Memphis Tigers football pulled off a 3-year miracle. Now what?

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1. What now?

According to Sports Reference's SRS ratings, the four Memphis teams that took the field between 2009 and 2012 were among the Tigers' six worst since joining what is now FBS in the mid-1950s.

The Tigers' descent began in Tommy West's final season and picked up velocity during the brief, costly Larry Porter tenure (2010-11).

The squad Justin Fuente inherited in 2012 was dreadful and demoralized. From last summer's Blueprint for a Rebuild:

An FBS team is allotted 85 scholarships. Fuente inherited a team that had 50. His first offense returned three starters, but that's probably just as well, because the offense was atrocious.

'We had a long way to go from a physical standpoint. The overall health of our squad, from the emotional health to the physical health, it just didn't give us a chance. I felt like if I created a list of things to improve and presented it to the team, it would overwhelm them. And we needed to develop some trust with our kids. We had players who had had different position coaches every year through their time in the program.

'We hired good coaches, tried to bring in guys who I had some familiarity with. I tried to paint as realistic a picture as possible as to what the task was in front of us.'

When painting said "realistic picture," I doubt Fuente was telling prospective assistants, "We're going to move up to a bigger conference, and we're going to win that conference in our third year." Nothing about that sounds realistic. But the Tigers did it anyway.

According to the same SRS ratings, Memphis' 2014 squad was its best since 1983 and its second best since the 1960s. In 2011, Memphis' offense ranked 119th in S&P+, and the defense ranked 117th in S&P+. In 2014, those units ranked 78th and 23rd. The special teams unit was the second-best in the country. Memphis had the second-best field position margin in the country behind TCU; the Tigers tilted the field, pounced on offensive mistakes, and won 10 games for the first time.

Memphis! Memphis did this! The team about which I wrote this in 2011 ...

Talk about bad timing. EXPANSIONAPALOOZA™ got rolling last summer, the Big East is looking at expansion, and look! Memphis is available! Their basketball program is still on solid footing, they've got FedEx money at their disposal ... what could go wrong? Surely they're a strong candidate, right?

Oh. Right.

And this in 2012 ...

When an old stadium is hosting a winning team, it is "historical" and "well-seasoned." When it is two-thirds empty and hosting a depressing team, it is just decrepit.

... won 10 games and the AAC in 2014.

So now what? How do you follow up on this? Thanks to the departure of defensive coordinator Barry Odom and most of the first string from last year's stellar D, Memphis' personality might change. The second era of Fuente's tenure might be much more reliant on offense. The talent is as high as it's been in quite a while, and the depth at the skill positions is intriguing. But one would assume this is a bit of a reloading year.

Still, a potential AAC title game appearance isn't out of reach. Navy visits the Liberty Bowl, and a retooled Houston might not be completely operational yet. Another top-45 F/+ rating might be too much, but Memphis still has expectations that would have seemed patently ridiculous as recently as two years ago.

2014 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-3 | Adj. Record: 9-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 41
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
30-Aug	Austin Peay	NR	63-0	W	91%	31.9	100%
6-Sep	at UCLA	12	35-42	L	34%	-9.8	31%
20-Sep	Middle Tennessee	87	36-17	W	81%	20.6	100%
27-Sep	at Ole Miss	5	3-24	L	4%	-40.4	0%
4-Oct	at Cincinnati	47	41-14	W	87%	26.6	99%
11-Oct	Houston	73	24-28	L	40%	-6.0	46%
25-Oct	at SMU	127	48-10	W	69%	11.5	100%
31-Oct	Tulsa	117	40-20	W	64%	8.3	100%
7-Nov	at Temple	67	16-13	W	44%	-3.3	56%
15-Nov	at Tulane	93	38-7	W	65%	9.2	99%
22-Nov	South Florida	123	31-20	W	75%	16.1	100%
29-Nov	Connecticut	119	41-10	W	69%	11.5	100%
22-Dec	vs. BYU	46	55-48	W	66%	9.4	83%

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk
S&P+	26.7	78	21.5	23
Points Per Game	36.2	22	19.5	11

2. Two bad quarters

In the first 15 minutes against a UCLA team that won 10 games, Memphis punted twice, allowed a long touchdown drive and a 62-yard touchdown pass, and fell behind, 13-7. In the final 15 minutes against an Ole Miss team that was the best in the country for the first two months of the year, the Tigers got outscored, 17-0. In the other six quarters of those two games, Memphis was outscored by just a 36-31 margin.

Thanks to two quarters, these were the only two games in which the Tigers played beneath a 40th-percentile level. They fell victim to turnovers in an upset loss to Houston, and they needed help from an inept Temple offense to survive a trip to Philadelphia, but they established a high baseline for much of the season, and that baseline only rose.

• Average Percentile Performance (first 4 games): 53% (yards per play: Opp 5.1, Memphis 5.1)
• Average Percentile Performance (next 5 games): 61% (yards per play: Memphis 5.9, Opp 4.7)
• Average Percentile Performance (last 4 games): 69% (yards per play: Memphis 5.4, Opp 4.5)

The offense was hit-or-miss, but a good defense just got better, even including a 55-48 bowl win.

Of course, that emphasizes how important defense was. We'll see what happens after an offseason of retooling.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.92	31	IsoPPP+	109.7	45
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.7%	90	Succ. Rt. +	91.1	105
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	26.7	7	Def. FP+	103.0	33
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.6	44	Redzone S&P+	97.7	70
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.3		ACTUAL	20	-1.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	49	64	108	45
RUSHING	40	83	120	49
PASSING	57	52	69	50
Standard Downs		70	110	52
Passing Downs		55	90	43

Q1 Rk	59	1st Down Rk	66
Q2 Rk	39	2nd Down Rk	43
Q3 Rk	89	3rd Down Rk	52
Q4 Rk	66

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Paxton Lynch	6'7, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7900	259	413	3031	22	9	62.7%	15	3.5%	6.8
Jason Stewart	6'3, 205	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7757	3	4	45	1	0	75.0%	1	20.0%	6.6
Clay Holgorsen	6'1, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8201
Brady Davis	6'4, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8451

3. Just a little bit of maturation away

Paxton Lynch's full-season numbers were solid. The big quarterback from Florida, one of Fuente's first commits, combined accuracy (63 percent completion rate, 2.2 percent interception rate, 3.5 percent sack rate) with enough mobility (4.6 yards per non-sack carry) to force defenses to account for him. Considering he was just a sophomore, and considering he wasn't getting a ton of help from the run, it's hard to complain.

The next step for Lynch is moving past mistakes -- he rarely made just one. Against Ole Miss, he went 13-for-31 with a pick and four sacks. Against Houston, he threw three interceptions and lost a fumble. And against BYU, he threw three picks (including one of the worst pick sixes you'll ever see) and fumbled twice.

Take out those three games, and his completion rate rises to 66 percent while his interception rate falls to 0.7 percent. Granted, take out any quarterback's worst performances, and his numbers improve, but the difference between these three and the other 10 was stark. His median performance was high, but he was still capable of falling into a rut.

With the Memphis defense likely to regress, Lynch's offense must be consistent. That means more from the run, and that means quicker bouncebacks from Lynch.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles	Fum. Lost
Brandon Hayes	RB					195	951	5	4.9	5.4	34.9%	1	1
Paxton Lynch	QB	6'7, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7900	98	446	13	4.6	4.0	35.7%	7	4
Sam Craft	ATH	6'0, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8220	89	331	3	3.7	2.5	40.4%	1	0
Jarvis Cooper	RB	6'1, 250	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8386	75	378	4	5.0	3.9	44.0%	2	2
Doroland Dorceus	RB	5'10, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7994	47	237	4	5.0	4.7	42.6%	2	0
Tearris Wallace	RB	5'10, 215	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7556	14	53	0	3.8	0.9	50.0%	0	0
Mose Frazier	WR	5'11, 185	Sr.	NR	NR	11	68	0	6.2	8.3	36.4%	0	0
Robert Davis	RB	5'9, 175	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7906	10	81	1	8.1	8.1	50.0%	0	0
Roderick Proctor	WR	5'11, 165	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8153	7	-16	0	-2.3	N/A	0.0%	0	0
Keiwone Malone	WR					6	75	0	12.5	10.8	66.7%	3	0
Jason Stewart	QB	6'3, 205	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7757	5	35	0	7.0	3.3	60.0%	0	0
Jamarius Henderson	RB	5'11, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8451
Darrell Henderson	RB	5'9, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8059
Mechane Slade	RB	5'8, 160	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7973

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Mose Frazier	WR	5'11, 185	Sr.	NR	NR	62	47	506	75.8%	15.5%	58.1%	8.2	-46	8.2	61.1
Keiwone Malone	WR					61	46	596	75.4%	15.2%	50.8%	9.8	56	9.7	72.0
Tevin Jones	WR	6'2, 218	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	NR	54	33	442	61.1%	13.5%	66.7%	8.2	39	7.8	53.4
Alan Cross	TE	6'1, 245	Sr.	NR	NR	40	28	373	70.0%	10.0%	65.0%	9.3	40	9.6	45.0
Roderick Proctor	WR	5'11, 165	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8153	36	27	259	75.0%	9.0%	55.6%	7.2	-59	7.3	31.3
Adrian Henderson	WR					35	16	225	45.7%	8.7%	65.7%	6.4	17	6.3	27.2
Phil Mayhue	WR	6'3, 205	So.	NR	0.7000	28	15	242	53.6%	7.0%	71.4%	8.6	54	8.4	29.2
Sam Craft	ATH	6'0, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0.8220	28	15	83	53.6%	7.0%	50.0%	3.0	-105	3.0	10.0
Brandon Hayes	RB					22	16	119	72.7%	5.5%	40.9%	5.4	-70	5.0	14.4
Daniel Montiel	TE	6'3, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7585	16	8	124	50.0%	4.0%	68.8%	7.8	22	8.1	15.0
Anthony Miller	WR	5'11, 190	So.	NR	0.7900
Daniel Hurd	WR	6'2, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7600
Robby Young	TE	6'4, 255	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333
Tyler Kolodny	TE	6'3, 235	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7733
Greg McKillion	WR	6'5, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8141
Jae'Lon Oglesby	WR	5'11, 175	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)	0.8950
Tre Hamilton	WR	6'3, 197	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.8140
Tony Pollard	WR	5'11, 196	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8094

4. Got big plays?

The numbers are in Memphis' favor. Leading rusher Brandon Hayes is gone, but every other running back who touched the ball is back, and according to the 247Sports Composite, Memphis signed three three-star freshman backs, including Jamarius Henderson, one of the highest-rated players in Memphis' haul.

Hayes had nice explosiveness but didn't find the open field often; his backups, all freshmen and sophomores in 2014, lacked explosiveness. Memphis now boasts seven former three-stars at RB, and one assumes the potential depth is good enough to produce standouts. But there's plenty to prove.

If the run is semi-strong, the pass could be spectacular. Four of Lynch's top five targets return, and averaged at least 8.2 yards per target. Mose Frazier is one of the nation's better possession receivers, and while the loss of Keiwone Malone, the most explosive in the corps, could hurt, players like Frazier, Tevin Jones, Roderick Proctor, and tight end Alan Cross should assure that Memphis is able to stretch defenses from sideline to sideline.

Fuente landed four-star former Clemson commit Jae'Lon Oglesby in February, along with two other three-stars and a pair of big JUCO options. Sophomore Anthony Miller, injured in 2014, was the star of the spring game.

There is depth and efficiency, and the potential for explosiveness is there. But the big plays are all theoretical; a couple of guys still need to emerge for this offense to improve.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	85.6	2.53	3.32	38.5%	66.0%	21.2%	155.1	2.2%	5.4%
Rank	114	110	60	74	75	94	16	13	35

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Al Bond	RT					42	2014 1st All-AAC
Taylor Fallin	LT	6'6, 325	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7593	24
Ryan Mack (Louisville)	OL	6'5, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.8335	19
Tyler Uselton	LG	6'3, 310	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7583	13
Gabe Kuhn	C	6'4, 290	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7333	13
Nykiren Wellington	RT					12
Micah Simmons	C	6'3, 295	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8060	8
Michael Stannard	RG	6'2, 280	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7000	7
Tony Mays II	RG	6'4, 305	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7957	6
Zach Collins	RG	6'4, 285	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7644	2
Sam Thomas	RG					1
Christopher Roberson	LT	6'7, 325	Jr.	NR	NR	0
Patrick Winfield	LG	6'5, 280	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7633	0
Jace Neville	OL	6'6, 275	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7713	0
Tyler Jones	OL	6'5, 290	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8059
Trevon Tate	OL	6'4, 280	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8117
Drew Kyser	OL	6'5, 299	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8348

5. Wanted: continuity (and quality)

Thanks in part to a lot of quick passing, Memphis' sack rates were solid. But there were few redeeming stats when it came to Memphis' run game. The line allowed defenders into the backfield with regularity and didn't create enough opportunities to offset that. This put Lynch into uncomfortable down-and-distance situations.

Thanks to a couple of years of shuffling, Memphis finished 2014 with 10 players with starting experience. The Tigers lost three, including all-conference tackle Al Bond, who signed a UDFA deal with the Detroit Lions. But they do return seven more, and they added an eighth in Louisville graduate transfer Ryan Mack, who brings the line's career starts total to 92.

If Mack's presence and less shuffling lead to more opportunities for the backs, and if the backs are capable of taking advantage, the run will produce enough for the pass to thrive. Memphis might have a chance to account for defensive regression.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.78	31	IsoPPP+	116.3	29
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	35.4%	10	Succ. Rt. +	103.6	52
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	35.9	2	Off. FP+	107.9	9
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.7	18	Redzone S&P+	94.6	87
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	29.6		ACTUAL	31.0	+1.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	28	34	43	29
RUSHING	19	31	25	45
PASSING	63	35	62	24
Standard Downs		34	34	39
Passing Downs		25	65	12

Q1 Rk	63	1st Down Rk	35
Q2 Rk	51	2nd Down Rk	44
Q3 Rk	22	3rd Down Rk	33
Q4 Rk	61

6. Shoes to fill everywhere

In Barry Odom's final season as Memphis' defensive coordinator, his Tiger defense pulled off a rare combination of havoc and big-play prevention. They allowed 48 gains of 20-plus yards (23rd-best in the country) but still recorded 87 tackles for loss (30th) and 70 passes defensed (19th). They defended the run well on standard downs, then used a creative pass rush to pressure the quarterback while preventing big gains on passing downs. They were sound and exciting.

They were also experienced; experienced players run out of eligibility. Gone are two of the top three linemen, three of the top five linebackers, and the top four tacklers in the secondary.

Odom played a lot of players last year, and there are still solid upperclassmen in each unit -- senior end Ricky Hunter, junior end/OLB Jackson Dillon, senior linebacker Leonard Pegues, junior safety Chris Morley, and junior corner Dontrell Nelson have proved themselves. But you will struggle to maintain form when you lose eight starters and your coordinator.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	113	2.49	2.09	30.7%	82.4%	24.4%	80.3	2.6%	8.6%
Rank	23	14	2	6	123	12	98	112	43

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jackson Dillon	DAWG	6'6, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7656	13	38.0	5.6%	9.0	3.5	0	2	2	0
Terry Redden	NT					13	32.0	4.7%	5.0	1.5	0	0	0	0
Martin Ifedi	DE					9	27.0	4.0%	9.0	2.0	0	2	0	0
Latarius Brady	DE	6'2, 275	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8094	13	23.0	3.4%	1.5	1.0	0	2	1	0
Ricky Hunter	DE	6'3, 275	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7519	13	16.0	2.3%	7.5	3.5	0	2	0	0
Donald Pennington	DT	6'2, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7804	12	13.5	2.0%	1.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Ernest Suttles	DE	6'5, 250	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8325	13	11.0	1.6%	4.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Cortez Crosby	NT	6'1, 275	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7752	13	7.0	1.0%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Kendrick Golden	DAWG					6	2.5	0.4%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Isadore Outing	DE	6'4, 255	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0.8169
Mike Edwards	DT	6'2, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8081
DeMarco Montgomery	DE	6'2, 270	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7694
Jared Gentry	DT	6'2, 323	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8348
Emmanuel Cooper	DE	6'1, 250	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8156
Peyton Jones	DE	6'6, 236	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8038

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tank Jakes	WLB					13	82.0	12.0%	15.5	6.0	1	3	4	0
Charles Harris	MLB					13	44.0	6.5%	1.0	0.5	0	2	1	0
Leonard Pegues	MLB	5'11, 240	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7500	13	31.5	4.6%	6.0	2.0	0	0	1	0
Noah Robinson	LB	6'4, 235	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0.7882	13	21.5	3.2%	2.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Coleman	SLB					10	19.5	2.9%	4.0	1.0	0	2	1	0
Shareef White	LB	6'1, 226	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8458	12	16.0	2.3%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Genard Avery	LB	6'1, 245	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7785	13	16.0	2.3%	6.0	5.0	0	1	0	0
Wynton McManis	WLB	6'1, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7500	10	16.0	2.3%	1.5	0.0	0	2	1	0
Derek Howard	SLB					6	9.0	1.3%	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	0
Curtis Akins	LB	6'2, 210	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8291
Darian Porter	LB	6'3, 220	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7733
Joseph Prevost	LB	6'1, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8216

7. Still some attacking options

The new coordinator isn't exactly new. Galen Scott has spent the last six seasons in Memphis; he was Larry Porter's defensive co-coordinator in 2011, and he was most recently Fuente's linebackers coach and associate head coach. He and Fuente have worked together for quite a few years, and he brings a unique level of both experience and familiarity. Plus, the promotion allowed Fuente to bring on another experienced hand: former Utah State head coach and Tulsa coordinator Brent Guy is the safeties coach.

We'll see how much Scott changes, but if he wants to be retain Odom's front-seven aggressiveness, he'll have plenty of options. Sophomore Ernest Suttles was a three-star recruit and managed to record four tackles for loss in minimal action. Sophomore tackle Cortez Crosby and sophomore linebacker Noah Robinson hinted at disruption, and sophomore linebacker Genard Avery is a potential all-conference missile -- he had only 16 tackles, but five were sacks.

There is a potential depth issue at tackle, but there are a couple intriguing newcomers there, too.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Rivals	247 Comp.	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Fritz Etienne	SS					13	42.5	6.2%	2	0	3	3	0	0
Bobby McCain	CB					13	42.0	6.2%	1	0	5	4	0	1
Bakari Hollier	CB					13	37.0	5.4%	1.5	0	1	10	0	0
Andrew Gaines	CB					13	35.0	5.1%	1	0	3	6	0	0
Reggis Ball	FS	5'11, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	NR	13	31.5	4.6%	0	0	1	0	0	0
DaShaughn Terry	DB	6'0, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7889	13	19.0	2.8%	1	0	1	2	1	0
Chris Morley	SS	5'11, 192	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.7100	10	14.0	2.1%	1	0	0	4	0	0
Dontrell Nelson	CB	6'1, 170	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7873	12	8.0	1.2%	2	1	1	2	0	0
Dion Witty	DB	5'10, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0.7600	11	5.5	0.8%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Anthony Young	FS	6'0, 195	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0.7811	7	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Phillip Sumpter	DB	5'11, 195	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7894	2	2.0	0.3%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jamil Collins	CB	5'11, 170	So.	NR	0.7900
Tyler Charrette	DB	6'1, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8159
Arthur Maulet	DB	5'11, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0.8059
Ty Northern	DB	6'1, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0.7000

8. A blank slate ... sort of

Because of preference and a small handful of injuries, Memphis utilized a deep rotation. Eight linemen, nine linebackers, and eight defensive backs recorded at least 7 tackles (for comparison's sake: UCF, another strong defensive team, had six such linemen, seven linebackers, and eight DBs).

That at least slightly lightens the impact of losing eight starters, and it could make a world of difference in the secondary. Safety Fritz Etienne and three strong corners (Bobby McCain, Bakari Hollier, and Andrew Gaines combined for nine INTs, 20 PBUs, and 3.5 TFLs) are gone, but free safety Reggis Bell return, as do four other experienced juniors and seniors, all of whom made a few plays in limited action.

Plus, to shore up bets a bit, UM signed three JUCO defensive backs as well.

The Memphis defense appears loaded with potential, and there is just enough proven production to suggest that there will be no post-Odom nosedive. The key, of course, is balance: assuming the offense improves, the defense must limit its regression to the level of offensive improvement.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Spencer Smith	6'1, 175	So.	58	40.3	1	27	18	77.6%
Nick Jacobs	6'1, 190	So.	16	33.2	0	8	16	150.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Jake Elliott	5'10, 165	Jr.	87	64.0	50	3	57.5%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jake Elliott	5'10, 165	Jr.	57-57	15-16	93.8%	6-16	37.5%
Spencer Smith	6'1, 175	So.	1-1	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2015 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Joe Craig	KR			20	22.4	0
Bobby McCain	KR			13	25.1	0
Keiwone Malone	PR			34	7.7	0
Joe Craig	PR			5	21.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	2
Field Goal Efficiency	54
Punt Return Efficiency	6
Kick Return Efficiency	34
Punt Efficiency	5
Kickoff Efficiency	14
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	9

9. Some devastating legs

Good special teams can cover up problems. Some problems might shift from offense to defense, but a fantastic set of legs -- punter Spencer Smith, situational punter Nick Jacobs, and big-legged place-kicker Jake Elliott -- might be able to make sure that a glitchier defense is still working with long fields.

There is a desperate need for return men, which will make it difficult for Memphis to repeat its No. 2 performance in Special Teams Efficiency, but with this kicking game, special teams will still be a strength.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

2015 Schedule
Date	Opponent	2014 F/+ Rk
5-Sep	Missouri State	NR
12-Sep	at Kansas	99
19-Sep	at Bowling Green	98
24-Sep	Cincinnati	47
2-Oct	at South Florida	123
17-Oct	Ole Miss	5
23-Oct	at Tulsa	117
31-Oct	Tulane	93
7-Nov	Navy	44
14-Nov	at Houston	73
21-Nov	at Temple	67
28-Nov	SMU	127

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-24.5% (104)
2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk	85 / 89
2014 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin*	11 / 8.3
2014 TO Luck/Game	+1.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	11 (8, 3)
2014 Second-order wins (difference)	10.1 (-0.1)

10. The kings until proven otherwise

When one unit (defense) is superior to the other, then loses nearly three-quarters of its starters and its coordinator, it is pretty easy to assume a stark drop-off. I don't see Memphis replicating last year's No. 41 F/+ ranking in 2015. (2016? Different story.)

But the offense has enough experience, quarterback talent, and skill position depth to believe that improvement can offset a good amount of regression. And with a schedule that features last year's three best opponents (and two best conference opponents) coming to the Liberty Bowl, you can talk yourself into Fuente making a run at the first AAC title game.

Fuente's name got mentioned a lot during the winter coaching carousel, and if he continues to thrive, he will end up coaching a power-conference team soon. But he's back in Memphis for a fourth year, and every good season serves as infrastructure for what happens following his departure. The life of a mid-major is frustrating -- make a good hire, and your reward is having to make another good hire -- but after a brutal slide, Memphis knocked the Fuente hire out of the park.

Make another good choice, and the Tigers' turnaround could be sustained. The recruiting area is fertile, the facilities are improving, and if or when Fuente leaves, he's going to leave a tough, fast, disciplined team behind.

Fuente's not gone yet, though. He should field a team loaded with potential and athleticism, and this offense should be his best since he left TCU. Instead of suffering a post-surge hangover, Memphis has enough talent to play a serious role in the conference title race.