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The big 2015 Hawaii football guide: Fighting for survival

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The 128-team countdown reaches the Pacific.

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Still here for now

They're still playing football on the islands. To call that a victory is to set the bar awfully low, but it's something. When your financial struggles are well-known enough that UAB is using you as a "See? We're not alone!" reference point, and when you've won eight games in three years, survival should not be taken for granted.

It should also not be enough. Over the last 30 years, Hawaii has won at least nine games 10 times, has spent portions of five seasons ranked in the AP Top 25, and has attended 10 bowls. The low points have been quite low -- 5-31 from 1996-98, 3-9 in 2000, 4-20 from 2012-13 -- but a rebound has always come in short order. Bob Wagner (once), June Jones (three times) and Greg McMackin (once) have all led the Rainbow Warriors to 10-win seasons and bowl appearances (usually in their home stadium), and Hawaii has through the years crafted an identity for pass-happy offenses and aggressive, fun defenses. And when the teams are fun, the fans will come. Aloha Stadium averaged 43,514 in attendance during Hawaii's 12-0 run in 2007; the Warriors averaged just 27,451 in home attendance last season.

When Norm Chow took the Hawaii head coaching job in 2012, it almost felt like an obligation on both ends. Hawaii was offering the job to a native son, a Hawaii native who was once known as one of the best offensive minds in football but who hadn't actually been part of a good offense for a while. Chow, meanwhile, seemed mostly content with never having been a head coach and was advancing in age (he was 66 when he debuted), but felt the "Come home, Norm" pull and took the job at a discount; his base salary was potentially half that of his predecessor.

It felt like more a marriage of convenience than conviction, and thus far the results have not been stellar. Chow has made iffy assistant coaching hires, and after placing an absurdly unlucky team on the field in 2013 -- Hawaii ranked 89th in F/+ but finished 1-11 -- the opposite happened in 2014; the Rainbow Warriors regressed to 111th, in part because of woeful quarterback play, but fell into a couple of lucky wins and "improved" to 4-9.

One has to figure that Chow begins 2015 on one of FBS' hottest seats. His contract runs through 2016, but his buyout drops precipitously after this season. After another tough season, relieving him of his duties might be the kindest thing for everyone involved. But a little bit of desperation and urgency might not be a bad thing.

2. Continuity would be good

An iffy budget can trickle down. Not only might it limit the pool of available head coaches, but when you do find a head man, it will also limit his ability to draw assistants. So Chow's odds of locking down a good staff were already minimal before he started making some questionable choices. His first choice for offensive coordinator in 2012 was Tommy Lee, a 40-year coaching veteran who hadn't coached for five years since losing his job as Montana Western's head coach. He was an old friend of Chow and came at a good price, and Hawaii's offense ranked 123rd in Off. S&P+ in 2012.

That was the most egregious reach, but it was indicative of an ongoing problem. Lee lasted one year. Chow's first defensive coordinator, Thom Kaumeyer, lasted two. Kaumeyer's replacement, Kevin Clune, lasted one. And in 2015, Chow had to hire two new coordinators (three including special teams): Don Bailey on offense and Tom Mason on defense.

Any hire can work with the right personnel, but Mason was a relatively uninspiring hire. He was June Jones' DC for seven years at SMU, and when he had good attacking talent up front, he knew how to use it. And when he didn't, he employed a bend-don't-break defense that bent and bent and bent.

Bailey, on the other hand, was the other kind of affordable hire. He was named Football Scoop's FCS offensive coordinator of the year at Idaho State last year, leading a high-octane, pass-happy attack that averaged 40.3 points per game, ran only 45 percent of the time (which would have ranked 105th in FBS) and averaged one play every 20.6 seconds (which would have ranked about 10th). A lot of Idaho State's offense resembled the stereotypical Big Hawaii Offense of years past. We'll see if he has the personnel he needs (he might not), but this was a sensible, exciting hire. And now we'll see if, in case Chow is still at UH in 2016, he actually doesn't have to hire new guys next offseason.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-9 | Adj. Record: 1-12 | Final F/+ Rk: 111
Date Opponent Opp. F/+ Rk Score W-L Percentile
Performance
Adj. Scoring
Margin
Win
Expectancy
30-Aug Washington 58 16-17 L 48% -1.0 60%
6-Sep Oregon State 74 30-38 L 6% -35.7 1%
13-Sep Northern Iowa N/A 27-24 W 9% -31.9 21%
20-Sep at Colorado 83 12-21 L 4% -41.4 1%
4-Oct at Rice 86 14-28 L 13% -26.3 3%
11-Oct Wyoming 113 38-28 W 52% 1.0 94%
18-Oct at San Diego State 76 10-20 L 24% -16.8 9%
25-Oct Nevada 64 18-26 L 18% -21.3 10%
1-Nov Utah State 52 14-35 L 9% -31.3 0%
8-Nov at Colorado State 49 22-49 L 2% -46.7 0%
15-Nov at San Jose State 116 13-0 W 23% -17.2 39%
22-Nov UNLV 118 37-35 W 15% -23.7 27%
29-Nov at Fresno State 102 21-28 L 11% -29.0 8%

Category Offense Rk Defense Rk
S&P+ 16.5 121 35.3 109
Points Per Game 20.9 111 26.8 65

3. Three unlikely wins (and an unlikely loss)

The win expectancy numbers above are intended to say "With the key stats at hand in this game, Team A could have expected to win X percent of the time." It is an in-game probability figure.

Hawaii traded unlikely results early in the season, losing a game it should have won against Washington and winning a game it should have lost against UNI. And in conference play, the Warriors stole two victories.

Hawaii's 13-0 win over San Jose State came with a 39 percent win probability, as the Spartans outgained the Warriors by 222 yards but missed three field goals, turned the ball over on downs three times inside Hawaii's 40, and turned the ball over twice inside the 20.

The win over UNLV was even less likely. Hawaii won the yardage battle by 104 yards but lost two fumbles and lost the field position battle by 12 yards per drive. But Hawaii scored with 15 seconds left to cut UNLV's lead to 35-31, recovered an onside kick, and scored again as time expired.

It was a thrilling, stolen win.

Luck and randomness were cruel to Hawaii in 2013, when the Warriors lost five games by seven or fewer points. But luck and randomness also prevented Hawaii from another one-win campaign last year. It may have kept Chow employed (if Hawaii could have afforded to buy him out in the first place). How will the team respond to a second life of sorts?

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
Raw Category Rk Opp. Adj. Category Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 0.76 113 IsoPPP+ 71.2 122
EFFICIENCY Succ. Rt. 35.0% 123 Succ. Rt. + 80.6 125
FIELD POSITION Def. Avg. FP 29.2 56 Def. FP+ 99.0 77
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 3.5 115 Redzone S&P+ 79.8 125
TURNOVERS EXPECTED 26.6 ACTUAL 27 +0.4
Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 101 125 125 122
RUSHING 85 119 121 117
PASSING 81 125 124 123
Standard Downs 126 125 126
Passing Downs 112 112 104
Q1 Rk 120 1st Down Rk 122
Q2 Rk 125 2nd Down Rk 125
Q3 Rk 116 3rd Down Rk 121
Q4 Rk 103

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player Ht, Wt 2015
Year
Rivals 247 Comp. Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Ikaika Woolsey 6'1, 210 Jr. 2 stars 0.7444 210 416 2538 13 13 50.5% 38 8.4% 5.1
Jeremy Higgins
7 23 103 0 0 30.4% 2 8.0% 3.6
Taylor Graham
12 22 133 1 1 54.5% 1 4.3% 5.5
Beau Reilly 6'6, 190 RSFr. 2 stars 0.7593
Max Wittek 6'4, 240 Sr. 4 stars (5.9) 0.9573

4. Start with a quarterback

Don Bailey's 2014 Idaho State offense was exciting and aggressive. Quarterbacks completed 60 percent of their passes and averaged an aggressive 12.9 yards per completion while throwing picks less than 2 percent of the time and getting sacked less than 3 percent of the time. Two Bengal receivers had 60-plus catches, and five more had between 20 and 40. Plus, because of tempo, the top two running backs combined for 31 carries per game as well.

Bailey found the depth he needed in Pocatello, starting with quarterback Justin Arias. He's got options at quarterback at Hawaii, but nothing is proven. Ater two different quarterbacks (Jeremy Higgins and Taylor Graham) were lost for the season with injury, Ikaika Woolsey took over the starting job and struggled. He had his moments -- 13-for-21 for 229 yards against UNLV, 8-for-9 for 173 against Wyoming -- but the combination of a 51 percent completion rate and 12.1 yards per completion was quite awful, especially combined with a bad sack rate and double-digit interceptions.

Woolsey is the incumbent, but two others will get every opportunity in the world to overtake him. Beau Reilly kept his freshman redshirt on last season though he was the No. 2 guy by the end of the year because of injuries, but the big name is a senior newcomer: former USC quarterback Max Wittek. Wittek never found traction with the Trojans (53 percent completion rate, three scores to six picks) but still has the arm and look of a blue-chip quarterback.

The quarterback will bear the weight of Bailey's offense. Is one up to it?

Running Back

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2015
Year
Rivals 247 Comp. Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles Fum.
Lost
Steven Lakalaka RB 5'10, 215 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8578 159 646 2 4.1 3.6 31.4% 1 0
Joey Iosefa RB
151 617 8 4.1 4.4 27.2% 2 1
Diocemy Saint Juste RB 5'8, 180 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8256 73 372 3 5.1 5.9 37.0% 3 1
Ikaika Woolsey QB 6'1, 210 Jr. 2 stars 0.7444 72 444 1 6.2 5.6 47.2% 4 3
Pereese Joas RB 5'6, 170 Sr. NR NR 7 67 0 9.6 5.6 71.4% 0 0
Keelan Ewaliko WR 5'11, 175 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7905 7 47 1 6.7 4.0 57.1% 0 0
DJ Riggins RB 5'10, 175 Fr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8310
Melvin Davis RB 6'2, 235 Jr. NR 0.7900
Paul Harris RB 5'11, 190 Jr. NR 0.8000







5. Then find a running back

Rushing stats are tricky because you don't immediately know anything about the quality of the blocking the line delivered, the number of defenders in the box, et cetera. With good blocking and a good passing game, perhaps Steven Lakalaka could deliver high-quality numbers. But he didn't last year. His 31 percent opportunity rate (percentage of carries that gained at least 5 yards) ranked 88th among the 98 rushers with at least 150 carries. His 3.59 highlight yards per opportunity also ranked 88th. He offered neither efficiency nor explosiveness, and you need one or the other. Diocemy Saint Juste produced much better averages in fewer carries and went off in two of Hawaii's wins (combined against Wyoming and UNLV: 28 carries, 216 yards), but for one reason or another, he only averaged six carries per game.

That leads you to believe that any of three newcomers could see the field pretty quickly in a Bailey offense that demands a high volume of playmakers. D.J. Riggins is the rare three-star Hawaii freshman, Melvin Davis is a big, reasonably touted JUCO transfer, and Paul Harris is an All-American JUCO return man who saw some success on offense, too. If one of these three emerges as a quality threat, the numbers could be here.

There are fewer concerns in the receiving corps, at least from a volume perspective. Last year's top two targets are back; Quinton Pedroza wasn't an amazing No. 1 receiver, but Marcus Kemp was just about the only big-play threat Hawaii had last year, and big junior Vasquez Haynes returns after missing 2014. If one of three youngsters -- sophomore Ammon Barker, sophomore Keelan Ewaliko and BYU transfer Dylan Collie -- emerges, the numbers here are probably fine, too.

Receiving Corps

Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2015
Year
Rivals 247 Comp. Targets Catches Yards Catch Rate Target
Rate
%SD Yds/
Target
NEY Real Yds/
Target
RYPR
Quinton Pedroza WR-Z 6'2, 220 Sr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8777 114 59 674 51.8% 25.6% 52.6% 5.9 -72 5.8 53.1
Marcus Kemp WR-X 6'4, 185 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7819 109 56 800 51.4% 24.5% 56.0% 7.3 91 7.3 63.1
Scott Harding WR-F
65 34 457 52.3% 14.6% 53.8% 7.0 28 6.9 36.0
Vasquez Haynes (2013) WR 6'2, 215 Jr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8122 46 29 354 63.0% 9.5% 45.0% 7.7 -1 8.9 35.6
Donnie King Jr. WR
28 14 199 50.0% 6.3% 67.9% 7.1 21 7.4 15.7
Ammon Barker WR-X 6'4, 200 So. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8210 26 10 162 38.5% 5.8% 38.5% 6.2 26 5.2 12.8
Harold Moleni TE 6'2, 245 Sr. 2 stars (4.9) 0.7482 23 10 74 43.5% 5.2% 69.6% 3.2 -58 3.5 5.8
Justin Vele FB 6'0, 245 Sr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7000 17 13 90 76.5% 3.8% 70.6% 5.3 -62 4.7 7.1
Joey Iosefa RB
15 11 73 73.3% 3.4% 20.0% 4.9 -57 2.9 5.8
Steven Lakalaka RB 5'10, 215 Jr. 3 stars (5.7) 0.8578 11 7 53 63.6% 2.5% 27.3% 4.8 -32 5.6 4.2
Keelan Ewaliko WR-F 5'11, 175 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7905 10 6 141 60.0% 2.2% 70.0% 14.1 67 11.6 11.1
Jordan Pu'u-Robinson TE
10 7 50 70.0% 2.2% 50.0% 5.0 -33 5.0 3.9
Metuisela 'Unga TE 6'5, 250 So. NR NR 3 1 21 33.3% 0.7% 66.7% 7.0 7 8.9 1.7
David Manoa TE 6'3, 210 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7685 3 0 0 0.0% 0.7% 66.7% 0.0 -4 0.0 0.0
Diocemy Saint Juste RB 5'8, 180 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8256 3 1 -1 33.3% 0.7% 0.0% -0.3 -15 N/A -0.1
Ryan Pasoquen WR-Z 6'0, 190 Sr. NR NR 2 0 0 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 -3 N/A 0.0
Dylan Collie WR 5'10, 175 Fr. 3 stars NR








Offensive Line

Category Adj.
Line Yds
Std.
Downs

LY/carry
Pass.
Downs

LY/carry
Opp.
Rate
Power
Success
Rate
Stuff
Rate
Adj.
Sack Rate
Std.
Downs

Sack Rt.
Pass.
Downs

Sack Rt.
Team 91.3 2.85 3.49 34.1% 79.2% 17.0% 80.9 6.1% 9.0%
Rank 104 81 43 113 5 34 98 91 88
Player Pos. Ht, Wt 2015
Year
Rivals 247 Comp. Career Starts Honors/Notes
Ben Clarke LT 6'3, 285 Sr. 2 stars 0.7000 37
Sean Shigematsu RT
27
Kody Afusia C
25
Dave Lefotu RG
24
Dejon Allen RG 6'2, 270 So. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8472 11
Frank Loyd Jr. RT
7
Brenden Urban C 6'1, 295 Sr. NR NR 6
Elijah Tupai LG 6'4, 265 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8150 3
Leo Koloamatangi LG 6'5, 275 Jr. NR 0.7733 3
John Wa'a LT 6'4, 310 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7832 2
RJ Hollis RG 6'4, 285 Jr. NR NR

Matt Norman OL 6'5, 250 Jr. NR 0.7000

6. Then find some new linemen

Relatively speaking, Hawaii's line was a strength last year. The Warriors couldn't create opportunities for their backs (which may have been the backs' fault) but excelled in short-yardage situations and kept defenders out of the backfield on rushes. They did this despite throwing out six different starting line combinations throughout the season, including each of the first four weeks of the year.

Unfortunately, while shuffling can often result in a nice bank of experience, four players who had combined for 83 career starts are now gone. Three-year starting tackle Ben Clarke is back, as are three sophomores who combined for 16 starts last year, but while this line might not be worse than it was last year, it might not be better either.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
Raw Category Rk Opp. Adj. Category Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP 0.91 99 IsoPPP+ 90.2 98
EFFICIENCY Succ. Rt. 40.6% 59 Succ. Rt. + 96.5 81
FIELD POSITION Off. Avg. FP 29.3 86 Off. FP+ 97.0 99
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Trip in 40 4.3 60 Redzone S&P+ 90.2 105
TURNOVERS EXPECTED 19.9 ACTUAL 20.0 +0.1
Category Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL 84 93 85 98
RUSHING 75 67 77 63
PASSING 92 111 78 118
Standard Downs 78 70 82
Passing Downs 111 105 114
Q1 Rk 118 1st Down Rk 67
Q2 Rk 83 2nd Down Rk 89
Q3 Rk 63 3rd Down Rk 96
Q4 Rk 68

Defensive Line

Category Adj.
Line Yds
Std.
Downs

LY/carry
Pass.
Downs

LY/carry
Opp.
Rate
Power
Success
Rate
Stuff
Rate
Adj.
Sack Rate
Std.
Downs

Sack Rt.
Pass.
Downs

Sack Rt.
Team 92.3 2.99 3.50 36.9% 71.7% 15.5% 88.3 5.0% 6.0%
Rank 97 71 80 39 93 113 89 52 90
Name Pos Ht, Wt 2015
Year
Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Beau Yap DE
13 39.0 5.3% 8.5 4.5 0 1 1 0
Kennedy Tulimasealii DE 6'1, 280 Jr. 3 stars (5.6) 0.8369 13 34.0 4.6% 9.5 2.5 0 1 1 0
Luke Shawley DE 6'3, 240 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7000 13 29.5 4.0% 0.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Moses Samia NT
13 24.5 3.3% 1.5 0.0 0 1 0 0
Marcus Malepeai DE
8 19.5 2.6% 5.5 3.0 0 0 1 0
Calen Friel NT
12 6.5 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Niko Uti DL
8 2.5 0.3% 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Kory Rasmussen DL 6'2, 270 Jr. 2 stars 0.7961
Penitito Faalologo DE 5'11, 250 So. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7000
David Manoa DE 6'3, 210 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7685
Sione Kauhi DE 6'5, 240 Fr. NR NR








7. No line injuries, please

With players like defensive end Margus Hunt and linebackers Taylor Reed, Stephon Sanders and Ja'Gared Davis in recent years, Tom Mason proved that if he has disruptive talent in his front seven, he'll figure out how to use it. And in Kennedy Tulimasealii, he has at least one potential grenade up front. Linebackers Simon Poti, Julian Gener and Benetton Fonua have shown decent athleticism as well.

But after losing five of last year's top seven, the line has been drained terribly of available talent. Tulimasealii and Luke Shawley are the only returning linemen who recorded a tackle last year (and Shawley had no disruptive presence whatsoever), and while some newcomers could help out, there are barely enough names to fill in a two-deep. Any injuries up front could result in either walk-ons or undersized freshmen seeing the field.

Linebackers

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2015
Year
Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jerrol Garcia-Williams (2013) LB 6'2, 215 Sr. NR 0.7000 12 56.0 7.1% 3.0 1.0 0 1 0 0
Simon Poti ILB 6'0, 220 Sr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7000 13 51.0 6.9% 3.0 2.0 1 0 1 0
TJ Taimatuia OLB
13 43.0 5.8% 7.0 2.0 2 0 0 0
Julian Gener ILB 5'11, 235 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8056 7 41.0 5.5% 5.5 1.0 0 1 0 0
Tevita Lataimua ILB
8 35.5 4.8% 2.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Benetton Fonua ILB 6'0, 245 Sr. 2 stars 0.7659 13 35.0 4.7% 4.0 1.0 1 2 1 0
Lance Williams OLB 6'0, 220 Sr. 2 stars NR 13 18.0 2.4% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Jeremy Castro OLB 6'4, 240 So. 4 stars (5.8) 0.8861 13 15.5 2.1% 2.5 2.0 0 1 0 0
Austin Slade-Matautia LB 6'1, 220 Jr. NR NR
Rashaan Falemalu LB 6'1, 210 RSFr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7633
Malachi Mageo LB 6'2, 190 RSFr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7000
Makani Kema-Kaleiwahea
(Arizona)
LB 6'3, 240 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) NR
Russell Williams LB 6'1, 225 So. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7900
Manly Williams LB 6'2, 180 Fr. 2 stars (5.3) 0.7867








8. A truly awesome linebacking corps

If the line holds up, and it probably won't, the linebackers could thrive. Five of last year's top seven are back, Jerrol Garcia-Williams is back from an ACL injury, UCLA transfer Jeremy Castro could be ready for a breakthrough, and newcomers like Makani Kema-Kaleiwahea (Arizona) and Russell Williams (JUCO) might demand playing time. Mason's 2013 SMU linebackers were aggressive and creative, and he's got similar tools here. But it all depends on the line.

Meanwhile, despite an only decent pass rush, the secondary made some plays, too. Corners Ne'Quan Phillips, Dee Maggitt and Nick Nelson combined for 20 passes defensed, and Phillips, safety Trayvon Henderson and nickelback Gaetano DeMattei combined for 13 tackles for loss. From a recruiting perspective, the defensive backs might have been the most well-touted unit on the team, and the playmaking helped to back that up.

Unfortunately, there was quite a bit of boom-or-bust here, too. Hawaii ranked a decent 78th in Passing Success Rate+ (efficiency) but a miserable 118th in Passing IsoPPP+ (explosiveness). Mason tried to stay pretty conservative with his DBs at SMU, though, so it will be interesting to see what changes. Maggitt and leading tackler Taz Stevenson are gone, but Henderson, Phillips, Nelson and DeMattei are back, and three-star newcomers Dejaun Butler, Solomon Matautia and Cameron Hayes could build nice depth. There are pieces to like here, especially if Mason can tamp down on the big plays allowed.

Secondary

Name Pos Ht, Wt 2015
Year
Rivals 247 Comp. GP Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Taz Stevenson S
12 78.5 10.6% 0.5 0 0 0 1 0
Trayvon Henderson S 6'0, 190 Jr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8093 11 58.5 7.9% 3 1 2 0 0 0
Ne'Quan Phillips CB 5'9, 185 Sr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8135 13 50.5 6.8% 6 3 1 6 1 0
Dee Maggitt CB
13 40.5 5.5% 2 0 0 7 1 0
Nick Nelson CB 6'0, 190 So. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7926 10 33.5 4.5% 1 0 0 6 1 0
Gaetano DeMattei NB 5'8, 175 Sr. NR NR 13 23.5 3.2% 4 1 0 0 0 0
Daniel Lewis Jr. S 5'11, 180 So. 2 stars (5.3) 0.8141 11 18.5 2.5% 0 0 2 1 0 0
Michael Martin S
13 9.0 1.2% 0.5 0 0 0 0 0
Marrell Jackson S 6'0, 185 Sr. NR NR 10 8.5 1.1% 0 0 1 0 0 0
Jalen Rogers CB 6'1, 190 Jr. 2 stars (5.2) 0.7000 6 6.5 0.9% 0 0 1 1 0 0
Jerrell Jackson DB 6'0, 175 So. 2 stars (5.4) 0.7993
Dejaun Butler CB 5'11, 180 Jr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8033
Solomon Matautia S 6'1, 220 Fr. 3 stars (5.5) 0.8331
Cameron Hayes DB 5'11, 175 Fr. 2 stars (5.4) 0.8115








Special Teams

Punter Ht, Wt 2015
Year
Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Scott Harding 86 41.3 2 12 34 53.5%
Kicker Ht, Wt 2015
Year
Kickoffs Avg TB OOB TB%
Tyler Hadden 58 62.0 27 1 46.6%
Place-Kicker Ht, Wt 2015
Year
PAT FG
(0-39)
Pct FG
(40+)
Pct
Tyler Hadden 28-28 15-19 78.9% 3-4 75.0%
Returner Pos. Ht, Wt 2015
Year
Returns Avg. TD
Keelan Ewaliko KR 5'11, 175 So. 29 20.3 0
Diocemy Saint Juste KR 5'8, 180 Jr. 6 18.0 0
Scott Harding PR 25 8.8 0
Category Rk
Special Teams F/+ 36
Field Goal Efficiency 70
Punt Return Efficiency 88
Kick Return Efficiency 93
Punt Efficiency 2
Kickoff Efficiency 57
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency 1

9. Mr. Diversity is gone

I don't think we appreciated Scott Harding enough in the college football universe. He averaged 41 yards per punt, pinned opponents inside the 20 34 times, and helped Hawaii to rank second in the country in Punt Efficiency. Oh yeah, and he averaged 8.8 yards per punt return and averaged 7.0 yards per target as Ikaika Woolsey's No. 3 receiver. One guy did those things!

Harding's numbers were certainly replaceable at receiver and returns, but his punting was a major field position weapon for a team that needed one. Losing him might turn a top-40 special teams unit into a top-80 special teams unit.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date Opponent 2014 F/+ Rk
3-Sep Colorado 83
12-Sep at Ohio State 1
19-Sep UC Davis NR
26-Sep at Wisconsin 25
3-Oct at Boise State 21
10-Oct San Diego State 76
17-Oct at New Mexico 94
24-Oct at Nevada 64
31-Oct Air Force 48
7-Nov at UNLV 118
14-Nov Fresno State 102
21-Nov San Jose State 116
21-Nov UL-Monroe 97
Five-Year F/+ Rk -21.6% (99)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 118 / 102
2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin* -7 / -6.7
2014 TO Luck/Game -0.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) 13 (7, 6)
2014 Second-order wins (difference) 2.7 (1.3)

10. The wins come late (if they come)

You can talk yourself into Hawaii improving this year. The Warriors need a quarterback and one more running back and receiver, but there are three to four candidates for each of those spots. The offensive line could be decent, and if the defensive line isn't completely awful, the back seven or eight of the defense could be excellent.

Unfortunately, the early schedule is miserable. By Oct. 4, Hawaii will have played on the road against three teams that ranked 25th or better in F/+ last year. If the Warriors don't beat Colorado in the opener, they're staring at a 1-4 start when San Diego State visits on Oct. 10. If this snowballs, Chow could be gone by the time lesser teams begin showing up on the schedule in November. The schedule makes for a tenuous tightrope walk, but if the Warriors maintain their confidence through the first five games, there are wins to be found. But you need a few ifs for this to work out well for Chow and the Warriors.