The big 2015 Akron football guide: Bowden's Zips ready for a fourth-year breakthrough

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1. "One year away," one year later

There are some high-impact seniors here, from Jawon Chisholm on offense to a good chunk of the secondary. But whatever Akron accomplishes in 2014, a hefty core of potential difference-makers will return in 2015. [...]

[T]he most likely scenario is probably another year with five or six wins, followed by a breakthrough in 2015. But Akron fans have been waiting a while; waiting one more year might not be the end of the world. This program has momentum for the first time in nearly a decade. That's good enough for now.

Midway through the 2014 season, it looked as if Terry Bowden and his Akron Zips were going to prove me wrong. Despite blowout losses to Penn State and Marshall, they had upset Pitt and taken down EMU and Miami (Ohio) by a combined 35 points to move to 4-2. The Zips needed two more wins to secure bowl eligibility for the first time since their surprise MAC title run of 2005.

They only got one win, however. Tight, frustrating road losses to Ohio and Kent State and a blowout home loss to BGSU meant the Zips finished 5-7. After winning just three games between 2010-12, a five-win season is not yet something to scoff at, but the way it all unfolded was disappointing.

Still, the timetable didn't change. After consecutive years of improvement, Akron solidified its gains in 2014, and now the Zips have enough potential and experience to take the aforementioned step forward in 2015. There are plenty of questions still to answer -- the leading rusher and top two receiving targets are gone, as are the top two defensive ends and seemingly every safety -- but the upside is there.

2. Terry's island of misfit toys

Perhaps it speaks to the depths into which Akron had fallen. Terry Bowden came to town in 2012 after spending a decade as an analyst and three years at North Alabama.

The former Auburn head coach Bowden set out to rebuild the Akron program like it was an SEC squad. First, he hired assistants with plenty of power-conference experience: defensive coordinator Chuck Amato and special teams coordinator Jeff Bowden were both mainstays on his father Bobby's staff, and defensive line coach Todd Stroud was an Amato assistant at N.C. State. (Bowden just snatched up former Michigan offensive line coach Darrell Funk, as well.)

Bowden also established a "locals and south Florida kids" approach to recruiting that echoed what Charlie Strong successfully attempted at Louisville. Smaller recruiting budget and lesser facilities? No matter! Akron's 2014 roster featured 20 players from Florida.

Most notably, however, Bowden also searched the transfer market for immediate talent upgrades. Akron brought in defensive tackle Se'Von Pittman and offensive lineman Tommy Brown from Ohio State, defensive end Nordly Capi from Colorado State, and offensive lineman Joe McNamara from Wisconsin. The Zips' two-deep featured quite a few former three- or four-star players last year, more than most MAC teams.

Bowden has treated the Akron job like a major position, and he's still only won 11 games in three years. That tells you at least a little bit about what he inherited.

Another batch of reinforcements will be donning the blue and gold this year. Former four-star Pitt signee Tra'Von Chapman joins the mix at quarterback. Former Colorado State running back Donnell Alexander is the leading challenger to replace leading rusher Jawon Chisholm. Former Ohio State defensive end Jamal Marcus and Iowa State nose guard Rodney Coe will supplement what might be the MAC's most high-upside defensive line. Former Miami defensive back Larry Hope will fight for playing time in a redesigned secondary. And Washington State graduate transfer Darryl Monroe should make an immediate impact at linebacker.

Continuity can be a weapon in and of itself, and transfers are rarely around long enough to bring much continuity to the table. But talent and potential also matter, and there's a chance that all six of these players end up starting in 2015. Adding them to a lineup that already features Brown, Pittman, and former three-star signees like linebacker Jatavis Brown, safety Jerome Lane, and receiver Mykel Traylor-Bennett might give Akron as much pure athleticism as any team in the MAC. Now we'll have to see how much production this staff can wring from the potential.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 105
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
28-Aug	Howard	N/A	41-0	W	86%	25.1	100%
6-Sep	at Penn State	45	3-21	L	4%	-40.8	0%
20-Sep	Marshall	17	17-48	L	8%	-32.2	0%
27-Sep	at Pittsburgh	43	21-10	W	73%	14.1	92%
4-Oct	Eastern Michigan	128	31-6	W	69%	11.7	100%
11-Oct	Miami (Ohio)	103	29-19	W	36%	-8.6	77%
18-Oct	at Ohio	106	20-23	L	17%	-22.5	28%
25-Oct	at Ball State	91	21-35	L	13%	-26.7	11%
4-Nov	Bowling Green	98	10-37	L	12%	-27.0	13%
11-Nov	at Buffalo	114	24-55	L	2%	-48.4	0%
18-Nov	Massachusetts	120	30-6	W	63%	7.9	97%
28-Nov	at Kent State	107	24-27	L	15%	-24.4	27%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	19.0	119	29.8	75
Points Per Game	22.6	104	23.9	32

3. A standout performance every week

Akron didn't leave much room for doubt in 2014. The Zips played at a level above the 60th percentil or below the 15th percentile in 10 of 12 games, looking fantastic in wins over Pitt, UMass, Howard, and Miami while playing simply awful ball against Penn State, Marshall, Ball State, BGSU, Buffalo, and Kent State. Since three of the four best performances came in the first half of the season, you can certainly spot an early-vs.-late trend if you squint -- Akron's average percentile performance was 46 percent in the first half of the season and 20 percent in the second half -- but I'm not sure if there was a trend there or simple, random rolls of the dice.

• Average percentile performance (5 wins): 65%
• Average percentile performance (7 losses): 10%

Quarterback Kyle Pohl battled injuries midseason, but that alone doesn't explain Akron's offensive ups and downs. The Zips averaged more yards per play against Penn State (fifth in Def. S&P+) than Buffalo (113th), and more against Ohio (71st) than Ball State (107th).

Meanwhile, a defense that boasted decent continuity and injuries luck -- the top six linemen, four of the top five linebackers, and the top four defensive backs played in all 12 games -- had some strange results of its own: 4.7 yards per play allowed against Pitt (15th in Off. S&P+) but 6.3 against Penn State (103rd), 4.6 yards per play allowed against UMass (82nd), 6.0 against Kent State (116th) and 7.0 against Buffalo (94th). Akron played like a younger, less stable team than it should have. We'll see if that changes in 2015.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.75	117	IsoPPP+	79.5	113
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.0%	88	Succ. Rt. +	90.5	107
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.5	39	Def. FP+	101.0	53
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.5	114	Redzone S&P+	84.1	115
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	25.9		ACTUAL	26	+0.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	91	113	110	113
RUSHING	109	103	113	86
PASSING	50	114	96	122
Standard Downs		108	116	106
Passing Downs		113	85	121

Q1 Rk	111	1st Down Rk	105
Q2 Rk	117	2nd Down Rk	106
Q3 Rk	75	3rd Down Rk	85
Q4 Rk	95

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Kyle Pohl	6'3, 217	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	208	383	2189	9	8	54.3%	18	4.5%	5.1
Thomas Woodson	6'1, 233	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8101	76	143	806	5	6	53.1%	6	4.0%	5.2
Chandler Kincade	6'5, 230	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8318
Tra'Von Chapman (Pitt)	6'1, 210	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8931

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Jawon Chisholm	RB					114	620	8	5.4	5.0	42.1%	3	1
Conor Hundley	RB	5'10, 213	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7619	104	540	4	5.2	4.9	37.5%	2	1
Donnell Alexander (Colorado St.)	RB	5'11, 219	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593	71	428	2	6.0	4.4	52.1%	N/A	N/A
Kyle Pohl	QB	6'3, 217	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	28	148	1	5.3	4.4	46.4%	4	3
Thomas Woodson	QB	6'1, 233	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8101	26	157	0	6.0	4.2	57.7%	0	0
Cody Grice	NG	5'11, 284	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	21	44	4	2.1	0.8	14.3%	1	0
D.J. Jones	RB	5'8, 197	Jr.	NR	NR	14	58	0	4.1	8.0	21.4%	0	0
Hakeem Lawrence	RB	5'7, 176	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8062	12	61	0	5.1	2.4	50.0%	2	2
Manny Morgan	RB	5'8, 190	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8156	9	38	1	4.2	2.7	44.4%	0	0

4. This new backfield could be fun

Even back in the 1990s, Terry Bowden (like his father) liked to wing the ball around. In his last good season at Auburn (1997), Bowden's Tigers attempted 31 passes to 28 rushes per game; Dameyune Craig threw for 3,277 yards while the leading rusher (Rusty Williams) had just 277. Bowden's Auburn career began with a 46-12 record while he incorporated modern, pro-style, pass-friendly offensive features. So perhaps it isn't surprising that he adopted another reasonably modern, pass-friendly approach at Akron.

In 2014, Akron was aggressive with the pass on standard downs but relatively conservative on passing downs. The Zips didn't have the personnel to go all-in with the pass, but they still preferred it (especially when Pohl was healthy), and it occasionally worked, at least against bad defenses.

At season's end, Pohl and Tommy Woodson had combined to attempt more than 45 passes per game, slinging to eight different targets at least twice per game and producing six receivers with at least 225 receiving yards. Running back Jawon Chisholm had his moments in the sun (17 carries for 102 yards against Miami, 19 for 184 against Kent State), but Akron wanted to pass.

The offensive identity under coordinator A.J. Milwee could be exactly the same in 2015, or it could change drastically. It will depend on newcomers.

Pohl and Woodson both return, but between redshirt freshman Chandler Kincade (perhaps the most highly-touted freshman signee of the Bowden era) and Pitt transfer Tra'Von Chapman, the battle for the starting quarterback position could be exciting. Chapman's dual-threat ability brings a different variable to the table, and Kincade's statuesque physique and big arm could make Akron even more pass-happy.

Meanwhile, Donnell Alexander could bring stability and efficiency to a run game that needs plenty of both. In two years at CSU, Alexander was a grinder; he emerged to average 21 carries and 106 yards per game over the last four weeks of his freshman season, then provided a nice change of pace for Kapri Bibbs in 2013. He didn't show a wealth of explosiveness, but more than 50 percent of his 2013 carries gained at least five yards. In theory, a running game that features Alexander, big Conor Hundley, a jitterbug (and former three-star recruit) like Hakeem Lawrence or Manny Morgan and nose tackle/fullback Cody Grice in short-yardage situations could be punishing and effective. It could also be worthy of more focus.

So Akron could start any of four quarterbacks and end up either more pass-happy or run-reliant. I'm bringing some serious specifics to the table right now.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Zach D'Orazio	WR-Y					105	62	658	59.0%	20.8%	67.6%	6.3	-104	6.4	64.6
L.T. Smith III	WR-Z					82	46	502	56.1%	16.2%	64.6%	6.1	-69	6.1	49.2
Andrew Pratt	WR-X	6'5, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	52	27	324	51.9%	10.3%	67.3%	6.2	-17	5.7	31.8
Fransohn Bickley	WR-H	5'6, 147	Jr.	NR	NR	48	30	268	62.5%	9.5%	64.6%	5.6	-97	5.5	26.3
Mykel Traylor-Bennett	WR-X	6'3, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8011	41	17	256	41.5%	8.1%	68.3%	6.2	29	6.2	25.1
Tyler Williams	WR-H					41	22	228	53.7%	8.1%	58.5%	5.6	-48	5.5	22.4
Imani Davis	WR-Y	5'9, 176	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7556	34	22	191	64.7%	6.7%	76.5%	5.6	-75	5.6	18.7
Keith Sconiers	WR-Z					26	16	169	61.5%	5.1%	69.2%	6.5	-26	6.9	16.6
Conor Hundley	RB	5'10, 213	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7619	19	9	55	47.4%	3.8%	52.6%	2.9	-61	2.9	5.4
Jawon Chisholm	RB					12	8	77	66.7%	2.4%	41.7%	6.4	-19	5.4	7.6
Anthony Ritossa	TE					9	6	61	66.7%	1.8%	100.0%	6.8	-11	N/A	6.0
Jatavis Brown	LB	5'11, 217	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8100	6	3	34	50.0%	1.2%	66.7%	5.7	-4	6.8	3.3
Josh Smith	WR	6'1, 195	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	6	3	19	50.0%	1.2%	66.7%	3.2	-19	2.7	1.9
Austin Wolf	WR-Z	6'3, 200	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7881	5	4	84	80.0%	1.0%	0.0%	16.8	37	N/A	8.2
Nick Bice	WR	5'8, 153	Sr.	NR	NR	4	3	23	75.0%	0.8%	0.0%	5.8	-12	N/A	2.3
Michael Means, Jr.	WR	6'2, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7100
Richie Cooper	WR	5'10, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7966
Ray Ray Smith	WR	5'9, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7856

5. Wanted: big plays

As mentioned, Alexander wasn't exactly a big-play back at CSU. He's probably not going to fix what was a pretty significant problem for Akron in 2014: the Zips passed a lot but ranked just 122nd in Passing IsoPPP+ (which measures the magnitude of a team's successful plays). You can get away with a low completion rate (54 percent for Pohl, 53 for Woodson) if you're throwing vertical passes, but Akron wasn't. The two QBs combined to average just 10.5 yards per completion.

It is perhaps encouraging that Akron's two most explosive receivers in 2014 (Andrew Pratt and Mykel Traylor-Bennett, who combined to average 13.2 yards per catch, albeit with a 47 percent catch rate) return. If Akron's run game is more of a threat, then incorporating a little bit of play-action could get either or both of these guys open deep. Still, it's hard to get too excited when your two most explosive returnees combined to average just 6.2 yards per target.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	97.1	2.71	3.66	39.8%	69.0%	21.7%	99.7	3.2%	6.8%
Rank	88	97	30	58	49	101	70	26	51

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Travis Switzer	C					39
Dylan Brumbaugh	LG	6'5, 309	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	23
Isaiah Williams	LT	6'3, 295	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	11
Tommy Brown	RG	6'4, 310	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8560	10
Quaison Osborne	LT	6'3, 295	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7783	10
Joe McNamara	RG					9
Cedric Brittnum	RT					8
Michael Casimos	LG	6'2, 302	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	0
Stephen Ericksen	C	6'3, 305	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7300	0
Andrew Bohan	RG	6'3, 268	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	0
Scott Boyett	RT	6'7, 308	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7700	0
Montel Jordan	OL	6'2, 310	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7856
Rich Kallay	OL	6'5, 290	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7683

6. Two starters gone, four returning

It took Akron quite a while to settle on a lineup in the trenches. The Zips experimented with four different starting lines in the first seven games before settling on an Isaiah Williams-Dylan Brumbaugh-Travis Switzer-Tommy Brown-Cedric Brittnum combination for the final five contests. Switzer and Brittnum are gone, as is part-timer Joe McNamara, but four players with at least 10 starts do return, and all are seniors. That'll do. Akron's line was glitchy last year, allowing defenders into the backfield on rushes and on passing downs, but they were solid in short-yardage (as was Cody Grice as the short-yardage back), and they created a decent number of downfield opportunities.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.82	48	IsoPPP+	94.0	88
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.7%	46	Succ. Rt. +	97.8	77
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.8	17	Off. FP+	103.0	30
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.2	48	Redzone S&P+	101.8	55
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.3		ACTUAL	24.0	+0.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	45	85	84	88
RUSHING	43	66	71	62
PASSING	54	104	94	106
Standard Downs		85	75	88
Passing Downs		89	90	86

Q1 Rk	73	1st Down Rk	59
Q2 Rk	66	2nd Down Rk	90
Q3 Rk	75	3rd Down Rk	15
Q4 Rk	56

7. Don't let them pin their ears back

Chesty Chuck Amato wants swagger and aggressiveness from his defense. His Zip attack the run on standard downs and attack the passer on passing downs, and Akron's defensive stats show some of the fruits of that aggression: Akron was 10th in the country in Stuff Rate (run stops at or behind the line), 25th in Power Success Rate, and 26th in Passing Downs Sack Rate. They wanted to leverage you into predictability, then attack your predictable option.

It shouldn't surprise, then, that opponents tried to stay less predictable. Opponents threw six percent more frequently than the national average on standard downs and rushed five percent more than normal on passing downs. Akron's defense ended up a little bit too predictable in its own right and got caught flat-footed quite a bit.

Still, Amato's effect (along with that of the transfers) has been noticeable. Akron ranked 112th in Def. S&P+ in Rob Ianello's last year in charge and ranked 113th in Bowden's first year. But in 2013 and 2014, the Zips ranked 74th and 75th, respectively. If they can offset turnover in the secondary with an effective front seven, they should produce a similar ranking again this fall.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	102.9	2.51	3.78	40.0%	60.0%	24.7%	104.8	3.9%	9.7%
Rank	50	16	112	81	25	10	59	88	26

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Nordly Capi	DE					12	32.5	4.9%	10.5	5.0	0	3	0	0
Nmesoma Okafor	DE					12	30.5	4.6%	7.0	4.5	0	0	2	0
Rodney Coe (Iowa State)	NG	6'3, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8604	12	29.0	4.1%	5.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Se'Von Pittman	DT	6'3, 268	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9565	12	26.5	4.0%	6.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Cody Grice	NG	5'11, 284	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	12	24.5	3.7%	4.0	2.5	0	2	1	0
Keontae Hollis	DT					12	14.5	2.2%	3.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jamal Marcus (Ohio State)	DE	6'2, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8962	13	17.0	2.2%	2.0	2.0	0	2	1	0
Alfonso Horner	DE	6'3, 217	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	11	11.0	1.7%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Darius Copeland	NG	6'1, 257	Jr.	NR	NR	9	7.5	1.1%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Richard Dorvilus	DE	6'1, 235	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8235	8	3.5	0.5%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jatavis Brown	WILL	5'11, 217	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8100	12	81.5	12.3%	14.5	4.0	0	1	3	0
Justin March	SAM					11	55.5	8.4%	6.0	2.0	0	8	2	0
Darryl Monroe (Washington St.)	LB	6'1, 235	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8156	12	54.5	8.0%	4.0	1.5	0	1	0	0
C.J. Mizell	MIKE					12	51.0	7.7%	6.0	0.0	0	2	1	1
Dylan Evans	SAM	6'2, 211	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	12	29.0	4.4%	3.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Jon Shelby	WILL					12	24.0	3.6%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
John Rachal	MIKE	5'11, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	9	9.0	1.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Nick Rossi	LB					12	5.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Newman Williams	LB	6'2, 240	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7856
Ulysses Gilbert III	LB	6'1, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8041

8. It's hard not to be excited about the front seven

Akron must replace its two top defensive ends, a decent backup tackle and two-thirds of last year's starting linebacking corps. When you're a MAC program, your depth might not be where it needs to be to absorb such losses without regression.

But it's hard to worry too much about Akron in this regard -- not with this load of transfers coming in. Jamal Marcus should be able to offset the loss of either Nordly Capi or Nmesoma Okafor, Rodney Coe should provide an upgrade for Deontae Hollis, and Darryl Monroe should be an instant contributor. Add to that the return of players like Jatavis Brown, Se'Von Pittman, and Cody Grice, and you've got a deep, athletic front seven, likely one of the best in the conference. Amato should again have plenty of athleticism at his disposal, and he should again attempt to utilize it aggressively.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kris Givens	CB	5'9, 163	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333	12	35.0	5.3%	0.5	0	2	4	0	0
Devonte Morgan	FS					12	33.0	5.0%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Martel Durant	ROV					12	32.5	4.9%	0	0	3	5	0	0
Johnny Robinson	FS					12	32.0	4.8%	0	0	1	3	0	0
Bre' Ford	ROV					11	28.0	4.2%	0	0	2	0	1	0
DeAndre Scott	CB	5'11, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7100	11	25.0	3.8%	0	0	2	10	1	0
Bryce Cheek	CB	6'0, 191	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	12	19.0	2.9%	1	0	0	2	1	0
John Senter	CB	5'7, 163	Sr.	NR	NR	12	15.5	2.3%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Jerome Lane	FS	6'3, 212	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8314	12	12.5	1.9%	5	5	0	0	0	0
Drew Phillips	CB					9	3.5	0.5%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Cory Morrow	S	6'0, 204	Jr.	NR	NR	12	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Zach Guiser	ROV	6'1, 205	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7717	12	3.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Larry Hope (Miami)	DB	6'0, 183	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8378	2	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jamal Baggett	S	5'9, 189	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8006
Chris Bivins	DB	5'11, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.7100
Jason Williams	DB	6'3, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7967

9. A black hole at safety

Corners Kris Givens and DeAndre Scott (combined: four picks, 14 break-ups in 2014) return, and JUCO transfer Chris Bivins and seniors Bryce Cheek and John Senter should assure the Zips decent depth at the position. Combined with depth at defensive tackle and linebacker, this should assure that Akron's efficiency numbers are solid and similar to last season's. But in the instances when aggression doesn't pay off, a brand new set of safeties will be tasked with preventing enormous gains.

There are intriguing candidates, sure. Sophomore Jerome Lane was a star recruit (by MAC standards) and as an OLB/nickel back, he had two enormous games last fall (two sacks against Miami, three against BGSU). If he settles in at free safety instead of moving to OLB, he could be a keeper. But Akron will otherwise be counting on either newcomers (sophomore Zach Guiser, redshirt freshman Jamal Baggett, transfer Larry Hope) or converted corners to serve as safety valves. That's scary.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Zach Paul	6'3, 216	Sr.	66	42.5	14	16	24	60.6%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Robert Stein	5'8, 169	Sr.	56	57.4	10	4	17.9%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Robert Stein	5'8, 169	Sr.	27-27	9-10	90.0%	4-6	66.7%
Tom O'Leary	5'11, 175	So.	5-6	0-2	0.0%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
L.T. Smith III	KR			19	22.5	0
Drew Phillips	KR			8	21.3	0
Imani Davis	PR	5'9, 176	Sr.	18	4.2	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	49
Field Goal Efficiency	57
Punt Return Efficiency	76
Kick Return Efficiency	30
Punt Efficiency	62
Kickoff Efficiency	67
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	58

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rk
5-Sep	at Oklahoma	19
12-Sep	Pittsburgh	43
19-Sep	Savannah State	NR
26-Sep	at UL-Lafayette	72
3-Oct	Ohio	106
10-Oct	at Eastern Michigan	128
17-Oct	at Bowling Green	98
31-Oct	Central Michigan	85
7-Nov	at Massachusetts	120
14-Nov	at Miami (Ohio)	103
21-Nov	Buffalo	114
27-Nov	Kent State	107

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-37.4% (121)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	99 / 114
2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-2 / -2.6
2014 TO Luck/Game	+0.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (7, 5)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	5.5 (-0.5)

10. Almost the easiest possible MAC slate

According to F/+, the top five teams in the MAC last year were WMU (56th), Toledo (59th), NIU (69th), CMU (85th), and Ball State (91st). Akron plays one of those teams in 2015 -- Central Michigan at home. Seven of eight conference opponents ranked 98th or worse last year, and including non-conference gimme Savannah State, the Zips will basically have nine tries to offset what is a pretty stout trio of non-conference opponents: Oklahoma, Pitt, and UL-Lafayette. (Yes, Akron beat Pitt last year and could do so again. From a pure stat standpoint, however, that isn't incredibly likely.)

There are questions for Terry Bowden to answer in 2015. The receiving corps and defensive backfield have holes to fill, and while there are new, intriguing options at quarterback, there are no guarantees of improvement. Akron was indeed incredibly unstable from week to week, and Bowden has to prove that was because of inexperience and not the coaching staff.

Still, between the exciting new batch of transfers and the ease of the schedule, I would be shocked if Akron wasn't bowling this coming winter. Bowden has done a solid job of raising expectations within the hapless program he inherited, and I'm betting 2015 is when he reaps some rewards. He will have one of the most athletic, exciting teams in the conference, and if his Zips go 1-1 against CMU and BGSU, they could produce a record gaudy enough to threaten for the division title. This should be a fun year.