The big 2015 Air Force football guide: What comes after a shocking turnaround?

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1. Surprises are fun

This is, and will always be, a really hard job. When Troy Calhoun took over in 2007, he re-energized a program. But that energy has dissipated, and after losing a tremendous defensive coordinator in Tim DeRuyter, Calhoun just hasn't been able to figure out ways to stem regression.

In 2014, Air Force's offense should be competent, the defense should improve a little bit, and the schedule will feature six opponents projected 100th or worse. I would be shocked if the win total didn't improve a little.

But Air Force itself ranked 113th last year, and improvement might not get the Falcons out of the triple digits. There will be a rebound, but it's hard to envision bowl contention.

-- The big 2014 Air Force football preview

Air Force wasn't lucky and didn't take advantage of tons of opponent mistakes (Boise State game aside). The Falcons were reasonably healthy, sure, but there were still injuries. They did go 3-1 in one-possession games, but the one loss was less likely than any of the wins.

There was no smoke, and there were no mirrors. Air Force was simply an excellent, top-50 caliber team in 2014, against significant odds.

I have no idea how that happened, and I love it.

Surprises are good. Too many surprises mean you're not paying close enough attention, but college football has a fun way of backhanding you when you think you know what's going on.

Think of all the ways a team could improve from 114th in the F/+ rankings to 48th in a single season. A new coach came aboard, or at least new coordinators. There was a talent influx of some sort, either through recruiting or players returning from injuries. And there had to be a high number of starters returning.

These three only loosely apply. Steve Russ moved from defensive co-coordinator to coordinator, and Troy Calhoun did bring in a couple of experienced position coaches (Ron Vanderlinden at inside linebackers, Tim Cross at defensive line). Kale Pearson, 2012's starting quarterback, did return. And the defense did return nine starters.

But the Falcons also had to replace major components of their running game (the leading rusher and seven of 10 from the offensive line two-deep), and almost none of the returning defenders had hinted at major upside.

From 114th to 48th! From five spots behind Army to five spots ahead of Texas! Air Force lost by 22 points to Boise State in 2013 and won by 14 in 2014. The Falcons lost by 45 to Colorado State in 2013 and won by three in 2014. They lost by 20 to UNLV in 2013 and won by 27 in 2014. They lost by 18 to Navy in 2013 and won by nine in 2014.

Against a schedule nearly identical in difficulty, they went from losing 10 to winning 10.

2. So ... what now?

As I end up saying a lot, hard jobs remain hard. There is no corner to turn at Air Force, where extra wins don't lead to blue-chip recruiting, wins begetting more wins. Air Force still isn't about to start redshirting players or signing 315-pound hosses at defensive tackle. And thanks in part to the lack of redshirts and typically high turnover, Air Force will always start a large number of juniors and seniors and therefore face lower-than-average returning starter figures.

The offense must replace its starting quarterback and three more offensive linemen. The defense that broke through in spectacular fashion loses seven starters.

But if you're of an optimistic bent, you can find reason to think Air Force will again be a top-75 team. You can point to quarterback Nate Romine, who held his own as a freshman and has two years remaining. You can note that virtually every primary ball-carrier is back, including a 1,000-yard rusher in Jacobi Owens and the rare 800-yard receiver in Jalen Robinette.

You could also note that the band remained together on the defensive coaching staff -- the new blood so instrumental in massive improvement returns. There's nothing saying they won't be able to find new pieces for their suddenly sound unit.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-3 | Adj. Record: 9-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 48
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	Nicholls State	NR	44-16	W	63%	7.6	100%
6-Sep	at Wyoming	113	13-17	L	20%	-19.8	38%
13-Sep	at Georgia State	122	48-38	W	43%	-3.9	93%
27-Sep	Boise State	21	28-14	W	82%	21.7	89%
4-Oct	Navy	44	30-21	W	78%	18.3	94%
11-Oct	at Utah State	52	16-34	L	8%	-33.5	0%
18-Oct	New Mexico	94	35-31	W	55%	3.1	86%
1-Nov	at Army	121	23-6	W	78%	17.9	100%
8-Nov	at UNLV	118	48-21	W	67%	10.3	98%
15-Nov	Nevada	64	45-38	W	56%	3.4	74%
21-Nov	at San Diego State	76	14-30	L	26%	-15.2	9%
28-Nov	Colorado State	49	27-24	W	74%	15.1	82%
20-Dec	vs. Western Michigan	56	38-24	W	69%	11.8	73%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	29.8	58	27.6	60
Points Per Game	31.5	51	24.2	34

3. Solid, then better

There were duds, to be sure. Air Force couldn't figure out how to move the ball against Craig Bohl's Wyoming defense (4.5 yards per play, 13 points). Utah State's Darell Garretson completed 20 of 29 passes for 298 yards in a rout in Logan. And SDSU's Quinn Kaehler was allowed to complete passes of 50, 45, 35, 32, and 25 yards in a late-season win over the Falcons. There was little glory in any of the three losses or the shouldn't-have-been-a-shootout win over Georgia State.

The other nine games? Air Force performed at the 55th percentile (top-60 or so) in each and at the 63rd or higher (~top 50) in seven. The Falcons picked off five passes, forced two fumbles and recovered both in a 14-point win over eventual Fiesta Bowl champion Boise State. They leveraged field position beautifully and beat Colorado State on a last-second field goal. Aside from Boise State's win over CSU, those were the only conference losses either suffered in 2014.

Perhaps most encouragingly, four of Air Force's six best performances came in the last six games. They whipped WMU in the Potato Bowl and handled Army and UNLV as a good team should. This was a decent team out of the gates and a very good team late. Granted, late-season success matters more when the reasons for that success return the next year. Still, confidence can make a difference going forward.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.80	95	IsoPPP+	95.0	79
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.8%	37	Succ. Rt. +	95.1	88
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.4	37	Def. FP+	99.0	77
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.9	21	Redzone S&P+	105.2	54
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.9		ACTUAL	17	+1.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	55	78	78	79
RUSHING	7	101	91	107
PASSING	119	18	57	7
Standard Downs		77	77	82
Passing Downs		92	110	84

Q1 Rk	80	1st Down Rk	99
Q2 Rk	48	2nd Down Rk	84
Q3 Rk	97	3rd Down Rk	80
Q4 Rk	116

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Kale Pearson					101	171	1590	14	3	59.1%	10	5.5%	8.4
Nate Romine	5'11, 198	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7667	14	30	208	0	1	46.7%	2	6.3%	6.3
Karson Roberts	6'0, 185	Sr.	NR	0.7400
Jalen Lacy	6'3, 215	Jr.	NR	NR

4. Pearson was ... better at passing than running?

When you see that an Air Force team won 10 games, your first reaction is probably "Damn, that option offense must have dominated!"

In terms of S&P+, Navy's offense has graded out better than its defense in nine of 10 seasons, Georgia Tech's has done so for six straight years, Army's has for four straight years, and Air Force's has for five straight years. The Air Force offense did have the upper hand last fall, but barely: the Falcons ranked 58th in Off. S&P+ and 60th in Def. S&P+.

But 58th isn't third (like Georgia Tech in 2014) or 26th (like Navy). The Air Force offense was far from dominant, and to the extent that it succeeded, it came in goal line execution and ... passing?

Air Force ranked 101st in Rushing S&P+; the Falcons were as run-heavy as ever (84 percent on standard downs, 61 percent on passing downs, 98 percent with a comfortable lead), but they weren't good at it. Jacobi Owens showed some nice explosiveness in the open field, but a) he was just about the only explosive one, and b) he didn't get into the open field often.

Air Force bailed itself out with its rare, lethal passing game. Kale Pearson completed nearly 60 percent and took sacks once per 18 attempts, not bad considering the verticality of the passing game (15.7 yards per completion). He threw three interceptions, and each of his three primary targets (Jalen Robinette, Garrett Brown, and tight end Garrett Griffin) averaged at least 10.7 yards per target. Robinette had at least 70 receiving yards in six games, a remarkable accomplishment considering how infrequently Air Force threw.

There was a reason Pearson overtook Nate Romine for the starting job, and it didn't have much to do with his ability to run the option (though his rushing numbers were also better than Romine's). He was remarkably successful throwing, and it kept Air Force out of the trouble an inefficient run game should have gotten them into.

Now we'll see how much regression there is with Romine resuming the starting job. That he averaged 7.9 yards per pass with only one interception in 2013, as a freshman, is encouraging.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Jacobi Owens	TB	5'11, 190	Jr.	NR	NR	204	1054	5	5.2	5.0	35.8%	3	2
Kale Pearson	QB					161	765	6	4.8	4.5	39.1%	5	3
Shayne Davern	FB	5'11, 245	Jr.	NR	NR	112	517	8	4.6	3.8	33.0%	1	1
D.J. Johnson	FB	5'9, 227	Jr.	NR	NR	80	326	8	4.1	2.3	33.8%	1	1
Devin Rushing	TB	5'10, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8014	70	350	3	5.0	3.4	37.1%	2	1
Garrett Brown	WR	5'9, 175	Sr.	NR	NR	36	195	1	5.4	4.8	50.0%	2	1
Nate Romine	QB	5'11, 198	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7667	33	101	1	3.1	2.9	27.3%	1	1
Broam Hart	RB					31	117	1	3.8	1.3	32.3%	1	1
Paco Solano	TB	5'11, 210	Sr.	NR	NR	13	58	1	4.5	5.5	30.8%	0	0
Colton Huntsman	WR					7	101	0	14.4	11.4	85.7%	0	0
Jon Lee	RB					6	39	0	6.5	10.5	50.0%	1	1
Colby Stewart	RB	5'10, 188	So.	NR	NR
William Backenstoe	FB	6'1, 220	So.	NR	NR
Jacob Lacoste	RB	5'10, 198	So.	NR	0.7000

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Jalen Robinette	WR	6'3, 220	Jr.	NR	NR	73	43	806	58.9%	36.7%	54.8%	11.0	277	11.1	110.8
Garrett Brown	WR	5'9, 175	Sr.	NR	NR	50	36	535	72.0%	25.1%	56.0%	10.7	109	10.8	73.6
Garrett Griffin	TE	6'4, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	27	16	307	59.3%	13.6%	63.0%	11.4	110	11.6	42.2
Alex Ludowig	WR	5'11, 170	Sr.	NR	NR	15	5	64	33.3%	7.5%	46.7%	4.3	-7	4.6	8.8
Jacobi Owens	RB	5'11, 190	Jr.	NR	NR	9	4	8	44.4%	4.5%	66.7%	0.9	-44	0.8	1.1
Marcus Hendricks	TE					7	1	18	14.3%	3.5%	71.4%	2.6	-2	3.8	2.5
Matt Galland	WR	5'10, 185	Sr.	NR	NR	3	2	37	66.7%	1.5%	66.7%	12.3	13	10.7	5.1
Jon Lee	RB					3	2	12	66.7%	1.5%	33.3%	4.0	-12	5.1	1.6
Cody Apfel	WR	6'2, 190	Sr.	NR	NR	3	1	9	33.3%	1.5%	0.0%	3.0	-5	NR	1.2
Shayne Davern	FB	5'11, 245	Jr.	NR	NR	3	1	3	33.3%	1.5%	66.7%	1.0	-11	1.3	0.4
Devin Rushing	TB	5'10, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8014	2	2	20	100.0%	1.0%	50.0%	10.0	-3	10.3	2.7
Myles Barnes	WR	6'5, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	2	2	16	100.0%	1.0%	100.0%	8.0	-7	NR	2.2
Kale Pearson	QB					1	1	41	100.0%	0.5%	0.0%	41.0	30	NR	5.6
Colton Huntsman	WR					1	1	17	100.0%	0.5%	100.0%	17.0	6	NR	2.3
Nelson Onwuzu	WR	5'11, 175	Sr.	NR	NR
Josh Self	TE	6'2, 225	Jr.	NR	NR
Tyler Williams	WR	5'9, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7900

5. All the ball carriers are back

Romine will have virtually all of Pearson's skill weapons at his disposal, too. Robinette is on pace to become one of Air Force's most successful receivers ever; he gained 291 yards at 10.8 yards per target as a freshman, he erupted last year, and he's got two more years to boost his career totals. But Garrett Brown was a lovely No. 2, and Garrett Griffin returns as well. And there's a possibility that athletic sophomore Tyler Williams becomes more involved.

Meanwhile, experience won't be an issue in the backfield. Both Owens and Rushing were semi-efficient at tailback, even if the fullbacks were never breaking anything big up the middle. Romine has yet to turn into an option maestro, but passing can stretch the defense if the ground game is still struggling.

The biggest concern might come up front. A year after replacing seven of its top 10 linemen, Air Force must replace three of its top five. That would do a number on anybody's depth. There was enough shuffling that eight players started at least one game, and five return, including two-year starting tackle Matt Rochell. But one would assume that any injuries could be destructive.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	92.7	3.17	3.17	36.8%	74.0%	16.1%	88.0	2.8%	8.8%
Rank	100	37	77	90	20	25	84	20	84

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Michael Husar, Jr.	RG					26	2014 1st All-MWC
Matt Rochell	LT	6'3, 270	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	25
Andrew Ruechel	RT	6'1, 260	Sr.	NR	NR	13
Patrick Noyes	LG					12
David Jones	C					6
Colin Sandor	LG	6'1, 275	Jr.	NR	0.7333	4
Sevrin Remmo	LT	6'3, 240	Sr.	NR	NR	3
Allen Caunitz	RT	6'4, 245	Jr.	NR	NR	1
Luke Brantley	RT	6'4, 250	Sr.	NR	NR	0
Alexander Norton	C	6'2, 288	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7667	0
Jordan Tyler	C	6'1, 239	So.	NR	NR	0

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.95	112	IsoPPP+	112.1	37
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	35.7%	13	Succ. Rt. +	116.9	18
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.4	35	Off. FP+	100.0	65
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.1	36	Redzone S&P+	127.4	7
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.4		ACTUAL	18.0	+1.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	62	23	15	37
RUSHING	28	6	5	14
PASSING	105	60	75	56
Standard Downs		13	5	31
Passing Downs		60	82	47

Q1 Rk	48	1st Down Rk	42
Q2 Rk	15	2nd Down Rk	40
Q3 Rk	16	3rd Down Rk	57
Q4 Rk	90

6. Out. Of. Nowhere.

Compare and contrast:

Category	2013 Rk	2014 Rk
IsoPPP+	40	37
SR+	123	18
Off. FP+	116	65
Redzone S&P+	123	7
Rushing S&P+	109	6
Passing S&P+	120	60
Std. Downs S&P+	120	13
Pass. Downs S&P+	115	60
Adj. Line Yards	111	20
Adj. Sack Rate	110	61

Improvement like that isn't supposed to be possible, especially when you aren't calling on any major reserve of athleticism. When Steve Russ vowed to be more tactically aggressive, it wasn't supposed to work like this. But it did. Give Russ a raise. And Cross and Vanderlinden, too.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	114.4	2.62	3.27	28.9%	58.1%	20.8%	102.4	7.1%	7.0%
Rank	20	30	68	2	15	45	61	22	72

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Alex Hansen	DE	6'3, 260	Sr.	NR	NR	13	39.5	6.0%	10.0	3.5	0	3	0	0
Nick Fitzgerald	DE					13	20.5	3.1%	6.0	2.0	0	1	1	0
Troy Timmerman	NG					13	20.0	3.0%	5.5	4.5	0	0	1	0
David Harris	NG	6'0, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	12	12.5	1.9%	3.5	2.5	0	0	0	0
Ryan Watson	DE	6'3, 240	Jr.	NR	NR	12	11.0	1.7%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Dillon Beschel	DE					13	9.0	1.4%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Riley Cannon	DE					13	6.5	1.0%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Robert Green	DL					5	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Lochlin Deeks	NG	6'3, 270	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7900
Samuel Byers	DL	6'5, 257	Jr.	NR	NR
Santo Coppola	DE	6'4, 235	So.	NR	NR

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jordan Pierce	ILB					13	89.0	13.5%	19.5	7.0	2	1	0	0
Connor Healy	ILB	6'0, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	13	67.0	10.2%	5.5	3.0	0	0	2	0
Spencer Proctor	OLB					13	38.5	5.9%	10.5	4.0	0	0	1	0
Dexter Walker	OLB	6'0, 205	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	12	36.5	5.5%	3.5	1.0	0	2	1	1
Jacob Onyechi	OLB	6'1, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7667	12	11.5	1.7%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Donnie Wharton	LB					7	3.5	0.5%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Patrick Healy	ILB	6'0, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7656	11	3.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Claude Alexander	ILB	6'1, 220	Jr.	NR	NR	13	3.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Joey Nichol	ILB					4	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Haji Dunn, Jr.	LB	6'2, 240	Jr.	NR	NR	3	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Grant Ross	LB	6'1, 212	So.	NR	NR	6	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
John Flor	LB	6'1, 214	So.	NR	NR

7. Lots of playmakers to replace

That Jordan Pierce went from four tackles for loss to 19.5, Alex Hansen went from two to 10, and Spencer Proctor went from five to 10.5 obviously had a lot to do with scheme, instruction, and tactics, not simple personal improvement. So if Russ and company were able to engineer such individual improvement last year, they could do it again with new players this year.

Still ... losing two linebackers reponsible for 30 tackles for loss is suboptimal, as is losing five of your top eight defensive linemen. Air Force went from having one of the 20 worst run defenses in the country to having one of the 10 best; that wasn't just scheme and coaching.

So let's assume regression. Just how much regression will depend on the development of some exciting youngsters. Nose guard David Harris is a potential playmaker, and a trio of new linemen in the rotation (particularly former three-star junior Lochlin Deeks, who was academically ineligible last year) showed upside this spring. But linebackers like Jacob Onyechi, Patrick Healy, and perhaps Haji Dunn or Grant Ross will be asked to do significant damage.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Christian Spears	FS					13	66.5	10.1%	1.5	0	1	6	1	0
Weston Steelhammer	SS	6'2, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7733	13	51.5	7.8%	6	3	6	2	0	0
Jordan Mays	CB					13	43.0	6.5%	2	0	0	6	0	0
Justin DeCoud	CB					13	36.5	5.5%	1.5	1	0	7	1	0
Gavin McHenry	CB	6'0, 180	Sr.	NR	0.7600	13	28.5	4.3%	0.5	0	1	5	0	1
Jamal Byrd	FS					10	12.5	1.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Roland Ladipo	CB	5'10, 185	Jr.	NR	NR	13	7.5	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kalon Baker	DB	6'0, 180	Sr.	NR	NR	10	5.5	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Hayes Linn	FS	6'0, 175	Jr.	NR	NR	13	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jesse Washington	DB	6'0, 180	Jr.	NR	0.7800
Tyler Weaver	DB	6'1, 200	Jr.	NR	NR
Jayce Webster	DB	5'9, 155	So.	NR	NR

8. Athletes? Check. Experience? Ehhh...

By all accounts, players like Roland Lapido and Jesse Washington should be ready for larger roles, especially from an athleticism standpoint. But aside from breakdowns against SDSU and Utah State, an experienced secondary, anchored by two active safeties and two steady corners, was mostly able to take advantage of the pass-first tendencies opponents had to adopt in the face of a rough run D.

But safety Christian Spears and corners Jordan Mays and Justin DeCoud are gone, and Gavin McHenry is not in good standing as a cadet.

That leaves awesomely named ballhawk Weston Steelhammer* and a lot of players taking on larger roles. That's scary. Not only could Air Force's play-making up front see regression, the secondary might not be as well-equipped to take advantage of harried quarterbacks.

* Like Romine and Robinette, Steelhammer saw action as a freshman in 2013; like Robinette, he then erupted as a sophomore. If Air Force's newfound success is sustained, the freshmen of 2013 will have played a program-altering role.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Will Conant			61	43.6	9	15	21	59.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Drew Oehrle	6'0, 160	Sr.	78	62.5	39	2	50.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Will Conant			45-46	16-17	94.1%	3-4	75.0%
Drew Oehrle	6'0, 160	Sr.	1-1	0-1	0.0%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Jon Lee	KR			22	23.2	0
Paco Solano	KR	5'11, 210	Sr.	3	26.0	0
Garrett Brown	PR	5'9, 175	Sr.	10	5.0	0
Jalen Robinette	PR	6'3, 220	Jr.	3	2.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	14
Field Goal Efficiency	5
Punt Return Efficiency	37
Kick Return Efficiency	72
Punt Efficiency	45
Kickoff Efficiency	50
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	50

9. Losing Conant hurts

Despite inefficiency issues on offense, Air Force's field position game was strong; the Falcons ranked 33rd in field position margin at plus-3.0 yards per possession. They also averaged 4.9 points per scoring opportunity. Special teams played prevalent roles in both of those successes. The punting and coverage units were solid, and while punt returner Garrett Brown didn't break long returns, he was able to both field punts (preventing them from bouncing a while longer) and consistently get a few yards on returns.

The biggest asset came in the place-kicking department, where Will Conant was nearly automatic inside of 40 yards and was strong outside of 40, too. In two years, he was 9-for-12 on longer field goals, and he all but assured Air Force of at least a few points in each scoring opportunity.

A lot of special teams pieces return, but Conant doesn't, and that's alarming.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rk
5-Sep	Morgan State	NR
12-Sep	San Jose State	116
19-Sep	at Michigan State	11
3-Oct	at Navy	44
10-Oct	Wyoming	113
17-Oct	at Colorado State	49
24-Oct	Fresno State	102
31-Oct	at Hawaii	111
7-Nov	Army	121
14-Nov	Utah State	52
20-Nov	at Boise State	21
28-Nov	at New Mexico	94

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-13.2% (83)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	124 / 121
2014 TO MargiNRdj. TO Margin*	1 / 0.6
2014 TO Luck/Game	+0.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	11 (7, 4)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	9.4 (0.6)

10. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I wrote last year that Troy Calhoun "probably has 12 to 24 more games to figure out how to engineer a rebound." To say the least, he figured it out, and his reward was a healthy contract extension.

What happens next is a complete mystery. When you lose 10 games one year, then win 10 the next, it's hard to imagine a proceeding result that would shock. What happens now that the defense has lost a lot of last year's play-makers and any sort of new-coach effect has dissipated?

If there's good news, it's that the schedule provides a cushion. Air Force probably won't be a top-50 team again, but the Falcons aren't many breaks away from still playing at a top-75 level, and they face seven teams that ranked 94th or worse last year. But a brutal road slate -- at Michigan State, at Navy, at Colorado State, at Boise State, at New Mexico -- should keep the win total from going too far beyond the six-win barrier.

No matter what, Air Force's sudden change was stunning. I was all but writing Calhoun's coaching eulogy, and now I'm talking about tough road games meaning Calhoun might not crack 10 wins. I applaud that no matter what comes next.