The big 2015 Middle Tennessee football guide: Expect bowl eligibility again

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1. A mid-major institution

Larry Blakeney's retirement left an opening. Troy's head coach since 1991, Blakeney had long owned the "dean of the mid-majors" title, but with him out of the picture, that title goes to one of two men: either UCF's George O'Leary (hired in 2004) or Middle Tennessee's Rick Stockstill (2006). It's hard to call UCF a mid-major -- the Knights won the Fiesta Bowl and belonged to a BCS conference barely more than a year ago -- so until that sinks in, I'm giving Stockstill the crown.

It's rare for someone to end up a long-serving coach at a school in one of FBS' second-tier conferences. On one hand, it's hard to win at a sustained level, and on another, if you win big, you're probably getting a power-conference job offer. Either you succeed and leave, or you fail and leave.

To end up at the same place for a while, you have to have dark spots on your résumé (Blakeney's involvement in the Eric Ramsey scandal, for instance, or O'Leary's literal résumé issues) or you have to master the art of succeeding, but not succeeding too much.

Stockstill appears to personify the latter. A Florida State quarterback for Bobby Bowden, Stockstill bounced from Bethune-Cookman to pre-FBS UCF before landing on Clemson's staff in 1989. He served various roles under Danny Ford, Ken Hatfield, Tommy West, and Tommy Bowden. He coached for a year under John Thompson at ECU and spent two more at South Carolina before landing the MTSU gig at age 48.

Now 57, Stockstill has found a nice groove. In his first seven seasons, he finished in the Sun Belt top two four times (with one conference co-title), achieved bowl eligibility four times, and won 10 games in 2009. He reportedly spurned the advances of a couple of other mid-major programs to stay in Murfreesboro, and his success helped position MTSU for when Conference USA was getting raided by the Big East and looking for new members.

The Blue Raiders joined C-USA in 2013 and have gone 11-5 in conference and 14-11 overall. They've been bowl eligible twice, though they missed out on a trip at 6-6 last fall. (Almost every bowl-eligible team makes a bowl, but MTSU's been left out twice in the last three years.)

At this point, Stockstill's probably too old to be considered for a power job even if he rips off a series of 10-win seasons, but really, this has turned into a pretty nice arrangement. He's survived and thrived in the wake of an awful 2-10 campaign in 2011, winning 22 games in the next three seasons. Plus, according to the 247Sports Composite, his last two recruiting classes have ranked a solid fifth and eighth in the Conference USA.

The Blue Raiders aren't threatening to become a conference power, but they're winning, and they boast one of the conference's more proven rosters.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-6 | Adj. Record: 3-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 87
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	Savannah State	N/A	61-7	W	77%	17.6	100%
6-Sep	at Minnesota	37	24-35	L	11%	-28.3	1%
13-Sep	Western Kentucky	50	50-47	W	43%	-4.3	38%
20-Sep	at Memphis	41	17-36	L	18%	-21.8	0%
26-Sep	at Old Dominion	108	41-28	W	68%	11.2	93%
4-Oct	Southern Miss	110	37-31	W	45%	-2.8	87%
11-Oct	at Marshall	17	24-49	L	31%	-11.7	1%
18-Oct	UAB	79	34-22	W	82%	21.8	98%
1-Nov	BYU	46	7-27	L	15%	-24.6	1%
15-Nov	at Florida International	96	28-38	L	26%	-15.2	31%
22-Nov	Florida Atlantic	100	35-34	W	38%	-7.2	63%
29-Nov	at UTEP	90	21-24	L	44%	-3.4	53%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	29.2	61	33.5	98
Points Per Game	31.6	49	31.5	96

2. Symmetry!

Beyond money, there is really little reward for playing too tough a non-conference schedule. (But hey, money's probably enough.) MTSU took on an incredibly challenging slate, visiting Minnesota and Memphis and welcoming BYU. Granted, thanks to Minnesota's and Memphis' rises, that schedule ended up a lot more difficult than it seemed it would be when the games were scheduled. Still, those opponents ranked in the F/+ top 50, and all three beat MTSU relatively comfortably.

The Blue Raiders went 6-3 against everybody else and 5-3 in Conference USA, but the losses knocked them down the bowl totem pole, and they were home for Christmas.

There are volatile teams, and there are teams designed to punch in a certain weight class. Like UTEP, MTSU belonged in the latter camp. The Blue Raiders played poorly in losses to good teams but looked great in taking down the lesser teams on the slate.

• Average Percentile Performance (vs. F/+ No. 1-49): 19% (record: 0-4 | avg. score: Opp 37, MTSU 18)
• Average Percentile Performance (vs. F/+ No. 50-99): 49% (record: 2-2 | avg. score: MTSU 33, Opp 33)
• Average Percentile Performance (vs. F/+ No. 100+): 57% (record: 4-0 | avg. score: MTSU 44, Opp 25)

As long as your schedule isn't too top-heavy, playing your best games against your worst opponents is a good way to finish .500 or better while pulling off no particularly memorable victories. But while this is symmetrical, one other thing cost MTSU a bowl bid: shoddy November performances.

Even against three iffy teams to finish the season (FIU, FAU, UTEP), the Blue Raiders went 1-2 with one narrow win and two narrow losses. Knock off UTEP instead of losing a tossup, and you're probably bowling. But the defense suffered letdowns, allowing 5.8 yards per play to a one-dimensional UTEP offense, 5.9 to a no-dimensional FIU offense, and 7.1 to efficient FAU.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.87	49	IsoPPP+	101.6	65
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.7%	38	Succ. Rt. +	102.2	60
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	31.6	102	Def. FP+	98.0	92
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.5	61	Redzone S&P+	101.9	61
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.2		ACTUAL	24	+6.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	46	58	54	65
RUSHING	32	51	48	52
PASSING	76	67	67	67
Standard Downs		73	63	80
Passing Downs		36	51	29

Q1 Rk	37	1st Down Rk	53
Q2 Rk	66	2nd Down Rk	86
Q3 Rk	79	3rd Down Rk	43
Q4 Rk	46

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Austin Grammer	6'2, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8025	221	338	2557	17	12	65.4%	26	7.1%	6.6
Brent Stockstill	6'0, 199	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8105	2	3	41	0	1	66.7%	0	0.0%	13.7
A.J. Erdely					0	1	0	0	0	0.0%	0	0.0%	0.0
John Urzua	6'3, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859

3. Just cut down on the picks, Austin

On paper, Austin Grammer seems like the perfect quarterback for the system Stockstill and offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner want to run. The Blue Raiders attempt balance with a slight lean toward the run game, and Grammer is both mobile enough to add another dimension to the backfield (6.3 yards per non-sack carry) and efficient enough to spread defenses from side to side and prevent them from ganging up on the run.

Plus, he's got some play-maker genes -- he's able to produce nice bailout plays on passing downs. MTSU had a top-75 offense on standard downs and a top-40 offense on passing downs.

That Grammer was able to produce these efficiency numbers in his first year as a starter speaks well about where this offense could be headed. But it's obvious where he needs to improve: the brain farts were devastating. Not only did he throw 12 interceptions, take 26 sacks, and fumble five times, he did so at awful times. Five of his interceptions came in the fourth quarter, and seven came inside his own 40. Granted, there's no good place to throw a pick, but most of his were basically guaranteed to set up scoring opportunities for his opponents. He threw three interceptions in an otherwise winnable game at Minnesota, and he threw three more against FIU in a 10-point loss to what was on paper a lesser team.

You take the good with the bad, but hope experience generates fewer bad moments over the next couple of seasons. And if the bad moments don't cease, then backup and coach's son Brent Stockstill is waiting in the wings.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Jordan Parker	RB	6'1, 222	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893	128	546	2	4.3	4.2	31.3%	2	1
Reggie Whatley	RB					113	767	7	6.8	8.4	42.5%	3	2
Austin Grammer	QB	6'2, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8025	98	614	6	6.3	5.5	46.9%	5	2
Shane Tucker	RB	6'0, 217	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8167	98	486	8	5.0	3.0	43.9%	3	1
Jeremiah Bryson	RB	5'8, 191	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8287	42	221	6	5.3	4.2	42.9%	1	1
Tony Rowland	RB					8	63	1	7.9	5.1	62.5%	0	0
A.J. Erdely	QB					7	29	1	4.1	3.5	14.3%	0	0
Kamani Thomas	RB	5'9, 200	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8494
J'Vonte Herrod	RB	5'11, 215	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8348
Ruben Garnett	RB	5'9, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8503

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Ed'Marques Batties	WR-X	6'0, 197	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8056	62	45	474	72.6%	19.3%	62.9%	7.6	-58	7.5	61.2
Marcus Henry	WR-H					57	40	527	70.2%	17.8%	57.9%	9.2	51	9.3	68.1
Devin Clarke	WR-Z					37	25	358	67.6%	11.5%	48.6%	9.7	59	9.4	46.2
Shane Tucker	RB	6'0, 217	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8167	35	25	351	71.4%	10.9%	54.3%	10.0	55	10.1	45.3
Terry Pettis	WR-Y	6'5, 232	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	27	15	241	55.6%	8.4%	55.6%	8.9	54	8.9	31.1
Demetrius Frazier	WR-H	5'10, 212	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.7800	19	15	165	78.9%	5.9%	78.9%	8.7	-10	10.1	21.3
Christian Collis	WR-Y	6'0, 217	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	18	13	79	72.2%	5.6%	66.7%	4.4	-75	4.5	10.2
Shannon Smith	WR-Z					16	9	73	56.3%	5.0%	50.0%	4.6	-39	4.6	9.4
Jordan Parker	RB	6'1, 222	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893	14	11	112	78.6%	4.4%	42.9%	8.0	-16	8.8	14.5
Chris Perkins	WR-X					12	7	106	58.3%	3.7%	50.0%	8.8	20	9.7	13.7
Jeremiah Bryson	RB	5'8, 191	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8287	12	11	64	91.7%	3.7%	83.3%	5.3	-61	4.3	8.3
Tyler Barron	TE	6'4, 234	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7806	7	4	50	57.1%	2.2%	57.1%	7.1	1	7.2	6.5
Jevontey Smith	WR	6'2, 205	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8091
Ty Clemons	WR	5'11, 179	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8256
Richie James	WR	5'9, 170	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8200
Max Linder	TE	6'3, 242	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7806
Rod Ducksworth	WR	6'0, 175	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7800
Isiah Upton	WR	6'0, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8000
Terell West	WR	5'10, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8289

4. No shortage of options

Grammer will find plenty of likable pieces. Three of last year's top four running backs return, and since all three are steady but unspectacular, there might be a place in the rotation for a three-star youngster, be it sophomore Kamani Thomas, redshirt freshman J'Vonte Herrod, or incoming freshman Ruben Garnett, damn near relatively a blue-chipper.

There's a bit more to replace in the receiving corps, where efficiency target Ed'Marques Batties returns but bigger-play threats Marcus Henry and Devin Clarke do not. Terry Pettis and Demetrius Frazier averaged almost nine yards per target as sophomores, however, which is exciting.

And between two three-star (according to 247) redshirt freshmen, two three-star freshmen, and JUCO transfer Rod Ducksworth, odds are good that at least one solid option will emerge. It's still possible that the explosiveness numbers go down, especially considering how large a role Pettis and Frazier played on passing downs.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	104.9	3.18	4.1	40.5%	67.3%	17.0%	76.2	6.4%	9.9%
Rank	50	32	7	50	64	34	111	96	102

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Darius Johnson	LT	6'3, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8000	37	2014 2nd All-CUSA
Isaiah Anderson	RT					37	2014 2nd All-CUSA
Josh Chester	C	6'3, 305	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	15
Daniel Stephens	RG	6'2, 303	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7433	12
Adam Stickel	RG	6'5, 312	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	6
David Adams	LG	6'3, 297	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7519	4
Jaylen Hunter	LG	6'4, 296	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8093	3
Jonah Sells	C					2
Patrick Hughes	C					1
Hunter Rogers	RT	6'7, 330	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	0
Maurquice Shakir	OL	6'3, 318	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7444	0
Conner Trent	LT	6'5, 316	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7433	0
Carlos Johnson	OL	6'3, 303	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8026
Josh Fannin	OL	6'3, 310	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8226
Chandler Brewer	OL	6'6, 310	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8057
Deandre Ford	OL	6'6, 340	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793

5. Good at what you need to be good at

The line was a concern for MTSU heading into 2014; the Blue Raiders had to replace all-conference guard Josh Walker and three others with starting experience, but the rearranged line produced two all-conference bookends at tackle, and while there was plenty of shuffling on the interior (mostly among four sophomores), the line held up.

MTSU kept defenders out of the backfield on the rush and created opportunities for its backs. The sack numbers were pretty awful, but a lot of that probably had to do with Grammer's play-maker tendencies.

And now MTSU gets to reap the benefits of experience. Three-year starting left tackle Darius Johnson is back (though he could apparently move to guard), as are five others who had racked up 40 career starts by the end of 2014. Stockstill has signed some big prospects over the last couple of classes, but they probably won't be needed just yet. There are lots of juniors and seniors atop the depth chart.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.84	56	IsoPPP+	95.9	83
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.4%	106	Succ. Rt. +	93.0	98
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.0	44	Off. FP+	100.0	65
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.4	72	Redzone S&P+	88.5	109
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.3		ACTUAL	20.0	-2.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	108	90	100	83
RUSHING	82	95	111	78
PASSING	114	85	68	90
Standard Downs		66	83	53
Passing Downs		113	113	115

Q1 Rk	65	1st Down Rk	105
Q2 Rk	76	2nd Down Rk	71
Q3 Rk	84	3rd Down Rk	68
Q4 Rk	125

6. Always be closing (drives, games)

MTSU's defense was not without its strengths. The Blue Raiders were efficient against the pass, boasted a solid pass rush, and did reasonably well in short-yardage situations. They played at a top-75 level in the first half, too.

But as with Grammer's picks, the defense's breakdowns came at all the wrong times. Despite playing a ton of players -- nine linemen, nine linebackers, and six defensive backs had at least 10 tackles each -- and suffering few key injuries, the defense got worse in each progressive quarter, starting at No. 65 in first-quarter S&P+ and finishing 125th in the fourth. And while the standard downs defense was alright, MTSU ranked 113th in Passing Downs S&P+ and 109th in Redzone S&P+. They couldn't close drives or games. And considering the defensive output in November, they couldn't close the season either.

That they went 3-1 in one-possession games is actually rather surprising, though these breakdowns caused close games to become less close. MTSU was outscored by seven points in the second half against Memphis, by 20 points against Memphis, and by 14 against FIU.

Ten of last year's top 11 linemen, seven of nine linebackers, and four of five defensive backs all return to a defense that will likely boast a large number of senior starters. That probably spells improvement, but it doesn't automatically mean the Blue Raiders will hold up better late in games.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	92.3	3.23	3.56	43.2%	68.0%	14.6%	99.8	4.9%	7.2%
Rank	97	108	86	114	69	120	66	57	68

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Shubert Bastien	DE					12	31.5	4.2%	10.0	5.5	0	1	1	0
Shaquille Huff	DT	6'1, 320	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8267	12	23.5	3.2%	5.0	2.0	0	1	1	0
Jimal McBride	DT	6'2, 325	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8151	12	21.0	2.8%	4.5	2.5	0	1	0	0
Steven Rhodes	DE	6'3, 256	Jr.	NR	NR	12	19.5	2.6%	3.0	2.0	0	0	1	0
Raynard Felton	DT	6'4, 286	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8054	12	13.0	1.7%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Alexandro Antoine	DE	6'1, 241	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	9	11.5	1.5%	1.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Patrick McNeil	DT	6'1, 320	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7889	11	11.5	1.5%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Jahmal Jones	DE	6'3, 238	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	12	11.0	1.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Chris Hale	DE	6'4, 274	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7578	10	10.0	1.3%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Derious Bennett	DT	6'1, 315	Jr.	NR	0.7700	10	5.5	0.7%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ykeem Wells	DE	6'0, 258	Sr.	2 stars ()	0.7000	7	4.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
O'Shae Bridges	DT					11	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ismael Aurismond	DE	6'3, 241	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7988
Todney Evans	DE	6'3, 228	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7944
Darrius Liggins	DE	6'4, 234	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8154
Peter Bailey	DE	6'4, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7994
Malik Manciel	DT	6'3, 265	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7933
Trae Philpots	DE	6'4, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7400

7. Packing on the pounds

Most of MTSU's defensive strengths were related to pass defense; the run defense was pretty awful. Looking at this year's listed weights, we might conclude that MTSU thought a lack of beef was an issue. Shaquille Huff was listed at 294 points a year ago and is now listed at 320. Jimal McBride went from 281 to 325! Steven Rhodes went from 240 to 256, Raynard Felton from 275 to 286, Derious Bennett from 305 to 315, Chris Hale from 253 to 274.

Adding weight doesn't solve a problem -- it has to be good weight, otherwise you solve a size problem and create a quickness problem and perhaps a different kind of conditioning issue. But if Huff and McBride in particular put on good weight and retained a little bit of play-making ability (they combined for 9.5 TFLs and 4.5 sacks in 2014), making them unmovable boulders (645 combined pounds!) could pay off.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
T.T. Barber	WLB	6'1, 229	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	12	61.0	8.2%	7.5	1.0	2	1	2	0
Christian Henry	MLB					12	57.0	7.6%	0.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Cavellis Luckett	MLB	6'0, 254	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593	12	52.0	7.0%	3.0	2.0	0	4	1	0
Trey Wafford	SLB	5'10, 202	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7667	12	45.5	6.1%	1.0	0.0	0	2	0	1
Quay Watt	WLB	6'0, 214	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	12	30.0	4.0%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
James Roberson	LB	6'0, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	12	20.0	2.7%	2.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
D.J. Sanders	SLB	6'0, 209	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956	12	13.0	1.7%	0.0	0.0	1	1	0	0
Leighton Gasque	LB					12	12.0	1.6%	6.0	6.0	0	3	2	0
Anfornee Stewart	LB	6'1, 211	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	4	12.0	1.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Myles Harges	LB	6'2, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7874

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Xavier Walker	FS	6'4, 212	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333	12	58.0	7.8%	1	0	1	4	1	0
Kevin Byard	SS	5'11, 226	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	12	54.5	7.3%	3	0	6	4	2	0
Jared Singletary	CB	5'8, 173	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8000	12	46.5	6.2%	2	0	2	6	1	0
Khari Burke	CB					10	34.0	4.6%	1	0	0	10	0	0
Chris Brown	FS	6'1, 188	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8126	12	21.0	2.8%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Shon Akins	CB					11	14.5	1.9%	0	0	1	3	0	0
John Kelly	CB					12	8.0	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jordan Frost-Dixon	CB	5'11, 205	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7519	12	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jamarcus Howard	CB	6'0, 185	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8263	8	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Chris Sharpe	CB					5	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Darryl Randolph	CB	5'11, 183	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8044	2	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Patrick Martin	S					1	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Michael Minter	CB	6'0, 182	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8033
Richie Bisaccia	S	6'0, 193	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000
Dontavious Heard	CB	6'1, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8017
Nick Beasley	S	6'0, 205	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7806
Vernon Walker	S	6'0, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8074
Khalil Brooks	CB	5'11, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859

8. No lack of senior leaders

The two-deep will likely boast five seniors at linebacker and up to five in the secondary. Considering the pass defense was indeed a strength, and considering that list of seniors includes some serious play-makers in linebacker T.T. Barber and strong safety Kevy Byard (combined: 10.5 tackles for loss, eight picks, five break-ups, four forced fumbles), this can only be considered a good thing, at least for 2015. (2016, not so much.)

If the pass defense holds steady as I assume it will, and the extra girth up front helps in defending the run, then this defense is set to improve. And considering the offense probably won't regress, this speaks very well.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Zachary Lopez			34	39.6	2	11	6	50.0%
Sean O'Kane			22	40.9	3	5	7	54.5%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Cody Clark	6'1, 178	Jr.	67	57.0	7	3	10.4%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Cody Clark	6'1, 178	Jr.	46-46	7-9	77.8%	2-6	33.3%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Reggie Whatley	KR			27	25.6	0
Ed'Marques Batties	KR	6'0, 195	Sr.	4	23.8	0
Ed'Marques Batties	PR	6'0, 195	Sr.	15	8.6	1
Jared Singletary	PR	5'8, 171	Sr.	2	5.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	56
Field Goal Efficiency	109
Punt Return Efficiency	5
Kick Return Efficiency	39
Punt Efficiency	74
Kickoff Efficiency	102
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	47

9. Don't kick to Batties

Ed'Marques Batties wasn't a particularly explosive receiver in 2014, but he was one of Conference USA's more dangerous return men, and he should take over the full-time kick return duties from Reggie Whatley this year as well. Returns propped up an otherwise shaky special teams unit in 2014 and could do the same this year.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rk
5-Sep	Jackson State	NR
12-Sep	at Alabama	2
19-Sep	Charlotte	NR
26-Sep	at Illinois	78
3-Oct	Vanderbilt	115
10-Oct	at Western Kentucky	50
17-Oct	Florida International	96
24-Oct	at Louisiana Tech	35
7-Nov	Marshall	17
14-Nov	at Florida Atlantic	100
21-Nov	North Texas	125
28-Nov	at UTSA	109

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-26.1% (108)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	94 / 99
2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-4 / 5.1
2014 TO Luck/Game	-3.8
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	16 (8, 8)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	5.7 (0.3)

10. Win at home

Two years ago, the now-54-year-old Stockstill was a hot name in the coaching world, reportedly spurning advances from East Carolina and Memphis to remain at Middle Tennessee. Now, he looks like the football version of Southern Illinois basketball coach Chris Lowery, a case study in striking while the iron is hot or risking an extraordinary cooling process.

Can the Blue Raiders recover from this rather stunning, precipitous fall?

I wrote that almost three years ago in my 2012 MTSU preview. The Blue Raiders recovered, and quickly, winning six games in 2012, moving to Conference USA, and winning 14 games in two years.

Some leave Murfreesboro full of wonder; Stockstill doesn't leave. Recruiting is stable, the coaching staff is pretty stable, and Middle Tennessee has rediscovered a rhythm despite missing bowls in two of the last three bowl-eligible seasons.

Despite the presence of Alabama in Week 2, the schedule eases up. If MTSU is decent against all teams outside of the top 50, the Blue Raiders should have opportunities for road wins against FAU, UTSA, and perhaps Illinois, and they could just about sweep at home, welcoming Jackson State, Charlotte, Vanderbilt, FIU, and North Texas, not to mention a depleted (but probably still dangerous) Marshall. That offers more than enough opportunities to not only reach bowl eligibility but clear the bar by a couple of games.

And if Marshall slips while replacing key pieces, MTSU or WKU could become the new C-USA East favorite. I figure WKU is first in line, but MTSU's got the experience to do some damage.