The big 2015 Boise State football guide: Ready to make a run at 14-0

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1. If Boise State was ever gone ...

... Boise State is back.

Even in their lowest point in eight seasons, the 8-5 season of 2013, the Broncos were still one of the eight best mid-major teams in FBS. Still, 50th is a far cry from the No. 3 and No. 4 F/+ rankings they managed in 2010 and 2011.

BSU fell, however briefly, from power to mid-major power. And when head coach Chris Petersen left to take the Washington head coaching position, you could glean that an era was ending in Boise.

Technically, Boise State wasn't an elite team in 2014, so if you look at the bar set in the Kellen Moore era, you can't really say they're already back. But with an absurdly young team, young head coach Bryan Harsin, and a mostly young coaching staff, Boise State bounced back significantly, finishing 12-2, winning the Mountain West, snaring a Fiesta Bowl bid and beating Arizona. They surged back to 21st in the F/+ rankings, second in the mid-major universe behind a No. 17 Marshall that has quite a few pieces to replace.

And now Boise State returns almost everybody: the top three wideouts, all of the tight ends, every offensive linemen (including two all-conference performers), all but one defensive lineman (plus two potential starters who missed 2014 with injury), the top four linebackers, five of the top six safeties (plus another 2014 absentee), and both starting cornerbacks. And they sign one of the best mid-major recruiting classes every year; this February saw no exception.

Yes, there are questions to answer at both quarterback and running back. Yes, Boise State is a couple of well-placed linebacker injuries away from dipping into a pool of freshmen. Yes, offensive coordinator Mike Sanford got plucked away by Notre Dame.

But no other mid-major can come close to matching Boise State's depth and potential, especially on defense.

A crazy-young team got better on both sides and returns most of the reasons. Boise State probably isn't going to be 2010-good, but I'll be surprised if the Broncos aren't a top-15 team. Either the Boise era continues, or a new one just began.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 12-2 | Adj. Record: 11-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 21
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
28-Aug	vs. Ole Miss	5	13-35	L	18%	-21.1	0%
6-Sep	Colorado State	49	37-24	W	96%	41.8	100%
13-Sep	at Connecticut	119	38-21	W	75%	15.8	99%
20-Sep	UL-Lafayette	72	34-9	W	96%	41.8	100%
27-Sep	at Air Force	48	14-28	L	37%	-7.8	11%
4-Oct	at Nevada	64	51-46	W	72%	13.8	84%
17-Oct	Fresno State	102	37-27	W	70%	12.1	91%
24-Oct	BYU	46	55-30	W	97%	43.8	100%
8-Nov	at New Mexico	94	60-49	W	50%	-0.3	61%
15-Nov	San Diego State	76	38-29	W	71%	13.2	68%
22-Nov	at Wyoming	113	63-14	W	92%	32.5	100%
29-Nov	Utah State	52	50-19	W	99%	52.2	100%
6-Dec	Fresno State	102	28-14	W	87%	26.6	100%
31-Dec	vs. Arizona	28	38-30	W	75%	15.6	84%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	39.3	13	23.9	38
Points Per Game	39.7	9	26.8	64

2. From top-50 to top-25

The low points were low enough that, despite six performances at an 87th-percentile level or higher, Boise State only ranked 21st overall in F/+. The Broncos trailed, 7-6, after three quarters against Ole Miss before falling apart. A few weeks later against Air Force, Boise quarterbacks lost their minds, throwing five interceptions in an upset loss. And the defense had few answers for New Mexico's potent option attack, allowing 49 points and 627 yards in a win.

None of those performances were befitting of a top-25 team. The other 11 were. And with the two biggest duds coming early, the Broncos took on the look of an improving team.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 5 games): 64% (record: 3-2)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 5 games): 72% (record: 5-0)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 5 games): 88% (record: 4-0)

The offense was good but got better after September, averaging at least 5.9 yards per play in eight of the final nine games. And after allowing 9.7 yards per play to New Mexico, the Broncos allowed 4.5 per play over the final five games, 4.6 in the Fiesta Bowl. Injuries knocked the defense around, but it responded when it had to. That's one of many positive signs for 2015.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.97	15	IsoPPP+	137.4	7
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	46.8%	22	Succ. Rt. +	118.7	16
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.4	64	Def. FP+	102.0	44
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	5.1	9	Redzone S&P+	128.6	7
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.3		ACTUAL	24	+3.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	14	11	16	7
RUSHING	31	12	20	9
PASSING	24	11	19	10
Standard Downs		6	12	3
Passing Downs		32	40	35

Q1 Rk	13	1st Down Rk	36
Q2 Rk	13	2nd Down Rk	14
Q3 Rk	67	3rd Down Rk	28
Q4 Rk	53

3. From Stanford-Boise to Auburn-Boise

Mike Sanford's résumé was rather spectacular when he landed in Boise last year. After serving as a Boise State quarterback through 2004, Sanford was a graduate assistant at UNLV (under his father, now the head coach at Indiana State) and Stanford under Jim Harbaugh, then joined David Shaw's Stanford staff in 2011.

The hire of Sanford as his offensive coordinator was the clearest signal of Harsin's intentions; first, he was trying to build a Harbaugh-at-Stanford type of staff, full of young, hungry guys. Second, he was pulling in a bit of Stanford influence. Boise State brought plenty of spread elements to the table in 2014, but the Broncos were physical and balanced, riding Jay Ajayi nearly 25 times per game while mixing in both horizontal passes (usually to Shane Williams-Rhodes, with his absurd 90 percent catch rate) and vertical ones.

It was a wonderfully conceived offense, and it worked consistently. The balance was such that defenses had no idea what to attack on standard downs, and the Broncos ripped off all sorts of big plays. Quarterback Grant Hedrick was a bit mistake-prone on passing downs, and Boise didn't have an elite offense when falling behind schedule, but the Broncos rarely fell behind schedule.

With Sanford heading to South Bend, Harsin handed the reins to tight ends coach Eliah Drinkwitz. Drinkwitz pulls from different influences. He was an assistant coach at Springdale High School in Arkansas, Gus Malzahn's old stomping grounds, from 2006-09. He landed on Auburn's coaching staff as a graduate assistant under then-offensive coordinator Malzahn. He became Malzahn's running backs coach at Arkansas State, then stayed in Jonesboro in 2013 when Harsin replaced Malzahn.

Arkansas State's 2013 offense was similar in intent to Boise State's in 2014. The Red Wolves ran the ball even more than the Broncos (66 percent on standard downs, 39 percent on passing downs) but did a similar job of mixing between-the-tackles running with zone read, horizontal passes (with J.D. McKissic and his 80 percent catch rate playing the role of Williams-Rhodes), and the occasional deep shot. Aesthetically, it was a spread offense, but it was a damned physical one.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Grant Hedrick					294	415	3696	23	14	70.8%	26	5.9%	8.0
Ryan Finley	6'4, 199	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8600	12	27	161	2	1	44.4%	2	6.9%	4.7
Thomas Stuart	5'11, 193	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000
Alex Ogle	6'3, 213	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8006
Brett Rypien	6'2, 197	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9044

4. Potential red flag: quarterback

[Update: Ryan Finley has been named the starter.]

The Broncos are overflowing with experience at most positions, and where they aren't, they have high-ceiling candidates. The receiving corps returns Williams-Rhodes and WR-H backup Jeremy McNichols (combined: 89 percent catch rate), deep threats Thomas Sperbeck and Chaz Anderson (combined: 18.6 yards per catch), and tight end Jake Roh, a former star recruit who broke out as a freshman. Former go-to receiver Matt Miller was lost with injury after five games, and Boise State's offense didn't even miss him much.

Meanwhile, every lineman returns from a unit that ranked 41st in Adj. Line yards, 29th in Adj. Sack Rate, and sixth in Power Success Rate. With you or I at quarterback, Boise State would still have a top-100 offense because of these pieces.

With that in mind, let's focus on a couple of potential weaknesses.

Grant Hedrick's interception rate (3.4 percent) was a little bit higher than one would prefer, even if nearly one-third came in one game (Air Force). Still, he completed 71 percent at 12.6 yards per completion, a strong combination, and not including sacks, he was good for about nine carries and 55 rushing yards per game. BSU's offense hummed with him in charge.

Last year's backup, Ryan Finley, struggled in limited action; with Hedrick losing his mind against Air Force, Finley came in and completed 12 of 25 for 161 yards and an interception of his own. Then again, he was a freshman, and he was facing an aggressive Air Force defense. With a full offseason to prepare, he might be just fine.

And if he isn't, Hedrick and Drinkwitz can call on mobile Tommy Stuart, redshirt freshman Alex Ogle, or Brett Rypien, a four-star freshman with a pedigree (he's the nephew of a Super Bowl champion).

The odds of one of these QBs turning out well are high, but you never know that one will actually play well until he actually does.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Jay Ajayi	RB					347	1823	28	5.3	5.8	36.3%	7	4
Grant Hedrick	QB					129	767	8	5.9	5.1	45.7%	3	1
Devan Demas	RB	5'8, 179	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8556	25	173	2	6.9	11.6	32.0%	2	1
Jeremy McNichols	WR-H	5'9, 198	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7859	17	159	1	9.4	5.6	76.5%	0	0
Shane Williams-Rhodes	WR-H	5'6, 168	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8457	15	179	0	11.9	10.3	73.3%	1	1
Jack Fields	RB	5'9, 201	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8491	11	31	0	2.8	2.4	27.3%	1	1
Charles Bertoli	RB					9	24	0	2.7	1.9	22.2%	1	0
Ryan Finley	QB	6'4, 199	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8600	5	57	0	11.4	15.3	60.0%	0	0
Cory Young	RB	5'10, 194	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8492
Kelsey Young (Stanford)	RB	5'10, 190	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9236	66	331	0	5.02

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Shane Williams-Rhodes	WR-H	5'6, 168	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8457	76	68	585	89.5%	18.1%	63.2%	7.7	-193	7.6	83.7
Thomas Sperbeck	WR-X	6'0, 176	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8135	70	51	883	72.9%	16.7%	55.7%	12.6	280	12.7	126.3
Jay Ajayi	RB					56	50	535	89.3%	13.3%	57.1%	9.6	-37	9.6	76.5
Jake Roh	TE	6'3, 219	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8435	51	35	408	68.6%	12.1%	62.7%	8.0	-10	8.2	58.4
Chaz Anderson	WR-Z	5'10, 181	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8714	45	21	456	46.7%	10.7%	62.2%	10.1	184	9.9	65.2
Matt Miller	WR					40	28	461	70.0%	9.5%	57.5%	11.5	128	11.5	65.9
Dallas Burroughs	WR-Z					28	14	119	50.0%	6.7%	46.4%	4.3	-59	4.1	17.0
Jeremy McNichols	WR-H	5'9, 198	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7859	17	15	149	88.2%	4.0%	64.7%	8.8	-23	8.6	21.3
Troy Ware	WR-X	6'2, 191	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8282	14	12	150	85.7%	3.3%	71.4%	10.7	12	9.6	21.4
Holden Huff	TE	6'6, 222	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7667	14	11	139	78.6%	3.3%	71.4%	9.9	11	9.7	19.9
D.J. Dean	WR	6'1, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7900
Chase Blakley	TE	6'4, 234	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.7811
A.J. Richardson	WR	6'0, 209	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8407
Sean Modster	WR	5'11, 186	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7967
David Lucero	TE	6'5, 227	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8358
Akilian Butler	WR	5'10, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8544
Matt Pistone	TE	6'4, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8504
Bryan Jefferson	WR	6'1, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8254

5. Potential red flag: running back

The line will block well for any runner, but we don't know that any running back will do well until he proves it.

But wow, the potential. Devan Demas was a lightning-bolt backup for Ajayi; he wasn't particularly efficient, but he was unstoppable in the open field. Like Ajayi, he had some fumble issues -- he fumbled twice in 25 carries in 2014, and his spring fumbleitis prevented him from winning the starting job. Now, Stanford transfer Kelsey Young comes in to provide help.

If Demas doesn't seize control in fall camp, then the job might go to McNichols, a career backup like Jack Fields (who has averaged just 3 yards per carry) or a youngster like redshirt freshman Cory Young or freshman Raymond Sheard [Sheard was arrested and won't join the team]. Both have great recruiting profiles, but they haven't carried in a real game yet.

Blocking will assure BSU of a decent running game, but there could still be a stark drop-off if none of these becomes reliable.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	107.5	3.06	3.39	40.5%	78.8%	20.1%	131.6	3.7%	5.9%
Rank	41	50	55	50	6	76	29	39	39

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Marcus Henry	C	6'3, 296	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8392	27	2014 1st All-MWC
Rees Odhiambo	LT	6'4, 303	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8067	17	2014 2nd All-MWC
Travis Averill	LG	6'3, 302	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8722	17
Mario Yakoo	RG	6'4, 327	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8148	14
Steven Baggett	RT	6'3, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8227	14
Archie Lewis	RG	6'3, 281	So.	NR	NR	5
Eli McCullough	LT	6'5, 292	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8292	1
Jerhen Ertel	RT	6'6, 282	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8048	0
Kellen Buhr	LG	6'1, 295	Jr.	NR	NR	0
Andrew Tercek	LG	6'1, 277	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8435	0
Mason Hampton	C	6'3, 284	So.	NR	NR	0
Troy Bacon	OL	6'3, 272	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8476
Tennessee Su'esu'e	OL	6'1, 307	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8189
Eric Quevedo	OL	6'5, 280	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8200
John Molchon	OL	6'6, 275	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8180
Garrett Larson	OL	6'5, 275	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8081

Defense

Jim Rogash, Getty

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.96	116	IsoPPP+	108.7	47
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	34.8%	8	Succ. Rt. +	119.6	15
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.2	68	Off. FP+	105.1	18
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.3	55	Redzone S&P+	118.5	19
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	25.4		ACTUAL	31.0	+5.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	49	30	24	47
RUSHING	36	30	11	71
PASSING	76	33	50	26
Standard Downs		42	24	68
Passing Downs		14	25	14

Q1 Rk	52	1st Down Rk	27
Q2 Rk	46	2nd Down Rk	57
Q3 Rk	6	3rd Down Rk	28
Q4 Rk	60

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	115	2.51	3.14	32.8%	58.2%	24.4%	137.1	8.1%	10.7%
Rank	19	16	47	14	18	12	12	7	17

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kamalei Correa	STUD	6'3, 244	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8442	14	49.5	6.5%	19.0	12.0	0	2	2	0
Beau Martin	DE					14	31.0	4.1%	12.0	5.5	1	2	1	0
Tyler Horn (2013)	DE	6'5, 272	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8000	12	29.5	3.6%	5.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Armand Nance	NT	6'0, 311	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115	14	27.5	3.6%	6.0	2.5	0	0	1	0
Gabe Perez	STUD	6'4, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8445	14	24.5	3.2%	7.5	3.5	0	2	0	0
Sam McCaskill	DT	6'3, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	14	19.5	2.6%	4.0	2.5	0	1	0	0
Justin Taimatuia (2013)	NT	6'0, 297	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8314	13	19.0	2.3%	2.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Elliot Hoyte	DT	6'4, 271	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7583	14	12.0	1.6%	4.0	3.5	0	0	0	0
Antoine Turner	DT	6'1, 274	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8200	13	10.0	1.3%	1.5	0.0	0	2	0	0
Robert Ash	NT	6'3, 278	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8478	12	4.5	0.6%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Rondell McNair	DE	6'2, 244	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8307	8	4.0	0.5%	2.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Tutulupeatau Mataele	DT	6'3, 303	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8133
Jabril Frazier	STUD	6'4, 240	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8414
Kaleb Hill	DE	6'1, 222	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8116
David Moa	DE	6'3, 266	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8091
Matt Locher	DE	6'3, 250	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8222
Sam Whitney	DE	6'3, 235	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8081

6. Don't waste your time running

Opponents figured it out quickly: unless you're New Mexico, leaning on the run isn't going to do much against Boise State.

The Broncos had a bit of a big-play issue -- while they allowed only 52 rushes of 10-plus yards (25th in the country), 10 of those went for 40-plus (119th) -- but for most opponents, aiming for a big play on the ground wasn't worth it when a vast majority of carries went three or fewer yards. Opponents threw more frequently than the national average on both standard and passing downs, and that wasn't just because they were behind on the scoreboard.

That BSU was efficient against the run is impressive considering the Broncos were missing both Tyler Horn and Justin Taimatuia. Each was a key member of the defensive rotation, but both missed 2014 with injuries.

Both Horn and Taimatuia are back, as is every lineman not named Beau Martin. Kamalei Correa was a (forgive me) stud at the STUD (hybrid DE/OLB) position, and with Horn manning the end position Martin left open, this should be one of the toughest, most experienced fronts in college football. The line was an underrated reason for the Broncos' success in the 2009-11 window, and this might be as good as any BSU has had.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tanner Vallejo	MLB	6'1, 226	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8594	14	81.0	10.7%	15.5	3.0	1	4	0	1
Ben Weaver	WLB	6'0, 231	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8681	13	51.5	6.8%	3.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Tyler Gray	SLB	6'4, 229	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.7000	14	47.5	6.3%	5.5	2.0	2	7	3	0
Joe Martarano	MLB	6'3, 229	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8463	14	32.0	4.2%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Blake Renaud	MLB					13	29.5	3.9%	6.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Mat Boesen	LB					8	11.5	1.5%	3.0	3.0	0	1	0	0
Darren Lee	LB	6'1, 234	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7667	14	11.5	1.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Leighton Vander Esch	LB	6'4, 222	RSFr.	NR	NR
Drew Berger	LB	6'1, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8548
Marquis Hendrix	LB	6'1, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115
Riley Whimpey	LB	6'2, 205	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8033

7. Potential red flag: linebackers

The return of last year's top four 'backers probably means BSU will be just fine. Tanner Vallejo is one of the best run-defending LBs in FBS, and Tyler Gray is strong against the pass. Ben Weaver battled injury and still managed a few disruptve plays, and former star recruit Joe Martarano is just waiting his turn.

The second string is going to be awfully green. As high as the staff is on redshirt freshman/baby giraffe Leighton Vander Esch, and as impressive as the trio of incoming three-star linebackers might be, a top-10 team rarely gets away with playing freshmen at linebacker. Two linebacker injuries could undo a lot of a great defensive line's work.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Darian Thompson	S	6'2, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8256	13	60.5	8.0%	5	0	7	1	0	0
Corey Bell	NB					14	46.5	6.1%	3	1	0	4	0	0
Donte Deayon	CB	5'9, 150	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8600	12	39.5	5.2%	2	1	6	9	1	0
Mercy Maston (2013)	NB	5'11, 203	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8549	13	36.0	4.3%	1	0	0	3	0	0
Chanceller James	S	6'2, 214	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8453	10	30.5	4.0%	2	0	0	0	0	0
Jonathan Moxey	CB	5'10, 187	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7959	14	29.5	3.9%	0	0	1	7	1	0
Cleshawn Page	CB					11	23.0	3.0%	1	0	2	7	1	0
Dylan Sumner-Gardner	S	6'1, 193	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9607	13	14.0	1.8%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Dillon Lukehart	S	6'1, 208	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7876	9	10.0	1.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cameron Hartsfield	NB	5'10, 186	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7678	14	7.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jeremy Ioane	S					6	7.0	0.9%	0	0	2	1	0	0
Bryan Douglas	CB					9	6.0	0.8%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Raymond Ford	CB	5'10, 171	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8000
Kameron Miles	NB	6'1, 208	So.	NR	0.8561
Evan Tyler	S	6'2, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8451
Ladarryl Blair	CB	5'11, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8432
Damion Wright	S	6'1, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8417
Donzale Roddie	CB	5'11, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8404
Tyler Horton	CB	6'1, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8289
Darreon Jackson	S	6'1, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8184

8. Beyond loaded

There's one more potential red flag here: pass efficiency. Boise State's pass rush was awesome, and the secondary did a nice job of preventing big plays (fourth quarter against Ole Miss aside), but BSU's success rates weren't fantastic.

Pardon me, though, if I can't worry. The return of nickel back Mercy Maston, who also missed 2013 with injury, gives the Broncos three likely senior starters, and the backups have as much upside as any mid-major backups in the country.

Four-star safety Dylan Sumner-Gardner barely saw the field last year because of the guys ahead of him, and he'll be battling for playing time with high-upside JUCO transfers Raymond Ford and Kameron Miles and any of six incoming three-star freshmen. With ballhawk Darian Thompson and scrappy corners Donte Deayon and Jonathan Moxey leading the way and a host of hungry youngsters backing them up, this unit will likely make plenty of plays.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Sean Wale	6'2, 186	Jr.	66	42.0	5	30	20	75.8%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Dan Goodale			103	63.2	65	2	63.1%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Dan Goodale			67-70	13-14	92.9%	3-7	42.9%
Tyler Rausa	5'9, 192	Jr.	1-1	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Jeremy McNichols	KR	5'9, 198	So.	19	20.7	0
Dallas Burroughs	KR			17	20.4	0
Shane Williams-Rhodes	PR	5'6, 168	Sr.	18	8.5	0
Donte Deayon	PR	5'9, 150	Sr.	9	10.2	1

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	75
Field Goal Efficiency	68
Punt Return Efficiency	71
Kick Return Efficiency	127
Punt Efficiency	31
Kickoff Efficiency	46
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	111

9. Hooray, it's an odd-numbered year!

A tidbit from last year's BSU preview:

We know all about the key kicks the Broncos missed in the 2010-12 window, but beyond that, they ranked first in Special Teams F/+ in 2011, third in 2013, and 10th in 2009 ... and 52nd in 2012 and 56th in 2010. Even-numbered years apparently aren't kind to this unit.

Sure enough, despite decent experience, BSU's special teams regressed to 75th, mostly because of non-existent kick returns, inconsistent punt returns, and only decent place-kicking. The loss of kicker Dan Goodale (strong on kickoffs) and the lack of guaranteed improvement in the return game mean there aren't any guarantees that BSU special teams will improve this fall ... but it is an odd-numbered year, so ...

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rk
4-Sep	Washington	58
12-Sep	at BYU	46
18-Sep	Idaho State	NR
25-Sep	at Virginia	39
3-Oct	Hawaii	111
10-Oct	at Colorado State	49
16-Oct	at Utah State	52
24-Oct	Wyoming	113
31-Oct	at UNLV	118
14-Nov	New Mexico	94
20-Nov	Air Force	48
27-Nov	at San Jose State	116

Five-Year F/+ Rk	35.4% (11)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	62 / 69
2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	7 / 5.1
2014 TO Luck/Game	+0.7
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	16 (8, 9)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	11.0 (1.0)

10. Survive the games in Utah

Brian Losness, USA Today

The five best mid-major receiving corps, offensive lines, defensive lines, linebacking corps, and secondaries might each include Boise State's. The Broncos might have the No. 1 in at least two of the five.

This is a loaded team, and I can't wait to see it in action. Quarterback and running back are obvious concerns, but between the depth of candidates and the ace coaching staff, I can't make myself worry. Ryan Finley will likely be fine at QB, and whichever running back can hold onto the ball will see big holes thanks to the line (and a defense distracted by the receivers).

Boise State has every right to start as a top-15 team in the preseason polls. From a stat perspective, the Broncos are far and away the safest mid-major bet.

The question isn't whether they'll be good, it's whether they'll be undefeated. With a slate that features six teams that ranked 58th or better, BSU won't get penalized for strength of schedule* by the Playoff committee, which also chooses which non-power team goes to a New Year's Six bowl.

But BSU's chances of going undefeated will likely come down to two trips to Utah. They visit BYU in a Week 2 matchup I can't wait to see, then they face Utah State. Lose that one, and it's possible the Broncos don't even win the MWC Mountain at 11-1. USU is strong enough to do the deed, but BSU will still be a solid favorite, as it will be in every game this year.

* I'm talking about being penalized when it comes to the mid-major bowl slot. A 13-0 Boise State team will absolutely be penalized by the committee and its know-it-when-you-see-it approach to strength of schedule. Even if Boise State is a top-five team on paper, the committee isn't going to give it the time of day as a Playoff contender. And yes, it makes me sad to type that.

This is going to be the best Boise State team in a few years, and thanks in part to CBS Sports and a loaded slate of SIX Friday night games, you'll get to watch a lot of it.