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1. Bad vibes, man
For a moment, ignore the stories that have made the most noise during Tim Beckman's tenure at Illinois.
Ignore the poaching in Penn State's parking lot, ignore the disastrous first season in charge, and ignore a former lineman's Twitter rants about Beckman trying to force players to play hurt and passive-aggressively trying to get players to leave.
It's hard to put those things to the side, considering how much oxygen they have occupied in Beckman's three seasons, but let's do so for just a moment.
Focusing only on the on-field product, you can find evidence that Beckman has done a pretty good job. His Fighting Illini were dreadful in 2012, falling to 2-10 and 107th in the F/+ rankings, but they surged back to 4-8 and 74th in 2013, and with new bodies at quarterback, receiver, and throughout the defense, they not only held steady in the rankings last year (78th) but also eked out bowl eligibility. They went to the postseason for the first time since 2011 and the fourth since 2001.
In 2015, they return an experienced four-star quarterback (Wes Lunt), an explosive threat (Josh Ferguson), five of last year's top six receiving targets, five offensive linemen with starting experience, four of their top six defensive linemen, three of four linebackers, two experienced safeties, and basically every cornerback.
Looking at things from a certain angle, you could talk yourself into Illinois being ready for another 2013-level breakthrough. Depth is questionable, but the first string could be capable of an above-average Big Ten level.
The problem is that negativity creates narratives, and it is impossible to escape it. If we've heard about the problems and potential divides in the locker room, then the players have, too. If we've heard Beckman's name listed high on hot seat lists, the players have, too.
I often say you become your record; whether you are lucky or unlucky, precedent is in your memory. Good luck becomes confidence, and bad luck becomes fear. You could make the case that a team becomes its problems, too. For every example of a team banding together to prove clubhouse unity, there are two examples of a team failing to overcome negative vibes.
Just last year, Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald insisted his team was tight, and that there were no problems emanating from the union-or-no-union debate that in some cases put coach statements at odds with player statements. Northwestern proceeded to struggle in close games, lose to three teams with winning records, and finish a disappointing 5-7. Perhaps the union debate had nothing to do with the underachieving, but it's easy to tie those things together. And it will be easy to tie offseason discord with a slow start if Illinois suffers an early upset.
Still, Illinois has a manageable schedule and a solid first string. The Illini won't need much to finish bowl eligible again, and in theory it's not too late for Beckman.
It's up to Illinois to change the narrative. And that's pretty hard when narratives pick up steam.
2014 Schedule & Results
Record: 6-7 | Adj. Record: 7-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 78 | |||||||
Date | Opponent | Opp. F/+ Rk | Score | W-L | Percentile Performance |
Adj. Scoring Margin |
Win Expectancy |
30-Aug | Youngstown State | NR | 28-17 | W | 70% | 12.0 | 97% |
6-Sep | Western Kentucky | 50 | 42-34 | W | 87% | 26.0 | 92% |
13-Sep | at Washington | 58 | 19-44 | L | 14% | -25.3 | 0% |
20-Sep | Texas State | 95 | 42-35 | W | 81% | 20.8 | 84% |
27-Sep | at Nebraska | 30 | 14-45 | L | 24% | -16.3 | 0% |
4-Oct | Purdue | 84 | 27-38 | L | 35% | -9.1 | 25% |
11-Oct | at Wisconsin | 25 | 28-38 | L | 40% | -5.8 | 2% |
25-Oct | Minnesota | 37 | 28-24 | W | 68% | 10.7 | 53% |
1-Nov | at Ohio State | 1 | 14-55 | L | 13% | -26.7 | 0% |
15-Nov | Iowa | 63 | 14-30 | L | 14% | -25.6 | 0% |
22-Nov | Penn State | 45 | 16-14 | W | 56% | 3.7 | 40% |
29-Nov | at Northwestern | 71 | 47-33 | W | 91% | 31.0 | 99% |
26-Dec | vs. Louisiana Tech | 35 | 18-35 | L | 52% | 1.1 | 13% |
Category | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk |
S&P+ | 29.3 | 60 | 29.4 | 72 |
Points Per Game | 25.9 | 87 | 34.0 | 109 |
2. Three seasons
As with Rutgers, Illinois had a season that unfolded in three acts. And unlike Rutgers, Illinois' problems couldn't be explained by the propensity for egg-laying in big games.
- Average Percentile Performance (first 4 games): 63% (record: 3-1)
- Average Percentile Performance (next 6 games): 34% (record: 1-5)
- Average Percentile Performance (last 3 games): 66% (record: 2-1)
First, the Illini looked decent, playing like a top-50 team, surviving a solid WKU, and beginning 3-1. A 25-point loss to Washington on the West Coast proved unimpressive when Washington also proved unimpressive, but Illinois still looked promising.
But after posting stellar numbers through four games (66 percent completion rate, 11 touchdowns, three picks), quarterback Wes Lunt began to struggle with injuries. He was out for a feckless performance against Nebraska, and while backup Reilly O'Toole had his moments, the Illinois offense grew conservative, and the defense didn't respond to added pressure.
After allowing 5.1 yards per play through four games, the Illini allowed 7.2 over their next six, and Illinois lost five of six games to fall to 4-6.
Then came the rally. O'Toole began to thrive. He completed 66 percent with four touchdowns in wins over Penn State and Northwestern, and the defense found its groove against shaky offenses. Illinois rallied to 6-6, perhaps saving Beckman's job. The team ran into an inspired Louisiana Tech in the Cotton Bowl, but the rally still provided hope. If Lunt can find his early-2014 form, Illinois could play at a top-50 level.
Offense
FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE | ||||||
Raw Category | Rk | Opp. Adj. Category | Rk | |||
EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP | 0.91 | 35 | IsoPPP+ | 105.4 | 55 |
EFFICIENCY | Succ. Rt. | 38.7% | 97 | Succ. Rt. + | 97.8 | 75 |
FIELD POSITION | Def. Avg. FP | 29.0 | 50 | Def. FP+ | 106.1 | 12 |
FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Trip in 40 | 4.0 | 93 | Redzone S&P+ | 96.9 | 74 |
TURNOVERS | EXPECTED | 19.9 | ACTUAL | 22 | +2.1 |
Category | Yards/ Game Rk |
S&P+ Rk | Success Rt. Rk |
PPP+ Rk |
OVERALL | 97 | 61 | 69 | 55 |
RUSHING | 114 | 75 | 72 | 71 |
PASSING | 49 | 58 | 61 | 57 |
Standard Downs | 63 | 80 | 54 | |
Passing Downs | 61 | 53 | 64 |
Q1 Rk | 51 | 1st Down Rk | 56 |
Q2 Rk | 85 | 2nd Down Rk | 30 |
Q3 Rk | 85 | 3rd Down Rk | 91 |
Q4 Rk | 16 |
Quarterback
Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.
Player | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
Reilly O'Toole | 122 | 206 | 1344 | 10 | 8 | 59.2% | 21 | 9.3% | 5.3 | ||||
Wes Lunt | 6'5, 225 | Jr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.8892 | 153 | 241 | 1763 | 14 | 3 | 63.5% | 12 | 4.7% | 6.7 |
Aaron Bailey | 11 | 22 | 118 | 1 | 1 | 50.0% | 3 | 12.0% | 4.0 | ||||
Chayce Crouch | 6'4, 225 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8578 | |||||||||
Jimmy Fitzgerald | 6'3, 220 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8485 | |||||||||
Jeff George Jr. | 6'3, 190 | Fr. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.7875 |
3. Wes' time (maybe)
Illinois fan HQ
Illinois fan HQ
In 2012, Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy surprised many by naming true freshman Wes Lunt his starting quarterback. The Cowboys were coming off of an oh-so-close run at the national title, and Gundy was pressing the reset button, replacing the departed Brandon Weeden with a guy who was playing against high school defenses one fall earlier.
Early, Lunt backed up the faith. He completed 68 percent against Savannah State, Arizona, and UL-Lafayette, and while his three interceptions contributed to an upset loss at Arizona, his promise was obvious. Then he got hurt, struggled, and lost his job. He transferred to Illinois, sat out 2013, and watched the same story unfold. Early success: check. Midseason injury: check. Struggles with form resulting in benching: check.
The injuries were dissimilar, so there is no immediate reason to worry about him being injury-prone. Still, two seasons into what was supposed to be a four-star career, we haven't learned what Lunt might be capable of.
We might find out this year, and we might be impressed. We might also watch him cede control to a youngster like redshirt freshman Chayce Crouch or freshman Jimmy Fitzgerald. Neither would be surprising.
Running Back
Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
Fumbles | Fum. Lost |
Josh Ferguson | RB | 5'10, 195 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8257 | 145 | 741 | 8 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 35.2% | 7 | 4 |
Donovonn Young | RB | 94 | 379 | 6 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 33.0% | 0 | 0 | ||||
Reilly O'Toole | QB | 74 | 400 | 1 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 50.0% | 0 | 0 | ||||
Aaron Bailey | QB | 29 | 138 | 1 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 44.8% | 2 | 1 | ||||
Jon Davis | TE | 11 | 30 | 0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 27.3% | 0 | 0 | ||||
Devin Church | RB | 9 | 13 | 0 | 1.4 | 4.3 | 11.1% | 1 | 1 | ||||
Mike Dudek | WR | 5'11, 185 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8423 | 6 | 73 | 0 | 12.2 | 31.7 | 33.3% | 0 | 0 |
Wes Lunt | QB | 6'5, 225 | Jr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.8892 | 4 | -8 | 0 | -2.0 | 3.1 | 25.0% | 3 | 2 |
Kendrick Foster | RB | 5'9, 200 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8059 | ||||||||
Julian Hylton | RB | 6'0, 195 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8067 | ||||||||
Henry Enyenihi | RB | 5'11, 210 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8242 | ||||||||
Dre Brown | RB | 5'11, 200 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8744 | ||||||||
Ke'Shawn Vaughn | RB | 5'10, 200 | Fr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.8953 |
Receiving Corps
Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | Targets | Catches | Yards | Catch Rate | Target Rate |
%SD | Yds/ Target |
NEY | Real Yds/ Target |
RYPR |
Mike Dudek | WR-T | 5'11, 185 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8423 | 115 | 76 | 1038 | 66.1% | 25.2% | 49.6% | 9.0 | 124 | 9.2 | 132.1 |
Geronimo Allison | WR-X | 6'4, 195 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8535 | 78 | 42 | 605 | 53.8% | 17.1% | 56.4% | 7.8 | 79 | 7.8 | 77.0 |
Josh Ferguson | RB | 5'10, 195 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8257 | 63 | 50 | 427 | 79.4% | 13.8% | 58.7% | 6.8 | -156 | 6.8 | 54.4 |
Malik Turner | WR-Z | 6'3, 205 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8006 | 38 | 25 | 256 | 65.8% | 8.3% | 52.6% | 6.7 | -45 | 6.4 | 32.6 |
Martize Barr | WR-T | 37 | 19 | 249 | 51.4% | 8.1% | 54.1% | 6.7 | 8 | 6.8 | 31.7 | ||||
Justin Hardee | WR-Z | 6'1, 195 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8141 | 34 | 19 | 240 | 55.9% | 7.4% | 32.4% | 7.1 | 4 | 6.2 | 30.5 |
Matt LaCosse | TE | 28 | 14 | 117 | 50.0% | 6.1% | 71.4% | 4.2 | -61 | 4.1 | 14.9 | ||||
Jon Davis | TE | 27 | 15 | 175 | 55.6% | 5.9% | 59.3% | 6.5 | -12 | 6.4 | 22.3 | ||||
Donovonn Young | RB | 26 | 22 | 92 | 84.6% | 5.7% | 42.3% | 3.5 | -162 | 3.9 | 11.7 | ||||
Tyler White | TE | 6'5, 255 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8205 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 66.7% | 0.7% | 100.0% | 5.7 | -7 | NR | 2.2 |
Dionte Taylor | WR-T | 6'0, 190 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8221 | ||||||||||
Tyrin Stone-Davis | WR-X | 6'3, 195 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8685 | ||||||||||
Marchie Murdock | WR-X | 6'1, 195 | So. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7926 | ||||||||||
Andrew Davis | TE | 6'6, 225 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8141 | ||||||||||
Ainslie Johnson | TE | 6'2, 225 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.2) | 0.7744 | ||||||||||
Sam Mays | WR | 6'3, 200 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8588 | ||||||||||
Desmond Cain | WR | 5'11, 180 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8426 | ||||||||||
Caleb Reams | TE | 6'3, 225 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8332 |
4. A soft underbelly
Not every school boasts a running back with Josh Ferguson's explosiveness, and not every school returns a foursome of wideouts who combined youth, experience, efficiency, and explosiveness.
Ferguson is one of the country's more unique threats; when he reached the second level of a defense (which he didn't do as frequently as other backs in the conference), he was able to take the ball along way. Plus, he caught 50 passes out of the backfield. Using him and then-freshman Malik Turner as safety valves, the Illinois quarterback of choice was able to stretch defenses from side to side, then sometimes catch either Mike Dudek or Geronimo Allison (combined: 13.9 yards per catch) deep.
Ferguson was a known quantity. Dudek and Allison, however, redefined Illinois' passing game. The Illini had to replace their top three wideouts, and Dudek (a true freshman) and Allison (a JUCO transfer) stepped into huge roles with success.
Unfortunately, Dudek tore his ACL this spring and is expected to be out until at least October. While Allison had his moments (six catches for 160 yards against Washington, five for 118 against Nebraska, four for 72 against Louisiana Tech), Dudek was the water carrier. Allison, Turner, and senior Justin Hardee will all have to move up a weight class.
With a healthy Lunt, maybe that will work. Or maybe another JUCO transfer or true freshman will step up.
But Dudek's injury gave us a reminder that, beyond the first string, Illinois is drastically unproven. Ferguson rushed 145 times and caught 50 passes; no other returning back touched the ball. Lunt caught 76 passes; new backup T-receiver Dionte Taylor caught zero. There seems to be talent, but the underbelly of the depth chart is green.
Offensive Line
Category | Adj. Line Yds |
Std. Downs LY/carry |
Pass. Downs LY/carry |
Opp. Rate |
Power Success Rate |
Stuff Rate |
Adj. Sack Rate |
Std. Downs Sack Rt. |
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. |
Team | 92.9 | 2.65 | 2.38 | 37.4% | 63.9% | 24.2% | 95.4 | 7.0% | 6.1% |
Rank | 99 | 104 | 121 | 83 | 93 | 116 | 77 | 106 | 44 |
Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | Career Starts | Honors/Notes |
Michael Heitz | LG | 44 | |||||
Simon Cvijanovic | LT | 35 | |||||
Ted Karras | RG | 6'4, 310 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.7078 | 31 | |
Alex Hill | C | 24 | |||||
Joe Spencer | RG | 6'4, 300 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8739 | 14 | |
Christian DiLauro | RT | 6'5, 295 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8323 | 7 | |
Austin Schmidt | LT | 6'6, 295 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8051 | 4 | |
Pat Flavin | LT | 6'7, 300 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8568 | 2 | |
Chris Boles | OL | 6'4, 320 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8469 | 0 | |
Chris O'Connor | LG | 6'5, 300 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8207 | 0 | |
Harry Black | C | 6'5, 280 | So. | NR | NR | 0 | |
Nick Allegretti | OL | 6'4, 305 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8481 | 0 | |
Connor Brennan | OL | 6'5, 285 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.7885 | ||
Zach Heath | OL | 6'4, 290 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.7898 | ||
Jordan Fagan | OL | 6'6, 285 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8156 | ||
Gabe Megginson | OL | 6'5, 300 | Fr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.9182 | ||
Adam Solomon | OL | 6'5, 300 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8563 |
5. A weak line is less experienced
A decent stuff rate (run stops behind the line) for an offensive line is 18 percent or lower. A good sack rate probably comes in under 5 percent. Illinois missed both of those marks badly.
While it's always difficult to separate a line's success from that of the people it's blocking for, Illinois' line stats were subpar in both run blocking and pass protection. To a degree, this makes sense: longtime starters Simon Cvijanovic (as you probably know) and Ted Karras both got hurt, and the Illini were forced to juggle personnel. It didn't help that line coach A.J. Ricker left Champaign for alma mater Missouri in the summer, which forced some juggling on the staff as well.
The line now must replace three players who had combined for 103 career starts, but with at least six juniors and seniors, plus three JUCO signees and a four-star freshman (Gabe Megginson), the components are there for a line that combines upside and some level of experience. This line might not be great, but with experience at both quarterback and running back as well, I would expect the line stats to improve.
Defense
FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE | ||||||
Raw Category | Rk | Opp. Adj. Category | Rk | |||
EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP | 0.93 | 106 | IsoPPP+ | 94.6 | 87 |
EFFICIENCY | Succ. Rt. | 42.0% | 75 | Succ. Rt. + | 100.4 | 62 |
FIELD POSITION | Off. Avg. FP | 30.6 | 57 | Off. FP+ | 100.0 | 65 |
FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Trip in 40 | 4.6 | 84 | Redzone S&P+ | 107.2 | 42 |
TURNOVERS | EXPECTED | 20.2 | ACTUAL | 19.0 | -1.2 |
Category | Yards/ Game Rk |
S&P+ Rk | Success Rt. Rk |
PPP+ Rk |
OVERALL | 112 | 74 | 58 | 87 |
RUSHING | 118 | 78 | 82 | 83 |
PASSING | 48 | 70 | 40 | 101 |
Standard Downs | 71 | 61 | 81 | |
Passing Downs | 93 | 62 | 97 |
Q1 Rk | 66 | 1st Down Rk | 76 |
Q2 Rk | 48 | 2nd Down Rk | 76 |
Q3 Rk | 70 | 3rd Down Rk | 91 |
Q4 Rk | 100 |
6. Opponents knew to run
Technically, the Illinois defense improved. After ranking a dreadful 103rd in Def. S&P+ in 2013, it improved to 72nd, showing genuine promise in the first four and last three games of the season (and, yes, committing defensive atrocities in between).
The Illini wanted to be as aggressive as possible and were able to utilize some unique talents in the secondary. With safeties Zane Petty and Earnest Thomas III (combined: 11 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, nine passes defensed) leading, Illinois improved from 102nd to 40th in Passing Success Rate+, and while big plays were an issue, opponents knew passing was risky.
Running was not risky at all, and opponents knew that, too. Illinois was able to make some plays near the line of scrimmage -- nine Illini had at least 2.5 non-sack tackles for loss -- but still ranked 82nd in Rushing Success Rate+. Opponents ran the ball 5 percent more frequently than the national average on standard downs and 14 percent more on passing downs. The passing downs pass rush was strong, but it didn't matter.
Defensive Line
Category | Adj. Line Yds |
Std. Downs LY/carry |
Pass. Downs LY/carry |
Opp. Rate |
Power Success Rate |
Stuff Rate |
Adj. Sack Rate |
Std. Downs Sack Rt. |
Pass. Downs Sack Rt. |
Team | 97.8 | 3.00 | 3.19 | 39.4% | 67.2% | 18.7% | 97.9 | 4.2% | 8.6% |
Rank | 73 | 75 | 53 | 73 | 63 | 75 | 71 | 78 | 43 |
Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | GP | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Austin Teitsma | NT | 13 | 39.5 | 5.2% | 9.5 | 3.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Jihad Ward | DE | 6'6, 295 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8825 | 13 | 36.0 | 4.7% | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Dawuane Smoot | LEO | 6'3, 270 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8140 | 13 | 25.0 | 3.3% | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rob Bain | DT | 6'3, 305 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | NR | 13 | 22.0 | 2.9% | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
DeJazz Woods | LEO | 13 | 19.0 | 2.5% | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Jarrod Clements | DT | 6'3, 290 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8590 | 13 | 17.0 | 2.2% | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Joe Fotu | NT | 6'3, 285 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.8035 | 7 | 5.5 | 0.7% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Kenny Nelson | DL | 6'6, 250 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7960 | 5 | 5.5 | 0.7% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Teko Powell | DL | 6'3, 305 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8461 | 3 | 5.0 | 0.7% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jake Howe | NT | 13 | 4.0 | 0.5% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Paul James III | DE | 6'4, 255 | So. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8753 | |||||||||
Nathan Echard | LEO | 6'2, 230 | So. | NR | NR | |||||||||
Tito Odenigbo | DL | 6'3, 280 | RSFr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8389 | |||||||||
Sean Adesanya | LEO | 6'3, 230 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8500 | |||||||||
Jamal Milan | DT | 6'2, 310 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8494 |
Linebackers
Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | GP | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Mason Monheim | WLB | 6'1, 235 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8301 | 13 | 77.0 | 10.1% | 6.5 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
T.J. Neal | MLB | 6'1, 235 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8515 | 13 | 64.5 | 8.5% | 6.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Mike Svetina (2013) | WLB | 6'2, 235 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.7500 | 12 | 41.0 | 5.8% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Ralph Cooper | MLB | 13 | 16.0 | 2.1% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
LaKeith Walls | WLB | 6'2, 215 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8317 | 13 | 14.5 | 1.9% | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Carroll Phillips | LB | 6'3, 230 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.7793 | 7 | 5.0 | 0.7% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
B.J. Bello | MLB | 6'3, 225 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7759 | |||||||||
Justice Williams | LB | 6'3, 200 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8339 |
7. Some nice pieces on paper
In an attempt to help out the front, Beckman brought in longtime NFL defensive line coach Mike Phair as co-coordinator and moved coordinator Tim Banks to a shared role.
Despite the loss of a decent tackle in Austin Teitsma, it does seem that Phair will have pieces up front: JUCO transfer Jihad Ward was a success at end, and Dawuane Smoot proved decent in handling the hybrid roles of the LEO position. [Update: Ward will be out for at least one game with injury.]
If they can improve while highly touted backups like tackle Jarrod Clements, end Paul James III, and JUCO transfer Sean Adesanya begin to live up to their hype, Illinois could be pretty strong, especially considering the return of last year's top two linebackers (Mason Monheim and T.J. Neal) and 2013 contributor Mike Svetina, who missed 2014 with injury.
Of course, Ward, Smoot, Monheim, and Neal were all involved last year, too, and produced solid stats in the process. That didn't stop the whole from becoming less than the sum of the parts.
Secondary
Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Rivals | 247 Comp. | GP | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
Zane Petty | SS | 13 | 79.0 | 10.4% | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Taylor Barton | FS | 6'1, 215 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8025 | 12 | 72.0 | 9.4% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Earnest Thomas III | STAR | 13 | 48.0 | 6.3% | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ||||
Eaton Spence | CB | 6'0, 185 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.3) | 0.7852 | 13 | 41.5 | 5.4% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Clayton Fejedelem | FS | 6'1, 195 | Sr. | NR | NR | 13 | 39.5 | 5.2% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
V'Angelo Bentley | CB | 5'10, 190 | Sr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8430 | 12 | 33.0 | 4.3% | 3.5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Darius Mosely | CB | 5'11, 190 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8703 | 13 | 23.0 | 3.0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaylen Dunlap (2013) | CB | 6'1, 185 | Jr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7951 | 12 | 22.0 | 3.1% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Caleb Day | DB | 6'1, 200 | Jr. | 4 stars (5.8) | 0.8722 | 12 | 14.0 | 1.8% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eric Finney | STAR | 6'0, 220 | Sr. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.7859 | 13 | 11.5 | 1.5% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Zepheniah Grimes | STAR | 13 | 10.5 | 1.4% | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Jevaris Little | SS | 6'0, 190 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.7400 | 12 | 7.5 | 1.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Dillan Cazley | CB | 5'10, 190 | Jr. | 3 stars (5.6) | 0.8360 | 13 | 4.5 | 0.6% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Davontay Kwaaning | CB | 5'11, 190 | Sr. | NR | NR | 12 | 4.0 | 0.5% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Darwyn Kelly | SS | 6'1, 210 | So. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8306 | |||||||||
James Crawford | FS | 6'2, 215 | So. | 2 stars (5.4) | 0.8500 | |||||||||
Patrick Nelson | DB | 6'0, 205 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.7) | 0.8459 | |||||||||
Trenard Davis | DB | 5'11, 190 | Fr. | 3 stars (5.5) | 0.8440 |
8. Petty and Thomas were play-makers
Yes, there were issues with big plays. Illinois allowed 12 passes of 40-plus yards, 94th in the country, but you can get away with allowing the occasional bomb if you're taking care of business the rest of the time. And with a strong pass rush and an aggressive secondary, Illinois did that.
Every cornerback returns, including two experienced players in Eaton Spence and V'Angelo Bentley. Bentley has recorded 7.5 tackles for loss over the last two years, which is just about as good as you're going to find, and Spence was solid.
Still, losing Zane Petty and Earnest Thomas III hurts a lot. Petty was a solid last-line-of-defense guy, and Thomas, playing the hybrid STAR position, was both a decent defensive back and Illinois' best blitzer. He led the team in sacks and tackles for loss, which is absurd for a safety, even a nickel back/outside linebacker type.
Illinois is not without experience at safety: both Taylor Barton and Clayton Fejedelem got plenty of experience last season, and Fejedelem's story -- NAIA star decides to see if he can cut it in FBS, walks on, and plays a large role in his first year eligible -- makes him an easy guy to root for. Still, they didn't make nearly as many plays as Petty and Thomas did, and without that disruptive presence, Illinois might need an improved run defense just to break even.
Special Teams
Punter | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
Justin DuVernois | 77 | 44.0 | 7 | 17 | 20 | 48.1% |
Kicker | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Kickoffs | Avg | TB | OOB | TB% |
Taylor Zalewski | 6'3, 220 | Sr. | 51 | 62.6 | 28 | 2 | 54.9% |
David Reisner | 6'0, 195 | Jr. | 10 | 62.4 | 5 | 1 | 50.0% |
Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
PAT | FG (0-39) |
Pct | FG (40+) |
Pct |
David Reisner | 6'0, 195 | Jr. | 22-24 | 5-7 | 71.4% | 1-4 | 25.0% |
Taylor Zalewski | 6'3, 220 | Sr. | 16-18 | 3-4 | 75.0% | 0-2 | 0.0% |
Returner | Pos. | Ht, Wt | 2015 Year |
Returns | Avg. | TD |
V'Angelo Bentley | KR | 5'10, 190 | Sr. | 32 | 21.6 | 0 |
Darius Mosely | KR | 5'11, 190 | Jr. | 4 | 10.8 | 0 |
V'Angelo Bentley | PR | 5'10, 190 | Sr. | 12 | 10.3 | 0 |
Darius Mosely | PR | 5'11, 190 | Jr. | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Category | Rk |
Special Teams F/+ | 51 |
Field Goal Efficiency | 121 |
Punt Return Efficiency | 21 |
Kick Return Efficiency | 21 |
Punt Efficiency | 40 |
Kickoff Efficiency | 72 |
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency | 45 |
9. A place-kicking mess
Illinois had most of the components of a good special teams unit. The return game was strong, which was customary for most Big Ten teams, but unlike a lot of the conference, Illinois had solid kick coverage as well. All UI needed was a decent place-kicker to give the Illini one of the best special teams units in the conference.
Instead, UI had one of the 10 worst field goal efficiency ratings in the country. Granted, a lot of that came from longer kicks -- Illinois was just 1-for-6 on field goals over 40 yards, which are a bit of a luxury in college football -- but David Reisner and Taylor Zalewski also combined to miss four PATs and three field goals under 40 yards.
This didn't cost them as much as it could have; they were still 4-0 in one-possession games, after all. But those close wins were a grave necessity for Illinois, and having a shaky kicker is playing with fire.
2015 Schedule & Projection Factors
2015 Schedule | ||
Date | Opponent | 2014 F/+ Rk |
4-Sep | Kent State | 107 |
12-Sep | Western Illinois | NR |
19-Sep | at North Carolina | 70 |
26-Sep | Middle Tennessee | 87 |
3-Oct | Nebraska | 30 |
10-Oct | at Iowa | 63 |
24-Oct | Wisconsin | 25 |
31-Oct | at Penn State | 45 |
7-Nov | at Purdue | 84 |
14-Nov | Ohio State | 1 |
21-Nov | at Minnesota | 37 |
28-Nov | Northwestern | 71 |
Five-Year F/+ Rk | -5.1% (69) |
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk | 57 / 54 |
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* | -3 / 0.3 |
2014 TO Luck/Game | -1.3 |
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.) | 14 (6, 8) |
2014 Second-order wins (difference) | 5.1 (0.9) |
10. Start fast
An interview with Tim Beckman
An interview with Tim Beckman
When you've got negative story lines, the most constructive thing you can possibly do is win early. All of the offseason narratives get folded into, or taken out of, wins and losses. If Illinois wins at North Carolina and is 4-0 when Nebraska comes to town on October 3, Cvijanovic and his accusations disappear, whether they should or not.
On the flipside, any early slip-up will be given double meaning. And narratives aside, another bowl bid depends on a fast start. Illinois plays six teams that ranked worse than 70th in last year's F/+ rankings, and four come in the first four games of the year. Start 2-2, and you're probably not getting to 6-6.
When healthy, Wes Lunt has shown high upside, and even if he's missing Mike Dudek, he's still got Josh Ferguson, Geronimo Allison, and some high-upside youngsters at his disposal. And the defense might be able to shore up its weaknesses enough to offset the loss of a couple of strengths.
Tim Beckman can still succeed in Champaign. If Illinois can maintain the top-40 or top-50 form that it showed for half of last season, there are wins on the schedule. And if nothing serious becomes of Cvijanovic's accusations, then there is a pathway out of the hole Beckman dug himself.
But it takes two significant ifs for Beckman to survive.