The big 2015 Houston football guide: Emulating Ohio State could pay off

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1. High standards

If you're going to fire a guy who went 8-5 in back-to-back seasons, you better stick the landing. You better have somebody in mind, and you better get him.

Mack Rhoades just took over as Missouri's athletic director, but one of his last acts as Houston's A.D. was both difficult and successful. He dumped head coach Tony Levine before the Cougars' appearance in their eighth bowl in 10 years and a week later nailed down the services of Tom Herman, Ohio State's offensive coordinator and the award winner for best assistant in the country.

Houston went 21-17 over the last three seasons, but Levine's first year was marred by the loss of a ton from a 2011 squad that had gone 13-1 under Kevin Sumlin. The Cougars were due a few steps backwards and went 5-7, then rebounded. They flirted with the AAC title in 2013 before a late fade, and they saw a massive regression in luck in finishing 8-5 again in 2014.

Houston won more than eight games just three times in the 20-plus years since the Andre Ware era, with two of those in the three years before Levine took over. After starting 1991 ranked 12th in the preseason polls and crumbling to 4-7, they didn't emerge again as a viable threat until Art Briles showed up more than a decade later. Briles' success -- 6-6 in 2005, 10-4 in 2006, 8-5 in 2007 -- set the table for Sumlin, who went 10-4 in 2009 and 13-1 in 2011; UH reached seventh in 2011 and threatened for a BCS bid until an upset loss in the Conference USA title game.

Briles and Sumlin raised the bar, but Levine couldn't live up. A 7-1 start in 2013 turned into a 1-4 finish, and a 7-5 campaign in 2014 was marred by infuriating home losses, first to UTSA by 20 points (in the Cougars' debut at sparkly new TDECU Stadium, no less), then to Tulane.

Levine's firing was a surprise, but when Houston landed Herman, everything made sense. Herman was given a budget good enough to lock down an impressive staff, one that includes offensive coordinator Major Applewhite and defensive coordinator Todd Orlando.

2. Luck revisited

Going by averages, Houston's turnover margin should have been somewhere in the neighborhood of plus-3 or plus-4 last season. It was plus-25. The difference works out to about eight points per game.

Pick your adverb. Houston was absurdly, insanely, hilariously, incomprehensibly lucky.

-- The big 2014 Houston football preview

In 2013, Houston broke the model. The Cougars' turnover numbers -- they recovered 63 percent of all fumbles, 31 percent of their passes defensed (interceptions plus break-ups) were picks (the national average hovers around 22 percent), and 11 percent of their opponents' passes defensed were picks -- were so far out of whack that it was hard to know how to even interpret it. These skewed numbers didn't result in more wins (they went 1-3 in one-possession games), but it prevented them from getting blown out and made them look closer than they were to being an AAC contender.

The turnover numbers were so interesting that Steven Godfrey went to Houston to chat about turnovers last fall.

[Defensive coordinator David] Gibbs has a theory that tempo offenses sacrifice two tenets of old-school football logic when it comes to turnovers:

1. Maximizing the skill players with the best hands. Spread teams often rotate skill players during a drive. [...]

2. The lack of attention given to turnovers in hurry-up practice schedules. Gibbs took a full year off after being let go by the Texans in 2011 and toured college campuses to scout systems before joining the Cougars. [...]

There can be a downside. The emphasis on ball-stripping, no matter how technically sound, allows for additional yardage. That's why Houston ignores total yardage, because a 65-yard drive that ends with a fumble recovery is better than a 45-yard drive that ends with a field goal.

Putting an emphasis on aggressive plays while showing a willingness to give up the occasional big play is rather logical. If you have a defense that is fast enough to make risks pay off, and if you have an offense good enough to keep up on the scoreboard, this approach can work.

But stripping ball-carriers and confusing quarterbacks isn't the same as forcing turnovers. They can create more turnover opportunities, but your fumble recovery rates are still going to regress toward 50 percent over time, and if your ratio of interceptions to break-ups is a bit too high, it's going to regress as well.

That's what we saw in 2014. With the same defensive mindset and the same focus on turnovers, Houston's turnover margin shrank to plus-8; the Cougars recovered 20 of 41 fumbles (49 percent), and while their INT-to-PBU ratio remained high (31 percent of their passes defensed were interceptions), opponents held onto interceptions (29 percent of opponents' passes defensed were interceptions). Quarterback John O'Korn managed just a 2.2 percent interception rate as a freshman, but it more than doubled to 4.6 percent, and he finished 2014 on the bench.

Gibbs' turnover-friendly approach still worked out for him: Levine was fired, but Gibbs got a promotion to Texas Tech defensive coordinator.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 5-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 73
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
29-Aug	UTSA	109	7-27	L	1%	-55.5	0%
6-Sep	Grambling State	NR	47-0	W	68%	11.0	100%
11-Sep	at BYU	46	25-33	L	35%	-8.8	34%
20-Sep	UNLV	118	47-14	W	55%	3.0	98%
2-Oct	Central Florida	60	12-17	L	24%	-16.8	14%
11-Oct	at Memphis	41	28-24	W	54%	2.6	54%
17-Oct	Temple	67	31-10	W	70%	12.5	94%
1-Nov	at South Florida	123	27-3	W	81%	20.1	100%
8-Nov	Tulane	93	24-31	L	6%	-35.6	8%
22-Nov	Tulsa	117	38-28	W	29%	-12.6	84%
28-Nov	at SMU	127	35-9	W	41%	-5.3	99%
6-Dec	at Cincinnati	47	31-38	L	30%	-12.0	24%
2-Jan	vs. Pittsburgh	43	35-34	W	46%	-2.5	53%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	23.1	98	28.9	70
Points Per Game	29.8	60	20.6	15

3. A well-timed slide

When you slide from 35th in the F/+ rankings to 73rd and go 2-4 in one-possession games, you can expect your overall record to slide, too. That it didn't for Houston tells you all you need to know about the Cougars' schedule. Seven games against teams that ranked 90th or worse in the F/+ rankings gave them a nice cushion for bowl eligibility.

Immediately following the season-opening dud against UTSA, Houston was a pretty good team, one good enough to take down eventual conference champion Memphis on the road, thump Temple and USF, and nearly beat BYU in Provo. The Cougars fell apart down the stretch, but so did the schedule.

• Average Percentile Performance (Games 2-8): 55% (record: 5-2)
• Average Percentile Performance (Games 9-13): 30% (record: 3-2)

Playing at the 55th percentile is playing like a top-60 team; the 30th percentile is a top-90 level. But before the finale at Cincinnati, four consecutive opponents ranked 93rd or worse. And a thrilling comeback against Pitt in the Armed Forces Bowl gave them the same record they had in 2013 despite the regression.

Administration wasn't fooled. Wins aside, this was not a good team, and a coaching change was probably warranted.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.82	81	IsoPPP+	93.5	84
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	41.3%	68	Succ. Rt. +	93.7	94
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.2	75	Def. FP+	100.0	65
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.3	80	Redzone S&P+	92.6	87
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.0		ACTUAL	22	+3.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	58	88	87	84
RUSHING	44	48	59	40
PASSING	65	110	109	112
Standard Downs		71	76	68
Passing Downs		107	99	105

Q1 Rk	95	1st Down Rk	63
Q2 Rk	112	2nd Down Rk	59
Q3 Rk	45	3rd Down Rk	62
Q4 Rk	10

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Greg Ward Jr.	5'11, 178	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8423	177	263	2010	12	7	67.3%	21	7.4%	6.6
John O'Korn					90	173	951	6	8	52.0%	11	6.0%	4.8
Billy Cosh					5	9	32	0	0	55.6%	0	0.0%	3.6
Bear Fenimore	6'1, 222	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8038
Adam Schulz (Utah)	6'2, 210	Sr.	NR	NR

4. An exciting (and light) lump of clay

Despite endless injuries, Ohio State quarterbacks produced at an incredibly high level over the last two years. With Tom Herman as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, four Buckeye signal callers (Braxton Miller and Kenny Guiton in 2013, J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones in 2014) completed 64 percent for 6,540 yards, threw for 80 touchdowns to 21 interceptions, averaged 7.5 yards per throw (including sacks), and rushed for 3,099 non-sack yards and 30 touchdowns.

Four quarterbacks, 6,000-plus passing yards, 3,000-plus rushing yards, 110 touchdowns. In two years! Remember when a 2,000/1,000 season was the sign of a great dual-threat quarterback? With Herman calling the shots, Ohio State QBs pulled off 50 percent more than that.

With that in mind, look at Greg Ward Jr.'s stats from 2014. Ward spent the first month as a receiver before taking over at quarterback*, so if you project his nine-game QB totals over 13 games, you get something like 2,900 passing yards, 17 touchdown passes, 10 interceptions, and 1,034 rushing yards. You think Herman can work with that?

Granted, Ward did most of his damage in three games. His passer rating was over 175 against Temple, Tulsa, and Pitt. Against everybody else, his completion rate was 63 percent with six touchdowns and seven interceptions. Still, Temple might have had the best defense he faced last year, and his legs (80-plus rushing yards in four games) made him a threat even when the pass wasn't working. Herman liked what he saw from Ward this spring, and he will enter fall camp as the favorite.

Of course, Ohio State's quarterback injuries weren't all because of bad luck; Herman quarterbacks take a lot of hits, and Ward is listed at 178 pounds. Herman has mentioned that he will try to get Ward up to at least 185 by fall, but that is still slight. The odds are good that the backups will be involved. Can Adam Schulz (a Utah starter in 2013 when Travis Wilson got hurt) or Bear Fenimore maintain?

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Kenneth Farrow	RB	5'10, 218	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8432	186	1037	14	5.6	6.1	39.8%	1	1
Ryan Jackson	RB	5'10, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8392	112	610	5	5.4	6.9	39.3%	2	0
Greg Ward Jr.	QB	5'11, 178	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8423	97	716	6	7.4	8.6	46.4%	4	3
John O'Korn	QB					21	80	1	3.8	2.4	38.1%	2	0
Javin Webb	RB	5'8, 175	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8026	19	133	1	7.0	9.9	36.8%	0	0
Randall Hollimon	RB					10	41	0	4.1	0.9	40.0%	0	0
Daniel Spencer	WR					5	36	1	7.2	28.1	20.0%	0	0
Kaliq Kokuma	RB	6'0, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8238
Tyreik Gray	RB	5'11, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8787
Kevrin Justice	RB	5'11, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8159

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Deontay Greenberry	WR-Y					132	72	841	54.5%	30.9%	57.6%	6.4	-59	6.4	82.8
Markeith Ambles	WR-X					50	32	539	64.0%	11.7%	68.0%	10.8	152	11.0	53.1
Demarcus Ayers	WR-X	5'10, 178	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8498	48	33	335	68.8%	11.2%	58.3%	7.0	-59	7.0	33.0
Daniel Spencer	WR-H					44	24	236	54.5%	10.3%	50.0%	5.4	-64	5.4	23.2
Wayne Beadle	WR-H					33	27	242	81.8%	7.7%	57.6%	7.3	-71	7.3	23.8
Ryan Jackson	RB	5'10, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8392	31	25	199	80.6%	7.3%	54.8%	6.4	-92	6.4	19.6
Steven Dunbar	WR-Z	6'2, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893	30	20	286	66.7%	7.0%	73.3%	9.5	46	9.4	28.1
Greg Ward Jr.	QB/WR	5'11, 178	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8423	29	15	139	51.7%	6.8%	44.8%	4.8	-51	5.1	13.7
Kenneth Farrow	RB	5'10, 218	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8432	24	20	149	83.3%	5.6%	50.0%	6.2	-82	6.1	14.7
Hayden Daniels	TE	6'4, 215	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7800
Derek McLemore	WR-H	5'10, 185	So.	NR	NR
Donald Gage	WR	5'11, 181	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8368
Elton Dyer	WR	6'2, 182	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8244
Latrell Martin	WR	6'1, 200	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8267
Romello Brooker	WR-Z	6'4, 210	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8038
Isaiah Johnson	WR	6'3, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8176
Chance Allen (Oregon)	WR	6'2, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8463
Rusty Clark	TE	6'7, 250	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7794
Terry Mark	WR	6'1, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8497

5. Loaded backfield, unknown receiving corps

Herman's Ohio State attacks were run-first units that used a dual-threat quarterback and a workhorse running back. Buckeye backs averaged about 28 carries per game in 2013-14, and Houston backs should be more than capable.

Seniors Kenneth Farrow and Ryan Jackson averaged about 25 carries and 127 yards per game; both were reasonably efficient and quite explosive. And if one of them gets hurt or tired, there are exciting backups to call on, from sophomore Javin Webb to redshirt freshman Kaliq Kokuma to true freshmen Tyreik Gray and Kevrin Justice. With Ward at the helm of the option, this is a big-play running attack waiting to happen.

That's good because the big plays might be hard to come by in the passing game, at least if 2014 is any indication. Only one returning wideout (Demarcus Ayers) had more than 20 catches, and he averaged barely 10 yards per. Steven Dunbar did average more than 14 yards per catch as a freshman, but he caught just 20 passes, and in terms of known weapons, that's pretty much it. There are plenty of untested three-star options, and if the run is strong enough, there could be plenty of play-action potential.

(Oregon transfer Chance Allen came back to Houston to be closer to his ailing mother, but with the NCAA cracking down on hardship waivers, he probably won't be eligible until 2016.)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	94.9	2.88	2.66	40.4%	66.7%	22.0%	77.8	5.0%	10.8%
Rank	92	77	111	52	66	104	109	74	111

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Rowdy Harper	RG					52	2014 1st All-AAC
Bryce Redman	C					33
Ben Dew	LG	6'4, 315	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	13
Alex Cooper	RT	6'4, 297	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	13
Travis Cross	LT					12
Zach Johnson	RT	6'6, 295	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7556	11
Damien Parris	RG	6'6, 290	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8351	1
Marcus Oliver	LT	6'3, 270	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8042	0
Emeka Okafor	LG					0
Mac Long	C	6'4, 285	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8463	0
Josh Thomas	RT	6'6, 315	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8462	0
Carter Wall	OL	6'4, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8610	0
Darius Joiner	OL	6'4, 285	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7993
Kameron Eloph	OL	6'4, 285	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8503
Josh Jones	OL	6'6, 280	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8472

6. What to make of the line?

The offensive line is a mix of experienced former two-star recruits (2014 starters Ben Dew and Alex Cooper and 2013 starter Zach Johnson) and untested former three-stars. It was good at creating downfield opportunities for its runners (52nd in Opportunity Rate) but sprang too many leaks to be successful (104th in Stuff Rate, 109th in Adj. Sack Rate).

Now it must replace three starters, including all-conference guard Rowdy Harper. Line coach Derek Warehime will be tested, though the quality of the backfield will do the line some favors.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.74	11	IsoPPP+	98.7	70
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.1%	77	Succ. Rt. +	85.1	120
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.4	64	Off. FP+	98.0	88
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.8	23	Redzone S&P+	79.6	126
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.9		ACTUAL	30.0	+5.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	20	95	115	70
RUSHING	37	103	115	91
PASSING	28	77	107	62
Standard Downs		100	117	79
Passing Downs		85	109	67

Q1 Rk	71	1st Down Rk	62
Q2 Rk	82	2nd Down Rk	64
Q3 Rk	107	3rd Down Rk	77
Q4 Rk	49

7. A hell of a DC hire

David Gibbs' defense was excellent at creating turnover opportunities. It was also woefully inefficient. And now it must replace its starting line and two of its three best linebackers.

It wouldn't be smart to expect too much improvement, but Herman made an inspiring hire in Todd Orlando.

Orlando is still a pretty young guy, but he boasts a decade of coordinator experience, first at UConn, then FIU, then Utah State. His six UConn defenses ranked 51st or better in Def. S&P+ (four in the top 40), his first FIU defense ranked 57th (best ever for FIU), and despite turnover, his two USU defense ranked fifth and 32nd. He usually finds results in his first year, and his aggressive 3-4 scheme fits with the Houston personnel he inherits. While USU made plenty of havoc plays, Orlando's focus in Year 1 will likely be efficiency, even if it comes at the expense of some TFLs and turnovers.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	86.3	3.01	3.64	36.7%	64.7%	18.3%	116	7.6%	5.2%
Rank	119	76	94	35	47	79	34	11	107

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Gavin Stansbury	DE					13	43.5	5.9%	4.0	2.5	0	0	1	0
Eric Eiland	DE					13	32.0	4.4%	3.5	0.5	1	0	0	0
Joey Mbu	DT					13	24.5	3.3%	4.5	2.5	1	4	0	0
Trevor Harris	DE					11	21.0	2.9%	6.0	3.0	0	1	0	0
B.J. Singleton	DT	6'4, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8592	13	14.5	2.0%	3.0	1.0	0	3	0	0
Jeremiah Farley	DT					13	14.5	2.0%	4.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Cameron Malveaux	DE	6'6, 270	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7819	13	10.5	1.4%	0.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Tyus Bowser	DE	6'3, 228	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8311	13	9.0	1.2%	3.5	3.0	0	0	0	0
Tomme Mark	DT	6'2, 285	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8717	12	5.5	0.7%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Nick Thurman	DT	6'4, 290	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8159	5	4.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Chauntez Jackson	DE	6'4, 265	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8463	12	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Zach Vaughan	DE	6'4, 245	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8429
Jerard Carter	DT	6'2, 265	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926
Mason Denley	DE	6'4, 270	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8260
Tyrell Thompson	DE	6'3, 255	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8222

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Efrem Oliphant	MLB					13	101.0	13.8%	8.5	3.5	2	0	1	0
Steven Taylor	SLB	6'1, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7200	12	55.5	7.6%	9.0	4.0	0	2	3	0
Derrick Mathews	MLB					6	40.5	5.5%	4.0	2.0	0	2	0	0
Matthew Adams	WLB	6'0, 208	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8308	13	31.0	4.2%	4.5	2.0	0	1	2	0
Elandon Roberts	MLB	6'0, 230	Sr.	NR	NR	12	21.5	2.9%	3.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Luke Stice	MLB	6'0, 235	Sr.	NR	NR	13	6.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Caleb Tucker	WLB					6	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
D'Juan Hines	SLB	6'2, 208	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8287	10	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ja'Von Shelley	LB	6'1, 210	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8023
D.J. Jenkins	LB	6'2, 245	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8114
Jordan Milburn	LB	6'2, 215	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956
Camden Ross	LB	6'2, 241	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926
Emeke Egbule	LB	6'3, 215	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7826

8. Major rebuild in the front seven

If you're going to move from a 4-3 to a 3-4, you might as well do it in a year when you're retooling anyway. Last year, 12 members of Houston's front seven logged at least three tackles for loss, but only five return. Linebacker Steven Taylor is a proven entity, and tackle B.J. Singleton has gotten plenty of playing time over the last two years, but the success of the new defense will hinge on newcomers or former role players like Tyus Bowser (now an OLB), Cameron Malveaux (could end up at either DE or OLB), and linebackers Matthew Adams and Elandon Roberts.

Recruiting hasn't been a major issue, and Orlando should find plenty of exciting athletes, but there is too much to replace here for any serious Year 1 improvement.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Adrian McDonald	SS	5'10, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7300	13	58.0	7.9%	0.5	0	5	2	3	1
Trevon Stewart	FS	5'9, 185	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8357	13	43.5	5.9%	2	0	3	4	0	0
Howard Wilson	CB	6'1, 176	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7906	13	37.5	5.1%	1	0	3	3	0	0
William Jackson	CB	6'1, 185	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	13	30.0	4.1%	1.5	0	2	10	1	0
Brandon Wilson	CB	6'0, 198	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8163	13	27.0	3.7%	0	0	0	1	1	0
Turon Walker	CB					13	19.0	2.6%	0	0	0	2	1	0
Steven Aikens	SS					13	14.5	2.0%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Tyler White	DB	5'10, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	13	9.5	1.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Lee Hightower	DB	6'2, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7444	6	9.0	1.2%	0.5	0	1	3	0	0
Khalil Williams	FS	6'0, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8119	7	8.0	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Earl Foster	DB	6'0, 192	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8057	11	6.0	0.8%	1	0	1	0	1	0
Garrett Davis	S	6'1, 189	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7985
Jeremy Winchester	CB	6'0, 185	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8391
Joeal Williams	CB	5'10, 180	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8030
Michael Eke	DB	6'2, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7200

9. Few worries in the secondary

If the front seven is sound, the secondary could thrive. As was the case last year, it appears pass defense will be ahead of run defense, not only because of the turnover up front but because of the return of Houston's top five DBs.

Safeties Adrian McDonald and Trevon Stewart mixed play-making (2.5 tackles for loss, eight picks, six break-ups, three forced fumbles) with play-prevention, and William Jackson is one of the stickier corners in the AAC. There were some breakdowns, especially against the run, and since Orlando is likely to take some risks up front, big plays could be a concern again. But pass defense is the least of the concerns.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Logan Piper	6'1, 200	Sr.	43	39.3	4	19	13	74.4%
Dylan Seibert			13	42.3	0	2	1	23.1%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Ty Cummings	5'10, 180	Jr.	75	61.6	21	2	28.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Kyle Bullard	5'11, 170	Sr.	42-47	10-15	66.7%	6-7	85.7%
Ty Cummings	5'10, 180	Jr.	1-1	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Demarcus Ayers	KR	5'10, 178	Jr.	34	17.4	0
Ryan Jackson	KR	5'10, 190	Sr.	3	12.7	0
Greg Ward Jr.	PR	5'11, 178	Jr.	9	7.0	0
Demarcus Ayers	PR	5'10, 178	Jr.	5	4.4	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	96
Field Goal Efficiency	87
Punt Return Efficiency	86
Kick Return Efficiency	125
Punt Efficiency	64
Kickoff Efficiency	26
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	23

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rk
5-Sep	Tennessee Tech	NR
12-Sep	at Louisville	23
26-Sep	Texas State	95
3-Oct	at Tulsa	117
8-Oct	SMU	127
16-Oct	at Tulane	93
24-Oct	at Central Florida	60
31-Oct	Vanderbilt	115
7-Nov	Cincinnati	47
14-Nov	Memphis	41
21-Nov	at Connecticut	119
27-Nov	Navy	44

Five-Year F/+ Rk	2.1% (53)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	79 / 71
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	8 / 6.0
2014 TO Luck/Game	+0.8
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	10 (5, 5)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	7.6 (0.4)

10. Better not fade late

This schedule is the opposite of last year's; Houston plays seven opponents that ranked worse than 90th in F/+, but five pop up among the season's first six games. Three of the four best come after November 1.

Considering the makeup of this team, that could be a good thing. The offense should be prolific enough to put up points against all early opponents not named Louisville, and the defense could have time to find its footing against early opponents like Tennessee Tech and Tulane. Two other early opponents, Tulsa and SMU, will be breaking in as many new pieces on offense as Houston is on defense.

If you're the optimistic type, you can talk yourself into an in-process Houston winning early and an improved Houston playing its best ball against the best opponents (all at home) late. Injuries could derail that, and there's always a chance that questionable units like offensive line, defensive line, and linebacker never gel.

But there are enough weapons at key positions (namely quarterback and running back) to be intrigued. And it's hard not to be impressed enough by Herman and his hires to assume they figure out how to win quite a few games in their first year.