The big 2015 Hawaii football guide: Fighting for survival

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Still here for now

They're still playing football on the islands. To call that a victory is to set the bar awfully low, but it's something. When your financial struggles are well-known enough that UAB is using you as a "See? We're not alone!" reference point, and when you've won eight games in three years, survival should not be taken for granted.

It should also not be enough. Over the last 30 years, Hawaii has won at least nine games 10 times, has spent portions of five seasons ranked in the AP Top 25, and has attended 10 bowls. The low points have been quite low -- 5-31 from 1996-98, 3-9 in 2000, 4-20 from 2012-13 -- but a rebound has always come in short order. Bob Wagner (once), June Jones (three times) and Greg McMackin (once) have all led the Rainbow Warriors to 10-win seasons and bowl appearances (usually in their home stadium), and Hawaii has through the years crafted an identity for pass-happy offenses and aggressive, fun defenses. And when the teams are fun, the fans will come. Aloha Stadium averaged 43,514 in attendance during Hawaii's 12-0 run in 2007; the Warriors averaged just 27,451 in home attendance last season.

When Norm Chow took the Hawaii head coaching job in 2012, it almost felt like an obligation on both ends. Hawaii was offering the job to a native son, a Hawaii native who was once known as one of the best offensive minds in football but who hadn't actually been part of a good offense for a while. Chow, meanwhile, seemed mostly content with never having been a head coach and was advancing in age (he was 66 when he debuted), but felt the "Come home, Norm" pull and took the job at a discount; his base salary was potentially half that of his predecessor.

It felt like more a marriage of convenience than conviction, and thus far the results have not been stellar. Chow has made iffy assistant coaching hires, and after placing an absurdly unlucky team on the field in 2013 -- Hawaii ranked 89th in F/+ but finished 1-11 -- the opposite happened in 2014; the Rainbow Warriors regressed to 111th, in part because of woeful quarterback play, but fell into a couple of lucky wins and "improved" to 4-9.

One has to figure that Chow begins 2015 on one of FBS' hottest seats. His contract runs through 2016, but his buyout drops precipitously after this season. After another tough season, relieving him of his duties might be the kindest thing for everyone involved. But a little bit of desperation and urgency might not be a bad thing.

2. Continuity would be good

An iffy budget can trickle down. Not only might it limit the pool of available head coaches, but when you do find a head man, it will also limit his ability to draw assistants. So Chow's odds of locking down a good staff were already minimal before he started making some questionable choices. His first choice for offensive coordinator in 2012 was Tommy Lee, a 40-year coaching veteran who hadn't coached for five years since losing his job as Montana Western's head coach. He was an old friend of Chow and came at a good price, and Hawaii's offense ranked 123rd in Off. S&P+ in 2012.

That was the most egregious reach, but it was indicative of an ongoing problem. Lee lasted one year. Chow's first defensive coordinator, Thom Kaumeyer, lasted two. Kaumeyer's replacement, Kevin Clune, lasted one. And in 2015, Chow had to hire two new coordinators (three including special teams): Don Bailey on offense and Tom Mason on defense.

Any hire can work with the right personnel, but Mason was a relatively uninspiring hire. He was June Jones' DC for seven years at SMU, and when he had good attacking talent up front, he knew how to use it. And when he didn't, he employed a bend-don't-break defense that bent and bent and bent.

Bailey, on the other hand, was the other kind of affordable hire. He was named Football Scoop's FCS offensive coordinator of the year at Idaho State last year, leading a high-octane, pass-happy attack that averaged 40.3 points per game, ran only 45 percent of the time (which would have ranked 105th in FBS) and averaged one play every 20.6 seconds (which would have ranked about 10th). A lot of Idaho State's offense resembled the stereotypical Big Hawaii Offense of years past. We'll see if he has the personnel he needs (he might not), but this was a sensible, exciting hire. And now we'll see if, in case Chow is still at UH in 2016, he actually doesn't have to hire new guys next offseason.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-9 | Adj. Record: 1-12 | Final F/+ Rk: 111
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	Washington	58	16-17	L	48%	-1.0	60%
6-Sep	Oregon State	74	30-38	L	6%	-35.7	1%
13-Sep	Northern Iowa	N/A	27-24	W	9%	-31.9	21%
20-Sep	at Colorado	83	12-21	L	4%	-41.4	1%
4-Oct	at Rice	86	14-28	L	13%	-26.3	3%
11-Oct	Wyoming	113	38-28	W	52%	1.0	94%
18-Oct	at San Diego State	76	10-20	L	24%	-16.8	9%
25-Oct	Nevada	64	18-26	L	18%	-21.3	10%
1-Nov	Utah State	52	14-35	L	9%	-31.3	0%
8-Nov	at Colorado State	49	22-49	L	2%	-46.7	0%
15-Nov	at San Jose State	116	13-0	W	23%	-17.2	39%
22-Nov	UNLV	118	37-35	W	15%	-23.7	27%
29-Nov	at Fresno State	102	21-28	L	11%	-29.0	8%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	16.5	121	35.3	109
Points Per Game	20.9	111	26.8	65

3. Three unlikely wins (and an unlikely loss)

The win expectancy numbers above are intended to say "With the key stats at hand in this game, Team A could have expected to win X percent of the time." It is an in-game probability figure.

Hawaii traded unlikely results early in the season, losing a game it should have won against Washington and winning a game it should have lost against UNI. And in conference play, the Warriors stole two victories.

Hawaii's 13-0 win over San Jose State came with a 39 percent win probability, as the Spartans outgained the Warriors by 222 yards but missed three field goals, turned the ball over on downs three times inside Hawaii's 40, and turned the ball over twice inside the 20.

The win over UNLV was even less likely. Hawaii won the yardage battle by 104 yards but lost two fumbles and lost the field position battle by 12 yards per drive. But Hawaii scored with 15 seconds left to cut UNLV's lead to 35-31, recovered an onside kick, and scored again as time expired.

It was a thrilling, stolen win.

Luck and randomness were cruel to Hawaii in 2013, when the Warriors lost five games by seven or fewer points. But luck and randomness also prevented Hawaii from another one-win campaign last year. It may have kept Chow employed (if Hawaii could have afforded to buy him out in the first place). How will the team respond to a second life of sorts?

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.76	113	IsoPPP+	71.2	122
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	35.0%	123	Succ. Rt. +	80.6	125
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.2	56	Def. FP+	99.0	77
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.5	115	Redzone S&P+	79.8	125
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	26.6		ACTUAL	27	+0.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	101	125	125	122
RUSHING	85	119	121	117
PASSING	81	125	124	123
Standard Downs		126	125	126
Passing Downs		112	112	104

Q1 Rk	120	1st Down Rk	122
Q2 Rk	125	2nd Down Rk	125
Q3 Rk	116	3rd Down Rk	121
Q4 Rk	103

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Ikaika Woolsey	6'1, 210	Jr.	2 stars	0.7444	210	416	2538	13	13	50.5%	38	8.4%	5.1
Jeremy Higgins					7	23	103	0	0	30.4%	2	8.0%	3.6
Taylor Graham					12	22	133	1	1	54.5%	1	4.3%	5.5
Beau Reilly	6'6, 190	RSFr.	2 stars	0.7593
Max Wittek	6'4, 240	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9573

4. Start with a quarterback

Don Bailey's 2014 Idaho State offense was exciting and aggressive. Quarterbacks completed 60 percent of their passes and averaged an aggressive 12.9 yards per completion while throwing picks less than 2 percent of the time and getting sacked less than 3 percent of the time. Two Bengal receivers had 60-plus catches, and five more had between 20 and 40. Plus, because of tempo, the top two running backs combined for 31 carries per game as well.

Bailey found the depth he needed in Pocatello, starting with quarterback Justin Arias. He's got options at quarterback at Hawaii, but nothing is proven. Ater two different quarterbacks (Jeremy Higgins and Taylor Graham) were lost for the season with injury, Ikaika Woolsey took over the starting job and struggled. He had his moments -- 13-for-21 for 229 yards against UNLV, 8-for-9 for 173 against Wyoming -- but the combination of a 51 percent completion rate and 12.1 yards per completion was quite awful, especially combined with a bad sack rate and double-digit interceptions.

Woolsey is the incumbent, but two others will get every opportunity in the world to overtake him. Beau Reilly kept his freshman redshirt on last season though he was the No. 2 guy by the end of the year because of injuries, but the big name is a senior newcomer: former USC quarterback Max Wittek. Wittek never found traction with the Trojans (53 percent completion rate, three scores to six picks) but still has the arm and look of a blue-chip quarterback.

The quarterback will bear the weight of Bailey's offense. Is one up to it?

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Steven Lakalaka	RB	5'10, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8578	159	646	2	4.1	3.6	31.4%	1	0
Joey Iosefa	RB					151	617	8	4.1	4.4	27.2%	2	1
Diocemy Saint Juste	RB	5'8, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8256	73	372	3	5.1	5.9	37.0%	3	1
Ikaika Woolsey	QB	6'1, 210	Jr.	2 stars	0.7444	72	444	1	6.2	5.6	47.2%	4	3
Pereese Joas	RB	5'6, 170	Sr.	NR	NR	7	67	0	9.6	5.6	71.4%	0	0
Keelan Ewaliko	WR	5'11, 175	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7905	7	47	1	6.7	4.0	57.1%	0	0
DJ Riggins	RB	5'10, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8310
Melvin Davis	RB	6'2, 235	Jr.	NR	0.7900
Paul Harris	RB	5'11, 190	Jr.	NR	0.8000

5. Then find a running back

Rushing stats are tricky because you don't immediately know anything about the quality of the blocking the line delivered, the number of defenders in the box, et cetera. With good blocking and a good passing game, perhaps Steven Lakalaka could deliver high-quality numbers. But he didn't last year. His 31 percent opportunity rate (percentage of carries that gained at least 5 yards) ranked 88th among the 98 rushers with at least 150 carries. His 3.59 highlight yards per opportunity also ranked 88th. He offered neither efficiency nor explosiveness, and you need one or the other. Diocemy Saint Juste produced much better averages in fewer carries and went off in two of Hawaii's wins (combined against Wyoming and UNLV: 28 carries, 216 yards), but for one reason or another, he only averaged six carries per game.

That leads you to believe that any of three newcomers could see the field pretty quickly in a Bailey offense that demands a high volume of playmakers. D.J. Riggins is the rare three-star Hawaii freshman, Melvin Davis is a big, reasonably touted JUCO transfer, and Paul Harris is an All-American JUCO return man who saw some success on offense, too. If one of these three emerges as a quality threat, the numbers could be here.

There are fewer concerns in the receiving corps, at least from a volume perspective. Last year's top two targets are back; Quinton Pedroza wasn't an amazing No. 1 receiver, but Marcus Kemp was just about the only big-play threat Hawaii had last year, and big junior Vasquez Haynes returns after missing 2014. If one of three youngsters -- sophomore Ammon Barker, sophomore Keelan Ewaliko and BYU transfer Dylan Collie -- emerges, the numbers here are probably fine, too.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Quinton Pedroza	WR-Z	6'2, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8777	114	59	674	51.8%	25.6%	52.6%	5.9	-72	5.8	53.1
Marcus Kemp	WR-X	6'4, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7819	109	56	800	51.4%	24.5%	56.0%	7.3	91	7.3	63.1
Scott Harding	WR-F					65	34	457	52.3%	14.6%	53.8%	7.0	28	6.9	36.0
Vasquez Haynes (2013)	WR	6'2, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8122	46	29	354	63.0%	9.5%	45.0%	7.7	-1	8.9	35.6
Donnie King Jr.	WR					28	14	199	50.0%	6.3%	67.9%	7.1	21	7.4	15.7
Ammon Barker	WR-X	6'4, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8210	26	10	162	38.5%	5.8%	38.5%	6.2	26	5.2	12.8
Harold Moleni	TE	6'2, 245	Sr.	2 stars (4.9)	0.7482	23	10	74	43.5%	5.2%	69.6%	3.2	-58	3.5	5.8
Justin Vele	FB	6'0, 245	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	17	13	90	76.5%	3.8%	70.6%	5.3	-62	4.7	7.1
Joey Iosefa	RB					15	11	73	73.3%	3.4%	20.0%	4.9	-57	2.9	5.8
Steven Lakalaka	RB	5'10, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8578	11	7	53	63.6%	2.5%	27.3%	4.8	-32	5.6	4.2
Keelan Ewaliko	WR-F	5'11, 175	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7905	10	6	141	60.0%	2.2%	70.0%	14.1	67	11.6	11.1
Jordan Pu'u-Robinson	TE					10	7	50	70.0%	2.2%	50.0%	5.0	-33	5.0	3.9
Metuisela 'Unga	TE	6'5, 250	So.	NR	NR	3	1	21	33.3%	0.7%	66.7%	7.0	7	8.9	1.7
David Manoa	TE	6'3, 210	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7685	3	0	0	0.0%	0.7%	66.7%	0.0	-4	0.0	0.0
Diocemy Saint Juste	RB	5'8, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8256	3	1	-1	33.3%	0.7%	0.0%	-0.3	-15	N/A	-0.1
Ryan Pasoquen	WR-Z	6'0, 190	Sr.	NR	NR	2	0	0	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0	-3	N/A	0.0
Dylan Collie	WR	5'10, 175	Fr.	3 stars	NR

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	91.3	2.85	3.49	34.1%	79.2%	17.0%	80.9	6.1%	9.0%
Rank	104	81	43	113	5	34	98	91	88

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Ben Clarke	LT	6'3, 285	Sr.	2 stars	0.7000	37
Sean Shigematsu	RT					27
Kody Afusia	C					25
Dave Lefotu	RG					24
Dejon Allen	RG	6'2, 270	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8472	11
Frank Loyd Jr.	RT					7
Brenden Urban	C	6'1, 295	Sr.	NR	NR	6
Elijah Tupai	LG	6'4, 265	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8150	3
Leo Koloamatangi	LG	6'5, 275	Jr.	NR	0.7733	3
John Wa'a	LT	6'4, 310	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7832	2
RJ Hollis	RG	6'4, 285	Jr.	NR	NR
Matt Norman	OL	6'5, 250	Jr.	NR	0.7000

6. Then find some new linemen

Relatively speaking, Hawaii's line was a strength last year. The Warriors couldn't create opportunities for their backs (which may have been the backs' fault) but excelled in short-yardage situations and kept defenders out of the backfield on rushes. They did this despite throwing out six different starting line combinations throughout the season, including each of the first four weeks of the year.

Unfortunately, while shuffling can often result in a nice bank of experience, four players who had combined for 83 career starts are now gone. Three-year starting tackle Ben Clarke is back, as are three sophomores who combined for 16 starts last year, but while this line might not be worse than it was last year, it might not be better either.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.91	99	IsoPPP+	90.2	98
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.6%	59	Succ. Rt. +	96.5	81
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.3	86	Off. FP+	97.0	99
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.3	60	Redzone S&P+	90.2	105
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.9		ACTUAL	20.0	+0.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	84	93	85	98
RUSHING	75	67	77	63
PASSING	92	111	78	118
Standard Downs		78	70	82
Passing Downs		111	105	114

Q1 Rk	118	1st Down Rk	67
Q2 Rk	83	2nd Down Rk	89
Q3 Rk	63	3rd Down Rk	96
Q4 Rk	68

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	92.3	2.99	3.50	36.9%	71.7%	15.5%	88.3	5.0%	6.0%
Rank	97	71	80	39	93	113	89	52	90

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Beau Yap	DE					13	39.0	5.3%	8.5	4.5	0	1	1	0
Kennedy Tulimasealii	DE	6'1, 280	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8369	13	34.0	4.6%	9.5	2.5	0	1	1	0
Luke Shawley	DE	6'3, 240	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	13	29.5	4.0%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Moses Samia	NT					13	24.5	3.3%	1.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Marcus Malepeai	DE					8	19.5	2.6%	5.5	3.0	0	0	1	0
Calen Friel	NT					12	6.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Niko Uti	DL					8	2.5	0.3%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Kory Rasmussen	DL	6'2, 270	Jr.	2 stars	0.7961
Penitito Faalologo	DE	5'11, 250	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000
David Manoa	DE	6'3, 210	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7685
Sione Kauhi	DE	6'5, 240	Fr.	NR	NR

7. No line injuries, please

With players like defensive end Margus Hunt and linebackers Taylor Reed, Stephon Sanders and Ja'Gared Davis in recent years, Tom Mason proved that if he has disruptive talent in his front seven, he'll figure out how to use it. And in Kennedy Tulimasealii, he has at least one potential grenade up front. Linebackers Simon Poti, Julian Gener and Benetton Fonua have shown decent athleticism as well.

But after losing five of last year's top seven, the line has been drained terribly of available talent. Tulimasealii and Luke Shawley are the only returning linemen who recorded a tackle last year (and Shawley had no disruptive presence whatsoever), and while some newcomers could help out, there are barely enough names to fill in a two-deep. Any injuries up front could result in either walk-ons or undersized freshmen seeing the field.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jerrol Garcia-Williams (2013)	LB	6'2, 215	Sr.	NR	0.7000	12	56.0	7.1%	3.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Simon Poti	ILB	6'0, 220	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	13	51.0	6.9%	3.0	2.0	1	0	1	0
TJ Taimatuia	OLB					13	43.0	5.8%	7.0	2.0	2	0	0	0
Julian Gener	ILB	5'11, 235	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8056	7	41.0	5.5%	5.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Tevita Lataimua	ILB					8	35.5	4.8%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Benetton Fonua	ILB	6'0, 245	Sr.	2 stars	0.7659	13	35.0	4.7%	4.0	1.0	1	2	1	0
Lance Williams	OLB	6'0, 220	Sr.	2 stars	NR	13	18.0	2.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jeremy Castro	OLB	6'4, 240	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8861	13	15.5	2.1%	2.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Austin Slade-Matautia	LB	6'1, 220	Jr.	NR	NR
Rashaan Falemalu	LB	6'1, 210	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7633
Malachi Mageo	LB	6'2, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000
Makani Kema-Kaleiwahea (Arizona)	LB	6'3, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR
Russell Williams	LB	6'1, 225	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7900
Manly Williams	LB	6'2, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7867

8. A truly awesome linebacking corps

If the line holds up, and it probably won't, the linebackers could thrive. Five of last year's top seven are back, Jerrol Garcia-Williams is back from an ACL injury, UCLA transfer Jeremy Castro could be ready for a breakthrough, and newcomers like Makani Kema-Kaleiwahea (Arizona) and Russell Williams (JUCO) might demand playing time. Mason's 2013 SMU linebackers were aggressive and creative, and he's got similar tools here. But it all depends on the line.

Meanwhile, despite an only decent pass rush, the secondary made some plays, too. Corners Ne'Quan Phillips, Dee Maggitt and Nick Nelson combined for 20 passes defensed, and Phillips, safety Trayvon Henderson and nickelback Gaetano DeMattei combined for 13 tackles for loss. From a recruiting perspective, the defensive backs might have been the most well-touted unit on the team, and the playmaking helped to back that up.

Unfortunately, there was quite a bit of boom-or-bust here, too. Hawaii ranked a decent 78th in Passing Success Rate+ (efficiency) but a miserable 118th in Passing IsoPPP+ (explosiveness). Mason tried to stay pretty conservative with his DBs at SMU, though, so it will be interesting to see what changes. Maggitt and leading tackler Taz Stevenson are gone, but Henderson, Phillips, Nelson and DeMattei are back, and three-star newcomers Dejaun Butler, Solomon Matautia and Cameron Hayes could build nice depth. There are pieces to like here, especially if Mason can tamp down on the big plays allowed.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Taz Stevenson	S					12	78.5	10.6%	0.5	0	0	0	1	0
Trayvon Henderson	S	6'0, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8093	11	58.5	7.9%	3	1	2	0	0	0
Ne'Quan Phillips	CB	5'9, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8135	13	50.5	6.8%	6	3	1	6	1	0
Dee Maggitt	CB					13	40.5	5.5%	2	0	0	7	1	0
Nick Nelson	CB	6'0, 190	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7926	10	33.5	4.5%	1	0	0	6	1	0
Gaetano DeMattei	NB	5'8, 175	Sr.	NR	NR	13	23.5	3.2%	4	1	0	0	0	0
Daniel Lewis Jr.	S	5'11, 180	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8141	11	18.5	2.5%	0	0	2	1	0	0
Michael Martin	S					13	9.0	1.2%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Marrell Jackson	S	6'0, 185	Sr.	NR	NR	10	8.5	1.1%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Jalen Rogers	CB	6'1, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	6	6.5	0.9%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Jerrell Jackson	DB	6'0, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7993
Dejaun Butler	CB	5'11, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8033
Solomon Matautia	S	6'1, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8331
Cameron Hayes	DB	5'11, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8115

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Scott Harding			86	41.3	2	12	34	53.5%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Tyler Hadden			58	62.0	27	1	46.6%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Tyler Hadden			28-28	15-19	78.9%	3-4	75.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Keelan Ewaliko	KR	5'11, 175	So.	29	20.3	0
Diocemy Saint Juste	KR	5'8, 180	Jr.	6	18.0	0
Scott Harding	PR			25	8.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	36
Field Goal Efficiency	70
Punt Return Efficiency	88
Kick Return Efficiency	93
Punt Efficiency	2
Kickoff Efficiency	57
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	1

9. Mr. Diversity is gone

I don't think we appreciated Scott Harding enough in the college football universe. He averaged 41 yards per punt, pinned opponents inside the 20 34 times, and helped Hawaii to rank second in the country in Punt Efficiency. Oh yeah, and he averaged 8.8 yards per punt return and averaged 7.0 yards per target as Ikaika Woolsey's No. 3 receiver. One guy did those things!

Harding's numbers were certainly replaceable at receiver and returns, but his punting was a major field position weapon for a team that needed one. Losing him might turn a top-40 special teams unit into a top-80 special teams unit.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rk
3-Sep	Colorado	83
12-Sep	at Ohio State	1
19-Sep	UC Davis	NR
26-Sep	at Wisconsin	25
3-Oct	at Boise State	21
10-Oct	San Diego State	76
17-Oct	at New Mexico	94
24-Oct	at Nevada	64
31-Oct	Air Force	48
7-Nov	at UNLV	118
14-Nov	Fresno State	102
21-Nov	San Jose State	116
21-Nov	UL-Monroe	97

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-21.6% (99)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	118 / 102
2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-7 / -6.7
2014 TO Luck/Game	-0.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (7, 6)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	2.7 (1.3)

10. The wins come late (if they come)

You can talk yourself into Hawaii improving this year. The Warriors need a quarterback and one more running back and receiver, but there are three to four candidates for each of those spots. The offensive line could be decent, and if the defensive line isn't completely awful, the back seven or eight of the defense could be excellent.

Unfortunately, the early schedule is miserable. By Oct. 4, Hawaii will have played on the road against three teams that ranked 25th or better in F/+ last year. If the Warriors don't beat Colorado in the opener, they're staring at a 1-4 start when San Diego State visits on Oct. 10. If this snowballs, Chow could be gone by the time lesser teams begin showing up on the schedule in November. The schedule makes for a tenuous tightrope walk, but if the Warriors maintain their confidence through the first five games, there are wins to be found. But you need a few ifs for this to work out well for Chow and the Warriors.