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The Golden Panthers lost five games by a touchdown or less in 2012, and with the athletic director already tired of Cristobal's flirtation with other schools, they fired him. They whiffed on hiring Butch Davis and replaced Cristobal with former Illinois head coach Ron Turner. And while you never want to render permanent judgments on a hire after just one year, it's almost impossible for 2013 to have gone any worse.
FIU returns most of last year's first- and second-string, and Ron Turner used a few mulligans by bringing in new assistants. The schedule features eight home games and two FCS opponents. The table is set for improvement.
It's hard to get too optimistic, though, isn't it?
Our reaction to coaching hires is like our reaction to recruiting classes. We know we have to wait a while to figure out if it was good or bad, but our instinct is to render immediate judgment. And sometimes a school makes a move so strange from a PR perspective that we not only judge, we relish in the judgment.
In late-2011, for instance, Kansas hired Charlie Weis. In his last two jobs, he'd been fired from Notre Dame and put a wholly mediocre Florida offense on the field, but he somehow got another major head coaching job. We laughed, and we judged, and we were correct. Weis went 6-22.
A year later, we judged like crazy when FIU hired Ron Turner. The program had seemingly whiffed twice before they found Turner, both in firing the best coach it ever had (Cristobal) and in trying and failing to hire Davis. In then hiring Turner, a coach we had all decided wasn't any good, they completed the trifecta.
In the eight years before, Turner had gone from college head coach to NFL offensive coordinator to NFL position coach. His Illinois tenure ended when he went 4-19 in 2003-04, and while he coordinated a Chicago Bears offense that went to the Super Bowl, the offense wasn't really the reason.
And when FIU not only went 1-11 in 2013 but looked horrendous in doing so, we judged some more. We closed the book, in fact. And those of us who hadn't did so when FIU began 2014 by losing to Bethune-Cookman.
But then a funny thing happened: FIU started to improve. The offense -- Turner's specialty -- didn't come around (that tends to happen when you're starting freshmen at quarterback and running back), but the defense was dynamite. It ranked 41st in Def. S&P+ despite a late fade, and FIU won four of its final 11 games and came close to winning three others. After plummeting from 83rd to 124th in the F/+ rankings in 2013, the Golden Panthers bounced back to 96th.
Most of the defense returns -- sans the coordinator -- and at the very least, the offense won't be worse, both from the perspective of experience and the "it can't get worse" factor. Is it possible that we closed the book on Turner's FIU experience too soon? Or was "they finished 4-7 and almost did better!" a sad peak?
2014 Schedule & Results
|Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 96|
|Date||Opponent||Opp. F/+ Rk||Score||W-L||Percentile
|8-Nov||at Old Dominion||108||35-38||L||34%||-9.9||46%|
|22-Nov||at North Texas||125||14-17||L||2%||-48.6||0%|
|Points Per Game||23.0||101||24.8||41|
2. The defense gave in late
In terms of per-play averages, FIU held each of its first six opponents well below season averages. The Panthers allowed 5.8 yards per play to Pitt, 4.7 to Louisville, and 4.6 to UAB and gave up a combined 27 points to Bethune-Cookman, Wagner, and FAU. This was a stout D, and FIU hit the midway point of the season at 3-3 despite a woeful offense.
(How woeful? FIU averaged greater than 4.9 yards per play just once in this span. The national average is around 5.7 or so. And FIU played two FCS opponents.)
But as is frequently the case, the defense began to cave from lack of support. Injuries were minimal, but the Panthers still sprang leaks. Marshall, Rice, and ODU combined for 7.4 yards per play and 38 points per game. MTSU tacked on 5.5 and 28. And while the D rebounded in the finale against North Texas, the offense regressed to form after a couple of decent performances. The result: a mostly sustained downward slide after top-50-caliber performances against UAB and FAU.
- Average Percentile Performance (first 6 games): 40% (record: 3-3)
- Average Percentile Performance (last 6 games): 21% (record: 1-5)
By handing your offense over to a freshman, as Turner and coordinator Steve Shankweiler did with Alex Mcgough, you are pretty much admitting that you are building for future seasons and sacrificing the present tense. That FIU still finished 4-8 is an encouraging sign.
|FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE|
|Raw Category||Rk||Opp. Adj. Category||Rk|
|EFFICIENCY||Succ. Rt.||35.1%||122||Succ. Rt. +||80.7||124|
|FIELD POSITION||Def. Avg. FP||33.8||124||Def. FP+||93.1||123|
|FINISHING DRIVES||Pts. Per Trip in 40||4.1||89||Redzone S&P+||79.8||124|
|Q1 Rk||119||1st Down Rk||125|
|Q2 Rk||107||2nd Down Rk||126|
|Q3 Rk||125||3rd Down Rk||99|
3. The vision
Let's start with this: when FIU's offense looked decent/good, what did it look like? The full-season numbers are so awful that it's hard to glean anything from them, so let's do a little bit of isolating.
Late in the year against ODU and Middle Tennessee (a wretched defense and a simply bad one, respectively), FIU put up 73 points and 763 yards (5.8 per play), easily the two best performances of the season. In these games, running back Anthon Samuel (a Bowling Green transfer who took over for freshman Alex Gardner, who missed the final four games with a shoulder injury) rushed 44 times for 257 yards and two scores. Against ODU, McGough completed a 57-yard strike to running back Napoleon Maxwell but finished just 8-for-13 with two sacks; against MTSU, he looked great: 17-for-24, 231 yards, three scores, no picks, one sack. Tight end Jonnu Smith went off for eight catches, 140 yards, and all three of McGough's scoring strikes.
FIU's vision of a run-first offense with play-action potential and a big-play tight end briefly came to fruition.
Still, FIU was too young to sustain this vision. Samuel did well against North Texas, too (14 carries, 89 yards), but McGough was horrendous: 11-for-25, 56 yards, three interceptions, three sacks. He finished with a 50 percent completion rate (far too low), a nine percent sack rate (far too high) and a 4 percent interception rate (again too high).
The trick is obvious: reinforce the vision. Whether McGough continues to be the man, or whether he's usurped by a redshirt freshman (Luke Medlock) or a true freshman (Christian Alexander or Maurice Alexander, not related), FIU must figure out how to move the ball on the ground and find receivers. (Turner ran off some receivers in the offseason, and they weren't particularly happy about it.)
Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.
|Alex McGough||6'3, 215||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8158||138||274||1680||14||10||50.4%||28||9.3%||4.9|
|Luke Medlock||6'1, 197||RSFr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7938|
|Christian Alexander||6'3, 205||Fr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.8297|
|Maurice Alexander||6'0, 175||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7915|
|Alex Gardner||RB||5'9, 192||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8106||139||562||1||4.0||4.8||32.4%||2||1|
|Anthon Samuel||RB||5'11, 200||Sr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7200||132||582||5||4.4||3.7||37.1%||0||0|
|Silas Spearman III (2013)||RB||5'8, 187||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7800||132||368||4||2.8||3.6||22.0%||N/A||N/A|
|Alex McGough||QB||6'3, 215||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8158||69||300||4||4.3||3.9||33.3%||10||4|
|Napoleon Maxwell||RB||6'0, 203||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7706||55||254||1||4.6||2.5||41.8%||1||0|
|Alfonso Randolph (2013)||RB||5'11, 193||So.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7800||26||56||0||2.2||2.1||30.8%||N/A||N/A|
|Terry Bennett||RB||5'10, 204||Fr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7986|
4. Young guns vs. really young guns
At quarterback, it's a sophomore vs. a redshirt freshman vs. two true freshmen. At running back, it's a veteran vs. two sophomores who saw playing time vs. two sophomores who saw time in 2013 before redshirting with injury.
At receiver, the leading returnees are a junior tight end and a sophomore receiver who caught 12 passes. Only one other scholarship wideout caught a pass, and Turner was quick to talk up incoming freshman Anthony Jones as if he will quickly be one of FIU's best.
FIU's offense is only going to be marginally more experienced. That's alarming, considering Turner's already entering his third year; youth movements happen in the first year or two, but by the third year, you'd like to have a base of experience.
Regardless, there's plenty to like.
Samuel easily has the best track record of any of the skill players, having rushed for 1,842 yards and 16 touchdowns in two years at Bowling Green. Jonnu Smith's production was up and down, but the highs were quite high: nine for 127 against Wagner, eight for 140 against MTSU, a 75-yard touchdown against UAB. Alex Gardner showed decent big-play potential as a freshman last year, and Napoleon Maxwell showed hints of both potential (42 percent opportunity rate) and explosiveness (the 57-yard reception against ODU). Michigan State transfer Juwan Caesar brings size and a solid recruiting pedigree. And Jones does come to campus with expectations of his own.
There's reason for hope. There's also a ton of youth.
|Rivals||247 Comp.||Targets||Catches||Yards||Catch Rate||Target
|Jonnu Smith||TE||6'3, 230||Jr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7833||84||61||688||72.6%||27.2%||59.5%||8.2||-33||8.2||75.7|
|Dennis Turner||WR||5'11, 175||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8026||21||12||94||57.1%||6.8%||61.9%||4.5||-54||4.4||10.4|
|Ya'Keem Griner||TE||6'4, 235||Sr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7000||17||9||94||52.9%||5.5%||23.5%||5.5||-19||4.0||10.3|
|Alex Gardner||RB||5'9, 192||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8106||16||8||48||50.0%||5.2%||37.5%||3.0||-54||2.7||5.3|
|Akil Dan-Fodio||TE||6'4, 225||Sr.||3 stars (5.5)||N/A||13||9||65||69.2%||4.2%||46.2%||5.0||-42||4.6||7.2|
|Clinton Taylor||WR||5'10, 169||Sr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7700||11||9||86||81.8%||3.6%||27.3%||7.8||-18||8.0||9.5|
|Napoleon Maxwell||RB||6'0, 203||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7706||8||5||156||62.5%||2.6%||37.5%||19.5||95||19.3||17.2|
|Thomas Owens||WR||6'1, 196||So.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7000||3||0||0||0.0%||1.0%||100.0%||0.0||-4||N/A||0.0|
|Cody Hodgens||WR||5'9, 163||Jr.||NR||NR||1||1||16||100.0%||0.3%||0.0%||16.0||5||N/A||1.8|
|Jonathan Pavlov||TE||6'4, 251||So.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7894|
|WR||6'5, 219||Jr.||3 stars (5.7)||0.8631|
|Anthony Jones||WR||5'11, 190||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8226|
|Rivals||247 Comp.||Career Starts||Honors/Notes|
|Jordan Budwig||LG||6'4, 324||Jr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7941||24|
|Aaron Nielsen||RT||6'4, 290||Sr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7000||23|
|Dieugot Joseph||LT||6'6, 294||Jr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7726||10|
|Trenton Saunders||OG||6'4, 290||Jr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.8041||3|
|Michael Montero||C||6'2, 299||Jr.||NR||NR||0|
|Edens Sineace||RT||6'5, 303||Jr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.7000||0|
|Chris Flaig||OG||6'5, 294||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7759||0|
|Kai Absheer||OL||6'5, 305||RSFr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7000|
|Josh Deuyour||OL||6'9, 310||RSFr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7706|
|Chris Miller||OL||6'4, 345||RSFr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7656|
5. At least size isn't an issue
FIU's line will pass the eyeball test. The 10 returnees listed above boast an average size of 6'5, 305, and not all of that comes from monstrous redshirt freshmen Josh Deuyour and Chris Miller. If the idea is to run to set up the pass, Samuel and company will have plenty of beef.
From the perspective of line stats, FIU had one of the least successful lines in the country, ranking 124th in Adj. Line Yards and 125th in Adj. Sack Rate. That the Panthers were good in short yardage situations and avoided negative run plays is a good sign -- perhaps the struggles were due as much to the freshmen getting the carries as the line itself. But the line still bears burden of proof, especially considering five players with starting experience have departed.
Granted, thanks to constant shuffling, four others with starting experience return, including two two-year starters. But while this line probably wasn't as bad as its stats last year and has all the size you could want, it has plenty to prove.
|FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE|
|Raw Category||Rk||Opp. Adj. Category||Rk|
|EFFICIENCY||Succ. Rt.||36.8%||17||Succ. Rt. +||109.7||33|
|FIELD POSITION||Off. Avg. FP||30.8||47||Off. FP+||99.0||78|
|FINISHING DRIVES||Pts. Per Trip in 40||3.6||9||Redzone S&P+||109.4||35|
|Q1 Rk||51||1st Down Rk||57|
|Q2 Rk||100||2nd Down Rk||106|
|Q3 Rk||21||3rd Down Rk||36|
There are two ways for your decent defense to be flawed: either you are too inefficient (bend-don't-break), or your focus on efficiency leads to big plays. You can succeed in either case; Michigan State, for instance, allows some of the biggest big plays in the country but succeeds by allowing very few of them.
FIU followed the Michigan State model. The Panthers were happy to risk big plays to make their own, and it frequently paid off. There were indeed big plays -- while FIU allowed only 86 gains of 10-plus yards (11th in the country), 21 of those went for 30-plus (90th). But FIU had a top-25 pass rush and a top-20 passing downs defense. They sacrificed size for speed, and it worked.
Most of last year's most aggressive pieces are back, including ends Michael Wakefield and Denzel Perine, linebacker Davison Collmon, and sticky corners Richard Leonard, Jeremian McKinnon, and Wilkenson Myrtil. The biggest loss, actually, came in the coaches' booth: coordinator Josh Conklin was impressive enough at FIU that new Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi (formerly the leader of the Michigan State defense) gave him the same role.
In turn, Turner brought aboard former Pitt defensive coordinator Matt House, in need of a job after Paul Chryst went to Wisconsin. Pitt's defense was similarly aggressive but struggled after losing Aaron Donald. House knows how to utilize a good pass rush and will find FIU's pieces to his liking.
(Turner also brought former EMU head coach Ron Cooper to his staff, which should be entertaining if nothing else.)
|Rivals||247 Comp.||GP||Tackles||% of Team||TFL||Sacks||Int||PBU||FF||FR|
|Michael Wakefield||DE||6'3, 254||Sr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7000||12||32.0||5.0%||14.5||8.0||0||3||4||1|
|Denzell Perine||DE||6'3, 256||Sr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.7000||12||31.0||4.9%||9.5||6.5||0||1||2||1|
|Lars Koht||DT||6'5, 283||Sr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7000||12||21.5||3.4%||3.0||1.5||0||0||0||0|
|Imarjaye Albury||DT||6'0, 277||Jr.||3 stars (5.6)||0.8382||12||15.0||2.4%||3.5||1.5||0||0||0||0|
|Darrian Dyson||DT||6'4, 296||Sr.||3 stars (5.7)||0.8370||12||14.0||2.2%||4.0||0.0||0||1||0||0|
|Leonard Washington||DT||6'0, 305||Jr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7400||11||3.5||0.5%||0.5||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Marques Cheeks||DT||6'3, 284||Jr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.8116|
|Josh Glanton||DE||6'3, 253||Jr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7200|
|Jermaine Sheriff||DE||6'2, 233||RSFr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7556|
|Fermin Silva||DE||6'1, 215||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8361|
|Irick McDonald||DE||6'3, 222||Fr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.8117|
|R.J. Harris||DL||6'2, 263||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8115|
7. Florida speed
Technically, FIU doesn't lack for size. Ends Wakefield and Perine both cross 250 pounds, and the top five returning tackles average 6'2, 289, which is neither enormous nor tiny. Still, FIU's defensive front boasted far more speed than resistance. The six primary contributors combined for 40 tackles for loss, 22.5 sacks, and seven forced fumbles but got shoved around in short-yardage situations (Power Success Rate ranking: 124th).
Almost everybody's back up front. Turner says guys like former star recruits Darrian Dyson and Marques Cheeks "look like different guys" after offseason conditioning and weight training, but every head coach in America says that about somebody heading into spring practice. Until proven otherwise, FIU will have a speedy, aggressive front that you can run on.
|Rivals||247 Comp.||GP||Tackles||% of Team||TFL||Sacks||Int||PBU||FF||FR|
|Treyvon Williams||LB||5'11, 229||Jr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7839||12||42.5||6.7%||4.5||1.0||0||1||0||0|
|Davison Colimon||LB||6'1, 217||Sr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7600||12||40.0||6.3%||8.0||4.0||1||0||0||1|
|Anthony Wint||LB||6'0, 224||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7876||9||38.0||6.0%||0.5||0.0||0||0||1||0|
|Jordan Guest||LB||6'4, 221||So.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7683||12||28.5||4.5%||2.0||1.0||0||1||1||0|
|Luis Rosado||LB||6'2, 234||Sr.||2 stars (5.2)||0.7200||12||27.5||4.3%||2.5||0.0||0||1||0||0|
|De'Shawn Hazziez||LB||6'2, 214||Jr.||NR||NR||12||12.0||1.9%||0.0||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Fred Russ||LB||5'10, 222||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7659||6||4.5||0.7%||1.0||0.0||0||0||1||0|
|Vontarius West||LB||5'11, 195||So.||3 stars (5.6)||0.8331|
|Jeremy Derrick||LB||6'2, 202||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7906|
|Sage Lewis||LB||6'1, 228||Fr.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7980|
|Rivals||247 Comp.||GP||Tackles||% of Team||TFL||Sacks||Int||PBU||FF||FR|
|Richard Leonard||CB||5'9, 189||Sr.||3 stars (5.6)||0.7946||12||36.0||5.7%||1||0||5||7||2||2|
|Jordan Davis||S||6'1, 218||Jr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7400||12||34.0||5.3%||0||0||1||2||1||0|
|Jeremiah McKinnon||CB||6'0, 194||Sr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.8000||12||32.5||5.1%||2||0||2||5||1||0|
|Wilkenson Myrtil||CB||6'0, 196||Jr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7500||12||14.0||2.2%||0||0||2||2||0||0|
|Shermarke Spence||S||5'9, 182||So.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7444||12||12.5||2.0%||0||0||1||1||1||0|
|Deonte Wilson||S||6'0, 190||Jr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.7200||12||9.0||1.4%||0||0||0||0||0||0|
|Niko Gonzalez||S||5'11, 181||So.||2 stars (5.3)||0.7000||9||6.5||1.0%||0||0||0||0||0||0|
|Vontarius West||S||5'11, 195||So.||3 stars (5.6)||0.8331||12||4.5||0.7%||0||0||0||0||0||0|
|Xavier Hines||CB||5'11, 180||So.||3 stars (5.6)||0.8274|
|Bobby Stinson||DB||6'0, 161||RSFr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7556|
|Mark Bruno||DB||5'10, 170||RSFr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7956|
|Tyree Johnson||DB||5'9, 175||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7656|
|Kenyatta Anderson||CB||5'11, 182||Fr.||3 stars (5.5)||0.8222|
|Emmanuel Lubin||CB||6'1, 185||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.8106|
|Olin Cushion III||CB||5'9, 175||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7746|
|Jestin Green||CB||6'0, 175||Fr.||2 stars (5.4)||0.7898|
8. Safety play was key last year
Aside from end Giovani Francois, almost literally every member of the front seven is scheduled to return. That's reason for excitement, as is the return of last year's top three cornerbacks, who combined for 23 passes defensed, three tackles for loss, and three forced fumbles.
But starting safeties Demarkus Perkins and Justin Halley must be replaced, which is a bit scary. Perkins was an excellent playmaker, and Halley was important in making sure FIU didn't allow TOO many plays. The return of experienced junior Jordan Davis will help, but the safety depth chart gets awfully young. Quite a few of FIU's more touted signees are defensive backs, plus sophomores Shermarke Spence (two passes defensed in minimal playing time) and Vontarius West (former star recruit) seem to have plenty of potential. But a glitchy safety corps will quickly tamp down your aggressiveness.
(Side note: Olin Cushion III might have the greatest cornerback name ever, even if he's meant for more of a bend-don't-break defense.)
|Jose Laphitzondo||6'3, 184||Sr.||59||40.7||4||5||8||22.0%|
|Chris Ayers||6'0, 180||Jr.||23||35.3||3||6||5||47.8%|
|Austin Taylor||5'8, 170||Jr.||55||58.5||6||3||10.9%|
|Austin Taylor||5'8, 170||Jr.||29-30||11-15||73.3%||4-6||66.7%|
|Richard Leonard||KR||5'9, 189||Sr.||24||25.7||0|
|Richard Leonard||PR||5'9, 189||Sr.||13||23.8||1|
|Clinton Taylor||PR||5'10, 169||Sr.||7||10.4||0|
|Special Teams F/+||90|
|Field Goal Efficiency||61|
|Punt Return Efficiency||68|
|Kick Return Efficiency||58|
|Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency||76|
9. Decent field position components
There was nothing great nor terrible about FIU's special teams. Richard Leonard has loads of potential as a return man, and FIU boasted the rare situational punting platoon (Jose Laphitzondo is the 3-wood, Chris Ayers is the 9-iron). Basically, if FIU's offense can figure out how to move the chains, this unit and defensive big plays should lead to strong field position margins.
2015 Schedule & Projection Factors
|Date||Opponent||2014 F/+ Rk|
|5-Sep||at Central Florida||60|
|26-Sep||at Louisiana Tech||35|
|17-Oct||at Middle Tennessee||87|
|31-Oct||at Florida Atlantic||100|
|Five-Year F/+ Rk||-23.3% (102)|
|2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk||102 / 92|
|2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*||11 / -1.3|
|2014 TO Luck/Game||+5.1|
|Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)||16 (8, 8)|
|2014 Second-order wins (difference)||4.7 (-0.7)|
10. Optimist vs. pessimist
There are two ways to look at FIU. The optimist sees a team that lost a ton of close games and returns most of last year's two-deep (sans the receiving corps). FIU finished a healthy 90th in the F/+ rankings despite the 4-8 record and FCS loss, which speaks to potential. If the quarterback position is stable, FIU's schedule presents enough potential wins (eight opponents ranked 87th or worse in F/+ last year) that another three-win jump could be realistic.
The pessimist can make plenty of solid points. Based on turnovers luck (plus-5.1 points per game, mostly stemming from the defense recovering 19 of opponents' 25 fumbles), the Panthers were lucky to be in so many close games in the first place. Plus, there was a good amount of turnover on the defensive staff, and the quarterback position is unlikely to improve to any major degree. FIU faces four of those eight iffy opponents on the road. And after last year's strange schedule, which featured eight home games, the Panthers get only five.
FIU will likely be a better team, one that will probably get fewer lucky bounces and will definitely get fewer home games. That will tamp down major bowl hopes. But if the passing game isn't a total albatross, the Panthers will be a tough out, giving us an even more conflicted version of the job Ron Turner is doing.
Coaching isn't easy; neither is judging hires. We might find out we were wrong about Turner. (Or we might watch the offense continue to strangle growth until he's fired.)