The big 2015 FIU football guide: Ron Turner might actually be good at this

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1. Stigma

The Golden Panthers lost five games by a touchdown or less in 2012, and with the athletic director already tired of Cristobal's flirtation with other schools, they fired him. They whiffed on hiring Butch Davis and replaced Cristobal with former Illinois head coach Ron Turner. And while you never want to render permanent judgments on a hire after just one year, it's almost impossible for 2013 to have gone any worse.

FIU returns most of last year's first- and second-string, and Ron Turner used a few mulligans by bringing in new assistants. The schedule features eight home games and two FCS opponents. The table is set for improvement.

It's hard to get too optimistic, though, isn't it?

Our reaction to coaching hires is like our reaction to recruiting classes. We know we have to wait a while to figure out if it was good or bad, but our instinct is to render immediate judgment. And sometimes a school makes a move so strange from a PR perspective that we not only judge, we relish in the judgment.

In late-2011, for instance, Kansas hired Charlie Weis. In his last two jobs, he'd been fired from Notre Dame and put a wholly mediocre Florida offense on the field, but he somehow got another major head coaching job. We laughed, and we judged, and we were correct. Weis went 6-22.

A year later, we judged like crazy when FIU hired Ron Turner. The program had seemingly whiffed twice before they found Turner, both in firing the best coach it ever had (Cristobal) and in trying and failing to hire Davis. In then hiring Turner, a coach we had all decided wasn't any good, they completed the trifecta.

In the eight years before, Turner had gone from college head coach to NFL offensive coordinator to NFL position coach. His Illinois tenure ended when he went 4-19 in 2003-04, and while he coordinated a Chicago Bears offense that went to the Super Bowl, the offense wasn't really the reason.

And when FIU not only went 1-11 in 2013 but looked horrendous in doing so, we judged some more. We closed the book, in fact. And those of us who hadn't did so when FIU began 2014 by losing to Bethune-Cookman.

But then a funny thing happened: FIU started to improve. The offense -- Turner's specialty -- didn't come around (that tends to happen when you're starting freshmen at quarterback and running back), but the defense was dynamite. It ranked 41st in Def. S&P+ despite a late fade, and FIU won four of its final 11 games and came close to winning three others. After plummeting from 83rd to 124th in the F/+ rankings in 2013, the Golden Panthers bounced back to 96th.

Most of the defense returns -- sans the coordinator -- and at the very least, the offense won't be worse, both from the perspective of experience and the "it can't get worse" factor. Is it possible that we closed the book on Turner's FIU experience too soon? Or was "they finished 4-7 and almost did better!" a sad peak?

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 96
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	Bethune-Cookman	N/A	12-14	L	17%	-22.7	57%
6-Sep	Wagner	N/A	34-3	W	71%	12.8	100%
13-Sep	Pittsburgh	43	25-42	L	20%	-19.3	4%
20-Sep	Louisville	23	3-34	L	4%	-40.8	0%
27-Sep	at UAB	79	34-20	W	63%	7.9	83%
2-Oct	Florida Atlantic	100	38-10	W	62%	7.2	96%
11-Oct	at UTSA	109	13-16	L	15%	-24.2	17%
18-Oct	Marshall	17	13-45	L	16%	-23.5	0%
1-Nov	Rice	86	17-31	L	8%	-32.6	1%
8-Nov	at Old Dominion	108	35-38	L	34%	-9.9	46%
15-Nov	Middle Tennessee	87	38-28	W	50%	0.2	69%
22-Nov	at North Texas	125	14-17	L	2%	-48.6	0%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	15.4	125	27.6	61
Points Per Game	23.0	101	24.8	41

2. The defense gave in late

In terms of per-play averages, FIU held each of its first six opponents well below season averages. The Panthers allowed 5.8 yards per play to Pitt, 4.7 to Louisville, and 4.6 to UAB and gave up a combined 27 points to Bethune-Cookman, Wagner, and FAU. This was a stout D, and FIU hit the midway point of the season at 3-3 despite a woeful offense.

(How woeful? FIU averaged greater than 4.9 yards per play just once in this span. The national average is around 5.7 or so. And FIU played two FCS opponents.)

But as is frequently the case, the defense began to cave from lack of support. Injuries were minimal, but the Panthers still sprang leaks. Marshall, Rice, and ODU combined for 7.4 yards per play and 38 points per game. MTSU tacked on 5.5 and 28. And while the D rebounded in the finale against North Texas, the offense regressed to form after a couple of decent performances. The result: a mostly sustained downward slide after top-50-caliber performances against UAB and FAU.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 6 games): 40% (record: 3-3)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 6 games): 21% (record: 1-5)

By handing your offense over to a freshman, as Turner and coordinator Steve Shankweiler did with Alex Mcgough, you are pretty much admitting that you are building for future seasons and sacrificing the present tense. That FIU still finished 4-8 is an encouraging sign.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.76	112	IsoPPP+	70.7	123
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	35.1%	122	Succ. Rt. +	80.7	124
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	33.8	124	Def. FP+	93.1	123
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.1	89	Redzone S&P+	79.8	124
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.0		ACTUAL	22	-2.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	123	124	124	123
RUSHING	107	124	125	126
PASSING	115	120	118	114
Standard Downs		122	123	125
Passing Downs		118	122	111

Q1 Rk	119	1st Down Rk	125
Q2 Rk	107	2nd Down Rk	126
Q3 Rk	125	3rd Down Rk	99
Q4 Rk	126

3. The vision

Let's start with this: when FIU's offense looked decent/good, what did it look like? The full-season numbers are so awful that it's hard to glean anything from them, so let's do a little bit of isolating.

Late in the year against ODU and Middle Tennessee (a wretched defense and a simply bad one, respectively), FIU put up 73 points and 763 yards (5.8 per play), easily the two best performances of the season. In these games, running back Anthon Samuel (a Bowling Green transfer who took over for freshman Alex Gardner, who missed the final four games with a shoulder injury) rushed 44 times for 257 yards and two scores. Against ODU, McGough completed a 57-yard strike to running back Napoleon Maxwell but finished just 8-for-13 with two sacks; against MTSU, he looked great: 17-for-24, 231 yards, three scores, no picks, one sack. Tight end Jonnu Smith went off for eight catches, 140 yards, and all three of McGough's scoring strikes.

FIU's vision of a run-first offense with play-action potential and a big-play tight end briefly came to fruition.

Still, FIU was too young to sustain this vision. Samuel did well against North Texas, too (14 carries, 89 yards), but McGough was horrendous: 11-for-25, 56 yards, three interceptions, three sacks. He finished with a 50 percent completion rate (far too low), a nine percent sack rate (far too high) and a 4 percent interception rate (again too high).

The trick is obvious: reinforce the vision. Whether McGough continues to be the man, or whether he's usurped by a redshirt freshman (Luke Medlock) or a true freshman (Christian Alexander or Maurice Alexander, not related), FIU must figure out how to move the ball on the ground and find receivers. (Turner ran off some receivers in the offseason, and they weren't particularly happy about it.)

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Alex McGough	6'3, 215	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8158	138	274	1680	14	10	50.4%	28	9.3%	4.9
E.J. Hilliard					33	48	336	1	0	68.8%	12	20.0%	4.2
Luke Medlock	6'1, 197	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7938
Christian Alexander	6'3, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8297
Maurice Alexander	6'0, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7915

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Alex Gardner	RB	5'9, 192	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8106	139	562	1	4.0	4.8	32.4%	2	1
Anthon Samuel	RB	5'11, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7200	132	582	5	4.4	3.7	37.1%	0	0
Silas Spearman III (2013)	RB	5'8, 187	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7800	132	368	4	2.8	3.6	22.0%	N/A	N/A
Alex McGough	QB	6'3, 215	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8158	69	300	4	4.3	3.9	33.3%	10	4
Napoleon Maxwell	RB	6'0, 203	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7706	55	254	1	4.6	2.5	41.8%	1	0
Alfonso Randolph (2013)	RB	5'11, 193	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7800	26	56	0	2.2	2.1	30.8%	N/A	N/A
Lamarq Caldwell	RB					20	53	0	2.7	2.5	15.0%	0	0
E.J. Hilliard	QB					17	88	0	5.2	3.6	47.1%	3	2
Terry Bennett	RB	5'10, 204	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7986

4. Young guns vs. really young guns

At quarterback, it's a sophomore vs. a redshirt freshman vs. two true freshmen. At running back, it's a veteran vs. two sophomores who saw playing time vs. two sophomores who saw time in 2013 before redshirting with injury.

At receiver, the leading returnees are a junior tight end and a sophomore receiver who caught 12 passes. Only one other scholarship wideout caught a pass, and Turner was quick to talk up incoming freshman Anthony Jones as if he will quickly be one of FIU's best.

FIU's offense is only going to be marginally more experienced. That's alarming, considering Turner's already entering his third year; youth movements happen in the first year or two, but by the third year, you'd like to have a base of experience.

Regardless, there's plenty to like.

Samuel easily has the best track record of any of the skill players, having rushed for 1,842 yards and 16 touchdowns in two years at Bowling Green. Jonnu Smith's production was up and down, but the highs were quite high: nine for 127 against Wagner, eight for 140 against MTSU, a 75-yard touchdown against UAB. Alex Gardner showed decent big-play potential as a freshman last year, and Napoleon Maxwell showed hints of both potential (42 percent opportunity rate) and explosiveness (the 57-yard reception against ODU). Michigan State transfer Juwan Caesar brings size and a solid recruiting pedigree. And Jones does come to campus with expectations of his own.

There's reason for hope. There's also a ton of youth.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Jonnu Smith	TE	6'3, 230	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7833	84	61	688	72.6%	27.2%	59.5%	8.2	-33	8.2	75.7
Glenn Coleman	WR					52	23	468	44.2%	16.8%	51.9%	9.0	166	8.7	51.5
T.J. Lowder	WR					23	10	121	43.5%	7.4%	65.2%	5.3	-11	4.9	13.3
Dennis Turner	WR	5'11, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8026	21	12	94	57.1%	6.8%	61.9%	4.5	-54	4.4	10.4
Dominique Rhymes	WR					19	7	59	36.8%	6.1%	36.8%	3.1	-38	2.9	6.5
Fred Porter	WR					18	9	91	50.0%	5.8%	38.9%	5.1	-24	6.1	10.0
Ya'Keem Griner	TE	6'4, 235	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	17	9	94	52.9%	5.5%	23.5%	5.5	-19	4.0	10.3
Alex Gardner	RB	5'9, 192	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8106	16	8	48	50.0%	5.2%	37.5%	3.0	-54	2.7	5.3
Akil Dan-Fodio	TE	6'4, 225	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	N/A	13	9	65	69.2%	4.2%	46.2%	5.0	-42	4.6	7.2
Clinton Taylor	WR	5'10, 169	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7700	11	9	86	81.8%	3.6%	27.3%	7.8	-18	8.0	9.5
Napoleon Maxwell	RB	6'0, 203	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7706	8	5	156	62.5%	2.6%	37.5%	19.5	95	19.3	17.2
Richard Burrows	WR					8	2	15	25.0%	2.6%	50.0%	1.9	-16	1.6	1.7
Lamarq Caldwell	RB					6	2	1	33.3%	1.9%	50.0%	0.2	-27	0.3	0.1
De'Andre Jasper	WR					4	2	8	50.0%	1.3%	50.0%	2.0	-17	2.3	0.9
Thomas Owens	WR	6'1, 196	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	3	0	0	0.0%	1.0%	100.0%	0.0	-4	N/A	0.0
Cody Hodgens	WR	5'9, 163	Jr.	NR	NR	1	1	16	100.0%	0.3%	0.0%	16.0	5	N/A	1.8
Jonathan Pavlov	TE	6'4, 251	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7894
Juwan Caesar (Michigan State)	WR	6'5, 219	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8631
Anthony Jones	WR	5'11, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8226

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	77.3	2.46	2.44	34.7%	72.7%	18.7%	60.2	12.0%	9.2%
Rank	124	117	119	107	27	57	125	126	94

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Donald Senat	C					26
Jordan Budwig	LG	6'4, 324	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7941	24
Aaron Nielsen	RT	6'4, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	23
David Delsoin	LT					19
Jordan White	LG					12
Dieugot Joseph	LT	6'6, 294	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726	10
Delmar Taylor	RG					6
Byron Pinkston	RG					6
Trenton Saunders	OG	6'4, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8041	3
Michael Montero	C	6'2, 299	Jr.	NR	NR	0
Edens Sineace	RT	6'5, 303	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	0
Chris Flaig	OG	6'5, 294	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759	0
Kai Absheer	OL	6'5, 305	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000
Josh Deuyour	OL	6'9, 310	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7706
Chris Miller	OL	6'4, 345	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7656

5. At least size isn't an issue

FIU's line will pass the eyeball test. The 10 returnees listed above boast an average size of 6'5, 305, and not all of that comes from monstrous redshirt freshmen Josh Deuyour and Chris Miller. If the idea is to run to set up the pass, Samuel and company will have plenty of beef.

From the perspective of line stats, FIU had one of the least successful lines in the country, ranking 124th in Adj. Line Yards and 125th in Adj. Sack Rate. That the Panthers were good in short yardage situations and avoided negative run plays is a good sign -- perhaps the struggles were due as much to the freshmen getting the carries as the line itself. But the line still bears burden of proof, especially considering five players with starting experience have departed.

Granted, thanks to constant shuffling, four others with starting experience return, including two two-year starters. But while this line probably wasn't as bad as its stats last year and has all the size you could want, it has plenty to prove.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.97	117	IsoPPP+	96.6	77
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	36.8%	17	Succ. Rt. +	109.7	33
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.8	47	Off. FP+	99.0	78
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.6	9	Redzone S&P+	109.4	35
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.7		ACTUAL	33.0	+10.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	36	56	31	77
RUSHING	56	59	47	69
PASSING	30	55	24	83
Standard Downs		82	38	98
Passing Downs		17	15	25

Q1 Rk	51	1st Down Rk	57
Q2 Rk	100	2nd Down Rk	106
Q3 Rk	21	3rd Down Rk	36
Q4 Rk	28

6. ATTAAAACK!

There are two ways for your decent defense to be flawed: either you are too inefficient (bend-don't-break), or your focus on efficiency leads to big plays. You can succeed in either case; Michigan State, for instance, allows some of the biggest big plays in the country but succeeds by allowing very few of them.

FIU followed the Michigan State model. The Panthers were happy to risk big plays to make their own, and it frequently paid off. There were indeed big plays -- while FIU allowed only 86 gains of 10-plus yards (11th in the country), 21 of those went for 30-plus (90th). But FIU had a top-25 pass rush and a top-20 passing downs defense. They sacrificed size for speed, and it worked.

Most of last year's most aggressive pieces are back, including ends Michael Wakefield and Denzel Perine, linebacker Davison Collmon, and sticky corners Richard Leonard, Jeremian McKinnon, and Wilkenson Myrtil. The biggest loss, actually, came in the coaches' booth: coordinator Josh Conklin was impressive enough at FIU that new Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi (formerly the leader of the Michigan State defense) gave him the same role.

In turn, Turner brought aboard former Pitt defensive coordinator Matt House, in need of a job after Paul Chryst went to Wisconsin. Pitt's defense was similarly aggressive but struggled after losing Aaron Donald. House knows how to utilize a good pass rush and will find FIU's pieces to his liking.

(Turner also brought former EMU head coach Ron Cooper to his staff, which should be entertaining if nothing else.)

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101.1	2.80	3.18	34.5%	82.8%	20.5%	127.1	7.0%	10.5%
Rank	56	44	51	23	124	48	23	23	20

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Michael Wakefield	DE	6'3, 254	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	12	32.0	5.0%	14.5	8.0	0	3	4	1
Denzell Perine	DE	6'3, 256	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	12	31.0	4.9%	9.5	6.5	0	1	2	1
Giovani Francois	DE					12	31.0	4.9%	5.5	5.0	0	1	1	0
Lars Koht	DT	6'5, 283	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	12	21.5	3.4%	3.0	1.5	0	0	0	0
Imarjaye Albury	DT	6'0, 277	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8382	12	15.0	2.4%	3.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Darrian Dyson	DT	6'4, 296	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8370	12	14.0	2.2%	4.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Leonard Washington	DT	6'0, 305	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7400	11	3.5	0.5%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Marques Cheeks	DT	6'3, 284	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8116
Josh Glanton	DE	6'3, 253	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7200
Jermaine Sheriff	DE	6'2, 233	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7556
Fermin Silva	DE	6'1, 215	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8361
Irick McDonald	DE	6'3, 222	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8117
R.J. Harris	DL	6'2, 263	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115

7. Florida speed

Technically, FIU doesn't lack for size. Ends Wakefield and Perine both cross 250 pounds, and the top five returning tackles average 6'2, 289, which is neither enormous nor tiny. Still, FIU's defensive front boasted far more speed than resistance. The six primary contributors combined for 40 tackles for loss, 22.5 sacks, and seven forced fumbles but got shoved around in short-yardage situations (Power Success Rate ranking: 124th).

Almost everybody's back up front. Turner says guys like former star recruits Darrian Dyson and Marques Cheeks "look like different guys" after offseason conditioning and weight training, but every head coach in America says that about somebody heading into spring practice. Until proven otherwise, FIU will have a speedy, aggressive front that you can run on.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Treyvon Williams	LB	5'11, 229	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7839	12	42.5	6.7%	4.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Davison Colimon	LB	6'1, 217	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7600	12	40.0	6.3%	8.0	4.0	1	0	0	1
Anthony Wint	LB	6'0, 224	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7876	9	38.0	6.0%	0.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Jordan Guest	LB	6'4, 221	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7683	12	28.5	4.5%	2.0	1.0	0	1	1	0
Luis Rosado	LB	6'2, 234	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7200	12	27.5	4.3%	2.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
De'Shawn Hazziez	LB	6'2, 214	Jr.	NR	NR	12	12.0	1.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Fred Russ	LB	5'10, 222	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7659	6	4.5	0.7%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Vontarius West	LB	5'11, 195	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8331
Jeremy Derrick	LB	6'2, 202	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7906
Sage Lewis	LB	6'1, 228	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7980

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Demarkus Perkins	S					11	57.5	9.0%	4.5	1.5	2	2	1	0
Justin Halley	S					11	39.5	6.2%	0.5	0	0	3	0	0
Richard Leonard	CB	5'9, 189	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.7946	12	36.0	5.7%	1	0	5	7	2	2
Jordan Davis	S	6'1, 218	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7400	12	34.0	5.3%	0	0	1	2	1	0
Jeremiah McKinnon	CB	6'0, 194	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8000	12	32.5	5.1%	2	0	2	5	1	0
Wilkenson Myrtil	CB	6'0, 196	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7500	12	14.0	2.2%	0	0	2	2	0	0
Randy Harvey	CB					11	13.5	2.1%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Shermarke Spence	S	5'9, 182	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7444	12	12.5	2.0%	0	0	1	1	1	0
Deonte Wilson	S	6'0, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7200	12	9.0	1.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Niko Gonzalez	S	5'11, 181	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	9	6.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Vontarius West	S	5'11, 195	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8331	12	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Xavier Hines	CB	5'11, 180	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8274
Bobby Stinson	DB	6'0, 161	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7556
Mark Bruno	DB	5'10, 170	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956
Tyree Johnson	DB	5'9, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7656
Kenyatta Anderson	CB	5'11, 182	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8222
Emmanuel Lubin	CB	6'1, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8106
Olin Cushion III	CB	5'9, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7746
Jestin Green	CB	6'0, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7898

8. Safety play was key last year

Aside from end Giovani Francois, almost literally every member of the front seven is scheduled to return. That's reason for excitement, as is the return of last year's top three cornerbacks, who combined for 23 passes defensed, three tackles for loss, and three forced fumbles.

But starting safeties Demarkus Perkins and Justin Halley must be replaced, which is a bit scary. Perkins was an excellent playmaker, and Halley was important in making sure FIU didn't allow TOO many plays. The return of experienced junior Jordan Davis will help, but the safety depth chart gets awfully young. Quite a few of FIU's more touted signees are defensive backs, plus sophomores Shermarke Spence (two passes defensed in minimal playing time) and Vontarius West (former star recruit) seem to have plenty of potential. But a glitchy safety corps will quickly tamp down your aggressiveness.

(Side note: Olin Cushion III might have the greatest cornerback name ever, even if he's meant for more of a bend-don't-break defense.)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Jose Laphitzondo	6'3, 184	Sr.	59	40.7	4	5	8	22.0%
Chris Ayers	6'0, 180	Jr.	23	35.3	3	6	5	47.8%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Austin Taylor	5'8, 170	Jr.	55	58.5	6	3	10.9%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Austin Taylor	5'8, 170	Jr.	29-30	11-15	73.3%	4-6	66.7%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Richard Leonard	KR	5'9, 189	Sr.	24	25.7	0
Glenn Coleman	KR			6	20.3	0
Richard Leonard	PR	5'9, 189	Sr.	13	23.8	1
Clinton Taylor	PR	5'10, 169	Sr.	7	10.4	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	90
Field Goal Efficiency	61
Punt Return Efficiency	68
Kick Return Efficiency	58
Punt Efficiency	98
Kickoff Efficiency	82
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	76

9. Decent field position components

There was nothing great nor terrible about FIU's special teams. Richard Leonard has loads of potential as a return man, and FIU boasted the rare situational punting platoon (Jose Laphitzondo is the 3-wood, Chris Ayers is the 9-iron). Basically, if FIU's offense can figure out how to move the chains, this unit and defensive big plays should lead to strong field position margins.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rk
5-Sep	at Central Florida	60
12-Sep	at Indiana	88
19-Sep	N.C. Central	NR
26-Sep	at Louisiana Tech	35
3-Oct	at Massachusetts	120
10-Oct	UTEP	90
17-Oct	at Middle Tennessee	87
24-Oct	Old Dominion	108
31-Oct	at Florida Atlantic	100
7-Nov	Charlotte	NR
14-Nov	at Marshall	17
21-Nov	Western Kentucky	50

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-23.3% (102)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	102 / 92
2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	11 / -1.3
2014 TO Luck/Game	+5.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	16 (8, 8)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	4.7 (-0.7)

10. Optimist vs. pessimist

There are two ways to look at FIU. The optimist sees a team that lost a ton of close games and returns most of last year's two-deep (sans the receiving corps). FIU finished a healthy 90th in the F/+ rankings despite the 4-8 record and FCS loss, which speaks to potential. If the quarterback position is stable, FIU's schedule presents enough potential wins (eight opponents ranked 87th or worse in F/+ last year) that another three-win jump could be realistic.

The pessimist can make plenty of solid points. Based on turnovers luck (plus-5.1 points per game, mostly stemming from the defense recovering 19 of opponents' 25 fumbles), the Panthers were lucky to be in so many close games in the first place. Plus, there was a good amount of turnover on the defensive staff, and the quarterback position is unlikely to improve to any major degree. FIU faces four of those eight iffy opponents on the road. And after last year's strange schedule, which featured eight home games, the Panthers get only five.

FIU will likely be a better team, one that will probably get fewer lucky bounces and will definitely get fewer home games. That will tamp down major bowl hopes. But if the passing game isn't a total albatross, the Panthers will be a tough out, giving us an even more conflicted version of the job Ron Turner is doing.

Coaching isn't easy; neither is judging hires. We might find out we were wrong about Turner. (Or we might watch the offense continue to strangle growth until he's fired.)