The big 2015 FAU football guide: Recruiting strong, now what about results?

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. The unsafe choice, one year in

Judging by the Owls' performance under [interim coach Brian] Wright [in 2013], it would have been understandable if FAU had just given him the full-time keys. His guidance of the program was better than his guidance of the offense, and with solid returning talent, he could have engineered a strong 2014. Granted, he only had a month of experience as FAU's head coach, but he proved quite a bit.

The Owls took a bigger risk, giving the job to 40-year-old Charlie Partridge. A Plantation, Fla., native, Partridge spent the last six years as a Bret Bielema assistant. He is known as an ace recruiter with all sorts of Florida ties, and he has backed up those claims by already locking down two high-profile commitments.

The odds are good that his recruiting ability will help build the Owls into one of the more purely athletic teams in Conference USA. What we don't know yet is whether he'll be able to coach.

In choosing a successor for Carl Pelini, FAU went after a high-ceiling, unknown-floor guy in Charlie Partridge. Brian Wright had engineered four straight wins and a 6-6 finish for the Owls in 2013, but bringing an ace recruiter to a school in Florida sounded like too much of an opportunity to pass up.

One year in, the jury's still out. The offense took a step forward, but the defense regressed, and the product did not match what the Owls were doing in late 2013. FAU was solid at home, whipping Tulsa, knocking off Western Kentucky and narrowly falling to two .500 teams (UAB, ODU). But the Owls were a horror show on the road and finished 3-9 as a result.

Heading into Year 2, Partridge will field a team that could be even more efficient on offense and even shakier on defense. He did sign the best non-Marshall recruiting class in Conference USA, so he lived up to the hype. And that will buy him plenty of time.

2. Scarlett fever

Conceptually, FAU's class was of particular interest because of a theory that began floating around a year ago. A couple of days after Christmas 2013, running back Jordan Scarlett, one of the premier running backs in the class of 2015, committed to Partridge and FAU. The response from recruiting analysts was two-pronged and nearly unanimous: 1) There's no chance Scarlett remains committed to FAU over the 13 months before Signing Day, and 2) this is still fantastic for FAU because Partridge and his staff now have "momentum" in South Florida. Scarlett's commitment could end up helping to secure other FAU commitments even if he eventually decommits.

To me, this felt dissonant. If recruits are taking FAU more seriously because of Scarlett's commitment, should we assume they will continue to take FAU seriously once he decommits? What kind of momentum are we really looking at if the source of the momentum doesn't end up playing in Boca Raton?

Sure enough, Scarlett didn't sign wih the Owls. He decommitted in June, committed to Miami in July, then flipped to Florida. But before Scarlett flipped, FAU scored commitments from three-star prospects Rodrick Archer (safety from Plantation, Fla.), Daniel Parr (quarterback from Palm Beach Gardens), Jaye Miner (linebacker from Wesley Chapel), Azeez Al-Shaair (linebacker from Tampa), Tavaris Harrison (receiver from North Miami Beach), and Tarrick Thomas (lineman from Tallahassee). They remained committed after Scarlett flipped, and FAU then proceeded to add another eight three-star signees, (according to the 247Sports Composite.

At the least, Scarlett's predictable decommitment didn't hurt FAU's efforts. If nothing else, perhaps Scarlett gave others a reason to take a look at FAU, and when they did, they liked what they saw. Partridge signed 247's No. 79 class in the country, one that ranked second in Conference USA and would have placed in the upper half of AAC. Not bad for a school that averaged 3.7 wins per season since 2015's signees entered junior high.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 2-10 | Final F/+ Rk: 100
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	at Nebraska	30	7-55	L	6%	-35.4	0%
6-Sep	at Alabama	2	0-41	L	3%	-43.3	0%
13-Sep	Tulsa	117	50-21	W	87%	26.5	100%
20-Sep	at Wyoming	113	19-20	L	31%	-11.7	49%
27-Sep	UTSA	109	41-37	W	33%	-10.5	38%
2-Oct	at Florida International	96	10-38	L	13%	-25.8	4%
18-Oct	Western Kentucky	50	45-38	W	70%	12.4	78%
25-Oct	at Marshall	17	16-35	L	29%	-12.7	0%
1-Nov	UAB	79	28-31	L	49%	-0.7	43%
8-Nov	at North Texas	125	10-31	L	6%	-36.2	0%
22-Nov	at Middle Tennessee	87	34-35	L	42%	-4.5	37%
29-Nov	Old Dominion	108	28-31	L	46%	-2.6	52%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	25.8	86	34.9	107
Points Per Game	24.0	97	34.4	110

3. No place like Boca Raton

In this year's UMass and Ohio previews, I talked about home-road splits as it pertains to percentile performances. This is still a new concept for me, something I created for this year's series. But it's been interesting to track. Some teams, like UMass (which played some of its games in mostly empty Gillette Stadium) had almost no split between home and road performances. Others, like Ohio, had enormous splits.

FAU's split was even larger than Ohio's.

• Average Percentile Performance (away): 19% (record: 0-7)
• Average Percentile Performance (home): 57% (record: 3-2)

At home, FAU played like one of the better teams in Conference USA. Against Tulsa, UTSA, WKU, UAB, and ODU, the Owls averaged 6.6 yards per play and allowed 5.4. They averaged 38.4 points per game and were a bit unlucky to allow 31.6.

On the road, FAU averaged 4.6 yards per play and allowed 6.9. Part of that disparity comes from the schedule, which featured by far the season's three best opponents (Nebraska, Alabama, Marshall) on the road. But the schedule-adjusted percentiles show us FAU was vastly inferior away from Boca Raton.

Maybe this is a sign of youth and a new coaching staff. I plan on diving further into these percentiles at some point, and maybe we'll see correlations among the teams with huge splits. Regardless, FAU was both young and awful outside of its own area code.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.85	66	IsoPPP+	93.1	85
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.0%	59	Succ. Rt. +	98.7	73
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.5	79	Def. FP+	101.0	53
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	97	Redzone S&P+	92.6	88
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.6		ACTUAL	18	-0.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	103	83	73	85
RUSHING	62	81	80	77
PASSING	92	77	59	84
Standard Downs		72	71	71
Passing Downs		101	79	103

Q1 Rk	94	1st Down Rk	97
Q2 Rk	109	2nd Down Rk	76
Q3 Rk	99	3rd Down Rk	100
Q4 Rk	40

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Jaquez Johnson	6'1, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	182	315	2215	17	5	57.8%	15	4.5%	6.5
Greg Hankerson	6'0, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826	23	48	163	1	0	47.9%	6	11.1%	2.1
Jason Driskel	6'2, 210	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8129
Daniel Parr	6'3, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8364

4. Jaquez vs. consistency

In 2013, Jaquez Johnson seized control of the quarterback job, rushed for 870 non-sack yards and completing 57 percent at an explosive 14.8 yards per completion. FAU's offense was increasingly vertical, and in the Owls' season-ending four-game win streak, they averaged 38 points despite a slow tempo.

Wright remained at FAU as offensive coordinator when Partridge was hired, but the big plays dried up. Explosive stars Jay Warren and William Dukes were held in check, leaving Johnson to move the ball with efficiency. At times he did this.

He got hurt against Nebraska and missed the Alabama game, but in his first three home games he completed 62 of 88 passes (70 percent) for 938 yards, nine touchdowns, and no picks. Against WKU, he threw for 325 yards and rushed for 95. Like the rest of the team, he was mostly awful away from home, but despite an overall lack of big plays, he still increased his per-attempt passing average (from 6.4 to 6.5) while cutting down his sack and interception rates and still rushing efficiently.

Johnson wasn't efficient enough for FAU to put up big numbers when the big plays weren't flowing in. His completion rate was at 64 percent or higher in four of 11 games, but it was 51 percent or lower in five. His senior season will be graded by how well he can maintain form.

Warren returns to the backfield, and there are recent star signees who could do damage at the skill positions. But his receiving corps will be awfully green, and that might make it difficult to improve.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Jay Warren	RB	6'0, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8356	121	571	2	4.7	4.8	35.5%	4	2
Jaquez Johnson	QB	6'1, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	105	599	7	5.7	4.8	44.8%	4	3
Tony Moore	RB					75	299	3	4.0	2.8	33.3%	1	1
Greg Howell	RB	6'1, 205	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8233	50	253	1	5.1	3.3	44.0%	2	1
Lucky Whitehead	WR					21	210	1	10.0	16.5	42.9%	5	4
Jeremy Gaskins	RB	5'10, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7564	19	55	0	2.9	2.5	31.6%	0	0
Martese Jackson	RB					14	29	0	2.1	1.7	21.4%	0	0
Greg Hankerson	QB	6'0, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826	7	41	0	5.9	4.9	42.9%	0	0
Henry Bussey	RB	5'9, 180	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7556	7	29	0	4.1	1.1	71.4%	1	0
Trey Rodriguez	RB	5'10, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8566

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Lucky Whitehead	WR-W					106	76	709	71.7%	29.8%	58.5%	6.7	-192	6.7	92.1
Jenson Stoshak	WR-X	6'1, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	65	38	511	58.5%	18.3%	76.9%	7.9	43	8.5	66.4
Alex Deleon	TE					46	23	295	50.0%	12.9%	65.2%	6.4	2	6.9	38.3
William Dukes	WR-Z					38	15	259	39.5%	10.7%	68.4%	6.8	56	6.6	33.7
Kalib Woods	WR-Z	6'3, 182	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8300	31	16	223	51.6%	8.7%	67.7%	7.2	21	6.6	28.9
Derek Moise	WR	6'2, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7600	21	10	74	47.6%	5.9%	52.4%	3.5	-55	3.8	9.6
Nate Terry	TE	6'6, 210	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	9	3	55	33.3%	2.5%	33.3%	6.1	12	8.1	7.1
Jay Warren	RB	6'0, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8356	8	4	26	50.0%	2.2%	25.0%	3.3	-25	2.5	3.4
Henry Bussey	RB	5'9, 180	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7556	6	4	88	66.7%	1.7%	16.7%	14.7	40	7.0	11.4
Tony Moore	RB					5	3	43	60.0%	1.4%	0.0%	8.6	6	N/A	5.6
Kamrin Solomon	WR	6'2, 196	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7882	3	2	28	66.7%	0.8%	66.7%	9.3	4	9.7	3.6
Michael Harrop	TE	6'3, 220	Sr.	NR	NR	2	1	12	50.0%	0.6%	50.0%	6.0	-1	6.9	1.6
Dustin Bowens	TE	6'5, 255	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7900
Bobby Mitchell	WR	6'2, 175	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8156
Chandler Dexter	TE	6'5, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7600
Ralph Leonard	WR	6'2, 182	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8256
Tavaris Harrison	WR	6'3, 166	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8169
Ladante Harris	WR	5'10, 160	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7932

5. Find some receivers (and hold onto the damn ball)

Because of sacks, most quarterbacks end up fumbling at least four or five times per season. So Johnson's four gaffes weren't too bad. But Jay Warren fumbled once every 30 carries, and leading receiver Lucky Whitehead managed to fumble five times in 97 catches/carries. And they didn't back those mistakes up with nearly enough big plays.

Whitehead will still be missed after a stellar season as a possession man; he caught 19 passes for 227 yards against WKU and Marshall, and he provided a needed efficiency option: while his catch rate was a lovely 72 percent, the next seven targets combined for a catch rate of 50.0 percent, and that includes two tight ends and a running back.

Johnson will be without Whitehead, leading tight end Alex Deleon, and all-or-nothing receiver William Dukes. He does get back last year's most successful per-target receiver, Jenson Stoshak. But after Stoshak comes a cavalcade of high-ceiling guys who have yet to prove much: sophomore Kalib Woods, redshirt freshman Bobby Mitchell, true freshmen Ralph Leonard and Tavaris Harrison.

Athleticism won't be an issue, and if those touching the ball can hold onto it, that would be great.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	103.3	3.11	3.55	38.9%	63.4%	17.1%	150.1	3.5%	5.3%
Rank	60	42	40	71	96	36	18	33	32

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Braden Lyons	RT					24
Dillon DeBoer	RG	6'6, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	18
Mikingson Marsaille	LG	6'6, 320	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7600	14
Reggie Bain	LT	6'4, 286	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7856	12
Joe Gold	C	6'3, 270	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8056	6
Eric Minemyer	RT					6
Jakobi Smith	RG	6'3, 300	So.	NR	0.7500	1
Arthur Crouse	LT	6'6, 250	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	0
Roman Fernandez	LG	6'0, 305	So.	NR	NR	0
Antonyo Woods	RG	6'3, 285	So.	NR	NR	0
Austin Bland	OL	6'3, 265	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8407	0
Siffo Pierre	OL	6'4, 325	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000
Kelly Parfitt (UCF)	OL	6'6, 313	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8044
Tarrick Thomas	OL	6'4, 270	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8503
Bryan Beck	OL	6'5, 275	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7583

6. An underrated front

The running game didn't produce nearly as many big plays in 2014 (12 rushes of 20-plus yards, 96th in FBS) as 2013 (20, 45th). But it was able to consistently gain four to five yards. The line played a role, and it helped in keeping Johnson's sack rates pretty low despite his dual-threat nature. (Dual-threats tend to have higher sack rates because they trust their legs to make too many plays.)

The return of five players with starting experience (51 career starts) is unquestionably a good thing. The line did its job despite three freshmen getting starting experience, and adding UCF transfer Kelly Parfitt to the rotation, along with (perhaps) star recruit Tarrick Thomas, should create one of the conference's best lines. And if you have a good line, an exciting quarterback, and an experienced starting running back, you can move the ball.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.88	86	IsoPPP+	92.3	91
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.9%	109	Succ. Rt. +	92.3	101
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.7	77	Off. FP+	98.0	88
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.9	114	Redzone S&P+	88.1	112
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.3		ACTUAL	15.0	-2.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	113	99	99	91
RUSHING	114	114	117	113
PASSING	87	54	52	50
Standard Downs		97	100	92
Passing Downs		91	83	88

Q1 Rk	119	1st Down Rk	94
Q2 Rk	89	2nd Down Rk	102
Q3 Rk	68	3rd Down Rk	105
Q4 Rk	82

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	87.8	3.34	3.96	42.4%	63.5%	12.5%	91.1	3.5%	8.6%
Rank	113	116	122	102	44	127	85	91	43

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Trevon Coley	DT	6'2, 300	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8125	12	37.0	5.3%	6.5	4.0	1	1	0	0
Trey Hendrickson	DE	6'4, 250	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956	12	24.5	3.5%	8.5	5.0	0	1	1	0
Robinson Eugene	DE	6'5, 266	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	12	18.5	2.7%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Haiden Nagel	DE	6'4, 230	So.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	11	16.0	2.3%	2.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Shalom Ogbonda	DE	6'4, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8157	11	14.0	2.0%	0.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Joe Henry	DE					7	12.0	1.7%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Denzel Whitfield	DT	6'5, 260	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	12	12.0	1.7%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ray Ellis	DT	6'1, 260	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7444	6	11.0	1.6%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Brandin Bryant	DT	6'3, 290	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	5	9.5	1.4%	2.5	2.0	0	0	1	0
Derek Butcher	DT					11	6.0	0.9%	2.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Josh Ballesteros	DE	6'2, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7751	5	5.0	0.7%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Josh Kendall	DT	6'2, 269	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593

7. Dreadful against the run

A shaky front seven can threaten even the best secondary; if there's a minimal pass rush, or if the front is getting gashed for seven yards per carry, the defensive backs won't get many opportunities to dominate. But with competence up front, the FAU secondary could be just as effective as it was in 2013 in this 4-2-5 structure. [...]

This is one of the best defensive backfields in mid-major football. It might be the best.

To say the least, I was bullish on FAU's secondary last year, and I had reason for it. Despite horrific rush defense and a mediocre pass rush, FAU managed a No. 54 ranking in Passing S&P+. That says wonderful things about the defensive backs.

But my caveat -- "with competence up front..." -- rang true. FAU ranked 114th in Rushing S&P+, 113th in Adj. Line Yards, and 127th in Stuff Rate (run stops at or behind the line). A good pass defense only matters if you can pretend to stop the run.

Because experience so frequently leads to good play, it is frequently the case that teams return players from weak units while replacing key pieces from good units. Such is life for FAU: eight of the top nine tacklers from last year's line return, while three of the top five in the secondary are gone.

Outside of Trevon Coley, FAU couldn't figure out its tackle situation, so if another year helps to set a rotation, that can only help. But the Owls had only one disruptive presence against the run (linebacker Andrae Kirk), and he's the player FAU has to replace. Improvement isn't guaranteed.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Andrae Kirk	LB					12	77.5	11.1%	10.5	2.0	2	8	1	0
Robert Relf	LB	6'3, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7991	11	44.5	6.4%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jerrad Ward	LB	6'0, 215	So.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	10	20.5	2.9%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
David Lozandier	LB					6	13.5	1.9%	1.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Nate Ozdemir	LB	6'2, 230	So.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	10	11.0	1.6%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Freedom Whitfield	LB	6'2, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7600	9	9.0	1.3%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kris Harris	LB	6'0, 225	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8322
Jaye Miner	LB	6'3, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8438
Azeez Al-Shaair	LB	6'1, 215	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8005

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Damian Parms	SS					12	67.0	9.6%	3	0	0	1	1	0
Cre'von LeBlanc	CB	5'11, 175	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8157	12	63.0	9.1%	1	0	2	6	0	0
Christian Milstead	FS					12	47.5	6.8%	1	0	0	7	0	0
Sharrod Neasman	NB	6'0, 198	Sr.	NR	NR	12	46.0	6.6%	3	0	2	3	1	0
D'Joun Smith	CB					11	43.5	6.3%	3	0	1	8	2	1
Raekwon Williams	CB	5'11, 174	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	12	24.0	3.4%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Anthony Hamilton	DB	5'10, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	11	17.5	2.5%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Grant Helm	SS					12	15.0	2.2%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Reggie Brown	CB	5'11, 170	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7906	2	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Marc Mauro	SS					3	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Ron Henderson	DB	5'10, 180	Sr.	NR	NR	2	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Lester Thomas	DB	5'10, 165	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759	7	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Marquese Dudley-Gordon	S	6'0, 188	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8423
Jake Stoshak	DB	6'0, 180	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8006
Jalen Young	S	5'11, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8423
Rodrick Archer	S	6'1, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8342
Gerald Robinson Jr.	CB	5'11, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8282
Richie Kittles Jr.	S	5'11, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8134
Ocie Rose	S	6'0, 167	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8220
Shelton Lewis	CB	6'0, 171	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8217
Kemar Downer	DB	5'11, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8173
Herbert Miller	S	6'1, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8061

8. Building a 1-1-9 defense

FAU signed a load of three-star recruits, which can only mean good things. But there was a bit too much repetition in terms of positioning. Of the 10 incoming freshman defenders given a three-star designation by 247Sports, eight are defensive backs. For a team that operates out of a nickel, that's not as disproportionate as it may sound ... but it's still disproportionate.

Losing both safeties and cornerback D'Joun Smith will almost certainly lead to regression. But between corner Cre'von LeBlanc, nickel back Sharrod Neasman, and sophomore Raekwon Williams, there's reason to hope the dropoff is minimal. And with two three-star redshirt freshmen joining the eight three-star trues, there's reason to assume FAU will soon have one of the league's best secondaries for years.

If defensive coordinator Roc Bellantoni can figure out how to fix the front of the defense, the back should be fine ... eventually.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Dalton Schomp	6'1, 215	Jr.	50	45.4	1	12	8	40.0%
Ryan Rickel	6'0, 170	Jr.	17	36.1	4	7	10	100.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Greg Joseph	6'1, 205	Jr.	57	60.5	22	0	38.6%
Kieran Leen			3	58.0	1	1	33.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Greg Joseph	6'1, 205	Jr.	34-35	10-13	76.9%	4-7	57.1%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Lucky Whitehead	KR			20	24.7	0
D'Joun Smith	KR			17	26.3	0
Lucky Whitehead	PR			19	16.4	1
Cre'von LeBlanc	PR	5'11, 175	Sr.	3	2.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	48
Field Goal Efficiency	84
Punt Return Efficiency	31
Kick Return Efficiency	84
Punt Efficiency	17
Kickoff Efficiency	96
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	109

9. Lucky was a hell of a return man

Despite the fumble issues, Lucky Whitehead's punt returns made him one of FAU's most dangerous weapons. Losing him might hurt the special teams unit more than it hurts the offense. His returns and the punting duo of Dalton Schomp and Ryan Rickel propped FAU's special teams ratings. The punters are back, but regression in the return game could hurt.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rk
5-Sep	at Tulsa	117
12-Sep	Miami	31
19-Sep	Buffalo	114
26-Sep	at Charlotte	NR
10-Oct	Rice	86
17-Oct	Marshall	17
24-Oct	at UTEP	90
31-Oct	Florida International	96
7-Nov	at Western Kentucky	50
14-Nov	Middle Tennessee	87
21-Nov	at Florida	32
28-Nov	at Old Dominion	108

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-30.1% (118)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	82 / 94
2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-3 / -1.2
2014 TO Luck/Game	-0.7
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (7, 7)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	4.0 (-1.0)

10. Start strong

FAU will be experienced at quarterback and in the trenches and young as hell at receiver and defensive back. Considering how important pass defense was to the Owls' 2014 success (such as it was), that might mean that improvement is minimal, though I would assume this is destined to be a team much better in November than it is in September.

The wins could come in September, though. FAU plays four teams that ranked 108th or worse in F/+ last season, but three pop up in the first four games of the year (and two are on the road). If the Owls start slow or play as poorly away from home as they did last year, they might be destined for another 3-9 campaign.

But if an experienced backbone means FAU is ready to do early damage, the Owls could threaten for six wins despite playing one of the league's tougher schedules. That makes the very first game of the season, a trip to Tulsa, important and telling.

As long as Partridge recruits like this, he'll be given plenty of leeway. But without eventual results, recruiting gets difficult. It's hard to produce one without the other.