The big 2015 Colorado State football guide: In better shape than you think

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1. The mid-major life cycle

Each year during the preview series, I talk about the thankless task of building a winner at the mid-major level.

Make a bad hire, and you're hiring a new guy in three years. Make the perfect hire, and you're hiring a new guy in three years (or, in Arkansas State's case, almost every year). Even if you hire an alum with great loyalty and love of the area, the gravitational pull of power-conference money is strong.

For a while, Colorado State had the exception. In 1993, former Miami defensive coordinator Sonny Lubick inherited a CSU program that had as many zero- or one-win seasons (three) as winning seasons over the previous 15 years, and after a dramatic turnaround (CSU went 10-2 in 1994 and 11-2 in 1997), Lubick thwarted interest from big-name schools.

His reward: the field at Hughes Stadium is named after him. Not bad! Of course, returns diminished -- after averaging 8.6 wins per season from 1994-2003, Lubick averaged just five in his last four years, and he retired in 2007.

At that point, CSU's life cycle took on a familiar look. Former CSU quarterback and offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild took over, won seven games in his first season, then won nine in his next three and was fired. He was replaced by Alabama offensive coordinator Jim McElwain, who pulled off a nice turnaround, went from four wins to eight to 10, and took the Florida job after three years.

After making one hire in 15 years, CSU is on its third in eight. Mid-major success is determined by your athletic department, support, and infrastructure. When your coach cannot promise he's going to be in town for a prospect's full five years, you have to be able to promise a quality experience no matter the coach. You need a good environment.

The university is trying to figure out how best to support football. That appears to mean construction of an on-campus stadium to replace Hughes Stadium, which is picturesque, aging, and two miles from campus. The new stadium would seat 36,000 for a program that averaged 26,575 last year while winning 10 games. There is risk and predictable resistance involved, but ambition appears high.

2. Hello, Mike Bobo

New head coach Mike Bobo spent the last eight seasons as Georgia's offensive coordinator/lightning rod. He frustrated UGA fans who thought he should run when he was throwing and throw when he was running; even in an environment in which virtually all fans hate one of their coordinators, "Fire Bobo" took on notoriety.

Oh yeah, and Bobo was also one of the best coordinators in college football. I loved pointing that out to Georgia fans. In his first five seasons as coordinator, the Dawgs ranked in the Off. S&P+ top 40 five times and in the top 20 twice. In his last three seasons, they ranked sixth, eighth, and sixth. He was always solid, and with more experience, he became one of the best in the business.

Still, there's nothing flashy. He figures out what his personnel can and can't do and tries to put his guys in position with minimal risk. If your defense is on its heels, he'll try to shove you to the ground with the run and play-action. If your defense is in position to attack, he'll screen and draw you to death. When he's got a deep receiving corps and a great quarterback like Aaron Murray, he'll go vertical. When his quarterback is more limited and his run game is good, he'll draw up a six-yard pass on third-and-5 and go back to running.

Bobo is cautious, pragmatic, and successful. In theory, he's got a skill set that could be perfect for a head coaching position. CSU is getting aggressive in building infrastructure, and the addition of a steady captain makes sense.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-3 | Adj. Record: 8-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 49
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
29-Aug	Colorado	83	31-17	W	43%	-3.9	81%
6-Sep	at Boise State	21	24-37	L	11%	-28.5	0%
13-Sep	UC Davis	N/A	49-21	W	64%	8.7	100%
27-Sep	at Boston College	36	24-21	W	59%	5.2	74%
4-Oct	Tulsa	117	42-17	W	87%	26.7	100%
11-Oct	at Nevada	64	31-24	W	65%	8.7	91%
18-Oct	Utah State	52	16-13	W	33%	-10.1	20%
25-Oct	Wyoming	113	45-31	W	82%	21.5	100%
1-Nov	at San Jose State	116	38-31	W	54%	2.5	93%
8-Nov	Hawaii	111	49-22	W	91%	30.8	100%
22-Nov	New Mexico	94	58-20	W	86%	25.7	100%
28-Nov	at Air Force	48	24-27	L	28%	-13.4	18%
20-Dec	vs. Utah	29	10-45	L	4%	-40.6	0%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	34.4	36	32.3	92
Points Per Game	33.9	31	25.1	45

3. Couldn't handle good offenses

McElwain engineered stark progress. In Fairchild's last two years, CSU ranked 116th and 108th in the F/+ ratings and went 6-18; in McElwain's first year, nothing much changed: 116th, 4-8.

In year two, CSU figured out how to move the ball and jumped to 71st and 8-6. And in 2014, the offense went to a different level, leading a charge to 49th and 10-3. CSU hadn't ranked higher than 70th since 2005 and hadn't won double-digit games since 2002.

The surge was isolated mostly on offense. In the last three years, the Rams' Off. S&P+ ranking went from 113th to 63rd to 36th; the defense ranked 83rd, 100th, and 92nd.

The Rams were able to hold their own against lesser squads, but against good offenses, defensive deficiencies became painfully obvious. Boise State averaged 7.6 yards per play, Utah averaged 7.1, New Mexico averaged 7.0, and Boston College averaged 6.1. And it made it pretty hard to beat good teams.

• Average Percentile Performance (vs. F/+ top 60): 27% (record: 2-3)
• Average Percentile Performance (vs. everyone else): 72% (record: 8-0)

The offense was steady, averaging under 5.7 yards per play just twice (against Utah State and Utah), but the defense just didn't have the horses.

The talent might not immediately change, but experience is high, and Bobo made an intriguing hire, bringing former UCF defensive coordinator Tyson Summers to Fort Collins. In his lone season as full-time DC, UCF improved from 48th in Def. S&P+ to 34th. The Knights were able to mix aggressiveness (their 20.1 percent Havoc Rate ranked ninth in the country) and big-play prevention (42nd in IsoPPP+, 16th against the rush).

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.02	3	IsoPPP+	119.7	28
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.7%	28	Succ. Rt. +	112.6	27
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.3	16	Def. FP+	104.0	26
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.9	25	Redzone S&P+	106.3	50
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.0		ACTUAL	17	-6.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	19	32	34	28
RUSHING	71	55	40	67
PASSING	8	22	27	15
Standard Downs		27	33	25
Passing Downs		26	21	30

Q1 Rk	53	1st Down Rk	25
Q2 Rk	56	2nd Down Rk	36
Q3 Rk	8	3rd Down Rk	21
Q4 Rk	43

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Garrett Grayson					270	420	4006	32	7	64.3%	27	6.0%	8.6
Nick Stevens	6'3, 190	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8356	15	25	136	1	0	60.0%	0	0.0%	5.4
Craig Leonard	6'4, 225	Jr.	NR	0.7500
Coleman Key	6'4, 220	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8382
JC Robles	6'5, 207	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8036

4. Throw the dang ball?

One assumes the pro-style Georgia identity will be strong. Not only did Bobo come to town, he brought former UGA offensive line coach Will Friend to serve as offensive coordinator.

What that means for 2015 remains to be seen. With Murray in 2013, Georgia ran just 55 percent of the time on standard downs; with Murray gone and long-serving backup Hutson Mason taking over in 2014 (with Todd Gurley and/or Nick Chubb in the backfield), it meant running 67 percent of the time on such downs.

If personnel dictates run-pass rates, it bears mentioning that CSU returns a ridiculously productive trio of receivers. Not only does All-American Rashard Higgins return, so does the duo of Joe Hansley and Xavier Williams, which produced 65 catches and and 9.3 yards per target. If tight end Kivon Cartwright is able to return to full speed following an ankle injury, that will give CSU's quarterback a superfecta of weapons that no other mid-major offense can match.

Higgins is a stunning athlete to watch -- his ability to find open spaces downfield despite double-coverage (in his last eight games of 2014, he averaged 8.5 catches and 168 yards per game) was incredible -- but his complementary pieces assure defenses can't focus only on him.

So ... who's that quarterback going to be? Grayson is NFL-bound after producing at a high level. Is sophomore Nick Stevens, once graded a mid-three-star prospect by the 247Sports Composite, ready to take on a Murray level of responsibility? Will Bobo and Friend choose to lean a bit on the run game until Stevens is able to flourish?

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Dee Hart	RB					194	1275	16	6.6	7.0	43.8%	5	4
Treyous Jarrells	RB	5'7, 185	Sr.	NR	0.7000	87	450	6	5.2	3.4	44.8%	0	0
Jasen Oden Jr.	RB	5'11, 218	Sr.	NR	NR	46	276	2	6.0	8.7	32.6%	0	0
Dalyn Dawkins (Purdue)	RB	5'9, 180	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8375	32	115	0	3.6	2.7	31.3%	N/A	N/A
Garrett Grayson	QB					30	138	0	4.6	3.0	46.7%	9	1
Deron Thompson	RB	5'10, 175	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8322	24	86	0	3.6	5.9	29.2%	1	0
Joe Hansley	WR	5'10, 180	Sr.	NR	0.7783	7	13	0	1.9	6.5	14.3%	0	0
Bryce Peters	RB	5'11, 205	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8000
Johnathan Lewis	RB	5'11, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893
Isaiah Matthews	RB	6'0, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8174
Olabisi Johnson	RB	6'0, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8073

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Rashard Higgins	WR	6'2, 188	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8256	131	96	1750	73.3%	30.8%	65.6%	13.4	617	13.4	273.7
Joe Hansley	WR	5'10, 180	Sr.	NR	0.7783	55	35	540	63.6%	12.9%	49.1%	9.8	116	10.0	84.5
Kivon Cartwright (2013)	TE	6'4, 245	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7667	54	27	462	50.0%	11.8%	68.0%	8.6	88	8.0	46.6
Xavier Williams	WR	6'4, 213	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	49	30	430	61.2%	11.5%	44.9%	8.8	64	8.8	67.3
Charles Lovett	WR					45	28	490	62.2%	10.6%	62.2%	10.9	149	10.6	76.6
Steven Walker	HB	6'2, 238	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956	38	30	279	78.9%	8.9%	65.8%	7.3	-71	7.2	43.6
Dee Hart	RB					27	18	189	66.7%	6.3%	59.3%	7.0	-27	7.0	29.6
Treyous Jarrells	RB	5'7, 185	Sr.	NR	0.7000	18	11	92	61.1%	4.2%	66.7%	5.1	-42	4.7	14.4
Elroy Masters, Jr.	WR	6'2, 210	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7933	17	10	156	58.8%	4.0%	52.9%	9.2	33	9.5	24.4
Jordon Vaden	WR	6'3, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8301	11	5	42	45.5%	2.6%	63.6%	3.8	-23	3.7	6.6
Deionte Gaines	WR	5'8, 175	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8449	10	9	69	90.0%	2.3%	50.0%	6.9	-34	6.3	10.8
Nolan Peralta	TE	6'3, 245	Jr.	NR	0.7000	6	4	37	66.7%	1.4%	66.7%	6.2	-11	5.9	5.8
Jasen Oden Jr.	RB	5'11, 218	Sr.	NR	NR	6	3	17	50.0%	1.4%	50.0%	2.8	-21	3.3	2.7
Jordan White	TE	6'4, 230	Jr.	NR	NR	2	2	16	100.0%	0.5%	100.0%	8.0	-7	N/A	2.5
Sammie Long IV	WR	6'3, 195	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8410	2	1	6	50.0%	0.5%	0.0%	3.0	-7	N/A	0.9
Christian Montes	TE	6'4, 260	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926
Danny Nwosu	HB	6'3, 250	Jr.	NR	0.7868
John Freismuth	WR	6'4, 205	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7726

5. Options big and small

Hansley is on the smaller side for a college receiver, Higgins is medium, and Williams is large. Leading returning running back Treyous Jarrells is 5'7, 185, and fellow senior back Jasen Oden goes 218. (Strangely, Jarrells' explosiveness numbers were non-existent, while Oden showed serious jets with an inefficiency problem.) CSU's skill position players come in all shapes and sizes.

Efficiency is the big question mark. A new quarterback is going to struggle to match Grayson's 64 percent completion rate, and of the primary rushing candidates (Jarrells, Oden, Purdue transfer Dalyn Dawkins, Deron Thompson), only Jarrells managed a decent Opportunity Rate (percentage of carries gaining at least five yards).

The big plays will be there, but you need to keep the chains moving as well. The line should help -- it returns three starters and five with starting experience.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	103	3.12	3.64	41.5%	67.7%	18.8%	104.2	4.9%	7.9%
Rank	62	41	36	35	63	60	61	72	75

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Ty Sambrailo	LT					41	2014 1st All-MWC
Fred Zerblis	RG	6'3, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	13
Sam Carlson	RT	6'4, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593	13
Mason Myers	LG					12
Kevin O'Brien	C	6'3, 295	Sr.	NR	NR	10
Nick Callender	LG	6'5, 327	Jr.	NR	0.7000	3
Jake Bennett	C	6'3, 295	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7993	3
Jordan Finley	OL	6'3, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593	0
Trae Moxley	LT	6'5, 300	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7998	0
Zack Golditch	RT	6'6, 290	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7685	0
Blake Nowland	OL	6'6, 310	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8231	0
Colby Meeks	OL	6'4, 300	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8008

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.77	24	IsoPPP+	104.7	54
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	41.7%	73	Succ. Rt. +	97.5	79
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.1	109	Off. FP+	94.0	123
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.3	57	Redzone S&P+	90.2	104
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.1		ACTUAL	19.0	-3.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	87	64	87	54
RUSHING	98	82	103	66
PASSING	57	51	61	42
Standard Downs		73	93	49
Passing Downs		57	58	69

Q1 Rk	97	1st Down Rk	85
Q2 Rk	55	2nd Down Rk	93
Q3 Rk	106	3rd Down Rk	73
Q4 Rk	102

6. Bend, then get broken

Snaring Summers from UCF was a nice opening gambit for Bobo. But it was only one of many steps. The Rams' defense was fine at pulling a bend-don't-break routine against lesser offenses, but against more talented units, it was bend-then-break.

It started with run defense. CSU had minimal disruptive presence in the backfield, which meant that while opponents weren't breaking off huge gains -- CSU ranked in the middle of the pack in 10-plus-yard plays allowed (69th), 20-plus (70th), etc. -- they were consistently able to stay out of passing downs. Size doesn't appear to be any sort of issue, but CSU lacked speed up front.

The inability to knock opponents off-schedule appeared to catch up to CSU as games elapsed. The Rams ranked 97th in Q1 S&P+ and 55th in Q2, then fell to 106th in Q3 and 102nd in Q4. Of course, against good offenses, there was no wasting time. Utah scored 21 points in the first quarter, and Boise State had 30 at halftime.

CSU needed weapons it didn't have. We'll see if experience, a new coordinator, and some intriguing young options can help.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	90.1	3.11	3.66	37.5%	72.0%	11.8%	67.0	2.0%	6.0%
Rank	104	89	99	47	95	128	112	120	90

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Terry Jackson	DT	6'2, 280	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8167	13	31.5	4.1%	5.0	1.5	0	0	0	0
LaRyan King	NT					13	29.0	3.8%	2.0	0.5	0	1	1	0
Joe Kawulok	DE	6'6, 260	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8414	13	25.0	3.3%	5.5	3.5	0	1	0	0
Justin Hansen	NT	6'5, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8225	13	20.5	2.7%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Josh Lovingood	DT	6'4, 290	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7833	12	18.5	2.4%	0.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Johnny Schupp	DT	6'5, 275	Jr.	NR	0.7000	13	7.0	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Martavius Foster	DE	6'4, 270	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8093	12	6.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Darnell Thompson	DT	6'4, 271	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8316
Richard King	DE	6'5, 250	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8200
O'Shea Jackson	DT	6'1, 275	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7600

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Aaron Davis	WLB					13	90.0	11.8%	6.5	0.0	1	5	1	0
Max Morgan	MLB					13	79.0	10.4%	3.5	1.0	1	2	0	0
Cory James	SLB	6'1, 240	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593	13	40.5	5.3%	8.5	6.5	0	1	1	0
SteveO Michel	BUCK	6'1, 230	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7444	13	21.5	2.8%	4.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Kevin Davis	WLB	6'3, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8127	11	18.0	2.4%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Deonte Clyburn	MLB	6'1, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7519	13	15.0	2.0%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Nu'uvali Fa'apito	WLB	6'0, 228	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593	11	13.5	1.8%	0.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Kiel Robinson	SLB	6'2, 225	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7894	13	6.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ken Hulbert	MLB					13	4.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Bryan Ohene-Gyeni	BUCK	6'1, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	11	4.0	0.5%	1.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Pierre Copeland II	LB	6'2, 205	So.	NR	NR	6	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Evan Colorito	BUCK	6'4, 235	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8186
Josh Watson	LB	6'2, 235	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7833
Deshon Mayes	LB	6'3, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7933

7. Get into the backfield

CSU ranked 112th in Adj. Sack Rate and 128th, dead last in FBS, in Stuff Rate (run stops at or behind the line). With no fear of negative plays, opponents were able to dictate possessions, and it randomly bit the Rams. Not only did Boise State and Utah put up huge numbers, San Jose State, Wyoming, and Nevada were able to engage in shootouts before falling.

A pass rush built around linebacker Cory James and end Joe Kawulok seems to have a little bit of promise, but while those two combined for 10 sacks in 2014, they also combined for just four non-sack tackles for loss, meaning they didn't do much against the run. In fact, only two players in the front seven managed more than 2.5 non-sack TFLs, and one (linebacker Aaron Davis, with 6.5) is gone.

There is plenty of experience in the front seven -- the top three returning tacklers on the line are seniors, and the top five returning linebackers are juniors and seniors -- but they got experience on a defense that wasn't very good. Might exciting, three-star youngsters like sophomore tackle Darnell Thopmson, freshman end Richard King, sophomore linebacker Evan Colorito, and JUCO linebacker Deshon Mayes have an opportunity to usurp some upperclassmen?

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kevin Pierre-Louis	FS	6'1, 215	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7859	12	68.0	8.9%	3	1	0	1	0	0
Preston Hodges	FS	5'11, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7667	13	55.5	7.3%	3	0	1	7	2	0
Trent Matthews	SS	6'3, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7667	13	42.0	5.5%	1	0	3	8	0	0
Tyree Simmons	CB	5'11, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759	12	34.5	4.5%	2	0	3	5	0	0
Bernard Blake	CB					13	32.0	4.2%	3	0	1	11	1	0
DeAndre Elliott	CB	6'1, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593	12	26.5	3.5%	2	0	2	6	0	0
Nick Januska	SS	6'2, 210	Sr.	NR	0.7200	10	13.0	1.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kevin Nutt Jr.	CB	5'10, 186	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7948	12	10.0	1.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Shun Johnson	CB	5'11, 170	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7519	10	9.5	1.3%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Justin Sweet	DB	5'10, 187	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7966	9	8.0	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Willie Udofia	FS	6'1, 197	Sr.	NR	NR	12	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Henrie	DB	5'9, 175	Jr.	NR	NR	7	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jake Schlager	S	6'0, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7794
Preston Hodges	DB	5'11, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7667
Marcus Wilson	CB	5'10, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7583
Trey Smith	CB	6'0, 185	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7659
Braylin Scott	DB	6'3, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8256

8. A potentially awesome secondary

That CSU ranked 51st in Passing S&P+ despite minimal pass rush and a bad run defense says quite a bit about a secondary that returns almost everybody. The one loss (disruptive cornerback Bernard Blake) hurts, but he's still the only one.

Last year's top four safeties are back, including two (Preston Hodges and Trent Matthews) who combined for four tackles for loss, four tackles, and 15 pass breakups. Four of the top five corners are back, as well. If the secondary gets any help whatsoever from the front seven, it could shine, especially if exciting youngsters like sophomore Shun Johnson continue to develop.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Hayden Hunt	5'11, 210	Jr.	51	43.8	4	8	14	43.1%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Jared Roberts			80	63.3	38	0	47.5%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jared Roberts			57-58	6-9	66.7%	6-11	54.5%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Deionte Gaines	KR	5'8, 175	So.	27	24.9	0
Jasen Oden Jr.	KR	5'11, 218	Sr.	4	11.5	0
Dee Hart	PR			9	4.6	0
Joe Hansley	PR	5'10, 180	Sr.	6	9.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	27
Field Goal Efficiency	26
Punt Return Efficiency	102
Kick Return Efficiency	59
Punt Efficiency	41
Kickoff Efficiency	5
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	37

9. Missing a leg

CSU's special teams ratings were all over the map, from fifth in kickoffs to 102nd in punt returns and everywhere in between.

That punter Hayden Hunt returns is a good thing, and Delonte Gaines has all sorts of potential as a kick returner, but CSU's two highest ratings came in kickoffs and place-kicking, and Jared Roberts was responsible for both. His departure will make it tough for CSU to pull off another top-30 special teams ranking.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rk
5-Sep	Savannah State	NR
12-Sep	Minnesota	37
19-Sep	vs. Colorado	83
26-Sep	at UTSA	109
3-Oct	at Utah State	52
10-Oct	Boise State	21
17-Oct	Air Force	48
31-Oct	San Diego State	76
7-Nov	at Wyoming	113
14-Nov	UNLV	118
21-Nov	at New Mexico	94
28-Nov	at Fresno State	102

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-23.4% (103)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	89 / 87
2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	2 / -0.8
2014 TO Luck/Game	+1.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (6, 7)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	8.8 (1.2)

10. Should we assume a drop-off?

Colorado State's offense was simply awesome, its best since 2005, and while the Rams must replace Grayson and Hart, the receiving corps is fantastic, the line should be solid, and there is potential at quarterback.

It's hard to say CSU can maintain last season's levels, but between the returnees and Bobo's prowess, you could make the case that the Rams will only regress a bit on that side of the ball.

You could also assert that any offensive regression might be offset by defensive improvement. The D won't be good, but experience, a good secondary, and a potentially strong coordinator could result in an upward turn.

Is it possible CSU could lose its head coach, a potential NFL quarterback, and a running back good enough to go pro early ... but still remain a top-50 team? Obviously coaching changes always blur expectations, but I like Bobo, and while I think CSU won't be quite as strong as Boise State and Utah State, the drop-off could be minimal.