The big 2015 Fresno State football guide: Waiting for the time to strike

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1. It all started so well

After falling to 4-9 in Pat Hill's final season, Fresno State hired Tim DeRuyter in 2012, and he went 20-6 in two years and took home the 2013 Mountain West title. The former defensive coordinator and 3-4 whiz at Ohio, Nevada, Air Force and Texas A&M found the perfect set of personnel for his aggressive needs.

It just makes sense when Fresno State is good. The Bulldogs are one of not too many California mid-majors and are perfectly placed three hours from San Francisco and 3.5 hours from Los Angeles (barring traffic), with access to the surplus of athletes that the Pac-12 couldn't snap up. Pat Hill and Jim Sweeney were both able to milk this convenience over long stretches of time -- Sweeney won at least eight games nine times from 1982-93, and Hill won at least seven games 11 times from 1999-2010. Both lost their respective ways at the end, DeRuyter was able to bring energy to an athletic squad that had gone just 4-9 in 2011, and the wins quickly rolled in.

And then last year happened. Quarterback Derek Carr, receivers Davante Adams and Isaiah Burse, two starting offensive linemen and three of the top five defensive linemen all left. The defense regressed, and the offense regressed a lot. Fresno State started and finished the season playing like one of the worst teams in the country but played just well enough in the middle to win the MWC West, maybe the single weakest division in FBS last year. They got rocked in the MWC title game, got rocked in a bowl they probably didn't deserve to make and finished the season 6-8, ranked just 102nd in F/+.

In the offseason, a load of players graduated, transferred or were asked to transfer. The result: returning quarterbacks threw 41 career passes last year, one returning running back carried more than five times, two returning wideouts caught more than eight passes and one returning defensive lineman had more than 7.5 tackles. The units that faced turnover in 2014 are double-dipping in 2015.

Now DeRuyter starts his fourth season in the middle of a contradiction: the roster is like what a first-year coach might inherit, talented and fast but young and thin. But DeRuyter is a fourth-year coach with a seat quite a bit warmer than it was last year. If he survives 2015, the base of talent and athleticism on the roster could mature into a solid team once again. But this could be a tough year.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-8 | Adj. Record: 6-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 102
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	at USC	16	13-52	L	8%	-33.4	0%
6-Sep	at Utah	29	27-59	L	6%	-37.1	0%
13-Sep	Nebraska	30	19-55	L	6%	-36.4	0%
20-Sep	Southern Utah	N/A	56-16	W	73%	14.0	100%
26-Sep	at New Mexico	94	35-24	W	54%	2.2	79%
3-Oct	San Diego State	76	24-13	W	70%	12.2	76%
10-Oct	at UNLV	118	27-30	L	40%	-5.7	70%
17-Oct	at Boise State	21	27-37	L	37%	-7.7	9%
1-Nov	Wyoming	113	17-45	L	3%	-45.7	0%
8-Nov	San Jose State	116	38-24	W	58%	4.7	89%
22-Nov	at Nevada	64	40-20	W	70%	12.2	88%
29-Nov	Hawaii	111	28-21	W	57%	4.2	92%
6-Dec	at Boise State	21	14-28	L	17%	-22.2	0%
24-Dec	vs. Rice	86	6-30	L	4%	-40.8	0%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	23.7	96	33.4	97
Points Per Game	26.5	85	32.4	101

2. The middle was decent

Fresno State's final rankings -- 102nd in F/+, 85th in Off. S&P+, 101st in Def. S&P+ -- are a little bit misleading. For the middle two-thirds of the season, the Bulldogs played at close to a top-60 level. But at the beginning and the end of the year, they were one of the 10 or 15 worst teams in FBS.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 3 games): 7 percent (record: 0-3)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 9 games): 51 percent (record: 6-3)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 2 games): 11 percent (record: 0-2)

It was a team-wide struggle. Granted, four of the five awful games were against top-30 teams, but in these five games the Bulldogs averaged 4.1 yards per play and allowed 7.0. In the middle nine games (mostly against worse teams), they gained 5.8 and allowed 5.9. The defense still had plenty of rocky moments -- allowing 9.8 yards per play against Wyoming was particularly egregious -- but for a while the offense raised its game, even taking competition into account.

The peak lasted just long enough for Fresno to easily take down both San Diego State and Nevada, two teams that were better than them over the full season, and win the MWC West. And then the Bulldogs either trailed off or reverted to form.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.88	47	IsoPPP+	84.1	106
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	36.0%	117	Succ. Rt. +	86.5	116
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.5	65	Def. FP+	101.0	53
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.1	88	Redzone S&P+	91.3	92
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.6		ACTUAL	27	+4.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	62	114	120	106
RUSHING	46	105	109	96
PASSING	72	115	117	103
Standard Downs		110	122	97
Passing Downs		110	103	108

Q1 Rk	118	1st Down Rk	111
Q2 Rk	110	2nd Down Rk	103
Q3 Rk	61	3rd Down Rk	90
Q4 Rk	84

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Brian Burrell					252	432	2620	22	18	58.3%	34	7.3%	5.2
Brandon Connette					29	54	299	2	3	53.7%	4	6.9%	4.7
Zack Greenlee	6'1, 200	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8777	18	41	213	1	0	43.9%	2	4.7%	4.8
Kilton Anderson	6'3, 207	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8023
Chason Virgil	6'1, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8697

3. Insert young, highly-touted quarterback here

We know a Dave Schramm offense can work. In his first two years at Fresno, the Bulldogs ranked 33rd and 17th, respectively, in Off. S&P+. That was with a loaded cast of stars, obviously, but it proved that if Schramm has horses, he knows how to use them.

Schramm didn't have them in 2014 and might not in 2015, either. Duke transfer Brandon Connette was dreadful to start the season (23-for-41, 245 yards, one touchdown and three picks against USC and Utah), and Brian Burrell eased into the starting role. But while he did still have star receiver Josh Harper, this was a new quarterback throwing to mostly new receivers, and it didn't go well. The running game, which wasn't amazing even in 2013, struggled to make up the difference.

Now, the quarterback unit and receiving corps are double-dipping in the turnover department. Connette graduated, and Burrell left, leaving a battle between three young, former three-star recruits. There is plenty of upside among them, but as Zack Greenlee proved in completing just 44 percent of his passes in a bit role as a redshirt freshman, it sometimes takes a while to approach your ceiling. Greenlee is the de facto old-guy on the depth chart now, but redshirt freshman Kilton Anderson and incoming freshman (and one-time Mississippi State commit) Chason Virgil could both have a shot. All of them were in for spring, and all saw time with the No. 1 offense.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Marteze Waller	RB	5'11, 209	Sr.	NR	0.7000	226	1368	11	6.1	7.0	39.4%	1	0
Josh Quezada	RB					134	525	5	3.9	4.1	29.1%	0	0
Brian Burrell	QB					76	552	3	7.3	7.2	48.7%	3	2
Brandon Connette	QB					34	145	2	4.3	5.5	32.4%	0	0
T.J. Thomas	ILB					11	70	1	6.4	3.5	54.5%	0	0
Zack Greenlee	QB	6'1, 200	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8777	10	52	0	5.2	3.1	50.0%	0	0
Darryl Cash	WR					7	57	0	8.1	9.3	42.9%	0	0
LeKendrick Williams	WR					6	36	0	6.0	2.5	50.0%	2	1
Dillon Root	WR					5	28	0	5.6	6.0	40.0%	2	1
Dontel James	RB					5	8	0	1.6	2.6	20.0%	0	0
Malique Micenheimer	RB	6'1, 239	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8700
Chris Moliga	RB	5'11, 205	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000
Bryson Oglesby	RB	6'0, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8509
Dejonte O'Neal	RB	5'7, 157	Fr.	NR	NR

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Josh Harper	WR					143	90	1097	62.9%	29.9%	58.7%	7.7	5	7.7	89.4
Aaron Peck	WR	6'3, 213	Sr.	NR	0.7100	59	32	419	54.2%	12.3%	54.2%	7.1	19	7.0	34.1
Greg Watson	WR					53	35	369	66.0%	11.1%	52.8%	7.0	-52	6.7	30.1
Josh Quezada	RB					43	33	223	76.7%	9.0%	55.8%	5.2	-164	5.1	18.2
Delvon Hardaway	WR	6'1, 191	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8126	41	23	279	56.1%	8.6%	61.0%	6.8	-7	6.9	22.7
Marteze Waller	RB	5'11, 209	Sr.	NR	0.7000	36	27	120	75.0%	7.5%	61.1%	3.3	-198	3.3	9.8
Da'Mari Scott	WR					22	8	214	36.4%	4.6%	45.5%	9.7	103	9.9	17.4
Chad Olsen	TE	6'5, 222	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7633	18	13	150	72.2%	3.8%	55.6%	8.3	-4	8.5	12.2
LeKendrick Williams	WR					17	9	39	52.9%	3.5%	76.5%	2.3	-74	3.3	3.2
Dillon Root	WR					16	10	85	62.5%	3.3%	37.5%	5.3	-37	4.9	6.9
Justin Johnson	WR	6'1, 207	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8221	14	8	72	57.1%	2.9%	50.0%	5.1	-27	5.6	5.9
Malique Micenheimer	RB	6'1, 239	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8700	10	7	48	70.0%	2.1%	60.0%	4.8	-35	4.7	3.9
Brandon Connette	QB					3	1	4	33.3%	0.6%	66.7%	1.3	-10	1.2	0.3
Jeff Camilli	ILB	6'3, 263	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7993	2	1	3	50.0%	0.4%	50.0%	1.5	-10	1.7	0.2
Darrell Fuery	WR	6'0, 195	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7533
Keyan Williams	WR	5'10, 182	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8144
KeeSean Johnson	WR	6'1, 179	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7556
Jamire Jordan	WR	5'11, 170	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7894
Jared Rice	TE	6'5, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8389

4. Who gets touches?

At receiver, Aaron Peck is a decent big-play threat (though he would need to either come up with more big plays or raise the success rate to be a league-average threat), and there are plenty of former star recruits and solid athletes in the mix, from sophomore Delvon Hardaway to senior Justin Johnson to redshirt freshman Keyan Williams. In theory, if you throw enough options out there, your odds of coming up with something viable are good. But Peck and Johnson are the only upperclassmen, and Fresno State at its best is spreading the ball around to a ton of guys. While Josh Harper was targeted 10 times per game, five other players were targeted at least twice per game. A lot of redshirt freshmen or sophomores are going to see passes; that doesn't always work out well, especially with a young quarterback throwing the passes.

Meanwhile, because of tempo, Fresno managed to hand to Marteze Waller and Josh Quezada a combined 360 times last year as well. Waller's back, but almost nobody else is. That means either an absurd load for Waller (who might be big and explosive enough to handle it), or more freshmen and redshirt freshmen getting touches. Schramm is going to be riding with the young guys this year. That probably means exciting things for 2017. But for 2015, not so much.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	94.2	2.88	3.25	38.2%	72.7%	18.5%	98.1	4.5%	9.3%
Rank	94	77	67	76	27	54	72	61	96

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Cody Wichmann	RG					50	2014 2nd All-MWC
Justin Northern	RT	6'5, 285	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	27
Alex Fifita	LT	6'4, 303	Sr.	NR	NR	25
Bo Bonnheim	C	6'2, 283	Sr.	NR	NR	21
Sean Rubalcava	LG					14
Josh Tremblay	LT					0
Aaron Mitchell	LG	6'2, 291	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7806	0
Jacob Vazquez	C	6'2, 283	Jr.	NR	NR	0
Alan Gonzalez	RG					0
David Patterson	RT	6'4, 284	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926	0
Elijah Cox	OL	6'4, 274	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7733	0
Bobby Johnson	OL	6'5, 300	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7826
Jacob Hicks	OL	6'5, 308	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759
Isaiah Trevino	OL	6'6, 320	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8414
Donnie Greene	OL	6'3, 280	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8289
Zack Kinninger	OL	6'5, 295	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8081

5. How much is a Wichmann worth?

If you compare Fresno State's line stats to its overall offensive stats, you get the impression that the line was a strength. The Bulldogs were great in short-yardage situations and suffered few negative rushes, and the sack rates weren't awful. Three two-year (or close to it) starters return, but all-conference guard Cody Wichmann doesn't. How much were he and fellow guard Sean Rubalcava responsible for the short-yardage success? And how much of a role will some well-touted freshmen and redshirt freshmen play? (And are you catching onto a "young guys" trend here?)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.96	115	IsoPPP+	92.5	89
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.3%	56	Succ. Rt. +	102.3	57
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.4	63	Off. FP+	102.0	38
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.9	115	Redzone S&P+	107.5	40
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.2		ACTUAL	20.0	-2.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	111	76	57	89
RUSHING	100	57	54	64
PASSING	99	103	71	114
Standard Downs		67	51	85
Passing Downs		101	81	103

Q1 Rk	108	1st Down Rk	103
Q2 Rk	70	2nd Down Rk	111
Q3 Rk	98	3rd Down Rk	93
Q4 Rk	64

6. When attacking goes wrong

Defense dragged Fresno State down a little bit in 2013 and certainly didn't pick the Bulldogs up when the offense regressed. They wanted to attack and occasionally did so effectively, but in the process of attacking, they got sliced up in the secondary. The Bulldogs gave up 31 passes of 30-plus yards (second-most in the country) and 18 passes of 40-plus (most).

The secondary should be more experienced this time around, but Fresno's two best pass rushers, nose guard Tyeler Davison and linebacker Donavon Lewis, are gone. Stop me if you've heard this before, but freshmen and sophomores will likely play a large role up front. The Bulldogs basically played three linemen last year, and two are gone. Even if some young athletes start playing well, they're going to play like young athletes, and Fresno's decent line stats will probably regress.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	103.7	2.89	3.17	33.6%	66.7%	18.3%	105.3	6.0%	7.3%
Rank	46	63	50	16	60	79	58	38	66

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tyeler Davison	NG					14	47.0	5.8%	12.0	7.5	0	0	1	0
Todd Hunt	DE	6'3, 263	Sr.	NR	NR	14	43.5	5.3%	5.0	2.5	0	0	0	0
Maurice Poyadue	DE					13	19.5	2.4%	2.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Nathan Madsen	NG	6'4, 275	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7633	14	7.5	0.9%	2.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Claudell Louis	DE	6'4, 292	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8141	14	7.0	0.9%	1.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Ioane Sagapolu	NG					13	7.0	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Ryan Steele	NG	6'0, 271	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8194
Kyle Hendrickson	DE	6'4, 253	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7856
Mason Bradley	DE	6'4, 240	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7793

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Karl Mickelsen	MIKE					14	83.5	10.3%	7.0	2.0	2	2	3	0
Kyrie Wilson	WILL	6'2, 238	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8600	14	71.0	8.7%	6.5	1.0	2	0	2	0
Ejiro Ederaine	OLB	6'3, 221	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000	14	54.0	6.6%	12.5	2.0	0	2	1	0
Donavon Lewis	OLB					14	44.5	5.5%	8.5	6.0	1	0	1	0
Jeff Camilli	WILL	6'3, 263	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7993	14	37.5	4.6%	4.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Hughes	OLB	6'3, 216	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000	14	33.0	4.1%	3.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Xavier Ulutu	MIKE	6'1, 248	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8149	13	16.5	2.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Adam DeCosta	LB					14	7.0	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Michael Lazarus	ILB	6'2, 233	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8788	7	5.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tobenna Okeke	ILB	6'2, 210	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7819	13	4.0	0.5%	2.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Kyrian Obidiegwu	OLB	5'11, 207	Sr.	NR	NR	14	4.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
T.J. Thomas	ILB				NR	11	3.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Justin Green	OLB	6'3, 183	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926
Stephen Van Hook	OLB	6'1, 236	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8184
Robert Stanley	ILB	6'3, 224	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8056
James Bailey	OLB	6'2, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8202
Nela Otukolo	ILB	5'11, 240	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8187

7. Everybody in the Mountain West has good linebackers

As we roll through this MWC preview series, it seems like I'm saying "[Team A] should have really good, experienced linebackers this year" quite a bit. I've said it about UNLV and Hawaii, and now I'm going to say it about Fresno State.

Seniors Kyrie Wilson and Ejiro Ederaine are strong run-stoppers for a defense that desperately needs them, and while almost no linemen played last year, quite a few LBs saw action. Two starters are gone, including the ace-blitzer (Donavon Lewis), but five returnees had at least 16 tackles. And the number of former three-star recruits (per the 247Sports Composite) attempting to work into the rotation is large.

Because of the returning personnel, there's a chance that last year's strength (run defense) gets stronger while the pass defense gets weaker. In a pass-happy conference, that's far from optimal, but at least if you can force opponents to become one-dimensional, you can create more opportunities to attack like DeRuyter has always wanted his defense to attack.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Derron Smith	S					14	79.5	9.8%	2.5	0	1	7	0	2
Charles Washington	CB	5'11, 197	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7000	14	70.0	8.6%	5.5	1	2	7	0	0
Curtis Riley	CB					13	47.5	5.8%	4.5	1	0	8	1	0
Malcolm Washington	CB	6'2, 165	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759	14	29.5	3.6%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Shannon Edwards	S	5'11, 191	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8472	12	22.0	2.7%	1	1	0	3	0	0
Jamal Ellis	CB	5'11, 174	Jr.	NR	0.7000	12	19.5	2.4%	1	0	1	2	0	0
Dalen Jones	S	6'1, 196	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8407	13	13.5	1.7%	1	1	0	6	1	0
Bryan Harper	CB					5	12.5	1.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Stratton Brown	DB	6'1, 186	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7819
Alan Wright	S	6'1, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8059
Mike Bell	DB	6'3, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8482
A.J. Greeley	DB	5'11, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8417
Jalen Smith	DB	5'11, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7916

8. Potential is not a problem

When a cornerback logs 70.0 tackles in a season, either he's fantastic in help defense, or his man is catching a ton of passes. For Charles Washington, it was likely both. Fresno defensive backs (including Washington) ended up having to chase receivers down quite a bit, but his 5.5 tackles for loss suggest he was spending quite a bit of time near the line of scrimmage.

Washington's return is probably a net gain, as is the return of five of last year's top seven DBs. And in terms of speed and play-making potential, there's a lot to like here. Safety Dalen Jones managed to break up six passes in limited opportunities, and a few of this year's most highly-touted signees -- JUCO transfer Alan Wright, freshmen Mike Bell and A.J. Greeley -- are DBs. The ceiling appears high, and maybe this is an instance where a fast unit needed just a little more experience to start playing at a high level. The experience is there this year. We'll see about the rest, especially considering a potential regression in the pass rush.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Garrett Swanson	6'0, 217	Sr.	82	40.7	3	32	26	70.7%
Brian Burrell			3	30.3	0	0	3	100.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Garrett Swanson	6'0, 217	Sr.	69	59.1	15	3	21.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Kody Kroening	5'10, 150	So.	45-46	6-9	66.7%	3-5	60.0%
Colin McGuire			1-2	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Dillon Root	KR			25	19.3	0
Da'Mari Scott	KR			16	20.6	0
LeKendrick Williams	PR			11	8.9	0
Derron Smith	PR			9	11.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	43
Field Goal Efficiency	93
Punt Return Efficiency	23
Kick Return Efficiency	113
Punt Efficiency	77
Kickoff Efficiency	2
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	54

9. Got a return man?

Fresno State is starting over in the returns department; this is not much of a problem in kick returns (not a strength last year), but LeKendrick Williams and Derron Smith were solid, efficient punt returners. If one of these new, young receivers or defensive backs can do well in this regard, the rest of the special teams unit should be just fine. Garrett Swanson was a fair catch machine on punts, and his kickoffs, while not incredibly deep, set the coverage unit up well to prevent returns. This could be a top-30 or top-40 special teams unit if the returns don't stink.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
5-Sep	Abilene Christian	NR
12-Sep	at Ole Miss	5
19-Sep	Utah	29
26-Sep	at San Jose State	116
3-Oct	at San Diego State	76
10-Oct	Utah State	52
17-Oct	UNLV	118
24-Oct	at Air Force	48
7-Nov	Nevada	64
14-Nov	at Hawaii	111
21-Nov	at BYU	46
28-Nov	Colorado State	49

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-4.2% (67)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	75 / 82
2014 TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-7 / -0.4
2014 TO Luck/Game	-2.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	11 (6, 5)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	6.0 (0.0)

10. Still the champ (technically)

Last year, Fresno State was about three different teams, and while it's difficult to figure out which was the real one, it doesn't really matter because newcomers and youngsters are going to be playing serious starting or second-string roles at quarterback, running back, receiver, offensive guard, defensive line and defensive back. There are some nice, experienced pieces -- Marteze Waller, Aaron Peck, a few offensive linemen and linebackers, Charles Washington -- but youth will determine whether Fresno State is a contender in this year's MWC West race.

And here's where we remind ourselves that, inconsistent or not, Fresno State did still win the West. The Bulldogs did still beat SDSU and Nevada by a combined 31 points. They did still play pretty well in their first trip to Boise. The high points were still pretty high, even if the overall regression was stark.

Fresno State could back into the West title again -- it's not like SDSU or Nevada are going to be amazing -- but the primary goal for the Bulldogs is to look just good enough to keep DeRuyter's name from rising too far on the hot seat lists. There was some serious disposal of dead weight at the end of the season, and this team is going to be too young to play consistently well. But if the core of the roster and coaching staff stick together into 2016 and 2017, the Bulldogs are going to be awfully good. But 2015 is a transition year.