The big 2015 Nevada football guide: Already building for the future

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. One step forward

Heading into Brian Polian's second year, it's hard to escape this:

• Nevada's record, last 5 years with Chris Ault: 42-24
• Nevada's record, last 5 years with anyone else: 20-39

Following a legend is never easy; it is anticipated that you will fail. Polian's first year did nothing to assuage concerns that Nevada will falter once again.

-- The big 2014 Nevada football preview

You can see whatever you want to see.

If you want to be optimistic, you've got evidence.

After regressing for three straight seasons, the Wolf Pack rebounded in 2014, winning seven games, ranking in the S&P+ top 70 in both offense and defense, playing four F/+ top-50 teams and either staying within a touchdown or beating each one.

The pistol offense was as efficient as a Nevada Pistol Offense is supposed to be, the defense mastered the art of bending without breaking, and special teams was a strength. Only a 2-4 record in one-possession games kept the Wolf Pack from winning nine or more games for the first time since the magical 13-1 run of 2010. Despite a bowl dud, the entire team raised its game.

If you want to be pessimistic, you've got evidence, too.

Nevada's offense was almost solely reliant on a good offensive line and the play-making ability of quarterback Cody Fajardo, but Fajardo and three two- or three-year starters up front are gone. And that defense must replace its top three defensive backs, all of whom were instrumental.

Polian's second year after succeeding Chris Ault was encouraging, simply because Nevada won games. When you lose a legend and stumble, there will be a sense of dread. With an experienced two-deep and an awesome quarterback, Polian and his staff were able to engineer a rebound.

Replacing a historic figure like Ault is nearly impossible no matter what. You have to both maintain a level of winning and satisfy those who long for the legend. Alabama replaced Bear Bryant with former Bryant receiver Ray Perkins, and after a second-year stumble, Tide fans never really accepted him, even as he went 19-5-1 in his third and fourth years. When Bill Snyder retired in 2005, Kansas State brought in Ron Prince, a young up-and-comer with no Snyder ties. With Snyder's spectre hanging over, he went 17-20 and was dismissed after three seasons.

Polian was an awful lot like Prince on paper, and his hire in 2013 was confusing. He had spent the last eight seasons as special teams coordinator and/or position coach at Notre Dame, Stanford, and Texas A&M, he had never served as an offensive or defensive coordinator, and he had no ties to Ault or Nevada.

If nothing else, 2014 was a partial vindication. But the squad was senior-heavy, and from this point forward, the bones of the program belong to him. I think those dread fears will return, at least among the pessimist crowd.

Polian will have to turn the team over to youngsters. That could pay off down the line, especially if Polian's ability to identify talent turn out to be a strength and if some linebackers and defensive backs quickly live up to recruiting hype.

But whether you are an optimist or a pessimist, the Wolf Pack will see a lot of change, and that usually results in setbacks.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 4-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 64
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	Southern Utah	N/A	28-19	W	41%	-5.3	91%
5-Sep	Washington State	77	24-13	W	48%	-1.3	68%
13-Sep	at Arizona	28	28-35	L	23%	-17.3	9%
27-Sep	at San Jose State	116	21-10	W	35%	-9.1	54%
4-Oct	Boise State	21	46-51	L	44%	-3.3	16%
11-Oct	Colorado State	49	24-31	L	33%	-10.4	9%
18-Oct	at BYU	46	42-35	W	76%	16.4	84%
25-Oct	at Hawaii	111	26-18	W	54%	2.6	90%
1-Nov	San Diego State	76	30-14	W	64%	8.4	66%
15-Nov	at Air Force	48	38-45	L	42%	-4.6	26%
22-Nov	Fresno State	102	20-40	L	16%	-22.8	12%
29-Nov	at UNLV	118	49-27	W	78%	17.8	100%
20-Dec	vs. UL-Lafayette	72	3-16	L	33%	-10.2	16%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	28.7	64	30.9	87
Points Per Game	29.2	64	27.2	69

2. Two seasons

Nevada was a confusing team on paper last year. Based on percentile performances, the Wolf Pack played like a top-80 team for the first half of the season, then improved to top-60 in the second half. But some of their more intriguing results came early on.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 6 games): 37% (record: 3-3)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 6 games): 55% (record: 4-2)

The Win Expectancy column above tosses a game's stats (efficiency, explosiveness, field position, turnovers, etc.) into a blender and tells you, "With stats like these, Team A would have won this game approximately X percent of the time." Without luck, you'll generally see that the higher the Win Expectancy, the higher the scoring margin.

Nevada, however, had quite a few closer-than-expected wins and closer-than-expected losses. The Wolf Pack beat Southern Utah by nine points despite 91 percent win expectancy, beat Hawaii by eight at 90 percent, and beat BYU by seven despite 84 percent. They lost two games by seven points despite sub-10 percent win expectancy (Arizona, Colorado State) and lost to Boise State by just five at 16 percent. Unlikely results were the norm.

Nevada and Nevada's stats didn't agree much, but neither did Nevada and logic. After playing strong football against BYU, Hawaii, and San Diego State and narrowly falling on the road against a good Air Force, the Wolf Pack returned home and lost the MWC West with a dud against Fresno State.

Every time you thought you had a read on this team, it changed course. That's a characteristic of young teams, but Nevada wasn't that young.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.81	88	IsoPPP+	91.6	87
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	41.9%	61	Succ. Rt. +	104.1	56
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.1	53	Def. FP+	100.0	65
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.8	34	Redzone S&P+	112.6	36
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.6		ACTUAL	16	+0.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	71	76	56	87
RUSHING	38	53	52	53
PASSING	98	80	51	93
Standard Downs		82	45	98
Passing Downs		66	86	60

Q1 Rk	122	1st Down Rk	103
Q2 Rk	73	2nd Down Rk	105
Q3 Rk	40	3rd Down Rk	81
Q4 Rk	51

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2015 Year

Rivals

247 Comp.

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Cody Fajardo

239

405

2498

18

11

59.0%

20

4.7%

5.5

Tyler Stewart

6'4, 220

Jr.

3 stars (5.5)

0.8398

Dante Mayes

6'2, 190

So.

2 stars (5.2)

0.7883

Hunter Fralick

6'2, 210

RSFr.

2 stars (5.3)

0.8225

3. Three candidates

While Polian didn't have ties to Nevada, his offensive coordinator did. Nick Rolovich was Ault's final offensive coordinator in Reno, and Polian retained him to make sure that the crowd-pleasing pistol remained.

When you are the birthplace of a popular offense, and that offense gains yards and points, changing the identity might lose plenty of slack with the home crowd. Just ask Brian VanGorder.

With Cody Fajardo running the show, the Nevada offense looked like it was supposed to; the Wolf Pack were a run-first, efficiency-based unit focused on moving the chains. Fajardo finished as one of only two all-time FBS players with 9,000 passing yards and 3,000 rushing yards (the other one: his Nevada predecessor, Colin Kaepernick), and Nevada finished with a top-70 offense.

So what happens without Fajardo? He threw all but one Nevada pass in 2014 (the other by a receiver), and his 7.6 yards per carry (not including sacks) dragged a running game toward respectability despite inefficient running from Don Jackson and James Butler. The bowl loss to UL-Lafayette saw Fajardo trying desperately to get others involved, but the supporting cast seemed completely outmanned. Fifteen carries by Jackson and Butler gained 40 yards, and Fajardo's 14 completions gained 124. Was Fajardo the only thing keeping this offense afloat?

Big Tyler Stewart saw some action in 2013 when Fajardo was hurt and averaged 5.7 yards per pass attempt, but he isn't nearly the same run threat. Sophomore Dante Mayes brings mobility and an unknown arm. And while Hunter Fralick was one of the best quarterbacks in Nevada high school history at Sparks Spanish Springs, he's just a redshirt freshman.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Don Jackson	RB	5'10, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8000	216	957	7	4.4	4.7	31.5%	1	0
Cody Fajardo	QB					157	1194	13	7.6	7.0	51.6%	1	1
James Butler	RB	5'9, 200	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8123	141	639	5	4.5	4.7	32.6%	2	0
Nate McLaurin	RB					11	50	0	4.5	2.2	54.5%	0	0
Blake Wright	RB	5'10, 200	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7585
Lucas Weber	RB	6'1, 195	RSFr.	NR	NR
Keiton Moore	RB	5'11, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Richy Turner	WR-X					110	63	587	57.3%	28.2%	57.3%	5.3	-192	5.3	63.0
Jerico Richardson	WR-Z	5'11, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8135	89	56	655	62.9%	22.8%	58.4%	7.4	-25	7.3	70.3
Hasaan Henderson	WR-F	6'5, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8263	69	45	579	65.2%	17.7%	56.5%	8.4	37	8.3	62.1
Jarred Gipson	TE	6'1, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7300	46	33	291	71.7%	11.8%	54.3%	6.3	-100	6.3	31.2
Kendall Brock	WR-X					31	16	138	51.6%	7.9%	71.0%	4.5	-64	4.6	14.8
Don Jackson	RB	5'10, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8000	16	13	157	81.3%	4.1%	18.8%	9.8	6	5.4	16.8
Wyatt Demps	WR-F	6'4, 200	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8181	12	4	57	33.3%	3.1%	50.0%	4.8	0	4.7	6.1
James Butler	RB	5'9, 200	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8123	6	5	13	83.3%	1.5%	83.3%	2.2	-45	3.7	1.4
Brayden Sanchez	WR-Z	5'11, 200	Jr.	NR	NR	3	2	10	66.7%	0.8%	66.7%	3.3	-14	3.8	1.1
Matt Moen	TE	6'3, 240	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7585	3	0	0	0.0%	0.8%	66.7%	0.0	-4	0.0	0.0
Patrick Clifford	TE					2	2	11	100.0%	0.5%	100.0%	5.5	-12	N/A	1.2
Kameron Richardson	WR-F	6'7, 230	Jr.	NR	NR
Andrew Celis	WR	5'11, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8167
Brandon Scott	TE	6'3, 225	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7659
Evan Faunce	TE	6'4, 240	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7894
Dominic Christian	WR	6'1, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8033
Victor Gonzalez	WR	6'0, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7578

4. Any playmakers?

Both Don Jackson and James Butler had their moments. Jackson rushed 12 times for 106 yards against SJSU, Butler had seven for 63 against Boise State, and the two combined for 68 carries and 475 yards against SDSU and UNLV.

Take out those four examples, and they averaged just 3.5 yards per carry the rest of the year. They almost never fumbled, and they were able to take pounding between the tackles, which helped Fajardo stay healthy, but their hits were less prominent than their misses.

Of the 102 FBS running backs with at least 140 carries, Butler and Jackson ranked 85th and 87th, respectively, in Opportunity Rate (percentage of carries gaining at least five yards), and while other backs made up for inefficiency with big plays, they didn't have many of those either.

Of the six Nevada players to catch more than five passes, none averaged more than 12.9 yards per catch, and three averaged under 9.5. This team was bereft of big plays, but Fajardo's presence assured occasional efficiency.

Big receiver Hasaan Henderson showed flashes of a high ceiling -- he caught seven passes for 141 yards against Boise State but missed most of the last five games -- but any major upgrade in big-play capability will come from underclassmen, be it sophomore Wyatt Demps, redshirt freshman Andrew Celis, or an incoming freshman like Dominic Christian. Henderson, Jerico Richardson, and Jarred Gipson can provide nice possession options, but someone's going to need to stretch the field, especially if Fajardo's absence wipes away any big plays from the run game.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	108.9	3.05	3.48	38.2%	68.9%	16.9%	130.5	4.7%	5.0%
Rank	38	52	44	76	52	31	31	68	30

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Matt Galas	C					37	2014 2nd All-MWC
Kyle Roberts	RT					24
Connor Talbott	RG					20
Austin Corbett	LT	6'4, 280	So.	NR	NR	12
Jeremy Macauley	LG	6'1, 305	Jr.	NR	NR	12
Joey Anglemire	LG	6'3, 280	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7444	10
Adam Khouri	LG	6'3, 295	So.	NR	NR	2
Jacob Henry	LT	6'4, 260	Jr.	NR	NR	0
Nathan Goltry	C	6'2, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8333	0
Taylor Evans	RT	6'4, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	0
Derrick Stom	OL	6'2, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7483

5. A strength gets weaker

Fajardo's improvisation helped Nevada's line stats a, in his ability to both avoid sacks (bowl game notwithstanding) and scramble upfield. Still, this was a strong line that did well in short-yardage situations and prevented losses, even if the running backs didn't always take advantage.

Between replacing all-conference center Matt Galas and both of the starters on the right side, it's hard to imagine this unit keeping up last year's pace. Four players with starting experience (36 career starts) return, but depth and consistency could be issues.

So basically, Nevada's 2015 starting quarterback, whoever that ends up being, will face a Polian-esque situation: replacing a longtime fixture with inexperience around him. There's almost no way this offense pulls off another top-70 ranking. Top-90 might be pretty good.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.77	25	IsoPPP+	97.1	75
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	46.2%	112	Succ. Rt. +	88.5	113
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.7	49	Off. FP+	103.0	30
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.1	42	Redzone S&P+	88.1	113
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.5		ACTUAL	27.0	+3.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	102	96	110	75
RUSHING	81	100	101	90
PASSING	112	90	113	64
Standard Downs		104	118	86
Passing Downs		63	71	57

Q1 Rk	55	1st Down Rk	87
Q2 Rk	122	2nd Down Rk	86
Q3 Rk	99	3rd Down Rk	90
Q4 Rk	66

6. Bend ... bend ... bend...

The bowl loss was a perfect encapsulation of Nevada's defense. UL-Lafayette quarterback Terrence Broadway completed 26 of 31 passes, but the Cajuns averaged 5.6 yards per play, stalled repeatedly in scoring situations, and scored 16 points. The Nevada defense did enough to win, even while allowing a ridiculous 84 percent completion rate.

That was the story all year. Nevada allowed a respectable 27.2 points per game and ranked 69th in Def. S&P+ despite ranking in the 110s in Success Rate+. When Nevada got the opportunity to close out drives, the Wolf Pack were usually able to do so.

Most of last year's starting front seven and nearly all of the second string returns, but the Wolf Pack must replace three starting defensive backs who combined for four interceptions, 19 break-ups, and four tackles for loss. We'll see if the bend-don't-break routine can work with some of the key pieces in big-play prevention gone.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	91.1	3.34	3.70	43.0%	75.0%	17.4%	88.4	4.1%	7.8%
Rank	100	116	104	110	104	95	88	81	59

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Brock Hekking	DE					13	42.0	5.3%	9.5	5.0	0	0	0	1
Ian Seau	DE	6'2, 255	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8800	13	35.5	4.5%	11.0	8.0	1	4	2	0
Rykeem Yates	DT	6'2, 270	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	10	30.0	3.8%	10.5	1.5	0	3	2	1
Lenny Jones	DE	6'3, 270	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	13	28.5	3.6%	8.5	5.0	2	5	1	0
Salesa Faraimo	DT	6'2, 275	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7300	13	25.5	3.2%	3.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Jordan Hanson	NT					13	21.0	2.7%	4.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Dupree Roberts-Jordan	DE					13	14.0	1.8%	1.0	0.5	0	2	0	0
Patrick Choudja	DE	6'3, 225	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8519	13	8.0	1.0%	2.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Kevin Sundberg	NT	6'1, 290	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7644	4	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jeremy Miller	DT	5'11, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7719
Korey Rush	DE	6'1, 260	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8514
Malik Reed	DE	6'1, 220	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7533
Kori Collons	DE	6'5, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8316

7. A good pass rush is great as long as you're forcing passing downs

Nevada's front seven was lacking when it came to down-to-down performance, but the Wolf Pack could pin their ears back. Ends Ian Seau and Lenny Jones were fantastic at rushing the passer (13 sacks) and getting hands on passes (three interceptions, nine breakups). Their respective returns should ease the loss of leading end/mullet hero Brock Hekking.

But if the secondary is going to regress, the front seven is going to have to raise its game and force more passing downs. Last year, opponents passed early and often, and while it rarely resulted in huge plays, it was good for gaining six to 10 yards at a time.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jonathan McNeal	LB					13	77.5	9.8%	5.5	0.5	1	4	2	0
Jordan Dobrich	LB	6'2, 235	Sr.	NR	NR	13	71.0	9.0%	3.0	1.0	0	2	0	0
Matthew Lyons	LB	6'2, 230	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8447	12	62.5	7.9%	1.5	0.5	0	1	0	1
Bryan Lane Jr.	LB	6'4, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	13	53.0	6.7%	5.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Randy Uzoma	LB	6'1, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8332	13	15.0	1.9%	1.0	0.0	0	2	2	0
Trevor Taft	LB	6'2, 220	Sr.	NR	NR	13	13.5	1.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Alex Bertrando	LB	6'2, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	13	8.5	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Faigofie Faaituala	LB	6'1, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	13	6.5	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ahki Muhammad	LB	5'9, 180	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7985	2	3.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Travis Wilson	LB	6'1, 200	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7733
Riley Brand	LB	6'1, 215	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8156
Gabe Sewell	LB	6'0, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8141
Ricky Thomas Jr.	LB	6'1, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8044

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Nigel Haikins	FS					13	63.0	8.0%	0	0	3	7	1	1
Charles Garrett	CB					13	54.0	6.8%	3	1	1	10	1	0
Evan Favors	CB					11	48.5	6.1%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Duran Workman	SS	6'0, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593	12	47.0	6.0%	3	3	3	1	2	0
Kendall Johnson	CB	6'0, 180	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7906	12	19.0	2.4%	0	0	1	3	0	0
Elijah Mitchell	CB	5'8, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826	13	10.5	1.3%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Tere Calloway	SS	5'10, 190	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8469	10	10.5	1.3%	1	0	1	0	0	0
L.J. Jackson	DB	6'0, 200	Jr.	NR	NR	10	5.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kaodi Dike	FS	6'2, 198	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826	12	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jaden Sawyer	DB	6'0, 190	So.	NR	NR	13	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Elijah Moody	DB	5'11, 175	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893
Asauni Rufus	DB	6'0, 185	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7807
Dameon Baber	DB	5'11, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8475

8. Starting over in the back

If recruiting rankings can be trusted, Nevada's defense could be awfully promising in years to come. Young ends Patrick Choudja, Korey Rush, and Kori Collons were mid-three-star signees, and all have at least three years of eligibility remaining. Defensive back Dameon Baber was possibly the gem of the 2015 class and could work alongside current sophomores Tere Calloway and Kendall Johnson. And Polian signed three three-star freshman linebackers to accompany redshirt freshman Akhi Muhammad.

We'll have to see what kind of burgeoning tackle talent might or might not exist, but there's potential ... potential that probably won't turn into production in 2015.

There's plenty of experience up front, but the secondary will be starting over with upperclassmen like Duran Workman (the lone returning starter in the back) and Elijah Mitchell being joined by Johnson and Calloway. All four saw decent playing time, but after that, there are no known quantities. And considering how important the secondary's big-play prevention was to last year's bowl run, that's scary.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Alex Boy	6'3, 195	Jr.	59	44.3	6	9	19	47.5%
Brayden Sanchez	5'11, 200	Jr.	5	40.2	2	0	0	0.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Brent Zuzo	5'10, 175	Jr.	74	60.7	26	0	35.1%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Brent Zuzo	5'10, 175	Jr.	43-45	11-13	84.6%	3-5	60.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Elijah Mitchell	KR	5'8, 180	Jr.	11	24.8	0
Kendall Brock	KR			7	16.6	0
Richy Turner	PR			18	9.1	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	29
Field Goal Efficiency	66
Punt Return Efficiency	46
Kick Return Efficiency	63
Punt Efficiency	53
Kickoff Efficiency	19
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	28

9. Special teams is a strength

Despite poor defensive efficiency, Nevada was strong in the field position game because of special teams. The Wolf Pack were in the top 20 in kickoff efficiency (despite a low touchback rate), top-60 in punt efficiency, and solid in both return games. Brent Zuzo was mostly solid in place-kicking, as well. Punt returner Richy Turner is gone, but the legs all return. That will give Nevada some field position margin for error that it might desperately need.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rk
3-Sep	UC Davis	NR
12-Sep	Arizona	28
19-Sep	at Texas A&M	42
26-Sep	at Buffalo	114
3-Oct	UNLV	118
10-Oct	New Mexico	94
17-Oct	at Wyoming	113
24-Oct	Hawaii	111
7-Nov	at Fresno State	102
14-Nov	San Jose State	116
21-Nov	at Utah State	52
28-Nov	at San Diego State	76

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-0.4% (58)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	96 / 98
2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	11 / 7.9
2014 TO Luck/Game	+1.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (6, 6)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	6.4 (0.6)

10. A good time for a light(ish) schedule

Despite a non-conference slate that features Arizona and Texas A&M, Nevada's schedule is light, featuring seven opponents that ranked 102nd or worse last season. So if the Wolf Pack fall into the 80s or so, they'll have a chance at reaching bowl eligibility again.

But make no mistake: they're almost certainly going to fall. The offense must replace an awesome quarterback and three-fifths of a good offensive line, and the defense must start over in the secondary after toeing the bend-don't-break line awfully close.

The size of the drop-off might be telling. If some young players thrive, Nevada could only fall to the 70s or 80s, and the Wolf Pack could be set up for success going forward. But if Fajardo was the only thing keeping Nevada's offense upright, and if the run defense doesn't improve to take some heat off of the secondary, then they could fall far, and Polian could enter his fourth year already in need of a second bounceback.

Honestly, I'm leaning toward the latter.