2015 is a make-or-break year for Indiana Hoosiers football

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1. Bailing sand

Hard jobs remain hard. When Kevin Wilson came to Bloomington in 2011, he had to know exactly what he was getting into. Indiana had been to one bowl in 17 seasons and had finished ranked in the AP twice, never higher than 19th, since 1967.

Wilson was brought in to press the reset button, install a high-powered offense, and figure out how to raise the ceiling. His Hoosiers bottomed out in Year 1, finishing 1-11 and ranking a symmetrical 111th in F/+, but quickly started to get somewhere: 4-8 and 78th in 2012, 5-7 and 48th in 2013. The defense was still an albatross, but the offense had gone from bad to great in two years.

With experience and a new defensive coordinator, Indiana looked (to me, anyway) like a team ready to go bowling in 2014.

The series of tough road games precludes a great record, but Indiana appears set to improve, both in overall quality and in record, for the third straight year. Even if the offense regresses, the defense should improve more, simply from a "can't get worse" perspective.

Wilson's building something pretty impressive. Last year wasn't quite the breakthrough, but the Hoosiers are moving forward and should again in 2014.

Despite one of the most statistically unlikely losses of the season, a 45-42 stumble to Bowling Green, the Hoosiers started 2-1 thanks to a road upset of a Missouri team getting ready to win the SEC East for the second time. But then the Hoosiers laid a massive egg at home against Maryland. And then their quarterback got hurt. And then they bottomed out.

Building a winner from scratch takes about 148 steps, good timing, and good fortune. Wilson got the offense to where he wanted it in 2013, and just as his defense began to improve, his offense got beat up. A team with IU's 2013 offense and 2014 defense would have ranked 30th in S&P+ last year; instead, the Hoosiers ranked 86th and finished 4-8.

The 2015 season was supposed to be when Indiana figures out how to deal with success following a bowl breakthrough. Instead, Wilson and his Hoosiers are trying to figure out whether a breakthrough is still possible. Turnovers killed them in 2013, and an ill-timed quarterback injury did them in in 2014, but at some point you become your record. And no matter what potential Indiana has flashed, this team has won either four or five games for five of the last six years.

Building a winning program is like bailing sand with your arms. For every five pounds you get loaded, you lose four in transit. We'll find out if Kevin Wilson can find a shovel.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 7-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 88
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	Indiana State	NR	28-10	W	67%	10.3	100%
13-Sep	at Bowling Green	98	42-45	L	77%	17.2	96%
20-Sep	at Missouri	20	31-27	W	63%	7.8	61%
27-Sep	Maryland	62	15-37	L	7%	-34.1	0%
4-Oct	North Texas	125	49-24	W	92%	32.8	100%
11-Oct	at Iowa	63	29-45	L	38%	-7.4	25%
18-Oct	Michigan State	11	17-56	L	70%	12.3	42%
1-Nov	at Michigan	54	10-34	L	6%	-36.9	0%
8-Nov	Penn State	45	7-13	L	10%	-29.9	0%
15-Nov	at Rutgers	81	23-45	L	6%	-37.1	0%
22-Nov	at Ohio State	1	27-42	L	53%	1.9	11%
29-Nov	Purdue	84	23-16	W	51%	0.6	74%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	27.7	75	31.6	91
Points Per Game	25.1	90	32.8	102

2. ...and then it all collapsed

With about 13 minutes left in the first half of the sixth game, Indiana's 2014 campaign was already disappointing. The sweet taste of the Missouri upset was made bitter by both an unlikely loss at Bowling Green (IU averaged 7.5 yards per play to BGSU's 5.1 and won the turnover battle but blew five scoring opportunities with three turnovers on downs, a lost fumble, and a missed field goal) and a dreadful post-Mizzou performance against Maryland. The Hoosiers were 3-2, but it should have been 4-1, and the Maryland game proved the floor was still awfully low.

Thanks to a pick six, Indiana allowed three touchdowns in three minutes in falling behind Iowa, 21-0, in Iowa City. But the Hoosiers were down just 28-14 and driving when quarterback Nate Sudfeld injured his shoulder. Freshman Chris Covington came in and went 3-for-12 with two picks, and despite an absurd performance from Tevin Coleman (15 carries, 219 yards, three scores), they came up short, 45-29.

The next week, an inspired team fought well against Michigan State with a different freshman quarterback (Zander Diamont, who went 5-for-15 with 11 yards and four sacks). Coleman rushed for 132 yards, and the defense held MSU in check before tipping over in the fourth quarter.

Without Sudfeld, there was no ready-made successor, and everybody knew it. After a solid first half against Michigan State, the team began to look hopeless.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 7 games): 59% (record: 3-4)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 3 games): 7% (record: 0-3)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 2 games): 52% (record: 1-1)

If there was a silver lining, it's that the Hoosiers rebounded. After playing three of the worst games imaginable -- yards per play against Michigan, Penn State, and Rutgers (all teams outside of the F/+ top 40): Opponent 5.9, Indiana 4.3 -- the Hoosiers got their legs back. Coleman rushed for 228 against Ohio State, and Indiana led the eventual national champion by six late in the third before Buckeye Jalin Marshall (four touchdowns in 15 minutes) went crazy. In the season finale, IU scored 23 second-half points to take down rival Purdue.

If 2015 ends up a happier tale, we'll look back to the final two games of last year as the start of the rebound. But Coleman is now an Atlanta Falcon, which means IU gets Sudfeld back just in time to lose its security blanket.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.84	69	IsoPPP+	97.9	75
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.4%	92	Succ. Rt. +	100.8	67
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.9	86	Def. FP+	100.0	65
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.4	72	Redzone S&P+	88.0	105
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.3		ACTUAL	19	-1.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	64	71	74	75
RUSHING	10	35	54	24
PASSING	122	116	104	121
Standard Downs		62	57	62
Passing Downs		109	111	97

Q1 Rk	47	1st Down Rk	37
Q2 Rk	106	2nd Down Rk	31
Q3 Rk	81	3rd Down Rk	84
Q4 Rk	12

3. Life in a post-Tevin universe

When Sudfeld went down, Indiana's offense bottomed out, and it did so despite the presence of one of the most incredible college running backs of the early 21st century. Coleman turned a crease into an interstate with regularity in his three seasons; most of Indiana's exciting moments involved Coleman, who was more impressive in the open field than even Melvin Gordon.

Coleman was a security blanket, able to craft yards out of what was otherwise decent execution, and his absence will force everybody else to pick up the slack.

On paper, the IU offense still has quite a bit going for it. The Hoosiers get Sudfeld back. Sudfeld was strong in four of his six appearances last year -- against BGSU, Missouri, North Texas, and Iowa, he completed 68 percent, gaining 12 yards per completion, with six touchdowns and one pick. He was less impressive against Indiana State and Maryland, but he's showed his ceiling is pretty high.

Sudfeld has athletes around him. UAB transfer Jordan Howard rushed for nearly 1,600 yards last year; his explosiveness is mortal compared to Coleman's, but it's strong for his size (6'1, 225). But he has to beat out Devine Redding; Redding was semi-efficient, and to the eyes, he appears to have more explosiveness than he got a chance to prove.

And between sophomores Dominique Booth and Marqui Hawkins and a few incoming freshman, IU boasts quite a few former four- or high-three-star recruits in the receiving corps. The youth is scary, but in theory, there is enough athleticism for Wilson to figure out how to move the ball if Sudfeld remains healthy.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Nate Sudfeld	6'5, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8759	101	167	1151	6	3	60.5%	8	4.6%	6.3
Zander Diamont	6'1, 173	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7917	64	132	515	1	4	48.5%	16	10.8%	2.7
Chris Covington					3	12	31	0	2	25.0%	1	7.7%	1.8
Nate Boudreau	6'4, 223	Jr.	NR	NR
Danny Cameron	6'1, 204	RSFr.	NR	0.8400
Austin King	6'2, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8535

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Tevin Coleman	RB					270	2036	15	7.5	9.8	41.5%	4	3
Jordan Howard (UAB)	RB	6'1, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7956	306	1587	13	5.2	5.0	38.2%	2	2
D'Angelo Roberts	RB					107	493	6	4.6	4.7	33.6%	0	0
Zander Diamont	QB	6'1, 173	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7917	39	248	2	6.4	9.2	41.0%	4	1
Devine Redding	RB	5'10, 195	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8478	29	118	1	4.1	3.2	37.9%	1	0
Nate Sudfeld	QB	6'5, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8759	28	147	2	5.3	2.7	53.6%	0	0
Chris Covington	QB					16	98	0	6.1	4.4	56.3%	3	0
Myles Graham	RB					14	81	1	5.8	3.1	57.1%	1	1
Shane Wynn	WR					4	138	2	34.5	27.6	100.0%	1	1
J-Shun Harris II	WR	5'8, 170	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7733	4	3	0	0.8	1.6	25.0%	2	1
Tommy Mister	RB	6'0, 208	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8569
Devonte Williams	RB	5'10, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8488

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Shane Wynn	WR				NR	85	56	708	65.9%	28.5%	56.5%	8.3	34	8.4	79.1
Nick Stoner	WR				NR	44	22	217	50.0%	14.8%	65.9%	4.9	-63	4.6	24.2
Tevin Coleman	RB				NR	33	25	141	75.8%	11.1%	45.5%	4.3	-153	4.2	15.7
J-Shun Harris II	WR	5'8, 170	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7733	30	18	168	60.0%	10.1%	70.0%	5.6	-53	5.1	18.8
Simmie Cobbs, Jr.	WR	6'4, 215	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8256	19	7	114	36.8%	6.4%	42.1%	6.0	17	5.8	12.7
Dominique Booth	WR	6'1, 208	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9050	19	8	70	42.1%	6.4%	47.4%	3.7	-36	3.9	7.8
D'Angelo Roberts	RB				NR	10	9	59	90.0%	3.4%	40.0%	5.9	-44	6.5	6.6
Isaiah Roundtree	WR				NR	9	8	32	88.9%	3.0%	88.9%	3.6	-60	3.0	3.6
Michael Cooper	TE	6'5, 257	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8488	9	2	25	22.2%	3.0%	55.6%	2.8	-8	2.9	2.8
Ricky Jones	WR	5'10, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7800	8	3	58	37.5%	2.7%	25.0%	7.3	17	8.4	6.5
Anthony Corsaro	TE	6'3, 250	Sr.	NR	NR	8	5	39	62.5%	2.7%	25.0%	4.9	-22	6.4	4.4
Jordan Fuchs	TE	6'6, 233	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8248	8	3	31	37.5%	2.7%	62.5%	3.9	-10	4.1	3.5
Danny Friend	TE	6'5, 261	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8425
Isaac Griffith	WR	6'0, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8222
Marqui Hawkins (UAB)	WR	6'2, 217	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8707
Camion Patrick	WR	6'2, 210	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8644
Leon Thornton III	WR	6'1, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8622
Isaac James	WR	5'11, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8563
Mike Majette	WR	5'10, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8517
Nick Westbrook	WR	6'3, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8347

4. The youth are taking over, ready or not

Indiana had to replace four of its top five receivers in 2014; they combined for 169 catches in 2013, and heading into last season, only Shane Wynn and Tevin Coleman had more than 14. Now Wynn, Coleman, and Nick Stoner (combined: 103 catches) are gone, too.

You can usually see the double-dips coming, and you have time to prepare. Three freshmen got their feet wet last year: J-Shun Harris II, Simmie Cobbs Jr., and Dominique Booth were targeted a combined 68 times, and while they didn't do much (33 catches, 352 yards), they got reps. [Update: Harris is out for the season with a knee injury.] Wilson supplemented them with another UAB transfer (Marqui Hawkins, who committed to Florida out of high school), a few three-star sophomores, and four three-star February signees.

Wilson has one of the most proven offensive minds in college football. He's crafted strong offenses out of less than this, and with Sudfeld running the show, I expect the Hoosiers to move the ball. But 2014 showed that even a great coach will struggle if he doesn't have the right personnel.

The Indiana skill position corps should be awesome in 2016-17. But Sudfeld will have to be spectacular if the Hoosiers are going to get back into the Off. S&P+ top 40 this year. Top 60 is a more realistic goal.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	112.2	3.18	3.05	41.4%	65.9%	20.7%	91.5	3.0%	12.1%
Rank	27	32	89	38	78	84	82	25	120

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Collin Rahrig	LG					35
Jason Spriggs	LT	6'7, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8407	34
Bernard Taylor	LG					25
Dan Feeney	RG	6'4, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8444	24
Ralston Evans	RT	6'4, 290	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8322	22
Peyton Eckert	RT					18
Jake Reed	C	6'4, 288	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8469	11
David Kaminski	LG					9
Jacob Bailey	RG	6'5, 298	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8342	5
Dimitric Camiel	LG	6'7, 319	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7900	4
Wes Rogers	C	6'4, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8631	3
DeAndre Herron	RG	6'5, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8285	0
Tim Gardner	RT	6'5, 310	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8000
Delroy Baker	LT	6'6, 305	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8409
Wes Martin	LG	6'3, 310	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8060
Brandon Knight	OL	6'5, 265	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8600
Hunter Littlejohn	OL	6'3, 285	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8513

5. Thinning out the herd

Because a couple younger players overtook veteran starters, IU's line finished 2014 with a unique level of experience. Eight players had started at least nine games, and another three had started at least three.

So now for another unique experience: Indiana loses four starters up front and returns four starters.

It's hard to know how good the Indiana line actually was. The Hoosiers ranked well in opportunity rate, but Coleman was able to create opportunities out of very little. Meanwhile, the passing downs sack rates were awful, but we know that had so much to do with wide-eyed freshman Zander Diamont spending half of the season behind center.

Whatever level of quality the line achieved, I would expect it to do a little bit better this year. The rushing stats will regress without Coleman, and the sack stats will improve with Sudfeld.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.89	87	IsoPPP+	96.2	79
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.7%	60	Succ. Rt. +	99.9	63
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.8	95	Off. FP+	97.0	99
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	5.0	118	Redzone S&P+	102.9	51
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	17.3		ACTUAL	17.0	-0.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	95	73	66	79
RUSHING	83	71	46	86
PASSING	97	74	92	66
Standard Downs		64	45	87
Passing Downs		90	111	73

Q1 Rk	28	1st Down Rk	98
Q2 Rk	88	2nd Down Rk	94
Q3 Rk	100	3rd Down Rk	118
Q4 Rk	105

6. They couldn't get off the field

Granted, the bar for defensive improvement was low, but Indiana absolutely improved.

The progress came in fits and starts -- for every step forward, there was a shove backwards (8 yards per play against Michigan State and, perhaps most damningly, 6.3 against Michigan), and the defense lost its edge when it was clear the offense wasn't going to get the job done, but the Hoosiers both made and prevented more plays under new defensive coordinator Brian Knorr.

The biggest improvement came in the prevention of big pass plays. The Hoosiers were among the nation's worst in 2013, ranking 123rd in Passing IsoPPP+ and allowing 15 passes of 40-plus yards (118th). In 2014, they improved to 66th in Passing IsoPPP+ and allowed just seven 40-plus passes (32nd). The cornerback trio of Tim Bennett, Michael Hunter, and Rashard Fant was solid, and safeties Antonio Allen, Mark Murphy, and Chase Dutra did well in over-the-top defense and play-making (combined: eight tackles for loss, seven interceptions, eight break-ups). [Update: Allen was dismissed from the team.]

That said, there were plenty of glitches. Big run plays were an issue. Open-field tackling was still a concern. The defense simply couldn't close out drives.

Indiana still would have beaten Bowling Green despite blowing scoring opportunities if they had been able to get off of the field -- BGSU converted seven third downs and two fourth downs and stayed on the field for 113 exhausting plays. And due in part to the lack of effective blitzing, opposing quarterbacks found they didn't need to go long to move the ball; they could just go short. Indiana allowed a 61.6 percent completion rate, 97th in the country.

Indiana improved at havoc and play prevention, but when the Hoosiers got the dagger in their hands, they dropped said dagger. And now they have to replace their only decent pass rusher and three of the six primary contributors in the secondary.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101.5	2.66	3.25	37.1%	60.0%	22.1%	83	4.9%	4.4%
Rank	53	31	64	45	25	32	95	57	115

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Bobby Richardson	DE					12	29.5	4.3%	9.5	5.5	0	1	0	0
Nick Mangieri	DE	6'5, 270	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8575	12	28.0	4.1%	2.0	2.0	1	2	0	0
Nate Hoff	NT	6'2, 300	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7500	12	22.5	3.3%	8.5	3.5	0	0	0	0
Darius Latham	DT	6'5, 305	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9113	12	20.0	2.9%	5.5	1.5	0	3	0	0
Ralph Green III	NT	6'5, 315	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8003	11	15.0	2.2%	4.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Shawn Heffern	DE	6'6, 275	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8407	12	12.5	1.8%	1.5	0.0	0	2	0	0
Adarius Rayner	DT	6'2, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333	12	9.0	1.3%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Christopher Cormier	NT					7	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Patrick Dougherty	DT	6'5, 285	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7947
Nick Carovillano	DE	6'4, 241	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8464
Mike Barwick, Jr.	DT	6'0, 290	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8482

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
T.J. Simmons	MLB	6'0, 233	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8104	12	59.0	8.7%	6.5	2.0	0	0	2	1
David Cooper	WLB					12	47.0	6.9%	3.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Forisse Hardin	SLB					12	42.5	6.2%	7.5	2.0	0	6	0	0
Tegray Scales	MLB	6'0, 220	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8766	12	37.5	5.5%	4.5	2.0	3	1	0	0
Marcus Oliver (2013)	WLB	6'1, 238	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8009	11	29.0	3.9%	2.5	0.0	0	0	2	0
Zack Shaw	BANDIT	6'3, 252	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8658	12	20.0	2.9%	4.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Clyde Newton	SLB	6'1, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8182	12	12.5	1.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Greg Gooch	WLB	6'2, 250	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8422	12	8.5	1.2%	1.5	0.0	1	1	0	0
Kyle Kennedy	MLB					11	8.0	1.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Chris Covington	LB	6'2, 225	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7000
Dameon Willis, Jr.	SLB	6'1, 225	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8342
Nile Sykes	BANDIT	6'2, 242	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8722
Omari Stringer	LB	6'4, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8271

7. There's a lot to like about this front seven

Rushing the passer was an issue in 2014 and very well could be again this fall. Only one defender logged more than 3.5 sacks (end Bobby Richardson), and he's gone. When your leading sacks guy is a nose tackle (sophomore Nate Hoff), that is probably a problem.

That said, there were quite a few freshmen and sophomores in the rotation last year, and IU still managed to play reasonably efficient run defense. Big plays were an issue at times, but Indiana was able to attack the interior of an opposing line rather well, and it resulted in a lot of run stops in the backfield.

Thirteen Hoosiers had at least 2.5 non-sack tackles for loss, which means Knorr had the athletes he needed and knew how to deceive blockers with them.

Despite the occasional big run, opponents knew patient passing was the safest plan, and it shows in the run-pass percentages above: opponents threw on IU 4.5 percent more than the national average on standard downs and 8.5 percent more on passing downs. They did not fear the pass rush like they feared run stuffs.

And considering the returning personnel, that will probably be the case again. Of the 13 two-point-fivers, eight are back, and the Hoosiers are still trying to figure out who've they've got to attack the passer. Maybe Nick Mangieri's change from OLB to defensive end reaps benefits? Maybe a youngster -- Nick Carovillano? Nile Sykes? Dameon Willis? Greg Gooch? -- finds a pass-rushing niche?

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tim Bennett	CB					12	59.5	8.7%	4	0	0	9	1	0
Antonio Allen	FS	5'10, 205	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8963	12	59.5	8.7%	3.5	1	2	1	0	0
Mark Murphy	SS					11	39.5	5.8%	2.5	0	2	2	0	0
Michael Hunter	CB					12	32.5	4.8%	3.5	0	1	5	0	0
Chase Dutra	SS	6'1, 205	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8356	12	30.0	4.4%	2	0	3	5	1	0
Rashard Fant	CB	5'10, 175	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8862	12	22.0	3.2%	0	0	0	5	0	0
Donovan Clark	CB	5'10, 180	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8382	12	16.5	2.4%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Tony Fields	FS	5'11, 205	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8435	12	11.5	1.7%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Kenny Mullen (2013)	CB	5'10, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8186	12	7.0	0.9%	1	1	0	2	0	0
Kiante Walton	SS	6'2, 206	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8056	12	7.0	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Grubbe	S					11	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Laray Smith	CB	6'0, 188	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8557
Noel Padmore	CB	5'11, 180	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8218
Will Dawkins	S	5'11, 198	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8625
Tyler Green	DB	6'2, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8668

8. Blank slate at corner

Antonio Allen was just a sophomore last year, and Chase Dutra was just a freshman. [Update: Allen was dismissed from the team.] That IU was able to prevent big pass plays with young safeties is an encouraging sign, even if then-senior Mark Murphy also played a role. Throw in mid-three-star sophomore Tony Fields, and it appears the Hoosiers have both potential and production in what is still a pretty young set of safeties.

But IU ranked in the 90s in Passing Success Rate+ last year, and that was with two good corners in Tim Bennett and Michael Hunter.

Bennett graduated, and Hunter transferred to Oklahoma State, and they leave behind a hefty set of sophomores. Rashard Fant was one of the most highly-touted recruits of the Wilson era and showed a high ceiling in breaking up five passes as the No. 3 corner, so perhaps he's ready to take on Big Ten No. 1s. But Indiana still needs another corner, and players like Donovan Clark, Laray Smith, and Noel Padmore are mostly unknowns. The return of backup Kenny Mullen after injury will help, and the upside is clear, but with pass rush woes unlikely to be solved, these young cornerbacks are going to be asked to do a lot.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Erich Toth	6'3, 208	Sr.	77	40.7	7	34	18	67.5%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Griffin Oakes	5'10, 197	So.	43	62.6	21	4	48.8%
Aaron Del Grosso	5'10, 196	So.	14	57.4	6	2	42.9%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Griffin Oakes	5'10, 197	So.	23-23	9-11	81.8%	4-7	57.1%
Aaron Del Grosso	5'10, 196	So.	12-12	1-3	33.3%	0-1	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
J-Shun Harris II	KR	5'8, 170	So.	19	20.6	0
Shane Wynn	KR			11	22.2	0
Shane Wynn	PR			13	5.3	0
J-Shun Harris II	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	89
Field Goal Efficiency	60
Punt Return Efficiency	94
Kick Return Efficiency	66
Punt Efficiency	101
Kickoff Efficiency	29
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	79

9. Shore up those coverage units

In theory, with a good run defense and the return of Sudfeld, Indiana could have the efficiency to do well in field position. But special teams has to help out more.

Returns were below average, and while kickoffs and place-kicking improved when Griffin Oakes overtook Aaron Del Grosso, punt coverage was abysmal. Despite Erich Toth averaging nearly 41 yards per punt and eliciting fair catches as often as not, any return opportunity went a long way. Toth had 34 fair catches, but opponents still managed five returns of 20-plus yards (116th in the country) and averaged 10.8 yards per return overall (108th). Shore this up and get a little more out of return man J-Shun Harris II [Update: Again, Harris is out for the year.], and you're in business.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rk
5-Sep	Southern Illinois	NR
12-Sep	Florida International	96
19-Sep	Western Kentucky	50
26-Sep	at Wake Forest	101
3-Oct	Ohio State	1
10-Oct	at Penn State	45
17-Oct	Rutgers	81
24-Oct	at Michigan State	11
7-Nov	Iowa	63
14-Nov	Michigan	54
21-Nov	at Maryland	62
28-Nov	at Purdue	84

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-15.1% (89)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	54 / 55
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-2 / -3.0
2014 TO Luck/Game	+0.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	11 (6, 5)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	5.1 (-1.1)

10. If the Hoosiers aren't bowling this year...

"But ultimately it's the scoreboard and the total wins and losses. It's all justification and coffee talk until you're winning seven and eight and nine and 10. We haven't won as much as we like for the players and fans. But we're getting better and more competitive and confident. Now that has to translate to making the play." [...]

"We're a work in progress. But we're definitely working and definitely progressing."

-- Kevin Wilson in Blueprint for a Rebuild

The plan went off course. Indiana took multiples steps forward in 2012 and 2013, but injuries poked a hole in the most vulnerable area of the depth chart (quarterback), and outside of Tevin Coleman, not enough skill guys stepped up. And while the defense improved, it didn't improve enough to offset drastic regression.

You can see how Indiana rebounds. There are holes at cornerback and in the pass rush, but IU could make progress on defense -- the run defense in particular should be strong -- and with Sudfeld, a decent line, and a couple of interesting running backs, you can talk yourself into the Hoosiers improving on offense. They won't reach 2013 levels, but 2012 levels (44th in Off. S&P+) aren't out of reach if a couple of young receivers emerge.

The question is, will this be enough? Will the young receivers prevent serious growth? And how high can the defensive ceiling be when the pass defense might not improve?

The schedule will help. Indiana only plays two teams that ranked better than 45th in F/+ and five that, like IU, ranked worse than 80th; if the Hoosiers can bounce back into the No. 60-75 range, there are wins on the table. Get to six, and maybe the program gets its juice back.

But if this ends up another 4-8 or 5-7 campaign, and IU heads into 2016 having to replace Sudfeld, it becomes a lot more difficult to see Wilson pulling Indiana out of the wreckage he inherited.