Jim Harbaugh's almost a sure thing, but Michigan's 2015 could go 2 ways

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. This is going to be fun

The University of San Diego was 37-33 in the six seasons before Jim Harbaugh arrived; the Toreros went 7-4 in his first year, then 22-2 in the next two seasons.

Stanford was 16-40 in the five years before Harbaugh arrived. The Cardinal went 9-15 in his first two years, then 20-6 in the next two, winning the Orange Bowl and finishing in the top five of the AP poll for the first time in 70 years.

The San Francisco 49ers were 39-73 in the seven seasons before Harbaugh arrived. They went 44-19-1 in four years, reached the NFC Championship three times, and narrowly lost Super Bowl XLVII to Jim's brother, John.

Harbaugh is a weird dude who says baffling, Les Milesian things -- that they both played for Bo Schembechler probably isn't a coincidence -- and might be getting weirder with age. And no one is guaranteed success when taking on a new job. If previous history correlated with future success, the last two Michigan hires would have worked out.

But Harbaugh is as close to a sure thing as you can hire. In just 11 years, he has raised the standard at every stop. He hires hungry assistants, builds an ultra-competitive environment, and then wins. He has coaching in his bloodstream, and he's been successful just about everywhere.

Hell, the Oakland Raiders haven't had a winning season since he was their quarterbacks coach in 2002. As a volunteer assistant, he recruited a large number of players on his father Jack's 2002 FCS championship Western Kentucky team. He almost reached the Super Bowl at age 32 with the Indianapolis Colts. He beat No. 1 Miami in his first start as a Michigan sophomore in 1984, then came back from injury and went 21-3-1 in 1985-86.

Sometimes it takes a year. Sometimes it takes a couple. But he has won as a head coach in three completely different environments, and it feels like more of a "when" than an "if" when talking about his prospects of winning at Michigan.

So ... when then?

You can spin your answer in whichever direction you want. Look at that coaching staff (defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin, offensive coordinator Tim Drevno, Greg Mattison staying on as defensive line coach, etc.)! Look at the loaded stable of running backs! The offensive line is actually experienced! And look at all those defensive linemen! And that secondary adds Stanford transfer Wayne Lyons and blue-chipper Jabrill Peppers!

Alternately ... look at the F/+ progression chart below: one top-20 team in seven years. Look at that quarterback situation. Look at the defensive ends lost. And congratulations on having an experienced line -- not all experience is good experience.

Michigan projects in the mid-30s, and that sounds safe to me. I respect Harbaugh and his staff enough to assume they'll put a decent product on the field, and if they can establish competence at quarterback (a big if), there won't be any positions with glaring needs. But after a three-year slide, projecting immediate success is tenuous.

With eight opponents projected worse than 40th and the two best teams on the schedule coming to Ann Arbor, assuming eight wins or so and a top-40 finish doesn't seem like a reach. With a shaky quarterback situation and no known go-to receiver, it would be foolish to expect more, but improvement is improvement, and Harbaugh should deliver.

And considering the personality he should do so with, this will be an entertaining fall of manball.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 7-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 54
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	Appalachian State	104	52-14	W	100%	61.1	100%
6-Sep	at Notre Dame	34	0-31	L	9%	-30.7	0%
13-Sep	Miami (Ohio)	103	34-10	W	93%	34.1	100%
20-Sep	Utah	29	10-26	L	31%	-11.6	4%
27-Sep	Minnesota	37	14-30	L	41%	-5.2	10%
4-Oct	at Rutgers	81	24-26	L	61%	6.5	60%
11-Oct	Penn State	45	18-13	W	79%	19.0	83%
25-Oct	at Michigan State	11	11-35	L	19%	-20.2	0%
1-Nov	Indiana	88	34-10	W	96%	39.8	100%
8-Nov	at Northwestern	71	10-9	W	78%	17.8	89%
22-Nov	Maryland	62	16-23	L	36%	-8.2	13%
29-Nov	at Ohio State	1	28-42	L	55%	2.7	4%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	26.3	82	19.6	18
Points Per Game	20.9	112	22.4	27

2. Big plays bail you out (or don't)

Michigan wasn't far from being a good team in 2013. Going 3-4 in one-possession games meant the Wolverines were just a few plays from either 4-8 or 11-1, but despite a total collapse late, UM still ranked just 36th in the F/+ ratings. That's not good enough, but it's not a free fall. With a new offensive coordinator, there was hope for a bounceback in Brady Hoke's fourth year.

Michigan's good performances were excellent. The Wolverines three times played at a top-10 level (92nd percentile or higher) and played at a top-30 level (77th percentile or higher) two other times.

But that's five games in a 12-game schedule. And following each great performance, regression was not far behind. Dominate Appalachian State, then get crushed by Notre Dame. Play fine against Miami (Ohio), then no-show against Utah. Paste Indiana, then barely survive Northwestern and lose to Maryland.

Of course, the reasons for the sudden regression become clearer when you look at the opponents.

• Average Percentile Performance (vs. F/+ Top 40): 31% (record: 0-5)
• Average Percentile Performance (vs. rest): 78% (record: 5-2)

The Michigan offense didn't have many big plays. And with a sketchy line and a high-upside, low-downside (and eventually injured) quarterback, the Wolverines couldn't sustain drives against good defenses.

Michigan played eight games against teams with top-50 defenses according to Def. S&P+ and four teams that ranked 86th or worse. You would expect the Wolverines to do better against the lesser defenses, but the difference was stark.

• Michigan Offense (vs. Def. S&P+ top 50): 4.4 yards per play, 13.4 points per game
• Michigan Offense (vs. other defenses): 7.2 yards per play, 36 points per game

The defense fared well, sans the Rutgers, Michigan State, and Ohio State games, but the offense couldn't maintain any sort of efficiency against good defenses, and without big plays, the Wolverines found themselves either involved in a defensive slog or getting blown out.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.74	118	IsoPPP+	89.0	97
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.2%	82	Succ. Rt. +	108.5	36
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.6	80	Def. FP+	103.0	33
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	100	Redzone S&P+	104.2	56
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.9		ACTUAL	26	+4.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	115	74	42	97
RUSHING	64	62	41	78
PASSING	112	84	48	99
Standard Downs		57	23	77
Passing Downs		111	91	118

Q1 Rk	49	1st Down Rk	62
Q2 Rk	70	2nd Down Rk	41
Q3 Rk	86	3rd Down Rk	111
Q4 Rk	52

3. The Harbaugh Way

Offensive coordinator Tim Drevno was a 10-year assistant at Montana State, UNLV, San Jose State, and Idaho before connecting with Harbaugh at San Diego. He was the Toreros' offensive coordinator, then followed Harbaugh to Stanford (2007-10) and San Francisco (2011-13). After a year as USC's run game coordinator and OL coach, he reconnected. He doesn't have a ton of coordinator experience, but good things tend to happen when Harbaugh and Drevno work together.

Passing game coordinator Jedd Fisch was Al Golden's offensive coordinator for two years at Miami and led offenses that ranked 27th and 31st in Off. S&P+. Like Harbaugh and Drevno, he's got a unique mix of college and pro experience; his last five employers before Michigan: Denver (NFL), Minnesota (NCAA), Seattle (NFL), Miami (NCAA), and Jacksonville (NFL).

Running backs coach Tyrone Wheatley's last two: Syracuse (NCAA) and Buffalo (NFL). Tight ends coach Jay Harbaugh's: Oregon State (NCAA) and Baltimore (NFL).

Catching a trend?

Harbaugh crafted a staff in his own image, and the Harbaugh Way should eventually work.

So what is the Harbaugh Way? Allow Ian Boyd to explain.

He was the one who popularized the power-coast offense. He used that notoriety as a launching pad into the NFL, where he then helped bring collegiate pistol-option strategies into the pro game.

At heart, Harbaugh is a quarterbacks coach with a West Coast passing game. He relies on concepts with horizontal and vertical stretches to create clear reads for his signal caller. Many of these concepts require a great receiver at the Y position, but unlike at many programs, Harbaugh's system won't allow him to just move a good receiver inside.

Why? Because you can't go toe-to-toe with a loaded box if you put three or four receivers on the field. Harbaugh will use spread sets, but he'll always use tight ends, H-backs, fullbacks, or wingbacks so he can run the dang ball.

It would be easy to call the Harbaugh offense a "pro-style" attack and leave it at that. "Pro-style" has come to mean even more things than "spread" does. But Harbaugh's balance of power and space is unique, and he has helped to create a system that can do good things with or without an Andrew Luck.

That's good because, to put it lightly, he won't have an Andrew Luck in 2015.

SB Nation presents: The best of Jim Harbaugh since he took over at Michigan

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Devin Gardner					174	283	1896	10	15	61.5%	25	8.1%	5.6
Shane Morris	6'3, 209	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9674	14	40	128	0	3	35.0%	1	2.4%	3.0
Wilton Speight	6'6, 235	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8728
Jake Rudock (Iowa)	6'3, 208	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8560	213	345	2436	16	5	61.7%	18	5.0%	6.4
Zach Gentry	6'7, 230	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9228
Alex Malzone	6'2, 218	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8984

4. Wanted: a quarterback

Shane Morris can still be saved. That he finished the spring as Michigan's No. 1 QB isn't an admission that the Wolverines are punting on 2015. Still, it's difficult to imagine how his first two years as a future golden boy could have gone much worse.

Morris has thrown a pass in eight college games. He completed at least 50 percent in three -- 4-for-6 against CMU, 3-for-5 against Appalachian State, and 24-for-38 against Kansas State. He went a combined 11-for-32 for 91 yards and two picks against Utah and Minnesota. His passer rating was 46.9, beyond dismal. He's known mostly as the guy who suffered a likely concussion against Minnesota but was kept in the game.

If Morris is able to lead an eight-win campaign, he will be the rare blue-chip underdog story. But he'll have to fend off a diverse cast to win the job. Jake Rudock is transferring in as the prototype high-floor guy from Iowa, and four-star true freshmen Zach Gentry and Alex Malzone are the direct opposite: all potential, no production. Rudock's presence will ensure competence, but we'll see how high the bar can be set after a few frustrating years.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
De'Veon Smith	RB	5'11, 228	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9151	108	519	6	4.8	5.4	34.3%	0	0
Derrick Green	RB	5'11, 234	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9867	82	471	3	5.7	8.5	34.1%	0	0
Devin Gardner	QB					73	426	4	5.8	4.6	49.3%	5	3
Drake Johnson	RB	6'0, 207	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8441	60	361	4	6.0	4.6	48.3%	1	0
Justice Hayes	RB					48	213	0	4.4	3.2	39.6%	0	0
Ty Isaac (USC)	RB	6'3, 225	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9732	40	236	2	5.9	6.0	42.5%	NR	NR
Dennis Norfleet	WR	5'7, 168	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9203	9	64	0	7.1	5.1	55.6%	2	0
Shane Morris	QB	6'3, 209	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9674	8	32	0	4.0	12.0	25.0%	3	2
Wyatt Shallman	FB	6'3, 244	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8953
Karan Higdon	RB	5'10, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8715

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Devin Funchess	WR					100	62	733	62.0%	32.5%	53.0%	7.3	-22	7.4	108.1
Amara Darboh	WR	6'2, 216	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9150	67	36	473	53.7%	21.8%	47.8%	7.1	22	7.4	69.8
Jake Butt	TE	6'6, 248	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9258	29	21	211	72.4%	9.4%	72.4%	7.3	-37	6.7	31.1
Jehu Chesson	WR	6'3, 207	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8650	24	14	154	58.3%	7.8%	62.5%	6.4	-19	6.5	22.7
Dennis Norfleet	WR	5'7, 168	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9203	22	15	111	68.2%	7.1%	86.4%	5.0	-68	6.0	16.4
Justice Hayes	RB					16	11	65	68.8%	5.2%	37.5%	4.1	-66	3.6	9.6
Freddy Canteen	WR	6'1, 185	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8928	13	5	22	38.5%	4.2%	69.2%	1.7	-46	2.0	3.2
Joe Kerridge	FB	6'0, 249	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	NR	7	6	53	85.7%	2.3%	85.7%	7.6	-16	5.1	7.8
Khalid Hill	TE	6'2, 252	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8575	7	4	37	57.1%	2.3%	57.1%	5.3	-12	5.3	5.5
A.J. Williams	TE	6'6, 285	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8934	6	4	33	66.7%	1.9%	50.0%	5.5	-15	5.5	4.9
De'Veon Smith	RB	5'11, 228	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9151	5	3	26	60.0%	1.6%	60.0%	5.2	-11	5.0	3.8
Da'Mario Jones	WR	6'2, 199	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8510	2	1	11	50.0%	0.6%	50.0%	5.5	-2	6.3	1.6
Drake Harris	WR	6'4, 174	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9663
Ian Bunting	TE	6'7, 243	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8904
Chase Winovich	TE	6'3, 230	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8938
Maurice Ways	WR	6'4, 205	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8687
Brian Cole II	WR	6'2, 200	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9613
Tyrone Wheatley Jr.	TE	6'6, 260	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8953

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	104.9	2.73	3.72	40.0%	71.9%	19.3%	98.1	7.1%	7.7%
Rank	50	94	24	55	32	67	72	107	72

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Graham Glasgow	C	6'6, 303	Sr.	NR	NR	24
Kyle Kalis	RG	6'5, 292	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9753	17
Jack Miller	C					16
Mason Cole	LT	6'5, 287	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9408	12
Ben Braden	LG	6'6, 331	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8803	12
Erik Magnuson	RT	6'6, 296	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9594	11
Joey Burzynski	RG					2
Patrick Kugler	C	6'5, 297	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9696	0
Logan Tuley-Tillman	RT	6'7, 309	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9268	0
Blake Bars	LG	6'5, 281	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8646	0
Chris Fox	RG	6'6, 303	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9472	0
David Dawson	LG	6'4, 309	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9537	0
Dan Samuelson	RG	6'5, 289	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8755	0
Juwann Bushell-Beatty	RT	6'6, 319	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8887
Grant Newsome	OL	6'7, 280	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9074

5. The line made strides

Ranking 118th in Adj. Line Yards, 111th in opportunity rate, 120th in power success rate, 126th in stuff rate, 112th in Adj. Sack Rate. Michigan's 2013 line stats were mind-blowing. With an All-American at left tackle (Taylor Lewan) and four- and five-stars filling nearly every spot, Michigan put together one of the worst line performances you'll ever see.

(For a good look at Michigan's collapse, check out this MGoBlog post.)

With new running backs and a new coordinator, the stats improved last fall, just in time for the passing game to collapse. The line started with just 34 career starts but improved to 50th in Adj. Line Yards and 72nd in Adj. Sack Rate. Considering the level of recruiting, this isn't great, but you can only improve so much in one year.

With Drevno and even more experience -- five guys with starting experience, 76 career starts -- one can assume more improvement.

And if the line can give backs De'Veon Smith, Derrick Green, Drake Johnson, and Ty Isaac open-field opportunities, last year's big-play issues may be history. Smith, Green, and Isaac (as a USC freshman) have all posted decent average yards per highlight opportunity (a carry that gain at least five yards); they just didn't get enough chances.

Even if Drake Johnson struggles to get up to speed following his late-season ACL injury, the trio gives Michigan three big, speedy backs with which to pound away, and in former four-star recruit Wyatt Shallman, the Wolverines have a potentially unique weapon to line up at fullback, H-back, etc.

They've got the requisite tight ends (Jake Butt, two others with experience, and a total of four former four-stars) and big receivers. If they have a solid line and a competent quarterback, the manball ethos should take shape.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.74	9	IsoPPP+	124.5	13
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.5%	44	Succ. Rt. +	108.9	35
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.0	42	Off. FP+	102.0	38
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.0	33	Redzone S&P+	110.9	28
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	11.3		ACTUAL	10.0	-1.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	7	24	32	13
RUSHING	15	8	18	6
PASSING	19	45	59	33
Standard Downs		22	33	15
Passing Downs		34	41	30

Q1 Rk	11	1st Down Rk	21
Q2 Rk	21	2nd Down Rk	11
Q3 Rk	35	3rd Down Rk	20
Q4 Rk	35

6. Lose a lot, return a lot

Michigan's offensive struggles prevented us from noticing how good the Wolverine defense was. They finished 18th in Def. S&P+ -- they ranked between 12th and 27th in all four years of the Hoke/Mattison era -- and did a nice job of stuffing the run on standard downs and attacking the passer on passing downs. There were glitches; if the pass rush didn't get to the quarterback on second- or third-and-long, said QB was finding an open receiver. Plus, short yardage wasn't a strength.

Still, this was a sound defense that prevented big plays and made stops in the red zone.

As I mentioned in this year's Maryland preview, you can come up with two drastically different perceptions by focusing on either who a unit returns or who it lost. The Wolverines must replace ends Frank Clark and Brennen Beyer (combined: 21 TFLs, 10 sacks), stalwart middle linebacker Jake Ryan (14 TFLs, four passes defensed), and solid DBs Raymon Taylor and Blake Countess.

Ryan was the quarterback, and Clark and Beyer provided the passing downs pressure that was so important. Regression possible!

Still, Michigan returns virtually everybody else. The Wolverines have one of the deepest sets of run-stuffing linemen in the league, they return four senior linebackers, and they add Stanford transfer Wayne Lyons and safety Jabrill Peppers (a former five-star who missed nine games) to an already experienced secondary.

And they added former Florida defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin while retaining Greg Mattison, now the defensive line coach. They might have lost the heartbeat, but it would be a shock if this wasn't another top-30 defense.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	121	2.52	2.82	32.7%	71.1%	24.1%	122.5	4.9%	12.2%
Rank	9	19	30	12	89	14	31	57	5

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Frank Clark	DE					10	35.5	5.7%	13.5	4.5	0	2	0	0
Brennen Beyer	DE					12	25.0	4.0%	7.5	5.5	0	0	0	0
Mario Ojemudia	RUSH	6'3, 252	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9085	12	24.5	3.9%	7.5	3.5	0	1	0	0
Ryan Glasgow	NT	6'6, 303	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	NR	12	17.0	2.7%	4.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Taco Charlton	DE	6'6, 273	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9366	12	16.5	2.7%	5.5	3.5	0	0	0	0
Willie Henry	DT	6'2, 311	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8438	10	16.0	2.6%	5.5	3.0	1	0	0	0
Chris Wormley	DE	6'4, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9428	12	15.5	2.5%	5.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Matthew Godin	DT	6'6, 287	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8871	11	6.5	1.0%	1.5	1.0	1	0	0	0
Ondre Pipkins	NT	6'3, 317	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9707	6	5.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Bryan Mone	NT	6'4, 325	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9434	12	5.5	0.9%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Maurice Hurst Jr.	NT	6'2, 281	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9039	8	3.0	0.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Henry Poggi	DE	6'4, 273	So.	4 stars (6.0)	0.9419	6	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tom Strobel	DE	6'6, 268	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9249
Lawrence Marshall	RUSH	6'4, 241	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.9250
Shelton Johnson	RUSH	6'5, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8867

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jake Ryan	MLB					12	89.5	14.4%	14.0	2.0	1	3	2	0
Joe Bolden	WLB	6'3, 232	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9622	12	78.5	12.6%	4.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Desmond Morgan (2013)	MLB	6'1, 236	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8300	13	59.5	8.5%	4.5	1.0	1	3	1	0
James Ross III	SLB	6'1, 232	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9473	12	25.5	4.1%	3.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ben Gedeon	MLB	6'3, 241	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9135	12	14.5	2.3%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Royce Jenkins-Stone	SLB	6'2, 240	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9385	12	5.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Allen Gant	SLB	6'2, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8488	11	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Mike McCray	MLB	6'4, 242	So.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9371	11	2.0	0.3%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0

7. Plenty of components

Despite losing Clark and Beyer, Mattison still has plenty of toys. Ends Mario Ojemudia, Taco Charlton, and big Chris Wormley each recorded at least three sacks, as did man-mountain tackle Willie Henry. Michigan has size and proven play-making ability.

The linebacking corps already got some practice without Jake Ryan when he missed part of 2013 with a knee injury. Desmond Morgan was a strong contributor in 2013 but played in only one game last fall before injuring his arm. He was granted a fifth year of eligibility and joins a linebacking corps loaded with seniors. Morgan, Joe Bolden, and James Ross have experience, and while none has matched Ryan, this will be a solid unit. [Update: Bryan Mone is likely out for the season with a broken ankle.]

It's really damn hard to worry about the front seven.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jarrod Wilson	SS	6'2, 210	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9117	10	37.0	5.9%	1	0	0	2	1	0
Jourdan Lewis	CB	5'10, 176	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9453	12	33.5	5.4%	1.5	0	2	6	0	0
Raymon Taylor	CB					10	32.5	5.2%	1	0	0	6	0	0
Dymonte Thomas	FS	6'2, 191	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	0.9682	10	23.0	3.7%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Wayne Lyons (Stanford)	CB	6'1, 193	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9497	13	24.0	3.6%	0	0	0	3	1	0
Blake Countess	NB					12	20.0	3.2%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Delano Hill	SS	6'0, 204	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8953	7	17.0	2.7%	0	0	0	0	0	1
Jeremy Clark	FS	6'4, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8700	12	14.0	2.3%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Delonte Hollowell	CB					12	13.0	2.1%	2	0	0	2	0	0
Jabrill Peppers	FS	6'1, 205	RSFr.	5 stars (6.1)	0.9992	3	7.0	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Channing Stribling	CB	6'2, 178	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8625	10	6.5	1.0%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Terry Richardson	CB	5'9, 174	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9385
Ross Taylor-Douglas	CB	5'10, 186	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8811
Reon Dawson	CB	6'2, 178	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8494
Brandon Watson	FS	5'11, 189	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8513
Tyree Kinnel	FS	5'11, 200	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.9180

8. Experience and extra pieces

The secondary was the weak link. Opponents completed 60 percent of their passes despite a solid pass rush, and Michigan defenders picked off five passes all year, only three against non-Northwestern teams. The unit was decent at preventing big plays, but it was passive.

That probably won't stand with Durkin, who coached one of the nation's most disruptive secondaries in Gainesville. He will likely put corner Jourdan Lewis into position to make more plays -- he was easily the most aggressive DB, defensing eight passes and recording 40 percent of Michigan's picks. Plus, he'll have a couple of new options.

Stanford's Lyons, once a Harbaugh recruit, ended up in Ann Arbor as a graduate transfer, and a full season of Peppers could be exciting. He played in only three games last year and took a redshirt, but he might already be Michigan's best defensive player ... at least as long as he's well-fed. With Lyons and Peppers joining a unit that was already stocked with experience, it's damn hard to worry about the secondary, too.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Will Hagerup			53	42.9	9	6	16	41.5%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Matt Wile			52	63.0	24	0	46.2%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Matt Wile			28-28	10-11	90.9%	5-10	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Dennis Norfleet	KR	5'7, 168	Sr.	19	23.1	0
Dennis Norfleet	PR	5'7, 168	Sr.	10	3.8	0
Amara Darboh	PR	6'2, 216	Jr.	2	6.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	67
Field Goal Efficiency	52
Punt Return Efficiency	19
Kick Return Efficiency	118
Punt Efficiency	97
Kickoff Efficiency	30
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	106

9. New legs

Michigan broke even on special teams, with hit-and-miss returns, strong kickoffs, and iffy punt coverage.

Special teams were a Harbaugh specialty at Stanford -- in his last three seasons in Palo Alto, the Cardinal ranked 38th, first, and 37th in special teams efficiency -- but he'll have new legs. That might work (you never know with college kickers), but you might want to give Michigan a special teams mulligan this year. [Update: Return man Dennis Norfleet has transferred.]

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. S&P+ Rk
3-Sep	at Utah	39
12-Sep	Oregon State	70
19-Sep	UNLV	123
26-Sep	BYU	45
3-Oct	at Maryland	56
10-Oct	Northwestern	62
17-Oct	Michigan State	9
31-Oct	at Minnesota	42
7-Nov	Rutgers	79
14-Nov	at Indiana	81
21-Nov	at Penn State	37
28-Nov	Ohio State	2

Five-Year F/+ Rk	19.5% (29)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	14 / 11
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	-16 / -10.5
2014 TO Luck/Game	-2.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (8, 7)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	5.6 (-0.6)

10. Get ready for close games

Barring some strange clash of egos on the coaching staff or a complete collapse of the pass rush, the Michigan defense is going to be somewhere between strong and tremendous. And with a more experienced line and competent quarterback (the competent Jake Rudock means the position shouldn't be a disaster), the offense should creep back into the Off. S&P+ top 60.

So even if the offense doesn't surge, this should again be a team that ranks in the mid-30s or so. Here's where I point out Michigan only faces two opponents projected better than 37th.

The schedule is volatile; the two best teams (Ohio State, Michigan State) come to Ann Arbor, and four of the five projected between 37th and 56th play host to the Wolverines. Michigan could end up going 0-2 against the former and 1-4 against the latter and struggle to make a bowl ... or could go 1-1 and 4-1 and play on January 1. This schedule should create a wide array of potential outcomes.

Harbaugh is probably going to win big in Michigan. He's done so basically everywhere. That the Wolverines have gone 20-18 over the last three years creates a grace period, but goodness, can you imagine the hype next offseason if Michigan gets some close-game fortune and goes 10-2 out of the gates?