Alabama ranks ahead of Ohio State in 2015 advanced stats projections

Each year, Brian Fremeau and I make our separate projections (his FEI and my S&P+) for the official F/+ projections found in the Football Outsiders Almanac.

I use recent history, returning talent, and recent recruiting as the guide for my S&P+ part of the equation. I have tinkered with other factors -- NFL Draft value lost, previous year's late-season quality, etc. -- but I haven't come up with anything that performs better than this relatively simple version.

Below you'll find my initial S&P+ projections for 2015 (initial, because there will be an update right before the season with updated starter numbers and whatnot).

The process is to come up with three sets of projections based on five-year performance (weighted to make 2014 more important than 2013, and so on), the likely changes associated with each team's returning starter figures, and the likely changes associated with each team's two-year recruiting averages (recruiting rankings are relatively solid predictive stats).

I blend them together based on what has produced the best results in the past. That means recent history carrying the most weight and recruiting carrying the least.

Without further adieu, here are the 2015 projections. Analysis below the table.

Top projected teams in each conference

American

East: No. 47 Cincinnati, No. 60 UCF, No. 64 Temple
West: No. 58 Navy, No. 68 Memphis, No. 85 Houston

ACC

Atlantic: No. 15 Clemson, No. 17 Florida State, No. 32 Louisville
Coastal: No. 19 Georgia Tech, No. 26 Virginia Tech, No. 28 Miami

Big 12

No. 10 Oklahoma, No. 14 Baylor, No. 18 TCU, No. 33 Kansas State, No. 36 Texas

Big Ten

East: No. 2 Ohio State, No. 9 Michigan State, No. 35 Michigan
West: No. 25 Wisconsin, No. 30 Nebraska, No. 42 Minnesota

Conference USA

East: No. 41 Marshall, No. 61 WKU, No. 87 MTSU
West: No. 50 Louisiana Tech, No. 88 Rice, No. 99 UTEP

MAC

East: No. 94 BGSU, No. 96 Ohio, No. 97 Kent State
West: No. 65 WMU, No. 69 Toledo, No. 78 NIU

Mountain West

Mountain: No. 27 Boise State, No. 59 Utah State, No. 72 Colorado State
West: No. 77 SDSU, No. 82 Nevada, No. 93 Fresno State

Pac-12

North: No. 4 Oregon, No. 11 Stanford, No. 51 California
South: No. 7 UCLA, No. 13 USC, No. 24 Arizona State

SEC

East: No. 3 Georgia, No. 20 Tennessee, No. 23 Missouri
West: No. 1 Alabama, No. 5 Auburn, No. 6 Ole Miss

Sun Belt

No. 67 Georgia Southern, No. 71 Arkansas State, No. 83 UL-Lafayette

Some notes:

• Since I use recruiting rankings, even with a relatively low weight, that props up the usual suspects. It bumps Alabama to a projected No. 1 ranking (which actually surprises me -- I would have thought Ohio State was far enough ahead to keep the lead), and it is the main reason why LSU is projected eighth, USC 13th, etc. It's also why TCU, Georgia Tech, Boise State, etc., are projected to fall.
• Here's where I'll mention that these are based on statistical precedent. We sometimes take a cynical view toward recruiting rankings, at least when certain teams are involved. But they provide us with a glimpse of the talent in the pipeline for a given school.
  
• I've always wanted to figure out a relatively elegant way to combine the experience and recruiting figures. Like, if you return 19 starters, recruiting doesn't mean very much this year. Players from recent recruiting classes don't have many spots to fill on the two-deep. But if you return six starters, recruiting carries heavier weight. I haven't come up with a way to do it that actually makes the projections more predictive.
  
• The most surprising teams in the top 10: Georgia, Ole Miss, and UCLA. Well, Georgia being third is surprising. I included each set of rankings so you could understand what the numbers see. Georgia has been one of the most consistently awesome teams in the country (fourth in weighted five-year history) and benefits from that here.
• Ole Miss benefits from a wealth of returning starters (and the fact that the Rebels were first in S&P+ last year before Laquon Treadwell's injury).
• UCLA benefits both from returning starters and from recruiting. UCLA is this year's South Carolina, returning basically everybody but the players you can name from last year. That often works out well for a team, though South Carolina is obviously the cautionary tale.
  
• Another surprise: Oklahoma is 10th. If nothing else, this reminds you that the Sooners are not in the type of freefall that has accompanied their offseason story lines (just as they weren't a title contender last year because of a good bowl performance). I expected them to be in the top 15 because of their consistency, but ending up ahead of Baylor and TCU was surprising.
• Yes, your team is underrated and disrespected. I apologize for that.

As I always say, the role of stats is as a conversation starter, not a conversation finisher.

Good projections (and I like to think these are reasonably sound) give us the best way to start figuring out who will or won't be good in 2015. OU might be too high, TCU might be too low, etc., but this is a reminder that some teams you think highly of might not have a ton of margin for error, or a team you think is terrible might not be as far down as you thought.