The big 2015 San Diego State football guide: The time is now

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1. If not now, when?

If I hadn't started last year's San Diego State preview with "Every year if feels like I say something similar about San Diego State," I'd be tempted to do the same this year. In fact, a lot of last year's introduction still applies.

The Aztecs are actually reaching an interesting crossroads. After winning 34 games in the nine seasons between 2000-08, the Aztecs have won 34 in four years. They attended four bowls from 1969-2009, and they've now attended four in a row.

But eight wins gets boring. As an SDSU fan, you have to know how much better off your program is than at any point since the 1970s, but you find yourself getting frustrated.

This program is in good shape, and recruiting has had a clear impact. The only question is whether SDSU can at some point break into double digits in the win column.

San Diego State was both slightly better and much less lucky in 2014. As a result, the Aztecs won seven games, breaking a four-year streak of eight or more. A year after going 6-2 in games decided by one possession, they went 0-2 in such games. The defense took a nice step forward, but a limited offense sank a little bit further.

If Rocky Long wasn't fully enmeshed in Glen Mason Territory before 2014, he definitely was when it ended, especially since the season wrapped up with a how-did-they-lose-that defeat to Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl.

I expected eight or nine wins, so the Aztecs were a bit disappointing. But they were also crazy young. Their best running back, two of their three best receivers, their best defensive tackle and linebacker, and most of their defensive backs were sophomores. They survived with a limited quarterback, handled their business against weaker teams, and played well at home.

Most importantly, they didn't get knocked off of their overall trajectory, which, thanks to recruiting, is distinctly upward.

Until San Jose State crashed the party with an out-of-nowhere awesome class, SDSU had carved out a clear niche as the No. 2 recruiting team in the Mountain West. According to the 247Sports Composite, Long had signed the second-best class in the conference each year from 2012-14, and combined with exciting transfers, Long has built a base of talent. And if last year's growing pains turn into this year's maturation, SDSU could be on the way to impressive.

In this week's New Mexico preview, I talked about Bob Davie, a coach who had built infrastructure without a breakthrough. Long is in the same boat, though San Diego State's floor and ceiling have both been higher. The Aztecs are winning more games than ever but haven't actually improved for a while. Is this the year infrastructure turns into wins?

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 6-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 76
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	Northern Arizona	N/A	38-7	W	59%	5.1	100%
6-Sep	at North Carolina	70	27-31	L	17%	-21.9	28%
20-Sep	at Oregon State	74	7-28	L	5%	-39.3	1%
27-Sep	UNLV	118	34-17	W	55%	3.0	97%
3-Oct	at Fresno State	102	13-24	L	15%	-24.4	24%
10-Oct	at New Mexico	94	24-14	W	62%	7.4	97%
18-Oct	Hawaii	111	20-10	W	44%	-3.4	91%
1-Nov	at Nevada	64	14-30	L	27%	-14.5	34%
8-Nov	Idaho	112	35-21	W	57%	3.8	98%
15-Nov	at Boise State	21	29-38	L	43%	-4.2	32%
21-Nov	Air Force	48	30-14	W	70%	12.5	91%
29-Nov	San Jose State	116	38-7	W	87%	26.2	100%
23-Dec	Navy	44	16-17	L	47%	-1.6	61%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	25.4	89	28.3	66
Points Per Game	25.0	91	19.8	13

2. A season at three glances

Some teams start slowly in September, then improve. Some play a lot better at home than on the road. Some play superior ball against inferior opponents but struggle against teams that can match their own athleticism.

San Diego State was all of those teams.

"Start slowly in September, then improve."

• Average Percentile Performance (first 5 games): 30% (record: 2-3)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 8 games): 55% (record: 5-3)

"Play a lot better at home than on the road."

• Average Percentile Performance (on the road): 28% (record: 1-5)
• Average Percentile Performance (at home): 62% (record: 6-1)

"Superior ball against inferior opponents."

• Average Percentile Performance (vs. top-75 teams): 35% (record: 1-5)
• Average Percentile Performance (vs. everybody else): 54% (record: 6-1)

All these descriptions are frequently used to describe young teams. SDSU did have a senior quarterback and an experienced offensive line, but so many of the important young members of this team developed as the year progressed.

Running back D.J. Pumphrey went from good (first five games: 112.2 yards per game, 5.7 per carry) to great (last eight: 164.0 per game, 7.4 per carry). After defensing (intercepting or breaking up) zero passes in the first three games of the year, cornerback Damontae Kazee defensed 14 in the next 10. After recording one tackle for loss in the first seven games, USC transfer Christian Heyward had five in the next six.

That's an exciting sign moving forward.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.86	58	IsoPPP+	91.3	88
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.0%	44	Succ. Rt. +	101.9	63
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.1	32	Def. FP+	102.0	44
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	99	Redzone S&P+	90.6	94
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.8		ACTUAL	22	+3.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	73	87	72	88
RUSHING	28	57	53	59
PASSING	108	108	91	108
Standard Downs		86	67	92
Passing Downs		86	96	78

Q1 Rk	75	1st Down Rk	86
Q2 Rk	95	2nd Down Rk	115
Q3 Rk	53	3rd Down Rk	82
Q4 Rk	123

3. A Jeff Horton offense

SDSU's offense definitely improved, but it was still the weakest of the Aztecs' three units. The passing game was limited; SDSU managed a passer rating of just 109.1 (113th in FBS), went over 130 twice all season, and ranked 108th in Passing S&P+. Quinn Kaehler made a lot of mistakes (12 interceptions, 20 sacks), but freshman Nick Bawden was half as effective.

Perhaps it isn't a surprise that Long overhauled his offensive staff. Offensive coordinator Bob Toledo retired, and two other assistants left. Through change, Long still offered a bit of stability by promoting running backs coach Jeff Horton to the coordinator seat.

Horton's influences are clear. From 1999 to 2005, the former Nevada and UNLV head coach worked under Barry Alvarez at Wisconsin. After four years, as an NFL assistant, he came back to the college ranks in 2010, serving as Minnesota's offensive coordinator for the final year of Tim Brewster's tenure before coming to San Diego.

He preaches a Wisconsin style: physicality, pro-style sets, and the ability to run, run, run. In other words, he preaches everything that San Diego State has been good at.

D.J. Pumphrey erupted in 2014, with 1,873 yards and 20 touchdowns, but he's only the latest of many successful SDSU running backs. Since Horton's arrival in 2011, the leading SDSU rusher has gone for at least 1,244 yards at 15 touchdowns each season, and in three of the four years, the leader has hit at least 1,458 yards. SDSU has won games with old-school feature backs and the play-action pass. That isn't going to change.

Of course, whether SDSU actually improves from one-dimensional to two will depend on that second dimension.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Quinn Kaehler					169	307	2157	9	12	55.0%	20	6.1%	6.2
Nick Bawden	6'3, 225	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8333	13	38	147	1	2	34.2%	3	7.3%	3.1
Christian Chapman	6'0, 180	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8167
Maxwell Smith (Kentucky 2013)	6'5, 235	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	NR	105	183	1276	9	1	57.4%	18	9.0%	5.9
Jake Rodrigues (Oregon)	6'3, 207	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9149
Ryan Agnew	6'0, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8184

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
D.J. Pumphrey	RB	5'9, 170	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8044	277	1873	20	6.8	6.9	43.0%	4	4
Chase Price	RB	5'8, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	141	674	5	4.8	4.1	36.9%	2	1
Dakota Gordon	FB	5'10, 235	Sr.	NR	NR	26	110	0	4.2	3.8	23.1%	0	0
Nick Bawden	QB	6'3, 225	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8333	8	63	0	7.9	4.5	62.5%	1	1
Marcus Stamps	RB	6'1, 210	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8448	8	60	0	7.5	10.3	37.5%	0	0
Lucky Radley	RB					7	32	1	4.6	2.3	57.1%	0	0
Lloyd Mills	WR	5'10, 165	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8091	5	103	0	20.6	27.6	60.0%	1	0
Quinn Kaehler	QB					5	25	0	5.0	3.1	40.0%	2	0
Rashaad Penny	RB	5'11, 200	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8432
William Walker	RB	5'10, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8456
Juwan Washington	RB	5'7, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8286
Jatory Sparks-Brown	RB	5'11, 215	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8227

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Lloyd Mills	WR-X	5'10, 165	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8091	53	22	307	41.5%	16.4%	39.6%	5.8	13	5.6	35.2
Ezell Ruffin	WR-Z					44	26	422	59.1%	13.6%	68.2%	9.6	102	10.4	48.3
Eric Judge	WR-X	6'1, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8148	42	24	474	57.1%	13.0%	66.7%	11.3	177	11.9	54.3
D.J. Pumphrey	RB	5'9, 170	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8044	35	23	160	65.7%	10.8%	48.6%	4.6	-117	4.9	18.3
Larry Clark	WR-Z					28	17	242	60.7%	8.7%	50.0%	8.6	34	8.7	27.7
Chase Price	RB	5'8, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	24	17	126	70.8%	7.4%	58.3%	5.3	-76	5.3	14.4
Jemond Hazely	WR-X	6'1, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7899	22	13	173	59.1%	6.8%	50.0%	7.9	13	7.7	19.8
Adam Roberts	FB					21	14	133	66.7%	6.5%	57.1%	6.3	-35	6.3	15.2
Dakota Gordon	FB	5'10, 235	Sr.	NR	NR	13	7	58	53.8%	4.0%	61.5%	4.5	-30	4.4	6.6
Mikah Holder	WR	6'0, 175	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8538	11	5	53	45.5%	3.4%	45.5%	4.8	-12	4.9	6.1
Chase Favreau	WR	6'1, 200	So.	NR	0.7000	9	2	55	22.2%	2.8%	22.2%	6.1	22	12.9	6.3
Daniel Brunskill	TE	6'5, 250	Jr.	NR	NR	9	5	31	55.6%	2.8%	100.0%	3.4	-31	N/A	3.5
Robert Craighead	TE/OL	6'3, 265	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7552	5	4	42	80.0%	1.5%	60.0%	8.4	-5	8.6	4.8
Paul Pitts III	WR	6'0, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7906	4	2	23	50.0%	1.2%	25.0%	5.8	-2	5.4	2.6
Kameron Kelly	WR	6'2, 190	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7907
Jabril Clewis	WR	6'2, 200	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8130
DeSean Holmes	WR	5'10, 175	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9301
John Carroll	TE	6'2, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8517
Jack Bailey	WR	6'2, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8069
Hasani Smith	TE	6'5, 275	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7600
Jerry Chaney	WR	6'0, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7817

4. No excuse not to pass better

When you are a run-first team that wants to set up play action, you're all but guaranteed to end up with a completion rate lower than normal and per-completion yardage averages that are higher. But the balance was off for SDSU over the last couple of seasons.

Kaehler was mistake-prone, and last year's top three receivers weren't efficient enough to maximize explosiveness. The most frequent target, Lloyd Mills, caught only 42 percent of his passes, which offset the impact of his 14 yards per catch. And while Ezell Ruffin and Eric Judge were better (combined: 58 percent catch rate, 17.9 yards per catch), the lack of efficiency frequently brought SDSU to a standstill.

Pumphrey is incredible, but he can't carry 50 times per game. Horton will have to figure out how to get more from the passing game, either to draw defenders out of the box on standard downs or catch back up to the chains on passing downs. And whoever wins the starting quarterback job is going to be young, new, or both.

SDSU's quarterback race features last year's backup (Nick Bawden), a former Kentucky starter (Maxwell Smith), a former four-star Oregon signee (Jake Rodrigues), a three-star redshirt freshman (Christian Chapman), and a three-star true freshman (Ryan Agnew). There is all sorts of upside here for a position that desperately needed some last year, but in terms of proven capabilities, quarterback is still lacking. Bawden averaged just 3.1 yards per pass attempt in 2014, and as UK starter, Smith averaged just 5.9 in 2013, albeit with only one interception.

According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, Smith and Chapman finished spring ahead of the pack, but they could still be caught.

Whoever starts has a pretty high ceiling. In theory, so does the receiving corps. Mills and Judge are back, and sophomores Chase Favreau and Mikah Holder, a former star recruit, had a nice spring. Plus, three-star redshirt freshman Jabril Clewis could figure into the rotation, and Long signed one hell of a set of freshman receivers. Four-star freshman DeSean Holmes was a one-time USC commit and a top-200 recruit overall, and two other wideouts and two tight ends each received either three-star or high-two-star designations.

There will be no excuse for SDSU's passing game to again rank in the triple digits. And it won't have to be good for the offense to thrive; it just has to be competent.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	110.4	3.54	3.67	40.6%	74.3%	14.7%	102.8	4.3%	7.5%
Rank	32	7	29	48	18	12	65	55	67

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Terry Poole	LT					25	2014 2nd All-MWC
Darrell Greene	RG	6'4, 315	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593	25
Nico Siragusa	LG	6'5, 325	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8428	14
Jordan Smith	C					14
Pearce Slater	RT	6'7, 335	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7889	13
Lenicio Noble	C					11
Garrett Corbett	LT					0
Paul Rodriguez	LG					0
Robert Craighead	OG	6'3, 265	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7552	0
Kwayde Miller	LT	6'7, 310	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8394	0
Arthur Flores	OL	6'5, 305	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8352	0
Austin Maass	C	6'4, 285	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8581	0
Sergio Phillips	OL	6'2, 285	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8280	0
Ryan Krum (UAB)	OL	6'4, 335	Jr.	NR	0.7000
Ryan Pope	OL	6'7, 320	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000
Pesi Savea	OL	6'6, 275	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8467
William Tuihalamaka	OL	6'5, 350	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8457

5. "Two guys who we know can play ... 10 other guys who we’re hoping can play"

From the same Union-Tribune piece:

The offensive line yielded four sacks and suffered numerous false-start penalties. Few were the opportunities when the quarterbacks were able to stand in the pocket for more than a couple of seconds.

"Right now, I’m not sure that we have an offensive line," Long said. "I think we’ve got two guys who we know can play, and we’ve got 10 other guys who we’re hoping can play."

SDSU returns three players with a combined four years of starting experience up front, but in attempting to replace all-conference tackle Terry Poole and centers Jordan Smith and Lenicio Noble this spring, the line was an albatross. Part of this is because it was dealing with a defensive front that could be downright awesome, but there's still concern.

From a recruiting standpoint, the upside is enormous -- seven linemen were given three-star designations by the Composite, and seven were Rivals three-stars as well.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.75	19	IsoPPP+	113.0	32
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.1%	39	Succ. Rt. +	102.9	54
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.1	26	Off. FP+	104.0	25
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.4	68	Redzone S&P+	104.1	46
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.4		ACTUAL	26.0	+4.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	16	42	47	32
RUSHING	50	35	44	28
PASSING	10	41	63	34
Standard Downs		25	32	19
Passing Downs		84	85	79

Q1 Rk	27	1st Down Rk	37
Q2 Rk	38	2nd Down Rk	28
Q3 Rk	46	3rd Down Rk	22
Q4 Rk	69

6. I can't wait to watch this defense

SDSU pulled off a lovely combination in 2014: strong, aggressive efficiency numbers with minimal big plays allowed. The Aztecs allowed just 138 gains of 10-plus yards (eighth in the country) and four of 50-plus (18th), but their standard downs efficiency (32nd in SD Success Rate+) was still awesome. And again, this defense was loaded with sophomores.

Long has been at SDSU, either as defensive coordinator or head coach, since 2009. His 2014 unit was his second best according to Def. S&P+; it ranked 66th overall and now returns four of its top five linemen and basically all of last year's defensive backs. There are questions at linebacker, but there are also loads of high-ceiling candidates to answer those questions.

The best SDSU defense Long has fielded ranked 52nd in 2012, and I would be a little bit surprised if the Aztecs didn't top that.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	102.6	2.79	3.81	37.0%	72.9%	18.3%	97.1	7.3%	5.3%
Rank	51	43	113	41	98	79	72	17	104

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Alex Barrett	DT	6'3, 260	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7500	10	30.0	4.1%	9.0	3.0	0	2	1	0
Jon Sanchez	DE	6'2, 260	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7906	13	29.5	4.0%	7.5	2.5	1	1	1	0
Sam Meredith	DE					13	26.0	3.6%	3.5	1.0	0	1	2	0
Christian Heyward	DT	6'3, 300	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9484	11	25.5	3.5%	5.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Dakota Turner	DE	6'3, 235	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8149	12	16.0	2.2%	2.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Dontrell Onuoha	DE					13	13.5	1.9%	2.5	1.5	1	0	0	0
Sergio Phillips	DT	6'2, 285	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8280	7	3.5	0.5%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Kenny Galea'i	DL					13	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Malcolm Jackson	DT	6'3, 275	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8201
Micah Seau	DE	6'3, 260	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7922
Noble Hall	DE	6'3, 230	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8163
Randy Ricks	DE	6'5, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8133

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Josh Gavert	LB					13	71.5	9.8%	4.5	1.0	1	4	1	0
Calvin Munson	LB	6'1, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7444	13	68.5	9.4%	10.5	4.0	4	0	2	0
Cody Galea	MLB					13	42.0	5.8%	6.5	3.0	0	1	2	1
Derek Largent	LB					10	29.5	4.0%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Jake Fely	LB	5'10, 215	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8208	3	8.5	1.2%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Fred Melifonwu	MLB	6'5, 235	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8341	13	5.5	0.8%	2.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Jay Henderson	LB	6'2, 205	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8174	9	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Devante Davis	LB	6'2, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7800	13	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Aaron Boesch	LB	6'5, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8033
Daryl Dunlap	LB	6'2, 220	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8286
Tyler Morris	LB	6'3, 215	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8175
Ryan Dunn (Arizona)	LB	6'3, 205	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8307
Austin Wyatt-Thayer	LB	6'5, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7633
Kyahva Tezino	LB	6'0, 225	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9024
Reggie Murphy	LB	6'5, 250	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8173
Ronley Lakalaka	LB	6'0, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8081

7. Turnover at linebacker

SDSU ranked 51st in Adj. Line Yards and 72nd in Adj. Sack Rate last season. The Aztecs struggled in short-yardage situations (98th in Power Success Rate), which isn't surprising considering a 3-3-5 alignment will sacrifice some size for speed and deception. But the down-to-down run defense was good, and the Aztecs were able to confuse passers enough to record one of the best standard downs sack rates in the country.

Luckily, the linebacker most responsible for these numbers, junior Calvin Munson, returns. The three other LBs who recorded more than 10 tackles last year are gone. The candidates for a star turn are legion, however: injury-prone senior Jake Fely, three-star sophomores Fred Melifonwu (if he doesn't move to defensive end), Jay Henderson, Daryl Dunlap, and Tyler Morris, converted tight end Aaron Boesch, JUCO transfer Austin Wyatt-Thayer, four-star freshman Kyahva Tezino, et cetera.

The three departed linebackers were solid, but I can't bring myself to worry about this unit, especially considering the favors the defensive line will do for them.

There could still be concern with short yardage, and we'll see if the blitz is any better, but Long should find plenty of the pieces he needs to confuse and attack with his front six. That will set the table for an awesome secondary.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
J.J. Whittaker	CB	5'10, 180	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8208	13	53.0	7.3%	2	0	2	6	0	0
Na'im McGee	AZTEC	6'0, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8122	12	52.0	7.1%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Trey Lomax	WAR	5'11, 185	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8108	12	50.5	6.9%	3	1	0	3	0	2
Damontae Kazee	CB	5'11, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7900	13	49.0	6.7%	4	0	1	12	0	1
Malik Smith	WAR	6'0, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7900	13	42.0	5.8%	3.5	0	3	5	0	0
Brandon Porter	AZTEC	5'11, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826	11	31.0	4.3%	2	0	0	2	1	0
Billy Vaughn, Jr.	CB	6'1, 180	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8098	13	24.5	3.4%	0	0	1	3	0	0
Pierre Romain	DB	5'8, 165	Sr.	NR	NR	13	7.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
T.J. Hickman	DB	6'0, 190	Sr.	NR	NR	13	4.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kalan Montgomery	CB	6'1, 185	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8235	13	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Fred Trevillion	WAR	6'2, 190	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593	12	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
David Lamar	CB					10	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kendrick Mathis	WAR	6'0, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8255
Ron Smith	S	6'0, 165	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8457
Dwayne Parchment	DB	5'11, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8226
Jeff Clay	DB	6'0, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859

8. Big plays for me, none for thee

Five SDSU defensive backs recorded at least two tackles for loss, four defensed at least four passes, and everyone returns. SDSU had a top-40 pass defense in terms of big-play prevention (34th in Passing IsoPPP+) but still managed to make plays of its own without a dominant pass rush. And of last year's top seven regulars, four were sophomores and two were freshmen.

J.J. Whittaker and Damontae Kazee have both looked like ace cornerbacks at points (Whittaker had 14 passes defensed in 2013, Kazee had 13 in 2014), and the two-deep among the three safety positions is now loaded with experience and athleticism.

If the front six manages to improve -- a possibility because of the experience on the line and the athleticism at linebacker (but not a given because of the ineperience at linebacker) -- the secondary will make this a top-40 defense.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Joel Alesi			58	36.2	1	19	21	69.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Seamus McMorrow			52	62.9	13	1	25.0%
Donny Hageman	6'1, 170	Sr.	19	62.7	5	3	26.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Donny Hageman	6'1, 170	Sr.	37-37	12-15	80.0%	5-6	83.3%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Rashaad Penny	KR	5'11, 200	So.	20	25.0	0
Kameron Kelly	KR	6'2, 190	So.	5	26.2	0
Lloyd Mills	PR	5'10, 165	Jr.	18	11.4	1
Billy Vaughn, Jr.	PR	6'1, 180	So.	2	1.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	19
Field Goal Efficiency	24
Punt Return Efficiency	85
Kick Return Efficiency	35
Punt Efficiency	39
Kickoff Efficiency	11
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	8

9. An underrated weapon is gone

SDSU's special teams unit was sound, top to bottom. The returns were explosive if inconsistent, Joel Alesi's punts were high and unreturnable, and Donny Hageman's kickoffs and place-kicks were strong if a bit scattershot (he kicked three of 19 kickoffs out of bounds and made a higher percentage of his longer field goals than his shorter field goals).

SDSU ranked 19th overall in special teams efficiency but might struggle to match that without Alesi, who was perhaps underappreciated because of the length of his punts (just 36.2 yards) but consistently pinned opponents deep and only allowed 18 of 58 punts to be returned (for just a four-yard average).

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
5-Sep	San Diego	NR
12-Sep	at California	65
19-Sep	South Alabama	89
26-Sep	at Penn State	45
3-Oct	Fresno State	102
10-Oct	at Hawaii	111
17-Oct	at San Jose State	116
24-Oct	Utah State	52
31-Oct	at Colorado State	49
14-Nov	Wyoming	113
21-Nov	at UNLV	118
28-Nov	Nevada	64

Five-Year F/+ Rk	0.6% (54)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	74 / 74
2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	4 / 2.7
2014 TO Luck/Game	+0.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (7, 7)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	8.6 (-1.6)

10. Utah State and Nevada at home ... no Boise State...

San Diego State boasts one of the best running backs in the country, a strong set of defensive tackles, a linebacking corps with loads of athleticism, one of the best mid-major secondaries in the country, and, at the very least, quite a few high-ceiling candidates for the starting jobs at quarterback and receiver. They will also get a little bit of new blood in the play-calling department, which might not be a bad thing.

There are still obvious questions in the passing game and on the offensive line, but the odds are good that both the offense and defense improve.

So what does that mean? First of all, it means that the Aztecs should be considered the favorite to win the MWC West. Last year's two biggest West rivals, Fresno State and Nevada, are both replacing key pieces and have to visit San Diego, where the Aztecs were pretty awesome. Utah State visits, and there's no Boise State on the slate. San Jose State could be a really interesting team thanks to its recruiting, but the Spartans will probably too young to seriously threaten.

It also means that if SDSU is ever going to break the nine-win barrier, it will be this year. The Aztecs return plenty of fun pieces in 2016, but the conference schedule will flip and feature quite a few testy road games. This is an incredible opportunity for SDSU to break through, and while I get a little bit anxious saying so many nice things about a team with a new quarterback, that's how much I like D.J. Pumphrey and the defense.