Notre Dame football has no excuse to finish outside the top 20

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1. So ... now Act II begins?

In last spring's Notre Dame preview, I spoke of 2014 as the beginning of a second act for Brian Kelly. He had to replace both his offensive and defensive coordinators after Chuck Martin and Bob Diaco were hired away by Miami (Ohio) and UConn. Plus, he basically had to replace half of his starting lineup on both sides of the ball.

The blood transfusion was significant, but there was enough returning talent to talk yourself into this team playing at a top-15 or top-20 level. That's exactly what I did.

A couple of months later, Notre Dame's leading receiver (DaVaris Daniels), best cornerback (KeiVarae Russell), and potential starters at defensive end (former five-star recruit Ishaq Williams) and linebacker (senior Kendall Moore) were suspended. The Irish were welcoming back Everett Golson but were lacking their only proven explosive weapon and perhaps their best defensive player. Suddenly, a top-20 level wasn't looking as likely.

Sure enough, the Irish finished 34th in the F/+ rankings, starting hot but fading as Golson made more mistakes and the defense regressed. Notre Dame allowed at least 5.6 yards per play in each of their last eight games, against offenses good and bad, and Golson was asked to do more than he was capable of doing. Eventually, his confidence eroded amid a wash of awful luck and ridiculous mistakes, and he went from potential Heisman contender to second-stringer.

And the result was a second straight overall stumble -- from 12-1 and sixth in F/+ in 2012, to 9-4 and 29th in 2013, to 8-5 and 34th.

The turnover was drastic, and the two-deep was young. Despite Golson's transfer, last year's roster returns mostly intact. Plus, Kelly added one of the game's most well-regarded young assistants in new offensive coordinator Mike Sanford. I can come up with legitimate reasons why the 2014 Irish couldn't keep it together, but if they don't improve in 2015, it might be difficult explaining why.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 10-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 34
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	Rice	86	48-17	W	98%	49.6	100%
6-Sep	Michigan	54	31-0	W	98%	47.6	100%
13-Sep	vs. Purdue	84	30-14	W	64%	8.2	77%
27-Sep	vs. Syracuse	80	31-15	W	86%	25.2	99%
4-Oct	Stanford	18	17-14	W	88%	27.1	76%
11-Oct	North Carolina	70	50-43	W	71%	13.0	84%
18-Oct	at Florida State	15	27-31	L	50%	-0.3	16%
1-Nov	vs. Navy	44	49-39	W	94%	35.9	99%
8-Nov	at Arizona State	27	31-55	L	33%	-10.3	2%
15-Nov	Northwestern	71	40-43	L	70%	12.4	78%
22-Nov	Louisville	23	28-31	L	77%	17.0	57%
29-Nov	at USC	16	14-49	L	5%	-37.4	0%
30-Dec	vs. LSU	22	31-28	W	75%	15.8	62%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	36.9	20	24.9	43
Points Per Game	32.8	40	29.2	84

2. Springing leaks

Despite a sketchy performance against Purdue, Notre Dame looked the part of a top-20 team over the first five games. The Irish walloped Michigan and beat a Stanford team that was both strong and snake-bitten. The offense obliterated bad defenses (39.5 points per game, 7.6 yards per play against Rice and Syracuse) and took advantage of opportunities against good ones, and while the defense was glitchy against Syracuse, it completely shut down Michigan and Stanford (7 points per game, 3.7 yards per play).

For a young team asking a lot of new contributors, this was a perfect start. But then cracks began to form. North Carolina scored 43 points and averaged 6.1 yards per play. Navy scored 39 and averaged 5.9. Golson made a series of crippling mistakes in a blowout loss to Arizona State, and the defense couldn't get off the field in an upset loss to Northwestern.

This young team couldn't maintain its level.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 5 games): 87% (record: 5-0)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 8 games): 59% (record: 3-5)

With 128 teams in FBS, a top-30 level of play means playing around the 77th percentile. Notre Dame pulled this off in four of its first five games but only three of its last eight. The Irish had a positive turnover margin in each of their first three games but one of their final 10. They survived a minus-4 margin against Syracuse because Syracuse was terrible, but a minus-4 margin against ASU did the Irish in.

Turnovers killed the offense, which otherwise improved as the season progressed; simple regression did the defense in.

• Yards Per Play (first 5 games): Notre Dame 5.9, Opponent 4.7 (plus-1.2)
• Yards Per Play (last 8 games): Notre Dame 6.2, Opponent 6.1 (plus-0.1)

The defensive front was done in by injuries, and the back seven couldn't find the right mix of personnel. And when better offenses began showing up, the Irish and new coordinator Brian VanGorder had few answers.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.89	42	IsoPPP+	130.6	14
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.4%	30	Succ. Rt. +	114.7	23
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.5	40	Def. FP+	105.0	20
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.4	68	Redzone S&P+	112.6	35
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.8		ACTUAL	26	+4.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	34	14	17	14
RUSHING	70	27	29	28
PASSING	19	13	11	14
Standard Downs		18	22	14
Passing Downs		15	10	20

Q1 Rk	18	1st Down Rk	18
Q2 Rk	6	2nd Down Rk	6
Q3 Rk	22	3rd Down Rk	37
Q4 Rk	30

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Everett Golson					256	427	3445	29	14	60.0%	27	5.9%	7.2
Malik Zaire	6'0, 222	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9268	21	35	266	1	0	60.0%	1	2.8%	7.1
DeShone Kizer	6'5, 230	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9073
Brandon Wimbush	6'2, 212	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9784

3. Ballad of Everett Golson

It was tough watching Everett Golson's disintegration from a quarterback in complete control of a young offense to a risk-taker who couldn't hold onto the ball. But as opponents began to score more, Golson tried to raise his game. And it appears he tried too hard.

• First 4 games: 70% completion rate, 12.1 yards per completion, 1.5% interception rate
• Next 4 games: 57% completion rate, 13.0 yards per completion, 3.1% interception rate
• Last 4 games: 54% completion rate, 15.8 yards per completion, 5.7% interception rate

Now, bad luck was part of Golson's eventual struggles. As noted by CSN Chicago's JJ Stankevitz, Golson lost eight of 12 fumbles and saw a higher-than-normal percentage of passes defensed end up as interceptions. But fumbling 12 times is pretty awful -- only two other players fumbled at least 12 times: Washington's Cyler Miles (13 fumbles, six lost) and Navy's option master Keenan Reynolds (12 fumbles, nine lost) -- and the fact that opponents defensed almost 12 percent of Notre Dame's passes suggests a level of unnecessary risk.

The offense got more explosive as the season went on, but there was a price to pay, and a bit more balance could have solved problems.

But that's in the past. Golson is on his way to another locale as a graduate transfer, and barring a big surprise from redshirt freshman DeShone Kizer or true freshman Brandon Wimbush in fall camp, Malik Zaire will be Notre Dame's starting quarterback. Zaire is an efficient runner whose explosiveness numbers were boosted by his first college rush (a 56-yarder against Rice), and he demonstrated patience and efficiency in completing 12 of 15 passes (albeit for only 96 yards) in the bowl win over LSU.

Of course, Zaire was also more big play-oriented both in spring ball and in his first major action last year (9-for-20 for 170 yards against USC). And we'll see what kind of balance he brings. As steady as he looked in the bowl game, the first game of 2015 will only be his third as a major contributor. He has a lot to learn, just as we have a lot to learn about him.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Tarean Folston	RB	5'10, 214	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9497	175	889	6	5.1	3.5	42.9%	1	0
Everett Golson	QB					87	456	8	5.2	5.3	47.1%	12	8
Cam McDaniel	RB					77	278	4	3.6	3.1	27.3%	1	1
Greg Bryant	RB	5'10, 205	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9764	54	289	3	5.4	3.3	51.9%	1	1
Malik Zaire	QB	6'0, 222	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9268	32	198	2	6.2	6.8	46.9%	0	0
C.J. Prosise	WR	6'1, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8887	10	126	1	12.6	18.6	50.0%	0	0
Amir Carlisle	WR	5'10, 192	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9589	7	46	0	6.6	3.1	71.4%	1	0
Dexter Williams	RB	6'0, 200	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9551
Josh Adams	RB	6'2, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8973

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
William Fuller	WR	6'0, 180	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9005	115	76	1094	66.1%	26.6%	53.0%	9.5	180	9.6	170.3
Corey Robinson	WR	6'5, 215	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8822	66	41	550	62.1%	15.2%	60.6%	8.3	51	8.4	85.6
Chris Brown	WR	6'2, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8787	66	39	548	59.1%	15.2%	71.2%	8.3	69	8.1	85.3
C.J. Prosise	WR	6'1, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8887	50	29	516	58.0%	11.5%	52.0%	10.3	158	10.1	80.4
Ben Koyack	TE					46	30	317	65.2%	10.6%	76.1%	6.9	-45	6.9	49.4
Amir Carlisle	WR	5'10, 192	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9589	37	23	309	62.2%	8.5%	64.9%	8.4	29	8.5	48.1
Tarean Folston	RB	5'10, 214	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9497	25	18	190	72.0%	5.8%	60.0%	7.6	-23	7.7	29.6
Cam McDaniel	RB					11	9	76	81.8%	2.5%	63.6%	6.9	-28	6.4	11.8
Torii Hunter Jr.	WR	6'0, 190	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9156	9	7	65	77.8%	2.1%	66.7%	7.2	-17	7.3	10.1
Chase Hounshell	TE	6'5, 255	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8634
Justin Brent	WR	6'2, 205	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9537
Corey Holmes	WR	6'1, 184	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9233
Mike Heuerman	TE	6'4, 225	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9041
Durham Smythe	TE	6'5, 245	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9057
Tyler Luatua	TE	6'3, 250	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8946
Nic Weishar	TE	6'4, 241	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9037
Alizé Jones	TE	6'5, 220	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9685
Equanimeous St. Brown	WR	6'5, 205	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9287
Miles Boykin	WR	6'3, 225	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9177
C.J. Sanders	WR	5'10, 185	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8997

4. Options galore

If Zaire and the offensive line are stable, Notre Dame has a variety of exciting options at the skill positions.

William Fuller's emergence as a big-play dynamo actually might have damaged Golson's efficiency. He had some big games early (six catches for 119 yards against Syracuse, seven for 133 against UNC), but while he averaged 5.8 catches per game and 13 yards per catch through eight games, those numbers rose to 6.3 and 17.5, respectively, over the final four of the regular season. Golson began looking for more downfield connections and lost his best possession receiver.

Obviously Fuller was by far a net positive, but it will be interesting to see how he is used in 2015. He was a strong threat both close to and far from the line of scrimmage, and Sanford's 2014 Boise State offense featured a high-efficiency passing attack, with quarterback Grant Hedrick completing 71 percent at 12.6 yards per completion.

Fuller will have help. Each of the top five returning wideouts (including C.J. Prosise and Amir Carlisle, who could see time either in the backfield or out wide) averaged at least 8.3 yards per target. Prosise is an exciting weapon, and while lacking in big-play ability, running backs Tarean Folston and Greg Bryant provided nice efficiency options. [Update: Bryant will be suspended for the first four games of the season.] And if another weapon is needed, there is a metric ton of four-star freshmen and sophomores at the ready. Sophomore Justin Brent seemed to have a solid spring, and blue-chip freshman tight end Alizé Jones could be a factor.

If his brief résumé is any indication, Sanford should find the buttons to press, but it will still hinge on quality quarterbacking. And a nice line wouldn't hurt.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	110.4	2.92	3.53	43.4%	69.4%	17.5%	130.7	1.5%	9.2%
Rank	32	69	42	24	44	42	30	5	94

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Christian Lombard	RT					32
Ronnie Stanley	LT	6'6, 315	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9431	26
Nick Martin	C	6'5, 301	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8610	24
Steve Elmer	RG	6'6, 315	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9467	17
Matt Hegarty	C					13
Conor Hanratty	LG					7
Mark Harrell	RT	6'4, 308	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8762	0
John Montelus	RG	6'4, 310	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9330	0
Hunter Bivin	LT	6'6, 302	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9531	0
Mike McGlinchey	RT	6'8, 310	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9280	0
Colin McGovern	LG	6'5, 315	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9188	0
Quenton Nelson	LG	6'5, 325	RSFr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9678
Alex Bars	LG	6'6, 316	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9471
Jimmy Byrne	RG	6'4, 295	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8927
Sam Mustipher	OL	6'2, 305	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9123
Tristen Hoge	OL	6'5, 281	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9563

5. Living up to your recruiting ranking

The Notre Dame offensive line wasn't bad, but it wasn't quite good enough. The line stats lagged behind the overall stats, and while Golson's mistakes and the running backs' iffy explosiveness didn't help, eyeballs did agree with the stats.

The Irish finished the year with six players having amassed at least seven career starts, and while three are gone, Ronnie Stanley, Nick Martin, and Steve Elmer all return. They've compiled 67 career starts between them, and experienced reserve Mark Harrell could figure into the lineup as well.

There will be an interesting relationship between the decent upperclassmen and what appears to be a large batch of high-ceiling youngsters. Of the nine freshmen and sophomores listed above, eight were deemed four-star prospects in high school, and four (sophomore Hunter Bivin, redshirt freshmen Quenton Nelson and Alex Bars, and freshman Tristen Hoge) were high-four or five-stars. Of course, the incumbents weren't exactly two-stars.

I don't see the line performing worse, but if a new, high-upside piece can live up to his hype, the line could be even better. With such an inexperienced quarterback, that would be a very positive development.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.83	51	IsoPPP+	96.1	80
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.7%	93	Succ. Rt. +	99.7	64
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.4	24	Off. FP+	105.0	20
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.2	52	Redzone S&P+	101.3	58
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.2		ACTUAL	23.0	+4.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	73	78	70	80
RUSHING	74	70	64	74
PASSING	77	96	90	88
Standard Downs		77	80	76
Passing Downs		88	63	91

Q1 Rk	109	1st Down Rk	79
Q2 Rk	27	2nd Down Rk	58
Q3 Rk	74	3rd Down Rk	85
Q4 Rk	65

6. Youth? Check. Injuries? Check. Dreadful starts? Check.

The deck was stacked against VanGorder. The first-year coordinator had to deal with an ultra young two-deep, one that was even younger than expected thanks to the suspensions of Russell, Williams, and Moore.

Plus, he couldn't keep the same front four on the field. Of the eight linemen with at least five tackles, only two played in all 13 games. Plus, linebacker Joe Schmidt missed the final five games. And be it because of uncertain personnel or iffy game plans, the Irish tended to start games terribly before rebounding.

The Irish had some strengths -- they had an invasive presence against the run and made plays on the ball -- but they couldn't consistently overcome their weaknesses. If they didn't make a run stop in the backfield, the runner was getting upfield, and if they didn't break up a pass, it was probably being completed for a decent gain.

Of course, just about everybody's back. That's not necessarily a good thing when your defense was disappointing, but it gives VanGorder options. He now boasts four linemen who recorded at least 5.5 tackles for loss, five linebackers who had at least two, play-making cornerback Cole Luke (four interceptions, 11 break-ups), and four safeties who combined for 10 tackles for loss, seven picks and seven break-ups. And as always with Notre Dame, there is a new batch of high-ceiling youngsters, and the batch is large enough to produce early play-makers.

VanGorder was an interesting hire. He has quite a bit of success and failure on his résumé, and he's not afraid to make unpopular changes (see: bringing a pass-happy attack to Georgia Southern in his one year as head coach). His 2014 defense had a lot going against it. Barring a large swath of injuries, 2015 won't have as many excuses.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	99.2	2.99	3.51	41.3%	65.9%	21.2%	93.9	6.3%	6.1%
Rank	65	71	81	93	56	40	78	33	86

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Sheldon Day	DT	6'2, 285	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9485	11	32.0	4.5%	7.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Jarron Jones	DT	6'6, 315	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9364	11	31.5	4.4%	7.5	1.5	0	1	1	0
Isaac Rochell	DE	6'4, 287	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9459	13	29.0	4.1%	7.5	2.5	0	3	0	0
Romeo Okwara	DE	6'4, 260	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8782	13	27.0	3.8%	4.0	3.0	0	1	1	0
Andrew Trumbetti	DE	6'4, 255	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9347	12	18.0	2.5%	5.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Justin Utupo	DT					13	15.5	2.2%	2.0	1.0	1	2	0	0
Grant Blankenship	DE	6'5, 252	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8982	11	10.0	1.4%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Jacob Matuska	DT	6'5, 295	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8801	7	5.5	0.8%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Daniel Cage	DT	6'1, 315	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8924	11	2.5	0.3%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Chase Hounshell	TE					3	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jay Hayes	DT	6'3, 285	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9060	3	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Doug Randolph	DE	6'2, 240	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9058
Jonathan Bonner	DL	6'3, 275	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8600
Jhonny Williams	DE	6'4, 260	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8401
Jerry Tillery	DT	6'7, 300	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9293
Micah Dew-Treadway	DT	6'4, 295	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8656
Elijah Taylor	DT	6'3, 285	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8945

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jaylon Smith	LB	6'3, 235	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9986	13	87.5	12.2%	9.0	3.5	0	2	1	0
Joe Schmidt	LB	6'1, 235	Sr.	NR	NR	8	53.5	7.5%	0.5	0.0	2	1	2	0
Nyles Morgan	LB	6'1, 237	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9727	12	35.0	4.9%	3.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Greer Martini	LB	6'3, 240	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8833	13	21.5	3.0%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
James Onwualu	LB	6'1, 220	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8950	13	18.5	2.6%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kolin Hill	LB	6'2, 230	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8575	9	5.0	0.7%	2.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Jarrett Grace	LB	6'3, 253	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8715
Michael Deeb	LB	6'2, 255	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8737
Te'Von Coney	LB	6'0, 230	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.8960
Josh Barajas	LB	6'3, 212	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9381
Asmar Bilal	LB	6'3, 210	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9200

7. No more excuses for the front seven

The defensive line boasts three seniors, three players who logged at least 7.5 tackles for loss in 2014, six former four-star recruits, four reasonably experienced ends, and two strong senior tackles. The linebacking corps returns tackling machine Schmidt (who missed five games and still finished tied for third on the team in tackles), run-stopping missile Jaylon Smith, four youngsters who got their feet wet in 2014, and six former four- or five-star recruits. [Update: Jarron Jones will miss the season with a torn MCL.]

The front seven has quite a bit going for it, in other words. It was also the engine behind a terribly disappointing No. 70 ranking in Rushing S&P+. Opponents knew they could run on Notre Dame when they needed to, and they didn't need LSU's Leonard Fournette to do it (though he had plenty of fun). And while shuffling was part of the reason, one would have hoped the floor was a lot higher than 70th.

The pressure is on VanGorder and experienced players like Sheldon Day and Romeo Okwara. Neither the run defense nor the pass rush was good enough, and while scheme, game plans, injuries, and inexperience played a role, the latter two probably won't be issues this year. Time to make plays ... or at least allow fewer of them.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Max Redfield	S	6'1, 198	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9852	13	54.0	7.6%	0.5	0	1	2	0	0
Elijah Shumate	S	6'0, 213	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9567	13	53.5	7.5%	2.5	1	1	4	0	1
Matthias Farley	S	5'11, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8414	13	46.5	6.5%	6.5	3.5	4	1	0	0
KeiVarae Russell (2013)	CB	5'11, 190	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9373	13	45.5	6.3%	1.5	0	1	8	0	0
Cole Luke	CB	5'11, 190	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9325	13	40.5	5.7%	2	1	4	11	2	0
Cody Riggs	CB					11	30.5	4.3%	1	0	1	3	1	0
Drue Tranquill	S	6'2, 225	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8961	11	24.5	3.4%	1	0.5	1	0	0	1
Devin Butler	CB	6'1, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8902	13	22.0	3.1%	0	0	1	4	1	0
Austin Collinsworth	S					5	10.5	1.5%	1.5	0	0	0	0	1
Eilar Hardy	S					5	7.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
John Turner	S	6'1, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8629	13	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nick Watkins	CB	6'0, 200	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9237
Connor Cavalaris	CB	5'11, 195	Sr.	NR	NR
Nicky Baratti	S	6'1, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8740
Shaun Crawford	DB	5'9, 170	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9456

8. Inexcusably bad

When you look at the individual stats of the players listed above -- Cole Luke with his 15 passes defensed, Matthias Farley with his 6.5 tackles for loss, etc. -- you get the impression of an aggressive Notre Dame secondary. It had potential, but it ranked an inexcusable 96th in Passing S&P+, 88th on passing downs. The complete lack of an effective blitz played a role, but ... 96th!

For perspective, here are the defenses that ranked 91st through 95th: Kentucky, UL-Lafayette, UConn, Kent State, Ohio. Notre Dame, with its four- and five-stars and play-makers, ranked below them. The Irish allowed a 60.3 percent completion rate (86th in the country) and allowed 43 completions of at least 20 yards (85th). Awful.

Now, it bears mentioning that there was quite a bit of turnover. Russell was lost pretty close to the season, and safeties Austin Collinsworth and Eliar Hardy missed eight games each. With a nonexistent pass rush and understudies playing a larger role than expected, Notre Dame wasn't going to post a top-20 or top-30 pass defense. But top-60 shouldn't have been too much to ask.

With what should be an improved run defense, the pass defense should face plenty of favorable down-and-distance situations. Perhaps the experience here becomes a rising tide, and as with the defensive line, perhaps maintaining most of your starting lineup from the start of the season to the end will be worth a few spots in the rankings. But this unit has even more to prove than the front seven. List the individual components, from Sheldon Day to to Jaylon Smith to Cole Luke, and you've got a potentially stout defense. But the whole was far less than the sum of the parts.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Kyle Brindza			51	41.5	7	21	17	74.5%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Kyle Brindza			81	63.3	52	3	64.2%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Kyle Brindza			51-52	9-13	69.2%	5-11	45.5%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Amir Carlisle	KR	5'10, 192	Sr.	35	21.7	0
Greg Bryant	KR	5'10, 205	Jr.	4	21.3	0
Cody Riggs	PR			13	7.3	0
Greg Bryant	PR	5'10, 205	Jr.	8	11.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	58
Field Goal Efficiency	112
Punt Return Efficiency	27
Kick Return Efficiency	25
Punt Efficiency	56
Kickoff Efficiency	81
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	26

9. Coverage units: yuck

When your secondary isn't very good, there's a good possibility that your coverage units aren't either, since backup DBs, linebackers, and receivers tend to make up those units. Well, despite the presence of Kyle Brindza, a fair catch machine on punts and a touchbacks machine on kickoffs, Notre Dame ranked 56th in punt efficiency and 81st in kickoff efficiency (114th in kick return average allowed) last year.

And now Brindza's gone. That leaves defensive backs with even more to prove. But at least returns probably won't be a problem.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rk
5-Sep	Texas	53
12-Sep	at Virginia	39
19-Sep	Georgia Tech	8
26-Sep	Massachusetts	120
3-Oct	at Clemson	14
10-Oct	Navy	44
17-Oct	USC	16
31-Oct	at Temple	67
7-Nov	at Pittsburgh	43
14-Nov	Wake Forest	101
21-Nov	at Boston College	36
28-Nov	at Stanford	18

Five-Year F/+ Rk	33.5% (14)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	11 / 10
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-3 / -3.5
2014 TO Luck/Game	+0.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	17 (7, 10)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	8.5 (-0.5)

10. This should be a top-20 team

Take the name off of the jerseys: a team that ranked 34th in F/+ the previous season, returns 17 starters, and boasts strong two-year recruiting rankings will be projected to improve. And with fewer offensive disasters and defensive injuries, it could improve quite a bit.

A team with Will Fuller, Corey Robinson, C.J. Prosise, Tarean Folston, Ronnie Stanley, and Nick Martin on offense and Sheldon Day, Jaylon Smith, Jarron Jones, Joe Schmidt, Cole Luke, Isaac Rochell, and Matthias Farley on defense should be able to play at a top-20 level. All Malik Zaire has to do is limit the crippling mistakes, and the offense will be incredibly difficult to stop. All the defensive starting 11 has to do is remain on the field into November, and the defense should be competent.

That doesn't seem to be too much to ask.

Still, the land mines are plentiful for a team that has so much to prove. Georgia Tech and USC visit South Bend, while Clemson, Stanford, Boston College, and Pitt all welcome the Irish to town. A top-20 team should expect to go about 9-3 against this schedule, but there will be enough close games to put 11-1 and 7-5 on the table (the latter more than the former).

After everything broke right for Notre Dame two years ago, the Irish struggled through two seasons of suspensions, injuries, and iffy breaks. Either the Irish rebound this fall (and I think the odds are in their favor), or we have to start wondering if a rebound is in the cards.