Northwestern football's breakthrough was years ago. When's the follow up?

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1. Wildcard Wildcats?

Pat Fitzgerald has come full circle in record time. He has been everything a coach can be: overachiever and disappointment, candidate for bigger jobs and coach whose seat might be getting hotter, young coach with energy and stodgy coach with old values, close-game whiz and close-game loser.

When you've been at a job for nine years, your reputation will change, but Fitzgerald's changes have all occurred within the last three years.

In 2012, the future looked almost as bright as it ever had; the Wildcats won 10 games and finished 32nd in the F/+ rankings, one spot higher than they placed in the late Randy Walker's final season, 2005. Recruiting was picking up, and NU was combining sturdy play with spectacular special teams.

The next two seasons, Northwestern won 10 games combined. The offense disintegrated. Special teams was as bad in 2014 as it was good in 2012. The defense gave the Wildcats a shot at a bowl, but an end-of-season egg against an in-state rival prevented that.

The sudden shifts are making it difficult to figure out what might come next. In 2015, the offense must replace its quarterback, two leading receivers, and three two-year starters on the line. But these starters were part of a terribly disappointing unit. Most of the pieces of an exciting run defense return, and the secondary is loaded with experience.

At the same time, a bad offense that becomes less experienced doesn't leave you overflowing with optimism, and the defense must replace two stalwart linebackers from a unit that was well-organized.

You can spin these things however you choose, and it makes Northwestern an awfully big wildcard. Then again, NU has had almost the same F/+ rating for five of the last six years, so maybe the Wildcats aren't a wildcard at all:

2. The all-important class of 2014

According to the 247Sports Composite, Wildcats recruiting had improved incrementally for four consecutive years until sliding this past February.

At 47th, the 2014 class was the best of the bunch. And if depth chart projections are any indication, it may be the class with which the Fitzgerald era sinks or swims.

Quarterback Clayton Thorson might win the starting job this year. Justin Jackson rushed for 1,187 yards as a true freshman last fall. Solomon Vault was a special teams bright spot while pitching in 20 carries and 10 targets. Garrett Dickerson is the superback (a tight end/fullback hybrid unique to NU) of the future. Blake Hance and Tommy Doles could have a role to play on the offensive line. Defensive ends Xavier Washington and Ben Oxley could be major role players in either 2015 or 2016. Linebacker Nate Hall could be part of the 2015 rotation. Cornerback Parrker Westphal, the most highly touted defender, could start soon. Punter Hunter Niswander will have a major say in whether NU's special teams goes from liability to strength.

A single class is only going to have so much of an impact, but the yields of the 2014 crop are already starting to work their way into every unit. That isn't guaranteed to be a good thing, but it does hint at a major impact in 2016 or 2017. And if the Wildcats rebound in 2015, the class of 2014 might be why.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 71
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	California	65	24-31	L	29%	-13.1	19%
6-Sep	Northern Illinois	69	15-23	L	46%	-2.4	28%
20-Sep	Western Illinois	NR	24-7	W	59%	5.1	99%
27-Sep	at Penn State	45	29-6	W	94%	36.0	100%
4-Oct	Wisconsin	25	20-14	W	79%	18.7	72%
11-Oct	at Minnesota	37	17-24	L	48%	-0.9	35%
18-Oct	Nebraska	30	17-38	L	15%	-24.6	0%
1-Nov	at Iowa	63	7-48	L	3%	-43.1	0%
8-Nov	Michigan	54	9-10	L	26%	-14.8	11%
15-Nov	at Notre Dame	34	43-40	W	41%	-5.0	22%
22-Nov	at Purdue	84	38-14	W	75%	15.4	97%
29-Nov	Illinois	78	33-47	L	7%	-33.7	1%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	21.1	111	25.0	45
Points Per Game	23.0	101	25.2	48

3. From decent to awful

The percentile chart above is a mountain range. Northwestern started slowly in tight losses to Cal and NIU but rebounded by looking fine against WIU, crushing Penn State, and upsetting Wisconsin. The offense wasn't doing serious damage (yards per play against WIU, PSU, and Wisconsin: 4.8), but the defense looked downright awesome (total points allowed in those three games: 27).

The defense would run out of steam as injuries and lack of offense took their toll. Only one of six regulars on the defensive line and two of six in the secondary played in all 12 games, starting middle linebacker Collin Ellis played only six, and key safety Ibraheim Campbell missed four games in the middle of the year.

The defense allowed at least 5.8 yards per play in five of its last eight games, and aside from an out-of-nowhere performance against Notre Dame, the offense never had much to offer.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 6 games): 59% (record: 3-3)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 6 games): 28% (record: 2-4)

Still, after bottoming out in an ugly loss at Iowa, it looked like the Wildcats were rallying. After fading for four consecutive games, they rallied for three straight, upsetting Notre Dame and whipping Purdue to get back to 5-6. But in a "winner goes bowling" home game against Illinois, with junior Zack Oliver starting in place of injured senior Trevor Siemian, everything fell apart.

NU's first eight possessions against the Illini: punt, three and out, three and out, interception, fumble, interception, fumble, three and out. The Wildcats trailed 26-7 at halftime (only a Solomon Vault kick return got them on the board), rallied to 33-25, then faded. The result: after five bowls in five years, they spent the holidays at home for the second straight postseason.

Northwestern played three games at a top-30 level and three like a bottom-20 team. That's ... quite a range. It's a sign of a young team, but aside from the running back position, the offense wasn't that young.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.68	128	IsoPPP+	77.1	118
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.6%	100	Succ. Rt. +	94.2	91
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	32.3	112	Def. FP+	99.0	77
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	96	Redzone S&P+	97.2	72
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.7		ACTUAL	23	-0.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	107	108	94	118
RUSHING	103	91	102	89
PASSING	78	111	78	124
Standard Downs		114	103	119
Passing Downs		100	72	112

Q1 Rk	84	1st Down Rk	115
Q2 Rk	98	2nd Down Rk	119
Q3 Rk	114	3rd Down Rk	117
Q4 Rk	102

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Trevor Siemian					228	392	2214	7	11	58.2%	31	7.3%	4.6
Zack Oliver	6'4, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8435	30	57	367	2	3	52.6%	2	3.4%	6.2
Matt Alviti	6'0, 200	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9114	2	4	0	0	0	50.0%	1	20.0%	-1.4
Clayton Thorson	6'4, 210	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9218

4. A new start, for better or worse

Trevor Siemian was one of those "it feels like he's been here for 17 years" guys, even though he wasn't really a full-time starter until 2014. He split time with Kain Colter for three seasons, often playing in stat-unfriendly times; he was a more sure passer than the mobile Colter and was therefore asked to make plays on passing downs.

He hinted at a pretty high upside; in the 18 2012-13 games in which he threw at least 10 passes, he produced a passer rating of at least 135 six times, and in the 2013 season finale against Illinois, he went 31-for-44 for 414 yards and four scores (passer rating: 179.5).

Still, Siemian was never consistent. And with leading receiver Christian Jones missing 2014 with injury and a true freshman getting most of the carries, Siemian struggled. He only once topped a 124 passer rating and fell below 100 four times. And in a cruel twist, what was becoming his best performance of the year (7-for-12 for 93 yards against Purdue) ended when he tore his left ACL.

Siemian was around a while, and the Denver Broncos thought enough to draft him in the seventh round, but the bar he set was not to high that it cannot be cleared.

Last year's backup, Oliver, returns -- he got the ball downfield better, but he did throw three picks in the crippling loss to Illinois. By most accounts, redshirt freshman Clayton Thorson has given plenty of glimpses of his mid-four-star upside. Still, he's a redshirt freshman, and he didn't separate himself from Oliver or four-star sophomore Matt Alviti. All three seem to have a shot heading into fall camp, and while my guess is Thorson, Fitzgerald and longtime coordinator Mick McCall could still choose experience and go with Oliver.

Whoever wins will have a decent set of options. Justin Jackson held his own in 2014, carrying more than 20 times per game as a 185-pound true freshman, fumbling only once, and hinting at solid efficiency and potential explosiveness. In the last three games of 2014, he carried 70 times for 426 yards (6.1 per carry) and five touchdowns. If Auston Anderson, another 2014 signee, is able to live up to his own recruiting hype, Jackson and his supporting cast could provide sturdy options.

At receiver, last year's top two are gone, but Kyle Prater and Tony Jones combined to average only 6.1 yards per target in 2014. Christian Jones, who missed 2014 after playing well in 2013, could provide a more reliable No. 1 option, and two senior efficiency options, superback Dan Vitale and former four-star Rutgers signee Miles Shuler, should be able to provide help as No. 2 and No. 3.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Justin Jackson	RB	5'11, 185	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9284	245	1187	10	4.8	4.5	35.9%	1	1
Treyvon Green	RB					72	319	0	4.4	6.0	27.8%	0	0
Trevor Siemian	QB					37	138	5	3.7	2.2	32.4%	4	1
Warren Long	RB	6'0, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8210	30	123	0	4.1	3.2	30.0%	0	0
Solomon Vault	RB/WR	5'10, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8394	20	81	2	4.1	2.4	40.0%	1	0
Zack Oliver	QB	6'4, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8435	12	31	1	2.6	1.7	33.3%	2	2
Matt Alviti	QB	6'0, 200	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9114	8	8	1	1.0	N/A	0.0%	1	1
Miles Shuler	WR	5'10, 180	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9258	6	24	1	4.0	5.4	33.3%	0	0
Mike Panico	RB					4	4	0	1.0		0.0%	0	0
Stephen Buckley	RB/WR	6'0, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7910
Auston Anderson	RB	5'9, 180	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8681
John Moten IV	RB	6'0, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8539

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Christian Jones (2013)	WR-Y	6'3, 225	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	NR	77	54	668	70.1%	21.4%	58.3%	8.7	41	8.8	95.0
Kyle Prater	WR-X					72	51	535	70.8%	16.6%	56.9%	7.4	-71	7.4	54.3
Tony Jones	WR-Y					69	35	323	50.7%	15.9%	58.0%	4.7	-122	4.7	32.8
Dan Vitale	SUPER	6'2, 235	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	62	40	402	64.5%	14.3%	64.5%	6.5	-81	6.5	40.8
Cameron Dickerson	WR-Z	6'3, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8301	48	25	325	52.1%	11.1%	52.1%	6.8	9	6.8	33.0
Miles Shuler	WR-X	5'10, 180	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9258	34	23	190	67.6%	7.8%	67.6%	5.6	-85	5.6	19.3
Justin Jackson	RB	5'11, 185	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9284	28	22	201	78.6%	6.5%	42.9%	7.2	-56	7.2	20.4
Mike McHugh	WR-Y	6'3, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8013	22	9	115	40.9%	5.1%	54.5%	5.2	-6	4.9	11.7
Austin Carr	WR-Y	6'1, 195	Jr.	NR	NR	16	7	100	43.8%	3.7%	37.5%	6.3	8	4.4	10.1
Treyvon Green	RB					16	11	78	68.8%	3.7%	62.5%	4.9	-53	4.6	7.9
Pierre Youngblood-Ary	WR-Z	6'3, 185	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8131	15	7	105	46.7%	3.5%	46.7%	7.0	14	6.4	10.7
Jayme Taylor	SUPER	6'4, 230	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8201	12	9	45	75.0%	2.8%	58.3%	3.8	-61	3.7	4.6
Solomon Vault	WR-H	5'10, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8394	10	6	31	60.0%	2.3%	50.0%	3.1	-43	2.8	3.1
Stephen Buckley	WR-H	6'0, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7910	8	2	23	25.0%	1.8%	87.5%	2.9	-8	1.9	2.3
Warren Long	RB	6'0, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8210	7	5	26	71.4%	1.6%	71.4%	3.7	-33	4.1	2.6
Garrett Dickerson	SUPER	6'3, 250	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9122	6	4	44	66.7%	1.4%	66.7%	7.3	-4	6.8	4.5
Mark Szott	SUPER	6'4, 260	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8364	3	2	29	66.7%	0.7%	100.0%	9.7	5	NR	2.9
Andrew Scanlan	WR-X	6'2, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8215

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	98.4	2.85	3.08	33.0%	65.5%	18.4%	85.8	7.2%	6.9%
Rank	83	81	87	117	81	51	89	108	55

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Brandon Vitabile	C					50
Jack Konopka	RT					27
Paul Jorgensen	LT					24
Geoff Mogus	LT	6'5, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8382	23
Matt Frazier	RG	6'4, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8313	16
Eric Olson	RT	6'6, 285	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8488	10
Ian Park	C	6'4, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8479	8
Adam DePietro	LG	6'5, 295	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8634	1
Hayden Baker	C					0
Shane Mertz	RG	6'8, 310	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8425	0
Connor Mahoney	LG	6'4, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8208	0
Sam Coverdale	OL	6'6, 275	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8544	0
Brad North	C	6'2, 280	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8510	0
Tommy Doles	LT	6'6, 270	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8532
Blake Hance	RT	6'5, 275	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8538
Jared Thomas	OL	6'4, 260	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8615

5. Plenty of shuffling up front

If you're going to lose three multi-year starters (combined: 101 career starts), you might as well lose them from a disappointing line. The Northwestern line was decent in two important categories -- stuff rate (avoiding run stops behind the line) and passing downs protection -- but didn't get a push in short-yardage situations. And it created fewer open-field opportunities for its runners than almost any line in the country.

Of course, your runners have to take advantage, and until Justin Jackson stepped up late in the season, NU didn't have a back who seemed to do that.

If Jackson's emergence was replicable, that could give the line stats a boost. And it won't hurt the depth chart will likely include seven juniors and seniors who have combined for 58 career starts. There are no former blue-chippers, but there are enough mid-three-stars that you should expect better than rankings in the 80s (83rd in Adj. Line yards, 89th in Adj. Sack Rate).

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.84	58	IsoPPP+	106.7	50
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.7%	47	Succ. Rt. +	106.0	42
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.5	31	Off. FP+	103.0	30
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.7	14	Redzone S&P+	112.0	26
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.2		ACTUAL	27.0	+3.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	54	48	48	50
RUSHING	72	47	57	40
PASSING	43	65	43	75
Standard Downs		41	49	34
Passing Downs		64	47	82

Q1 Rk	81	1st Down Rk	47
Q2 Rk	57	2nd Down Rk	41
Q3 Rk	12	3rd Down Rk	71
Q4 Rk	44

6. The run defense was more forgiving

Northwestern has only ranked in the Def. S&P+ top 50 three times in Fitzgerald's nine seasons, but after bottoming out from 2009-11 (they ranked 86th, 86th, and 95th, respectively), the Wildcats have rebounded. Despite an impressive load of injuries, the 2014 defense was the third-best of the Fitzgerald era, and a lot of the reasons return in 2015.

Ten of the 12 players with at least 2.5 tackles for loss return, as do four of the six with at least four passes defensed. Tackle Sean McEvilly was granted a sixth year of eligibility after missing most of the last two seasons with injury.

The 2014 defense was good at two things: preventing big plays on the ground (40th in Rushing IsoPPP+) and preventing completions through the air (43rd in Passing Success Rate+, 32nd in completion rate allowed). Patient offenses were able to move on the ground, but Northwestern was able to make consistent stops in the red zone.

Basically, the defense was good enough to make NU disappointing in close games -- the Wildcats were 2-4 in one-possession games, but the defense was the reason those were close. Considering the shuffling and total lack of support given by the offense, this was an impressive performance by Mike Hankwitz's D. And good health could mean the best ratings yet in 2015.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	106	2.59	3.77	37.9%	75.0%	18.3%	71.5	2.7%	5.6%
Rank	39	23	109	52	104	79	108	110	97

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Dean Lowry	DE	6'6, 280	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.7418	12	33.0	4.9%	8.0	4.0	0	8	1	0
Greg Kuhar	DT	6'3, 310	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8590	10	21.5	3.2%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Sean McEvilly (2012)	DT	6'5, 300	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8250	13	16.0	2.2%	1.5	1.0	0	1	0	1
Deonte Gibson	DE	6'3, 270	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8578	11	12.5	1.8%	3.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Chance Carter	DT					11	12.5	1.8%	1.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Max Chapman	DT	6'3, 265	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8243	11	12.0	1.8%	3.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Xavier Washington	DE	6'1, 235	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8015	11	11.0	1.6%	2.5	1.5	0	0	1	0
Ifeadi Odenigbo	DE	6'3, 240	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9680	12	8.5	1.3%	3.0	3.0	0	0	3	0
C.J. Robbins	DT	6'5, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7600	11	8.5	1.3%	1.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Connor Mahoney	DT					12	7.0	1.0%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tyler Lancaster	DT	6'3, 295	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8748
Ben Oxley	DE	6'6, 260	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8528
Fred Wyatt	DL	6'4, 270	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8504
Jordan Thompson	DE	6'3, 255	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8776
Joe Gaziano	DE	6'3, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8643
Trent Goens	DE	6'3, 245	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8590

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Chi Chi Ariguzo	WILL					12	84.5	12.4%	6.5	2.0	0	1	1	0
Jimmy Hall	SAM					12	49.0	7.2%	5.5	0.0	2	2	1	0
Anthony Walker	MIKE	6'1, 225	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8519	12	40.0	5.9%	9.0	1.5	2	3	1	0
Drew Smith	SAM	6'1, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8404	12	31.5	4.6%	4.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Collin Ellis	MLB					6	27.5	4.1%	1.0	1.0	1	2	0	0
Joseph Jones	WILL	6'1, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8270	6	4.5	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jaylen Prater	SAM	6'0, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8054	9	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Brett Walsh	MIKE	6'1, 220	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8285	5	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Nate Hall	WILL	6'2, 210	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8216
Cameron Queiro	LB	6'1, 225	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8304
Nathan Fox	LB	6'2, 235	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8585
Simba Short	LB	6'2, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8539
Tommy Vitale	LB	6'2, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8503

7. A better line protects worse linebackers?

The line returns almost everybody, and departed tackle Chance Carter is more or less replaced by Sean McEvilly. The secondary returns almost everybody and got a head start in replacing Ibraheim Campbell when he missed a third of his senior season.

But we shouldn't overlook linebacker. Stalwart Chi Chi Ariguzo is gone, as are Jimmy Hall and Collin Ellis. From a stat perspective, linebackers are the easiest players on the defense to replace, and the fact that Ellis got hurt midway through the year ended up being a bit of a blessing in disguise, as it gave Anthony Walker time to develop. He responded with an excellent stat line (nine tackles for loss, five passes defensed).

Still, stellar linebacking play likely made the line look better, and now three of last year's five LBs are gone. That might mean the line needs to improve just to offset regression. It probably will, but if we conclude the line is important for efficiency and the linebackers are important for preventing big plays, we could see more of an all-or-nothing defense.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Matthew Harris	CB	5'11, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8268	12	64.0	9.4%	3.5	0	2	7	2	0
Traveon Henry	S	6'1, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8428	10	55.5	8.2%	2.5	0	0	0	0	0
Nick VanHoose	CB	6'0, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8211	10	53.5	7.9%	3	0	2	10	0	0
Ibraheim Campbell	S					8	46.5	6.8%	1	0	3	3	4	0
Godwin Igwebuike	S	6'0, 200	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8788	11	42.5	6.3%	1	0	3	3	0	0
Kyle Queiro	S	6'3, 200	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8503	12	9.5	1.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Keith Watkins II	CB	5'11, 180	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8513	4	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Marcus McShepard	CB	5'11, 195	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8282	7	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jarrell Williams	CB					10	2.5	0.4%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Terrance Brown	S	6'1, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8256
Parrker Westphal	CB	6'1, 190	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9379
Trae Williams	DB	5'11, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8345

8. Give the secondary just a little bit of a pass rush...

The front seven had its moments, but Northwestern wasn't good at pressuring the passer. Ends Dean Lowry and Ifeadi Odenigbo combined for seven sacks, and the rest combined for just 10. Yuck.

With that in mind, a No. 43 ranking in Passing Success Rate+ says great things about the NU secondary. Campbell's play was important, but corners Matt Harris and Nick VanHoose and safeties Traveon Henry and Godwin Igwebuike (combined: 10 tackles for loss, eight picks, 20 break-ups) are all back, and that says exciting things.

As younger players like Igwebuike, Parrker Westphal, Kyle Queiro, Keith Watkins, and Marcus McShepard find their sea legs, I would be surprised if the secondary's level of play dropped. And if Hankwitz can figure out how to dial up more pressure, especially from the linebackers, this could be a solid pass defense.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Chris Gradone			65	37.9	5	12	17	44.6%
Hunter Niswander	6'5, 230	So.	5	36.0	1	2	1	60.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Jack Mitchell	6'3, 210	Jr.	54	57.9	19	0	35.2%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jack Mitchell	6'3, 210	Jr.	26-28	11-12	91.7%	3-6	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Treyvon Green	KR			12	20.1	0
Solomon Vault	KR	5'10, 190	So.	11	26.2	1
Tony Jones	PR			3	20.7	1
Miles Shuler	PR	5'10, 180	Sr.	3	14.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	110
Field Goal Efficiency	62
Punt Return Efficiency	32
Kick Return Efficiency	22
Punt Efficiency	124
Kickoff Efficiency	114
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	3

9. Special teams are so flaky

Special teams ratings are derived from small samples, college kickers, and the backups who make up coverage units. They are inherently flaky as hell, and Northwestern is living proof.

The Wildcats ranked fourth in special teams efficiency in 2012 and 110th in 2014, and I guess that can be spun as a positive -- it could turn back around in 2015.

Solomon Vault and Miles Shuler could make up a heck of a return duo, and Jack Mitchell appears to be a decent place-kicker. But if improvement happens, it will be because Northwestern fixed a pair of dreadful kicking/coverage units. NU ranked in the bottom 15 in both kickoff and punt efficiency. You think that might have made a bit of a difference in close games?

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk
5-Sep	Stanford	11
12-Sep	Eastern Illinois	NR
19-Sep	at Duke	54
26-Sep	Ball State	100
3-Oct	Minnesota	42
10-Oct	at Michigan	35
17-Oct	Iowa	57
24-Oct	at Nebraska	30
7-Nov	Penn State	37
14-Nov	Purdue	74
21-Nov	at Wisconsin	25
28-Nov	vs. Illinois	63

Five-Year F/+ Rk	0.4% (56)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	40 / 44
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	4 / -0.5
2014 TO Luck/Game	+1.9
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (5, 8)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	4.8 (0.2)

10. Close games galore

SB Nation's Kevin Trahan, a manager for Inside NU, sees a potential rebuilding year, and if a new starting quarterback isn't able to play at a high level, that is a distinct possibility. Alternatively, with better special teams, a more stable running game, and a more athletic defense, Northwestern might be able to improve.

But Northwestern has ranked between 66th and 76th in the F/+ rankings in five of the last six seasons (perhaps the sojourn to 32nd in 2013 was the exception that proves the rule), so we have a good idea where the Wildcats are going to land.

Northwestern is one of the more consistent entities, but the close-game record has produced a large range of results. The Wildcats tend to play a lot of teams of similar talent levels (last year's schedule featured seven that ranked between 34th and 69th in F/+, and 2015 features eight projected between 35th and 74th). As I've written before, Northwestern was 20-8 in one-possession games from 2007-10; regression has been swift. The Wildcats are 8-12 in such games over the last four seasons.

Close-game fortune will likely decide NU's fate again, and that could create an interesting future. There is depth and athleticism, and NU could take a step forward in 2016 and beyond. But if they suffer another losing season, negativity and rumors could impact upside.

Fitzgerald has won enough to keep the pressure off this fall (though if NU goes 3-9 or something, that could change), but the honeymoon stemming from the awesome 2012 has ended. He seems to be building a deep squad, but he might want to get back to 6-6 to stay on-course.