Tim Beckman needs good breaks to survive 2015 as Illinois' head coach

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1. Bad vibes, man

For a moment, ignore the stories that have made the most noise during Tim Beckman's tenure at Illinois.

Ignore the poaching in Penn State's parking lot, ignore the disastrous first season in charge, and ignore a former lineman's Twitter rants about Beckman trying to force players to play hurt and passive-aggressively trying to get players to leave.

It's hard to put those things to the side, considering how much oxygen they have occupied in Beckman's three seasons, but let's do so for just a moment.

Focusing only on the on-field product, you can find evidence that Beckman has done a pretty good job. His Fighting Illini were dreadful in 2012, falling to 2-10 and 107th in the F/+ rankings, but they surged back to 4-8 and 74th in 2013, and with new bodies at quarterback, receiver, and throughout the defense, they not only held steady in the rankings last year (78th) but also eked out bowl eligibility. They went to the postseason for the first time since 2011 and the fourth since 2001.

In 2015, they return an experienced four-star quarterback (Wes Lunt), an explosive threat (Josh Ferguson), five of last year's top six receiving targets, five offensive linemen with starting experience, four of their top six defensive linemen, three of four linebackers, two experienced safeties, and basically every cornerback.

Looking at things from a certain angle, you could talk yourself into Illinois being ready for another 2013-level breakthrough. Depth is questionable, but the first string could be capable of an above-average Big Ten level.

The problem is that negativity creates narratives, and it is impossible to escape it. If we've heard about the problems and potential divides in the locker room, then the players have, too. If we've heard Beckman's name listed high on hot seat lists, the players have, too.

I often say you become your record; whether you are lucky or unlucky, precedent is in your memory. Good luck becomes confidence, and bad luck becomes fear. You could make the case that a team becomes its problems, too. For every example of a team banding together to prove clubhouse unity, there are two examples of a team failing to overcome negative vibes.

Just last year, Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald insisted his team was tight, and that there were no problems emanating from the union-or-no-union debate that in some cases put coach statements at odds with player statements. Northwestern proceeded to struggle in close games, lose to three teams with winning records, and finish a disappointing 5-7. Perhaps the union debate had nothing to do with the underachieving, but it's easy to tie those things together. And it will be easy to tie offseason discord with a slow start if Illinois suffers an early upset.

Still, Illinois has a manageable schedule and a solid first string. The Illini won't need much to finish bowl eligible again, and in theory it's not too late for Beckman.

It's up to Illinois to change the narrative. And that's pretty hard when narratives pick up steam.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-7 | Adj. Record: 7-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 78
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	Youngstown State	NR	28-17	W	70%	12.0	97%
6-Sep	Western Kentucky	50	42-34	W	87%	26.0	92%
13-Sep	at Washington	58	19-44	L	14%	-25.3	0%
20-Sep	Texas State	95	42-35	W	81%	20.8	84%
27-Sep	at Nebraska	30	14-45	L	24%	-16.3	0%
4-Oct	Purdue	84	27-38	L	35%	-9.1	25%
11-Oct	at Wisconsin	25	28-38	L	40%	-5.8	2%
25-Oct	Minnesota	37	28-24	W	68%	10.7	53%
1-Nov	at Ohio State	1	14-55	L	13%	-26.7	0%
15-Nov	Iowa	63	14-30	L	14%	-25.6	0%
22-Nov	Penn State	45	16-14	W	56%	3.7	40%
29-Nov	at Northwestern	71	47-33	W	91%	31.0	99%
26-Dec	vs. Louisiana Tech	35	18-35	L	52%	1.1	13%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	29.3	60	29.4	72
Points Per Game	25.9	87	34.0	109

2. Three seasons

As with Rutgers, Illinois had a season that unfolded in three acts. And unlike Rutgers, Illinois' problems couldn't be explained by the propensity for egg-laying in big games.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 4 games): 63% (record: 3-1)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 6 games): 34% (record: 1-5)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 3 games): 66% (record: 2-1)

First, the Illini looked decent, playing like a top-50 team, surviving a solid WKU, and beginning 3-1. A 25-point loss to Washington on the West Coast proved unimpressive when Washington also proved unimpressive, but Illinois still looked promising.

But after posting stellar numbers through four games (66 percent completion rate, 11 touchdowns, three picks), quarterback Wes Lunt began to struggle with injuries. He was out for a feckless performance against Nebraska, and while backup Reilly O'Toole had his moments, the Illinois offense grew conservative, and the defense didn't respond to added pressure.

After allowing 5.1 yards per play through four games, the Illini allowed 7.2 over their next six, and Illinois lost five of six games to fall to 4-6.

Then came the rally. O'Toole began to thrive. He completed 66 percent with four touchdowns in wins over Penn State and Northwestern, and the defense found its groove against shaky offenses. Illinois rallied to 6-6, perhaps saving Beckman's job. The team ran into an inspired Louisiana Tech in the Cotton Bowl, but the rally still provided hope. If Lunt can find his early-2014 form, Illinois could play at a top-50 level.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.91	35	IsoPPP+	105.4	55
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.7%	97	Succ. Rt. +	97.8	75
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.0	50	Def. FP+	106.1	12
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.0	93	Redzone S&P+	96.9	74
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.9		ACTUAL	22	+2.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	97	61	69	55
RUSHING	114	75	72	71
PASSING	49	58	61	57
Standard Downs		63	80	54
Passing Downs		61	53	64

Q1 Rk	51	1st Down Rk	56
Q2 Rk	85	2nd Down Rk	30
Q3 Rk	85	3rd Down Rk	91
Q4 Rk	16

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Reilly O'Toole					122	206	1344	10	8	59.2%	21	9.3%	5.3
Wes Lunt	6'5, 225	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8892	153	241	1763	14	3	63.5%	12	4.7%	6.7
Aaron Bailey					11	22	118	1	1	50.0%	3	12.0%	4.0
Chayce Crouch	6'4, 225	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8578
Jimmy Fitzgerald	6'3, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8485
Jeff George Jr.	6'3, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7875

3. Wes' time (maybe)

In 2012, Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy surprised many by naming true freshman Wes Lunt his starting quarterback. The Cowboys were coming off of an oh-so-close run at the national title, and Gundy was pressing the reset button, replacing the departed Brandon Weeden with a guy who was playing against high school defenses one fall earlier.

Early, Lunt backed up the faith. He completed 68 percent against Savannah State, Arizona, and UL-Lafayette, and while his three interceptions contributed to an upset loss at Arizona, his promise was obvious. Then he got hurt, struggled, and lost his job. He transferred to Illinois, sat out 2013, and watched the same story unfold. Early success: check. Midseason injury: check. Struggles with form resulting in benching: check.

The injuries were dissimilar, so there is no immediate reason to worry about him being injury-prone. Still, two seasons into what was supposed to be a four-star career, we haven't learned what Lunt might be capable of.

We might find out this year, and we might be impressed. We might also watch him cede control to a youngster like redshirt freshman Chayce Crouch or freshman Jimmy Fitzgerald. Neither would be surprising.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Josh Ferguson	RB	5'10, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8257	145	741	8	5.1	7.2	35.2%	7	4
Donovonn Young	RB					94	379	6	4.0	3.5	33.0%	0	0
Reilly O'Toole	QB					74	400	1	5.4	3.8	50.0%	0	0
Aaron Bailey	QB					29	138	1	4.8	4.6	44.8%	2	1
Jon Davis	TE					11	30	0	2.7	1.1	27.3%	0	0
Devin Church	RB					9	13	0	1.4	4.3	11.1%	1	1
Mike Dudek	WR	5'11, 185	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8423	6	73	0	12.2	31.7	33.3%	0	0
Wes Lunt	QB	6'5, 225	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8892	4	-8	0	-2.0	3.1	25.0%	3	2
Kendrick Foster	RB	5'9, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8059
Julian Hylton	RB	6'0, 195	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8067
Henry Enyenihi	RB	5'11, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8242
Dre Brown	RB	5'11, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8744
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	RB	5'10, 200	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8953

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Mike Dudek	WR-T	5'11, 185	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8423	115	76	1038	66.1%	25.2%	49.6%	9.0	124	9.2	132.1
Geronimo Allison	WR-X	6'4, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8535	78	42	605	53.8%	17.1%	56.4%	7.8	79	7.8	77.0
Josh Ferguson	RB	5'10, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8257	63	50	427	79.4%	13.8%	58.7%	6.8	-156	6.8	54.4
Malik Turner	WR-Z	6'3, 205	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8006	38	25	256	65.8%	8.3%	52.6%	6.7	-45	6.4	32.6
Martize Barr	WR-T					37	19	249	51.4%	8.1%	54.1%	6.7	8	6.8	31.7
Justin Hardee	WR-Z	6'1, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8141	34	19	240	55.9%	7.4%	32.4%	7.1	4	6.2	30.5
Matt LaCosse	TE					28	14	117	50.0%	6.1%	71.4%	4.2	-61	4.1	14.9
Jon Davis	TE					27	15	175	55.6%	5.9%	59.3%	6.5	-12	6.4	22.3
Donovonn Young	RB					26	22	92	84.6%	5.7%	42.3%	3.5	-162	3.9	11.7
Tyler White	TE	6'5, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8205	3	2	17	66.7%	0.7%	100.0%	5.7	-7	NR	2.2
Dionte Taylor	WR-T	6'0, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8221
Tyrin Stone-Davis	WR-X	6'3, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8685
Marchie Murdock	WR-X	6'1, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7926
Andrew Davis	TE	6'6, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8141
Ainslie Johnson	TE	6'2, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7744
Sam Mays	WR	6'3, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8588
Desmond Cain	WR	5'11, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8426
Caleb Reams	TE	6'3, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8332

4. A soft underbelly

Not every school boasts a running back with Josh Ferguson's explosiveness, and not every school returns a foursome of wideouts who combined youth, experience, efficiency, and explosiveness.

Ferguson is one of the country's more unique threats; when he reached the second level of a defense (which he didn't do as frequently as other backs in the conference), he was able to take the ball along way. Plus, he caught 50 passes out of the backfield. Using him and then-freshman Malik Turner as safety valves, the Illinois quarterback of choice was able to stretch defenses from side to side, then sometimes catch either Mike Dudek or Geronimo Allison (combined: 13.9 yards per catch) deep.

Ferguson was a known quantity. Dudek and Allison, however, redefined Illinois' passing game. The Illini had to replace their top three wideouts, and Dudek (a true freshman) and Allison (a JUCO transfer) stepped into huge roles with success.

Unfortunately, Dudek tore his ACL this spring and is expected to be out until at least October. While Allison had his moments (six catches for 160 yards against Washington, five for 118 against Nebraska, four for 72 against Louisiana Tech), Dudek was the water carrier. Allison, Turner, and senior Justin Hardee will all have to move up a weight class.

With a healthy Lunt, maybe that will work. Or maybe another JUCO transfer or true freshman will step up.

But Dudek's injury gave us a reminder that, beyond the first string, Illinois is drastically unproven. Ferguson rushed 145 times and caught 50 passes; no other returning back touched the ball. Lunt caught 76 passes; new backup T-receiver Dionte Taylor caught zero. There seems to be talent, but the underbelly of the depth chart is green.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	92.9	2.65	2.38	37.4%	63.9%	24.2%	95.4	7.0%	6.1%
Rank	99	104	121	83	93	116	77	106	44

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Michael Heitz	LG					44
Simon Cvijanovic	LT					35
Ted Karras	RG	6'4, 310	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7078	31
Alex Hill	C					24
Joe Spencer	RG	6'4, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8739	14
Christian DiLauro	RT	6'5, 295	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8323	7
Austin Schmidt	LT	6'6, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8051	4
Pat Flavin	LT	6'7, 300	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8568	2
Chris Boles	OL	6'4, 320	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8469	0
Chris O'Connor	LG	6'5, 300	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8207	0
Harry Black	C	6'5, 280	So.	NR	NR	0
Nick Allegretti	OL	6'4, 305	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8481	0
Connor Brennan	OL	6'5, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7885
Zach Heath	OL	6'4, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7898
Jordan Fagan	OL	6'6, 285	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8156
Gabe Megginson	OL	6'5, 300	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9182
Adam Solomon	OL	6'5, 300	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8563

5. A weak line is less experienced

A decent stuff rate (run stops behind the line) for an offensive line is 18 percent or lower. A good sack rate probably comes in under 5 percent. Illinois missed both of those marks badly.

While it's always difficult to separate a line's success from that of the people it's blocking for, Illinois' line stats were subpar in both run blocking and pass protection. To a degree, this makes sense: longtime starters Simon Cvijanovic (as you probably know) and Ted Karras both got hurt, and the Illini were forced to juggle personnel. It didn't help that line coach A.J. Ricker left Champaign for alma mater Missouri in the summer, which forced some juggling on the staff as well.

The line now must replace three players who had combined for 103 career starts, but with at least six juniors and seniors, plus three JUCO signees and a four-star freshman (Gabe Megginson), the components are there for a line that combines upside and some level of experience. This line might not be great, but with experience at both quarterback and running back as well, I would expect the line stats to improve.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.93	106	IsoPPP+	94.6	87
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.0%	75	Succ. Rt. +	100.4	62
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.6	57	Off. FP+	100.0	65
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.6	84	Redzone S&P+	107.2	42
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.2		ACTUAL	19.0	-1.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	112	74	58	87
RUSHING	118	78	82	83
PASSING	48	70	40	101
Standard Downs		71	61	81
Passing Downs		93	62	97

Q1 Rk	66	1st Down Rk	76
Q2 Rk	48	2nd Down Rk	76
Q3 Rk	70	3rd Down Rk	91
Q4 Rk	100

6. Opponents knew to run

Technically, the Illinois defense improved. After ranking a dreadful 103rd in Def. S&P+ in 2013, it improved to 72nd, showing genuine promise in the first four and last three games of the season (and, yes, committing defensive atrocities in between).

The Illini wanted to be as aggressive as possible and were able to utilize some unique talents in the secondary. With safeties Zane Petty and Earnest Thomas III (combined: 11 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, nine passes defensed) leading, Illinois improved from 102nd to 40th in Passing Success Rate+, and while big plays were an issue, opponents knew passing was risky.

Running was not risky at all, and opponents knew that, too. Illinois was able to make some plays near the line of scrimmage -- nine Illini had at least 2.5 non-sack tackles for loss -- but still ranked 82nd in Rushing Success Rate+. Opponents ran the ball 5 percent more frequently than the national average on standard downs and 14 percent more on passing downs. The passing downs pass rush was strong, but it didn't matter.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	97.8	3.00	3.19	39.4%	67.2%	18.7%	97.9	4.2%	8.6%
Rank	73	75	53	73	63	75	71	78	43

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Austin Teitsma	NT					13	39.5	5.2%	9.5	3.0	0	1	0	0
Jihad Ward	DE	6'6, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8825	13	36.0	4.7%	8.5	3.0	0	1	2	2
Dawuane Smoot	LEO	6'3, 270	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8140	13	25.0	3.3%	7.5	2.5	0	2	0	0
Rob Bain	DT	6'3, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	NR	13	22.0	2.9%	4.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
DeJazz Woods	LEO					13	19.0	2.5%	4.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Jarrod Clements	DT	6'3, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8590	13	17.0	2.2%	6.0	2.0	0	3	1	0
Joe Fotu	NT	6'3, 285	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8035	7	5.5	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kenny Nelson	DL	6'6, 250	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7960	5	5.5	0.7%	3.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Teko Powell	DL	6'3, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8461	3	5.0	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jake Howe	NT					13	4.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Paul James III	DE	6'4, 255	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8753
Nathan Echard	LEO	6'2, 230	So.	NR	NR
Tito Odenigbo	DL	6'3, 280	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8389
Sean Adesanya	LEO	6'3, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8500
Jamal Milan	DT	6'2, 310	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8494

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Mason Monheim	WLB	6'1, 235	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8301	13	77.0	10.1%	6.5	1.0	2	2	4	0
T.J. Neal	MLB	6'1, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8515	13	64.5	8.5%	6.5	0.0	1	4	1	0
Mike Svetina (2013)	WLB	6'2, 235	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7500	12	41.0	5.8%	2.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Ralph Cooper	MLB					13	16.0	2.1%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
LaKeith Walls	WLB	6'2, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8317	13	14.5	1.9%	2.0	2.0	0	0	1	0
Carroll Phillips	LB	6'3, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7793	7	5.0	0.7%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	1
B.J. Bello	MLB	6'3, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7759
Justice Williams	LB	6'3, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8339

7. Some nice pieces on paper

In an attempt to help out the front, Beckman brought in longtime NFL defensive line coach Mike Phair as co-coordinator and moved coordinator Tim Banks to a shared role.

Despite the loss of a decent tackle in Austin Teitsma, it does seem that Phair will have pieces up front: JUCO transfer Jihad Ward was a success at end, and Dawuane Smoot proved decent in handling the hybrid roles of the LEO position. [Update: Ward will be out for at least one game with injury.]

If they can improve while highly touted backups like tackle Jarrod Clements, end Paul James III, and JUCO transfer Sean Adesanya begin to live up to their hype, Illinois could be pretty strong, especially considering the return of last year's top two linebackers (Mason Monheim and T.J. Neal) and 2013 contributor Mike Svetina, who missed 2014 with injury.

Of course, Ward, Smoot, Monheim, and Neal were all involved last year, too, and produced solid stats in the process. That didn't stop the whole from becoming less than the sum of the parts.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Zane Petty	SS					13	79.0	10.4%	1.5	0	0	8	0	0
Taylor Barton	FS	6'1, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8025	12	72.0	9.4%	1	0	1	2	2	0
Earnest Thomas III	STAR					13	48.0	6.3%	9.5	4.5	1	0	1	0
Eaton Spence	CB	6'0, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7852	13	41.5	5.4%	1	0	1	6	0	0
Clayton Fejedelem	FS	6'1, 195	Sr.	NR	NR	13	39.5	5.2%	1	0	0	2	0	1
V'Angelo Bentley	CB	5'10, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8430	12	33.0	4.3%	3.5	0	1	2	0	2
Darius Mosely	CB	5'11, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8703	13	23.0	3.0%	2	0	0	2	0	0
Jaylen Dunlap (2013)	CB	6'1, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7951	12	22.0	3.1%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Caleb Day	DB	6'1, 200	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8722	12	14.0	1.8%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Eric Finney	STAR	6'0, 220	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7859	13	11.5	1.5%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Zepheniah Grimes	STAR					13	10.5	1.4%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Jevaris Little	SS	6'0, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7400	12	7.5	1.0%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Dillan Cazley	CB	5'10, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8360	13	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Davontay Kwaaning	CB	5'11, 190	Sr.	NR	NR	12	4.0	0.5%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Darwyn Kelly	SS	6'1, 210	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8306
James Crawford	FS	6'2, 215	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8500
Patrick Nelson	DB	6'0, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8459
Trenard Davis	DB	5'11, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8440

8. Petty and Thomas were play-makers

Yes, there were issues with big plays. Illinois allowed 12 passes of 40-plus yards, 94th in the country, but you can get away with allowing the occasional bomb if you're taking care of business the rest of the time. And with a strong pass rush and an aggressive secondary, Illinois did that.

Every cornerback returns, including two experienced players in Eaton Spence and V'Angelo Bentley. Bentley has recorded 7.5 tackles for loss over the last two years, which is just about as good as you're going to find, and Spence was solid.

Still, losing Zane Petty and Earnest Thomas III hurts a lot. Petty was a solid last-line-of-defense guy, and Thomas, playing the hybrid STAR position, was both a decent defensive back and Illinois' best blitzer. He led the team in sacks and tackles for loss, which is absurd for a safety, even a nickel back/outside linebacker type.

Illinois is not without experience at safety: both Taylor Barton and Clayton Fejedelem got plenty of experience last season, and Fejedelem's story -- NAIA star decides to see if he can cut it in FBS, walks on, and plays a large role in his first year eligible -- makes him an easy guy to root for. Still, they didn't make nearly as many plays as Petty and Thomas did, and without that disruptive presence, Illinois might need an improved run defense just to break even.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Justin DuVernois			77	44.0	7	17	20	48.1%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Taylor Zalewski	6'3, 220	Sr.	51	62.6	28	2	54.9%
David Reisner	6'0, 195	Jr.	10	62.4	5	1	50.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
David Reisner	6'0, 195	Jr.	22-24	5-7	71.4%	1-4	25.0%
Taylor Zalewski	6'3, 220	Sr.	16-18	3-4	75.0%	0-2	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
V'Angelo Bentley	KR	5'10, 190	Sr.	32	21.6	0
Darius Mosely	KR	5'11, 190	Jr.	4	10.8	0
V'Angelo Bentley	PR	5'10, 190	Sr.	12	10.3	0
Darius Mosely	PR	5'11, 190	Jr.	7	7.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	51
Field Goal Efficiency	121
Punt Return Efficiency	21
Kick Return Efficiency	21
Punt Efficiency	40
Kickoff Efficiency	72
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	45

9. A place-kicking mess

Illinois had most of the components of a good special teams unit. The return game was strong, which was customary for most Big Ten teams, but unlike a lot of the conference, Illinois had solid kick coverage as well. All UI needed was a decent place-kicker to give the Illini one of the best special teams units in the conference.

Instead, UI had one of the 10 worst field goal efficiency ratings in the country. Granted, a lot of that came from longer kicks -- Illinois was just 1-for-6 on field goals over 40 yards, which are a bit of a luxury in college football -- but David Reisner and Taylor Zalewski also combined to miss four PATs and three field goals under 40 yards.

This didn't cost them as much as it could have; they were still 4-0 in one-possession games, after all. But those close wins were a grave necessity for Illinois, and having a shaky kicker is playing with fire.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rk
4-Sep	Kent State	107
12-Sep	Western Illinois	NR
19-Sep	at North Carolina	70
26-Sep	Middle Tennessee	87
3-Oct	Nebraska	30
10-Oct	at Iowa	63
24-Oct	Wisconsin	25
31-Oct	at Penn State	45
7-Nov	at Purdue	84
14-Nov	Ohio State	1
21-Nov	at Minnesota	37
28-Nov	Northwestern	71

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-5.1% (69)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	57 / 54
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-3 / 0.3
2014 TO Luck/Game	-1.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (6, 8)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	5.1 (0.9)

10. Start fast

When you've got negative story lines, the most constructive thing you can possibly do is win early. All of the offseason narratives get folded into, or taken out of, wins and losses. If Illinois wins at North Carolina and is 4-0 when Nebraska comes to town on October 3, Cvijanovic and his accusations disappear, whether they should or not.

On the flipside, any early slip-up will be given double meaning. And narratives aside, another bowl bid depends on a fast start. Illinois plays six teams that ranked worse than 70th in last year's F/+ rankings, and four come in the first four games of the year. Start 2-2, and you're probably not getting to 6-6.

When healthy, Wes Lunt has shown high upside, and even if he's missing Mike Dudek, he's still got Josh Ferguson, Geronimo Allison, and some high-upside youngsters at his disposal. And the defense might be able to shore up its weaknesses enough to offset the loss of a couple of strengths.

Tim Beckman can still succeed in Champaign. If Illinois can maintain the top-40 or top-50 form that it showed for half of last season, there are wins on the schedule. And if nothing serious becomes of Cvijanovic's accusations, then there is a pathway out of the hole Beckman dug himself.

But it takes two significant ifs for Beckman to survive.