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1. Still the favorite?
Some bad breaks and a road loss could doom them in the AAC title race, but make no mistake: O'Leary has built this program for the long haul. The Knights are in better shape than anybody in the league. They recruit well, they develop, they play good defense even with minimal experience, and they simply have more athleticism.
Will the Knights take a step backwards in 2014? Sure, maybe. But even if they do, they'll probably be the odds-on favorite to win the league in 2015, 2016, and beyond.
Sometimes it's not the presence of a drop-off, but the magnitude, that matters.
UCF was all but guaranteed to regress in 2014. The Knights had to replace the top quarterback in the NFL Draft (Jacksonville Jaguar Blake Bortles), an 1,100-yard rusher (Storm Johnson), and three all-conference linemen from what was probably their best-ever offense, one that averaged 6.6 yards per play and 34.6 points per game and ranked 23rd in Off. S&P+. The depth was still intriguing, but you can't lose that many difference-makers without a drop.
The defense had a chance to improve last year, and did so. But the magnitude of the offensive drop was going to be telltale.
Would the Knights' Off. S&P+ rating fall out of the top 50? Top 75?
It fell to 99th. New quarterback Justin Holman showed hints of an incredible arm but struggled to harness it, and the run game burned to the ground. The output was mystifying -- 24 points against Penn State but 17 against Houston, 31 against BYU but 16 against USF -- and resulted in a tumble from 22nd in the overall F/+ ratings to 60th. A winning record in one-possession games (4-3) meant the damage was minimal, but the drop was larger than I expected.
So was it enough to change the program's trajectory? The point of last year's preview was, "Yeah, they'll fall this year, but they're still the sturdiest in the conference." That assertion was made shaky last year, and the defense now has a lot to prove. It must replace its entire secondary and two-thirds of an active linebacking corps. Still, recruiting and coaching are still strong, and the new contributors look pretty impressive on paper.
Memphis' 2014 surge (and retention of head coach Justin Fuente) and Tommy Tuberville's work at Cincinnati, not to mention the addition of a sturdy Navy, have made me less confident in UCF's superiority. This season will go a long way toward solidifying that confidence or tearing it all the way down.
2014 Schedule & Results
Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 7-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 60 | |||||||
Date | Opponent | Opp. F/+ Rk | Score | W-L | Percentile Performance |
Adj. Scoring Margin |
Win Expectancy |
30-Aug | vs. Penn State | 45 | 24-26 | L | 36% | -8.3 | 49% |
13-Sep | at Missouri | 20 | 10-38 | L | 4% | -41.1 | 0% |
20-Sep | Bethune-Cookman | NR | 41-7 | W | 83% | 22.7 | 100% |
2-Oct | at Houston | 73 | 17-12 | W | 64% | 8.6 | 86% |
9-Oct | BYU | 46 | 31-24 | W | 55% | 3.0 | 66% |
18-Oct | Tulane | 93 | 20-13 | W | 43% | -4.3 | 85% |
25-Oct | Temple | 67 | 34-14 | W | 91% | 30.9 | 100% |
1-Nov | at Connecticut | 119 | 29-37 | L | 8% | -33.5 | 15% |
14-Nov | Tulsa | 117 | 31-7 | W | 63% | 7.5 | 100% |
22-Nov | SMU | 127 | 53-7 | W | 83% | 22.2 | 100% |
28-Nov | at South Florida | 123 | 16-0 | W | 56% | 3.6 | 96% |
4-Dec | at East Carolina | 61 | 32-30 | W | 40% | -6.2 | 30% |
26-Dec | vs. NC State | 55 | 27-34 | L | 19% | -20.3 | 9% |
Category | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk |
S&P+ | 22.6 | 99 | 23.4 | 34 |
Points Per Game | 28.1 | 72 | 19.2 | 9 |
2. Kings of the response
If there's one thing UCF is incredible at under George O'Leary, it's responding to setbacks. The Knights do step backward, but their next step is always sure. They improved from 0-11 to 8-5 in 2005. After falling back to 4-8 in 2006, they surged to 10-4, went 12-13 in 2008-09, then 11-3 in 2010. After one more slip (5-7 in 2011), they put together their most sustained surge yet, going 31-9 since 2012.
2014 played out in a similar fashion. UCF faded in the second half of an eventual 28-point loss at Missouri, then responded with three decent performances. They looked shaky in a narrow win over Tulane, then put up 466 yards and 34 points on a strong Temple. They inexplicably lost to UConn, then beat Tulsa, SMU, and USF by a combined 100-14.
The finale against ECU took on the same look: UCF gave up three fourth-quarter touchdowns to go from up 26-9 to down 30-26, then made a huge stop in the closing seconds and completed a 51-yard Hail Mary for the win.
It's telling that we're talking about a 9-4 season like something to be rebounded from. On paper, we see the offense is mostly experienced and the defense has handled turnover well in the past. If the Knights respond to setbacks as they have through the 2000s, they could be capable of awesome things.
Offense
FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE | ||||||
Raw Category | Rk | Opp. Adj. Category | Rk | |||
EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP | 0.85 | 68 | IsoPPP+ | 102.7 | 62 |
EFFICIENCY | Succ. Rt. | 40.3% | 81 | Succ. Rt. + | 98.0 | 74 |
FIELD POSITION | Def. Avg. FP | 32.0 | 106 | Def. FP+ | 96.0 | 108 |
FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Trip in 40 | 4.1 | 86 | Redzone S&P+ | 95.0 | 81 |
TURNOVERS | EXPECTED | 25.2 | ACTUAL | 29 | +3.8 |
Category | Yards/ Game Rk |
S&P+ Rk | Success Rt. Rk |
PPP+ Rk |
OVERALL | 103 | 66 | 82 | 62 |
RUSHING | 106 | 87 | 76 | 99 |
PASSING | 59 | 48 | 86 | 34 |
Standard Downs | 83 | 98 | 73 | |
Passing Downs | 46 | 48 | 47 |
Q1 Rk | 92 | 1st Down Rk | 55 |
Q2 Rk | 49 | 2nd Down Rk | 52 |
Q3 Rk | 77 | 3rd Down Rk | 101 |
Q4 Rk | 87 |
3. A change, sort of
Charlie Taaffe's career was unique. He served as the offensive coordinator for Army, Maryland, Pitt, UCF, and ... the Montreal Alouettes. His three head coaching jobs were for the Alouettes, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, and ... The Citadel.
He pivoted from two successful seasons as Montreal head coach (24-12 with a Grey Cup appearance) to the Maryland offensive coordinator position, and after six years back in FBS, he went to Hamilton and bombed (5-23). The last six seasons of his career took place in Orlando, pulling the strings for an offense that was often solid (three times in the Off. S&P+ top 50) and sometimes less so.
Taaffe's retirement opened the door for an O'Leary lifer. Brent Key was a four-year starting lineman for O'Leary's Georgia Tech, then took on a graduate assistant role for the Yellow Jackets in 2001. He resumed the same role at UCF. He was a tight ends coach, recruiting coordinator, offensive line coach, and running backs coach, and now he's calling plays.
One figures the change from Taaffe to Key will not be significant. The pace will probably pick up a bit, but the pro-style principles will still be in place.
A lot of the play-calling, though, might depend on whether the run or pass is a liability. The former was last fall.
Quarterback
Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.
Player | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
Justin Holman | 6'4, 213 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.7969 | 223 | 392 | 2952 | 23 | 14 | 56.9% | 26 | 6.2% | 6.6 |
Nick Patti | 5'11, 201 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8397 | 7 | 14 | 89 | 0 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 6.4 |
Pete DiNovo | 6'2, 205 | So. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8209 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 37.5% | 1 | 11.1% | 1.3 |
Tyler Harris | 6'4, 223 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8711 | |||||||||
Bo Schneider | 6'4, 225 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8453 |
Running Back
Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
Fumbles | Fum. Lost |
William Stanback | RB | 6'1, 225 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7000 | 189 | 697 | 10 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 28.0% | 2 | 2 |
Dontravious Wilson | RB | 5'10, 212 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8201 | 95 | 347 | 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 28.4% | 1 | 0 |
Justin Holman | QB | 6'4, 213 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.7969 | 86 | 362 | 3 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 51.2% | 8 | 4 |
Micah Reed | RB | 6'0, 214 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8553 | 59 | 223 | 0 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 35.6% | 1 | 1 |
Rannell Hall | WR | 25 | 129 | 1 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 44.0% | 1 | 1 | ||||
Cedric Thompson | HB | 6'0, 224 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.7898 | 17 | 36 | 1 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 23.5% | 0 | 0 |
Nick Patti | QB | 5'11, 201 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8397 | 9 | 49 | 1 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 44.4% | 0 | 0 |
Josh Reese | WR | 4 | 16 | 0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 50.0% | 0 | 0 | ||||
C.J. Jones | RB | 5'10, 195 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8328 | ||||||||
Taj McGowan | RB | 6'1, 190 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8305 |
4. What the hell happened to the run?
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Blake Bortles and Storm Johnson were the marquee names on UCF's 2013 Fiesta Bowl squad, but the most important players might have been Justin McCray, Jordan McCray, and Chris Martin. Those linemen combined for 88 career starts, and they played their final games at the Fiesta Bowl.
The 2014 line featured a three-year starter in left tackle Torrian Wilson and ... a pu pu platter of interchangeable pieces. Four different players started at left guard (including three in the first three weeks), two started at center, three started at right guard, and two started at right tackle. Incredibly, UCF started a different combination up front in each of the first nine games of the season. The Knights began with three players with starting experience and finished with 10.
So it wasn't surprising when a line that ranked 11th in Adj. Line Yards in 2013 fell to 111th. The line held up well to blitzes but couldn't generate a push in short-yardage situations and couldn't keep defenders out of the backfield on run plays. A full quarter of UCF's rushes were stopped at or behind the line.
Young running backs didn't help. William Stanback, Dontravious Wilson, and Micah Reed were sophomores, and all three failed to average 4 yards per carry. Reed hinted at efficiency, and Stanback showed potential explosiveness for his size, but a year after ranking seventh in Rushing S&P+, UCF fell to 87th.
Based on nothing more than experience, that should change. The sophomores have become juniors (and added a couple of three-star youngsters in C.J. Jones and Taj McGowan), and the line returns eight of the 10 players who started a game. Experience means nothing without skill, but it's better than nothing.
Receiving Corps
Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | Targets | Catches | Yards | Catch Rate | Target Rate |
%SD | Yds/ Target |
NEY | Real Yds/ Target |
RYPR |
Breshad Perriman | WR | 94 | 50 | 1044 | 53.2% | 24.5% | 48.9% | 11.1 | 416 | 11.5 | 135.5 | ||||
Rannell Hall | WR | 79 | 49 | 500 | 62.0% | 20.6% | 55.7% | 6.3 | -96 | 6.4 | 64.9 | ||||
Josh Reese | WR | 66 | 39 | 552 | 59.1% | 17.2% | 39.4% | 8.4 | 73 | 8.4 | 71.6 | ||||
J.J. Worton | WR | 52 | 36 | 514 | 69.2% | 13.5% | 59.6% | 9.9 | 85 | 10.0 | 66.7 | ||||
Jordan Akins | WR | 6'3, 237 | So. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8505 | 20 | 12 | 135 | 60.0% | 5.2% | 80.0% | 6.8 | -12 | 7.9 | 17.5 |
Dontravious Wilson | RB | 5'10, 212 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8201 | 17 | 13 | 56 | 76.5% | 4.4% | 52.9% | 3.3 | -96 | 3.3 | 7.3 |
William Stanback | RB | 6'1, 225 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7000 | 17 | 11 | 55 | 64.7% | 4.4% | 47.1% | 3.2 | -78 | 3.0 | 7.1 |
Jackie Williams | WR | 10 | 7 | 56 | 70.0% | 2.6% | 50.0% | 5.6 | -27 | 6.1 | 7.3 | ||||
Justin Tukes | TE | 8 | 5 | 45 | 62.5% | 2.1% | 100.0% | 5.6 | -16 | NR | 5.8 | ||||
Micah Reed | RB | 6'0, 214 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8553 | 7 | 5 | 46 | 71.4% | 1.8% | 14.3% | 6.6 | -13 | 6.3 | 6.0 |
Taylor Oldham | WR | 6'1, 200 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.7500 | 7 | 3 | 35 | 42.9% | 1.8% | 57.1% | 5.0 | -5 | 5.0 | 4.5 |
Kevin Miller | TE | 6'4, 255 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.7994 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 66.7% | 0.8% | 100.0% | 4.3 | -11 | NR | 1.7 |
Mario Mathis | HB | 6'1, 232 | So. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8469 | ||||||||||
Tre'Quan Smith | WR | 6'1, 180 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8179 | ||||||||||
Tristan Payton | WR | 6'1, 185 | Fr. | 4 stars (5.9) | 0.9047 | ||||||||||
Chris Davis Jr. | WR | 6'1, 180 | Fr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8142 | ||||||||||
Cam Stewart | WR | 6'3, 190 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8460 | ||||||||||
Aaron Cochran | HB | 6'3, 262 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8206 | ||||||||||
D'erren Wilson | WR | 6'3, 195 | Fr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7993 |
5. What the hell is going to happen to the pass?
Holman is tantalizing. He won the thankless job of succeeding Bortles, and while he was far from amazing, his good throws were beyond good. When his footwork was right and he wasn't hurried, he threw what might have been the prettiest ball in college football.
But as is the case for many young starters, he was still learning. His feet betrayed him often, and his reads were sometimes slow. He took more sacks on standard downs than passing downs, he threw 14 interceptions, and his completion rate was 57 percent -- not terrible considering he was averaging 13.2 yards per completion, but not great either.
Holman's great games were incredible. Against Penn State and Temple, two of the best defenses on the schedule, he completed a combined 34 of 53 passes (64 percent) for 540 yards, three scores, and no picks. Against Houston, Tulane, UConn, and NC State, he completed 60 of 130 (46 percent) for 789 yards, eight scores, and seven picks.
A stable line and running game could keep Holman comfortable, but he might have trouble recognizing his receivers. Those responsible for 81 percent of last year's targets are gone. UCF didn't have a go-to guy (Breshad Perriman's 24.5 percent target rate was awfully low for a No. 1 target), but that doesn't matter when you lose five of your top six wideouts.
The retooled corps has all sorts of potential. Big sophomore Jordan Akins was a mid-three-star signee, redshirt freshman Tre'Quan Smith's name came up quite a bit this spring, and four-star freshman Tristan Payton was the jewel of the 2015 class.
But they have a combined 12 career catches and one year of experience. While this passing game could be awesome in 2016, one has to assume growing pains in 2015.
Offensive Line
Category | Adj. Line Yds |
Std. Downs LY/carry |
Pass. Downs LY/carry |
Opp. Rate |
Power Success Rate |
Stuff Rate |
Adj. Sack Rate |
Std. Downs Sack Rt. |
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. |
Team | 86 | 2.45 | 2.51 | 34.3% | 64.6% | 25.0% | 103.0 | 5.9% | 4.8% |
Rank | 111 | 118 | 114 | 111 | 89 | 121 | 63 | 88 | 23 |
Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | Career Starts | Honors/Notes |
Torrian Wilson | LT | 42 | 2014 2nd All-AAC | ||||
Joey Grant | RG | 6'3, 286 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.7685 | 23 | |
Chavis Dickey | RT | 6'4, 300 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8101 | 12 | |
Tarik Cook | C | 6'2, 291 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8410 | 10 | |
Tarik Milner | LG | 7 | |||||
Jason Rae | C | 5'11, 283 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.7594 | 7 | |
Chester Brown | RG | 6'5, 317 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8488 | 3 | |
Colby Watson | RG | 6'5, 318 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8103 | 3 | |
Michael Campbell | LT | 6'6, 285 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.7867 | 2 | |
Aaron Evans | RT | 6'5, 290 | So. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7993 | 1 | |
Tate Hernly | LG | 6'3, 291 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8016 | 0 | |
Wyatt Miller | OL | 6'4, 280 | RSFr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8343 | ||
Luke Palmer | OL | 6'3, 280 | RSFr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8035 | ||
Luke Hiers | OL | 6'3, 285 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8600 | ||
Tyler Hudanick | OL | 6'5, 300 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8100 |
Defense
FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE | ||||||
Raw Category | Rk | Opp. Adj. Category | Rk | |||
EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP | 0.72 | 5 | IsoPPP+ | 109.9 | 42 |
EFFICIENCY | Succ. Rt. | 38.4% | 27 | Succ. Rt. + | 94.8 | 90 |
FIELD POSITION | Off. Avg. FP | 34.4 | 7 | Off. FP+ | 104.9 | 24 |
FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Trip in 40 | 3.6 | 13 | Redzone S&P+ | 92.9 | 92 |
TURNOVERS | EXPECTED | 27.3 | ACTUAL | 28.0 | +0.7 |
Category | Yards/ Game Rk |
S&P+ Rk | Success Rt. Rk |
PPP+ Rk |
OVERALL | 5 | 57 | 81 | 42 |
RUSHING | 6 | 49 | 87 | 16 |
PASSING | 21 | 68 | 65 | 67 |
Standard Downs | 59 | 78 | 51 | |
Passing Downs | 51 | 76 | 36 |
Q1 Rk | 61 | 1st Down Rk | 41 |
Q2 Rk | 52 | 2nd Down Rk | 72 |
Q3 Rk | 69 | 3rd Down Rk | 17 |
Q4 Rk | 26 |
6. Opponents didn't have to run
O'Leary has always leaned heavily on his starters. In 2013, only three linemen, five linebackers, and four defensive backs recorded 13 tackles. In 2014, in part because of injury, those numbers increased to five, four, and six. I used to think this said bad things about UCF's depth, but through the years it has proved to be a preference.
Each year he introduces players with minimal history, and each year he fields a top-50 defense. UCF has ranked between 31st and 48th in Def. S&P+ each year since 2007 (when the Knights ranked 55th).
When the track record is that consistent, it's easy to look past staff changes. But it does bear mentioning that O'Leary is on his fourth defensive coordinator in three years. Jim Fleming took the Rhode Island head job following the Fiesta Bowl, Paul Ferraro succeeded him but left a couple of months later (strange story, that), and Tyson Summers led the D for one year before leaving for a raise at Colorado State.
Now it's Chuck Bresnahan's turn; Bresnahan was USF's coordinator for the last two years, producing a strong unit in 2013 (34th in Def. S&P+) then watching it fall apart (96th). Bresnahan takes over a unit that was rather confusing.
The Knights' run efficiency numbers were abysmal (87th in Rushing Success Rate+), but they prevented big run plays as well as just about anybody. That suggests a soft front that was prone to giving up 5-yard gains with regularity. Only, UCF ranked first in Stuff Rate (run stops at or behind the line) and third in Power Success Rate. That doesn't add up.
Opponents figured one thing out: passing was a surer bet than running. Opponents ran the ball 7 percent more than the national average on standard downs and 5 percent more on passing downs, and while this was not a winning strategy for most AAC offenses, the power-conference teams on the schedule sliced through UCF's secondary like the hot knife through butter. Penn State, Missouri, and NC State combined to produce a 157.1 passer rating, while everybody else managed 91.8.
UCF didn't play in a power conference, so that only hurt so much. Regardless, the pass defense was the weak link, and most teams tried to exploit it, even if only a few could. With a drastic overhaul in the secondary, it's hard to imagine that changing, even with a new D.C.
Defensive Line
Category | Adj. Line Yds |
Std. Downs LY/carry |
Pass. Downs LY/carry |
Opp. Rate |
Power Success Rate |
Stuff Rate |
Adj. Sack Rate |
Std. Downs Sack Rt. |
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. |
Team | 113.5 | 2.34 | 2.66 | 37.0% | 49.1% | 29.4% | 123.9 | 7.2% | 9.4% |
Rank | 22 | 7 | 22 | 41 | 3 | 1 | 28 | 19 | 28 |
Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | GP | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Thomas Niles | DE | 6'2, 270 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8314 | 13 | 38.5 | 5.6% | 12.0 | 7.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Jaryl Mamea | DT | 13 | 26.5 | 3.9% | 10.0 | 7.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Miles Pace | DE | 6'1, 256 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8300 | 11 | 26.0 | 3.8% | 9.5 | 6.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Demetris Anderson | DT | 6'2, 299 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.7800 | 13 | 24.5 | 3.6% | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jamiyus Pittman | DT | 6'0, 300 | So. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8575 | 13 | 14.0 | 2.0% | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Luke Adams | DE | 6'4, 260 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8006 | 12 | 11.5 | 1.7% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Seyvon Lowry (2013) | DE | 6'2, 244 | So. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8399 | 6 | 6.5 | 1.0% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Deion Green | DE | 5 | 3.5 | 0.5% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Rob Sauvao | DT | 7 | 2.0 | 0.3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ||||
Lance McDowdell | DT | 6'4, 310 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8685 | 9 | 1.5 | 0.2% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Stanley Sylverain | DE | 6'1, 237 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.7400 | |||||||||
Tony Guerad | DT | 6'3, 290 | So. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7954 | |||||||||
Joey Connors | DT | 6'1, 270 | RSFr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8220 | |||||||||
Monte Taylor | DE | 6'4, 245 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8006 | |||||||||
Titus Davis | DE | 6'3, 230 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8479 | |||||||||
Brendon Hayes | DE | 6'4, 255 | Fr. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.8052 |
7. Hard to worry about the defensive front
UCF is dealing with turnover in two of its three defensive units, but the line should be as stout as ever.
The Knights must replace the rare tackle-as-pass-rush-specialist in Jaryl Mamea, but the return of seniors Thomas Niles and Miles Pace is huge for the pass rush, and tackles Demetris Anderson and Jamiyus Pittman should assure the defensive front remains disruptive and solid in short-yardage. An injury to one of those two could force Bresnahan to dig deep into a well of unproven tackles, but the the Knights are quite deep at end.
Linebackers
Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | GP | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Terrance Plummer | MLB | 13 | 77.0 | 11.2% | 13.0 | 4.0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | ||||
Troy Gray | OLB | 13 | 54.5 | 8.0% | 8.5 | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | ||||
Chequan Burkett | OLB | 6'2, 218 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8167 | 12 | 31.5 | 4.6% | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Errol Clarke | OLB | 6'1, 240 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8359 | 12 | 21.5 | 3.1% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Michael Easton | OLB | 13 | 9.5 | 1.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Jordan Franks | OLB | 6'3, 225 | So. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.7752 | 13 | 7.0 | 1.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Mark Rucker | LB | 5'9, 210 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.2) | NR | 13 | 7.0 | 1.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Willie Mitchell | LB | 11 | 3.5 | 0.5% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Domenic Spencer | MLB | 5'10, 229 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | NR | 11 | 3.0 | 0.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Maurice Russell | LB | 5'11, 239 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8006 | 11 | 2.0 | 0.3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Justin McDonald | LB | 6'2, 211 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8248 | |||||||||
Quintin Hampton | LB | 6'0, 235 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8367 | |||||||||
Neal Nelson | LB | 6'2, 215 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8331 | |||||||||
Pat Jasinski | LB | 6'2, 218 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8116 | |||||||||
Marcus Foster | LB | 6'2, 225 | Fr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7959 |
Secondary
Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | GP | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Clayton Geathers | SS | 13 | 77.5 | 11.3% | 6.5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | ||||
Brandon Alexander | FS | 13 | 60.5 | 8.8% | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||||
Jordan Ozerities | CB | 13 | 59.0 | 8.6% | 3 | 1.5 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Jacoby Glenn | CB | 13 | 41.5 | 6.1% | 1 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 0 | ||||
Shaquill Griffin | CB | 6'1, 192 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8259 | 13 | 15.0 | 2.2% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
D.J. Killings | CB | 6'1, 184 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8078 | 8 | 13.0 | 1.9% | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Drico Johnson | FS | 6'1, 202 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8453 | 13 | 8.5 | 1.2% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jared Henry | SS | 6'0, 208 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8500 | 10 | 7.5 | 1.1% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sean Beckton | DB | 13 | 6.5 | 0.9% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Kyle Gibson | DB | 5'11, 180 | RSFr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.8957 | |||||||||
Chris Williams | CB | 6'0, 180 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8879 | |||||||||
Tre Neal | DB | 6'1, 185 | RSFr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8386 | |||||||||
Rashard Causey | DB | 6'0, 190 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8681 | |||||||||
Brandon Scott | DB | 6'0, 185 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8504 |
8. Not hard to worry about pass defense
Linebacker recruiting has not been much of an issue for UCF. Losing longtime starters Terrance Plummer and Troy Gray (combined: 21.5 tackles for loss, 14 passes defensed, five sacks) is nothing to ignore, but the odds are good that starters will emerge from a pool that includes seniors Errol Clarke and Dom Spencer, sophomore Chequan Burkett, junior Justin McDonald, and plenty of former three-star recruits.
The secondary has similar promise but far less experience. A starting secondary that accounted for 14 interceptions, 38 break-ups, 12.5 tackles for loss, and four forced fumbles is gone.
The unit is not devoid of experience. Four juniors recorded between 7.5 and 15 tackles, and all four were former three-star recruits. D.J. Killings made an impact in minimal opportunities, and Shaquill Griffin looks like a keeper. But it will be interesting to see how quickly two of O'Leary's most high-profile signees -- redshirt freshmen Kyle Gibson and Chris Williams -- can live up. Williams had a strong spring, and Gibson is one of two former four-stars on the roster.
Special Teams
Punter | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
Caleb Houston | 6'1, 200 | Jr. | 54 | 39.0 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 63.0% |
Kicker | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Kickoffs | Avg | TB | OOB | TB% |
Sean Galvin | 56 | 59.8 | 17 | 1 | 30.4% | ||
Rodrigo Quirarte | 16 | 59.8 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
PAT | FG (0-39) |
Pct | FG (40+) |
Pct |
Shawn Moffitt | 30-30 | 12-14 | 85.7% | 5-9 | 55.6% | ||
Rodrigo Quirarte | 10-10 | 4-6 | 66.7% | 0-0 |
Returner | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Returns | Avg. | TD |
Jordan Akins | KR | 6'3, 237 | So. | 15 | 24.2 | 0 |
Rannell Hall | KR | 12 | 27.5 | 0 | ||
J.J. Worton | PR | 17 | 10.2 | 0 | ||
Jackie Williams | PR | 6 | 9.2 | 0 |
Category | Rk |
Special Teams F/+ | 74 |
Field Goal Efficiency | 82 |
Punt Return Efficiency | 110 |
Kick Return Efficiency | 5 |
Punt Efficiency | 87 |
Kickoff Efficiency | 65 |
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency | 119 |
9. A reset in special teams, too
Special teams was a mixed bag, with efficiency rankings spanning from fifth to 110th. Jordan Akins, one of the reasons for the best ranking (kick returns), is back, as is a decent punter in Caleb Houston.
But UCF is starting over at kickoffs, place-kicking, and punt returns. You never know about new people in special teams, but there are enough players in new roles that improving on last year's No. 74 ranking isn't probable.
2015 Schedule & Projection Factors
2015 Schedule | ||
Date | Opponent | 2014 F/+ Rk |
3-Sep | Florida International | 96 |
12-Sep | at Stanford | 18 |
19-Sep | Furman | NR |
26-Sep | at South Carolina | 38 |
3-Oct | at Tulane | 93 |
10-Oct | Connecticut | 119 |
17-Oct | at Temple | 67 |
24-Oct | Houston | 73 |
31-Oct | at Cincinnati | 47 |
7-Nov | at Tulsa | 117 |
19-Nov | East Carolina | 61 |
27-Nov | South Florida | 123 |
Five-Year F/+ Rk | 14.3% (38) |
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk | 52 / 59 |
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* | -1 / 2.1 |
2014 TO Luck/Game | -1.2 |
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) | 9 (5, 4) |
2014 Second-order wins (difference) | 8.4 (0.6) |
10. This is a test
UCF has won 31 games in three years, and the Knights' last two recruiting classes have ranked second and third in the AAC. The defense hasn't ranked worse than 55th in Def. S&P+ since 2006, and thanks to a more stable run game and experienced quarterback, the offense should improve a little despite turnover at receiver.
Still, teams returning only nine starters have averaged a drop of about 12.6 percentage points over the last decade. By last year's standards, that would take UCF from 60th to about 86th.
I don't foresee such a drop, but that's a reminder that this year is another stiff test. UCF's athleticism should be as high as ever, but just as last year's inexperience is rectified, this year sees all sorts of new faces. Any improvement over last year's ratings would have to be seen as a victory.
With a schedule that features only three teams that ranked better than 61st last year (all on the road), the Knights should expect to win another seven to nine games. With trips to both Cincinnati and Temple, it will probably be another year before they make a serious run at another conference title.