The big 2015 UTEP football guide: The power of identity

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1. The power of identity

Freshmen become sophomores, and injuries usually heal. That's the best news one can deliver for UTEP. There's no massive talent infusion, but after fighting through depth issues in 2013, the Miners will be more experienced, deeper, and (probably) healthier. They are bigger in the trenches, even deeper at running back, and more experienced in the secondary, and last year's new systems are no longer new.

I could have batted 1.000 in intramural softball if I was disciplined enough. I bat left-handed, and when I came to the plate, someone on the defense would yell "LEFTY!" and everybody would shift toward right field. I would then poke a single down the left field line. It worked every time. But then I'd get cocky, swing away, and fly out to shallow right.

With experience, solid coaching, and the memory of a disastrous 2013 season still fresh, UTEP was the one of the most disciplined singles hitters in college football last year.

No team seemed to know what it was more than the Miners. I mean that mostly as a compliment. Understanding your strengths, your weaknesses, and your mortality will give you the best chance of succeeding without pride getting in the way.

In head coach Sean Kugler's second year in El Paso, he took into battle a team that had a couple of good running backs, a single receiver, and decent defensive speed. He figured out how to go 7-6. Against teams that were more athletic and/or deeper, the Miners played to their strengths, slowed the pace to a crawl, and prepared to take advantage of mistakes.

It was the formula Paul Rhoads used to pull upsets and go to three bowls in four years at Iowa State. It can keep you in a lot of games and set the table for upsets or near-upsets -- UTEP lost to Texas Tech by just four points (which seemed more impressive at the time) and narrowly lost at Western Kentucky. It also gets you blown out from time to time.

UTEP's cautious, opportunistic style resulted in a winning Conference USA record, the program's second bowl bid in nine seasons, and four rather non-competitive losses. If opponents didn't make enough mistakes, the Miners couldn't create opportunities on their own.

Kugler knew what he was getting into. The former UTEP offensive lineman spent two decades coaching for Florida high schools, UTEP (mostly under Charlie Bailey, who went 19-48-1 from 1994-99), the Detroit Lions, Boise State, the Buffalo Bills, and the Pittsburgh Steelers. He mastered the art of coaching offensive linemen, and in two years he has coached like a lineman plays: smart, physical, ready to take the pounding.

Kugler did a hell of a job. But a style that includes almost no margin for error will fail as often as it succeeds. Rhoads, after all, is both a respected coach and a guy with a 29-46 record in Ames. The long-term trick will be figuring out how to draw enough depth and athleticism to give his squad a bit more of that margin. And to find a quarterback.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 4-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 90
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	at New Mexico	94	31-24	W	64%	8.1	92%
6-Sep	Texas Tech	82	26-30	L	18%	-21.3	13%
13-Sep	New Mexico State	124	42-24	W	75%	15.8	100%
27-Sep	at Kansas State	26	28-58	L	4%	-42.0	0%
4-Oct	at Louisiana Tech	35	3-55	L	1%	-52.4	0%
11-Oct	Old Dominion	108	42-35	W	48%	-1.1	68%
25-Oct	at UTSA	109	34-0	W	97%	45.2	100%
1-Nov	Southern Miss	110	35-14	W	41%	-5.3	83%
8-Nov	at Western Kentucky	50	27-35	L	36%	-8.4	27%
15-Nov	North Texas	125	35-17	W	96%	42.0	100%
21-Nov	at Rice	86	13-31	L	10%	-30.2	1%
29-Nov	Middle Tennessee	87	24-21	W	42%	-5.0	47%
20-Dec	vs. Utah State	52	6-21	L	16%	-23.7	1%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	25.4	88	29.9	77
Points Per Game	26.6	84	28.1	77

2. Punching your weight

There are two ways to look at UTEP. First, there's the "everything worked or nothing worked" perspective.

• Average Percentile Performance (7 wins): 66% (average score: UTEP 35, Opponent 19)
• Average Percentile Performance (6 losses): 14% (average score: Opponent 38, UTEP 17)

Of UTEP's 13 games, eight were decided by at least 15 points. And considering the slow tempo UTEP insisted on, 15 points is like 24 points for a more fast-paced team like Bowling Green or Western Kentucky.

Perspective No. 2: UTEP pounded bad teams and got pounded by good teams.

• Average Percentile Performance (vs. F/+ top 60): 14% (record: 0-4 | average score: Opponent 42, UTEP 16)
• Average Percentile Performance (vs. F/+ No. 61-100): 34% (record: 2-2 | average score: Opponent 27, UTEP 24)
• Average Percentile Performance (vs. F/+ No. 101+): 71% (record: 5-0 | average score: UTEP 38, Opponent 18)

(Here's your regular reminder that the percentiles are opponent-adjusted, so while it may seem like a no-brainer that UTEP would fare better against bad teams, the degree to which the Miners played better or worse was unique.)

UTEP was a pretty awful good team, but the Miners may have been the soundest bad team in the country. They punched their weight. There are worse things in the world than this, though it did require playing quite a few bad teams to reach bowl eligibility.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.81	89	IsoPPP+	91.0	89
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.6%	55	Succ. Rt. +	91.7	101
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.1	74	Def. FP+	99.0	77
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.5	63	Redzone S&P+	96.6	75
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.1		ACTUAL	12	-3.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	108	93	99	89
RUSHING	35	59	70	58
PASSING	120	121	125	106
Standard Downs		68	55	85
Passing Downs		114	128	91

Q1 Rk	48	1st Down Rk	114
Q2 Rk	99	2nd Down Rk	99
Q3 Rk	109	3rd Down Rk	109
Q4 Rk	117

3. Ground, pound, and slow it down

If you recognized one name on last year's UTEP offense, it was probably Jameill Showers, the Texas A&M transfer and two-year UTEP starter. That makes sense, but it's also misleading -- the quarterback had as little as possible to do with UTEP's offense.

Two stats tell you everything you need to know:

1. Adjusting for down and distance, only eight teams ran the ball more frequently; three were service academies, and three others (New Mexico, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech) have option-heavy offenses. That leaves two: Boston College and Minnesota.
   
   
2. Adjusting for run-pass ratios, no team operated at a slower pace than UTEP, which ran frequently, rarely ran out of bounds, and took its sweet time getting back to the line of scrimmage.

UTEP was a slow, run-happy team, both because it wanted to be and because it had to be -- the passing game was awful. And considering the loss of both Showers and the only three receivers/tight ends to catch more than six passes last year, that probably won't change.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Jameill Showers					159	286	1858	12	6	55.6%	13	4.3%	5.9
Mack Leftwich (2013)	5'10, 190	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7583	44	75	458	2	2	58.7%	10	11.8%	4.6
Garrett Simpson	6'7, 250	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000
Ryan Metz	6'4, 205	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7500
Kavika Johnson	6'1, 205	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Aaron Jones	RB	5'10, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8094	241	1328	11	5.5	5.3	41.1%	4	3
Nathan Jeffery	RB					114	531	5	4.7	3.7	35.1%	1	0
Jameill Showers	QB					80	393	4	4.9	3.3	43.8%	0	0
Josh Bell	FB					52	256	4	4.9	4.9	32.7%	1	0
Autrey Golden	RB	5'11, 180	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8053	15	101	0	6.7	9.1	46.7%	1	0
David Hamm	RB	6'0, 220	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7982	14	96	0	6.9	6.6	42.9%	1	1
Darrin Laufasa	FB	6'1, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752	14	41	1	2.9	1.4	35.7%	0	0
Jeremiah Laufasa	RB	6'0, 215	Sr.	NR	NR	9	65	1	7.2	4.7	55.6%	0	0
Jacob Martinez	RB					7	16	0	2.3	0.7	14.3%	0	0
Treyvon Hughes	RB	6'1, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8433

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Ian Hamilton	WR-Z					54	27	579	50.0%	19.5%	53.7%	10.7	235	10.9	54.0
Autrey Golden	RB	5'11, 180	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8053	48	31	263	64.6%	17.3%	45.8%	5.5	-111	5.4	24.5
Aaron Jones	RB	5'10, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8094	40	30	293	75.0%	14.4%	40.0%	7.3	-60	6.4	27.3
Eric Tomlinson	TE					31	19	134	61.3%	11.2%	48.4%	4.3	-98	4.3	12.5
Jarrad Shaw	WR-X					28	14	174	50.0%	10.1%	60.7%	6.2	-4	6.2	16.2
Josh Bell	FB					16	9	64	56.3%	5.8%	50.0%	4.0	-48	4.2	6.0
Katrae Ford	TE					15	6	43	40.0%	5.4%	73.3%	2.9	-38	2.8	4.0
Nathan Jeffery	RB					10	7	67	70.0%	3.6%	50.0%	6.7	-16	7.1	6.3
Jaquan White	WR-Z	5'11, 190	Jr.	NR	NR	8	4	95	50.0%	2.9%	0.0%	11.9	44	N/A	8.9
Darrin Laufasa	FB	6'1, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752	7	5	16	71.4%	2.5%	71.4%	2.3	-43	2.4	1.5
Malcolm Trail	WR-Z					6	3	64	50.0%	2.2%	66.7%	10.7	26	10.2	6.0
Tyler Batson	WR-X	6'0, 195	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7719	6	1	11	16.7%	2.2%	50.0%	1.8	-8	2.1	1.0
Cole Rogers	TE	6'4, 225	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	4	2	25	50.0%	1.4%	50.0%	6.3	0	6.0	2.3
Cole Freytag	WR-Z	6'2, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	2	0	0	0.0%	0.7%	100.0%	0.0	-3	N/A	0.0
Jeremiah Laufasa	RB	6'0, 215	Sr.	NR	NR	1	1	30	100.0%	0.4%	0.0%	30.0	19	N/A	2.8
Daniel Siller	WR	6'1, 200	Sr.	NR	NR
Brandon Moss	WR	6'3, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000
Elliott Oldham	WR	6'3, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7633
Terry Juniel	WR	5'10, 170	So.	2 stars	0.7483

4. The leading returning wideout had 4 catches

When Showers missed time with injury in 2013, really bad things happened. Mack Leftwich got the job and did little with it -- he completed a higher percentage of passes, but they didn't go anywhere, and he took sacks on one of every nine pass attempts.

Leftwich was just a freshman. He took a redshirt in 2014 and could emerge ready to lead a decent offense, at least if he beats out big Garrett Simpson, redshirt freshman Ryan Metz, or incoming Kavika Johnson. Whoever wins the job will have won a reasonably competitive contest, which is good.

The winner will still need receivers. And UTEP's returning wideouts combined to catch just five of 16 passes for 106 yards last year. Jaquan White caught a 75-yard bomb against UTSA last year and caught three other passes for 20 yards; that makes him the default go-to guy. Sophomore Tyler Batson boasts a decent recruiting pedigree, and Kugler signed two JUCO receivers as an acknowledgement of need. So there might be options.

If UTEP can at least pretend to throw, the running game should be fine. The Miners weren't incredibly efficient on the ground, but leading rusher Aaron Jones is back after not only carrying 19 times per game but also serving as the de facto No. 2 receiver in a checkdown-heavy offense. Combining carries and targets, UTEP tried to get Jones the ball about 22 times per game, and he gave them 122 yards per game as a thank you.

Senior Autrey Golden and sophomore David Hamm each showed some potential explosiveness in reserve roles, and between those two, Washington State transfer Jeremiah Laufasa, and incoming freshman Treyvon Hughes, at least one high-caliber backup should emerge.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100.8	3.28	3.11	39.5%	76.6%	14.7%	136.5	7.3%	1.6%
Rank	68	26	84	61	14	12	25	110	1

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Jerel Watkins	LT					42	2014 2nd All-CUSA
Jerome Daniels	RT	6'3, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	14
Will Hernandez	LG	6'3, 320	So.	NR	N/A	13
Eric Lee	C	6'1, 295	Sr.	NR	N/A	13
Paulo Melendez	RG					13
Derek Elmendorff	RG	6'3, 310	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7585	11
Chris Thomas	RG	6'4, 315	Jr.	NR	0.7000	1
Chris Thummel	LT	6'4, 280	So.	NR	N/A	0
Dewan Edmonson	LG					0
Erik Ramirez	C	6'3, 285	So.	NR	N/A	0
Josh Silvas	RT	6'4, 350	Sr.	NR	N/A	0

5. Identifying an inefficiency

In a recent advanced stats manifesto, I mentioned the need for examining causes of inaccuracy in recruiting rankings and determining which positions are over- or undervalued. I'm pretty sure that when we go down this road, we'll find that one can build a strong offensive line without four-star recruits.

You hear from a lot of people that weight training and position coaching make more of a different on the offensive line than in any other area, and UTEP's success could be an affirmative example. Kugler was a bit of a lineman whisperer as an assistant coach, and OL coach Spencer Leftwich (father of Mack) has led lines everywhere from Pitt to Tulsa to New Mexico State.

In 2014, UTEP started three low-two-star recruits and two unrated recruits -- with only one returning starter -- and kept opponents out of the backfield as well as anybody in the country. UTEP ranked 12th in Stuff Rate (run stops at or behind the line) and first in passing downs sack rate and pushed opponents around in short-yardage situations (14th in Power Success Rate).

Despite the loss of all-conference, four-year starting tackle Jerel Watkins, it's hard to worry about the line. Five players with starting experience return, size isn't an issue (average size of the eight returnees: 6'3, 306), and, well, this staff has a track record.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.03	124	IsoPPP+	92.2	93
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.9%	51	Succ. Rt. +	107.5	38
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.5	60	Off. FP+	98.0	88
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.5	75	Redzone S&P+	102.5	52
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.0		ACTUAL	21.0	-1.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	39	70	50	93
RUSHING	79	97	79	102
PASSING	15	49	19	74
Standard Downs		102	65	116
Passing Downs		30	34	29

Q1 Rk	22	1st Down Rk	77
Q2 Rk	35	2nd Down Rk	120
Q3 Rk	116	3rd Down Rk	58
Q4 Rk	115

6. Get them before they get you

As conservative as I've made UTEP sound, you might assume the Miners boasted some extreme bend-don't-break defense. Wait for your opponent to make a mistake, and then pounce, right?

Not the case. UTEP lacked acceptable size/quality up front but had decent speed, so defensive coordinator Scott Stoker decided the best approach was to attack instead of just getting pushed around all the way down the field.

The result: a defense that struggled mightily against the run and gave up big plays but invaded the backfield with regularity. And after a slow start, the Miners figured out how to made a passer awfully uncomfortable. UTEP managed only two sacks in the first five games, then recorded 23 in the final eight, including four against Southern Miss and Utah State.

The Miners allowed 161 gains of 10-plus yards in 2014 (34th in the country), but 76 of those went for 20-plus (118th). They were great on passing downs, but in trying to force passing downs, they got gashed a few times per game.

Honestly, the more I write about and study the nature of efficiency vs. explosiveness, I think this is the best approach to take. But it does require you to succeed in a good percentage of the risks you take.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	84.9	3.06	3.74	40.7%	75.0%	19.1%	152.4	6.3%	9.9%
Rank	121	83	105	89	104	69	7	33	23

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Nick Usher	DE	6'3, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7785	13	31.5	5.5%	6.5	3.0	0	0	2	0
Roy Robertson-Harris	DE	6'7, 255	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.7000	13	27.0	4.7%	8.5	3.5	0	3	3	0
Maurice Chavis	DT					13	25.0	4.4%	5.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Gino Bresolin	NT	6'2, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7478	13	19.0	3.3%	2.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Cooper Brock	DE					13	18.5	3.2%	5.0	3.0	0	0	1	0
Silas Firstley	DE	6'1, 265	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	13	13.5	2.4%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Alex Villarreal	DT	6'4, 300	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	12	8.0	1.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Luke Elsner	DE	6'3, 240	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	6	3.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Vince Czerniewski	NT	6'0, 290	Sr.	NR	NR
Devante Richardson	NT	6'2, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	NR
Christian Harper	NT	6'4, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7785
Joseph Kraemer	DE	6'3, 245	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8117
Sky Logan	DL	6'2, 285	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7583
Demarcus Womack	DT	6'3, 335	Jr.	2 stars	0.7500

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Alvin Jones	WLB	5'11, 215	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7300	13	41.5	7.2%	9.0	1.5	1	3	0	0
Anthony Puente	MLB					12	32.5	5.7%	2.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Jimmy Musgrave	MLB	6'0, 240	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7333	13	24.0	4.2%	3.5	2.0	1	0	1	0
Trey Brown	WLB	6'0, 215	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	12	23.5	4.1%	5.0	2.0	1	0	0	0
Matthew Heard	MLB	6'3, 225	Sr.	NR	NR
Cooper Foster	WLB	6'1, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000
Lawrence Montegut	LB	6'1, 220	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893
Justen Tatum	LB	6'1, 240	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859

7. An all-angles pass rush

UTEP had a strong pass rush despite no particularly strong pass rusher. No Miners finished with more than 3.5 sacks, but seven had at least two, and five of those return, as do five of the eight players who had at least three non-sack tackles for loss (including linebacker Alvin Jones, who was a freshman missile).

So it's reasonable to assume that last year's strengths will be this year's strengths. What about last year's weaknesses? UTEP got shoved around by decent run-blocking teams, and that will probably be the case again unless one of two JUCO newcomers -- sophomore Sky Logan or enormous junior Demarcus Womack -- can make an early difference. With five of last year's seven primary linemen and three of four linebackers back*, there's little reason to think weaknesses will be any weaker. They just might not be stronger.

* That's a pretty small rotation. This speaks simultaneously to a) UTEP's improved injury luck (the Miners had been wrecked in 2013), b) the benefits of a slow offensive pace, and c) a potentially perilous lack of depth in the front seven. Perhaps the JUCO linemen and athletic young linebackers like Lawrence Montegut and Justen Tatum can address (c) a bit.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Wesley Miller	WS					13	64.0	11.2%	1.5	0	1	7	0	0
Devin Cockrell	FS	5'11, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	13	44.5	7.8%	7	2	1	2	0	0
Jameel Erving	SS					13	36.0	6.3%	6	1	1	3	0	1
Adrian James	CB					13	33.0	5.8%	2	1	1	6	2	0
Dashone Smith	FS	6'0, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8000	10	26.0	4.5%	2	1	0	1	0	0
Nick Gathrite	CB					13	23.5	4.1%	6	2.5	1	7	2	1
Damian Payne	CB					13	20.0	3.5%	1	0	2	2	1	0
Ishmael Harrison	CB	6'0, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	10	9.5	1.7%	1	0	0	3	0	0
LaQuintus Dowell	SS	5'10, 205	Sr.	NR	NR	13	6.5	1.1%	0	0	0	0	1	1
Traun Roberson	CB	6'0, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7778	12	6.0	1.0%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Kelvin Fisher Jr.	FS	5'11, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8891	10	5.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Da'Carlos Renfro	DB	5'10, 175	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	9	4.5	0.8%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Leon Hayes	SS	5'10, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7698
Nik Needham	CB	5'11, 185	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7867
Adrian Hynson	WS	5'10, 185	RSFr.	2 stars	0.7500
Kalon Beverly	CB	6'1, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8081

8. Turnover in the back

It isn't a coincidence that UTEP's secondary started playing better when the pass rush improved. In the first five games, with no quarterback pressure, opponents completed 55 percent at 17.4 yards per completion with a 2.6 percent interception rate. Last eight games, with a suddenly ferocious pass rush: 50 percent completion rate, 13.4 yards per completion, 3.9 percent interception rate.

If you're a UTEP fan, you're taking heart in the fact that the pass rush should again be strong. That will give leeway to a secondary that will need it. Of the seven DBs to make at least 10 tackles, only two are back, and the five who departed combined for 16.5 tackles for loss, six interceptions, 25 break-ups, and four forced fumbles.

At the least, UTEP isn't going to be starting five freshmen. Junior safeties Devin Cockrell and Dashone Smith are back; Cockrell was great near the line of scrimmage, and Smith was a well-regarded recruit who seems to have strong upside. And there are up to five seniors ready to join them on the two-deep. Corner Ishmael Harrison was a starter in 2013, and Traun Roberson has seen a decent amount of rotation time in his career. It's impossible to say that this unit will be as good as last year's, but it might not be markedly worse.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Jay Mattox	6'0, 185	Jr.	41	41.1	6	6	9	36.6%
Mike Ruggles			23	46.7	0	2	4	26.1%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Jay Mattox	6'0, 185	Jr.	70	62.8	47	2	67.1%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jay Mattox	6'0, 185	Jr.	43-44	12-14	85.7%	1-2	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Autrey Golden	KR	5'11, 180	Sr.	31	24.0	2
Damian Payne	KR			7	13.3	0
Damian Payne	PR			25	5.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	100
Field Goal Efficiency	120
Punt Return Efficiency	109
Kick Return Efficiency	6
Punt Efficiency	108
Kickoff Efficiency	28
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	14

9. Kick it away from Golden

UTEP's special teams unit was a bit all-or-nothing. The punt coverage was bad, and the Miners got almost nothing of note from punt returner Damian Payne, but Jay Mattox was a great kickoffs guy (more than two-thirds of his kicks were touchbacks) and a solid place-kicker inside of 40 yards, and Autrey Golden was one of the nation's best return men.

That Mattox and Golden are both back suggests that special teams improvement is likely, though there's nothing guaranteeing that punt coverage or returns will improve. Between offensive efficiency, defensive play-making, and good kick returns, UTEP will likely have field position to its advantage.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
5-Sep	at Arkansas	9
12-Sep	at Texas Tech	82
19-Sep	at New Mexico State	124
26-Sep	Incarnate Word	NR
3-Oct	UTSA	109
10-Oct	at Florida International	96
24-Oct	Florida Atlantic	100
31-Oct	at Southern Miss	110
7-Nov	Rice	86
14-Nov	at Old Dominion	108
21-Nov	Louisiana Tech	35
28-Nov	at North Texas	125

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-30.5% (119)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	128 / 126
2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	9 / 6.9
2014 TO Luck/Game	+0.8
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (6, 6)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	6.3 (0.7)

10. Life in the West is best

Conference USA spans a large amount of space, both literally and metaphorically. It stretches from El Paso to Norfolk, its best team ranked 17th in F/+ last year, and its worst team ranked 125th.

But the three worst teams (North Texas, Southern Miss, and UTSA) all played in the West division, and three of the four best played in the East. So it was a lot easier to find a slate of winnable games in the western portion, especially when added to a regular non-conference series with New Mexico State.

There's nothing saying that last year's three worst West teams will be as bad -- they probably won't -- but it bears mentioning that UTEP faces a schedule with eight opponents that ranked 96th or worse, thanks in part to drawing FIU, FAU, and ODU from the East. (Granted, only three of the eight come to El Paso.) If the Miners aren't a single iota better, if they pull the same "unable to beat good teams, and unable to lose to bad teams" routine, they'll quite possibly be bowling again.

But some of the opponents that were below them do boast quite upside, from ODU's and FAU's offenses to FIU's defense. If those teams improve, UTEP better. I'm not sure I see that happening, not with a new quarterback, a new receiving corps, a new secondary.

But UTEP will be able to run the ball, rush the passer, and pounce on mistakes. That could be enough.