Gone is all-conference center and three-year starter Josh Mann. And gone are four starters in the defensive front seven and five of last year's top seven defensive backs. The offense still has plenty of exciting options, and thanks to injuries, lots of defenders got experience last year, but the longtime face of the program is gone, and head coach Bobby Wilder might have to craft a slightly new identity to keep the "no sub-.500 seasons" streak alive.

You don't make much money betting against Wilder and ODU, but this will be a different kind of test. Fortunately, depth and a light schedule will give the Monarchs a pretty good chance of passing.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-6 | Adj. Record: 2-10 | Final F/+ Rk: 108
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	Hampton	N/A	41-28	W	35%	-8.8	96%
6-Sep	at NC State	55	34-46	L	14%	-25.5	2%
13-Sep	Eastern Michigan	128	17-3	W	40%	-5.9	96%
20-Sep	at Rice	86	45-42	W	66%	9.8	88%
26-Sep	Middle Tennessee	87	28-41	L	14%	-25.0	7%
4-Oct	Marshall	17	14-56	L	5%	-38.7	0%
11-Oct	at UTEP	90	35-42	L	29%	-12.9	32%
25-Oct	at Western Kentucky	50	51-66	L	33%	-10.2	30%
1-Nov	at Vanderbilt	115	28-42	L	8%	-32.3	16%
8-Nov	Florida International	96	38-35	W	32%	-10.7	54%
22-Nov	Louisiana Tech	35	30-27	W	63%	7.9	66%
29-Nov	at Florida Atlantic	100	31-28	W	26%	-14.7	48%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	29.9	57	40.4	125
Points Per Game	32.7	41	38.0	115

2. A wretched midseason funk

Basically, for the first four and last three games of the year, ODU was a top-75 team. That's an awfully impressive thing to say about an FBS newcomer (for teams not named Georgia Southern, anyway), and the results backed it up. In this seven-game sample, the Monarchs won at Rice and beat eventual division champion Louisiana Tech at home, lost a competitive game to a decent N.C. State team, and at the very least avoided disaster against FIU and FAU.

And then there were the five games in the middle.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 4 games): 39% (record: 3-1)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 5 games): 18% (record: 0-5)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 3 games): 40% (record: 3-0)

Hmm. Let's see if we can pinpoint what might have gone wrong.

• ODU Defense (first 4 games): 29.8 points per game, 5.51 yards per play
• ODU Defense (next 5 games): 49.4 points per game, 6.83 yards per play
• ODU Defense (last 3 games): 30.0 points per game, 5.60 yards per play

I think we've pinpointed what went wrong.

ODU's defense was never particularly good, but it completely fell apart in the middle. Granted, the Monarchs' five-game, midseason losing streak featured a couple of prolific offenses; Marshall and Western Kentucky combined for 122 points and 1,192 yards against ODU. But MTSU, UTEP and (perhaps most damning) Vanderbilt all scored at least 40 points and gained at least 465 yards as well. ODU was able to suck two of the slowest-paced teams in the country (UTEP and Vandy) into playing at a higher tempo, but the Monarchs couldn't do anything to slow these iffy offenses down.

A look at the defensive stats below fills us in on what might have happened. Starting nose tackle Chris Smith (hamstring) missed the MTSU, Marshall, and UTEP games, for starters. And the linebacking corps and secondary were both constantly unsettled -- of the 16 linebackers and defensive backs to average at least one tackle per game, only five played in all 12 games. ODU had an absolutely horrific pass defense all year, but without Smith, the Monarchs couldn't stop the run either: MTSU, Marshall, UTEP, WKU, and Vandy combined to rush for 284 yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry.

During this five-game funk, ODU averaged at least 6.4 yards per play and scored at least 28 points four times. And they still lost by an average of 18 points per game. But when the defense rallied back toward mediocre over the last three games, ODU began to win again.

So in this regard, perhaps a defensive rebuild isn't that big a deal in 2015. ODU was hamstrung by its defense already. But it does mean that the offense can't lose a beat without its best quarterback ever.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.93	27	IsoPPP+	107.8	49
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.7%	28	Succ. Rt. +	106.8	43
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	32.1	108	Def. FP+	97.0	101
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	5.0	19	Redzone S&P+	113.8	30
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.7		ACTUAL	20	+2.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	37	50	43	49
RUSHING	86	54	67	44
PASSING	16	49	24	64
Standard Downs		56	52	57
Passing Downs		30	33	36

Q1 Rk	83	1st Down Rk	59
Q2 Rk	33	2nd Down Rk	71
Q3 Rk	24	3rd Down Rk	34
Q4 Rk	77

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2015 Year

Rivals

247 Comp.

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Taylor Heinicke

289

455

3476

30

14

63.5%

28

5.8%

6.7

Shuler Bentley

6'1, 209

RSFr.

2 stars (5.4)

0.8161

Joey Verhaegh

6'3, 215

So.

NR

0.7500

3. Life after Heinicke

Bobby Wilder was producing good offenses before Taylor Heinicke came along. He served as Maine's offensive coordinator for seven seasons (2000-06) under Jack Cosgrove and twice oversaw offenses that helped win Atlantic 10 titles. And in 2009-10, ODU's two pre-Heinicke seasons, the Monarchs did average 34.6 points per game. The loss of a single player isn't going to single-handedly bring down the ODU offense, even if it was an award-winner, a potential pro, and the sixth-most prolific passer in Division 1 history.

It appears that the race to succeed Heinicke will focus primarily on two players: redshirt freshman Shuler Bentley and JUCO transfer Joey Verhaegh. Bentley was a two-time South Carolina Gatorade player of the year and a three-star recruit according to the 247Sports Composite. He chose ODU over offers from AAC schools like Cincinnati, ECU, and Tulane. He has been groomed as the heir apparent, but Wilder signed Verhaegh, a late-bloomer and 2,500 yard passer at Fullerton College last year. One would assume it's Bentley's job to lose, but Verhaegh will make him earn it.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Ray Lawry	RB	5'10, 205	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8402	134	947	16	7.1	8.9	40.3%	1	1
Gerard Johnson	RB					100	493	1	4.9	4.6	40.0%	0	0
Taylor Heinicke	QB					52	371	2	7.1	5.3	57.7%	3	0
Cam Boyd	RB					31	174	3	5.6	3.8	51.6%	0	0
Vincent Lowe	RB	5'9, 175	So.	NR	0.8133	8	30	0	3.8	8.1	25.0%	1	0
Antonio Vaughan	WR					6	31	0	5.2	3.8	33.3%	2	1
Brandon Simmons	RB	5'9, 191	So.	NR	NR
Latrell Sandifer	RB	5'7, 153	RSFr.	NR	NR
Jeremy Cox	RB	5'11, 211	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7917
Kaesean Strong	RB	5'10, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8044
Kyle Goddard	WR	5'10, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7971

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Zach Pascal	WR	6'2, 217	Jr.	NR	NR	104	59	743	56.7%	24.2%	60.6%	7.1	12	7.3	112.8
Antonio Vaughan	WR					94	63	1019	67.0%	21.9%	61.7%	10.8	263	10.9	154.9
David Washington	WR	6'3, 209	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	NR	62	47	599	75.8%	14.5%	72.6%	9.7	47	8.4	91.0
Blair Roberts (2013)	WR	6'2, 203	Sr.	NR	NR	N/A	46	560	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Melvin Vaughn	TE	6'2, 248	Jr.	NR	0.7000	47	30	315	63.8%	11.0%	59.6%	6.7	-48	6.7	47.9
Gerard Johnson	RB					28	24	149	85.7%	6.5%	67.9%	5.3	-127	5.5	22.6
Vincent Lowe	RB	5'9, 175	So.	NR	0.8133	22	14	69	63.6%	5.1%	68.2%	3.1	-101	3.1	10.5
Ray Lawry	RB	5'10, 205	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8402	20	17	155	85.0%	4.7%	60.0%	7.8	-41	7.9	23.6
Nick England	WR	6'0, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.6722	19	12	177	63.2%	4.4%	57.9%	9.3	31	9.3	26.9
Marques Little	WR	5'9, 180	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8085	11	11	138	100.0%	2.6%	72.7%	12.5	14	12.3	21.0
Jonathan Duhart	WR	6'3, 211	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7733	9	7	127	77.8%	2.1%	66.7%	14.1	45	13.8	19.3
Kirk Spellman	WR	5'10, 172	Sr.	NR	NR
T.J. Boothe	WR	6'2, 223	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8260
Travis Fulgham	WR	6'3, 205	RSFr.	NR	NR
Adam Swann	TE	6'5, 241	RSFr.	NR	0.8100
Will Howard	WR	6'3, 197	RSFr.	NR	0.8100
Quintin Reynolds	WR	6'0, 185	RSFr.	NR	0.7983
Eri'Reon Hayes	WR	6'2, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7856

4. Toys in the toybox

ODU had a pretty clear identity in 2014: wing the ball around, then give it to freshman Ray Lawry. The Monarchs had a spread offense that passed to set up the run, and it worked quite well. They ranked 24th in Passing Success Rate+ and 44th in Rushing IsoPPP+ -- they'd extend you from sideline to sideline, then Lawry would carve you up.

With such a prolific, experienced quarterback, this approach made perfect sense. But it will be interesting to see if the run-pass rates change with not only a new quarterback, but also the continued presence of the burley, explosive Lawry in the backfield.

Highlight yards are intended to measure the yards you gain once the line is done doing its job. It is a measure of raw explosiveness. And of the 118 FBS running backs with at least 130 carries in 2014, only five had a higher Highlight Yards per Opportunity average than Lawry's 8.91: Georgia Southern's Matt Brida (10.91), Wyoming's Brian Hill (10.76), Indiana's Tevin Coleman (9.79), Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon (9.29), and Marshall's Devon Johnson (8.92). That's pretty elite company.

In a more run-heavy offense, Lawry could have put up numbers to compete with almost any other freshman in 2014, the year of the freshman running back. And in 2015, he might live life in a more run-heavy offense. He'll need some new backups following the departure of both Gerard Johnson and Cam Boyd, but he'll get plenty of touches.

Of course, plenty of receivers have earned some touches, too. Thousand-yard receiver Antonio Vaughan is gone, but last year's most frequent target, Zach Pascal, is back, as is converted quarterback (and possession receiver extraordinaire) David Washington. One of 2013's leading receivers, Blair Roberts, is expected to be healthy after missing 2014 with a back injury. Plus, sophomores Marques Little and Jonathan Duhart thrived when given the chance, and a pair of three-star redshirt freshmen (Will Howard and tight end Adam Swann) could be ready to do some damage.

Basically, the new quarterback will only need to be competent for the offense to click. He'll have a pretty good line in front of him, too.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	104.3	3.09	4.15	42.7%	70.4%	16.9%	116.6	3.2%	9.6%
Rank	55	44	5	27	41	31	44	26	100

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Josh Mann	C					35	2014 1st All-CUSA
Connor Mewbourne	LT	6'4, 287	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	20
Tyler Fisher	LG	6'3, 323	Jr.	NR	0.7000	17
Darius Garcia	RT	6'3, 311	So.	NR	0.7000	9
Tyler Compton	LG	6'4, 297	Jr.	NR	NR	8
Troy Butler	RT	6'3, 320	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333	6
Tyler Burns	RG	6'6, 370	Sr.	NR	NR	5
Kyle Bottoms	LT					2
Ely Anderson	RT	6'6, 290	Sr.	NR	0.7000	1
Andrew Maddox	OT	6'5, 286	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7910	0
Raul Martinez	OL	6'5, 285	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8153	0
Eli Kessner	C	6'2, 300	So.	NR	NR	0
Eric Hampson	RG	6'5, 284	So.	NR	0.7700	0
Davis Farmer	OT	6'5, 331	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	0
Cullen Casey	OT	6'4, 288	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8001	0

5. A clean backfield

Heinicke had play-maker tendencies, and it occasionally backfired -- he threw 14 interceptions in 2014, and he took sacks 10 percent of the time on passing downs. He trusted his ability to hang in and make plays, and it didn't always work out. But despite this, and despite battling injuries in 2014, ODU still ranked 44th in Adj. Sack Rate and 55th in Adj. Line Yards and kept a mostly clean backfield for Lawry.

While the new quarterback will be taking snaps from a new center, he will be protected by a line that is otherwise experienced and proven. Seven players return with starting experience (66 career starts), including Connor Mewbourne and Tyler Fisher, who have started for most of the last two years on the left side.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.83	53	IsoPPP+	79.5	116
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	50.1%	125	Succ. Rt. +	79.3	127
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	27.6	115	Off. FP+	109.9	5
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.9	111	Redzone S&P+	83.4	123
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.2		ACTUAL	19.0	-1.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	107	120	127	111
RUSHING	115	111	122	98
PASSING	67	124	128	120
Standard Downs		105	120	83
Passing Downs		128	128	127

Q1 Rk	116	1st Down Rk	123
Q2 Rk	127	2nd Down Rk	78
Q3 Rk	115	3rd Down Rk	123
Q4 Rk	121

6. Future upside

ODU's defense in 2014 was bad, then awful, then bad. There's really no way to sugar-coat it. The Monarchs ranked 127th in Success Rate+; only Army's defense was less efficient. And while things got worse without nose tackle Chris Smith, they weren't particularly good with him. And now Smith's gone.

Recruiting seems to have gone pretty well over the last couple of seasons, and ODU boasts quite a few freshmen and redshirt freshmen with high upside, especially at defensive end and defensive back. So maybe there's hope for 2016 and beyond. But while it won't be hard for this defense to improve on last year's numbers, improvement will probably be minimal.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	88.2	3.23	3.86	44.5%	76.3%	15.3%	76.5	6.9%	3.0%
Rank	110	108	117	120	114	114	101	27	123

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Chris Smith	NT					9	30.0	4.1%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Andrew Everett	STUD					12	28.0	3.8%	1.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Poncho Barnwell	DE	6'4, 270	Sr.	NR	N/A	12	25.5	3.5%	6.5	3.5	0	0	1	0
Malik Gumbs	DT					12	21.5	3.0%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Bunmi Rotimi	DT	6'4, 283	So.	NR	N/A	12	21.0	2.9%	2.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Rashaad Coward	NT	6'5, 297	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8059	11	19.5	2.7%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Gary Scruggs	DE					11	17.5	2.4%	3.5	1.0	0	0	1	0
Terrell Reid	STUD	6'2, 277	Jr.	NR	NR	12	11.0	1.5%	3.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Jude Brenya	DE	6'3, 262	Jr.	NR	0.7000	9	10.0	1.4%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Scott Wiggins	STUD	6'2, 237	Jr.	NR	NR	5	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Galen Evans	NT	6'3, 299	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	7	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Daniel Appouh	DE	6'4, 247	RSFr.	NR	0.8800
Oshane Ximines	DE	6'3, 239	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8035
Brandon Tyson	NT	6'1, 345	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7994
Torrez Wentz	DT	6'2, 281	RSFr.	NR	0.7500
Miles Fox	DT	6'1, 270	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8295
Casey Bernard	DE	6'2, 222	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8300
Mufu Taiwo	DT	6'5, 250	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7806

7. Size is less of a problem (in a different sort of way)

The pass rush was a relative strength for ODU in 2014. Granted, it was only relative -- there's nothing particularly strong about ranking 101st in Adj. Sack Rate -- but it's something. And with last year's "leaders" in this regard (end Poncho Barnwell and OLB TJ Ricks, who combined for 5.5 sacks and, strangely, six forced fumbles) returning, the pass rush certainly won't get worse, especially if redshirt freshman Daniel Appouh can quickly begin living up to his lofty recruiting hype or Oshane Ximines can do to opposing offensive tackles what he's apparently doing to ODU's in spring practice.

Inexperience will be an issue at tackle, but size won't be. And it seems Wilder and his staff thought the tackles were carrying too much of it last year. ODU spent its winter packing weight on just about everybody...but the tackles. Rashaad Coward is down from 319 to 297, Galen Evans is down from 319 to 299, and at the very least, monstrous redshirt freshman Brandon Tyson is down from 350 to 345. ODU had all sorts of size last year, but it didn't work out too well. This year, the focus on the interior is apparently added quickness.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
D.J. Simon	MLB					12	68.5	9.4%	12.0	2.0	0	1	2	0
TJ Ricks	OLB	6'0, 226	Jr.	NR	NR	12	61.5	8.4%	7.0	2.5	0	1	5	0
Martez Simpson	OLB	6'1, 222	Sr.	NR	NR	11	51.0	7.0%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Richie Staton	MLB					9	25.5	3.5%	2.0	1.0	0	2	2	0
Isaiah Worthy	OLB	6'1, 235	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8033	9	14.5	2.0%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Andre Simmons	OLB					10	13.5	1.9%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Malique Johnson	OLB	6'2, 216	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	11	11.0	1.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Reece Schmidt	MLB	6'3, 246	Sr.	NR	NR	9	4.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Wilson	OLB	6'1, 221	Jr.	NR	NR	11	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Mike Lennox	OLB					11	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kohl Adams-Hurd	LB	6'2, 221	Sr.	NR	0.7000
Richard Thomas	LB	6'0, 227	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7500
Shadow Williams	LB	6'0, 218	Jr.	NR	0.7800
Derek Wilder	LB	6'1, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8044

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Fellonte Misher	SS	6'2, 214	Sr.	NR	NR	12	63.5	8.7%	2	0	2	1	1	1
Eriq Lewis	CB					12	38.5	5.3%	4	0	0	8	1	0
Phil Paulhill	FS					11	37.0	5.1%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Justice Davila	FS	6'0, 191	So.	NR	0.7822	6	27.0	3.7%	0	0	0	4	0	0
Jevon Neal	CB					11	23.5	3.2%	1	0	0	0	1	0
Reggie Owens	CB					12	21.5	3.0%	2	1	1	3	2	0
Sandy Chapman	CB					9	17.0	2.3%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Christian Byrum	SS	6'1, 186	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8091	9	16.5	2.3%	0	0	2	0	0	0
Devon Brown (UAB)	CB	5'11, 182	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7600	7	9.0	1.4%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Aaron Young	CB	5'11, 188	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956	11	9.0	1.2%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Aquante Thornton	CB	5'9, 170	Sr.	NR	NR
Rob Thompson	CB	6'1, 182	So.	2 stars (5.2)	NR
Justin Noye	S	6'1, 196	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8367
Lawrence Holley	CB	6'2, 205	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7544
Jamez Brickhouse	CB	5'10, 165	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8321

8. Wanted: cornerbacks

The back seven of the defense was shuffled constantly in 2014, resulting in poor play and plenty of experience for those that managed to stay on the field. The loss of D.J. Simon, by far ODU's best run defender with 10 non-sack tackles for loss, hurts. But four linebackers with at least 14.5 tackles last year do return, and Ricks does appear to be a strong play-maker at OLB. If either of two JUCO transfers -- Richard Thomas or Shadow Williams -- or incoming freshman/coach's son Derek Wilder can contribute early, the linebacking corps should at least hold steady. That is a grave necessity, as an already shaky secondary is rebuilding.

The good news: athleticism probably won't be an issue. Sophomores Justice Davila and Christian Byrum each showed strong play-making ability in limited opportunities last year, and Byrum, redshirt freshman Justin Noye, and incoming freshman Jamez Brickhouse were all 247Sports three-stars. Throw in UAB transfer Devon Brown, and it appears ODU has some speedy options. The Monarchs also have no cornerback who made more than 9.0 tackles last year. Safety is probably covered with Davila and Fellonte Misher, but there is an enormous void at CB.

(Side note: going by names, Jamez Brickhouse should be the linebacker, and Shadow Williams should be the cornerback. Alas.)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Jarrett Cervi	6'1, 219	So.	23	40.5	1	9	2	47.8%
Taylor Heinicke			14	47.2	0	0	6	42.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Ricky Segers	5'11, 206	Jr.	34	58.3	10	3	29.4%
Satchel Ziffer	6'4, 206	Sr.	24	59.1	1	0	4.2%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Ricky Segers	5'11, 206	Jr.	26-27	2-3	66.7%	0-0	N/A
Satchel Ziffer	6'4, 206	Sr.	12-12	2-3	66.7%	1-2	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Cam Boyd	KR			27	17.7	0
Vincent Lowe	KR	5'9, 175	So.	10	16.3	0
Antonio Vaughan	PR			12	9.3	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	122
Field Goal Efficiency	117
Punt Return Efficiency	16
Kick Return Efficiency	112
Punt Efficiency	123
Kickoff Efficiency	123
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	70

9. Depth bleeds into special teams

When your defense does worse in the second and fourth quarters, as ODU's did, that's a sign of potential depth/quality issues. And when your special teams coverage units also stink, we'll call that confirmation. If you don't have many trustworthy defensive backs and linebackers, you probably won't be able to prevent decent returns, and ODU was one of only two teams to allow two 70-yard punt returns. Throw in a 23-yard average kick return for opponents, and ... well, your team might end up ranking 122nd in overall special teams. And now the only redeeming aspect of last year's special teams unit (punt returner Antonio Vaughan) is gone.

The class of redshirt freshmen hitting the field this fall might be athletic enough to help in this regard. ODU can only hope that's the case.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
5-Sep	at Eastern Michigan	128
12-Sep	Norfolk State	NR
19-Sep	N.C. State	55
26-Sep	Appalachian State	104
3-Oct	at Marshall	17
17-Oct	Charlotte	NR
24-Oct	at Florida International	96
31-Oct	Western Kentucky	50
7-Nov	at UTSA	109
14-Nov	UTEP	90
21-Nov	at Southern Miss	110
28-Nov	Florida Atlantic	100

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-14.3% (87)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	91 / 122
2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-1 / 2.5
2014 TO Luck/Game	-1.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (8, 5)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	5.3 (0.7)

10. Lots of potential wins

There is plenty of reason to doubt ODU in 2015. The Monarchs are replacing a record-setting quarterback with, potentially, a redshirt freshman, and while the rest of the offense seems loaded, any regression could hurt considering the defense is probably still a year away from turning athleticism into competence. Six seasons into this football experiment, ODU still hasn't had a losing record, but that could be a distinct possibility this year.

Then again, the schedule could help to prevent that from happening. Let's say that ODU's offense regresses by the same amount that the defense improves, and ODU again ranks between 100th and 110th in F/+. Better injuries luck could bump that a bit higher, but even at that level, the Monarchs will have plenty of win opportunities in 2015. Four road opponents and five home opponents ranked 90th or worse last year, which means that ODU will likely be in quite a few close games. If the Monarchs win enough of them, another 6-6 campaign is certainly within reach.