The big Cincinnati Bearcats football guide: The 2015 AAC's safest bet?

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1. They improved

Over the previous nine years, Cincinnati's No. 47 F/+ ranking in 2014 was its third worst behind 2013 (64th) and 2010 (58th). That Tommy Tuberville has been in charge for two of those three seasons could be a sign of concern, if you're looking for one. The defense has yet to play at a top-50 level under Tuberville, and the running game, long a Tuberville staple, held the Bearcats back last year.

If you ignore context, you wonder about Cincinnati's trajectory moving forward. But you have to ignore a LOT of context, as few teams have been wrecked by injuries in the way Cincinnati was.

Ralph David Abernathy IV, a unique run-and-catch threat, played in two games and touched the ball four times. Hosey Williams, 2013's leading rusher, played in four games. Tion Green, an efficiency back in 2013, played in three. That's 1,488 yards of missing production. Oh, and Cincinnati started nine different offensive linemen.

On defense, the fact that the Bearcats improved at all (from 62nd in Def. S&P+ to 52nd) was impressive considering they had to replace every defensive tackle, lost likely starting cornerback Adrian Witty to injury, and got a combined four games out of what were supposed to be two contributing linebackers. UC was forced to become far more conservative than it wanted.

But after a slow start that featured blowout losses to Ohio State, Memphis, and Miami and a far-too-close win over Miami (Ohio), the Bearcats played like a legitimate top-25 team (we'll ignore the bowl loss to Virginia Tech, since it featured a walk-on quarterback because of injury) and finished 9-4. It was a second straight slow start for Cincy under Tuberville, but this one was far easier to understand.

Cincy enters 2015 with reason for severe optimism. Williams and Green join Mike Boone (who played quite well) in the backfield, and quarterback Gunner Kiel returns each of his top seven weapons from one of the nation's better passing attacks. Cincinnati must replace five offensive linemen (including an all-conference tackle) but returns four (including an all-conference tackle), and while the defensive front seven has some retooling, the secondary is in far healthier shape.

And after finishing 2014 strong, Tuberville inked what was deemed by the 247Sports Composite to be the best class in the AAC. Recruiting and last year's injuries have created what might be the strongest two-deep in the conference, and the schedule features visits from each of Cincy's primary division rivals (Temple and UCF).

If you're looking for reasons to set high expectations at Nippert Stadium, you've got them. Of course, good or bad, it's rarely a smart idea to set expectations for a Tuberville team. Regardless, the Bearcats should be fun as hell on offense, so even if they don't live up to the expectations I am setting for them (despite the fact that I know better), the entertainment factor should be high.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 10-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 47
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
12-Sep	Toledo	59	58-34	W	92%	32.6	99%
20-Sep	Miami (Ohio)	103	31-24	W	59%	5.1	86%
27-Sep	at Ohio State	1	28-50	L	64%	8.2	24%
4-Oct	Memphis	41	14-41	L	24%	-16.6	1%
11-Oct	at Miami	31	34-55	L	7%	-34.4	0%
18-Oct	at SMU	127	41-3	W	83%	22.5	100%
24-Oct	South Florida	123	34-17	W	85%	24.2	100%
31-Oct	at Tulane	93	38-14	W	74%	15.2	97%
13-Nov	East Carolina	61	54-46	W	73%	14.4	66%
22-Nov	at Connecticut	119	41-0	W	96%	42.3	100%
29-Nov	at Temple	67	14-6	W	86%	25.0	96%
6-Dec	Houston	73	38-31	W	71%	12.8	76%
27-Dec	vs. Virginia Tech	33	17-33	L	44%	-3.7	36%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	35.1	31	26.4	52
Points Per Game	34.0	30	27.2	69

2. Two acts

After a brilliant performance against Toledo, Cincinnati hit a tailspin before rallying.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 5 games): 49% (record: 2-3)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 7 games): 81% (record: 7-0)

With the way Cincinnati running backs were exploding like Spinal Tap drummers*, it would be easy to pin a lot of the early troubles on the running game. After all, after rushing for 148 yards in the season opener against Toledo, UC averaged 83 rushing yards per game over the next four games.

But opponents were still struggling to get a grasp of Gunner Kiel and the passing game, and the offense was only so much of a problem. The biggest early issue for the Bearcats during their back-to-back-to-back blowout losses was the other side.

• Yards per play (first 5 games): Opponent 7.05, Cincinnati 6.20 (-0.85)
• Yards per play (next 7 games): Cincinnati 6.33, Opponent 5.23 (+1.10)

Mike Boone rushed 34 times for 325 yards against USF and Tulane in October, and UC found ways to stabilize the run. That allowed the Bearcats to improve offensively even as Kiel began to deal with injuries of his own.

But defensive improvement was the real story. After allowing at least a 151 passer rating in each of the first five games, even against Miami (Ohio), Cincy didn't allow anything higher than 137.4. And after allowing at least 5.9 yards per carry in three of the first five games, the Bearcats did so in just one of the final eight.

So what changed? The level of opponent, certainly. It's easy to look good when you're defending against SMU, USF, Tulane, UConn, and Temple. But Cincinnati's play took a clear step forward even when you adjust for opponent, and it's hard to figure out why. The personnel didn't change much, and while UC coaches began to use words like "simplify," that's what you always hear when a defense is struggling.

But SOMETHING changed, and the defense clicked.

Now, more change is afoot. Defensive co-coordinator Hank Hughes moved on to the same role at Nebraska, and Tuberville promoted Steve Clinkscale as the new co-coordinator with Robert Prunty. And while the secondary appears experienced, UC must replace four of its top six linemen and two fantastic linebackers (Jeff Luc and Nick Temple). If the Bearcats start slowly for the third straight season, defense will again most likely be the reason.

* I'm allowed to use the Spinal Tap drummer reference only once per annual preview series, and I've now played that card. Hold me to that.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.91	36	IsoPPP+	130.0	15
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.0%	34	Succ. Rt. +	110.2	35
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.0	70	Def. FP+	101.0	53
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	5.0	14	Redzone S&P+	109.2	43
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.2		ACTUAL	22	+0.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	29	20	25	15
RUSHING	74	46	37	56
PASSING	13	10	22	8
Standard Downs		25	35	21
Passing Downs		12	15	9

Q1 Rk	27	1st Down Rk	19
Q2 Rk	7	2nd Down Rk	25
Q3 Rk	47	3rd Down Rk	19
Q4 Rk	24

3. An excellent offense despite exploding backs

Even with a new running back seemingly every series, Cincinnati produced a top-50 running game, lacking in big plays to a degree but efficient enough to take heat off of the pass.

And despite all the shuffling, UC had just about every stat that you want to see when you're starting a young quarterback: the Bearcats were explosive on passing downs (what I tend to call the play-maker downs), they improved as a half unfolded, and they adapted when a particular tactic stopped working.

If Kiel gets hurt again, all bets are off. Seniors Jarred Evans and Michael Colosimo combined to complete seven of 18 passes last year, and the next best options are either a redshirt freshman (Hayden Moore) or a true freshman (Ross Trail). But that goes for most teams. If Kiel's healthy, this offense will be phenomenal.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Gunner Kiel	6'4, 208	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9869	233	390	3254	31	13	59.7%	11	2.7%	7.8
Munchie Legaux					53	80	574	3	1	66.3%	4	4.8%	6.5
Jarred Evans	6'2, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8298	2	5	10	0	0	40.0%	2	28.6%	0.4
Michael Colosimo	6'2, 216	Sr.	NR	NR	5	13	78	1	0	38.5%	0	0.0%	6.0
Hayden Moore	6'3, 193	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8229
Ross Trail	6'3, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8697

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Rod Moore	RB					143	618	5	4.3	4.0	35.7%	1	1
Mike Boone	RB	5'10, 205	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893	101	650	9	6.4	6.7	40.6%	1	1
Gunner Kiel	QB	6'4, 208	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9869	52	251	1	4.8	4.3	44.2%	7	3
Tion Green	RB	6'0, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8590	28	118	1	4.2	3.1	28.6%	0	0
Hosey Williams	RB	5'9, 199	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8138	26	140	0	5.4	5.9	34.6%	0	0
Jarred Evans	QB	6'2, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8298	20	117	1	5.9	2.5	60.0%	1	0
Chad Banschbach	RB	5'9, 185	So.	NR	NR	17	81	0	4.8	2.3	41.2%	0	0
Munchie Legaux	QB					16	79	1	4.9	1.7	68.8%	0	0
Bobby Brown	RB	6'0, 200	So.	NR	NR	11	80	0	7.3	6.8	45.5%	0	0
Shaq Washington	WR	5'9, 174	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8609	8	23	0	2.9	2.3	25.0%	1	1
Michael Colosimo	QB	6'2, 216	Sr.	NR	NR	4	54	0	13.5	6.5	100.0%	0	0
Joshuwa Holloman	RB	5'11, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8497
Taylor Boose	RB	6'0, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8404

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Shaq Washington	WR	5'9, 174	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8609	99	66	761	66.7%	20.9%	62.6%	7.7	-31	7.6	119.3
Mekale McKay	WR	6'6, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8522	77	44	725	57.1%	16.2%	67.5%	9.4	181	9.5	113.6
Max Morrison	WR	6'1, 173	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	64	45	458	70.3%	13.5%	59.4%	7.2	-77	7.2	71.8
Chris Moore	WR	6'1, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8441	59	30	673	50.8%	12.4%	59.3%	11.4	292	11.4	105.5
Johnny Holton	WR	6'3, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	50	29	431	58.0%	10.5%	56.0%	8.6	73	8.6	67.5
Alex Chisum	WR	6'3, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8403	40	22	242	55.0%	8.4%	70.0%	6.1	-32	6.1	37.9
Nate Cole	WR	6'1, 193	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8565	19	15	145	78.9%	4.0%	68.4%	7.6	-30	7.2	22.7
Rod Moore	RB					19	9	137	47.4%	4.0%	42.1%	7.2	21	7.1	21.5
Casey Gladney	WR					16	12	198	75.0%	3.4%	31.3%	12.4	57	14.9	31.0
Mike Boone	RB	5'10, 205	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893	9	6	62	66.7%	1.9%	66.7%	6.9	-10	6.7	9.7
DJ Dowdy	TE	6'4, 241	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8484	8	5	36	62.5%	1.7%	62.5%	4.5	-25	4.6	5.6
Hosey Williams	RB	5'9, 199	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8138	4	3	33	75.0%	0.8%	75.0%	8.3	-2	6.3	5.2
Tyler Cogswell	TE	6'4, 248	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8475
Tshumbi Johnson	WR	5'11, 175	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8522
Frank Labady	WR	5'7, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8299
Daniel Cobb	WR	5'10, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8202
Kahlil Lewis	WR	6'0, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8529
Doug Bates	TE	6'4, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8267

4. Loaded

Now that the dust has settled, UC boasts three running backs who have posted an Opportunity Rate (percentage of carries gaining at least five yards) of 39 percent in one of the last two seasons -- Boone (41 percent) in 2014 and Williams (42 percent) and Green (39 percent) in 2013. And if these three either struggle, there could be interesting options like walk-on sophomore Bobby Brown (7.3 yards per carry in limited action) and mid-three-star freshmen Joshuwa Holloman and Taylor Boose.

Cincinnati has rushing options, and goodness knows there are receiving options. Shaq Washington is a steady possession man -- of the 75 FBS players targeted with at least 95 passes in 2014, Washington was one of only 25 with a catch rate of at least 67 percent. He and Max Morrison are the camp-out-in-a-hole-in-the-zone guys, and Mekale McKay, Chris Moore, and Johnny Holton (combined: 17.8 yards per catch) are the field stretchers.

UC is loaded with exciting senior receivers, and if defenses have to keep an eye on the run, Cincinnati is going to do some bad things.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	110.2	3.07	3.12	40.3%	69.0%	14.8%	145.9	3.2%	5.3%
Rank	35	45	82	54	49	15	20	26	32

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Eric Lefeld	LT					45	2014 1st All-AAC
Parker Ehinger	RT	6'7, 315	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8042	38	2014 1st All-AAC
Deyshawn Bond	C	6'2, 298	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8231	23
Justin Murray	LT	6'5, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8331	12
Tyreek Burwell	LG					5
Kevin Schloemer	RG					5
Ryan Leahy	LG	6'6, 295	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8438	3
Dominic Mainello	C					3
Cory Keebler	RT					1
Korey Cunningham	LT	6'5, 254	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8148	0
Chad West	RT	6'6, 292	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8073	0
Ja'Merez Bowen	OL	6'4, 270	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8300
Luke Callahan	OL	6'5, 278	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8238
Ryan Stout	OL	6'5, 265	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8017
Delonte Murray	OL	6'5, 311	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7867
Idarius Ray	OL	6'5, 305	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7783
Evan Mallory	OL	6'5, 302	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8463
Tyler McGarr	OL	6'4, 275	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8054

5. No injuries, please

Offensive coordinator Eddie Gran, about whom I was a bit worried when he was first hired -- identity is an important thing, and his quotes reeked of "we're going to do everything!" -- proved his mettle, and with such depth at running back and receiver, he will have plenty of creative outlets.

But there is another area where injuries could wreck plans: offensive line.

Cincinnati finished with nine players having started at least one game, but five are now gone. All-conference tackle Parker Ehinger is back, as are two other established starters, but any injuries will likely lead to newcomers playing large roles. Maybe that will work -- Cincy boasts three three-star redshirt freshmen, two JUCO transfers, and two three-star true freshmen, and upside doesn't seem to be a problem -- but counting on freshman linemen to keep your offense moving is scary.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.81	37	IsoPPP+	97.2	74
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.6%	89	Succ. Rt. +	91.4	103
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.6	101	Off. FP+	98.0	88
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.0	29	Redzone S&P+	100.4	62
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.8		ACTUAL	24.0	+0.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	98	89	107	74
RUSHING	87	92	102	84
PASSING	100	87	99	71
Standard Downs		75	98	56
Passing Downs		109	108	108

Q1 Rk	96	1st Down Rk	114
Q2 Rk	64	2nd Down Rk	74
Q3 Rk	109	3rd Down Rk	56
Q4 Rk	84

6. Speeding up while tapping the brakes

It's hard to know what to make of a defense that was so bad in the first five games that its overall ratings were pretty terrible despite two months of quality play.

On paper, Cincinnati's defense was a bend-don't-break defense with a strong backbone -- tackles Brad Harrah, Camaron Beard, and Brandon Mitchell, middle linebacker Jeff Luc, safeties Zach Edwards and Andre Jones -- and not quite enough play-making ability on the edges. The Bearcats appeared to ease up and become more of a read-and-react machine over their long hot streak. It also made them really shaky on passing downs.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	89.3	3.19	3.18	43.0%	56.8%	17.7%	109.5	7.6%	5.4%
Rank	107	101	51	110	12	91	42	11	102

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Silverberry Mouhon	DE	6'4, 252	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8026	13	33.0	4.3%	5.0	4.0	0	1	1	0
Terrell Hartsfield	DE					13	30.0	3.9%	12.0	9.0	0	2	1	1
Brad Harrah	DT					13	24.0	3.1%	6.0	3.5	0	2	1	0
Camaron Beard	DT					13	22.5	2.9%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Mitchell	DT	6'2, 290	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8423	13	17.5	2.3%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Jerrell Jordan	DE					12	14.5	1.9%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Alex Pace	DT	6'2, 295	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8478	12	12.0	1.6%	3.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Chris Burton	DT	6'3, 272	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8131	13	6.0	0.8%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Mark Wilson	DE	6'3, 225	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7966	9	2.5	0.3%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Hakeem Allonce	DT	6'5, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8454
Landon Brazile	DE	6'6, 230	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8032
Kimoni Fitz	DE	6'4, 230	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8135
Lyndon Johnson	DE	6'6, 270	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7694
Bryan Wright	DE	6'4, 235	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8228
Marquise Copeland	DE	6'3, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8519
Norman Oglesby	DT	6'0, 265	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8220
Caleb Ashworth	DE	6'3, 235	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8066

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jeff Luc	MLB					13	98.5	12.8%	9.0	6.5	0	4	5	0
Nick Temple	WLB					13	90.0	11.7%	10.5	3.0	0	2	0	1
Kevin Brown	SLB	6'1, 206	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8292	13	21.5	2.8%	2.0	1.0	0	5	0	0
Eric Wilson	WLB	6'2, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8438	13	20.5	2.7%	2.5	0.0	0	0	1	1
Clemente Casseus	LB	6'1, 227	Sr.	NR	NR	4	10.5	1.4%	1.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Kevin Hyland	MLB	6'2, 230	Sr.	NR	NR	13	4.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kevin Mouhon	LB	6'2, 225	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8784
Antonio Kinard	LB	6'3, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8364
Jaylyin Minor	LB	6'1, 240	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7744
Bryce Jenkinson	LB	6'2, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8361
Matthew Draper	LB	6'2, 214	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8488

7. Got a pass rush?

Defensively, we've changed a little bit of things that we do with our front. We've probably worked more on blitz this spring than we did last year, because we're going to be a pretty good man coverage team.

It was more or less a throwaway line within a short "How'd the spring go?" piece, but this quote was a nice reminder of how Tuberville adapts to his personnel.

The 60-year-old has been around -- he took his first defensive coordinator job at Miami 22 years ago, and this will be his 20th season as the head coach of a major-conference program. His defenses are strong as often as not, and while that has a lot to do with recruiting, it also has to do with adaptation.

Confident in their secondary, Tuberville and his co-coordinators will likely go further down the blitzing road, which could lead to more big plays for both the other offense and UC's defense. End Silverberry Mouton is a decent weapon, but unless a young end like Mark Wilson, Landon Brazile or Marquise Copeland surprises, Cincy will probably need blitzes.

There are plenty of athletic linebackers -- undersized senior Kevin Brown, Clemente Casseus, four-star redshirt freshman Kevin Mouhon, JUCO transfer Antonio Kinard -- but we'll see if it's effective. The secondary won't need a ton of help from the pass rush, but it will need a little.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Zach Edwards	S	5'11, 186	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8175	13	94.0	12.3%	3.5	0	2	6	1	0
Leviticus Payne	CB	5'10, 192	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8372	13	48.5	6.3%	6.5	2.0	1	7	1	1
Grant Coleman	CB	6'0, 176	Jr.	NR	NR	13	45.5	5.9%	1	0	0	2	1	0
Howard Wilder	CB					13	39.5	5.1%	2.5	1	2	4	0	0
Andre Jones	S	6'1, 197	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8369	13	36.5	4.8%	3	0	1	6	0	0
Adrian Witty (2013)	CB	5'10, 187	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7778	13	36.5	5.4%	2	0	1	4	0	0
Mike Tyson	S	6'2, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7983	13	27.5	3.6%	0.5	0	0	1	0	0
Linden Stephens	CB	6'0, 185	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.8014	13	14.0	1.8%	0	0	1	4	0	0
Aaron Brown	CB	5'11, 172	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8000	12	9.0	1.2%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Carter Jacobs	S	6'1, 193	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7806	13	7.5	1.0%	0	0	0	1	0	1
Chris Murphy	CB	5'10, 180	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8593
JJ Pinckney	CB	6'3, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8447
Tyrell Gilbert	S	6'1, 200	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7893
Malik Clements	S	6'2, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8395
Jhavonte Dean	CB	6'1, 168	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8184

8. If the front holds up, the back will hold up

Leviticus Payne played both linebacker and cornerback; he is a unique weapon and basically a perfect nickelback candidate. If Adrian Witty returns to form, he and Payne could give safeties Zach Edwards and Andre Jones some lovely security blankets on the edge. And if someone gets hurt, the second string will be made up of players with either experience, upside, or both. The ceiling's awfully high.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Sam Geraci	6'4, 217	So.	51	39.4	5	13	15	54.9%
John Lloyd			11	36.3	0	2	5	63.6%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Tony Miliano			83	62.6	34	1	41.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Andrew Gantz	5'9, 158	So.	52-54	11-12	91.7%	5-8	62.5%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Johnny Holton	KR	6'3, 190	Sr.	35	20.6	0
Casey Gladney	KR			7	20.9	0
Shaq Washington	PR	5'9, 174	Sr.	13	6.1	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	30
Field Goal Efficiency	20
Punt Return Efficiency	11
Kick Return Efficiency	120
Punt Efficiency	51
Kickoff Efficiency	60
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	67

9. Young legs save the day

Special teams added a helping hand for the injured Bearcats. They improved from 123rd to 30th in Special Teams Efficiency, and with freshmen at kicker and punter, no less.

Andrew Gantz was solid inside of 40 yards and strong outside of it, and while Sam Geraci didn't have the longest punts, he had some of the highest. Kick returns were still a weakness, but Cincinnati ranked in the nation's top 60 in each special teams category.

There will be a new kickoffs guy in place, but Gantz and Geraci could be the anchors of a teams unit for the next three years. (Or not. Kickers are flaky.)

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rk
5-Sep	Alabama A&M	NR
12-Sep	Temple	67
19-Sep	at Miami (Ohio)	103
24-Sep	at Memphis	41
1-Oct	Miami	31
17-Oct	at BYU	46
24-Oct	Connecticut	119
31-Oct	Central Florida	60
7-Nov	at Houston	73
14-Nov	Tulsa	117
20-Nov	at South Florida	123
28-Nov	at East Carolina	61

Five-Year F/+ Rk	8.1% (47)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	68 / 57
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	2 / 2.6
2014 TO Luck/Game	-0.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (8, 4)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	8.8 (0.2)

10. If injury karma has been paid ...

... this will probably be the best team in the AAC. Cincy will be the safest bet, anyway. The Bearcats return almost every important piece of last year's massively improved offense and special teams units, plus a few more return from injury.

And if a new defense waits until October to find its footing again, it might not be as damaging. Cincinnati gets Temple and UCF at home, and when the Bearcats go to Memphis on September 24, they'll be taking on another team that is trying to find its defensive footing.

That Cincinnati improved and nearly won 10 games despite every reason not to was encouraging. The injury bug could bite just as hard, but if it doesn't, the Bearcats will have the best offense in the league and a defense that is in the more defense-friendly division. (Sorry, UConn. And USF. And UConn. And Temple.) If the right players are able to remain suited up, Cincinnati could do some awfully fun things.